The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Futures + Super Bowl Recap

Episode Date: February 14, 2023

Happy Valentines Day to bettors everywhere, as a heartbroken Simon Hunter joins his Action Network colleague Chad Millman to recap a difficult Super Bowl ending for Philadelphia Eagles fans and bettors. Luckily, they are able to turn the page quickly, diving into 2023 NFL futures bets they like across the league, from the Chicago Bears to the Houston Texans, and everything in between. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It's NFL playoff time and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandwell. I love betting with Fandwell because their app is safe, secure, and easy to use, and because they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. And when I win with Fanduel, I get paid fast. Plus, Fanduel is now live in Ohio.

So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to start making every moment more. Must be 21 or older and in select state. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona, 1-88-78-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-7-9-0-7-0-stop in Connecticut. 1-8009 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-7-0 stop in Louisiana.

Visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland. 1-8-8-N-Y or text, Hope NY-467-369 in New York, 1-800-522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Welcome to all the Amper's. We are live.

Reminder, you want to get the show earlier than ever. Like the favorites pod in Apple Podcasts. Subscribe in Apple Podcasts. You will get the favorites earlier than anybody else who's listening to it in podcast form. It is the Tuesday after the Super Bowl. Amazing game. really fascinating me and my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, Eagles fan. We're going to break it down.

We're going to give them like three minutes just to vent, make it a safe space. We're also going to get into futures. That's going to be the majority of what we're talking about today. Turn in the page. It's already 2023, 2024. Simon and I have already made one futures bet. I know that I know of that he made. I made it as well.

Simon. Hello, so I'm in. Hello, Chad. My brother. I feel for you, man. I do. Also, with the NFL season over, all eyes on the sporting world

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download the GameTime app and redeem code favorites for $20 off your first purchased terms apply. Again, download the app and enter code favorites. That's F-A-V-O-R-I-T-E-S for $20 off. Download game time today, last-minute tickets, lowest price, guaranteed. personally I can say I've used game time a boatload love it fantastic also let me recap you love the igles yeah you love the Eagles so much that you said on Sunday when we did convince me that you were not even going to be able to watch the game you were going to have to

listen to it on the radio and then maybe depending on what happened you'd watch the game after. Tell us how you experienced this game. Well, I'll start off by saying I've become comfortably numb, Chad. You sound terrible. You sound so sad. You don't have your pep. I'm hurt. I am. I'm trying to put on a brave face. I think I'll be better as we get going here. Woo, it hurts. I would say I wouldn't have watched the game, but I manned up, smack myself around yesterday when I woke up. Because I try to be a glass half full guy and I was like, you got to watch the games. I can't come on here. Give out opinions on a game. I didn't watch because the radio is just different. Like the radio, I listen to 94-1 WIP, which is a Philadelphia station. So everything's

skewed Philly. So I had the most skewed experience a person could have of the experience. So I had to watch it. Did the all 22. It hurts where you're so close. I think most fans get that where if you get blown out, it's whatever, right? You're just like, we were never in it. We were just happy to be there. I'm trying to be happy to be there, guy. Like, it's the same thing. is the Phillies where like the Phillies coming to the season, whatever they were, 35 or 40 to 1 to make a World Series. Just happy to be there. Not really expectations for the Phillies. Had the same mindset with this Eagles team, but that changes when the Eagles are the one seat all year. And the team is the best team in my model. And it's just a really good feeling up 10 at half.

I think you would attest to that if you're an Eagles backer. But that's why I love football. It's the ultimate chess match in different pieces and different little things. And we saw, you know, the grand master, Andy Reid, he really stepped up in a second half where he was staring at one in three in his career in the Super Bowl, dead in the face. And he bounced back. I mean, he's two and two now in a Super Bowl. Just a true hat tip to Andy. As much I want to credit, Mahomes, my homes was incredible.

After rewatching the game, the All-22, it's the scheme, man. The scheme was incredible. And I don't know when you want to start the timer for me bitching because I'm ready to get into Philly mood. But I just want to pay, we're going to be paying, obviously, a lot of respects here to the Chief's team. But as a fan of football, can't ask for a better game, Chad. We literally had a 35-35 game in the fourth quarter with two minutes to go.

As a football fan, a guy who wants the sport to grow, it's everything I dream. I love in the big game, the best of the best show up. And that's exact, I think, of all of us fans can say. Hertz was as best as he could be. Mahomes and that offensive scheme was the best of it could be. So, yeah, honestly, he was one of the better Super Bowls I've ever watched. I love that Hertz didn't lose it. That he was amazing.

Nobody on the Eagles lost it. Forget about the call on Bradbury. I actually thought the Eagles as players handled everything with such class after the game. Yeah. And A, the fact that he admitted he held them, which was interesting and novel. B, none of the players were like, yeah, that was the play that ended it for us. It is a 60-minute game. It was a brilliant game.

And almost like exactly what we thought would have to happen for the chiefs to win happened. We talked about it for two weeks, had nauseam. quarterback head coach versus roster. What are we talking about here? And in the first half, it was all roster. Yeah. And in the second half, it was all quarterback head coach. It was astonishing.

Adjustments. It was literally adjustments. Yeah, it was astonishing. And, you know, in the first half, as Eagles backers, which we were, we were feeling really good because it was playing to script. they were running the ball with ease. Jalen Hertz on RPO's was finding the holes.

Kenneth Gainwell was like the good compliment. I don't know what happened with Miles Sanders if he got hurt early on, but he was really a non-factor. The Chiefs defensively were having a really hard time against Hertz as a whole. And then in the second half, everything changed.

The Eagles defense couldn't do anything. It really became a Holmes Andy Reed Clinic just astonishing. Great game. Great game. I mean, the interesting thing is, like you just said, it's a tale of two halves where as much shit as I love to give to the Eagles defense,

the first half was so much about what the offense wanted the game to be, which was they would ball control, and you're hoping for a three and out from the Chiefs, and that's how you kind of flip the game, where that's what that first half was. I mean, it was 14-7, it was third and one. The Eagles had the ball at midfield. They were about to go into the Chief's territory. They had that false start.

Hart, Hertz had the fumble. You know, we could say that changed the game. That really wasn't the game changer, right? The Eagles were up 24, 14 and a half. Would the chiefs have eight minutes or something crazy like that of offensive time on the field? So they obviously went into half and they just pretty much told the defense, keep doing what we're doing, which was selling out to stop the run and allowing one-on-one matchups and saying let Hertz beat us. We're not going to let them run the ball.

So to me, Miles, game was. well, they couldn't really get much going because all those holes were clogged. The teams really weren't, they really weren't respecting Hertz. And Hertz was kind of beating them. Like, I mean, he was going up and down the field. And my biggest issue with the Eagles was Siriani played that first half like it was a Super Bowl. Like he was very aggressive where Andy Reid was the timid one, right? He kicked that field goal on fourth down, which if they would have lost, I'm going to say almost everyone would have gone through.

That's kind of that easy, low-hanging fruit everyone would have attacked him for. I mean, it's hard to really make a judgment call there, but of course we all agree, you should have gone for it. Eagles on fourth and two, to me, was the game change of the game. They had a fourth and two. I swore they were going to fake it. I really did think they were going to fake it there, and said they punted, and we saw it happen.

They took all that return all way down. At the time, the Eagles were up one, that flipped it. They got the touchdown there. To me, that was where Sariani lost that game. You're in a game. You're playing crazy and aggressive. your defense, again, I don't want to hate on them, Chad, but I said it coming into it. They were going to struggle with that zone against his past game.

That's why I just love the over. I thought to myself, I already know the Eagles are going to get the points. I just thought that the Chiefs were able to score against this Eagles defense. Now, did I see them putting up 38? No, I did not. That whole scheme they did, blocking scheme against that Eagles front. They got pressures, right? They got their hands close to them.

But it's my homes. It's why it makes them so special in that pocket. He's just, he can weave in and out of it. And to counteract those guys run up the field, they ran the ball really well. So I think, what, Mahomes threw for 170, if that, it was just a really well smart coach game. So as an Eagles fan, yes, I'm pissed off about the call. I think any fan base would be. I mean, I don't know how many people I had to mute that we work with Chad, that are cheese fans.

But I couldn't stand them trying to defend the call. Just to me, I agree. That's a call you make there. If you watch every single play, that entire game, guys are grabbing. It's a high game, and I can read these stats to you. Eagles defense had players slip on 38% of Mahomes dropbacks. Five times they had multiple slippage on a play. The Chiefs only had 14% of times they drop back on defense if they slip.

So the Eagles were obviously affected by the slipping. They're grabbing a little bit. It's the end of the game in the fourth quarter. I think every fan that's an eagle fan right now is pissed because we wanted hurts to have that chance. I don't get why the NFL didn't want it either, where you're going to give my homes a three. All right, he's going to be up three and there's going to be two minutes left and the Eagles had no timeouts. To me, that would just be a nice dream scenario for Eagles fans and anyone that was watching that game of let the kid get a chance, right? Let, let Hurd's get a

chance. He was what, minus 350, minus 400 to be MVP had into the fourth quarter. So it was there for him and I feel bad that it was taken away from on a, I mean, just a soft call. Like, yes, he grabbed him a little. That ball was not going to be caught by him. Like, that was just a weird time to call that. So I think that's what sucks is Eagles fans are going to gravitate to that. But as a gambler to me, that's irrelevant. Like, that's going to happen. I'm just upset as an Eagles fan. I wanted to see Hertz get that touch. But we see it all the time. The refs, they factor in these games. So there are a bunch of spots. The Eagles, you could say they lost it to me. That fourth and two, fourth and three, the punt by Siriani. That was a coward move. And they deserved to have that ball were. turned on them because that was you're playing to win like in your mind you should think every time home gets the ball he's going to get seven the kid is a killer so I hated that they kind of went conservative in the second half for first half they played like a team that was trying to win a super bowl so um not going to be better because I'm I'm very lucky where Hurts showed up in the biggest game the kid's 24 25 like what am I about that bitch about having a young stud quarterback hell

know. So it's hurting. Like I'm hurting. I still haven't slept well. It's been two days. But I think in a week or two, I'll be all right. I just, it's still too much right now. I just like, you're there. You should have had a chance and it's gone. Simon, we're turning the page. Let's please. We're going on to the futures. Also, I got to say, NFL season is over. But the podcasts and the Betting continues. Betting happens every day of the year because there are sports every single day of the year. Listen to big bets on campus with three-man weave and Stucky from the Action Network. Listen to links and locks, our golf betting podcast.

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Before we move on, though, Chad, I got to know. How fuck did you feel for bed and that under within five minutes of that game starting? Sick to my stomach. Because I was just saying that. I was like, thank God. At least I don't have both because that would have been a blood bath. But, yeah, the Eagles first half, the over saved my ass a little bit. I mean, I took personally for the group, I did well, but.

Personally, yeah, my own personal bets lost about seven figures on. Eagle spread. One of those were I think the live money line would have been plus 350 or plus 400. And I tried to get some hedge down because I just was feeling nervous, made a couple of calls, but got pennies down and sucked. So I was like, well, I'm all in. I think we're going to win. And that was, again, that's the toughest thing to swallow, like, You got to listen to your elders.

I had a lot of guys saying to me, like, I love you with the over. Hate the Eagles side. Just stay away from the side. But, yeah, thank God for Eagles' first half. That was something that, you know, what did they finish year? 15 and 5 against the spread in the first half this year. So pretty special for Benton, Ben them first half this year.

Yeah, I had a terrible day on Super Bowl day. Got crushed, mainly because you and fucking Raybond had me convinced the Eagles were the right side. And you came after me all week for liking the chiefs, holding my position on the chief. You're a Philly guy. And like I went in on the Eagles on Sunday morning aggressively. And that ended up being the difference for me between. You must hear me. I kept saying Eagles first half.

Eagles first half. Yeah, that's it. Oh, that was right. I just missed it. I just missed those two words. Sunday night, here's where I was proud of you. And you put your big point pants on. We both did the same thing.

Yeah. get back in the water. We both bet the Bears. You bet them 80 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I got him 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. I'm not going to say anything. My bet was big enough. I needed approval.

And so it's futures time. Yeah. It's futures time. Yeah. With the Bears won. And we already touched on it, what, two, three weeks ago that we were both, just loving the spot of the bears of a team that has the quarterback and has a ton of money and they kind of have a plan. The only thing I think I already talked to about this. One move, I think you guys screwed up one was Roquan, to me, is a cornerstone piece.

And the fact you guys trade him to the Ravens and the Ravens gave him all the money, that to me is just a bad look to the Bears. Because the Ravens, they're one of the best for an offense of all football. So that might be the only mistake they really made last year. You can say what you want about the Claypool move. I get what they were trying to do. They're just trying to surround fields with more weapons, especially weapons of using the off season. But they messed up with the Jaguars probably made the right move.

Like getting Calvin Riddley at a discount and then letting them just chill for the year and not coming back this year with that wire receiving course. So this year was tough, Chad. They're not giving us the value like they were last year. I mean, that Jaguars at this point last year, we had them at 150 to 1. So if you can find the bear still at 100 to 1 or 80 to 1, that's actually a good value. Since we took that number, Chad, it's down now to 65 to 1. So it's one of those where me and Chad, do we really think that bears are going to win the Super Bowl?

No, of course we don't. It's all about taking positions. And if you listen to us last year in August, you still could have got the Jags at 120.1. But we also gave out the Chiefs at 11-1, and we gave out the Eagles, which at that point, I think they dropped the way down to 15 or 10 to 1. So that's just one of those where, you know, last year was kind of a unicorn year. Like a lot of the futures we gave out kind of came through in the positions. We're hoping for the same thing with this Bears team here, Chad.

I don't know what you're looking at, but for me, they were the chatter of London. Like when I was in England, a lot of guys talking bears, a lot of pros like bears. They like the value on the Bears. Wasn't shocking. We saw multiple thousand dollar bets come in as soon as the Super Bowl ended. And like, I was apart a few of them. you know, books aren't going to take more than a thousand bucks, especially on a long shot like that.

They don't need that much positioned against them in middle of February. But to me, with the Bears, I love all the things that's just in that division. Like we got a guy right now and Aaron Rogers, just in some dark hole right now, taking a bunch of drugs trying to figure out his next move for the next four days. We have Kirk Cousins, arguably one of the luckiest, best years we've ever seen of his career. I mean, in what world does anyone take in their over next year, right?

They had the greatest run ever of a one-scored team. So we saw a team with the Vikings had crazy high luck. If you looked at our rankings, bears were very unlucky last year, something I think is going to flip in their favor of next year. And then we end up on Detroit, which is arguably me and Chad's favorite team from last year. We loved Detroit. But are they overvalued at this point? Probably.

Like they're at 25 to 1 right now for the Super Bowl, a Detroit team that didn't even make the playoffs. So we're going to talk about a couple of teams here where we like to value. I wanted to take Detroit by 25 to 1, the same number as the Jaguars, which we think is clearly the best team in their division. I don't see that with Detroit. I don't think they're clearly the best team in this division. So we have a little bit of a cluster up the top.

We got Detroit, Vikings, and Green Bay. I all agree. They should all be close. The Bears are right there. They make a couple of the right moves this year. field stays healthy. I love this team, like especially everything they can put around him. So that says a non-fan, just someone going off of it.

I can't hear out Chad's viewing his bear team right now heading to the season. Well, a couple things. Number one, there's news breaking right now that the Arizona Cardinals are hiring Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon. Yesterday, the Colts officially hired the Eagles offensive coordinator. I don't think these hires move the needle for me at all. on the futures. I would also recommend everybody

who's looking for smart takes on futures. Brandon Anderson has a great story. Brandon was on with us on the Best Betts podcast right before the Super Bowl. Action Network analyst. He's got a great story

on Action Network right now. Download the app. You can read it there. Action Network.com. Love the Bears. The midway point of the NBA season is here and now is the perfect time to download Fandul

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I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. You know, it's funny, the lions are interesting as a comp, right? Because we love the lions last year. Yeah. So why don't we like the lions as much this year? Part of it is the number.

It's the number. I don't know that they have the ability to improve their defense as much as the bears have the ability to improve their defense. Just by virtue of they have the most salary cap room and they have the best draft. excuse me, best draft assets. So I think the bears can get better on defense faster than the lions. And I think the lions also, it's a fade. Not in a, I don't think the lions are going to be good,

but we were on that bad wagon last year. It paid off for us in terms of season win totals. I'm not going back to that because there's going to be no value in any respect on anything for the lions right now. Like the only reason I would say, sure, go ahead and bet the lines at 25 to 1 if you want it is because they're in the NFC. And we've seen it this year. The NFC is open.

I mean, all the great quarterbacks right now in the AFC, and that's why people will keep going, the lame excuse of, well, the Eagles haven't played anyone. It's like, oh, the NFC has a bunch of really good teams. They just don't have a bunch of really good quarterbacks. So I get people's position of that with them. But the fact that they're 25 to 1 on Fandul and the Vikings, which is basically the same team, is at 40 to 1, it just shows you public. perception.

Like the public want the lines to be much better. But there's really not that much difference. Like, yes, the Vikings have a first place schedule. But it's, we've seen it time and time again year to year. It's not that big of a difference. Like they're still in the same division. They're still pretty much playing the same schedule. Just the public loves the lions.

Like 25 to 1 on them is pretty crazy. How much? Here's a good point. How much does the public love the lions? The lions have the 10th shortest odds to win the Super Bowl on Fandole. right now. When is the last time the Detroit Lions had the 10th shortest odds to win the Super Bowl? I can't even imagine. I would need Evan Abrams to dig deep into the research to tell me that. And by the way, to your point about quarterbacks and the better quarterbacks, six of the top 10 teams are AFC teams.

It's not evenly split. Obviously, Niners, Eagles are – three and four in shortest odds. Cowboys are six and then lions are 10. I hope people understand what Chad just said there though. Like literally the betting public is all over the AFC where we're going to have crazy value. Just like the Eagles were crazy value last year in the NFC. It's the like they just don't learn their lesson, Chad. That's just how it is. So once again, they're going to be betting up all these numbers all just because QB's names. And we're going to find some good value here. Head into the summer on these NFC teams. It's just the way it is. Like you just said, that's crazy. The fact that, well, they moved SINC, but at one point it was Chiefs and Bills and then SINC

were the top three, best odds for Super Bowl. Yep. That's insane to me. Like, usually it would be the Eagles right there next to the Chiefs, but it's the public love for these quarterbacks. So pretty, pretty hilarious. If you, to me, the Cowboys are a waste. Like anything more than 20 20 to one with them, I would never bet on it. for Super Bowl future. So then at 15 to 1, that's purely name and fandal. Like that's a crazy number for a team that didn't even make into the conference championship game.

And they're not going to be better next year. Like, if anything, they're going to lose a couple of key players. That's crazy at that number. I don't know about you, but it's rare for me to take a team that, you know, I don't like the coach in Stanley, but the Chargers at 20 to 1, if I'm going to go with an AFC team at a long odds. I guess I would look at them, but they're just one of those. I just not going to do it yet. I'm just going to hope this number keeps coming down. But of all the teams that their odds are too low, I could see a Chargers just because the Chiefs won the Super Bowl, they're going to be

a public darling next year. Where last year, people kind of left, the Chiefs left for dead this year. It's an overreaction. The team just won the Super Bowl now. I think Matt Mitchell's one chiming in before the Chiefs played, I think it was Jaguar's chargers. He said, chargers were going to probably beat the Chiefs, I couldn't really hate on it. Because to me, they play each other in the regular season. They play each other really tough. So if I'm looking at a team in the AFC that has a little bit of sleeper potential, I guess it would be the Chargers.

But I just want to give that out to people right now. Like to me, if I'm going to lock up my money, I want to lock it up on a couple of long shots or a team that can make a QV move. Not really the Chargers are. They are what they are. They are what they are. I'm not about, look, I've given the Chargers my love. I've given the charges my money.

I've given the charges my faith. We know what they are, right? I don't believe in Brandon Staley as a decision maker. I don't think he puts his teams in a position to succeed, even if he was a little bit more thoughtful and more responsible with the play calling. This is a team that historically is snake-bitten, bad injuries, fluke injuries.

They can have the best defense in the world. I don't think they're going to be able to sustain through a season. They are not going to consistently be better than the chiefs in the chiefs division. I am off that bandwagon. And I think what's challenging for what you just laid out in terms of finding value in the NFC is that there, other than the bears, there aren't a lot of teams that I think have the right pieces in place. and I do think there's one AFC team that I'm going to get to, but I do want to run down the odds for some other NFC

NFC teams because I do think it's interesting, right? Like there's nobody, I think the Cowboys are frauds. Just, yes. Right? I can believe in the Niners because of Kyle Shanahan and because we saw enough from Brock Purdy that if he ends up being the guy possibly, right? You might not be back until the middle of the season.

They could make a trade. They could also make a trade. trade. Obviously we can believe in the Eagles. Lions at 30 to 1, come on. Like, we know we're not doing that because we don't think there's value there. Packers at 30 to 1, we're not doing because we don't know who the quarterback is going to be. Rams are semi-interesting because there is going to be some regression. They will be healthier, probably getting through sort of the Super Bowl hangover. Rams at I don't get that number, though. I don't get why it's lower. It's not lower. Like, again, I don't want to But it's too high sports books, but these lines are a bit tight.

Yeah, 37 to 1 right now, a fandal. It doesn't seem, it seems like they should be 50 to 1. Yeah. And then, like, the Giants are 42 to 1. Again, another team I wanted to take them. At 50 to 1, to me, that's good value in the Giants team, but either the pros are bet it or the books are just getting tight with the line. But I love the value in the Giants.

Like, we know the history of the NFC East, right? The same team hasn't won the division back-to-back years. I think it's up to 22 years now. We like the Giants upside. They're going to get a bunch of guys off the books next year and they'll be able to maybe build a more day-bole team that he wants to build. You know, coach of the year, Brian, he's a good guy.

He's got a good team. But 40 to 1, 42-1, mean chatting biting on that. So I'm hoping these numbers drop a little more because I just, the books, again, last year, we had a couple different obviously ugly ugly big long swings on some of these underdogs the only one that really made it with the Jaguar

so that's we're trying to be picky here to me the best value is still the Bears like 65 to 1 I still think they have some value left there so um we are getting some questions on AMP about one of the teams that the one AFC team I was going to bring up Cleveland Browns

we love the Cleveland Browns all year last year with Jacoby Brissette, we thought they were undervalued. We liked their defense. We love their offensive line. We love their running game. The question is, will Deshawn Watson be fully back? If he's fully back, 40 to 1, 45 to 1 for the Browns, that's to me a flyer to take in the AFC because he should be one of the best

quarterbacks in the AFC. Yeah. Yeah. And one other two more about to talk about. about Denver. These are two different, like two teams I do want to talk about, but they're both teams that it's impossible for me to give them to you guys right now in February. Like I just, I can't do it where I honestly lean more towards Denver to give out right now, but I'm just not because of, you know, obviously because of the division they're in.

So my issue with the Browns here is, I think Joe Burroughs is that dude. I think he really is that guy and he is such a game changer where it's kind of the same feeling I have with Josh in that division of like it's his. It really is his. Like we've seen it now two years in a row Joe Burrow win this division. So much BS going on in Baltimore. It's hard for me to want to be on their side too because it's like they're, we saw their defense. I mean, they're really good the Ravens, but they got a lot of issues right now, especially that Lamar is just not happy. So I want to take all that noise and back this Brown's team. But Watson showed us nothing, Chad. I think you're in agreement with me where he doesn't look like the man we were used to.

And two, two and a half years ago was a long time to be what he is, which was a guy that, yes, he was practicing and he was around, it's different than being in the game. And different beat writers I read out of the Browns, you know, at Ohio talking about the Browns is they were trying to put him in spots to challenge him, right? They were trying to make him be uncomfortable because they knew they were going to make the playoffs. They wanted to see what they had at him. and it's like really is that really what they wanted they didn't want to put him in easy spots just to get comfortable and running the offense so i think they're just saying those things to save face i just think he's not what we were used to so um for me and the browns i'm happy to wait for me and the browns i'm happy to wait for you're dropping a little more maybe when people maybe start betting cintz he up a little more maybe even the ravens if it is Lamar coming back so um i'll wait on that one with the browns um i'd love to hear your view is on it but well that's interesting I can't put the money on Deshaun at this point.

I was going to counter with what you just said that isn't this the time you make the bet because we don't know Deshaun and we did see him give us nothing and we like everything about that team. And to me it's no different than making a bet on the box hoping that they're going to trade for Tom Brady. We kind of don't know the quarterback situation. We think the quarterback situation.

That was at 60 to 1. No, but my point is. issue but like but then what's what's when is it low enough right like your your point is now until you just made the point that with the ravens with some money coming on the bangles the browns might drop a little bit more and that makes sense to me okay then i could wait but like they're 35 to one right now in jersey the browns browns yeah well that's that's shit that should be that's terrible right but i Yet I see 45 to 1 in Fandwell in Connecticut. Right.

So that's not, that's better. Right. So my point is, maybe we need to give people a threshold that are listening because it's, every book does it differently in every state. So, like 45, 50, I would touch it. But 35, that's, that's bad, that's bad value to me. So that's just, that's just my opinion of it where I don't want to touch it at 35 here in Jersey. All right.

Well, that's fair. Yeah. But to me, that's why I, that's why I was leaning into the Browns. I don't like Denver, you know, we've talked about. I loved Denver last year, obviously, with Russell Wilson and was quite wrong. They're our team this year, though. I got some bad news for you, Chad. They're literally going to be our team, brother.

Like, I'm all in on them. Because of Sean Dayton? We either can do it now. Yeah, we either can do that now or we can just wait until August and people hate me because I've just been talking about them for the last four months. But that's how my job is, people. I'm going to shit on a guy for a year. like I just did with Russ, and then I'll be all in on the following year,

because that's where the value shifts. So new coming to the year, if they made the right coaching move, I'd love this team because they have an incredible defense, and the offense is there. Like the pieces are there. They got the coach. And yeah, do I want to make fun of Sean Payton for having weird fake teeth? Kind of, but he's an offensive genius,

and you get that man in the room, say what you want about him. He is incredible, again, every little bit of ounce of talent out of the quarterback position. So if Russ is cooked, I don't care. I'm getting way better value this year than I did last year in betting it. So I think it's a good number. And I'm willing to pay at that price the fact that he might not be. Because we've seen it time and time again, most normal teams have a Super Bowl hangover.

And the Rams were the farst end of that spectrum, right? They completely shit the bed fell off and they have a top 10 pick, whatever it is. Or maybe they traded that pick away. I don't remember. Yeah, they don't have anything. So that's the far end of the spectrum. I think the chiefs are going to be that. But I think the chiefs will be closer to what the Bengals were this year,

which was a really good team, but that if the Ravens were healthy, the Ravens probably would have won that division, right? They were ahead of them by a couple of games. You saw the Bengals came out of the gate stumbling. That's kind of usually how it is with these Super Bowl teams coming off a year like that. So just in the value in that division,

I know I talked about the Chargers earlier, I would wait on the Chargers. I think you'll be able to get a better number later on. The Broncos, I'm just going to grab now, just because I think other pros are going to bet them. I just think the public might be off this, one, the pros are going to like it. It's just a good team that now has a really good coach. And they have an owner that wants to spend money. So these are all things I look at and shop around

once again. I've seen a couple 45 to ones out there on Denver on certain books. So it's Fandah right now. They're shown 35 to 1. I don't hate it. I just think if you can find a 40 to 1, 42 to 1, try to find that instead of taking 35. For the record, I am seeing on the Bears. Fandul has the shortest right now at 60 to 1. But in Connecticut, where there are two other books, one of them has them at 70 to 1, one of them has it at 80 to 1.

The one that has it at 70 to 1 had it at 100 to 1 until some kind of big player came in and made a bet that needed approval. Oh, yeah? Has dropped like a stone. Well, I hope you put a thousand on it, Because that would be a hell of a story to hit that, hit the Bears one on the Super Bowl.

Because I know that's one of those where I wouldn't let you head. Seven figures. Yeah, right. What, all right, we just talked about the Browns. We talked about the Broncos. We talked about the Bears. Any other teams whose names start with B that we should talk about just to make sure that we're thorough here?

I don't think when you talk about the bucks, I don't think when you talk about the bangles. Now, once again, if you want to throw bets on these teams, you believe in them, go for it. But I like to wait on these top teams. This time last year, the Chiefs were at 7-0-1, right? What happened in August? All the love had shifted from the Chiefs.

Everyone was talking down on them. And I gave them out literally a week before the season kicked off with Chad, I don't convince me at 11-0-1. So if you would have taken the Chiefs in February, you would have got shitter-up. and the books would have held your money for all those months. So these top teams, that's why I don't even give them out. If I'm going to have a book hold my money for the next year,

I want crazy odds like we had with the Jaguars last year. And it's such a year we don't have a Jaguars, but that was kind of a unicorn situation, right? We had a team in place and they had a coach step in, and the public hated them and the pros hated them, right? Like that was insane for them to be 150 to 1. Do I want to come in here and tell you to put money on the Texans? No, but I will be putting money on the Texans people,

If you're looking for my craziest long-shot bet, it's the Texans. I'm getting a couple of books that are giving me to $3001. Like, I got to do it. They got D'Amico Rines. I think Matt Mitchell's boy went there, right, Kingsbury? Did he officially sign there? I know they were having a conversation with him. I know that they talked with them and that they're, it's, to me, I think he'll take the job

because they'll be like, we'll let you take the quarterback. I know he has a whole relationship. What have been C.J. Strauss. I forgot which quarterback it is, but there's some guy that he's paired up with. They're just looking for a spark there. No, they hired Bobby Slovak, not Kleeve-Kingsbury. Oh, wow. That's a big deal.

Yeah, rumors are it would be Baltimore. Oh, Ravens. No, today the Ravens hired the former Georgia offensive coordinator. Yeah. I think I saw it before it came on. So to me with Houston, they're not going to win the Super Bowl. But in that division, at 300 to 1, if they get some young stud quarterback, we get a Cam Newton type. If we get this kid that is just a unicorn, that's what we're looking for.

We're just looking for a team that can steal a division. And, you know, Jaguars, not that I'm saying I gave up on it, but I pretty much did. I think they're two and seven at one point. and I was like, that was one of my dumber bets I've ever made. I mean, I talked that months about them in that division. I was looking like an idiot. Because that division was so bad, they were able to come all way back and win that division. So, yes, I think the Jags are still the best team that division, of course.

But Chad and I talk every year. There's always a team that comes in fourth in their division that flips the following year and somehow wins the division. And that's no secret people. Like, I'm telling you what we do every year. I'm looking for these teams that. can be the, that were the fourth seed in their division and can flip. So what did we have three years ago? We had the Bengals at 175 to 1 make it to the Super Bowl.

That was the freak of freaks. Last year we had 150 to 1, the Jaguars make it out of the first round into the second round, which was a big deal for them to make a divisional round. That was an easy position for me to hedge on, taking that chief's team. That's the same thing we're hoping for this year. I mean, Chad just talked about the Bears. If you can find 80 to 1, that's a nice position to have, especially you know the pros are hitting this number.

The fact that's come down so much other books, that's a good value. I'm not saying Houston's going to be the team that wins at all, but just if you got $10 in your account to win $300 on their future, throw it on there. Like to me, that's just a nice little value bet where if they hit on the quarterback, I think this team could be pretty good.

We saw at the end of the year there. They played teams tough, right? I mean, they took the Chiefs to overtime. I think they took Dallas down to the wire. They almost upset the Eagles in the middle of the season. And they have talent on that team. I'm telling you, football, it's not that far off a lot of these teams. A lot of these teams do have the guys on the team.

They just need the coaching and a couple A-list, blue chippers, stud athletes added to the team. They might be able to do that this year with Houston, right? They got the draft capital to make a move to get a quarterback. And I think they're going to go out there in a free agency and be able to attack that defense and keep adding to it. So I love D'Amico Ryan. I think he's a great coach. I'm excited for this Houston team. 300 to 1, Chad, longest shot bet of the offseason.

We'll be talking about them a bunch coming up until this year. Just sitting here in February, I think you just take it. Just in case they do hit on the quarterback, this will drop down to $200 to 1. Just in my opinion, if they hit in the first round, that's how much quarterback means in this league. So I'm just going to take the value here on Houston. Well, I got to tell you right now, I'm not seeing Houston any higher than $200 to 1, at least here in Connecticut. And consensus is around 130 to 1. But you mentioned.

I'll say, because she had there at the bottom 280. 280 to 1. Which book? Fandle. I don't know. You know, it's funny. In Connecticut, Fandu,

I have a hundred, you know, 130. That's shit. Yeah. Totally shit. And maybe that's part of regulations chat. I don't know.

Maybe you guys have some regulation stuff there, but I'll post it in the chat. Here's my question. You mentioned going from first to worst or worse to first. You mentioned the NFC East. The only other team, and this is the last thing I want to talk about, that sort of fits into that mold are the Washington commanders. I know.

We can't do it, though, with everything going on to sell their team. And it just feels like they got a lot of bullshit going on behind the scenes, right? Yep. I'm just saying. I'm just saying. We make crazy decisions on this podcast all the time. I'm right there with you, though. I was honestly looking at them too, and I just, I couldn't get there.

I just, I can't do it where I think they really are going to start that kid, Sam, a quarterback, which nothing against him. He had some moments. He was fun to watch. I don't think that kid's it. I just don't see him lasting. So that's one of those. I just want to call my shot early because you never know these quarterbacks.

But, yeah, just to me right now, if I'm going to type of any money, the NFC, says it's just going to be on this Giants team. I think they're the only team that has any value. All right. one thing I do want to remind people of, Evan Abrams did an amazing roundup of the NFL betting awards, the best against the spread team, best over under teams. So let me run down here. The best against the spread team, 2022, 2023, the New York football giants, their ATS was 14 and 5, including the playoffs.

$100 better was up $787. Wow. On the year for the Giants. This was the second best record as

underdogs in the last 20 years, 10 and 2. 2012 Rams were 11 and 3. The worst ATS team this year. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 412 and 1. final against the spread standings. New York football giants,

Detroit Lions, 12 and 5. Cincinnati Bengals, great run at the end of the year. Yeah. They went 13 and 6, 9ers, 13 and 7. Chargers, Chargers, 11, 6 and 1. The best over-under team,

Minnesota Vikings. Minnesota Vikings, over the last three seasons, the Vikings are 34, 16, and one to the over. Damn. I know. Pretty good, right? Top under team, New York Jets and Tennessee Titans.

They both finish the season 12 and 5 to the under. They profited, and I love Evan, they profited an extra $5 on the season due to a little more juice than on Tennessee's lines over the course of the season. The best over under teams. Minnesota Vikings Chicago Bears Detroit Lions

Philadelphia Eagles so good Best money line team New York football Giants they finished 10 8 and 1

straight up $100 better would win 827 627 on the year worst money line team Denver Broncos

Yeah Pretty good. Pretty good. One of the things you just think through all those different games this year. And it's just like they're sharing teams. I couldn't get right all year. And it was definitely the New York Giants. Just could not get a read on that team all year. No.

Not at all. Back in February, Patrick Mahomes was plus 700 to win the MVP. By the time the season got underway, he was plus 800, only behind Josh Allen. He had the second shortest preseason MVP odds for the winner since 2015 behind Tom Brady, who was plus 400. You mentioned the Super Bowl champs, Kansas City Chiefs. You gave it out, unconfixed me right before the season started. They were 10 to 1 entering the regular season, third in the NFL behind the bills and the Buccaneers.

Pretty good. Simon, we had a great year. It really was. One of those special years, especially where we gave out five picks every week, even including our buy week in the final week of the year. We finished 55, 30 and 33 against the spread, which obviously is pretty insane. We only had our worst week. It was two and three for the entire year, which was pretty insane.

We never done that before. And, you know, playoffs obviously didn't finish the way we wanted. Eagle's going to come through for us. but overall, just really fun. And hopefully next year, you can get just as lucky. Like, it's rare we both pick, oh, I don't know, you want to give out Denver as a one team, but either way, we both love the Chiefs and Eagles coming to the season.

Obviously, we won't probably be that lucky next year, but I'm already looking forward to next year, brother, and breaking down everything. I just can't believe, you know, people were joking me, like I made an NBA bet the other night. It's tough to stop. It really is. I don't know what I'm going to do these next couple weeks,

but I got to break away and get off the habit. Because it's just, you know what it is. I told you all the time. I little wake up and check lines in the other night. Last night, woke up, open up the action app, went to the NFL lines, and it was just a Super Bowl line there. There was no new line.

So it is officially the offseason. It is the darkest time of my life. So I'm going to miss doing the show weekly with you talking football. Well, fortunately, we'll still be doing the show twice weekly, as we have been. we're not back on Thursday. This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

Don't forget, subscribe directly to the favorites through Apple Podcasts through Spotify. Download us through those two platforms wherever you get your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift for Simon Hunter. For Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman.

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