The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Fantasy Update

Episode Date: June 29, 2022

NFL Training Camps are a month away, but that won't stop us from diving headfirst towards the pylon on NFL fantasy enlightenment with Action Network fantasy expert Chris Raybon. He joins host Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter to dive into the biggest differences his rankings are showing in relation to current Average Draft Position across the major skill positions of quarterback, running back and wide receiver. Plus, we hear his take on players with the highest ceilings heading into the 2022 NFL season. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-8789, 1-800-522-470470 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Moment, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Big fantasy conversation today in a few minutes. Action Networks all, everything. You see him on our NBA show Heat Check. You follow him for his NBA heaters. You know him from hosting our fantasy show, Fantasy Flex, from our NFL show on the Action Network with Stucky.

Also Fantasy Flex, the podcast. That's what I'm referring to. He has consistently been one of the best player rankers on fantasy pros, the industry standard, ranking the experts top five two years ago. His name is Chris Raybon. He's going to come on in a second after I bring on my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter. Yeah, nothing like talking a little NFL, some fantasy in late June, you know,

just getting, getting fired up, buddy. Like we literally, every time we have to do these little snippets, we talk NFL. I mean, you're both just like, ah, God, I can't wait until September. So this will hopefully hold over some of our diehards who are just itching for some fantasy talk because just like them, I love fantasy football like everyone else. It's a form of gambling. I'm in on it. If you can find an edge in fantasy football, you can make good money doing it.

I'm sure Chris has made some nice dollars doing these best ball tournaments and things like that. Well, listen, I'm not going to disagree with you. Like, there's definitely something about talking NFL. It's almost like when you get together with the friends you've had for 30 years. and like there's a a sort of a secondhand nature to the conversation. Like everyone knows each other's habits, their nods, their ticks and like can immediately jump in. That's what I feel like when I talk about the NFL.

It just feels good. You know what I mean? It just feels good. Ray Bon, doesn't it make you feel good? It does. I know, I'm still I'm still searching for that. that friend I've had for 30 years that it's probably going to take another another decade or so for me, but point taking, point taking.

Might aid yourself. Don't give me your bullshit about being. Listen to me. I'm just saying, man, I would have been five. I don't have any friends since I was five. Well, I do. Well, damn. That's on you then.

That's on you. I'm sorry. Because some of my closest friends in the world are people that I've been friends with since I was like five years old. And the fact that, you know, I'm so much older than you and can now say in my professional life, I have people I've been friends with for almost 30 years. You'll get to that point soon. I will. Maybe not that soon, but I will.

You and I have already been friends for five years. Yeah. Five years. I know. I'm just kidding. When I'm in my mid-70s, you can be spoon-feeding me ADP rankings. Let's talk about that today. Let's talk about average draft position.

Raybon, for anybody who's like a hardcore better and is only tangentially in fantasy, explain what ADP is. Average draft position, that's essentially the market for fantasy football. So it's just where on average each player is being drafted. Usually you talk about it in terms of position. So like Tom Brady, if he was the ninth quarterback off the board, you'd call him QB9. But you could also talk about ADP in terms of their overall draft position. And then there's a bunch of different sources.

Fantasy pros has one where they kind of aggregate a bunch of different industry sites that people draft on for theirs. So that's the one we'll be using today. But yeah, that's average draft position. Just where are players going on average. All right. So today you're going to run through 18 different players. I think we're going to have opinions on these, which are basically your top three players

that are sort of overvalued, and your top three players in their position. And then your sort of bottom three players, for lack of a better term, in each position, regardless of their current ADP for... Well, no, no, it's with their,

it's not regardless of it. It's relative to their ADP. Relative to the thing. Like, I'm out on Patrick Mahomes. He's not a bottom three player in fantasy, I just think he's going a little too high. So it's just, it's just overvalued guys and undervalued guys relative to their very early, you know, June ADP. That's basically what I said.

Nah, you said, you said, regardless of ADP, that's a totally different thing. I feel like I didn't say that. Sam Darnold. I, I, all right, fine. Maybe I said it. Anyways, overvalued, undervalued based on ADP. Right? Is that fair? How good is that sound? Yeah. Sounds really good. I want to talk about quarterbacks first. Do it. Go. Okay. Damn. My first one up is Tom Brady in terms of quarterbacks that are undervalued. He's going as the QB9 right now. And if you look at his two years in Tampa Bay, he finished as the QB7 in his first year. And then he finishes the QB2 last year. And, you know, part of the year, you know, he was missing. Antonio Brown. He was throwing a guys like Cyro Grayson and Breschard Perriman for game-winning touchdowns. You just don't want to bet against this guy.

And I think when you're talking about the picks that are going where Brady is going, you know, you can get him, you know, outside of the top 70, 80 overall, usually. Like, he could be a league winner. If he has another QB2 finish, he could be a league winner. So you're not really risking that much. I'm taking a quarterback at his spot, but the upside is still very, very high. And I think people are just going to be a little bit scared

because, you know, how long could he keep doing this? But, I mean, if anyone's going to go out on top without an actual drop-off, it's Tom Brady, and he's given us no real reason to show that he's going to slow down in any substantial way yet. So I think at QB9, I think you take him there. Now, if he was going at like QB2, QB3, 2, QB4, then you say, okay, well,

now it's kind of balanced out. There's no real value there. But QB9 for a guy that could, you know, be a top two quarterback or even the QB1 overall, if things break right, I think that's a steal. I can't argue with you on Tom Brady. But there's almost never anything to say about Tom Brady because the bottom line is you don't bet against Tom Brady. It's like a standard trope at this point.

Your next one, though, Simon Hunter is going to have. some significant opinions on. Let's go. It's Jaywin Hertz from Simon's Eagles. He's going as the QB8. He's all yoked up, which means absolutely nothing, but that's what everyone seems to be talking about with him. His upper body has finally caught up to his lower body in terms of lifting.

So I guess that's cool. But the reason I like J.1 Hertz is because he was a QB7 and points per game last year. Now he adds AJ Brown to the mix. And that could also. So it potentially increase, not just his efficiency, which should go up from having A.J. Brown in place of like J. Lin Rager, essentially. But Devonte Smith's also entering year two. And just the combination of both of those things, the efficiency should increase. But they also may throw a little bit more. Now, I know they had the most success when they kind of went run heavy down to stretch last year. But with all that, with all that run heaviness with Jaywin Rager taking up snap. he still finishes the QB7 in points per game. So I see nowhere to really go but up. And, you know, I'm not worried about his job security or anything like that.

So I think it's a nice gamble on Jalen Hertz who could easily is another guy. He could finish with the QB1 overall. He could put up a top two or three finish. And I don't really see much downside there just because of his rushing ability. If he's not throwing a lot, you know, he's still going to be running the football. So I think Jalen Hertz is a high. high floor, high ceiling quarterback at this point. Yeah, I think Chris just nailed it where when I look at Jalen Hertz,

I believe he's the league winner. Every year there's a quarterback that you got to grab at the end of these first like these first batch of quarterbacks, the top 10, top 12 quarterbacks. Like Tom Brady, love what you just talked about, how he killed it last year. Brady's a nice guy where you can grab him and you can grab Trevor Lawrence later on. You pair him with some young quarterback. Hertz's kind of guy you can grab and that's it, right? Like you're kind of banking on him being the guy that's going to

to win you the league. And I look at Hertz, this is it. Like, this is the perfect setup. What he just talked about? It's the year two in him in this offense. He's got A.J. Brown now. Goddard's a great tight end. There's a lot of offensive weapons on this team in what we would call a weaker division. So to me, Chris nailed it. It's like I had him probably top five as my quarterback's end of the year. And again, you don't want to take too much from the spring football, but the fact that he's been putting the work and he's got the body now, right? All we have to season if he's got the mind. And I talked last year, the biggest issue with Hertz is the second read. The kid could not make the second read. And when plays with breakdown, Hertz actually did

pretty good finding guys downfield. But when it's all common, he's in the pocket, he wouldn't look for the second read. As soon as that first read was gone, he pulled down and run. And that cost him major plays. So no excuses for him this year. To me, it's like, I love his upside tone much. If this kid can throw for 35, 40 touchdowns and run for 10 or 15. touchdowns, easily a league winner. So I'm right there with Chris. I love the upside of hurts this season. Yeah. And the thing, you know, you talk about that second read.

And I was just talking to somebody about this too is, you know, you know, you know what you're getting with Devonthe Smith already. Like he could be a number one receiver, you know, if they didn't have A.J. Brown. Like, I think he's that good. He showed a year. You had a pretty good rookie year. Guys usually take their year to leap.

But like you have A.J. Brown. You have Smith. And you have Goddard. So, like, you have three guys now. that can create pretty decent separation. So it's like, yeah, Hertz is always going to miss him. He's not a perfect quarterback. That's why, you know, that's why he is what he is.

That's why he was drafted outside the first round. But just having guys that are going to be open, you know, so that he does it, he maybe has that extra half second, you know, if he gets to that second arena, if the processing is still not as great as, you know, Tom Brady or some of the other great quarterbacks in this week, he's still going to have guys that are open at three different positions on a lot of passing players.

So I think that's really important. That's why the AJ Brown acquisition, I think, is so meaningful. Well, look, it's really interesting because the Eagles have said, we're all in on Jalen Hertz this year, right? This is the year to prove it. If it doesn't work out, we're going to go another direction, but we've given him the weapons. We got A.J. Brown.

We've surrounded him with talent. Like, it makes total sense based on what he did last year. the opportunity he's going to get and the weapons he's got to, to overvalue him based to undervalue him based on his ADP right now, whereas the next quarterback on your list, you got to take a leap of fucking faith. Yeah. To go with this one.

Yeah. And it's Daniel Jones. And the reason, and this is a two quarterback week kind of play because there's no other reason to be even looking at a guy that's going is the quarterback 29, right now. But I think it's interesting because he was, you know, just inside the top 20 last year in terms of points per game at the position. And that was with a terrible offensive line, which three of the starters from the O line last year are not even signed by any NFL team yet. Like, that's how bad

this roster was. Top four receivers missed a combined 24 games, you know, Sequin wasn't right the whole year. He's going to have, he only had one good tackle. Now he should have two, uh, if, you know, if the draft pick pans out, Evaniel. So they're just, and then you have dable, who, you know, was there, oversaw Josh Allen kind of growing from a guy who we didn't know at one point into a very good quarterback. I don't think Jones has the same kind of talent, but I just think everything about Daniel Jones situation is better than it was last year, where he was the QB 18 and points per game. So, like, this guy could sneak into, like, you know, maybe like a QB 12, 13 in a best case scenario.

But even if not, at QB 29, if you're in a two-quarterback week, I think he's definitely giving you startable value just based on the fact that he can run. And literally everything is better around him than it was a year ago. It's always interesting how GMs come in and eventually, evaluate talent, right? Because clearly, now this is the second round of management that has a belief in Daniel Jones, at least for this year. Maybe they surveyed, say, ah, they didn't have many options based on what was available in the market. But also what you just said, terrible offensive line. The Giants just gave him no help. A lot of injuries, Sequin. So who knows? Danny Dine. could be throwing dimes, right?

And Jason Garrett, too. I forgot to even mention, I mean, the list was so long of things that weren't right. And I'm not, like, listen, I'm not trying to sit here and say Daniel Jones is a good or even above average quarterback or anything like that or like this, like, it was, because I hate when people say, like, oh, well, this guy didn't play well because he didn't have anything around.

I mean, that's been the argument for Sam Donald and all these guys. I'm just saying for fantasy purposes, he was like just below average last year in terms of points per game at QB18. and now everything around him is better. So, you know, you put those two things together and you could get a half decent fantasy year and he's free. So that's what I'm saying.

I'm not saying he's good or like they're right for having faith in him because I still haven't seen enough to make me think he's like a franchise quarterback. And I think he's still a net negative if you're talking about, you know, quarterbacks worth to the spread. But I just think for fantasy, he's free and he could give you, he could outperform his ADP by like 10 best case scenarios. even 15, 15 slots. All right.

Your list of QB's sinking, for lack of a better term, your overvalued quarterbacks. Yeah. The one of the top of the list. Yeah, right. Patrick Mahomes, QB2. I just think that's too high for Patrick Mahomes without Tyree Q. And let's put some numbers behind us.

Over the last four incredible years from Patrick Mahomes, he's averaging a full yard per attempt less. throwing to everyone not named Tyree Kill. And then his touchdown percentage goes from 8.3% to Hill to 6.4% to everyone else. And that may not sound like a lot. So if you put it in terms of touchdowns, that's over 13 touchdowns per 600 pass attempt difference if you just use his touchdown rate for everyone else as opposed to Tyree Kill. So like if you're drafting a quarterback highly, first of all, it's usually a mistake

period because usually people start one quarterback and it's just a supply and demand issue, there's always going to be quarterbacks that are going to be startable further down to list. We just talked about Tom Brady. We just talked about Jaywin Hertz. And even if you go a little further down, there's still guys you're going to be able to kind of stream and mix and match. So if you're drafting a quarterback highly, you have to be sure.

And first of all, Patrick Williams wasn't even the quarterback too last year, you know, and I was with Tyreek, no defenses, started to figure some things out. So now you're taking away this generational talent who clearly had a big impact on Patrick Mahomes's numbers. And you're again expecting him to finish quarterback two and higher than last year. It just, I just think that's just overvaluing a guy. And it's because he has that name, Patrick Mahomes, it's really hard for people when they get to a certain point in the draft. and there's maybe like, you know, guys you would call like running back twos and wide receiver twos and then they see Patrick Mahomes.

And it's hard for people to pass on that name versus like a guy, you know, kind of a middling wide receiver two or running back two. But first of all, it's the quarterback position. But second of all, it just doesn't make sense that he would have a season, a QB2 season without Tyree Kill. You know, if he was going QB8, QB9, then I'd say, okay, hey, this guy, this is what he does. He finishes, you know, top five, top six. So better than then. But at QB2, it's the opposite. He's overvalued.

And so I think, you know, I think you're going to want to fade him up high in the draft because he can't, the only thing he could do to beat his ADP is finishes the top quarterback. Like, is that really likely in his first year without Tyreek? No. Yeah, I would say most of the do draft him. They're not drafting him to the second quarter of. They're drafting him just to hope top five because he's just consistent. That's what they're banking on.

I'm with you. The Tyreek thing. kind of throws a wrench in it. It's like, again, I'm with people. He's a dominant, incredible quarterback, but he was always consistent when he had Tyree Kill. So I'm, I'm with you. It's a little high, a little, little too high for Mahomes, but I guess that's just the fan of the community feels comfortable and they feel more safe with taking him there. But your next quarterback in those list is really interesting. Your quarterback 10, where do you have him drop into? So Aaron Rogers is who Sam is talking about, what you're

talking about. And yeah, listen, the thing about Aaron Rogers is, first of all, let me, so I think I think he's like an 11, 12, 13, 14 quarterback this year without Devante Adams. And I don't think that means the Packers will be bad, but you just have to look at the numbers with and without Adams. You know, over the last two years, 9.5 yards per attempt with Adams, 7.8 with everybody else. So that's a massive difference. That's even more than Mahomes and Hill. And then the touchdown percentage goes from 9.5% to 7.9. So that's per 600 attempts. That's just about 10 touchdowns difference. And let's remember, Aaron Rogers, you know, in like the weight 2010s, you know, right before you got LaFleur and Hackett, who Hackett's also gone to Denver.

But before you had them, Aaron Rogers was kind of in that 9 to 14 range in terms of production. And that was with, you know, at least one good receiver. It was Devonzee was there. And I think Jordi might have even been there for a year at the beginning of that or something. But like, Aaron Rogers, at one point I was notorious and I was wrong about it, but I was notorious for saying, hey, he might be done. Like he might be falling off because he had like three straight years. Really it was five, but like three straight fantasy years of middle wing production. Now his top receiver is Alan Lazard or is it Sammy Watkins or is it, you know, Christian Watson, Randall Cobb? like it can be overstated how poor this receiving court is now. Like it's not good.

These guys don't get separation. I just like I don't think they're going to throw as much. I think the touchdowns go way down. And I think the efficiency goes way down. Now, Aaron Rogers, he knows how to win football games. So he's going to do what he has to do. And he's probably going to put up decent numbers. And they're probably win, win games.

But in fantasy, I don't want to, I don't want to draft Aaron Rogers as an even. the top 10 quarterback. Like, I just don't want to do it. Yeah, Chris nailed it there saying that they're in a transition here, right? We've read the reports. We've seen them talk about it. They want to become a dominant defensive team with a dominant run game and a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over. Rogers will sign up for that. Rogers knows he's getting older, so he wants less hits. Here it doesn't turn the ball over. We'll see what this year is going to bring. But I'm right there with Chris. There's so much more upside guys to take than

aging and Rogers coming off. Again, back-to-back MVP's. It's like, that's, That's really hard to keep doing what he's doing. And now you're not making him put a high on his back, but how many times have we've seen him get bailed out by Adam? So it's going to be different for sure with the screenbait team. Now, your next one's really intriguing from your QB 13. I'm interested here. So we know, again, we're about to talk about the Sean Watson.

There's a lot going on there. But for you and your rankings, do you think you're too high on him already just because of built in the rumors, the drama, that he's going to be suspended for six games, maybe a whole season? Yeah, well, so QB13, that's the ADP. That's why it's it's ADP. I have them lower. Oh, okay.

Yeah, so the numbers that we're talking here is all ADP. I have them lower and that's because there's going to be so much uncertainty had it into the year. And well, QB13, most people play 12 team league. So I get the QB 13. It's like, okay, he's the first quote unquote backup off the board. But here's the thing. Like, if you're playing in a one QB league, you don't want to be using. more than one spot on a quarterback. So you either have a guy that you trust that you're going to

play week in and week out, or you're going to be streaming and dropping, you know, only holding one quarterback on the roster at a time. So I don't like kind of wait and see, stash him, see what happens. That's a waste of a rush of a spot. Then you can't stash him on IR because he's not injured. We don't have any idea how much he's going to play. A suspension could come down at any time, even during the season, you know, if we don't get clarity before. So like, unless we get some like confirmation that okay he's going to be able to play for a full season and because of whatever maybe the legal proceedings will take too long and it's just not going to happen that he'll get suspended until you know the NFL usually waits until after that that

kind of wraps up that's the only way that I think you go you go higher on Watson but right now it's like drafting him is a QB 13 it's no mansland it's like you're wasting a rossom spot there's no guarantees how many games he plays and at this point it looks like he's going to get at least a six game of suspension. I mean, if I was just kind of had a set of line. So, you know, it's just, to me, it's just a waste of a roster spot right now. You know, I think he, if, and it's QB 13, it's like, if it's a 12 team league starting one quarterback, again, it's like, you're going to have guys, you know, Brady, QB9, Hertz, QB8, like, there's going to be other guys that you could just get a little bit earlier that are

guaranteed to be in the lineup week in, week out. So, yeah, I, I, I, I, just don't see the point with Deshaun at this moment. And if I'm wrong and he plays the whole year, it's like, it's like, yeah, well, we'll know, we should be able to know that. It's like, it's not something where, you know, at this point, it's just a risk. It's just, it's just a risk.

Not a smart draft back in June is what Chris is getting at. It's not a good use of a Ross's spot. In your running backs that are undervalued, I feel like the first one on the list that I'm looking at right now is right on the border of that undervalued. If his ADP was one spot higher, he'd probably be in the perfect spot. I don't know. Christian McCaffrey, he's the RB5s consensus at fantasy pros. I think he has to be no lower than two. Because first of all, where is the discount coming from? Is it coming from the fact that he has only played, you know, was it eight games over the last couple of years? Or,

No, I think it was more than that. But, you know, he's missed a ton of games over these past two years. And there's a discount going on because of that. But I think people are discounting them too much, considering that every running back is an injury risk. Like every single running back is an injury risk. So then you say, okay, well, take out the injuries for a second and just because every running back is an injury risk.

And just look at the production. He put up 20 or more half-pR points in four of the five games he finished last year, as in, you know, the ones that. that he didn't get hurt and leave early. And then in each of the two years before that, he was not only the top overall running back in fantasy, but he was by at least four points per game over the next closest running back.

And he was doing the same thing last year. He just happened to get hurt and leave two games early. That's it. That's the only things that have changed. And now we're bumping them down to five. To me, I just don't get it, especially where, you know, like, Derek Henry's also coming off an injury. But Christian McCaffrey has shown he can outscore him already.

You know, Dalvin Cook gets hurt a lot too. You know, he's not the, he's not like the becket of health. And he's going above McCaffrey now. Like, you know, these guys that are going above him, it just doesn't really make sense. And it's just that people are scared off because it's been two straight years of injuries. But like, like, there's time. There's a time to be working. about injuries like Sequin Barkley. I was yelling for people not to touch him last year.

Everyone just thought he would go back to normal. But this is different. This is, there's no reason to expect Christian McCaffrey to get any more hurt than any other year. And if healthy, he's probably the top running back even over Taylor. Because Taylor, I mean, Taylor put up such an outlier year, whereas like McCaffrey's already done it twice. So I don't know if you could call it an outlier where he just completely destroyed every other player in fantasy in terms of points for game. game. So, yeah, I think five is too low. I think four would be too low. RB 15, playoff Lenny, Leonard Fournett. This guy landed in a supreme spot.

And a lot of guys landed supreme spots. What he's done is not fuck it out. Yeah. Yeah. And so, everyone was kind of out on him after, you know, the Jaguar failures with Jacksonville. But playing with Tom Brady really helps. And just look at, first, of all, look at the numbers. He's going as the RB 15 on average. He was the RB 7 last year in both total production and points per game. Then he got 12 million guaranteed on a three-year deal, really a two-year deal, but still 12 million guaranteed is a lot for a running back. They replaced Ronald Jones with a rookie who the scouting report is he struggles in past protection. there's a chance for net sees an even larger workload this year than he did last year,

where again, he was the RB7. He was a top 10 running back, a top eight running back last season. So, yeah, I don't get the RB 15. I know he's age 27 now. That's usually when running back start to decline maybe a year later. But I think he still has at least this one more good year in him. There's nothing to suggest that he was slowing down. And there's no injury to speak up.

Like, there's really nothing. I don't understand why people are so low on him. Another one that people are undervaluing, according to you, RB22, James Connor. Yeah, I mean, we know they had to choose between Connor and Edmonds, or they felt they did. They let Edmonds walk.

He goes to Miami. So now James Conner's here, and I know they just signed Darrell Williams. But like these guys, like, no, like, you know, somebody will have to be the backup, up. But Connor in five games without Edmonds last year, 21.6 touches per game, 96.6 6.6 scrimmage yards per game. One point four touchdowns per game. Oh, and if you watched him play, he looked like one of the best running backs in the week, pretty much week in and week

out, but especially in those games where he was the feature of back. Like, this guy, he was giving them more juice than Kyler, you know, most of that year. He was giving him more juice than DeAndre Hopkins. Like, he was. the best player on that offense for stretches for much of the year. He was a complete beast and they paid him. And all we've seen from him when there's no like guy to like form a true committee with and there's not going to be. And there, you know, there's no one on that roster that would be right now.

He's been a 20 plus touch guy. And we saw him do it in Pittsburgh too. So it's not even like he's done it in two different places where we, where he's had the starters role and performed at a very high level. So, and again, yes, he's been injury prone at times. Every running back is. So I don't see any reason to discount him for that. I know he's had a couple of injury played gears in Pittsburgh,

but yeah, this guy just balls. So let's run through. Let me do this kind of quick just because these are guys you're down on, the running backs that are dropping. Let's start with Antonio Gibson. Right now, ADP, running back 12. What's your view on him? Yeah, I think he should just be maybe four, five, six spots lower,

kind of around where he finished last year. He was RB 18 in points per game and half PPR last year. And that was with J.D. McKissick playing only 11 games. And I think that's kind of the issue with Gibson is that he's really not ever going to be like that true three down back, not only because of McKissick's presence, but also because he really wore down last year as the season went on. And you could see a kind of clear correlation between, you know, as the workload increased, the yards per carry and the yards after contact started to drop.

You know, so, you know, his first year in league, he had 206 touches, and he averaged 5.1 yards per touch. Then that went up to 300 touches, and he lost, you know, close to a full yard per touch. He dropped to 4.4. So I just think he's going to a little too. How they also drafted the rookie Robinson. And he could, he could actually steal a few, like, short yardage carries and things like that. So I just don't think he's up.

RB one in fantasy. I think he's, he's RB2, and he's being drafted like a low RV1. So as many people know, Keeper Leagues, you always want to draft the injury players from last year. So one of the bigger draft and stash players from last year, J.K. Dobbins, I see his ADPs number 20. You think that's too high. That's interesting. I would love to hear what's your view on him right now. Yeah. So, listen, another great player, J.K. Dobbins, I mean, from what we've seen out of him anyway, very talented player, good runner, you know, works in their system. But when you're talking about fantasy and you're talking about an RB2, a guy that you're going to count on a start week in, week out,

a guy you're going to draft in the first, you know, five rounds, you want him to be more of a short thing. And you want him to, you don't want him to be kind of overreliant on any one thing. And I just think Dobbins is going to be very reliant on touchdowns and game script and things like that because he only averaged 1.2 receptions per game, you know, in his lone year that we've seen him. And we know Baltimore, they're not really throwing to the back.

That's just not how their offense goes. Greg Roman is still there. I don't expect that to change. You also got a factor in that they always kind of have been a committee team. You know, Gus Edwards is still going to mix in and not just like mix in. He's going to get a substantial workload as well. And then you also just have the fact that Dobbins isn't healthier. You know, he, you know, messed up his knee last year and he's still working his way back.

and we still have no guarantees that he's healthy as of right now. So I just think all those factors combined, he has a lot of bust potential, you know, taking him in the top 20 running backs. I just think, you know, the lack of receiving usage combined with the fact that with the health, combined with the committee, you know, there's just a lot of question marks to be taking him in a spot

where you could just get a, you don't necessarily have to take a different running back, but I think it's a great spot, you know, those four, fifth, six, those middle rounds, draft wide receivers. Get a top six, top seven tight end before they dry up because you just don't need to be taking these frozen pond running backs where, yeah, one or two of them could hit, but you're looking at a lot more of a higher bus rate at that position, given the players that are going there compared to receivers and tight ends.

And also right now, right now it's crazy to me that his ADP is 23, but Damien Harris is being the 23rd drafted running back right now. What's your view on him going to this? It's kind of similar to Dobbins. He averaged 1.2 receptions per game, and he scored 15 touchdowns last year on 202 attempts, which is amazing, but like, think about it this way. Would you draft like peak Lagart-Blatt Blunt in New England,

you know, in the top 20 as a RB2? I don't think you would because he doesn't catch the ball. It's the same thing here. And we just don't know what, is going to come with Ramandre Stevenson. Like those guys at times are splitting the snaps evenly. And it just so happened that they both, you know, were able to be productive at times because there was no James White in that mix

for much of the year. And he's going to be back as well. So now you could have, it could be like a like a 40, 40, 20 or like a 35, 35, 30 split in snaps between Harris, Stevenson and White. You know, they're just that's, and then, and that's on top of just the fact that touchdowns really unpredictable. unsustainable, and that's what he's going to rely on. So, you know, if he was going, you know, outside,

maybe 30th, 31st where you could take a swing at, hopefully he gets another double digit touchdown year, I'd be all in. But RB 23, I don't think I could rely on this guy all year as a starting running back. This baseball season turned K's into cash and big hits into big wins with Fanduil's sportsbook. Right now, new customers can step up to the plate with a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

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embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I want to flip the script because we've been going rising and sinking, undervalued, overvalued. I want us to end on something positive. So, Simon, you're going to ask Raybound about undervalued receivers. Raybound, I want to start with the overvalued.

And I'm surprised at wide receiver 13, Jalen Waddle, is overvalued, given the optimistic nature of his new circumstances. So it's optimistic in the sense that wide receivers, year two is the new year three. Like it used to be wide receivers break out in year three. Now it's usually year two when you see a big jump. Now, Waddle also had a very good rookie year. So I don't know how much more of a jump he can necessarily make. But I don't necessarily view the circumstances as kind of better for him to produce

in fantasy. last year he had 140 targets, 104 catches. Now Tyreek Hill is there. Tyreek Hill just had an interview where he explained why he wanted out of Kansas City. And it was because he wasn't being used enough, right? Like, so you know Miami, they're going to kind of use him as much as possible. And on top of that, he's just a guy who, you know, you look at targets per route run. You know, that's how you kind of project out wide receivers and when you're, you know, putting a guy in a new spot.

And last year, like, Wado was far and away, you know, the only kind of plus guy in terms of targets per route run for the dolphins. Like, he was getting open. He was getting a separation. The ball was going his way. Now you've got a receiver that is better than him in that spot. And you're still expecting him to finish as a top 15 fantasy receiver. He was wide receiver 20 in points per game last year. And that was with 140 targets and 104 catches.

He was wide receiver 20. Now you expected him to jump seven spots after you added one of the best receivers in the week and one of the most highly targeted receivers in the week. It just doesn't really make, it just doesn't really make sense from a numbers perspective, even though the player is very good. And the player could even improve from last year in terms of just his skills. The numbers aren't necessarily going to back, are going to match that in terms of his fantasy production with Hilbert.

What I love that you do very well specifically, and this is what betters do well and what successful fantasy players do well, they completely flip conventional wisdom and the way the crowd is going on its head. Jalen Wattle, everything you just said is such brilliant analysis, breaking down the numbers versus what I framed as positive circumstances, which actually aren't that positive at all. especially compared to what the numbers were last year. Another guy who blew up last year, everyone talked about as being key to the Las Vegas Raiders getting into the playoffs, wide receiver 29 and ADP, Hunter Renfro.

Yeah, and this is a similar situation to Waddle, where Hunter Renfro, you know, he's got two guys that are going to be scheme more than him in his offense now. Devante Adams and Darren Waller. And Hunter Renfro last year, you look at his numbers with and without Waller, you know, and he's a very good receiver.

He gets a lot of separation. You know, we've seen the like triple and quadruple moves that he sets the defenders up with. So he's another great receiver, but he, his, you know, his catches per game dropped by 1.2 with Waller in the lineup. And then, and now you're adding,

Vante Adams to that. You know, you're taking a 1.2 catch drop. And then you're adding your Adams, which could be another, you know, 1.2 catch drop. And Renfro is not a guy who's getting a high yards per catch or anything like that. So he's a guy, the loss of volume hurts him a lot because for his career, he averages 11 yards per catch. You know, nine touchdowns last year is probably an outlier,

especially for a guy his size, you know, kind of a slot guy, 510, 185. So I just think that it's really going to be tough for him to produce top 30 numbers with those two guys. He might be a top 30 receiver in the league in terms of his route running ability, all that good stuff. But in fantasy, it's hard to expect that kind of season from him. I mean, Devante alone would probably have knocked that down. But you're also bringing a wallerback who missed, you know, significant time last year. Both of those guys are healthy. This is going to be really tough.

And also, you want guys, when you're drafting wide receivers, especially around this spot. You want guys who have that upside to be their team's number one, but no lower than their team's number two. And Hunter Renfro's already the team's number three. So it's just a situation where I think, you know, the floor is probably decent, but I think you could go a little higher in terms of the upside.

You are overvalued at wide receiver 35, a guy whose stock has been falling, I'd say the last year in his time with the Arizona card. knows DeAndre happens. Yeah. And this is another one of those numbers plays because it's really hard to kind of figure out how do I discount a six game suspension, right? You know, it's something that it's like, okay, wide receiver 35. That sounds right. You know, he's usually in the top 10. We'll drop him to 25 spots. It's really hard for people that aren't like modeling this or

really looking at the numbers to get like an accurate way of discounting the six games. First of all, the six games is a little more significant. It's not six, you know, divided into 17. It's six divided into 16 because no one plays fantasy on the last day. So it's not like you're spreading some of that suspension out over the full season. It's even less. But, okay, last year, Hopkins was the wide receiver 17. And, you know, so he's already dropping in terms of points per game.

He's already dropping from his heyday. Now you've added Marquis Brown. Zach Ertz will be there. you know, Rondale Moore is entering year two. So you still got competition for target. So you look at Y receiver 17, that scored 193 points. He's going to miss 37.5% of the season, guaranteed. Couldn't miss more because wide receivers tend to miss, you know,

one or two games with injury. Hopkins actually missed more than that last year. But let's just go off that 62.5%, you know, which is six into 16, which is 10 into 16, the amount of games we expect him to play. you take that from the wide receiver 17 points last year, which is 193. And you take 62.5% of that. And you get 120 points. That would equal the wide receiver 45.

So that's just some rough back of the envelope math to tell you that he's still going about 10 spots too high. He's been discounted, but not enough. So for your wire receivers you got on the rise, I really like these. You know, we'll start off with the highest one. ADP YereC 10 from Mike Evans can't get no respect. Mike Evans, you think that's too low or too high? Yeah, I think that's too low. But I, like, and it's because Mike Evans is like the highest floor receiver pretty much in fantasy.

I mean, like I think this, I think he should be going like seventh. Like I would take him above like C.D. Lam is going seventh. I would take him above C.D. Lamb, a thousand yards or more every season. And he's had eight seasons already. So that's pretty amazing. That's with Grunkowski with Brady. like no gronk right now with brady yeah we don't and no a b you know so there's still you know there's there's there's room to grow but he's done this every year regardless of the quarterback regardless

of the circumstances he's had a thousand plus yards every season which also mean he stays healthy that's another big thing like you know he he's a big guy he's built you know very he's thick he can stay healthy he's proven it so far so that's you know that's an added bonus but not only has he put up you know a thousand yards in all eight of his pro seasons he's at least 13 touchdown receptions in each of his two years with Tom Brady. So it's like you have a high floor and a high ceiling. And like you said, if Gromk doesn't come back, maybe even if he does, because you still, you're going from, you know, Brown to Russell Gage. Chris Godwin probably misses some time at the beginning of the year. There's room to grow in terms of the target share

for a very talented guy. So love the floor ceiling combo for Mike Evans. I see another guy you're high on going right now at average reposition wire receiver 30. Robert Woods, our guy back off, you know, pretty major injury, but he's had plenty of time to rehab. I love where you're coming from in this angle. He's getting drafted way too late. Wire receiver 39. Can't get no respect, Robert Woods. Yeah.

And listen, I get, you know, it's still early. I expect him to start creeping up. But now, I've been kind of keeping tabs on him because I'm very interested, you know, because I think he will be a value if he's still, if he's going out of spot like this as long as he's healthy. And I've been, you know, watching some videos out of camp. And I mean, he's cutting hard. he's catching some passes. He looks good.

Like he doesn't like, and this is, let me kind of contrast this with a guy like Michael Thomas. Another guy coming off injury. He hasn't played in a while. Michael Thomas still hasn't practiced. Like we have no idea what like when he's going to be back. If he's going to be good to go for training camp,

if he's not. You know, Chris Godwood, another guy. Like he's not, you know, he's not back. Like Robert Woods is out here and he's moving around. He's looking good. And again, what I say about the, you know, wide receiver, when you get out of the top, you know, 25 or so and into that, you know, 30, 40 range, you're looking for guys who can be like a number one. And Robert Woods, if he's healthy, it's a very high likelihood that he's the Titans number one receiver over Traylin Burks, who's had some struggles in camp, who's a rookie.

I think Woods comes in here and is the number one. And he's had between a lot of, 11.4 and 13.9 half ppr points per game over the last five seasons. That puts them between wide receiver 9 and wide receiver 25. And that's, you know, and that's with, you know, last year, for example, 12.5 half ppr points per game. That was with Cooper Cup going off. That wasn't as the number one option there. So I know Tennessee throws a lot less, but he's going to get the same opportunity as

A.J. Brown in terms of, you know, the routes being on the field and, you know, potentially the targets if he's if he's healthy which it looks like he is so yeah i think he's he's going to be a steal uh at wire receiver 39 and the last one here why receiver 46 christian kirk going very late and you you like him way above that position don't you yeah so this it's just a bet on the fact that like it's it's just a smart gamble i guess you could say at that point in the draft wide receiver 46 you're essentially getting him as a low end number four receiver for another guy who could be. I would say he's the most likely got to be Jacksonville's number one receiver, Simon. And you talked earlier, like, you know, he kind of implied Trevor Lawrence might

take a step forward, right? You know, and I think he can only go up from what he did last year. You know he has talent. So Christian Kirk, in the seven games without DeAndre Hopkins last year, he averaged 5.6 catches, 65 yards per game. You know, that was his time. He showed he could be a true number one receiver or at least put up those kind of numbers, you know, even getting more defensive attention. And then you look at the targets per route run. And his, you know, his number last year, 19.4 percent, that was higher than Marvin Jones, who was at 18.2. And Zay Jones, who was at 17.2 with the Raiders. So, you know, when you're projecting this out, just based on the numbers alone, you know, Christian Kirk, you would project him to get the most targets on the team.

And then you look at the contract they gave him. And you look what he did when he was that top guy. and you say, okay, like this guy, you know, maybe he doesn't put up top 20 numbers, but I think he definitely could sneak into the top 30 as the Jaguar's, you know, number one receiver, de facto number one receiver. So I think Y receiver 46 is way too low. Dudes, we have covered it. We have gone through undervalued, overvalued ADP for quarterbacks, for running backs, receivers.

We had surprises. We had controversy. Everything you could want in a list. Chris Raybon of the Action Network are Do Everything Analyst, but really one of the best gambling and fantasy analysts in the country, according to every metric, whether you track him in the app, whether you follow, see his rankings on fantasy pros, listen to him and Sean Curner every week on Fantasy Flex, the fantasy podcast from the Action Network. Well done, Raybon. I will definitely be your friend 30 years from now. Love it. For that. Love it. Thanks for having me, guys. Always a pleasure. For Chris Raybon, for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman.

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