The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Playoff Predictions
Episode Date: July 16, 2025Our division-by-division betting breakdowns will begin at the end of this month. But before we get to that, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter do our annual table-setter episodes to pr...epare us for all things betting in the NFL for the 2025 season. Today we do some playoff prognostication with the help of our Action colleague Brandon Anderson. He did a similar episode on the Action Network Podcast with Anthony Dabbundo, and we loved the concept. Together the trio will predict this year’s 14 playoff teams, but Brandon has a little twist. Since NFL moved to 14 playoff teams, an average of 6 teams drop out of the playoffs from one year to the next. Over 40% have been new participants! Without telling them that, Chad and Simon submitted their predicted playoff teams. And in this episode, we go through where the trio agree (3 teams per conference) and where they disagree (4 teams per conference) to highlight the volatility of the playoff race. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome to the favorites of the podcast, part of the volume podcast network.
I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
Today, we officially kick off our 2025 NFL season preview episodes, training camps,
open at the end of next week.
We've made it through a long, hard, cold, winter of no football.
Our division-by-division betting breakdowns will begin at the time.
the end of this month. But before we get to that, Simon and I will do our table setter episodes
to frame what we think when it comes to all things betting in the NFL. Today, we're going to
start with the big picture, playoff prognostication. Before I dive into the topic, let me bring
in my co-host, my companion, my confidre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter, hello, Simon.
Chad, how we doing?
I guess we're ready.
I guess it's time.
I guess all the planning, all the research, all the conversation, all the debate.
It's time to quite literally put some of that into action today.
We're going to play a little game with the help of our Action Network colleague, Brandon Anderson.
He actually did this a few weeks ago on the Action Pod with former colleague Anthony Dubundo, now of the Ringer.
And we loved the concept.
We're going to predict this year's 14 playoff teams,
which you and I do every year.
But with Brandon, we're incorporating a little bit of a twist.
Brandon, you are broadcasting from your dungeon bunker,
visiting your family in North Dakota,
where apparently they no longer have electricity.
The whole state has gone fully off the grid.
so people who are watching understand the circumstances for you,
but explain what we're doing today.
Yeah, I mean, look, the great news is the internet speed
is slowly getting better here in North Dakota.
My family's been at 10 MbPS for years.
We're up to 50 now, but they got flags in the backyard.
They're finally inputting in like the optic cable.
So I think maybe a year from now, next time I'm here,
we'll actually have real internet and have the good setup.
But hear from the dungeon either way.
Concept is pretty easy.
Since we moved to 14 playoff teams year by year, about eight of the 14 teams return the next season, about six drop out.
So that's almost half.
That's one away from half, obviously, over 40%.
So more turnover than we expect.
We know how NFL is, the League of Parity.
So the exercise Debondo and I did was, okay, we have to choose six teams to drop out and six new ones to come in.
You got to follow the rules.
Like if you drop out a division leader and you have no one from that division,
you've got to have someone in, et cetera.
So today we're doing it a little bit differently.
We didn't tell you guys the twist.
We just picked our playoff teams and we're going to kind of see where do we overlap.
What do we end up with?
We end up with three teams that all three of us have been in the NFC, three in the AFC.
So we'll kind of quickly yada yada of those.
And then I think talk through the teams that we differ on and can see where we overlap.
Yeah, look, I think that we,
we ended up naturally sort of finding a way to get to that six of 14 average just by doing it blindly,
not even knowing that this was the concept.
So let's start with the AFC.
The playoff picture, I think, is a lot clearer.
All of us have the chiefs, the Ravens, and the bills obvious.
None of us agree on the final four.
team. So let's dive in here. One obvious
AFC team that missed last season with a notable caveat
was Cincinnati with Joe Burrow coming off of the injury
the year before and then the team really struggling to start
the year. Brandon, you and I both have Cincinnati getting
to the playoffs. I'll be honest, I had Cincinnati winning
the division. So when I went through this, I had the Ravens as the
wildcar team from that division.
Simon, you at Cincinnati to miss,
explain yourself.
They're bad, Chad.
It's pretty simple when you break it down.
They are a really bad run team organization,
and they got lucky, right?
They stumbled into Joe Bro with the number one pick,
and they're very fortunate.
So every year they will have a chance to make this playoffs,
but you can get them in a plus number to miss the playoffs.
This is a bad team, a really bad defense,
that could potentially get worse
before they've ended the season.
Like they just keep doing things wrong
and it's catching up to them where,
oh, great, we re-signed Chase and Higgins
our stud receivers with Joe Burrow.
That's not their issues.
Their issues is that offensive line in the defense,
two things they have not really attacked this offseason.
So to me, you know, they got lucky
to even be close to making the playoffs last season
when they played so poorly against winning teams.
And they had a pretty easy schedule, right?
They caught a bad Browns team that had backup in.
They called it a bad.
Pittsburgh team when Pittsburgh was kind of on the downslope towards the end of the season.
So to me, it's going to be a lot tougher in that division.
And the Ravens, I just put so far above them.
I don't think it's close.
So that's just a team that's going to be overrated because it is Joe Bro, who we all know,
top 10, top six, top five quarterback.
So to me, it makes sense why you guys would pick them.
I'm just the other way.
I hate the way it's coming into the season.
Even the drama with their first round pick, all of it.
And Hendricks, it's so bad to me.
And their defense to me might be bottom five in the league.
Yeah, look, we're going to do a training camp questions episode.
And definitely one of the questions that I'm thinking about is,
can the bangles stop bangling because of what they're doing with Trey Henderson,
because of what they're doing with Shamar Stewart, their first round pick,
who they're, you know, trying to set precedent,
setting contracts with for first round picks.
Brandon, what is your reasoning for the Bengals being in the playoffs?
Yeah, I think actually for me, the reasoning is just that the offense is so good with Burrow, with T, and Chase,
especially last year when those receivers were both on the field, and I know it's not a given,
we got the contract settled now.
When those two and Burr were on the field, they were an unstoppable offense last season.
Like, Jamar Chase is breaking records in some games and doing just crazy stuff.
T was really good.
The offense being that good historically
puts you in the playoff picture.
Like as long as you just have
Borough T and Chase healthy, you're in the playoff picture.
They have won nine games or more in four straight seasons.
So all they really need to do
is stay mostly healthy and please, for the love of God,
not start 0 and 3 every single season.
Can we just have a normal September
and not dig a hole immediately?
I don't know.
So I don't know if we can bet on them to make the playoffs.
I think you're right,
I'm to point out that the plus number has been a good bet to make at the start of the year
because they usually dig themselves a hole.
And if anything, you can just bet plus on the other side and just be done.
I got some money either way.
Go ahead, Bengals, do your thing.
I need to worry about it anymore.
To me, Burrow belongs.
Look, we named off Chiefs Bill's Ravens.
For most people, that would be your top three quarterbacks in the NFL.
For me, Joe Burrow is in that group with those three, not necessarily as the fourth option.
If you have a star quarterback that's that good, you're in the playoffs.
And in the AFC, I have a lot more teams that I'm pretty comfortable leaving out of the mix.
In the NFC, I would not necessarily put them in as easily.
But I kind of needed teams, frankly, in the AFC.
So I'm happy to put the Bengals as an option here.
By the way, a little preview for a future episode that we're doing later this week,
our top 10 quarterbacks, which a lot of people talking about quarterbacks this week and their top 10 lists.
and Simon and I do it every year,
but we also incorporate a lot about quarterbacks
that we'd want to be betting on
or that we'd be afraid to be betting against at the end of the game.
You say Joe Burrow would be, you know, top four, Brandon.
I don't disagree.
One of us on this podcast right now
had Joe Burrow outside his top five.
That's how down he is on Joe Burrow.
The thing about the Bengals, and I agree with you,
Like, I am all in on Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow's biggest issue sometimes, and this offensive line is terrible,
but the issue is Joe Burrow.
And Joe Burrow likes to play hero ball.
He will hold the ball too long with a bad offensive line
and continue to try to make plays,
which puts himself in trouble physically,
and also make sure that he gets a lot more sacks than any other quarterback,
which is a constant problem.
So it can't all be on the offensive line.
It can't all be on the defense.
And as good as Joe Burrow is,
he has made catastrophic mistakes in inopportune moments,
either by taking sacks or throwing bad balls when he's under pressure.
So I understand Simon's position.
I'm just choosing to believe that they have to get it right and that this will be the year
and that two teams will come out of the AFC North.
And I don't think it's going to be, all right,
And I do think it's going to be the Bengals and the Ravens.
The Cincinnati Bengals came roaring back.
Next one. Simon, you and I both have the Texans back in the playoffs.
Brandon does not.
I know why I believe it.
Tell me why you believe it.
Just the defense.
Like to me, they're so talented with the coaching.
It's in that division that there's,
They're the only team with something legit great.
All other teams have questions, right?
I have so many questions about Jacksonville.
I mean, hell, we'll get into Houston here.
We have questions about the offensive line.
Like, that's what we're freaked out about it.
Is CJ going to take another step?
Because last year, we all agree.
He just didn't play up to a level we were expecting after his rookie season.
So if they were in any other division chat,
I probably would be more down on them because they're in that division.
Last year, they shouldn't have won it.
And they just all these other teams fall apart.
And they just kept turn it out.
because you have such good coaching, such good defense.
It just keeps them above water.
So to me, I'm with you.
I was trying to force into Titans.
You know how much I love the Titans is upcoming year.
But I'm just trying to be realistic here.
And I know people put hard earned money on this bet.
So to me, if I'm going to go with the side here,
I've got to go with Houston making it out of that division, you know?
Yeah, I think in the end, I was really impressed with C.J. Stroud
and how he played in the playoffs, even with a terrible offensive line.
and if they can recognize how to improve that offensive line just a little bit.
And he can get a little bit better at getting rid of the ball quickly
and improve his QB pressure rate in which sometimes he was just taking sacks,
I think because he was trying to make a play and was scrambling
and in vulnerable positions so soon after the ball was snapped.
they are legitimately just the more talented team.
He's a more talented quarterback than anyone else in the division.
Their defense is really fantastic.
I think they've got the more established coach than any other team in the division.
So it was a toss-up between Texans and the team that Brandon liked.
Brandon, go ahead and tell us who you think will make it instead of the Texans.
So for me, this really is a bet against the Texans.
Like I just found last year's team hard to inspire.
They finished with a zero point differential on the season.
The defense was great.
No doubt on paper, the Texans defense is the best unit in the division.
It's a terrible division, like Simon said, if we had other options here, it'd be a lot easier.
I'm not excited truly about the option about to give you, but I'm following the rules.
I can't just knock the whole division out.
I don't believe in the Texans.
I'm not there yet on the Titans.
I think they'll be better.
I like the reasons you like them, Simon.
I'm not ready to go better enough to win the division.
I am going to reluctantly take the Jacksonville Jaguars.
And part of the case here is, again, looking at defense, I agree, Simon.
The Texans, I thought maybe were a top three defense last year on paper.
Could be the number one defense this year.
Defense is really unpredictable and not sticky season to season.
I can predict pretty consistently who the top offenses are.
Like we can do the top offenses pod,
and it's going to be, name the quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes,
and Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burr, like elite quarterbacks or elite year to year
and have elite offenses.
Defense is a lot more malleable, changes a lot more.
So I agree that Bengals defense was a bottom five defense last year,
but historically, there's a decent chance that they go from like 28th to 22nd,
and just that amount of difference, even just accidentally getting a little better,
matters when the offense is that good.
With Houston, it's the other way.
If you fall from second or third to eighth,
and you're still a pretty good defense,
well, if the offense didn't improve a bunch,
that's a pretty big drop-off.
And so to me, I'm going to, like, default to offense feeling better.
So I have the Texans falling down.
I'm going to go with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
You hear the excitement in my voice, right?
The pick here is Liam Cohen,
and I hope that Liam Cohen can do with Trevor Lawrence,
what he's done at past stops,
I think especially
Brian Thomas looks like the next
just stud receiver and now
I don't even know what he's going to be yet
but whatever Travis Hunter is
maybe it's a little boost at receiver
maybe it's a little boost on defense
the area of where he can help them
I'm not sure yet but I do believe
in his talent what he can do there
and I like the coaching
changes that they made I think there's
a lot of low hanging fruit from the team
I can see a world
where with Liam Cohen
with these receivers, could Trevor Lawrence be the best quarterback in this division?
I think that's a very possible world out there. The talent is there. It's not going to be Cam Ward yet.
It's not going to be whatever Indianapolis has. I never consider them because I can't even get on board with who their quarterback is.
Could it be Trevor Lawrence? Could it be 9 and 8 or 10 and 7? That's probably enough in this division.
Houston's offensive line, I think, got worse even than it was last year with Laramie Tunsel gone.
they might be the worst offensive line in the league.
And that's another more predictable thing usually.
I'm kind of just taking the unpredictable with Jacksonville.
I don't really know what I'm getting,
but there's plenty of talent there.
There's a lot of talent on defense,
even if hasn't been good yet.
Maybe a new coordinator,
maybe some new plans can get things going there.
Just give Jacksonville a chance
because I got to pick somebody in the division.
That's the case.
Yeah, I think it really comes down to which quarterback do you believe in, right?
and C.J. Stroud, now two years in a row,
playoff victories in each year, division titles, in each year,
even with a dreadful offensive line,
Trevor Lawrence's third coach in five years,
really only one good season,
even on the field when he's been healthy,
consistently missing touch passes in the red zone,
consistently being inaccurate, not making the big plays.
I am not willing to best.
met on his unpredictability versus C.J. Strouds upside to me.
And Simon, you're with me.
Simon and I are together.
Yeah, and it also feels like we're all going to look at the end of the year and be like,
Daniel Jones, the Colts, they won this division?
We should have known.
So I'm with Brandon.
This feels like a really stupid division.
So I get why he's going upside.
I'm playing it safe as we all are here in the AFC.
It just feels like we're in an era of where it's very top heavy in both divisions,
where the best are truly the best,
and then there's the rest
that are just trying to make into that little group.
So the Texans, I'm with you.
There's a lot of questions,
but man, is this division just gross?
Yeah, that was sort of,
it came down to Houston and Jacksonville for me,
and it was a flip of a coin.
Last year's wild cards,
Chargers, Broncos, Steelers,
Brandon and I have the Chargers back in,
Denver and Pittsburgh out.
Simon has the opposite.
Denver and Pittsburgh,
in, chargers out.
Simon, I want you to go first.
Explain why you like Denver
and why you like Pittsburgh
and why you don't like the Chargers.
Yeah, really, really boring, once again,
just went back to it where it's the coaching.
I feel like they make such a big difference.
And we saw last year where, you know,
Pittsburgh and Denver, pretty shocking
to see them make runs,
where Pittsburgh did it with Justin
Fields and Russell Wilson. Like that's pretty incredible. And the fact that, you know, it's a team
that just feels like this is their run, right? All the, they have all these guys, all these veteran
players that kind of know this is it. I mean, obviously what's going on with TJ Watts, a big
difference here. Like if we were doing this later and I knew he was already gone and traded,
probably would be a difference maker because he is that important to that defense. Me and chat
talk all the time about the splits when he plays for them when he doesn't play for them.
But just looking at this team on paper, I just trust the coach.
Like he just always finds it make it work.
And that's such a big deal in the AFC.
And then same with Denver.
It's like Denver, another team that might have a top five defense, top three offensive line.
Bowknicks, that might have been the peak what we saw last season.
Like he's old as shit.
I get it.
But that peak was pretty good.
Like he kept improving.
That's what you want to see when these rookies.
The NFL season is so long.
and it's such a mental game.
And that was so impressive about Jane Daniels and Bo Nix
is that a lot of other rookies,
they hit that rookie wall at some point.
These guys broke through it.
They kept them proving their teams didn't make the playoffs.
So with Denver,
it's just really about the coaching and the fact that they've just drafted so well
and they just have a great team there.
So again, I wanted to take them out.
Like I like putting in new teams.
It's just who are these other teams I trust more than those two teams?
Like I just, when you're talking about the head coaching,
those two guys are Hall of Famers.
It's tough for me to trust the coach in Cincinnati rather than the coaching of Pittsburgh and Denver.
So that's where it's like it gets really hazy there at that final spot putting in these wild card rounds.
Brandon?
Yeah, to me, this is really with these teams, especially two of them, it's about floor versus ceiling.
And with Pittsburgh and Denver, I can't get to a spot where I'm excited about a ceiling, being really above like 10 wins.
And I know 10 wins gets you to the playoffs, but 10 wins is a win or two wins.
away from missing the playoffs. And I don't think
Pittsburgh or Denver are going to be bad teams,
but like Pittsburgh,
we know with Tomlin, the 500 streak, right?
We know that every year we talk with the 500
streak. What we don't talk about
is they've had 10 wins or less six of
the last seven seasons. So that
is a hard cap on a ceiling
for a team that like, okay,
you blow one or two games
and now you're 500 and now you're
out of the playoffs. And
we got Aaron Rogers, T.G. O'Watt, Cam
Hayward, probably, maybe the three,
best most important players on the team, certainly up on the list, all ancient in football years.
And Aaron Rogers, 14 and 21, the last three years, as a starter.
I just feel like the ceiling is capped there, and I don't like Aaron Rogers fit with Arthur Smith offense at all.
So I don't know how that's going to go.
I don't know how it sets up, but we've seen this not go well with Rogers recently.
With Denver, to me, is just a pile of red flags.
I talk about not believing in defense from year to year.
Denver was top five defense and special teams last year,
and both of those scream regression to the mean.
And if it's even a little bit, Denver's offense,
I don't believe in much at all.
I'm not a Bowenix guy.
I never have been a Bowenix guy.
I think last year probably was the best we'll get.
If the defense is worse,
now you're starting with a ball,
maybe 15 yards further back on the field,
and now Bow's got actually make some throws, right?
Now he's got to actually do the thing and be quarterback,
not just be game manager.
And I think the offense gets worse as the defense gets worse.
I don't believe in that coaching staff quite as much.
I don't believe in Vance Joseph on defense to have them be that incredible again.
And in both teams cases, Pittsburgh and Denver, they're both in tough divisions too, right?
They're both in divisions where each of us has two other teams in Pittsburgh's division in the playoffs.
Well, I guess Simon has Pittsburgh in the playoffs.
But tough divisions.
There certainly are three clear playoff contenders, chargers with the other.
other division as well.
So I think, too, that's like, if you look at Chiefs Chargers or Ravens Bangles,
that might be three losses already right there for either one of these teams as well.
So to me, the Chargers are not a ton different on the floor ceiling thing.
The difference is I'm going to come back to the quarterback again.
Justin Herbert, and no, we haven't seen it long enough, but we saw him make a better leap
in the second half of the season.
We saw more passing as they kind of open up the offense a little bit.
They added Beckton on the line now.
They're going to get year two of Ladd-McConkie.
And again, here's Sealing versus Floor.
We talked about the scene capped with Tomlin and with the Broncos.
Jim Harbaugh's floor to me.
In five seasons of the NFL, he's never finished below 500 either,
but he's at 11 wins or more four of the five seasons.
And most of those are in the 16 game seasons, right?
So 11 and 5 are better.
I'm not excited about the Chargers.
I don't think I want a Super Bowl ticket on the Chargers.
but Justin Herbert, to me, has the talent to maybe push into that top four or five quarterback range,
if he ever pulls it together.
We're running out of time here.
But I can see a floor and get excited about the ceiling.
And I rather have that delta pushing up than the other two teams where the delta seems down to me.
So I have a chargers in with the high floor, the Steelers and the, who am I talking about?
The Steelers and the Broncos I have out with the cap ceiling.
You're not worried about regression there from Chargers defense?
Yeah, I am worried a little bit.
They really exceeded what they should have done last year.
You can agree with that.
That was incredible.
The talent on certainly of these three teams,
there's no question which defense I feel least good about going into the season.
It just, again, kind of fitting in my theme here,
especially in the AFC.
I don't feel great about a lot of teams in the conference.
I'm going to trust the quarterback and the offenses that I feel good about.
I'm basically saying I trust.
I trust my ability to evaluate offense better than I trust my ability to evaluate defense.
Defense is just going to push toward the middle, and I trust, yeah, I'm taking what might just be
the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and put them in the playoffs. And so I don't mind doing
that in the FC. I cannot disagree with any of the analysis from Brandon. It's why I have the
Chargers in. I'm betting on the better quarterback. Simon, we love Sean Payton.
He's a great coach to bet on.
But so was Jim Harbaugh.
And there were games last year, especially a game between the two of them,
where Harbaugh just out-coached Sean Payton and won a game because of that.
I'm going to bet on Harbaugh.
I'm going to bet on Herbert.
I'm not going to bet on Bo Nix.
That's really what it's coming down to.
And I think Aaron Rogers has just been fading.
He's just not that good of a quarterback anymore.
So that's why I ultimately decided on Cincinnati in that division instead of Pittsburgh.
To summarize, we've all got Kansas City, Baltimore,
Buffalo. Really going out on a ledge with those picks.
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.
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Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and
friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This
week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with
their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with
Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself.
I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris.
Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay.
Jen should win.
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Listen, Lerner Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now.
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To summarize, we've all got.
Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo.
Really going out on a ledge with those picks.
My next three, Houston, Chargers, Cincinnati.
Simon, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh.
Brandon, Chargers, Jacksonville, Cincinnati.
One more spot for each of us.
Brandon and Chad agree.
Mike Vrable, New England Patriots.
And I will kick it off and say,
A, I love Vrable, I think is an instant difference maker.
I think he can make this team two to three games better.
I like that they drafted high for the offensive line.
They've nominally improved the receiving core.
Drake May showed enough last year that when he had no weapons,
he had moxie and an ability to move the ball.
and defensively this team is also improving.
So, you know, it's not commanders like,
but to me it is commanders light.
So that's why I liked the Patriots.
Brandon, back me up.
Yeah, I mean, I think you made the case.
I agree with all that.
I love building in the trenches,
Will Campbell, Morgan, Moses, Garrett Bradbury.
This was probably the worst line in the league.
last year. This could be
towards a league average line. Once they
kind of gel and get used
to things, Drake May, I am
very excited about. I think there is a world
where Drake May is what we think
about last season into the year,
C.J. Stroud. What we think about maybe
when we've done with Trevor Lawrence, where we
bump him up into like the eighth spot, you know,
that young quarterback that makes the leap.
I think Drake May looked really good
last year, especially given the context of
terrible blocking, no real weapons,
and he still played really good football.
I frankly don't love long-term the Vrable and Josh McDaniels thing.
I'm less excited about the future five years from now about Drake May.
But I think in the immediate future, this again is a ceiling floor thing.
I think they add a lot of floor.
They increase the offensive line on defense.
They get Milton Williams.
They get Harold Landry.
Carlton Davis, the best corner in the market.
I think Davis and Christian Gonzalez could give them maybe the best corners in the league
if things turn out well there.
So I think just raising the floor by saying, okay, let's just get some guys,
get some guys who can actually play football for us and give us a chance.
The only bummer here, Chad, is that everyone else thinks this too.
Like the Patriots, there's no value on betting them to do anything
because what are they favored in like 11 games already going into the year when they were terrible last year.
So I don't know.
I wonder if I ended up swerving on this, just trying to find value somewhere else
because there's really no way to bet this right now because everyone's already in
and the Patriots.
Well, Simon, giving you an option right here.
Lay it on us.
Who's your seventh team?
Well, I will say, too, the Patriots,
just what you guys talk about,
feels like a dead on arrival.
Everyone's just in on it
because they have an easy schedule,
the Vrabble bump,
Drake May, Year 2 jump.
I get it.
I didn't pick them, obviously,
because to me, it's going to come down to,
I trust coaches that are in new spots
like Vrable that are talented,
but with a veteran quarterback.
quarterback that I can trust as well.
And that's why I ended up on Vegas.
And I'm gonna save it because there's a lot of data
to back it up.
I wanna dive more into it,
but Gino Smith splits between outdoors and indoors
is massive.
And going from Seattle to Vegas,
it's gonna be a big deal for him.
And especially in that offense where,
to me, it's gonna be a really old school
what Pete Carroll wants to do with the Marshawn Lynch,
Russell Wilson type of style, right?
They're gonna be a run heavy team with Gentis,
Gentie and I love Gina Smith aspect of it.
So I'm the hardest part is trying to find the last place team that makes the jump.
Like that's what I'm looking for here because we always know that randomly happens.
I don't know.
I don't know why I ended up on Vegas.
It really again, I was looking at Tennessee but I was just like man, this just feels like
the type of spot that we're like we're not not overlooking them, but we kind of are, right?
It's Pete Carroll on the Raiders with Gino Smith.
It's not sexy.
It's not fun.
It's not being talked about really by national media.
So that's why it just, they feel like the perfect under-the-radar team that sneaks in there in that final seven spot.
But again, I get the Patriots love.
They got the schedule.
They obviously have the talent you think across the board if their quarterback takes that year to jump.
But that's the big question, right?
So to me, I'm playing it safe here, going to the veteran quarterback.
And what I think is going to be a big deal going from Seattle to an indoor eight, nine games out of the year.
It's going to be a big deal for Gino.
Well, you can be right.
That's a sneaky smart play that the Raiders might have made to give.
themselves a little bit of a higher floor with a coach who, you know, is 70-something years old and
might not have that many years. So you want to take advantage of what he's trying to build there
as quickly as you can. NFC is interesting because we all agree on two returning teams of the seven
that can make the playoffs. And it's not teams that you would expect. We agree on Philadelphia
in Green Bay. And we agree on a third team that missed the
the playoffs last year in San Francisco.
Before we get into anything, quick yes or no, do we all agree San Francisco could end up being
the number one seed in the NFC? Simon, yes or no?
Yes, just because of the schedule.
Brandon.
Yes, they are my one Super Bowl ticket right now.
Chad.
Yes, they are one of my two Super Bowl tickets right now.
that leaves four more teams.
We don't even agree on whether or not last year's number one seed will make it.
Chad, I'm getting too used to refer to myself in the third person.
Simon and I agreed that Detroit is in.
I will say they were one of my last teams in.
Brandon, you like Detroit to miss, so explain yourself.
Yeah, I just, I love to bet on fading the brain drain on teams.
and the brain drain coming in Detroit is going to be huge.
Everyone's going to be talking about it.
Ben Johnson, and we're going to come back to him in a bit, I know,
but Ben Johnson out the door.
We haven't seen what this offense is going to look like without his play calling.
We've even seen everyone loves Dan Campbell's aggressiveness.
Okay, are we sure we love it when we don't get Ben Johnson's play calling with the aggressiveness?
We're sure that we love that version of his aggression.
You know, we've seen coaches over the years where that aggression runs out,
and it suddenly doesn't work anymore.
We've seen Jared Gough without Ben Johnson and without Sean McVeigh be a very mediocre to bad quarterback.
And we saw him in this Lions team not look good until Ben Johnson started making the calls.
Aaron Glenn on defense really surprised me last year.
I didn't give them enough credit that defense really overperformed.
And I think everyone loves to revision his history and sell the Lions had the year from hell because they had all the injuries at the end of the season.
They certainly did.
But I thought it was a Lions year for like three-fourths of the season.
I thought it was the Lions year, that they were the team, that, man, everything is perfect.
They're going to be the Super Bowl team this year.
And so you get both sides, both of those count.
I do like for them, DJ Reed, I think is a really nice addition for them with Tarian Arnold.
So I think actually Detroit's defense could be better maybe than they were last year.
They're getting Aiden Hutchinson back.
He was probably the defensive player of the year until he got hurt.
So it's, yeah, it's not a team that I'm like super loving the fade.
because it's a very talented roster,
but I think the defense can be a little better,
but the offensive line gets worse.
Frank Regnow is a really big loss for them.
The splits with him playing and not playing is a big deal.
And then you take the play calling away,
you make golf a little bit worse.
And now I think you just have like a round of league average offense and defense,
maybe even slightly above average on both.
But the NFC is tough.
I can see this team being like a nine-win team
and still missing the playoffs,
especially in a very tough division.
So, you know, just a team that when you lose Ben Johnson,
lose Aaron Gly and lose Frank Ragnall,
like that's coaching an offensive line.
That's my schick.
Like, that's my thing.
So if you're going to lose that much drain in those areas,
it has to be a team I'm out on.
Yeah, look, those are all the reasons why I potentially left them out,
ultimately decided that's downgrading a little bit too much,
given how high their ceiling was last year.
Simon, you're with me. Explain for the both of us.
Detroit, it's still going to be that Detroit offense, right? I do think they'll take a step
back. They obviously won't be the one seat, but could they still steal this division somehow
or make the wild card? I think they will because they have just so much talent. And to me,
it's what you just talked about, though. It's beginning at the end. Like, their window,
we know football's window is two to three years usually. And then you kind of have to re-remake
who you are. Like, you have to become a whole new team.
build out throughout the draft.
And they have drafted so well that maybe they have another year or two to do it.
But I'm with you guys.
Like I was looking forward to betting them on the division last year,
looking forward to betting them to potentially win FC.
I didn't do any Super Bowl futures.
Me and Chad talked about.
I just didn't think, just something about the fact that it's Detroit and it's golf.
I was like, there's something's going to go awry here.
And sure enough, pick six later against Washington, it happened.
So it's a tough spot with Detroit.
Chad, I think me and you feel the same way where we know the possibility that I'm falling off a cliff is real because football is so dependent on coaching.
But man, you just, when you break it down, it's like the talent's there.
The question to me at the end of the day will be is that new offensive line they're building.
Is it going to work?
Because they've had some major departures.
And we talk in Nazim about it, but it's such an important cog to the NFL machine, that all offensive line.
So to me, that end up might be in the Achilles Hill of his team.
But to not make the playoffs, who, that's a nice.
that's a nice plus number Brandon. Do you remember what the number was on that?
To bet Detroit not making the playoffs or no?
Because I bet you that's what plus 200 you think plus 250 at least, right?
Yeah, I haven't seen the number in recent times in the dead of July here in the dungeons in North Dakota.
But yeah, it's definitely a nice plus number because, you know, if you're picking the one seed to miss out the following season,
you're going to get a number on that.
To me, I know we talk about like the Super Bowl losers curse.
Who's that team that's going to fall off from last year?
they didn't make the Super Bowl.
They didn't win a playoff game,
but I think Detroit is that team this year.
I think they're the team that has the weight of what last year was
and what this year isn't anymore coming back to them.
And I think partly it's because the division is so strong.
Well, look, we can talk about the division
because that's where we also have some discrepancies.
The one thing I'll add, Simon,
you talked about offensive line, Brandon,
you mentioned Frank Ragnow.
They also lost Kevin Zitler,
who was,
one of the best guards in football and made a huge impact on their ability to run the ball
and convert so frequently on fourth down.
So I do think that's an, I think the weight of expectations, and Brandon, I think that's a great
way to frame it.
You talk about that Super Bowl hangover for the team that lost.
They feel the same weight.
Like, they feel they should have been there to not get there for a second year in a row.
The San Francisco lost a couple of years ago, I think, was inspiring.
the one last year was a little bit deflating.
The rest of the NSC North is interesting.
I've got the Bears.
Brandon, you've got the Bears in Minnesota.
Simon, you've only got Detroit.
I will say for the Bears, obviously...
I'm Green Bay as well.
What's that?
I also have Green Bay.
Right, you have Green Bay.
I have Detroit, Chicago, and Green Bay.
Brandon has Chicago, Minnesota and Green Bay.
Simon, you have Green Bay.
and Detroit.
I say this
is an unbiased way as possible.
Everything the lines lost
for Ben Johnson, the Bears are getting.
I believe that their
offense, they are peaked
at skill positions.
They made their offensive line
into what I believe can at least be
a top five or top ten offensive line.
The biggest challenge is going to be
what have they done to improve
their pass rush? Not
as much as you like as a fan.
But I like what they did offensively enough for them to make the playoffs.
Brandon, you've explained why you're out on Detroit.
Explain Minnesota with a touch of a compliment to what I said about the Bears.
Yeah, I mean, with the Bears, really, it's the same thing as the Lions.
Literally, it's Ben Johnson, but it's the same points.
I believe in investing in the lines, winning in the trenches and winning with good
coaching. I think those are two edges as a better, especially in the futures market that we have a
big edge on. And I think what the Lions lost quite literally was what the Bears gained here with
Ben Johnson and what Caleb Williams year two should look like with him, but also investing in that
offensive line. I'm never going to not like what you did if you go and get Joe Thuney and
Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson, Grady Jarrett on defense. Like if you're bringing all the boys in
the middle around the football, I'm going to like what you did. So what
Detroit didn't do that I didn't like is what the Bears did do.
And frankly, it's kind of what the Vikings did as well.
The Vikings get back, Christian Derisaw.
Him and Brian O'Neill, I think, are one of the better tackle combos in the league on the
offensive line.
Derisaw only played six and a half games last year.
But then they rebuilt the interior of the line with what basically was a pretty good
Colts interior of the line in the last couple of years when healthy.
They also go out and get Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave as swings in the defensive
line, adding to what was already
a really talented defense. Now,
this was a defense that was really, really
good, and by my own thing I've said
just half an hour ago, shouldn't I
be wary that won't they fall back
to the earth? I am wary of that.
I think Brian Flores' defense, we've seen that within the
season before even, where they kind of
get found out a little bit. The corners are still
pretty weak on this team. Just to
me, this is a high
floor formula. We have
a great offensive line, a ton of
weapons on offense,
a really good defense that may not be number two,
but we know Flores gets defenses performing a top 10 level year after year
when he has some talent there.
The trenches are good.
The coaching is good.
There's just a lot to believe in.
And I haven't said the one name that you maybe don't believe in,
which is J.J. McCarthy.
We don't know about J.J. McCarthy,
but we didn't know about Sam Darnold last year either.
And frankly, we had all the reasons to not believe in Sam Darnold.
Why can't J.J. McCarthy be as good as Sam Darnold?
why can't you be as good as what Jared Gough was with a good play caller?
Why can't J.G. McCarthy be better than Sam Donald?
I don't know with this blocking.
And I think, too, I'm excited as a Vikings fan.
And I will say normally that would make me bet against Minnesota, not for them.
So don't take that with too much a grain of salt.
But I'm excited to see what can this offensive do with a quarterback that can move a little bit?
That's one thing that KOC has not had.
Is a guy that can move out of the pocket, create a little bit with his legs.
I think McCarthy gives them a new little bit.
dimension to the offense they haven't had with the weapons, with the run game that they found
last season, with the line. I think there's, there are a lot of outs for Minnesota to still be good.
I know that it all says 14 and 3 expected wins like 11 wins. They were 9 and 1 in all the 1 score
games. We know all the reasons that they should be worse this year. This is a team that I traditionally
would choose to be out on. I'm kind of purposefully swerving and saying, okay, I think they can be
Worse than that record, they were not that good last year,
but I think they could be a better team this year
and still have a floor and a structure that puts them in the mix in the playoffs.
All right, Simon.
Anti-Bair's anti-Vikings.
Explain yourself.
Yeah, the Vikings one's pretty easy.
You have to pick some teams that made it last year to miss.
Everything he just highlighted is it's all red flags.
Like, me and you were so down on them coming to the season.
It was pretty simple.
We just didn't believe Sam Darnold.
he outperformed anybody's wildest expectations in all those fourth quarters.
Any game that was tight, the other team wilted, and he always stepped up.
And eventually it ran out.
Like we saw in that Detroit, then the Rams game.
It just, he had a peak, and then eventually it just came crashing down.
So it's all there.
Like that defense obviously overperformed because they were so well coached in Minnesota.
But it's another thing.
It's the unknown quarterback.
So yeah, they could potentially be a team to make it.
but betting odds going off past history and one score wins,
we see it fluctuates.
And it is dependent on coaching.
Like coaching can be so good.
You can rise above it.
We've seen Pittsburgh door for years.
But it's unlikely.
Just in your division, it's so brutally tough.
Like all these teams are so talented, so well coached.
And that's where it's tough with Chicago, Chad.
You have an offensive coordinator coming in doing his first coaching job in NFL, year one.
We've seen it time and time again.
It could be beautiful.
for five, six weeks and then just crash and burn.
One little thing goes wrong.
He loses the locker room, whatever it may be,
it could be really bad.
We don't know what type of coaching style he has yet.
We know he's a psycho.
Like we've seen him talk and he's all in.
I love it.
Like he's an exact type of coach you want.
Perfectionist makes him run the same play 10 times
until they run the exact way he wants it.
That's what you need in the NFL.
You need someone like that to pay attention every little detail.
So can it work if they win?
Hell yeah.
But if it goes bad, we've seen him,
Chicago it goes really bad because it's just so much weight on that team in that city and it's a
first year head coach so um with me and them it's it was really tough because i took detroit over them
that was that was like i was in between chicago or detroit because i have green bay in the winning
division you know if i'm betting wise so um that's where i just came down to it was just tough am i really
going to take chicago year one uh to me me and you talk about a little bit chat i just think
this is another growing year for Caleb williams i would be so happy if they made it right
But they string together a couple of those one score wins, right?
Huge jump because the offensive line and the coaching staff,
no one to be shocked Chicago making.
It's just unlikely because it's just such a tough division.
We both have, Simon, you and I both have Dallas in.
None of us have the commanders in.
Okay.
It's interesting, right?
Yeah.
This just feels like a natural regression, regression for defenses,
figuring out how to stop Jaden Daniels,
the regression on fourth down conversions,
the way he plays, who knows,
the injury possibilities are just higher.
That defense, as Brandon pointed out,
it is inconsistent year to year.
Last year they were better than expected.
Did they do anything to get that much better
during the offseason?
Simon, you and I both like Dallas in.
I like it more because their defense is going to be healthier
and they have DAC back.
Can you give a little bit of insight?
Because I want to do this one quickly because we got a lot still to get through,
but a little bit of insight on Dallas.
Yeah, and I'll save all for when we do divisional talks with Dallas because you know how I feel about them.
But it really is that simple, as Chad said it.
It's just a team that's coming off a down year.
They're going to have their quarterback back, have a number two receiver in pickings.
That's a big upgrade.
I think the office line would be better because they were so young last year.
They should have a running game and just that defense.
Like that defense is a ton of talent.
They just simply could not stop the run.
feel like they've addressed that here in this office season.
So for me, that was the easy one with Washington.
I don't know if we're all in agreement,
but it's kind of what Chad said, right?
It's the regression of Jay and Daniels and just that defense.
Like they have not improved that defense in any way,
and they just overachieved in so many ways.
And we talked about that Chicago game felt like it flipped their season.
It felt like they could have gone either way, right?
They lose that game, Chicago and it goes the other way.
They win it.
They go on the up and up.
Chicago's got the other way, right?
Chicago will win another game for like five, six weeks after that loss
to Washington. So yeah, that's Washington. You're playing with house money. Like those fans,
they don't care what we're saying right now. They believe in J. and Danes. They think they have the
greatest quarterback ever. And we all agree, it's highly talented, but 80% of fourth down. It's just
it's not, it's digression. It's impossible. Like he, he maybe is Neo. He's going to break the
matrix. But we've seen NFL, these guys get paid millions and millions of dollars. They will
figure it out. They always do. Like doesn't matter how great you all.
they will find your weakness and they will attack it after six months of grinding tape in the off season.
So, yeah, Brandon, where are we at with Washington?
You're in the same boat as me, Chad?
I can't believe all three of us had them out.
Yeah, very similar.
I think the fourth down conversion rate is just crazy outlier and has to come down.
I think, too, this is this year's Houston.
This is the hype team with the young quarterback, everyone's excited about.
And I think they got a little bit of their own excitement, too.
We see a team each year that's like, you know what?
were one or two pieces away.
So what do they do?
Rather than going out and building the roster the right way,
Washington wasn't supposed to be this good last year.
They're supposed to be slowly building up.
And they're like, oh, no, we're going to go get Debo,
who hasn't been good for a couple years anyways.
And we're going to get Laramie Tunsell,
who's going to fix our whole offensive line.
But, oh, wait, there's still four other guys on the line,
and their line get really found out as the season went on last year, too.
So I think we see those teams that make the big splash moves.
And everyone's excited.
We already had a good team.
now we added these two stars onto the team.
They, I think, are the team that finished nine and one in games under a touchdown,
including four straight to make the playoffs, then Tampa in the playoffs,
and then, frankly, right place, right time to take advantage of the Detroit defense
that just had nobody left.
In the NBA, we see teams make the conference finals and then get high on their own juice
and be like, oh, here we are.
You know, the Atlanta Hawks did it.
The Portland Trailblazers did it.
We see it year after year.
and they're like, okay, we're all in on this core now.
And it turns out that was the best it got with that group.
You got to still kind of pivot and go somewhere.
Growth isn't linear.
So I think Washington, I'm not out on Jaden.
I just need the rest of the team to come with it.
I think the rest of the team is going to take some work.
Dallas, I'm less excited.
But if you like Dallas, I think Parsons' defensive player of the year
is a good way to invest in Dallas.
I like that.
Growth isn't linear.
All right.
We all like Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco.
We all have very different choices for winners of the NFC South.
I like Atlanta.
Simon likes Tampa Bay.
Brandon likes Carolina.
Let's think about that as we go into sort of figuring out what our final equation looks like.
Brandon and Simon, you guys agree that your final team in the playoffs.
is the Los Angeles Rams.
I'll let you start, Brandon.
You have the Rams going in.
So your final seven, I believe, would be Rams, bears,
Vikings, Eagles, Green Bay, San Francisco,
and Carolina.
Yes.
Why the Rams?
Yeah, I think just the,
the Rams, they had a ton of injuries last year and still made the playoffs anyway. Now they get
Devante Adams and replacement for Cup. Devante Adams plus Puka, I think can be just a really,
really good receiving core. The offensive line also had a ton of injuries last year. Alaric Jackson
left tackle missed the first two games. Steve Avlo was hurt a lot of the season. Rob Havent
was hurt. I think this year you get a better line. Stafford historically has very much reflected
the play of his line.
And frankly, so is Sean McVey's offense.
We think of Sean McVey as this, like, crazy attacking offense.
His offense goes where the run game goes.
And when the line is better, the run game with Karen Rohn was going to be better.
So I think this offense, when healthy, which we can't just assume they're going to be healthy.
They're not going to be.
They're going to miss some games.
When you have Devont Adams and Puka and Stafford, they're going to miss a little bit of time.
But when healthy, they're going to be as good as anyone.
We saw that Bill's game last year, right?
Where they just looked, you know, they could put up any points,
any score they needed to.
The defense, I don't love it, but I think it's young and improving, heading in the right
direction.
Matt Stafford has been my first MVP bet for this season, not because I'm all in on the
Rams, far from it.
I'm not really believing a team, but if they hit what they could be, I think this
offense, if they're healthy all year, could be like a 13-win team.
And Stafford is a 50-1 MVP ticket, is a ticket worth investing in.
For once, no brain drain in Los Angeles.
Sean McVey finally didn't lose everybody that he's ever talked or had a copy with before.
So we just kind of get to run back a team that was pretty good already.
So a lot of options.
I like the other teams in that division as well.
But for now, I've got the Rams in.
Simon?
Yeah, I just love this Rams team.
I like them more than 49ers.
I know you guys are both bigger on the 49ers right now.
And I agree for season long, that's fair because we've just seen this Rams team every year.
They feel like they start slow.
And then they play catch up second half.
So to me, it's.
It's understandable why people would be higher in the 49ers,
but when you break it down the Rams,
I just think across the board they have so much talent.
And adding Adams to this team is just insane.
Like I can't believe that got him with Puka.
That's just such a nice combo.
And, you know, their defensive line,
I think they're just severely underrated.
Like they're a young, hungry group that we've seen time and time.
Again, if you coach it right, they grow and they get better.
It's a big deal.
Last year, their final five, six games,
that D-Lion got so much better for that Rams team.
They really improved.
I feel like that Bills game was a turning point for them.
They really figured some stuff out after that, different combinations.
And I just love the way they played, especially in the playoffs.
Like that Vikings game that D-Line dominated against the Eagles, they are really, really talented and dominant.
So, yeah, that Rams team, if I'm going to make one futures bet in NFC, it wouldn't be the Eagles.
It would still be this Rams team to win the Super Bowl.
I just think they have the best value.
Been there, done that, right?
Head coach, quarterback.
We talk all the time that's such a big deal in football.
Like knowing you've already climbed that mountain, you don't get phased in those tough moments.
in the playoffs. That's a big deal to me. So yeah, Shanahan, I love him, but man, we've had some
brutal, brutal losses on futures on him with that 49ers team in the Super Bowl. So, yeah,
just confidence level. I'm all in on this ramp team this upcoming season.
All right, Simon, give me your final seven for the NFC.
So I went Dallas Eagles out of the east, believe I had Buck South, Green Bay, Detroit for the
north and who do i have west i believe i have 49ers and just the rams so yeah the loan division
got to go the south right with the bucks it's just that that one's such a toss up i know a lot of
pros just like brandon here they like panthers mean chat me chad we drank that kool-aid i would love for that
to work out but um give it out in this show i'm just go i'm gonna play it safe in case people are
betting the stuff we're giving out here and just go bucks it's just i know they lost you know
arguably been the best office coordinator is in football.
But yeah, just we can't stop our Baker love.
We just love Baker on this show.
All right.
I am on Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco,
Detroit, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta.
Brandon, one more reminder.
Philadelphia, Green Bay, San Francisco, Tampa Bay,
Chicago, Minnesota, and the Rams.
Maybe wild.
I mean, that's, we're giving,
everybody's got an option for something with this one.
Brandon Anderson from the Dungeons of North Dakota.
Thanks for coming on the podcast and creating this game that we could play called
Who Will Make the Playoffs in the NFL?
The favorites will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page.
with special guest Rich Rebar talking top 10 quarterbacks also check it out with clips and highlights
at Real Chad. Millman on YouTube. Download us with Spotify. Apple Pods, wherever you get your
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Until next time, love you.
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Hey guys, it's us
The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin.
And I'm Nick. And guess what?
We created our own podcast called
Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.
Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it.
But, you know, tired and sick.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an
a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
What's up, fam, it's Isaiah Thomas.
And I'm C.J. Toledano.
It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs.
We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season.
And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.
If we didn't talk ever again, I was calling it.
You just understood.
That's how personal it got.
Wow.
Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to.
He's like, you know I love you, dog.
You know, it's all love.
This was just playoffs.
This was just basketball.
So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
podcasts.
Every family has its secrets.
But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?
That is not the look of an innocent man.
Is everyone lying to me about who they are?
I felt such desperation.
I felt it was what I had to do.
Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Thank you.
