The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Draft Betting with Thor Nystrom

Episode Date: April 23, 2025

Just 48 hours remain until the Tennessee Titans are on the clock in Green Bay. Here to discuss the latest NFL Draft betting markets are Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, who are joined by Draft maven Thor Nystrom of Fantasy Life, whose infamous Thor 500 list ranks the draft's top 500 prospects with a player comparison for each one. Together they go through Thor's Big Board, discuss the potential for trades and mayhem, and speculate on longshot bets still worth making as the draft comes into sharper focus. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today, I'm joined. As always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional. professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, draft week, brother. This is, this is the best. We've made it. I'm actually in New York this week. The weather is turned. It is freaking gorgeous

outside. I've been here for the last couple days. And the streets are alive with questions about what are the freaking giants going to do in the draft? The good news, the first round of the NFL draft, is hours, hours away, 48 hours, updated draft props springing up across every major sports book. It's coming a little bit late, but like spring, it's finally here, joining us to talk. All things, NFL draft is a man so obsessed with it.

he ranks 500 prospects. He is a man who loves college football so much. You'd have to call him one of the original listeners of BBOC with Stucky and Colin Wilson. You can find his draft, Big Board, and rankings across every position at our friends at Fantasy Life, Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life. a man highly recommended by Matthew Friedman, who was on the show last week. And he said, if you're going to get anybody, get this guy. And that's saying a lot because Matthew, he doesn't like to send out flowers for anybody. We're not going to hold it against him that Matthew gave him the highest recommendation.

Welcome to the show, Thorneishtra. Thank you so much, Chad. It's good to talk to you, good to meet you. I've been a fan of years for a long time and excited to talk. about the draft today. Thanks for coming on, buddy. I love, I love your backdrop. I love that you have, you know, as many helmets as there are lakes in Minnesota. So that is fantastic. Before we get to it, like, can you explain how you collected all these FBS helmets? Yeah, I started, I started just picking them off on Amazon, you know, like, because when you start and you have 134 to go, you're,

you're just looking for the cheapest price points. And then at a certain point, you get enough. where then you have to have a spreadsheet of the ones to go. And then at a certain point from there, you're going to have to start getting individual and then searching them out on the web. A couple of them I had to go to the university bookstores to get a couple of those up there. Right?

Like when we, some of them are pretty rare, right? Like at the very bottom of the FBS. But we completed our collection about a year ago. We have now moved down to the FCS. I've completed the NFL one in one fell swoop. I just bought all 32 at one time. But now we're back. on the ground with the FCS helmets.

By the way, who's we? Do you have a partner in your collection? No, it's Thor Incorporated with the helmet collection. How much have you spent on those? Oh, gosh. Oh, yeah, a decent amount. But I will say, I got pretty good price points on most of the ones behind me. That was back at Amazon when you get those for 20, 22 bucks.

Some of them even like 18 with the shipping. So every time I could do that, you know, and I probably knocked out half for a little bit more of that FBS collection doing that. So some of it may be a little bit cheaper. But of course, there were some in there where you had to get more expensive because of how rare they are. So a decent amount. So it's fair to say, you've spent at least $2,500 on your helmet collection. Admirable. I hope you make at least that much betting on the draft this week. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. New Bet365 customers get $150. and bonus bets when you bet $5.

Sign up using promo code favorites. Deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. gambling problem call 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply.

All right. I mentioned it off the top. You do the Thor 500. You're ranking 500 prospects with 500 player comparisons. There are only 257 total draft spots. So you're basically doing twice the work. Why? Are you doing this?

Because I love it. I guess it would be number one. And then number two, I mean, like, the reason that I construct the board that big is because when I was a kid, I'm going to date myself. But like, we didn't have big boards on the internet. You know, I mean, when I was in elementary school, it was like when the internet was like invented, right? But I was obsessed with the NFL draft from the jump. And so the way I could get big boards would be on. on spring break when we are at the airport,

you go to the Hudson bookstore, you know, and then you're there, you're like looking for the biggest big board in the back because I wanted to fall along when the draft was going cross-off names. But you'd only get like 50-player big board in the back, 100-player big board, like never, never longer than that. And so it always frustrated me because by the time we get to the fourth round or so, certainly fifth round, all the names are crossed off.

And then the ticker at the bottom with the best available, it wasn't going fast enough for me. So I was like, why doesn't someone have a bigger big board than this, get you through the draft, but also gets you into the UDFA process. So that's why I went to 500 and then I love player comps. And I always wonder why there wasn't more player comps out there. Everyone comps the top guys.

What about the other guys? So anyway, I'm kind of a sickle with it, as you can see, take a lot of pride in my player comps, especially the ones way way down the board. So I hope people like them. Simon, I don't know about you. Every year at the draft, not so much for the NFL, but definitely for the NBA draft. my son and I will watch the NBA draft. We love it.

Absolutely love it. And I always make him pretend to give the speech where he's crying and thanking me when he's the first round pick, the way every other first round pick gets up there and answers the same question and they want to thank. Like, I might make him act

at least one of them out during the draft when we're watching it. The one thing I hate, so I'm going to pick a bone with Thor right off the bat. Yeah. I love them already, but I'm going to pick a bone. I hate the player comparisons.

Simon, I don't know about you, but like, because too often the player comparisons, they try to take players who are in the case of the NBA, but also the NFL, relatively young, relatively undeveloped, and they immediately go to player X who just won the MVP, or player X who, like, was a triple crown winner. as a receiver or this guy is going in Hall of Fame. It's so unrealistic. It makes absolutely no sense. Simon, I don't know if you have a thought.

Just as a as content, do you find value in the player comparisons? Or are you on my side and should we just tell Thor to get the fuck out of your life? No, I love player comps. It's why football is so stupid, Chad. These people need to fill air time. And to compare a guy who is, what, 20, 21 to an Hall of Fame, This is why we love football.

It's the best, especially when they come on there and it's always about, you know, comparing someone that, you know, the ceiling, best case scenario is that player and they never reach that potential, right? Or they exceed it in many ways. So I'm with you. It is stupid, but as someone that likes watching the draft, I love it. Because if it's your guy, you see it in your own mind, right? You're like, oh, I can see that comparison. If you're, this guy's been drafted to your team, but I'm with you, chat. I'm with you, Chad.

Every year it's gotten worse since they've started doing it. I feel like they started doing the mid-2000s. Now it's just absurd at this point. So, yeah, I would love your Thor's take on it. I clearly have a different take on player cons. You know, especially when I didn't have this full-time, going back to when I was a kid, right? I mean, you get a fourth-round player. You've never seen him before.

And a lot of times ESPN, you know, you start going on day three, the picks are quicker. And then it's the thing of like, oh, here's the last six picks. And maybe Mel could speak to one of the six guys. And if one of the six guys, you know, it wasn't the Viking on the list, I was always frustrated because it's like, I want to know that, you know, that a little bit about that player's game, that putting it in the 500 board with the comp and then just the basics, the height weight measurements, the RAZ score. I'm trying to put a totem in that person's head who's never seen that player before

of, you know, expected career progression and a guy that was similar, the size and the athleticism and hopefully playing style as well. You can't always hit all four of those with one bullet. I try to be as realistic as I can with those comps while keeping it, trying to have it so that audience members know who those players are. When I'm ranking a guy as a UDFA, not only can I not rank him to a Hall of Famer, I can't rank him to a guy who had a long successful career or any success, really. Right. And so you're, again, you're trying to get it as close to the career progression as possible, and I see you as a UDFA. That's where it gets interesting for me.

The college football sickos, Stucky and Wilson, you shouted them up before. Guys like that, you will appreciate down the board. My comps, I think, you know, college football sickos might appreciate those the most, but I'm with you guys. I try to keep it within the fair way as far as fair expectations with that. So I hope that criticism that you guys have a comps in general, I hope when you look through my board, you feel like I've addressed that. Do you have a, that was such a respectful answer when I'm trying to insult you.

First question off the bat. I appreciate the respectful discourse. Give me an example of a player comp that you've done in the recent past or throughout the years you've been doing this since you were in grade school and bored, that you're like, oh, I nailed that. It was like a whatever the pick was, whether it was a high pick and you got a, you comped to a really high level player or a mid-round pick, or by the way, UDFA undrafted free agent, like, give me an example of a player comp that you nailed.

I would say, and this wasn't even the best player comp, but it worked. And it fits this situation. I had Lamar Jackson as a top five overall player in his class. And I comped him to right hand of Michael Vick. And it wasn't perfect. You know, Vic had more arm strength. There's slight differences with them as, as runners as well. And Jackson was more polished as a passer coming out.

He played in the Earhart-Perkins system for Bobby Petrino at Louisville. Earhart Perkins is what Bill Parcells used, the Giants, their dynasty, and then Bill Belichick with the Patriots. Earhart Perkins is the offense that Tom Brady ran. But there was enough similarities there and a very unique player coming into the league. We hadn't seen many guys like Lamar Jacks. And so that was, I guess that would probably be one of my pet favorite ones. What about your worst?

That same class I ranked Josh Rosen first overall. So I can't really. Come on. Yeah, I'll take my flowers for Jackson, one of my best calls with the draft. And then, but then four slots ahead of it. I made one of my worst. So, yeah, you know, you make 500 predictions on outcomes that haven't occurred yet, which is what a 500 prospect draft board is.

You're going to be wrong a whole bunch each year. You're just trying to be right. right, more than wrong. Chad is very much like sports betting, you know. I mean, that's, you cannot get 100% of your bets, right? It's hard to even get 65 or close to that, right? You're trying to break the, what is it, 51.5% where you beat the Vig. Anywhere in there, right?

Like, we're trying to get 55, 56, 58% season over the whole course of it. With the valuation, it's closer to that. You're just trying to juice your odds at the margins and then just push it a little bit higher than your colleagues or in that case, the books. Here's what I love. Your latest big board, you got Travis and Hunter Hunter, number one overall. And the comp, Shohei Otani, I think is great and super creative and brilliant. But if someone is looking at this at Fantasy Life, how do you justify it and explain it

so they take it seriously that you're not just sort of saying, all right, here's a great all-around two-way player and there's no comp in football, so you got to go with a comp in baseball. How do you put it in context for football? Yeah, so with comps, the thing that I don't like is doing like four man's blank, a rich man's blank or this guy with, you know, I like to just have it be the name when I can. And so what I started with Hunter is like, okay, which individuals could I comp him to? And that's a very short list that you even theoretically could right deion sanders maybe uh champ bailey maybe charles woodson maybe none of them really fit though um and so then it was like all right i'm you know scrap that i'll go wide receiver Travis hunter odell beckham feel good about that corner

cornerback and you know then i was thinking through and then it's like this is getting too convoluted we've never seen something like Travis hunter before we just call him showy otani because it's the same sort of a thing. It puts the more accurate totem in the reader's brain of this is a two-way guy that is unprecedented for the sport. And so is it a little bit silly? Yeah. Is it the first time that I, on my 500 board that I have someone come to a professional

baseball player? Yeah. But this is a unicorn. You know, and I found it funny. And I've been calling him Shohei all process and a unicorn all process. And some of it is silly. But then Andrew Barry last week, Cleveland Brown's GM, goes up there at his press conference and repeatedly refers to Travis Hunter as Shoehawhey,

Joe Hohatani and a unicorn. So, you know, it's, I think they found what I found, which I'm not saying he copied me. I think he went along the same process of there's not a guy in NFL history that one-to-one I can comp this guy too. Listen, you've got to start taking some Matthew Berry lessons about marketing. He copied you. He read your stuff. He loved it.

He's like, this guy, Thor, I'm with him. He's got the power of the hammer. and I believe this is the absolute right comparison. So just to own it. We're going to go with that. I accept that interpretation. Tell Barry I gave you that idea. Done.

Okay. Yeah. So looking at your big board here, it is pretty interesting that, you know, you as a lot of other rankers have Sanders ahead of Cam Ward. And, you know, I've seen Mel Kuiper, you're speaking about, I think Joe Clatt even talked about having centers above them. What's your explanation for that? Is it just you like Sanders game to transition better?

into NFL or you just don't like Ward's game compared to Sanders game? Yeah, they're one spot apart of my Big Board 8 and 9. I do have Sanders 8 and Sanders was my bell to bell quarterback one. I do like him a little bit more and like him a little bit more in the translation to the NFL. Shadir Sanders' elite accuracy, elite placement, could put that ball wherever he wants it, consistently leads guys into space, does cool things with the ball, shading it away from defenders, giving his receiver the best of it, that thing of facilitating the yak-yardage with leading the receiver into space.

The other thing with that is he does not turn the ball over. So it's, it's a, those two skills absolutely 100% will translate to the NFL. The chain mover guy, the elite accuracy and is going to take care of the ball for you. Whereas with, he just super steady Eddie, shoot your standards. Whereas with Cam Ward, you get more of the roller coaster ride, Kim Ward for sure has the better arm. No question about it. And it leads to more explosive plays. that, you know, but that comes in conjunction with an elevated turnover rate.

Last year, Cam Ward three times Shadir Sanders' turnover-worthy play rate. And the way that I see this, my supposition, is that you cannot lower the turnover-worthy play rate and what you see with Camor with that without doing so in kind to his explosive play rate. This is the breadfar of corollary. You can't make him be more conservative without, again, in kind lowering the explosive plays. to get access to all those explosive plays, you have to live with the turnovers. So Cam Ward's team, you are going to experience more up and down.

There's going to be game flipping plays where he makes a throw that you haven't seen in a while and it's going to lead to an explosive play. There's also going to be times where people are putting their heads through walls because he threw an interception that flipped the game late. So, I mean, you're going to have to live with some of that kind of stuff. I do like the ceiling on that player, but I think there's always going to be that elevated turnover rate within his game. Have you, interesting. Oh, go ahead. Sorry, have you or would you take a position on his over

under of eight and a half? It's up to plus 285, plus 300, a lot of books. So do you think he's going to go under that or you think he's going over eight and a half pick? Plus 285 is it over? Under, plus 285. Oh, I would nibble on that for sure. I don't think that's a fixed outcome. I mean, the Giants, why would their ownership group have gone to Shadir Sanders last private workout, including with their coaching staff, if they weren't interested, definitely not saying the Giants will take him. But I think it's, it's, you know, the two outcomes before that, I think are fixed. Cam Ward 1, Travis Hunter, two. I think the Giants pick, it's like 85% Abdul Carter, but I do think you have to put 15% on shoot your same, something like that,

just because of the presence of that. And then I also think, you know, you look at some of the slots, you know, in between. There's a possibility not only for trade, but you know, you could see Shadir Sanders go before that. It'll be interesting to see with the Saints in the Nine Slat. Obviously, that number is nodding to that. Do the Saints get, are the Saints in on Shadir Sanders? We'll see on that. And then do they get skittish if they are teams trying to move, hop them?

So I, but at those odds, nearly three to one, I would nibble on the under. Here's what's interesting to me. You've got Shador Sanders comp, if we're going to go into the comp, so now I love him. It's Baker Mayfield. Yeah. Cam Ward is Jordan Love. The way you described Cam Ward and the high turnover probability and the difficulty and the difficulty in taking that down,

that to me feels more like Baker Mayfield than Jordan Love. I thought, you know, last year could be an anomaly with Jordan Love because he was injured for much of the year. So why the Jordan Lovecom for Baker Mayf for Cam Ward when Baker Mayfield is usually the guy who is more prone to turnovers. And the kind of play that you just described is akin to the way Cam Ward plays. Yeah, as you guys know, like prospects when they get into the NFL, the circumstance and the situation that they're in can obviously heavily influence them. it can make or break them. And it can also change somewhat their tendency as players, you know, through the scheme and through the coaching and whatnot.

When Jordan Love came out of Utah State, I believe his last season there, it was 12 to 14 interceptions. It was like he threw a bunch of interceptions. But you had the really cool stuff with the sidearm, the slots, getting the ball out quickly, had all the arm talent in the world. And he got his multiple years sitting in the NFL trying to work through some of that stuff, waiting his turn and the Green Bay Packer system now, there has been some inoculation of that,

but he has obviously improved with that. With that comp, I am nodding back to Jordan Love coming out of Utah State. With Cam Ward, you know, similar things you're going to have to work on there. But again, I think that turnover-worthy rate's going to stay high. But I just think the prospect of Cam Moore coming out of Miami is very similar to what we saw with Jordan Love

coming out of Utah State. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.

But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an

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I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay. Jenchian won. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface.

Because if she's serving, well, Good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Simon, right now, if you had to make a bet, would you rather bet on Baker Mayfield? Or would you rather bet on Jordan Love as a quarterback? Who are you more comfortable betting on?

we all know here on this show chat we're a baker show we love i was going to say to me it's baker no brain it's been good to us i'm not sure i'm betting on jordan lovitt without matt lafleur um but i just think that's an interesting comp i like what thor did here because you guys know you guys know how much i love the comps and now i'm all in and so i do not have to be intractable when it comes to my positions and opinions. Going back, Thor, to last year, even before J.J. McCarthy was drafted by Minnesota, you were all over J.J. McCarthy, one of his loudest, most public advocates. Explain what brought you to that conclusion. Do you still feel that way with him coming off the injury? For sure, I do to the latter. And to the former, people were just missing it with him.

early in the process. I got, you know, watch all the Michigan games live down the stretch when they won the national title. They faced a procession of just killer defenses. That's what a top 10 pick looks like, beating the, the Iowa's, the Penn States, the Ohio states, you know, and then getting into the playoff. Like I said, it was just sort of a murderous row of defenses, culminating in the semis against Nick Sabins, Alabama, Crimson Tideout, a nasty defense. And Michigan doesn't roar back without JJ McCarthy to advance the national title. And obviously, they whipped Washington once they got there. But McCarthy, a lead athlete.

He had a tight hamstring at the combine last year. He still ran the six fastest three cone of anyone at any position. He didn't do the runs there because of that hamstring. But at Michigan, they said his last known test were high four-fors. Kevin O'Connell said that he would be low four-fives, but however you want to see that, you see the mobility on the field. He makes people miss. One of the better on-the-run throwers that you will see,

he keeps his mechanics with him, no matter what, when he is moving behind. the line of scrimmage so he can access all three sectors of the field and he keeps his eyes down field so you'll see some really cool stuff with him uh creating out of structure in structure he was this wild stallion sort of a prospect by star when he went to michigan and then he played in the pro style offense for jim harbaugh the 12 personnel pro style offense that is very eerily similar to what kevin o'connell runs but in that system you had to learn to play within structure right so is this this potential out of structure virtue also of a prospect

that was broken to play in that, you know, within the concepts of that pro-style system. And by the end of his career, the third season, before his 21st birthday on the season where they ended up winning the national title, he was the best thrower of the ball, intermediate between the hashes in the country. He was also the best quarterback in the country on all the high leverage throws. You cut the numbers, third and medium, third and long, all those sorts of things. He had, you know, a good sample of those throws, and he was the most efficient and the best in the class. And by the way, against by far the hardest strength of schedule of any of those six top quarterbacks and in the highest leverage spots. Of course, they made that run to the national

title. People are like, oh, JJ, he was supported by his supporting cast and they were the ones that carried him there. Really, when he got to Michigan, they were two and four. The team was so bad that they were considering firing Jim Harbaugh. In fact, he had to go into the university president's office and accept pressurate himself essentially and accept a salary reduction in order to stay. JJ came in the next recruiting class. They made the playoffs three straight seasons, obviously the last season with that national

title. So this kid is ready to play. Jim Harbaugh, that NFL coach, he played for the sitting NFL head coach today. He was the best prospect in last year's class. I wasn't quite as high, so I wasn't the highest guy on McCarthy. That definitely would have been Jim. But I had McCarthy number three overall on my board. Simon, before you, I know

you want to jump in with a question. You're all over, Michigan. You've got Will Johnson, other than Travis Hunter, being the top corner, you've got their two defensive tackles, very highly ranked. You love their tight end. What is it about the Michigan program you've seen in the years of doing this kind of coverage, especially lately, that has helped them develop such high potential draft picks? The development that Harbaugh does, he identifies the dudes, obviously their national recruiting brand. It was an NFL program. The training program that they had there,

it was NFL-esque, and finding guys that can fit the system and then sort of build them up, these guys that come out of the Michigan program that Harbaugh had, Harbaugh brought in, there's a lot of polish to those skill sets, and they were playing four NFL coaches in NFL systems, which obviously appeals to the NFL. And now with that coaching staff, half of it or more, and also guys that were in the pro that are not the pro the personnel department for for michigan identifying the town whatnot a lot of those guys are in the NFL now sort of spread around some of them follow jim uh his son jay is the seahawks special teams coordinator spy tech is the raiders gm they're all over the place so you see that influence as well and then i mean beyond that the other harbos that

are in the NFL and then the branches of those trees so so the intel is sort of all out there on these prospects and makes for an easier acclamation to the NFL. Yeah, last week, Chad, it was, probably the biggest episode we had where I had so many professionals better reach out to me about Todd McShay. Like, he came on here and said a lot and he kept me busy all week. I basically, my biggest position at this point is Ashton Genty being a top, you know, six and a half pick. So basically Todd's on our show, Chad. He says he likes Genty to be a higher pick that people realize. And, you know, he gave out that Patriots nugget, which was 16 to 1, when he said it is now down to six to one,

which is pretty insane. It was eight and a half minus 200 to go under eight and a half pick. Now it's down to under six and a half minus 450. So I took a large position. Shout to our guy, Todd McShay. I would love to know your view of Thor on, is this news of this running back moving up the top five real?

Are you seeing guys mock them as the Patriots or the Jaguars or is it just all a small smokescreen and the Patriots are going to pass on them, the Jags are going to pass on them, the Raiders will pass on them. I'm about to lose a ton of money. What is happening right now with this running back and being a top five pick? Jensi for sure is in play for the top five. And the floor for him is six. Like if he gets there, the Raiders are going to take him. And so that, you know, it becomes the race with that. As far as the Patriots go with it, my take on the Patriots is it's been sort of sneaky and sort of suspicious that it's just like, oh yeah, it's Will Campbell.

That's another free spot on the board. Why is it, why is it Will Campbell? I don't think Will Campbell can play tackle in the NFL, much less succeed at it. We don't have any data for a guy whose arms are that short and wingspan is that short, even hanging a tackle. So I think that's an interior player. And then, you know, you hear when people are like, why, you know, why do you like Will Campbell so much? Oh, he's so great in interviews. He's such a good guy. That doesn't justify the fourth pick. If you were the Patriots and then people just assumed you were going to take Will Campbell, would you tell your media contacts? No, no, no, it's not going to be Will Campbell. It's going to be, whether it's Gentie, whether it's, you know, whoever the real target is, or would you just be like,

yeah, they're right. We're going to take Will Campbell. Right. I was just say, generally speaking, are there any bets that you've made? Like, are there, like, draft markets you've been attacking? Are you just being patient, kind of seeing how this week's going to settle? Because people, they think it's going to be really chalk. It's the word. I don't know about you. And I feel like those are the best years you could take advantage where everyone thinks they know the first four picks two weeks before the draft. Like that's what it feels like this year. Are there any markets you're attacking or are you just being patient? It's not going to be chalked. We're going to be in for a while night on Thursday.

The drafts where you can predict them easier, it's the ones where, I mean, two things. You have more of the top first round quarterbacks, right? Because those guys become free spots on the board. Last year, we had the six of them. We didn't know where all of them were going. We knew where a few of them were going in advance, but you knew that they were going to go fairly high. So you got some free spots on board there. And then otherwise, just elite prospects at premium positions, we have less of those in this class, right? The receiver class is way down, left tackle class is way down.

And, you know, some of those different premium positions. So because of that, we have less predictability here, right? I know that, like I said, know the first two picks, feel decentish about the third one. After that, I think this thing is wide open. I think you're going to see a lot of trades. I think you're going to see unexpected guys fall and then unexpected guys get pulled up. And I think that that's going to lead to movement as well. But yeah, I don't think that this is going to be predictable at all the way that this class is constituted.

Well, look, you just mentioned you've got a lot of trades. You did a two-round mock last week, including predictions about how many quarterbacks go in the first round, you know, that number, two and a half, three-and-a-half has been an active market. you mocked multiple trades. So far there haven't been any, right? And so this is the latest we've seen before the draft with zero movement. Why do you feel so confident? Well, I think there's a wait and see element with some of these NFL teams because of this sort of uncertain paradigm that we find ourselves saying, you know, that I was just sort of speaking to.

And I think because of that, you're actively monitoring the situations that your designated position groups of your team needs. you're going to have to do that in the moment because what is the scenario, right? Like this is like a, it's like a doctor strange draft, right? Like once you get to four, if that thing is different than Will Campbell, it opens up all these realities that we didn't know before, right?

And then the fifth pick, right? I mean, if Genty's not the fourth pick, but then he could absolutely go five and it absolutely could be via trade. These things are going to open up these, again, these possibilities we haven't seen before. And for teams, I think that's what they're waiting for,

is there a scenario or let's say it's a wide receiver needy team in the 20s, is there a shot that Teterola McMillan starts to fall deeper than we think, right? And we can get access to him. Maybe it doesn't fall all the way to us, but maybe we can make a small move up the board for him. I think that's what it is. I think this sets up for more trades during the draft, but because the environment that we're in not pre-draft, like the one with the Vikings and the Texans last year that was like a month or six weeks before the draft where the Vikings were able to get the first round pick, right? They were able to package, you know, some of that in order to do that. They were doing that because the quarterback environment, right? They wanted the second bullet to

potentially be able to trade up. They just didn't want to be boxed out of those top quarterbacks. And, you know, of course, the Bears with the Panthers was a year before that. That big trade, the Bryce Young one, that was done in advance because of the quarterback. A lot of times it's the really strong quarterback classes that lead to the trades in advance of it. But yeah, the quarterback class down this year. So speaking of quarterbacks, in your mock, you had three QBs in the first round. Tell everybody who those QBs are. And I would assume that means depending on the market, you're going to be betting over two and a half or under three and a half quarterbacks in the first round. But explain your positioning on quarterbacks right now. Yeah, I had dirt going 21 to the

Steelers. And it's so like, you know, you look 10 day or, you know, two weeks ago, you know, in advance of that, I would have, I would have said under two and a half quarterbacks, but the way that this theme has gone and the new whatnot, I'm going over that for sure. And that, you know, the three and a half market, the adjusted one, you know, I would potentially be interested in that depending on the price of going over that too. Because Jackson Dart looks like he has a decent shot to go in the first round. I think the Steelers are the fit that makes the most sense. Obviously, I have a need there. And then in Arthur Smith's offense, you have a lot of the play action concepts throwing deep. Jackson Dart did a lot of that. The mobility as well that Arthur Smith likes.

Jackson Dart has that as well. And then the Jalen Milrow is the other guy. Jailen Milrow, sort of the mystery guy there who's lurking, opened up a lot of eyes when the NFL invited Jaila Milrow to the NFL draft. The NFL does not make a lot of mistakes with their invites. And so that was tipping off and telegraphing to you. The Jaila Milrow is going to go. not only higher than the media had assumed, but that he has a real shot to get into the first round. And I think this scenario that makes all the sense in the world there is the Cleveland Browns trading up from 33, a couple spots,

and taking Jaila Milrow at the end of the first round. Cleveland Browns is offensive coordinator. Tommy Reese was the offensive coordinator at Alabama in 2023. When Jaila Milrow down the stretch, they looked like a future number one overall pick. It wasn't until last year down the stretch. Through the end of September, Jaila Mellro still look like a future number one.

overall pick. He shredded Georgia's defense. Like you never see a quarterback shred a Kirby Smart defense at the end of September. It devolved from there, though, down the stretch. And that's where the pushing pull came with Kailin DeBoer trying to get Jalen Milro shoved the square peg into the round hole

of his passing offense. DeBore did not want Milrow to leave the pocket. Wanted to pin him in there on the passing concepts and get the ball out. And with Jalen Milrow, you have to let him off the leash to give him the freedom to be able to run as well when he doesn't see it. Tommy, knows how to construct an offense around him.

That's what Andrew Barry was talking about last week at his press conference. So I think that would be the fourth one there. And you talked about how this draft, I mean, a lot of people have that. It's just really solid throughout, right? It's not so much, you know, blue chippers top heavy, but, you know, you can get a great pick at, you know, pick 45 is the same pick as someone's taken apparently at 12 or 13. Like, that's how deep people think these D lines are, you know, the D ends. I'm interested here.

Do you have anyone? Because I've talked to a lot of pros, they have guys. like, you know, Jack Sawyer, who's 18 to 1 now to be her first rounder. Do you have anyone like that that you could see sneaking into the first round that has crazy long shot value right now where it's such a draft of randomness? Is there someone that really jumps out to you? As far, I would have to have the odds board in front of me. But there are a couple guys that I take a shot on that just like popularly maybe aren't.

The longest shot would be probably, I don't know what Benjamin Morrison's odds are. but as a mystery box, whatever the odds are, it probably be worth like a what do you call pizza money bet because we don't know what the medical reports on the hips were, right? On Benjamin Morrison's hip, that's a guy who would have been an all-day first-round pick. Had he not gotten injured? He had the hip injury. That is scary, absolutely.

But if he gets enough clearance from the medical status in the NFL, he becomes in play for the first round. So, you know, just on that, Chavon Ravel would be another guy. the cornerback class drops off pretty quick, but those two injured guys, they're both first round guys, just depending on what the medical teams have said. Those will probably be two long shots for me. I wouldn't do any receivers. I'm actually, I like the juice thods on the under two and a half receivers in the first round. You're going to see McMillan. You're going to see Golden. I think there's a lot of scenarios where both take Buka and Burden fall to the second round to open that thing up. And I think that thing's closer to a coin flip as far as probabilities go than the two to one near two to one is suggesting with that.

But yeah, that's how I go with that. I'll give people the odds real quick. Shavon, three to one, Benjamin, 10 to one. So pretty good odds if you want to take some long shots on that. Yeah. Yeah. 10 to one feels like really good number for jumping in based on Thor's evaluation. Simon, I think Thor just came on the favorites and he freaking dominated.

He was ready with every comp. He was ready to combat my idiotic ideas. He was more thorough than the full wall of helmets that he spent about $80,000 on that are pegged to his wall right now. Thor Nystrom, Fantasy Life. Matthew Friedman is right. You crushed this. Great job. Appreciate it.

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