The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Free Agency with Chris Raybon

Episode Date: March 13, 2025

A fast and furious start to NFL free agency has Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter excited to break it all down. They welcome colleague Chris Raybon to the program ask him about potential destinations for remaining free agents, the biggest signings, the most overrated moves so far, and more. And if you want to see the show live, RSVP now to join us for our free Chicago live event, Elite 8 Saturday March 29th at the beloved venue Joe's On Weed. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.

And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow.

Then after that game seven, Marquis come until he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your If a baby is giggling in the back seat, they're probably happy. If a baby is crying in the back seat, they're probably hungry. But if a baby is sleeping in the back seat, will you remember they're even there?

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I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John Home Studio. And I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my confidre, my BFF professional, better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Chad, how we doing? We are so good right now because there has been a lot. lot of activity around the Chicago Bears during the trade season, the free agency season.

I feel like the Bears have put themselves in a position to be very competitive. We're going to dig in on that. Plus, whatever team you root for and whatever they've been doing, I don't know. They don't really tend to make any noise during the offseason or be a strategic as a team like the Bears. So we can dig out on that and everything else that's happened. in the NFL with he may be one of our top five favorite colleagues at the action network at least top 10 he's the co-host of both the action network podcast and the fantasy flex he joins us

for convince me on Sundays during the NFL season he has long been a brother a nemesis a friend all those things wrapped into one because he is a riddle you can hear him talking all all things, NFL betting, fantasy, free agency, draft all year round. A perennial fantasy pros, top 10, NFL player projectionist, his name, one of the Action Network OGs, Chris Raybon. That was quite the intro. I was feeling it. Glad to be back with you guys.

I don't know how to follow up that chat intros. You're going to come on. You're going to be smart. They're going to give us some informed takes. you're going to make me feel better about what the bears are doing. You might help me make some futures bets. We're going to be great today. That's what today is about.

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at Joe's On Weed, famously known as Joe's On Weed. Free event, three drinks, free live show, with college basketball betting experts, Stucky, and Free Man Weave, obviously. least Simon and I will be there as well. RSVP to reserve your spot by clicking the link in the episode's description. Or you can just Google the favorites live event in Chicago. Be sure to RSVP. Simon, I know that my dad is so excited to come to this event.

He's jealous that your family has been coming to our favorites events for years because they've been in New Jersey and Philadelphia and easy to get to. My dad's freaking out. He can't wait to get there. Honestly, can't wait either, Chad. I'll be honest. Like, it's, you probably the same feeling I do is that you go through this winter mode and you, not that you're depressed, but you need sunshine and warmth.

And that first day of like semi-spring, I mean, I know you had up a good, I get when it's like 60, 70 degrees out. Yes. You get that air. To me, that and the beginning of March madness is like the best time of year. Like, it's someone that lives in northeast. So the fact that we're going to Chicago when the weather is getting right. and we're going to be partying with fans of the show

and just being around other gamblers and watching March Madness, it's the best. So, yeah, I'm really looking forward to it. I am too. Obviously, I love Chicago's. It truly is, like, just brings such joy to my heart to be in my hometown. So I'm excited to get there.

One of my buddies listened to Tuesday's show, and he loves these, his name is Andy, and he loves these story episodes that we do. he was so in love with Matt Mitchell. He was so in love with Matt Mitchell's questions and his honesty and the story about how Matt proposed to his wife at a casino. He texted me, he's like,

I am the president of the Matt Mitchell fan club. I cannot wait to meet him at the event. So even Matt Mitchell is going to get some love and he'll be there in his master's green blazer. All right, let's get into it. I feel like we're making Ray Bonn jealous. He might want to come. fellas

look it has been crazy D.K. Mekkaff going to the Steelers Justin Fields going to the Jets Sam Darnold going to Seattle Gino Smith going to the Raiders Daniel Jones going to the Colts you know

Stafford is staying in L.A. Devante Adams is going to L.A. The Eagles have been offloading the Josh Allen extension. All of this all of this has been happening, right? Raymond, let me start with you. The top two free agent signings slash trades people are not talking enough about and why.

I think you got to start with the team that lost the Super Bowl to Kansas City Chiefs signing Jaywood Moore to play presumably their left tackle position. We saw all the issues that they had going up against that Eagles pass rush and then they end up losing. and Joe Tunney. They trade him. So they kind of made a bet, you know, on their other two interior linemen and more who played really well. Last year, there was really no drop-off last couple of years when he subbed in for Trent Williams in San Francisco. So if they can,

if he can keep that up, that would solve just a major issue for the Kansas City Chiefs. That was probably the difference between them, you know, being in position at least keeping it a game in that three peat and that. And then kind of a related situation, I would say like another one is Laramie Tunsell getting traded to the Washington commanders. You know, as good as Jay and Daniels can move around, they're still in the division with the Eagles,

but the Eagles lost some guys on their defensive line. So that kind of tilts the power a little bit too. So I thought those two moves, offensive line, no, you know, no sexy wide receivers, quarterbacks, we're going straight to the offensive line. You know, it's interesting. Obviously, Simon, you and I talk about

offensive line and defensive line being so powerful when it comes to looking at these teams, handicapping these teams. What did you see, Raybon in more? You say there was no drop-off from Trent Williams. It's not like the Niners went five deep at running back this year, right?

It seemed like every single week one of their guys was getting hurt, and I think it was who was the guy Isaac Gutierrez from UCLA like even he was like in that running scheme doing amazingly well what was so good about more that makes you feel like there wasn't a drop off what did you see what were the numbers

so the way I'll put it is let's think of a team that has a really good offensive line the Philadelphia Eagles we know how good they can run right and Simon could attest to this when they brought in Johnson, like the other Johnson for a couple games at tackle, you know, he couldn't, he was not playing well at all. Whereas when you looked at more, like I was kind of knocking down San Francisco's run game each and every week. I was, you know, up in their pressure rate. And it really just didn't happen over the past two seasons. He's played about,

about 500 total snaps. And that's, that's really the question mark. But, But only two sacks allowed for more. Only five in his entire career on about a thousand total snaps. And the big thing is he can, he's a swing tackle, but mostly left tackle. So I think that's really important, you know, that left tackle spot, which is so crucial for the chiefs. And then because you lost tuning that, you don't even have that. Oh, you trade you don't, you don't have that option.

So they're making a big bet on more. his PFF pass block grade has gone up each of the last three seasons. He was a 73.1 last year, which is very, very good. And I just think that if he plays like he played, especially last year in kind of abbreviated snaps, you know, widow under 300 snaps, I just think that's a huge upgrade for the Chiefs because they had that dominant interior line with Joe Tuny, you know, Jones and Humphrey. they, I mean, excuse me, Trace Smith and Humphrey, and they really, it didn't, it didn't show through. Like, you had, your running game was really struggling down the stretch, especially for Checo.

And against good pass rushes, Mahomes was still getting sacked and being forced into bad decisions. So it's obvious that that tackle spot is huge for the chief. So they kind of made a bet on that, you know, the money's getting a little bit tighter, even though the cap has risen just because of, you know, what, what they're paying to some of their stars. So I just think that's, that's going to be such a. big movement. If it doesn't go right, they'll probably be in trouble. Simon, it's an annual tradition. People will forget about the chiefs. People will not want to bet on the chiefs. People will overlook the chiefs, even though the chiefs are seven to one right now

after the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, plus 700, along with the Ravens, just ahead of the bills. Do you agree with this idea from Rayvon? Yeah, I like in the sense that I think just like most years, we'll be able to get great value on the Chiefs when we bet them in October to win the Super Bowl. That this O-Line's going to need some time to get it together. They'll drop one or two games, maybe lose a game to the Raiders in week two. Everyone jumps off ship. Me and you, Chad, always the wiser. We'll just patiently wait and get them at, what, 12 to 1, 13 to 1.

That's usually how it goes. But yeah, for me, you know, I love the offseason these moves because it is. is the classic one man's trash is another man's treasure. And a lot of these moves are just trash to trash, right? It's like, are the jets, the jets really get better by getting Justin Fields? No, those fans have been through hell. They're excited about it because they're going from an old 40-year-old man to a young, great athlete in his 20s. And they're hoping that maybe they can find a spark with Justin Fields in this team. So it's really fun this time of year. And for me, it's all about the betting angle, right, Chad? And that's what this show.

It was about. And, you know, a week ago I gave out. I loved the Rams, 28 to 1. They go out, get Devante Adams. 49ers have just basically getting all the guys off the ship. They're just cutting all the old guys trying to get young. The Rams are now 20 to 1 for Super Bowl odds. So that's a big movement based off what the 49ers have done and what the Rams themselves have done.

So that's, to me, that's great because I love, you know, I just love getting good value. and it's like, okay, we got a great number on the Rams, and I think it's going to keep dropping because I don't know who's going to be betting the 49ers, rather than professional betters, right? The public, to me, is going to be totally off this 49th team just because I think anyone rationally would think they'd miss their window, right?

They're getting rid of their all pro fullback. They're getting rid of Debo, which you can say Debo's kind of missed it. That's fair, but he's still an important cog to their offense, right? Now it is all on Ayuk and a second year player and a wide receiver. So it's really interesting what's happening with these two teams and the Rams of 49ers, because all you're hearing right now with the 49ers is that they're going to have to pay Purdy and they're fighting behind closed doors because Purdy is saying, I think I'm an elite, and they're saying, well, the talent around you elite, we don't think you are.

So we're not going to pay you $50 million. So is that a lot of drama chat is going to carry into the season? Because I know you are in on the 49ers. I'm not, right? I like the Rams side of it. So I think those are two very, very unique teams where everything feel like it's been negative this offseason for the 49ers, where it's. things have been really positive for this Rams team.

And then, you know, to go to your Bears team, I mean, I know you were just pointing to talk about it. I can't get over it. Like the fact that they addressed the interior line in such a great way, right? Getting the best center that was available, addressing left guard and right guard. We talked about last year, I told you I think interior now on the offensive line is more important than the exterior. I really think there's been a switch to NFL where it's more important to having a really good

left guard and right guard than is a left tackle and right tackle. even more so with an offense like you, Chad, where Caleb, he can mess up when there's rush up the middle. If he gets pushed to the outside, that's where we've seen the magic with Caleb Williams. Like his movement on the outside, once you get inside the pocket, it's brilliant. It's inside the pocket that's been a struggle for him, right?

When he gets that pressure up the middle and he gets happy feet, that's been a problem. Ben Johnson came in day one and went to your GM and told him, that's what I want to do. So I love it because this year has been different than last year. Last year was all about Derek Kennedy. Sequin, right, these sexy running backs, trying to add them to a team that's missing one piece, where this year it really feels like it's been not just boring, but more about address the

interior offensive line, address the D line because of what the Eagles did in the Super Bowl, where we have a little bit of mixed sprinted in of DK and, you know, Adams, these number one our receiver switching teams. But to me, this, this offseason has really been about addressing these teams, D lines and offensive lines. So I'm loving every move the Bears team has made so far. Yeah, look, I'm glad you brought it up. I wasn't going to open with it. Yeah, I bet you are. I didn't want to be the homer.

Yeah, but you can't deny it. It's incredible. Look, I love that Raybond's two top plays were offensive tackles. I love that one of your key points is talking interior line. I agree with you, and I don't just agree with you because of what we saw with Caleb Williams. most, obviously teams are trying to play their young quarterbacks as quickly as possible. The biggest challenge for young quarterbacks is when they get pressured up the middle, when they have pressure in their face and they have to run to the edge,

but they might not have time because it's so overwhelming to have three guys coming at you from the middle of the off, from the middle of the defensive line, who are so much faster than you are used to when you've been playing in college. You can't get to the edge. So you just keep running backwards, right? We saw this with Caleb Williams. Everything you just said is true. Before we get to the Bears, my quibble with what you're saying about the Niners is,

Debo is gone, fine, he was trending down, Brandon Ayuk is back, he was the primary target for Brock Purdy anyways. So it's a wash, right? You might lose something, you know, because you're losing a high-profile fullback who was an important part of your scheme, but you're going to get back. Christian McCaffrey. So you're getting back to your most important playmakers and you're still going to have kiddle at tight end. So I don't worry so much about the Niners. In fact, I might

buy into the Niners again if their odds drop because I think you might still be getting value on there. Now for the Bears. The number one play for me, Drew Dalman, signing the center from the Falcons. Simon, how many times over the past two years, whether it was Arthur Smith or the new scheme that the Falcons were running, did we talk about Drew Dalman and Chris Lindstrom, the right guard for the Falcons? They were so dominant. When you look at Raybont talks about their PFF grades, right?

The PFF grades. Lindstrom and Dalman were so highly rated by PFF over the past couple seasons because of their ability to control the line of scrimmage and create a scheme that allows the Falcons to be so effective in the running game. I can't believe the bears now have Joe Tunney and Drew Dalman as part of their interior line. Jonah Jackson, I think the jury's out.

Is he going to be a pro bowl player? Is he going to be a guy who's sort of off the roster last year, essentially for the Rams? I don't know. But Drew Dalman, Joe Tunney. That's, I mean, wow. And so we backed up a truck for Grady Jarrett. We got a grown-ass man now playing in the middle of the defensive line. like holy tamale right now go ahead go ahead i was just going to piggyback off what you're saying

is that it's year one of what you expect to be two to three years of the right direction right like this is just the beginning we don't want to get too far ahead of our skis like nick right and pick the bears go to super bowl this season but it's it's you can't deny it right these are the exact moves you wanted to see right you didn't want to see them go get another wire receiver You didn't want to see them go out and sign, you know, as much as I love Milton Williams, his contract's atrocious. Like, no one should be paying Milton Williams the amount of money he just received from the Patriots. Like that's the type of move that you guys could have made and been like, okay, same old bears just trying to make a splash. But no, it's all logical, smart.

And I'm sure Chris feels the same way where it's like, you know, we like the shit on you and your bears, Chad. It's harder shit on them this offseason where they've really nailed it at this point. Yeah, it's all about Kayla Williams. now. Like, you know, last year, there was a lot of optimism too, but their team, you know, to your point, so I mean, it was just not quite built the right way. It was too many flashy, like fantasy video game type moves where, you know, the wide receiving quote, it great, but you had a rookie quarterback, you know, not great coaches. So it really comes down to Caleb because I think, I think we know what Ben Johnson is offensively. Now, he could turn,

maybe he's one of those coaches that when he, you know, gets more responsibilities, he might struggle in certain aspects. But I, I, I, think ultimately Caleb Williams at times was really bad last year. And at other times he was really good. So this year, he's going to have no excuse with what they put around him offensively in terms of the coaching staff and the offensive line. Well, look, you could have looked at it a couple different ways. The Bears last year decided we can't do all of it at once. We went after the talent that we thought was available. They re-signed DJ Moore. He came on at certain point. at the end of the year, started to get more comfortable.

They went after Keenan Allen. He probably won't be with the team this year. They drafted Roma Dunesay, right? They went after sort of the best players that were available at the time, didn't overspend on the offensive line. They kept Eber Fluse. Everybody thought that was a mistake. But maybe I don't think they were playing 3D chess here and thinking, okay, we're going

to keep Eber Fluse because he's only going to last one more year and then we're going to get Ben Johnson. You don't want to waste a year of Caleb Williams. They did the best they could. In the second year, they're being very focused on the offensive line. Before we came on the air, we were joking about, like, inept teams. The Cowboys have had an inept, unremarkable, questionable head scratching offseason. Where for the umpteenth year in a row, they are not spending.

They're not willing to sign players. Rico Dowdell just signed a new deal with another team one year, three million. he's going to be better than any running back the Cowboys are putting money on and they could have had him for nothing, right? The Bears have historically been a team that would not go all in on coaches. They went all in on Ben Johnson.

They have gone all in on Grady Jerr. They have gone all in on Drew Dalman. You can't say the Bears are not spending this year. I'm as shocked as anybody. I think it's amazing. Just amazing. But this will not be the year, Simon. will not be the year

like two years ago where I overinvest in the Chicago Bears like we did with Justin Fields Hey it's us the Jonas Brothers and guess what

we have some big news What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas we invented a podcast Well we didn't invent it

We just contributed to a We're the first people to do podcasts A pretty wide range of podcasts We're starting a trend But this one's extra special So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a particular. potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

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Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Let's talk about fields for a second. The NFL is kind of about one thing right now.

As dynamic as a player can be at the quarterback position, if he can't convert the easy throws on third down, if you can't rely on the quarterback to execute in the four or five times a game when he has to make the throw, you can't have a winning team. If we talk about free agent signings and trades, people are talking too much about but won't matter. Justin Fields to the Jets, for me, is right at the top of the list. Simon, agree or disagree? You have an opposing view. Do you have another one to add to this list?

I'll disagree in a sense that I just believe in quarterbacks and taking the upside. And it doesn't matter what they've done other places. We've learned now over the years that the hope is you find the Baker, Sam, Donald type of year, right? You're always going to believe that if I have the right coaching, put the right, pieces around these guys, that we can make this work, right? Because there's a reason that Justin Fields was a top pick, right? his athleticism is off the charts. It's just what you talked about.

His checkdown pass is like when he's getting a little pressure in his face, he can't complete a four-yard pass. That's a major issue, like you're saying. There's a reason he's not a start in the league. It's basically that, it's pretty simple. It comes down to it. That's really the issue with him. And, you know, when I'm breaking this down and looking at his film

and why the Jets are making this move, they have a vision for it. They have a vision for what they're going to do. Now I'm on the other side where I think they might be one of the worst teams in all football, this Jets team. So the fact they're making this, move giving him a two-year deal. Maybe in their mind, they're just like, well, good.

We'll get a high draft pick next year and go get our quarterback for real. And then we'll just have them next year on the one-year deal. And he can be a nice little bridge gap quarterback because I'm in the same camp as you, Chad, where it's like when you look at their division right now, they're in fourth. And it feels like by a lot, right? They're way behind Josh Allen, Tua. And now the hope is Drake May takes that next step. So, yeah, for me and you, I feel like it's going to be a pretty easy bet,

taken their under this Jets team and just everything they've done this off season is just like could it happen right we saw it happen last year the viking sure anything can happen in football sam darnel could have a career year justin fields could come out have a career year i bet you he doesn't and i'm willing to put money on it so that's it's it's pretty interesting that was their big move and that jets fans are happy but you know they're just like cowboys fans man they're just they've been through it like you know the cowboys like you just started like talking about how bad they've been and how they haven't really done anything in this off season. It's like, you know, that stat, Washington made it, last year Washington made it to the conference championship game. The Cowboys is the only team,

the NFC that have not been the conference championship game in like 30 years. That doesn't even sound real if you're a fan of football or fan of the Cowboys, just how dominant they were in the 90s. So, yeah, I get why their fans are pissed off. And I'm honestly shocked that it's not talked about more in media right now about how the Cowboys are just, everything they're doing is wrong, right? not signed a Michael Parsons before all these other D.Ns just got paid big money. Everything they do was just wrong. So, yeah, I'm right there with you where it's like, you know, the Justin Fields thing doesn't move the needle for me, but I get why they did it because it's like, what else are you going to do?

That's the problem with this league is only 32 quarterbacks. And we joke all the time, Chad. You don't want that bottom 10 quarterbacks. They're all the same. They're all interchangeable. So, yeah, really, really tough spot for the Jets. but there is some upside in the play. So I get where they're doing it.

Raybund, you're shaking your head affirmatively, I should note, when Simon is saying the Jets may be one of the worst teams. Yeah, I think, and this extends to really, I would say you're asking just more generally, what is the signing or signings that people are talking too much about that's not going to mean anything? I think it's just all of this veteran quarterback musical chairs. I think the most important quarterback went to the most important place he could be.

And that was Matthew Stafford staying with the Rams because we already saw that. He can win a Super Bowl at this stage in his career with this general iteration of the Rams. You know, that's that's what we've seen. So everyone else, you know, Raiders getting Gino Smith. I'm going to fade them. The Seahawks getting Sam Darnold going to fade them. Jets getting Justin Fields gonna fade them

Who else? I'm leaving out You know like Where our Rodgers go Is getting Daniel Jones Yeah I mean They need Daniel Jones is Like

statistically anyway It's hilarious He was just so much better Of a thrower Of the football Than Anthony Richardson last year That's comical But yeah

Just another example of like this year Simon kind of alluded to it earlier you know quarterback is the most important position you know in terms of betting and the point spread and all that but it seemed like last year the most important move was

moves were running back we saw the Ravens and you know competing for a title with Henry and then of course Sequin and the Eagles end up winning it and this year it's like all these quarterback musical chairs and nothing really moves in me to like even wherever Aaron Rogers goes to me doesn't really move the needle.

Because all the teams that are the true contenders and our guy Evan Abrams talks about this all the time. Like if you kind of look about, it's about 12 to 1. It's where the cutoff is, if you can't get to that 12 to 1 spot in terms of Super Bowl odds by the time the season starts,

you're pretty much out of the running. And Borough is probably the quarterback that didn't make it last year that's in the running. But Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, we know the guys, Hurts, Lamar. like these teams the teams that are going to contend have a quarterback the rams are are going to be there i think and all these other guys just doesn't mean much and i don't think this rookie class is particularly strong either so all you know everyone wants to talk about quarterbacks

and you know even metcalf to the steelers because that's kind of quarterback adjacent where great it's like they have they have they have they always are going to have a high floor and maybe that raised their ceiling a little bit but uh you know seehawks won one 10 games with good receivers last year and a mediocre quarterback and didn't even, couldn't even make the playoffs. And the Steelers are in a competitive division as well. So I just think all these quarterback moves are getting talked about a little too much. And I don't really think they're going to change who we see in that final four.

Could not agree more. The Steelers are interesting, though, because if it's not going to be Aaron Rogers and Raybon, you've been writing for seven years that, Aaron Rogers was on the downside of his career and using really thoughtful stats and analysis to back it up. We saw a lot of it last year. I think a lot of people are going to be enamored with a three, four game stretch where all of a sudden he looked healthy, maybe he was getting a little bit better production, you know, with the four or five times. They saw him make the exact throw that only Aaron Rogers can make.

And all of a sudden, he's going to pair with Mike Tomlin and hit D.K. Metcalfe down the field. And that's going to be the difference. I'm not seeing it. Yeah. Just not a thing. It's not a thing. It's not a thing.

Simon, it's not a thing. I like to move, though, for them. And we'll give some flowers to our guy, Peter King, where I told you two months. ago, Peter King said that he thought Roger was going to go to the Steelers. And it's like, clearly the Steelers have been putting out there. They like him that long ago. For Peter King, who doesn't say much in the media, it would come out and say that. So, you know, that was a big deal to me.

I think it's another spot of, yeah, they're not going to win a Super Bowl because of it. But I feel like Chris has nailed it. Like, we're not betting the under on their win total this year. Like that's the exact quarterback they get in there to somehow get to nine or 10 wins. Like this is the perfect match for them. And if he doesn't go there, it sucks for them because they're probably still going to get to the seven wins somehow. It doesn't matter who the quarterback is going to be, even if there's, you know, Mason Rudolph,

wherever they bring in there. But it's not to deal with them as we. It's a Tomlin magic, man. It's just crazy how he can just take trash and make it work. It's the same reason Russell Wilson is radioactive right now. No one's signed him, right? No one actually believes in. No one understands how that man wants so many games.

was that Steelers team last year. It's all part of that Steelers' magic. So yeah, going back to these different teams and how they run their organization, there's just some teams, Chad, they're just dumb and they overthink. I mean, the biggest one that jumped out to me has to be the Giants, right?

This off-season, the Giants just sign Slayton, a wire receiver two to $39, $38 million. Three years, $38 million. That's the same amount they passed on Payne's Sequin the year before. So it's like none of these things make sense when you really break it down to its core. Because these teams just overthinks stuff.

And like we talk all the time, the salary cap is just going to keep going up. So people will be like, did you see how much so-and-so got paid? Yeah, it looks stupid on paper. But it's like the salary cap just keeps going up. That's why, you know, as an Eagles fan, I think this is the first offseason of my life

that we are the team that is just losing people left and right while not bringing anybody in. And honestly, it's the greatest feeling in the world. It's like, holy shit. we are the best one of the best drafting teams in football that all we're so good all we can do is sign our own guys and we have to let other guys walk where even last year our two Super Bowl winning moves were Zach Braun and Seekwon Barkley two free agent signings at this time of year so to me that's for a lot of teams out there where like you know we poo poo for agent signings shit does matter if you have the right GM and making the right moves these are the type of things that can set you up for Super Bowl but on the flip side you can set your team back four or five years in a really bad agency move where you're spending all this money like Tennessee last year. Think of Tennessee

that you spent all that money, Chad, just to be the number one pick. It's just that's what's so brutal about this time of year. It's like I don't want to shit on everyone's team. But they're sharing teams you look at side out of it. You're just like, man, they're going to be the exact same spot four or five years cutting these guys on these big contracts. And it's just bad

money spending. So I don't know how you view it, but I'm of that mentality of there's some teams that are nailing it like the Bears and there's other teams you're just like this team is going to be spending their tires for another three, four years, like New Orleans Saints and a couple of other teams. It's clear, you and I talked about this a couple weeks ago. It's clear there are franchises you just don't want to be a fan of right now. The Saints, the Browns, the Titans, like, these are teams that are flailing.

They don't know what they're doing. They don't have the personnel in their executive suites to be making the decisions to help put them in a position to be successful five years down the road. Howie Roseman, I feel like he is sitting in his office in Philadelphia. He's looking at his board and feeling so good about the position he has put his team in. Because, yeah, they've lost CJ Gardner Johnson. They are losing Milton Williams. But he has loaded his defensive line.

He has loaded his defensive backfield. He's got Cooper DeGine. right he's got quinine on Mitchell like he has made such good moves and he's probably looking at this thinking I know how to draft I know what I'm looking for in a player I will be able to backfill these roles

as people price themselves out and get their big mega deals elsewhere and we will be totally fine I feel like the Eagles are flying high yeah you didn't hesitate either which I give tons of credit to highway where he paid the guys where other teams

Like the Bengals, I mean, talk about disaster, right? Like, they couldn't get the deal with them done last year with Chase. Now it's going to be another extra 20, 30 million on top of whatever he was asking last year. T. Higgins, I don't even think whatever they throw to him, I think he's going to walk regardless. He fucking hates the Bengals. Like the fact they tagged him again. And someone put up a great stat of Joe Burrow and Hertz got a contract in the same offseason. The Eagles have spent like 300 million since then on players to re-sign to their team.

that Bengals have spent like 20, 30 million. So it just shows you how stupid these franchises can be where, you know, you just need to make the money work. But I'm with you in the sense that, you know, obviously how he's nailing this offseason. But, you know, we talk all the time. There's moves that teams make that are terrible. Like we had a couple signings last year of guys that we're paying $20 million to that never touched the field for us.

And that's just how it is, right? You're not always going to nail. You don't win them all. Exactly. And I think people will get to- It's not 100%. It's probabilistic. And people get too obsessed with the misses where it's like on your team success is making the playoffs.

I know people don't want to hear that, but it really is. I know it's like, why I want more, right? If you're a fan of the bills and Josh Allen, you're like, take the MVP. I could give two shits about winning the MVP. I won a Super Bowl. Like I get that perspective. But take a deep breath. You could be the fucking Jets.

So that's what I always try to tell people where it's like, yeah, you want to win the Super Bowl with the bills? Of course. You want to be nothing irrelevant for 30, 40 years? Like you want people still talking about Joe fucking Namath? No. Like that's literally living in hell. So that's why I always try to have perspective of this where it's like, you know, this, this Bill's team, you know, they had a couple moves this offseason that you're like,

I don't know what they're doing. Then they come in, they sign that contract with Josh Allen. You're like, that's why they're a great organization, right? They got Josh Allen to take a great deal, left some money at the table to go get other guys. And it's like, that's what great teams do. They don't give Dak Prescott $65 million at the last minute to come play for them. it's like you really are seeing which teams are going to keep going up and which teams just feel like they're going to keep going down. That's the most interesting part of the off season. You kind of

kind of see the writing on the wall at this point. Simon, before NFL free agency officially kicks off, fans are treated to an even more exciting period, the legal tampering period. This thrilling two-day extravaganza lets teams and agents discuss free agents and agree to terms before deals can legally be signed. And all of that hoopla reminds me of what we do right here during every episode on behalf of our beloved sponsor Tommy John. We can't make you change your life for the better, but we can speak directly to you through your phone, through your devices, and offer you the assurances of best in class underwear and casual essentials that only Tommy John can provide. These ad reads are our legal tampering, period. Be your own best representative. Be your own

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You know, wasn't as easy, Simon. Yeah. What are you laughing at? Just I love Matt Mitchell in his comments. He just wrote feedback as a gift. He's the best. That's right.

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now. Is it enough to just consistently be good and make the playoffs? want more or are the expectations too high, when is it time to blow it up? And are the Steelers there? Do you think, no? So I think the thing that people don't get, and it's frustrating as a fan when your team is kind of stuck in that, you know, quote unquote, purgatory, but it's really like the upper class purgatory. If you're making the playoffs every year or finishing with a 500 or better record, I think with

the Steelers, it's just really come down to. they haven't had the quarterback. And you're not going to, you're not, you could win it because of other guys, but not without a quarterback, you know, like the Eagles got through a lot of the year,

Jaywin Hertz, sometimes he didn't have to do much. A lot of the time, he didn't have to do much. But when it counted, Jaywin Hertz was elite. And that's just, that's the Eagles.

And that speaks to Howie Roseman. The Steers just haven't really had that. They, you know, they got one with, with Big Ben. They were in a, couple there and then it just got a lot worse. So the thing about a high floor is, if you want a

high ceiling, if you're locking in a high floor, then, you know, your ceiling's going to be higher because, you know, it's correlated. Like at the end of the day, I would much rather be the, be the Steelers and just be like a quarterback away, you know, every year, then kind of have no, you know, do like be the the giants who I think ownership has just meddled ever since the end of it got really bad at the end of Elon Manning's career after he had one of those couple and then around that benching the time they benched him for gino like everything just unraveled there and you can see it the jets have been the same way the last couple of decades you know they keep throwing the same thing at the wall in different ways and just doesn't stick so uh I don't think the

steal I think the stealers are a model of organization, but unfortunately, this is why, you know, Josh Allen got $330 million, and we're over here saying, you know, he left money on the table, right? Because that's how much quarterbacks do matter for certain teams. And, you know, they, that's how much they do matter in general. But for a team like the Steelers, that, that it meant everything because that's the difference, you know, they're trotting out Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, the ghost of Russell Wilson, and Mason Rudolph. Like that's why the Steelers aren't going.

Doug Hodges. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So that's, that's really what it is. But yeah, there's teams, like we saw with the Giants. Joe Shane has no idea. He makes some moves that turn out good. But when he starts going through his thought processes,

and I'm sure this has a lot to do with ownership too, and there's things we're not seeing, but it's just, a lot of these moves just don't quite make sense. sense to me. And then a lot of them are just kind of fixing other things. And, you know, I even like the, like, now you sign a Palson Adibo, but like, what if you don't, like, I don't, you know, I would want to put myself in position to where if I didn't get a quarterback, like, I could just take Hunter. And I don't, I don't know if you still do that now. So, like, it's, I just think, I just think there's a lot going on with ownership. And that's why the Giants and the Jets, you know,

we heard baton ratings and things like that. Those two teams in particular, um, that, that, That's why you keep seeing them just struggle for the better part of a couple of decades now. Josh Allen got a quarter of a billion dollars guaranteed. Guaranteed. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way.

And by the way, when he can go for a new contract, he's going to be 32 years old. He could make half a billion dollars in real money over the next eight years. years guaranteed. Imagine that. Just from football, just from football, he could end up with $500 million. And just from my perspective of, like we're talking about the quarterback series,

that's the beautiful thing about football is you don't need Josh Allen. Usually Josh Allen doesn't get you shit in football, right? Like we've seen it time and time again, these great quarterbacks, it's not their fault, right? Because it is a team sport, but there's so much he goes into it.

In that fact that, you know, Right now in the NFL, we're in a weird spot, Chad, where we've had a run of dynasties, right? We've had the chiefs in the Patriots dynasty. So right now, you know, if you want to count Russell Wilson to start in the league, we have four quarterbacks that are starters that have won Super Bowls and football right now, right? Stafford, Mahomes, Hertz, and Russell Wilson. That's really unique. Like, there's 32 teams.

There's only four starters. That is an insane stat. Yeah. And like that kind of things, because I want to bring people in perspective of, it's so tough to get there and actually do it. Like, you need so much. fucking luck. I mean, think about the shape of a football.

It's the weirish-shaped ball in all a major sports. You don't know which way that fucking thing's gonna bounce. Like, you know, even hang around Eagles fans, how cocky they are, talking about all the fumbles we got

and the playoffs and how that helped us get to the Super Bowl. It's like, they don't know where that ball is going to bounce and you punch that shit out. Like,

it's all this random things that add up to them getting to the Super Bowl and winning it. And obviously, you know, that was a crazy run of. They had the most points ever in that Super Bowl history error

of points in the playoffs, right? That was a very unique team. But at the core of football, this is why I never get all these different teams in the moves they make. We've had years of Jimmy Garapolo making it to a fucking Super Bowl. Brock Purdy made it to a Super Bowl. Like you can make it there with below average quarterbacks that are trying to buy really good talent on their teams. And I think, you know, the greatest team and player ever in my mind of this example are those Eli Manning giant teams, right? He never made the playoffs and did anything. But he did make, make it, he won fucking Super Bowls.

And that was the kind of thing where that team drafted right on their D-Line. They had Spags as a D-Corpsator. And then they had E-Line who had that clutch gene with Plaxico. And they had a good run game. All those things add into it. But it's like too many of these teams want to be perfect, right? They want to make the perfect team get a top five quarterback and make it all work. You don't need all that in football.

Like there's so much that goes into it. So that's why I think we're in a weird spot right now where these teams are, you know, they're chasing different teams trying to copy their what they, how they built their teams out. I told you last year, I had heard from people in the Eagle Eagle organization that they were going to copy the 49ers. When they saw what Christian McCaffrey did to that offense,

Howie, who has never paid a running back in his whole life, so I don't fucking care. The NFL has changed. Two high safeties is a real thing. I'm going out there. I'm getting what I think is the best running back in football. I mean, I'm sure you've seen all the conferences,

him talking to Saquan. It's like, he literally said to the dude, you're the reason we just won the Super Bowl. Like you were the difference that we needed that we didn't have two years. years ago. And teams out there that wanted to do it this year, there was no running back out there to do that. Now, we have this draft coming up where Gentry and there's a couple

guys out there that I think are game changers. But you definitely saw this year in the Frasagency class that teams weren't going to be like, okay, there's a Sequin, there's Derek Henry out there because there isn't. You've seen a pullback and like we talked about, they've attacked the offensive line, the defensive lines because to me this draft class has really good running backs. So what's going to be interesting in this draft coming up, Does Gentry go in the top 10? Do teams reach for him because they think they're a piece away? You're a bear's team, Chad.

I wouldn't hate them taking him. Like there's certain teams I feel like could add him and they're going to be in the same position as what we've seen. This Eagles team, Detroit, I mean, look what they've done getting running backs, right? That's kind of changed the whole organization. So I do think that we're into this weird time where people are so obsessed with quarterbacks. Like we all are. It's fun.

Make a top five, top 10 list. When it really does matter all these other pieces. I've been so important. I would love your Chris's view on that if he's got a view on these run-deback classes coming out. Well, yeah, the first thing I was going to bring up was, yeah, Genti is the favorite now to go to the Chicago Bears, which because they address their offensive line,

you know, everyone thought they're going to take offensive line. Now they have some options. So totally agree. I think, like I said, at the end of the day with the Bears is going to come down to Caleb Williams. That's the guy who has shown it and we know he has a talent, but he hasn't proven it yet. They're like, ask Jacksonville, you know, how they're doing with that.

So like, that's, that's, that's, the bears have everything around them, I think. But the one I was going to bring up since we were talking about Josh Allen and just how important these running backs are in the playoffs, what are the bills lean on? It wasn't Josh Allen, uh, throwing the football. It was James Cook, who turned into an absolute monster. And the, every week it seemed like James Cook was undervalued, even in the touchdown market, which is a notoriously inflated market, you know, he was under value.

And it's because they saw something in James Cook. You know, he got a lot more physical. He had the speed. He can catch it and run. And that's a big thing. Those three down backs are coming back in a vogue a little bit. And then the bills also had Ty Johnson coming out of nowhere playing really well, made that crazy catch against the Broncos in the playoffs.

So I think running backs are, it kind of got to that. low point in a market where I think they had like a conference or a meeting with all of them at one point and try to figure out how they can increase their value. Well, uh, I think they have. So the fact that we're talking about Ashton Jentzy, as good as he's been, you know, usually those kind of running backs is like, all right, you know, they're great in college. And then, uh, everyone's still talking about, you know, pick 20, pick 30 second round. Nah, Jentzy is like, they're talking about him going fifth, sixth even. So, uh, yeah, I, I think, the Eagles kind of paved away with one of the,

probably the best GM in the game, given Sequin Barkley, a massive deal, and it worked out. And then the bills we saw them mean on James Cook, even when they had Josh Allen. And every week we're like, where's Cooper?

Where's, you know, who's going to, where's Dawn Kincaid? Where's all these guys? James Cook and Todd Johnson. So, yeah, and the Ravens. Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry. So.

Raybon. Who do you think is, Simon, I want you to answer this too. The Washington commanders last year, they blew up the league. Jaden Daniels was brilliant. Obviously, you mentioned we started the show talking about Laramie Tunsell going to the commanders. But what was interesting about the commanders, obviously it was Jaden Daniels' performance, but their willingness to lean into the analytics in high leverage situations,

especially on fourth downs, especially on fourth end, three, four, five in that range, way outside of the red zone, doing it consistently. Explosive plays coming from Jaden Daniels. It's funny, we talk about the NFL. You watch these games, and like every single week, whether it's Raybon, Kurner, me, Simon, Stucky, we're talking about these games as if they will play out according to sort of methodical pacing, what we expect to be normalized play calling, what we expect to be perfect play and teams to play in the manner in which the overall stats say they're going to play,

it always comes down to the explosive play. It comes down to the fourth down call. It comes down to the deep out. It comes down to the blown coverage, whatever it is. That's why betting is exciting because all of a sudden you're like, oh, I was only one play away or oh, I got this play, right? Those are the difference makers when you're talking about betting. Who will be the commanders of this season, the team that leans into the high leverage situations? I got an answer. Give it to me. It's a fucking podcast. Give me your answer. It's not just, it's not just that. It's I think they have the talent to. And think about it like this. Who's been the best team? against the spread over the past few years.

It's been the Detroit Lions, right? They've just been, they've just been cover machines. The team that I think, last year I was saying they were kind of a poor man's lions, but they have the talent to be just as good. Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield. Interesting.

I was in that time. Dude, that was not even a moment. Probably Irving could be the next take on or somebody like that. they got an offensive line. They got a secondary. They, you know, they took some stabs at past rush with Reddick. And but, and they got a defensive coach. So you don't worry too much about the defense.

Defense has pieces. I mean, what, like, what stopping the bucks from being like Mayfield bucks? The, in the, be for being the golf lines who everyone thought was going to be in the Super Bowl over the Eagles last year. That's the team that I think is just severely overlooked. Simon, what do you think of that? I love it. People are going to hate this because this feels like a way too heavy bear's podcast, but I have to go with the bears. Like this is the team that I, all I do is my favorite thing to bet it is on second year players, right? And especially quarterbacks making that second year jump.

And we've seen it time and time again where it's like guys have all the tools in the world. They have a bad season. People leave them for dead. And then they second year, someone like Caleb William should take that next step. The guy has all the talent in the world. Now he has some good coaching, an offensive line, a system I think he's going to really thrive in. And again, I hope they get gentry. Like to me, that would be an insane weapon to add to that team to have with Caleb Williams for the next five to 10 years in that backfield. And, you know, this is a team that me and chat talked at Nogamette about it last year. They were four and two when they lost that Hell Mary game against the commanders. Like this was a team that was on a trajectory.

And we said after they lost it, I said, this is a young team. We're going to find out a lot about the Chicago team. They're either going to thrive and bounce back from this or they will collapse under their own weight the rest of the season. And that's what they did. But they ended the season on such a high mark. Like that, I know it sounds stupid. That was a huge win for Green Bay against Green Bay and for Caleb Williams in my mind going to the offseason because I think he felt what it could be like to be a team that should be beating Green Bay at Green Bay. that can have these big wins.

So this is the team that I love their offseason. They're going to have a last place schedule. And I think it lines up right for them that, you know, just like last year, everyone's going to be talking about Detroit. Everything was going to be talking about Green Bay. And last year we had a lot of people that were coming in on this Bears team for the excitement. It doesn't feel like that as we are here in March, right? There are professionals like me who like the Bears.

But I'm saying the general public, I don't turn on ESPN or FS1 all day. And all they're talking about is the Bears. Like they were at this point last. year heading into the draft. So that's a team that I am excited to buy low on. I'm going to bet their win total over. I just, I love that all lines up for the year two bump for Caleb Williams and bringing in such a great offensive mind in Johnson. So it's like I can't help myself. Like this is a team I always kind of love secretly just because, you know, me and Chad just always kind of love the Bears team. Obviously for Chad has his reasons. But we admitted to it. We had a huge whiff on them two years ago

with Justin Fields. This feels totally different than Justin Fields year two. Where We fell in love with Justin Fields athleticism in year one. Meachad bet on that upside. And we were betting them 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl people. Like that's where we were at them two years ago. I'm in the same spot now. It's like I feel like they're better. They're improved.

Am I better than the Super Bowl futures? Fuck no. I think it's like 40 to 1 now in most books. There's no value there at this point. But for them to shock this division and pull it off, I think it's a real thing. Like this is going to be a legit good team that I don't think enough people are looking into it right now because they're what five and twelve last year i get it it's just to me these are the teams i love that bet on the new coach year two quarterback whole new offensive line like it's

it's all lined up there chaffer this can take a huge year to step up in this bears team so that's that's definitely team just like what chris talked about teams we try to eye for that no one's really talking about tampa's the same boat no one's talking about even though they won the division last year i feel like it's the same thing for the bears this coming year no one's talking about them enough where I think they're going to take a major step that people aren't aware of. Well, look, I'm glad you said it. I didn't want to be the one who said when I thought of this question and I put it in the script, my answer to this was going to be the bears because of Ben Johnson, right?

Like he clearly, when he was with the Lions as the play caller, was comfortable in these situations that go lean into the analytics and what the probabilistic thinking and what the percentages is not on what the conventional wisdom is that looks like the safer play that is going to make you comfortable if you miss it. That to me was the answer. I kind of like Rayba, but it also felt a little cliche because of course like Ben Johnson, he's the guy. I like Raybon's answer too. Matt Mitchell, we've got to make a note. I feel like we have to do a future episode that is focused a lot on the breaking down of. this question and then combining it with will there be too much examination of rules changes

and how it made coaches think about fourth down and kicking long field goals versus going forward and then your half of the field from the impact of the kickoff changes I want to unpack that there's more meat on the bone teasing a future episode we'll get Raybon back Kroener, Stucky, Nick Giffin, Simon, a little roundtable. Just making a note. People are going to be excited about that. Give Matt Mitchell your feedback.

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Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, Michael's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel

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And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was funny. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

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