The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Free Agency Update

Episode Date: March 9, 2023

NFL free agency begins on Monday, but we've already had an active offseason of quarterback movement and intrigue. Here to help Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss it all is their colleague Chris Raybon, NFL betting expert and co-host of the Action Network Podcast. Together they go through Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones and more, plus identify potential breakout teams for 2023. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Must be 21 or older and in select states. gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Or visit C-CPG slash chat in Connecticut, 1-8109 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-7-0 stop in Louisiana. visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467, 369 in New York, 1,800, 522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Big, big show. We're talking NFL, free agency. We got Lamar Jackson stuff today. discuss, Daniel Jones signing to discuss. We are going to bring them possibly someone who holds both ventricles in my heart. He is my nemesis, and yet I love him like a brother. Chris Raybond's coming on the show in a little bit. But before we get to that, I got to bring on my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. How you feeling, buddy?

Aloha, Chad, doing good, brother. Saw a couple whales yesterday from the beach. Life is good here in Hawaii. Did you really? Yeah, humpbacks, baby. Like, we just, I heard a fun back, too. Yeah, like literally, if you go 100 yards out from the beach, the shelf drops 500 feet. So apparently, that's why they come to Hawaii to have their babies.

And a little fun effect about a baby humpback whale, it is born at 15 feet, 3,000 pounds and can already jump out of the water, which is pretty mind-boggling to me. When you think of humans, we take about 18 years to be raised. Baby humpback whale takes like four months. So, yeah, pretty cool just chilling on the beach seeing giant whale is bigger than school buses to jump out of the water. So it's been pretty cool. If that baby humpback whale lived in New York, every other parent would be looking at

their kids and wondering, why can't my kid, jump out of the water as soon as it's born and be 15 feet and 3,000 pounds. That's what would happen. That's true. I really enjoyed our podcast with Michael Asker on the other day about the Oscars. I got a lot of feedback about it. And I feel like I've become really interested potentially in not betting on everything, everywhere all at once for Best Picture. And because I think there could be some split voting,

and I think it could end up being Top Gunn, which would make me really, really happy. And listen, I bring it up because, oh my God, I bring it up because Chris Raybon, who I introduced before, who is analyst extraordinaire for action, NFL, NBA, but also Oscars crazy, him and Colin Wilson, do a ridiculously good Oscars podcast, which came out this week. And now he's laughing at me when I said, I want Top Gun to win the split vote category for the best picture. Such a boomer comment, Chad. Like, that is such a boomer movie, bro.

Like, I'm not even, like, I'm 35, so whatever you want to think of that, but like, that's such a boomer comment. That movie was a lot better than expected, but it was still corny as hell. It's not winning. It's not winning best picture, bro. Like, it's not. The only thing I think has a fighting chance is probably Banshees.

But the thing about it is everything everywhere is just, there was just more of it. Like it was just longer. It was had more acting noms. It's just, it's just better. But pot good does not stop it. Like I keep hearing these comments, Top Gun is going to win this. Top Guns is going to win NASS. It's because people, the Oscars have alienated the younger generations.

And so most of the people writing these articles are boomers, no offense. But like, it's just, and I, I've, I've. I'm not with that. I'm not with that at all. I hard disagree there, Chad. All right. Hard disagree. Number one.

Number one. I loved the banshees. Yeah. Probably my favorite movies this year, I would say were the menu, top gun, and banshees. Okay. Number one. Number two, I'm Gen X fucker. Okay.

I know, but we don't. Boomers is pretty much everybody that's like, like, some people. people could call me a boomer for certain things. It's just like, it's beyond the generations. You know what's a real boomer comment, though? Say it, I'm Gen X, buddy. You know what?

Love you, Chad. Love you. I don't know why the fuck we have Raybon on this goddamn podcast. I've had such a nice, peaceful few weeks post-Nephal season. And now we've got to bring them back. There's a lot to discuss. As I mentioned, Lamar Jackson, non-exclusive franchise tag. The Ravens are, and I want to start there, and obviously we're going to talk about this from a, why should you care from a betting point of view.

The Ravens, historically, one of the smartest franchises from an executive point of view, generally outside of wide receivers make great draft picks, made a great, great trade in the middle of the season for linebacking help from the Bears. So they're playing this Lamar Jackson thing. They've made him an offer. Lamar Jackson wants all guaranteed money like Deshaun Watson. They have non-exclusive franchise to him, meaning any team can make him an offer. And either the Ravens get a bunch of picks or they can match the offer. They're basically playing chicken with the guy and saying,

we don't think you'll get the guaranteed offer you're looking for. Raybon, let me start with you. Do we think the Ravens are putting themselves in a position to be a really good bet for futures betters. I honestly don't think, I do, I do, but I don't think much is really,

I mean, the Ravens are, but that's more because the Ravens are always, but like I remember last year, Stucky and I were talking, like, the Ravens are probably the best value

on the board. Now, it didn't work out. You know, what happened down a stretch, they collapsed, then they had the fumble and all that. But I really think that this is just a natural part of the negotiations,

because it makes sense, it kind of makes sense for both sides. For the Ravens, just like we had our number. We're not going past it in terms of the guaranteed money, but we do want to keep you here. So, you know, if you think that we're, you know, kind of trying to lowball you, okay, here's the,

here's the market. We'll let you test it with the protection knowing that we either can now match it or get something back in return. So I don't think it's actually, I don't think it's as contentious as the media is making it out to be. What I think is, is that most people writing about this, they've never been in a situation where they're, and most people have it, where they're negotiating for this kind of money,

especially without an agent. And so it's like everyone's kind of mixing the business with the personal, where it's like, this is what's going to happen in a negotiation when you represent yourself. It's going to seem a little uglier than it really is, but I just think this is a natural part of negotiations. And I think one of the interesting things in Simon, I wonder if you kind of noticed this too,

but I'm seeing most books post odds, Lamar's next team, if not the Ravens. What does that tell me? that books are just trying to raking all this money from all these long shots, where in reality, I still think the Ravens are the most likely outcome. I do. So I just noticed that a lot of books weren't posting the Ravens as an option on that list of the other team.

So I wonder if you kind of noticed that as well. Yeah, I would say the most interesting to me about the Sol Lamar thing is how sensitive people are to it. They're like, they can't get over that they made this deal. And it's just, I feel like what you said off the top is a perfect thing. It's the Ravens. If there's an organization you should trust and value what they're doing, they're the team. So nothing to me is that shocking.

There's a reason this guy was the 30 second pick and all these teams passed on. I think there's so many GMs that are just, I don't want to say old white guys, but it feels that way where they're just like, no, I want the 6-5 guy that stands in the pocket and throws the ball down the field. I don't want the 6-2 speedster that can run around the field and potentially get hurt. So people are like, oh, who are these teams that not want Lamar? who's won the MVP, you have to change your entire offense to fit his scheme. So it's not that shocking. The more shocking part to me is that he's a good deal right now. If you do, all you have to do is give up two first round picks and pay him. I know it sounds like a lot. But when you compare

it to what someone just gave to Russell Wilson, it feels like a really good deal. When you compare it to what someone just gave to Sean Watson after the guy didn't done anything in two years, it feels like a good deal. So I'm with him from that standpoint, but I'm from the standpoint of the GM, I don't know what I do here. It's a guy who's been injured in two back-to-back season that he's been injured. He's one in the playoffs. And you can go back and watch that film. The teams, when you get to the playoffs, it's a lot easier scheme against the guy that's kind of a one-trick pony. And as much I heard to say, Lamar's the one-trick pony, he hasn't had the throwing down field to make me confident that he can lead by passing,

where it's always been the legs and deception and the fourth and two, the fourth and one runs that kind of takes him to a different level compared to the guy. Just standing from a distant shed, I don't know really what to make of this shit. It's the same thing as these jets odds. These numbers have moved just off hearsay and rumors. And, you know, Lamar, I can't see him leaving. It doesn't make sense that you would leave. But the offer they made to him was, you want to see what you want to see what your value is because you don't have an agent.

We're going to show it to you. We'll let you take this tag. And anyone can make you an offer now. So to me, the Ravens played it perfectly. They know the guy doesn't have an agent. They know the guy thinks he is way better and more value than he really is. Because they gave him a good offer. You can go back and look.

I think they offer them over $200 million. 132 of it was guaranteed. That's a good deal. That was a good deal that they made a little more. I think they kept in market value with him with Kyler Murray and other guys like that. So I, from a drama standpoint, yeah, it's interesting as a football fan. But as a gambler, I don't really know what to do with it, Chad. It's one of those where like, yes, this time of year,

you should be all over the Ravens. They didn't win the division last year. We saw them take it with a backup quarterback. They probably should have beat the Bengals in Sinci with a backup cubie. So we love the Ravens. What are we supposed to do here? Because this is, any team could step in right now and make him an offer. And yes, the Ravens could match it.

But it isn't interesting. They even left the door open because we don't really see that. Right, Chad? In 2023, our franchise quarterback teams don't really do this. So I think not having an agent has played into this whole thing where, you know, we're seeing some GMs just being like, I want to change my team. I don't feel like dealing with a guy who doesn't even have an agent.

Like it's too much of a headache. So there's a lot of baggage clearly with this Lamar Jackson. And once again, he's one and three in the playoffs. That's a big deal to a lot of the GMs out there. So I think that's why people are trying to say it's more than all this. I don't think it is. I think this is a lot of stuff that these general managers are just weighing in

right now on because it's such a big deal to make this kind of move for a quarterback like him. What you say GMs? Hold on one second. Hold on one second. I got to get in a read, okay? And I want people to know. I want people to know because we've been talking about game time so much the past few episodes, which is the fastest growing ticketing app in the U.S.

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How easy is that, no matter where you live, download the GameTime app, get out, and have some fun this week. You deserve it, and you can redeem code favorites for $20 off your first purchase, terms apply. Again, just download the app and enter code favorites for $20 off. Download game time today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Raybon, go. I was just going to say, you know, you talk about the GMs. I think this is, I think this is owner-driven. I think the reason Nevada teams have come out and said, out on Lamar is essentially saying we're standing with each other. We do not want to make this the precedent.

They view Watson as an outlier. They view the Browns are stupid for doing that. And they're saying, we're going to help you out. Because remember, the Ravens can match any offer if they want, you know. So now it comes down to, okay, which owner is going to make that offer? And whatever owner makes that offer, he's going to be an outcast among the rest of the owners. It's not just the Ravens are going to be upset if he makes, if there's a massive offer that the

Ravens can't match or it's fully guaranteed. Every, like 30 other owners probably or, you know, 29, 30 other owners are going to be upset. So I think that's why we're hearing about this now and everyone's kind of scratching your heads. Oh my God. Why would you be out on Lamar? Well, yeah, because we don't want to pay Derek Carr that money in a couple of years. We don't want to pay Jimmy Garapo that money in a couple years.

Look at all these average quarterbacks that are going to come. Look at Daniel Jones even right now. Like imagine everyone's asking, imagine he asks for 160 guarantee instead of just, you know what I mean? So that's why we're hearing that. And I think that's why the media is so thrown off. Everyone's just like, it's like what's really going on, we're not going to know about until it's all said and done. And we may never know about.

But that's what's really going on. These owners aren't, are not trying to pay anyone this kind of money. It's really interesting you say that because I've seen that storyline. It's kind of, it's not collusion by letter of the law, but it's collusion by letter of best interests. And what is good for business? And if you think in the NFL, there isn't some kind of whisper campaign that happens amongst GMs, my owner doesn't really want us to make this deal, my owner, you know, like all of a sudden,

that chain gets a little kinetic. 100% believe that this is an entire possibility and that there is this kind of campaign happening. Simon, you're shaking your head. this this feels like like real sort of this feels like real game theory shit that's going on I agree a lot of but I also think it's just it's an overrated he's not that he's overrated but he is it's like the guy takes too many hits and that's a big issue where he's not built like Jalen Hertz like he's not got these big lower body he's not this huge jack guy he's small quick and fast and yes I I love watch the Lom

I would hate for Lamar to be my quarterback. Like every time he runs a ball, you have to hold your breath because he takes these hits. And once again, we've seen it back to back years. He hasn't lasted. Tom Brady, 45 years old, he hadn't missed a game in six years, Chad. So to me, that's a big thing where like these guys I talk to, again, we'll talk about this Green Bay Jets thing.

Like, when my sources, my sources in the league, all these people I talk to, it's just like you either really love Lamar and you love his playing style and you would love him to to be on your team or you hate it and you don't trust it and you think he's kind of a flash in the pan. It's like, am I really about to give a kid who's, what is he, 27, five years? And yeah, right now when he's 32, but it's just, I don't know. To me, I'm one of those people, I just wouldn't do it. Like, he's just, there's other guys that'd rather invest my money than Lamar.

But at the asking price, I think it's a fair deal. Like, again, if you're a team like the Jets who you've never had anything at the quarterback position, I'd make the move. Like, two first rounders, no problem. We don't know how to pick first rounders anyway. move the first rounder. You guys can't draft quarterbacks anyway. So there's a couple of teams that I would do it, but I'm with Raybon

in the sense that because it's the Ravens, I pay them so much more respect. There's just such a smart organization. It's just like, I'm with them. There's probably a lot of collusion behind the scenes, but there are also some teams that are just like, this ain't worth it. This ain't worth me doing with him more. So it's the most poor like, even to me more than Aaron Roger.

I think this is a bigger deal where this will shift markets depending on where he goes. If he goes to Miami, that's going to make a huge shift. Him on that Miami all offense would be insane. Like him with Tyreek Hill with Waddle, that's crazy because no longer his whole career with the Ravens, he's faced a stacked box. He's never had that wide receiver that's taking the top off.

I mean, you can say Hollywood Brown was that guy for him. Hollywood doesn't even compare to Tyra Kill or Waddle. So that's the team I'm keeping my eye on with Miami where it's like I love those kind of moves or those dream scenarios of these teams, they wouldn't take that risk on him. I think if you have the pieces around them, them are the jets. those are two teams. I would make the move. But Atlanta, why the hell would Atlanta sign Lamar?

They're just not built for his style of play. So there's certain teams that are just aren't built for it where there's other teams that are. I said one thing. Go ahead. I just say one thing about Tom Brady. Kind of my generation. The man loves the testes. Oh, God.

I was just going to say, you know, to the point of, you know, the risk factor, I think the risk factor is the guaranteed money. And to be clear, like, I want, I want these dudes together. paid. I think people, you know, get, go get your life. But I will say this, from an owner's perspective, the problem, because one of you mentioned, you know, kind of business and good for business and what's not, guarantee contracts are not good for business because what's going to happen if you start guaranteeing deals. Guys are going to get injured. We've seen that with Lamar. We've seen that with everybody. Guys are going to get injured. And then what's going to happen? You're going to have situations like with the San Francisco 49ers in a playoff. You're just going to

have less talented players. playing more because you have all your money tied up guaranteed into players that we guaranteed are going to get hurt too. So I think this is a serious issue for these owners. And that like personally, I actually don't think it's as reflective on Lamar as the principle behind this guaranteed money thing because yes, Lamar's got hurt. You could question his durability. You could question, you know, how good is his arm talent given the receivers he's had?

but at the end of the day, anyone could get hurt. Like we've seen, you know, Christian McCaffrey didn't get hurt for a while, and then he started getting hurt all the time, you know, got like Matthew Stafford was healthy for a lot of years, and then he started getting, like, it's just, everyone knows everyone's going to get hurt. And so I think this guaranteed money, if that becomes precedent,

that does pose a danger to the game in the future because you're going to see more situations where you're just playing these more replacement-level players, and that's why we're also talking about, should we bring back a third quarterback? You know, these things are like heavily weighing on the league's mind that I believe. What's actually is what I heard from guys in the league,

it's the Carson Wentz effect. The Carson Wentz thing is, you go back a couple years, Eagles gave him all that money. If that was all guaranteed, imagine what kind of hold the Eagles or even the Colts would have been in trading for him where that's always a worry with these teams

where it's like, okay, a guy looks incredible on his rookie contract, you give him the money, and then they just fall apart. I think that's another thing that's playing in here where it's like, yeah, we don't mind paying you Lamar, but we don't want to give you 200 million guaranteed. So I know we've beaten this to hell,

but I do think it's one of the bigger moves this all season is going to dictate a lot going into March. What do we think of, Simon, you mentioned Aaron Rogers. It's nonstop conversation. I'm addicted to the New York Post. I read it nonstop. I check it more than I check anything else in my five minutes before a meeting, you know, scroll.

And it's all Aaron Rogers. They met in California, what's happening. We've talked about this, but let's level set. Like the Jets right now on Fandul, I'm looking in the Action Network app, they were about 28 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. That hasn't really changed much in the last. What's that? It's down to 16 to 1 now in Fandul.

No. Yeah, that happened two days ago. So, you know, I'm Chris by the same spot. This is the time of year I have my alerts turned on for a lot of people. And like Schaefter makes my heart drop. Like right before he came on, Shepter, tweets out trade jets agreed to send and it's like oh my god and you read the rest of it's a seventh round pick for uh chuck clark the safety so it's been tough where like i'm i'm

waiting for the shooter drop because i've talked to a bunch of people that are good sources i know someone that's really close to rogers he's in his camp it does seem like they want to see what they got in jordan love and they're kind of over the whole rogers experience right so in the back of my mind i honestly thought he was going to go back to green bay and now i'll talk to enough people. It seems like after his little trip into the darkness, he's come out and he's kind of wants to get out of Green Bay. He wants to move on.

It seems like I think we all could agree here. The Jets feels like the best spot for him to go because they're such a complete team. Now, in the gambling side, if you were taking the Jets now, it's 16 to 1, that is a horrible bet. That's a horrible bet in an AFC that is so tough. Again, it would be completely different. This is NFC. But the AFC, to me, that's a bad bet. So I think it's interesting so many people are running into the window to get the Jets at, you know, they were at 25 to 1.

They were at 20 to 1 and make this bet on this Jets team. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows it all still runs through Buffalo. So as much I want to get on the Jets hype train, it feels like this is kind of like the Russell Wilson thing from last year, Chad of. It's been hyped up too much. Numbers went bet up too much. I mean, you aren't going to touch. I know Chris is going to touch it. The value is all gone.

So if you're one of these people that you made that bet on. the Jets, you better hope he goes there or else you have a dead ticket. Like this has no value if it's Jimmy Gropan well. So I'm sure you hear Chris's view on this, but for me, I'm not really doing anything with this anymore. Now I'll just sit back and wait and see what happens here. But to me, all the value

is going to bet on and the Jets. This, like, let's just shut this shit down with numbers. Like, fuck it. Like, I'm just going to shut this shit down with numbers right now. Aaron Rogers, there's two MVP years. He led the league in QBR. 79.8, 69.1. Those are his two QBRs in his 2020 and 2020 season.

Last year, his QBR went from 69 to 1 two years ago to 39.3. Lowest of his career. You want to hear the rest of the Jets quarterback's QBRs last year? Remember, Rogers is 39.3. Zach Wilson, 36.4. Joe Flacco, 34.2. Mike, 36.9. Get this shit out of here.

Rogers ain't moving a needle at all. He's washed. He's done. No, listen. Don't say. This dude had to go to a dark room just to decide if he wanted to play football again. This will not end well.

Like, no, we saw it with Russ a couple years ago where it was like he was falling off. And then he goes to someplace and everyone's like, oh, it'll be fixed again. And it wasn't. It's like Rogers looked like he was falling off like five years ago, came back, had like a resurgence. Okay, cool.

But now he's clearly, he's clearly, like his arm isn't strong. he's made he's throwing picks which he never did like he i just i you know it just he can move he's he's he's going to be better than what the jets had he does he make him a super bowl contender in my opinion i don't think he moves the needle as my because i just don't think this is the same iron rogers that we were getting even two years ago and even if he does like when it like when is erin rogers put gotten to the super bowl since you know whenever he won his his one ring like every year he goes to the playoffs and gets upset usually at home. So really he's making a Jets to Super Bowl contender with a QBR three points higher than

Zach Wilson. Get the fuck out of here. Yeah. It's been 12 years. Raymond, for I would say in, I think it was 2018, 2019, you wrote so many columns that proved Air Rogers was on a downward slope in his career. And then he has these two amazing seasons. back-to-back MVP's, and then falls off a cliff again. Are you able to identify what happened that made him so special in those two years?

Was it Matt LaFleur running a different game plan? Was it Aaron Rogers listening to Matt LaFleur and last year he didn't? Like, what have you seen in any analysis that you've done? So I think it did come down to game plan and coaching because McCarthy, you know, he was with him his whole career. So we didn't really have too much of a context, perspective, I guess you could say. So then it's like, okay, because even his first LaFloir year, it wasn't great. But he started to pick up the offense. But now he's legitimately old.

And let's say you're talking about this year for the Jets, right? Well, Rogers wasn't amazing in that first LaFloor year. It was the second and third that he was amazing it. So even if you're talking about it, I still do. think it would take some time, you know, going to a new spot, this and that. So I, you know, I really don't. And now he is, though. So now whatever we thought perhaps could have been a physical decline a couple years ago, three, two, three, four years ago. Now I think it's real just from watching a point. Because the one thing about it, at least you could say the last time was that

he wasn't really, he was careful. He wasn't missing throws. He wasn't throwing picks and committing turnovers. That changed this year. And that's, that's to me, the biggest red flag. And again, the QBRs, in those years where he looked like he was declining, they were still, you know, in the 50s, you know, 58, 52. This is 39.1. This is a career low. Like this is, we're in a whole different tier of sucking or not playing up to potential for Aaron Rogers now.

So, you know, fool me once, shame on you. But I just don't think, I just don't think it's realistic to expect him. Like, not everybody's Tom Brady, like, you know. And I just don't think it's realistic, especially in year one on a new team to expect them to go back to MVP form. Look, I think it's pretty clear that if you're grading old people, Tom Brady, Chad Millman, like after that. This March, take your first shot of college hoops with Fanduals Sportsbook and get 10 times

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Listen to Superhuman on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Simon and Raybon, Daniel Jones, another quarterback, signed a huge deal. Jimmy G. still out there, obviously. Aaron Rogers out there. Derrick Carr just signed in New Orleans. None of these feel like needle movers for me.

If I'm looking at the futures board and saying, is there a potential opportunity that will make one team significantly better and move their odds if they were to get a Jimmy G or somebody like that? What are you seeing?

And I want Daniel Jones to be the next question. So we don't have to touch on Daniel Jones next. But right now, is there a needle mover for you at the quarterback position that can change odds for a team that you're looking at? Carolina getting Jimmy G. Does that do something as an example?

I mean, it'd be great. I'd be happy for Carolina, but no, it doesn't move the middle for me. We talk all the time, Chad. There's literally 12 guys that are really, you know, game-changing quarterbacks in the league. The rest of it are just kind of pawns that need good stuff around and make it a better situation. So as much I want to get on the Jimmy G hype training, the guy is always hurt and we've never really seen him do anything. Like you can say, well, he took the 49ers to the Super Bowl and all those other stuff. Come on now.

Anyone knows that wasn't him. If you go back and watch, especially in the NFC championship game when they played Green Bay, I think they ran the ball 50 times and he threw the ball five times. Like it's just Jimmy ain't that guy. Jimmy's a good game manager. The Panthers, they don't need a game manager. They need a game changer.

Like they have a lot of good talent, but compared to the 49ers, compared to the Rams, compared to the Eagles, Cowboys even. I just don't think the Panthers on the same level. So nothing, like even Derek Carr, like you just talked about, I might take put some money on Derek Carr right now to win that division because he's the best quarterback in that division right now. But the same Super Bowl futures, no. Like I'm not putting any money on that.

So I don't know about Chris, but none of these moves have really done anything for me. It's not, I mean, that's normally how it is in the off season. That's why to me, Lamar, that would be the most crazy movement and earth-shattering movement because Lamar on the right team, that's a big deal. That moves the odds to me. All these other guys, not really chat. They don't really do much for me. Yeah, it's, you know what's a needle mover? Getting an elite quarterback on a rookie deal.

We're talking about free agent quarterbacks, and so that's just not going to move the needle. It's not to say that a team that has signed one of these couldn't end up making a run, but in terms of, like, are we projecting that now? Is that moving the needle, so to speak? Not in my opinion, because I think the real needle movers are, you know, having Joe Burrow on a rookie deal.

having Josh out on a rookie deal, things like that, or having, you know, Patrick Mahomes, who is just amazing. You know, the Rams kind of did it, you know, they, they kind of spoiled us, I think, because they had like the perfect storm. They got Stafford, who I think is better than the quarterbacks out there this. I think Stafford will go down as having played at a higher level during the Rams Super Bowl year, then Aaron Rogers will play this year wherever he goes. So I just think that between the quality of the quarterback and the fact that you are having to tie up significant cap space in these quarterbacks, I don't think they're needle movers. Well, look, I think that's a really good point about quarterbacks on a rookie deal. We got spoiled not just by Stafford, but by Brady because we had two seasons in a row where veteran quarterbacks change teams, people made money on futures markets by producing.

rejecting where they were going to go. Yep. But you're 100% right. You got to look at the teams that have quarterbacks on the assent that are on rookie deals and have good rosters around them. That's where you're going to make your money in the futures market right now. And to me, that would eliminate the New York football giants from this conversation potentially for the next five years because of signing Daniel Jones.

It's not a needle more. mover. It's, when you start looking at the free agent market, you do understand why the Giants went with Jones and just gave him the money. At least he runs. That's about the only good thing. But he's not a needle mover.

I think the Giants actually do have more upside than some of those other teams because I think they, I think their coaching staff and front office has already proven that they can do more with less. So if there is any team that I'm saying, okay, now what are you going to do with this guy who's still not, you're not playing a top flight quarterback money. You know, that market always is exploding more and more.

But, you know, okay, what can you do with this kind of thing, with this kind of roster? I mean, there is some upside there. But remember, when Daveo was in Buffalo, you know, you still had Josh on a rookie deal. So, yeah, it's the same thing. It's just, there's going to be a lot of teams that are going to be very tempting to us. You know, and everyone's going to be.

going to make a case for one or the other it is, and that. At the end of the day, it's going to be, it's going to be either teams with the super, because remember, Brady was a super elite quarterback, too. It's not just, it's not just the buck signed, or acquired Brady. It was Brady's goat, right? So

none of these dudes are the goat. Aaron Rogers, you know, he has that upside, but, you know, I just, I don't see it for him. And then, yeah, Daniel Jones, it's just a very, it just puts you in that purgatory, in my opinion. and you're going to see teams.

It's probably going to be one of these teams that draft one of these quarterbacks, to be honest, in the draft. You know, there's a few quarterback, you know, three quarterbacks, I think, that, you know, people feel could be legit and, you know, maybe four. And it's probably going to be one of those teams

that are going to just jump all these teams that we're talking about right now. Or maybe it's the Bears, you know, your bears, Chad, you know, with the most cap space in the league sitting on that number one pick with a quarterback that on his rookie deal that you could probably build

with. Well, that's, Daniel Jones. Go ahead. Well, go ahead, Simon, because I got a question. I'll say, Daniel Jones is agent. That guy might be the real MVP. I did not see him getting anything close to this number. Just in the simple fact of, you know, Daniel Jones, yes, he can run the ball.

And yeah, he had no wire receivers. But we also have a lot of film on him for these last couple years. And he did take a major step this year, and they did make the playoffs. And that's all great. But a lot has to do with, you know, they're going to be able to build a good team around because they had them on a cheap deal. Yep. Now that's kind of out the window where it reminds me the Tanyl situation.

Like Tennessee had to pay Tana Hill. Then they had to let AGA Brown walk. Now they're looking to move Derek Henry. It's like all of a sudden that money starts getting really tight when you pay your quarterback that amount of money. This ain't known on Mahomes scenario, right? Mahomes are the unicorn. I just, I know the cap space had moved up and everything like that

and that's why they're able to give more money here to Daniel Jones, but just an incredible negotiation by whoever his agent is. I can't believe he's able to get this amount of money. But as an Eagles fan, I'm a static. Like, I'm very happy they're paying this man this amount of money. Because to me, I feel like Chris is nail on the head. The move would have been you trade him for some assets and you just draft some guy this year. Because that's how much that rookie pay scale really factored into it.

I mean, Chad, we talk every off season. Like we make these crazy bets like the Jaguars last year. Why do we make that bet? Because they're paying nothing to Trevor Lawrence and they can go out and sign all these receivers. And again, Calvin Ridley this year that's going to be on this team with the Jaguar teams, they can make that move because they're not paying Trevor Lawrence that much money. So as much as I am all about the players getting their money, like, I'm happy for Daniel Jones getting his money.

That hurt the team. Like, that's going to hurt the Giants to be able to assign players to put around them. So, yeah, I disagree with it at his basis, but what else were they really supposed to do? Like, to me, they didn't really have any options. He fits their scheme the best. their head coach clearly likes the kid. He's one that stuck up for him and said, yeah, let's pay the kid. I think I can win with him.

So we know it is. NFL coaches, they tied themselves in these QBs. So if Davey says this guy is legit, I'm going to believe it because I think he's one of the best coaches in the league. So I can't, as much I want to shit on the money and not much to repaying them, you know, the Giants are a good, well-run organization. Like, they know what they're doing. So I'm going to trust them and say they're probably making a smart move here. But outside looking and I'm like, this is like, completely disaster. So I'm just here. You view it, Chad. Well, I thought it was crazy. Like,

I'm not a fan of a guy has one good year in a situation in which there's an entirely new system. So people are still trying to figure it out. And Dayball is a really good coach. But things went perfect, almost perfect for the Giants. They won like every coin flip game. They won every coin flip game. everything went the right way. Part of that is dayball, good coaching, good strategic decision making. Sequin Barclay, basically being healthy. They had no receivers, which makes it even more interesting. But it's like they did what they had to do to put themselves in a position to succeed

and give them the flexibility as much as they're paying them. Because you do this deal and then you can franchise Sequin instead of franchising Jones. and then losing Sequin. So I understand why they did it. Here's my question. Go ahead, Rabine, you want to say something? I was just going to say the one gamble I think they're making. Because on the surface, paying that money to Jones,

you could be with that coaching staff, with the ability they have, as Simon said, well-run organization. You could kind of do what the Giants did this year. You could get to the players. You could win a game. But you're going to run into a team like the Eagles. But the one bet, I think I'm guessing the Giants are making

when they signed this deal was that the Eagles are going to have to pay Jay on Hertz pretty some. he's going to command like 250 mil. Now the playing field is leveled a little more. Now you're saying, okay, we might just have a leg up on building a team. Because look at the Eagles. It's like, oh, they might lose Bradbury. They might lose Gardner.

You know, like their team is going to start to break up a little bit. So I think that's kind of the bet the Giants are making that. If we can pay a quarterback, you know, maybe like 30% less than the Eagles are, now we have a fighting chance to build a roster that at least can compete. Because the NFC is always wide open every year. Like every year. And now that Rogers is leaving, you know, it's even, I would guess, I would say, and Brady, too. It's even more wide open.

So I think that's the bet the Giants are making. So I'm glad you raised that because the question I wanted to ask was, we're all NFC fans. If you could choose one team from each division most likely to win the Super Bowl in the next five years. and the NFC East is going to be a challenge, given what Raybon just said and the Eagles having a lot of cap challenges coming up. Who is the team you choose from each division that you would bet on? You have to make a bet on each one of these teams

to win the Super Bowl in the next five years. Who do you choose from each division? I know who I'm choosing. I'm choosing the Bears. I'm choosing the... I think I'm taking the Giants. I think I'm taking the Panthers and I think I'm taking the Niners.

Simon, who are you taking? I would definitely go Eagles. I think they've got the best young talent in our division. I mean, it's tough because I do want to say Carolina Panthers. Like as much I want to take Atlanta, I guess you're right with the Panthers. I mean, they just have such a good defense. got to go 49ers once again. But yeah, this is like the tough part of like picking these teams where it's like,

you know, as much I love the Bears, Chad. I don't know if I trust your GM yet. Like I got no real feel on this guy. Again, he's got $100 million to work with in Cap Space. There's a lot of good free agents, a lot of O-line you can add. So maybe this will change once we get closer to the season. But I'm still going to go with Green Bay. Again, I have no read on Jordan Love.

I just trust that organization. They're just, again, you want to do a pouty face. When was your last Super Bowl, Chad? I'm just surprised you would say Green Bay instead of Detroit in this scenario. Like, Green Bay is going to- Too much love for Detroit. Like, they're like the jets to me. This is when you want to get out.

When Detroit, when you look at Detroit is the favorite in the north, bet anyone but Detroit. That's where you're going to find value. Anyone but Detroit, because that's just, The public's really stupid. That's why we even talking to Anthony Richardson and we'll talk more draft. All these guys online, they're like, have you watched this college tape? Have you seen how bad this kid is?

That's what you want. You want a guy like Josh Allen, when people are just shitting on a guy and the whole draft process. That's what you want. The public is really stupid. So the fact that public loves Detroit, that feels like a dead bet this year coming into the season where it's like, you know, Jordan Love can surprise people. It's five years. Five years. Yeah, I'm thinking five years.

Like you're back in Jared Gough for the next five years. I'd rather take the upside on a rookie contract of Jordan Love on a rookie deal in the next five years compared to Jared Gough, which is, I think he's a third highest paid quarterback in football right now. All right. Rayburn. I'll go Giants in the East, but it's really close because Howie is for the Eagles has been excellent.

But I do think the Giants did make an interesting bet on, you know, okay, what's going to happen when the Eagles have to extend her? So just because the Giants right now, they have a lot of, upside. Like we haven't necessarily seen any downside yet. It's only year you're going into year two. So I take them, it's close. Take Detroit in in the north because I'm kind of with Simon in the sense that I don't I don't know if I trust. I like the bear's situation cap wise, quarterback wise, but I haven't seen enough from their coach or GM to to say that they can get over the hump where I think the lions have been making generally smart moves. And they're not necessarily

tied to Goff. Like, I think the lions are actually the leading leaders in the Lamar Jackson, if not Ravens. So, like, I think the Lions, with the Packers doing what they're doing, and the Vikings really weren't a good team. I think I would take the Lions future. I would still take the Falcons in the South. I think the Panthers are going to be more mediocre.

And I don't, again, not a coach of staff or front office that I really have any faith in. Whereas I think the Falcons, it's either they're going to. they're going to switch, like, they're going to either switch coaching staffs or front offices, and they're still going to be in a pretty good position, or they're going to take a big step. So I go Falcons. And then 49ers in the West, just because they're, they've just proven that, like, their talent acquisition. You know, if you can find a third strength quarterback the way they did, and they've gotten to Super Bowes, or gotten close to the Super Bowl with a lot, you know, with Jimmy and then with party, like,

it's hard to bet against them. So definitely Niners with what's going on. in the west. All right. So we all agree on the Niners. And then we disagree on every other division, which is- Well, I wrote down your guys' giant stakes

because this is going to age like milk, both you guys taking the Giants for the next five years. I said it was close, to be fair. I'm just saying it's, like, to be honest, like, we've seen the Giants when they are a well-run organization win Super Bowls that they have no business winning. They're all gone, though.

They haven't drafted well in five years. Yeah, but that's what I'm saying. Now we have guys, You said it yourself. This is again a well-run organization. We're talking five years, right? In year one, they ridiculously exceeded expectations. I'm just saying that puts them in, it's like they could go real low,

but we're talking five years. You want upside. You wouldn't be shocked if they go four-to-10. Huh? You wouldn't be shocked if they go four-and-12 this year. No, but that's my-I wouldn't be shocked if they go four-and-12. I wouldn't be shocked for the next five years. I wouldn't be shocked if they bottomed out again,

but I also wouldn't be shocked if they stole a Super Bowl like those. was 2011 Giants. And remember, Daniel Jones, he, there's that, I, there's, remember Elon Manning, he sucked until he did it. You know what I mean? Like, even during the Super Bowl runs, like, a lot of people are like, I don't know about this guy. So that's what I say to giant, it's close though, because the Eagles have proven that

they can do a lot of things. So I think it's two-team race, whereas I think the Cowboys, they're always going to be in that purgatory, right? They're always going to be in at, like, 8 to 10, 11-win purgatory. and then Washington is just kind of, I just don't trust upstairs, you know, for them. I love it. I love it.

It's great having Raybon back in the podcast. All right, folks, for Chris Raybon, for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, our amazing, talented, wonderful producer who gets everything right all the time. I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast.

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