The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Offseason Update

Episode Date: March 21, 2023

Even with March Madness in full swing, the NFL offseason never sleeps. Here to discuss the latest movements is Action Network NFL expert Chris Raybon, who joins Chad Millman and Simon Hunter to discuss the bets he's already making for the 2023 NFL season. Plus we hear about why the Bears are a great bet, and how the Seahawks could soar again soon. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Must be 21 or older and in select states. gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533342 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Orr slash chat in Connecticut, 1-8109 with it in Indiana. Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-8777-70 stop in Louisiana. visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland, 1-8778, Hope, NY, or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York, 1,800, 522-470-470 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

I am Chad Nellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined this episode, as I am with every episode, by my co-host, my BFF, my companion, professional better, who we will be talking about NFL futures with an NFL free agency and how maneuvers are impacting what we're thinking about. NFL, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Aloha, Chad.

Truly no offseason. It really is. It feels like every year the offseason gets smaller. NFL. Now it might be down to what one week after the Super Bowl and that's kind of it. It's just so much QB drama, so many moves. It really does never end now, which I love because I just love football. The NFL is so fucking greedy. They cannot give any other league. It's true. It's attention. I mean, the NBA is coming down to the end of another exciting season. Major League Baseball has players going to the World Baseball Classic and it's super fun.

for the players who can actually survive a game. March Madness actually has the highest ratings it's ever had. We've got Purdue getting knocked out. Kansas getting knocked out. We got people gambling. We got TCU with a backdoor bad beat for the ages. We got Princeton advancing. We got Fairley Dickinson advancing so far.

The coach got a new contract today to go to Iona and replace Rick Petino. No. And yet, it's NFL. And we're going to talk more about the NFL with my other BFF and Action Network OG. Chris Raybon, our NFL analyst. And NFL analyst limits him too much. He can't be confined because he does so much NBA too. Before we bring in Chris, I got to remind people, because I've been talking about game time for so many episodes, the fastest growing ticketing app in the United States. I love GameTime. Honestly, I use it all the time. And if you're looking to get out to a pro or college game this week or even a concert, Game Time has amazing last minute deals on tickets to all of these events. I'm actually going to open the Game Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut. And guess what, folks? I can go see tonight the Cleveland Cavaliers taking on the Brooklyn Nets. And I can get in the building for $25. That easy. I can go see playoff quality NBA action. Tonight live, $25. No matter where you live, download the GameTime app, get out and have some fun this week. You deserve it. And you can redeem code favorites for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, just download the app and enter

code favorites for $20 off. Download game time today. Last minute tickets, low price, guarantee. Raybon. Yo. Simon and I have been talking about the Bears. I bet the Bears at 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, the day after the Super Bowl. You've decided to join the bandwagon. Welcome to the club. Welcome to the podcast.

Thank you. Thank you. And yeah, I love the Bears this year. I mean, you look at this team and you got Justin Fields. I don't think there's any quarterback in the division that's going to be significant. significantly better than him. Obviously, you know, you have cousins, you know, Gough when he's at home. But this team not only improved their roster drastically in free agency. I mean, every player they signed was, you know, near the top of, you know, essentially in their prime that they signed.

You know, Nate Davis was the top 20 guard. You have DJ Moore, Deontze Foreman, DeMarcus Walker, Billings, Tremaine Edwins, T.J. Edwards. I mean, these guys were all playing very well last year. So if they can carry that over, that's just going to be a massive talent infusion. And then you still got 10 draft picks, four in the top 64.

You got the most cap space in the league. I really like this Chicago Bear team, especially because you look at Green Bay, they're not going to be the same. Minnesota was a bottom. 16 in terms of overall DVOA. They won a lot of one-score games. That usually regresses from one year to the next.

And then you got Detroit. And I think Detroit will be good as well. But Detroit is already priced up. You know, everyone's expected them to win a division already. So give me some Chicago, all of the futures. But I like their division odds at three to one. I really think they are in play this year. I think they're set up for now

and they're set up for the future. Sweet home, Chicago. Simon, I'm just giving you a chance to dip, brother. That's all it is. So tell me you're thinking, because I have a very specific question for you and for Matt Mitchell, Buffalo Bill Superfan Matt Mitchell,

about Edmonds, who Ray Bunn just mentioned, who the Bears signed from the Buffalo Bills. But give me your take. Yeah, I'm all in on them. I just, when the season ended, I knew the Bears were going to be a team that the line was going to run on just because the pros were going to be all over it.

Like the public, they're stupid. They'll never kind of understand what we're looking at here. Same thing as the Jags last year. Did I really think the Jaguars are going to win the Super Bowl when they were at 150 to 1? No, but me and Chad talked about. It's all about taking a position of a team that we thought they had a good chance of win in the division, which means they're going to be a four seed or better, and they'll be at home in the playoffs, which is a great position to hedge on.

So it's the same thing in the Bears here. It's not that it's all false. and end up place, Chad, but it's, it doesn't get much better than it's gone this offseason. You got the MVP, the Hall of Famer Rogers leaving your division, give me a replaced by an unproven kid and Jordan Love. You have the Vikings won the division. Now they're going to have to play a first place schedule. I mean, they're losing guys left and right as well, the Vikings.

So this Bears team, everything they've done this off season has been a positive. They're one of the few teams that, you know, most teams are going to have a couple of negatives. They're going to lose a couple of guys. you guys really have anything to lose, right? You kind of have had been bare bones. You had stripped everything down, but you had the key piece. And the key piece was a rookie that's talented

on the rookie pay scale at your quarterback position. Now, do we know how good of a thrower Justin Fields is? No, we don't. Well, you know he's an incredible one aspect of offense, which is running. So right there, that was a huge advantage for us. And the fact that they've now gone out and added a guy like DJ and Wardchat.

I don't know how bare fans are taking it, but as someone that loves watching DJ Morris, tape, he could easily be a top five wide receiver in football. And he's young as hell. So that's what I mean. There's just, you guys have done so much. I think Chris nailed on the head of name and all the guys you've added this offseason, the defensive side as well as the offensive line.

It's just all good, Chad. And you still have money to spend. That's the craziest part. You still have a couple more moves than make, even before this draft even happened. So we've seen, like Chad talked about, we got them at 100 to 1. We got them at 80 to 1. We got them at 70 to 1. They're down in most books now, 40 to 1, 35 to 1, to win the Super Bowl.

I could still see it keep dropping if they keep adding good pieces here. So, yeah, I'm trying to kind of trying to keep chatting in line here. But holy shit, the Bears are just killing it right now. You don't know how Bears fans feel. We're fucking losing it, Simon. Like my, I am trying so hard not to increase expectations. Because I do want to remember, Justin Fields is only in the second year of this offense. And the truth is they didn't even start implementing the kind of offense they're playing in the

latter half of the year until after that, I think it was week six or seven against Washington. And so Ann Fields was banged up at the end of the year. So he's barely played in the offense that they're going to be playing in when the year begins. But I will contend that Josh Allen was not Josh Allen until he got Stefan Dix. And so if to me, Josh Allen is the analog for Justin Fields. They say Justin Fields is inaccurate, but who's he throwing to? And so you give him a top flight receiver like DJ Moore, and I think all of a sudden you're changing his trajectory

and increasing his ability to be accurate because you're getting a guy who can catch the ball. His catch radius is greater. He's going to get to more balls that otherwise would not have been caught. So the downside, if I may. Raybound, you mentioned Tremaine Edmins. All week I've been getting that from Simon and from Matt Mitchell. This Tremaine Edmins, can you believe he's only 24 and has been in the league for 10 years already? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

Do you think he's a good player? Yes, yes. He's a good player. Now, he's the linebacker. And, you know, linebackers are a little tougher to judge sometimes. But I think he really took a step forward last year. Now, I thought last year was his best year. I didn't think he really had a great year until last year.

But, I mean, I think his coverage, his past coverage really improved last year. You know, I think he can do it all now. And if you look at, you know, and obviously this is not the end-all-be-all, but, you know, something like PFF grades, he was a top five linebacker last year, you know, right there, you know, him and T.J. Edwards are both top 10 guys in their grades. And Tremaine Evans had never had a grade. I don't even think he was average before last year. So a little bit of a one hit wonder, but, you know, the talent is there. And, you know, the tools are there. So you always kind of expected him to come into his own. But that's kind of the case across the board. For everyone the bear signed, you look at how they grade. You look at how they rated out top of their position. You look at how they were playing on tape last year, top of their position. And let me just say, why stop it, Josh Allen?

Why don't we compare Justin Fields to somebody who actually made it to a Super Bowl? J. Wen Hertz wasn't J.1 Hertz, till they got A.J. Brown. So. Oh, now Rayvon's just throwing shade at Matt Mitchell and the Buffalo Bills. Look, I will contend that the Buffalo Bills window, it's close. Like they are third in that conference behind the chiefs and the bangles right now.

I think the dolphins are nipping at their heels. I would be very worried if I were a Buffalo Bills fan right now. Matt Mitchell, all I'm seeing right now on the Zoom is we record this podcast is Matt Mitchell's smiling picture, a photo. And I'm very curious to know what his face looks like for real, but he won't come on the video. Simon, you can, you laughed when I said that about the Buffalo Bills, but I'm down on this team right now and I'm high on Tremaine Edmonds, but why are you and Matt Mitchell giving me such a hard time about the Tremaine Edmund signing?

Well, I'll just busting your balls because it's just so much money to give to the kid. I mean, I agree with Chris. I think last year was a great year for him, but they're paying him if he's going to be an all pro. So now he needs to be an all pro. Chad. And that's that's high expectations for the kid. But I'm, I'm completely out with you on the bills. I think the bills, they're still in the window to me. They still got all the key pieces there. Josh Allen was hurt. Like that's why people are taking a lot of shots of Josh Allen from last year. You can go back and watch the film. He changed his throwing style just because he was laboring on that elbow. So the bills, if this is how a lot of people feel like Chad does, this is the dream.

if you're a Bill's fan. Like last year, I shit on MLS season, not because I wanted to, but it's because in no world should they have been the favorites to win a Super Bowl. They're an unproven team that the public just fell in love with

because they felt like they were unlucky. This is even better. You want the public to be out on them. So as someone that wants to bet the bills, I hope the public feels like that, like the Chad does. And maybe they start 0 and 2, and I can get them at 14 to 1 or 15 to 1

to win the Super Bowl and that tough AFC. So to me, the bill is a will be. be a buy low if people feel this way because I'm with Chad. The people like the new toys and the Jets when they get Rogers, they're going to be the all-hyped team. I mean, we're seeing that 14 to 1 now. The Jets are 14 to 1. So that's just one of those things where the public is really stupid.

They kind of like the new toy and the Jets in that division. They're going to be the new toy. And again, I don't want to shit on the bill is too hard. But Chad's not too far off. Their window is closing very quickly here. So I think this year, maybe next year, maybe that. I'll be when the window closes, but I still think they're pulling out of it. I still put them as a top three, top two team in the AFC.

What do you think of my bill's hot take, Raybon? I think that when you look at the bills in a vacuum, you say they didn't get better any off season, but I don't think the Bengals got better. I think the Bengals got worse, and I think the Chiefs got worse. So it's kind of a wash there. And then you got the Jets. But first of all, the Jets are, like Simon said, they're already way too overpriced.

I mean, I went back and looked at the Packers odds entering the season after Rogers was coming off his MVP's over the last couple of years. And they were 12 to 1 and 20 to 1. So the Jets are 14 to 1, and Aaron Rogers coming off pretty much his worst season of the last 10, really, pretty much of his career. I mean, I think last season was worse than even some of those ones in the, you know, before he won the MVP, he was kind of falling off. So I think the Jets are way overpriced.

And just going back, you know, with Evans and the money they're paying them, you could do that when you got your quarterback on a rookie deer. And you got the most cap space in the league. You know, linebacker is not a premium position. But if you want to make sure to, you know, to, that, that, that, you know, you're good at that position, you could throw money at it when you got a quarterback at a rookie deal and kind of what the Bears have. So they're kind of a unique situation where I don't think some of these moves, you know, would work for another team, but for the Bears,

I think they work a lot more. When linebackers get to Chicago, they transform into monsters. That is just the way it goes. That is history, fellas. Let the old guy teach you a little bit about history. Tremaine Edmins will be an all pro this year because he will be the latest in the pantheon of the Monsters of the Midway. Are we not even going to give any love to Edwards? I love that.

Edward probably a better linebacker of the two. I mean, as good as Edmonds was last year, Edwards is, you know, he's been doing this. I'm so excited about Edwards. Like, to me, they have, in one fell swoop, an expensive swoop, rebuilt their linebacking core and solidified the middle of their defense. And I think it's outstanding.

I think Edwards was a phenomenal player for the Eagles last year, a great tuggler. Like Simon, you watched him more than I did. Yeah, biggest jump by far of anyone in the Eagles defense. He was kind of a guy that was like, okay, we'll bring in Dean here. We'll draft the kid out of Georgia. He'll probably step in some. We'll have Edwards just play cover linebacker. He was arguably one of our best tacklers, one of the leaders on defense.

So I'm glad he got paid. I think you guys got him on a good deal. Like I think he still was getting paid as if, you know, prove it again, do it again kind of deal. I love that signing for you guys. Again, two really good linebackers that should solidify. What are you guys going to run a three, four defense, I believe? So pretty interesting moves by the Bears defense,

especially now if Carter might drop all the way down to ninth, you get that guy in the middle. It could all be breaking right for this Bears team. It's going to be very, it has a, you know what it has? years ago, before the Buccaneers won their first Super Bowl, Warren Sapp was supposed to be a top five pick and rocked down to the Bucks, I think, at 12 because there were rumors about smoking marijuana

or he failed a drug test, like idiotic stuff. The Bucs got a Hall of Famer. They got a top five pick mid-first round. They got a Hall of Famer. The tournament is heating up, there's no better place to get in on the action than Fanduel America's number one sportsbook. That's because right now, Fanduel is giving new customers a no-sweet first bet up to $1,000. That's up to $1,000 back in bonus bets.

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Speaking of the draft, The latest mock I saw that was on Actionnetwork.com, by the way, C.J. Stroud, number one, Bryce Young, two, Will Anderson, three, Anthony Richardson, four, Will Levis at seven to the Raiders. I'm glad to see at least one mock draft that has C.J. Stroud as the number one overall pick. Because it is absurd to me that Anthony Richardson or Bryce Young would get love as the number number one pick. It's not fucking peewee football, okay? And it's not a developmental league. So go with a guy who you've at least seen enough film on to be able to say, oh yeah, this guy's a legitimate quarterback. And I think he's got enough upside here. So I'm like that C.J. Stroud is now

getting some love at number one from the Panthers. Simon, are you shaking your head in the affirmative or the negative? Well, I agree with it. I've finally moved CJ to my number one spot. I did have Bryce there for a while. Then once I got into this off season, I moved him quickly the second round just because I talked about it. I just don't think he has the body for the NFL. So I've kind of moved CJ up to one. I've been flipping back and forth between him and Anthony. I agree. CJ should be the number one guy. He's got the body. He's got the arm. He's got the mind. He's talented. My only knock is, you know, there's just come. There's a couple of things you talk about where you don't, I get where you're coming from, Chad, but you just don't want to

finish product. That's the big. biggest thing is you want you want that piece of clay but you want to mold it in your own way and the reason i love anthony richards so much is that this kid he's got everything right now except the brain and a lot of these coaches once they get their hands on these guys even if they don't have the brain if they have that blood of this is i mean danio jones yes you can say he went to duke the kid might be an idiot for all i know but i saw once he got a good coach the coach could take advantage of the athletic ability he built that offense around them danio jones just had a career year and just got paid a a shit ton of money. And that's what I'm kind of thinking here with Richardson where I don't know

if Richers is going to be great in the NFL, but what I do know is the kick and run. And I knew that's why, you know, when I pitched you at whatever that was 50 to 1 or whatever to be the first pick, I didn't really think he was going to be the first pick. I just thought, this kid's going to have athleticism that's going to really shine in these drills and it's going to move up the draft board. Now, the team I'm consulting with, I can tell you this much. When I pitched him in, whether that was, early February, I thought I was going to be fired all. on the spot. These people looked at me like, who the hell is this Gibroni talking about Anthony Richardson? And that's completely flipped where I think now that I've talked to these guys

were often, I think more people are coming to his side. And that's why you've seen him shoot up this draft board. But if I was still, if I had the first pick, if I'm trying to be safe, right? If I'm my guy like Frank Reich, who's, you know, he's dealt with a lot of BS over his early coaching career. And now he's in Carolina, I'd play it safe ago with CJ. But if I was a team like Houston that needed to make a big splash, an AFC that has, we can say five really good young quarterbacks, it's got to be Richardson. He's got the highest upside of anyone in this draft. So to me, I still think he should be the number two. The only thing with Houston that sucks is I think of Houston, the owner is going to be making that decision there. I don't think it's,

people are going to be pitching to this guy. I think in the end, it's his decision. And right now, from everything I've heard. It seems like it's going to be Bryce. So I think that's the wrong way to look at. I think he's looking at like you do, Chad, where you want to finish product, you want the guy you know that's going to be good. I do agree. Bryce would be good in the NFL. I think he can play. I just don't think he has an upside of ever being a top five guy. He just does not to me have that upside where Richardson does. So it has been nonstop back and forth with people with this draft season. It's been really fun because you have such polarizing quarterbacks here. And, you know, I might die in a hill here with Anthony Richardson,

but to me, it was more about me just taking a position. Like, it's now an easy hedge now. If I want to take CJ, I can take him now, whatever it is, minus 200 or minus 250, be the first pick. That's an easy hedge if you had Richardson of 40 to 1 or greater, or even 10 to 1. It's still an easy hedge. So to me, that was my whole love for him.

But I'm interested here with Chris's view is because, you know, we have not seen an Ohio State quarterback workout, I don't want to shit on Justin Fields. It just has not happened in my lifetime. Now, you could say Joe Burrow did. Joe Burrow was in nothing until he went to LSU. Once he got that confidence at LSU, that's what kind of changed Joe Burrow.

Like that's what changed his whole playing style. That was an Ohio State Joe, bro. So that's my big weird here, Chad. It's just Ohio State, they always have a Marvin Harrison, Jr. Y receiver that makes these quarterbacks look incredible. I don't know how good these quarterbacks really are. So, like, Justin Fields,

I think the kids got all this talent in the world. He still hasn't proved in NFL. That's my only pause of CJ. I think CJ's got all the talent. I just, they don't have the history. Ohio State just does not produce winning quarterbacks in NFL in anyone's lifetime. Literally, we got 100 years of NFL here, and there ain't one Ohio State guy I can think of. So that's my biggest pause right now, this Ohio State quarterback going one in this draft.

Yeah, I mean, I'm higher on Bryce than I guess you are. I think he has a high floor and a high ceiling. I mean, how many times when people were written off guys because of their size or whatnot, you end up getting some guys that end up being like a Hall of Fame caliber, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, at least until, you know, last couple of years. So Doug Flutie. So I don't mind Bryce Young at number one. It's a good point about the Ohio State quarterbacks,

but I think, you know, especially, you know, as the game is starting to change, I think it's, I think it's going to start changing. I think Justin Fields, you know, we talked about how much we love Chicago. Obviously, you know, Justin Fields is going to have to play well. And I thought he did, you know, I thought he took a big step in it and just watching him. I mean, you could tell, get this guy some weapons. I mean, let's not forget his wide receivers last year were, I mean, I don't even remember. Oh, man, I can't even name him.

these guys right now. Like it was bad. Byron Pringle, Nikiel Harry, you know, outside of Mooney, it was bad. So, you know, I think, I think, you know, if Carolina, I think Carolina might actually go Bryce. I think Richardson still in play for them as well. But, you know, whoever gets CJ, I think, you know, the team around him is obviously going to be important. I think the development is going to be important. But, you know, looking at Frank Reich and Carolina, you know, he had Andrew Luck and then it was taken away from him.

And then ever since then he's just been playing the quarterback roulette. And so I think a guy like Bryce Young, a high floor guy probably is going to appeal to him, a guy that, you know, kind of like Andrew Luck, can come in there and give you some semblance of a floor and not be as much of a developmental prospect. So that's why I think Carolina may actually be leaning young over Richardson or Stroud. That's just my opinion. I know he's never coached your quarterback under 6-3 though, Frank Reich. I mean, that's real.

That is true. But I still think Frank Reich is going to look at like height is one variable, right? It's one piece of data, right? You know, that size is one piece of data. There are a lot of, you know, pieces of data. Every quarterback class is unique. I just think, you know, when faced with the choice of these three guys, I think that's who he will roll with. I could be, yeah, wrong, but that's just my, you know, early lean as of now.

I think Wright goes with kind of a safe guy. And just, right was kind of a safe, you know, pick for Carolina, even as a head coach. I just think that's kind of the route they want to go. I don't think they want to, I don't think they want to play games and like, you know, whiff on his pick after they just, you know, traded on his draft cap. So that's just my opinion. And I'm not saying it's even right. You know, I'm not saying it's correct. But I'm just saying that knowing Frank Wright and knowing this organization,

I would actually have money on Young going to Carolina. I feel like Simon, the whole height thing for Frank Reich, that's a bullshit stat. Like how many times has Frank Reich in his career as a- new quarterback every year for like four years? Yeah, but as an assistant coach, as a coordinator, as a head coach, he's never been in a position

to control the players on his roster. Yeah, yeah, so I just told you. He was in the Colts every year. He got to pick his quarterback. Okay, but there's only so many quarterbacks that are short anyway. So it's right. Like, it's just, I get what you're saying.

Yeah, right. You're just making my point even more, though. No, no, I agree. I agree with that. But what I'm saying is you can't, because there's a lack of, short quarterbacks in general, you can't necessarily just say, well, because

I'll send you a clip, though, has a cat of a short quarterback. He will never have one because the odds are for, you could take anybody in the week, the odds are they're not going to have a short quarterback because there aren't many of them. Like, Frank Reich was not in a position to get like Drew Breeze or Russell Wilson

or Tyler Murray, you know? It's like there's only so many short quarterbacks in the week. I'll send you a clip, though, him talking about where he was basically it was him talking about Carson Wentz and why he likes that kind of that big body because he was the O.C. when they drafted Wentz. And he's basically his whole pitch was you want a guy that can take the hits because I need a guy that can stand in there and make the throws. Do you really think Bryce Young can take these hits guys? I mean, that's why like, I'm trying to have to shit on the kid too much because I'm with you. He has a ton of upside.

It's just we've gone too much the other way where it's like this kid who's weighing in a 180, 185 playing weight, it's over. Like 300, 325, landing on top of Bryce Young, it's over. So to me, that's why I think CJ's a safe pick. It's like, I don't, I hate shit on Bryce Young because I'm with you. Like this kid's tape, he is so good and he's so smart. But it's just the body. It's like Hertz had the lower body.

Wilson had the lower body. This kid does not have the lower body in any way. I just think we're overthinking it. It's like, all these guys, like, it's not. even just got overthink of those. It's the quarterback position. All right, but let's go back to some of these other guys who we've questioned because of their

size. Like, again, Drew Brees, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Tyler Murray. Like, these guys... Tyler hasn't held up. Lamar isn't held up. That's my argument. Okay, okay, but these guys, they held up enough for them to be

getting, you know, you know, upwards of $200 million offers. Like, it's a relative thing. It's like, oh, like, there's a about 24 franchises, 26 franchises in the league that would love to have Lamar Jackson or Kyle Emerg. Apparently not, though. Apparently not, my guy. So that's what I mean. It's just, at the NFL, I think they shifted where they're like, yeah, we want the Russell Wilson type. And now they're kind of moving back where it's like, do we want that? Like, is that the future?

Because, again, I just think it's these hits, man, availability is the key to football. It's I am all for Bryce Young. I think he's going to be a good pro. It's just for me personally, I wouldn't touch him because of that. It's just like I just have no faith this kid holding up. I don't care how much weight gainer he's eaten before these combines. He's not going to be playing at 205. That's just not a natural body weight for him.

So that's my biggest pause for him. Again, I hate shitting on the kid. Who the fuck am I? Shitting on a kid who's about to be the second pick or first pick in the NFL draft. But that's just part of my job where it's like I'm pitching to this team right now, please stay away from him and the owner's looking to me like I fucking like Bryce Young

who the fuck are you so it's tough it is really tough where it's like I can't predict the future but I can go back in time and try to tell people it's like Miami taking Tua was a huge mistake they should have took Herbert Herbert had the body for the NFL Tua didn't that to me

would have flipped her right there because both them are the same credentials coming out they're both really high level talent the Tua got the bump because he was so special won the national championship. Herbert really did do much right at Oregon. His senior year was kind of a dud. Now we look at the other way. It's like, yes, Herbert hasn't done much in his career, but he's held up. Other than getting him cracked ribs, he's held up in the NFL. And that's my whole thing. It's like these big bodies. It's the reason these guys hold up where the little guys, they really don't.

I feel you. I just feel like there's everyone has the potential to get injured. And especially at the quarterback position, it's hard to evaluate. and find guys who can play. And I just know Bryce Young to play. Like I'll figure out everything else. Like, we talked about a lot of these teams with elite quarterbacks, guys are missing games anyway. So that's just my philosophy.

I get it. But it's just like I can't, I can't guarantee you that a guy like Richardson could play, you know, the way I could with young. So that's just how I look at it. You know, if it was kind of more of a toss-up, I would say, okay. But to me, I just think Bryce is a little bit more of a short thing. But it's a philosophical difference, but I totally understand. Simon said the key phrase, overthinking.

He said don't overthink it. I think we have to overthink it because otherwise, what are we doing here? It's five fucking months until the NFL starts again. If we don't overthink it now, we're never going to overthink it. We are bad media people. if we don't overthink this. And as a Bears fan, I find it to be such a relief

to not have to debate what the Bears are going to do because we've settled and we're spending our money wisely and we're making good decisions and we're going to win the Super Bowl. But let's just say, let's just say

there are other divisions in the NFC in a couple minutes. We've got a couple minutes because we've got to wrap this up. Ray Bonn, we've spent a lot of time talking about Carolina. meanwhile, Atlanta,

quarterback questions, New Orleans, quarterback roster questions. What do we do with these two teams in the NFC South? So I think New Orleans should be the clear favorite for that division, but I won't spend too much time right now.

Let's just talk about Atlanta because I think Atlanta is your sleeper and not Carolina. Because I think even if Carolina makes the right choice, quarterback with that number one pick, I think Carolina is still a year away. A lot of the things that we liked about Carolina aren't the same. Like, you know, they don't have Wilkes. They're not playing hard for Wilkes anymore. DJ Moore's gone. Deontay Foreman's gone. You know,

Tarnell's got, like, it's just a whole new, it's a whole new team. And a lot of the guys, they, Carolina signed in free agency are kind of average guys. I mean, Deshawn Williams, Tuttle, Hayden Hearst, Sanders, like, you know, D-Win replacing more. Like, all these, these are lateral moves at best. So I'm not in love with Carolina, but I look at a team like Atlanta, signed Jesse Bates, you know, got on your Mata on the D-line, Bates in the secondary, you get Caden Ellis on the edge, you add another, you know, a better backup or maybe even, you know,

bridge quarterback in Heineke, then Marriota, and you have eight picks in the draft. The O line, it could be very good this year. The offense was already an above average offense, and it was top three in Russian last year. You got good young players at the skill position, so the defense is real at issue with them, and I think they started to take steps.

I mean, you got Bates and Terrell, stars in the secondary. So I think Atlanta in this weak division is a, is live to win this thing. So I love Atlanta. And then you also go to the West in Seattle, I think is really interesting. Now, obviously, San Francisco's roster is the best in that division. But I think it's a rebuilding year for the Rams and Arizona as well.

Seattle's still got 10 picks in the draft. They got five in the top 83. They've shown that they can draft well in the past. And, you know, they already are kind of ahead of schedule. and they have a solid roster that, you know, if they hit on, you know, two, three, four of those picks and of those, you know, five in the top 83, this Seattle team is going to be looking very good as well. And I think make a, you know, be a legit playoff contender, not just a team that is kind of relying on other people to get in. So Atlanta and Seattle are two teams that I think are undervalued in the NFC. Simon, you have two minutes to respond.

Well, I'll just do it real quick so I can give on my picks. I think both teams are a fun upside. Like to me, Atlanta has a fun upside in a division that we have no clue. Like anyone that comes confident, they have a clue of what's going to happen in the South. Who the hell knows? Like that division is such a train wreck. Of course, the Saints should be favorite, but I just don't know what I'll do with that division. The Seahawks are a great sleeper team.

The 49ers are going to be the darling of everyone. Everyone thinks they have three quarterbacks right now. that could be the starter for that team. So it makes sense if we were going to be heavy on them. But Seattle is a fun team with a ton of draft picks. And they believe in Gino. So I love where Chris is coming from on those two picks. What are your picks that you want to talk about?

Just real quick, people are asking me for an update on divisional bets I made. This past week, I bet Cleveland at plus 400, plus 450 to win the North, AFC North. It's just a Lamar bet. It's honestly a little more bet. I think the vibes are so bad now. I think Lamar might be leaving town or if he stays. I just don't like what's going on there with Baltimore.

And on the other side of Sincere, I think Chris talked about earlier in the show, they haven't gotten better since they. They've actually gotten worse from last year. So to me, they're a team that kind of seems like taking a step back where the Browns, they're going to have that easy schedule, that last place schedule, and they're going to be in a division now, the full off season with, you know, a guy that I know people don't like Watson, but before all this BS, Watson was a top five guy. So to me, I'm banking on Watson, getting back to form

where the offense put around them. I just like the value there. And I can't believe what I'm saying to, Chad, but I like what Dallas has done. I like the moves Dallas has made. I think people are too in on the Eagles, too on the Giants. Kind of forgetting about this Dallas team.

I saw them reach plus 200 last week at a couple books to win the NFC East. That's too high. That's way too high. I think the Eagles have gotten worse. The Giants have made a couple of improvements, enough improvements that they should be, you know, closer to the Cowboys and Eagles.

I don't know about that. So to me, the Cowboys are kind of left for dead. People have a bad taste in their mouth how Dac ended the playoffs. They don't believe in them. I'm with you. I'm not betting them to win a Super Bowl. I will not do that. But at plus 200 to win the NFC East and the division that we just see it every year,

has a turnover. The same team hasn't won it in over 20 years back to back. So just at plus 200, plus 175, I would take that now on Dallas if you're looking for a nice little bet here on an NFC East team. Guys, that was spirited. I can't wait to see. who ends up being the number one overall pick. Peter Skoransky from Northwestern.

I feel like that's our long shot. And it will just blow everybody out of the water. People will not believe that a Northwestern tackle was taken number one overall. But listen, we all know Frank Wright doesn't like short quarterbacks and he wants to mold his own guy. So that eliminates Bryce Young and CJ Shroud.

So, you know, Raybon, listen, Raybon, we're going to see you this weekend because we got this big event at Mad Hatter in Hoboken, New Jersey, people should go to actionnetwork.com. Just type in Action Network and March Madness event into your Google search bar.

You'll find the RSVP for that. Go sign up. I'm looking forward to spending some time on the Raybon. Simon, I'd like seeing your face. This has been the favorite podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman for Simon Hunter,

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