The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Schedule 2022

Episode Date: May 25, 2022

The NFL recently released its complete schedule for the 2022 season, so Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman and his pro gambling best friend Simon Hunter look up and down the season-long slate to highlight teams and matchups worth further investigation. How did the NFL Draft and the schedule release impact their feelings on win totals and division, conference or Super Bowl futures? More importantly, will an affluent listener invite them to his or her Soldier Field suite for the Eagles vs. Bears game Week 15? #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor.

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in Michigan, 1-877-770 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome, favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Milam, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am going to welcome in my BFF, my companion, my compadre, South Jersey's finest, Philly's favorite son. Professional better. Simon Hunter.

Thank you, Chad. These are truly for me as a professional better. These are the dog days of summer. Not like normal people. My summer's really May to midway through June and that's kind of over. So try to stay busy. Me and Chad, we don't do this show that often. So summer of 2020, I'll try to make a quick story.

me and a couple of guys bought a row home. So it's about 10, like 10 homes condos in a row home up in North Jersey. Because our vision was, you know, we'll have six renters and then four will rent out to our runners that can live up in North Jersey. So they can be New Jersey. They can go bed in PA and they can bet in New York. So we hired a guy, you know, to do fix these places up. And again, this is summer of 2020.

I think he got in three and a half done and came to us in October of, 2020. So again, I'm in the middle of football season doing this stuff with you chat. And he goes, listen, I'm losing money now working for you guys because supplies have gone up much because everyone in America started doing fixing their asses up. So all right, we're sorry, buddy. You're fired. We got rid of hand. We'll do it ourselves. Blah, blah, blah. No one did anything. I would say for a good, good year. Honestly, because all of us, we already had three of them done. We're putting them out. And then we were letting the runner sleep in this, like kind of the beat up condos ever left there.

So I've been trying to go up there and fix stuff up, Chad. Now that we're in the off season, God, I'm not meant to it. These hands were not meant for hard work. Learning stuff, though, learned. You got to turn the main water off to the house before you start taking pipes out. I don't even want to get into the grossness of opening up pipes. I've been in a building for over 50 years, but you can imagine it.

So it's been experienced, let's say, trying to fix up an old row home. but I'm in loving it. It's honestly fun work learning to do this stuff because I have no handyman skill in my body. You and me both, buddy. Any single time something needs to get done in my house, light bulb changing, you know, the dishwasher jaw is a jar.

I look at my wife and I say, it feels like an architect's job. They're going to say this is why we had kids. Well, no. It's why she went to grad school. This is why you spent three years to get a graduate degree in architecture because you married a man who wants nothing to do with any of this. What you should do is hire Stacey and then Stacey can hire a contractor who can go up to North Jersey for you and figure it all out. Maybe.

Might take her up one. And we have, I would say, four places left to do. Again, the guy did three and a half in fall of 2020. All we've completed since then is about one. one and a half. So that lets you know, it lets you know how we're struggling. Simon, listen,

you're in the dog days of summer. Yep. You got nothing to do but renovate right now. Meanwhile, the NFL, as always, never ends. Put out its schedule,

dominates the conversation, days and days of programming. We got more to talk about. We got odds for prime time games. We got week one odds. We got, Eagles, Bears tilt in week 15. We got to talk about how I definitely went through the Bears schedule and tried to pinpoint every game that felt like a win.

It was not looking like a lot. We got Sean Kerner put out of strength of schedule. We got some win totals questions that people have been asking us about. Before we do any of that, let's get to the main event right now. NFL, 2022, week one. I've got thoughts on my favorite bets. You've got thoughts on your favorite bets. You go, I go, you go, I go, I go.

You go first. Week 1, 2022, favorite bet. Give it to me right now. So we'll dive in again on all these games, but early bets when you're looking at this stuff, you want to think how our lines are going to move through. So my favorite bets for week one are a lot of dogs, which I think might come down because all the pros are going to bet these numbers. There's some dogs that don't touch because I think the public's going to come in so heavy on the other side.

It's going to keep giving me a better number once you get closer to kick up. So people I've got to keep in mind here. Week one, I've never seen anything like this before. We have 10 home dogs week one. 10 home dogs, week one, Chad. Like every pro I know is licking their lips. We love home dogs. We love home dogs.

This is too easy. They're really, the public is so heavy about what happened last year that week one, they're still thinking as if it's last year. It's like, there's so much turnover. There's so many guys who are back healthy compared to these teams last year. It's completely flipped. And the bookmakers know that. And they kind of sucker these people into these bets, especially people betting road favorites week one. I mean, it's kind of crazy.

So my favorite bet right now for week one that just jumped out right away was the Texans. We have the Texans, people are viewing them as one of the worst teams in all football, going against a Colts team that, you know, they added to Matt Ryan. They're exciting coming into this season just because we saw how great Jonathan Taylor was. We saw how good this Colts offense could be when Carson Wentz was playing good. We expect Matt Ryan to be a step up from Carson Wentz last year. So I think the public is in on the Colts, which, you know, I get. I think the Colts are a good team.

But are they seven and a half? Are they eight and a half points better than the Texans week one in a divisional game on the road? no. So one of the first bets I made right when it came out was the Texans, a plus seven and a half, hit it again a plus eight. I took it again a plus eight and a half in certain books. It's one of those numbers that I love in a divisional matchup for an early week where we joke all the time, chat. It's just the same November. Okay, obviously this would be very, I'd do this very different if it was late in the season. Early season like this, I mean, come on. That's way too many points for any team to be catching on the road, let alone a Colts team. that did not make the playoffs last year. Like they don't have this moxie that they should be respected and backed with.

So to me, it feels that we're getting free points, maybe two or three free points from the public here, taking the Texans team. It's interesting. I couldn't agree more. Love the Texans in this spot. They were incredibly competitive last year. And I think the Colts are so inconsistent.

And they really have not figured out a way to dominate bad teams during the Frank Reich era, right? So that's number one. Completely agree with your assessment on the Texans, especially at such a big number. Number two, you said there were 10 home dogs. There's actually 11. I'm looking at it right now.

The Rams to open the week against the bills. The bills are one-point favorites. The Falcons are three and a half point dogs to the Saints. The Panthers are four-point dogs to the Browns. The bears are, six and a half point dogs to the 49ers. The Lions, four point dogs to the Eagles, the Texans, we mentioned. The Jets are four point dogs to the Ravens, the Cardinals, three point dogs to the chiefs,

the Vikes, one and a half to the Packers, Cowboys, two and a half to the Bucks, and the Seahawks, four points to the Denver Broncos. There's one game that I'm really surprised, excuse me, you didn't take first. Lions Plus 4 hosting the Eagles. This is a Roar Lions Roar spot. Not a Fly Eagles fly. A Roar Lion's Roar spot. It is a home game.

Dan Campbell is going to have this team jacked and ready to go. We already know this is a physical team. This is a team that can control the line of scrimmage. That bodes well, playing against a defensive line that the Eagles, that is in semi-rebuild mode. We know this team is going to be physical defensively. We've seen them be competitive. Jalen Hertz, we still don't know what we're getting,

even with more weapons. Lions plus four. You know me too well. Yeah, that was going to be one. That was going to be my next one. I mean, lines, they're actually up to four and a half now in Fandul. It's hard not to want to take this line right now, and I did take it, but I would say to people listening,

maybe you can keep waiting because I do think this is going to keep because again it opened up a three and a half now it's up the four and a half one fan duel and we're in May so that that's already showing you where the public is kind of deciding where they're going to put their money so to me I love that lion's number Chad just touched on it where we have a team that's very physical the Eagles that's what they're key the key for the Eagle success the subsequent season is they're a physical team good offensive line a strength in their D line you know that that's kind of the Eagles what they need to do to win. That's exactly what Detroit wants. Detroit wants to two bully teams. So to me, this is a tone setter. Both these teams, honestly, I feel like this

is going to be, we're going to look back at both one of these teams, but this game will maybe decide one of these teams getting the playoffs and one team missing the playoffs. Both teams are expected to finish second in their division right now. Not the Lions, I shouldn't say that, but the Eagles are. And that's, this is a crucial way to start your season here. But the Eagles, I know we haven't done much schedule talk. They have a very favorable schedule. The lions are right there with them. The lions got ranked. Most people have them ranked number one for scheduled. So to me, this is a tone center for this Eagles team, this Campbell team, where we think we're getting great value week one here. Because to me, I saw this line. I checked my

system, made it a pick. Now, this could move to maybe minus one towards the Eagles when we get closer to the season. If I start like what I'm seeing from them and I like their system, but I can see this line moving more towards Detroit as more people are going to get like Detroit. I'm telling I'm telling you guys, Detroit is going to be a darling to a lot of people coming to the season. The nerds, everyone, they look at the numbers. This is a huge number team. All the numbers point to this team massively improving from last year. How unlucky they were last year was one thing.

Again, they had seven games come down to five points or less for them. Like, that's insane for them last year. I think you only had, what, four wins to come in second. So, yeah, it's, it is tough where I'm looking at this matchup. And I obviously want the Eagles to be the pick here, but just going by the numbers, you're getting three, four points of value on the lines right now just because what I just talked about,

they're one of the worst teams last year, and it's a new year. According to Sean Croner, the four easiest schedules in the NFL in 2022, and you can find this in the Action Network app, very easy to find. Giants have the easiest, according to his model,

Eagle's second easiest, commanders third easiest lions fourth easiest um okay so you like the texans plus seven and a half plus eight plus eight and a half against the colts i like the lions plus four plus four and a half in week one against the eagles give me another one easy easy bet for week one ravens minus five and a half minus five. I would take this up to seven. No problem. The Jets, again, we're going to talk a little bit more about them coming down to show,

so I don't want to be just punching the crap out of them, but they're just not there yet, people. I get the excitement. I've seen the numbers how they're one of the most pet teams right now to go over their win total and to win their division. They're just not there yet. And historically, the Ravens Week 1, it's free money. Again, you always, this is for people like our loyal fans,

listen to us here around. every preseason game you take the Ravens money line. I believe they're on a run of like 13 and 0 or 14 and oh in preseason games winning straight up. Week one, historically hardball, his teams have dominated week one. I don't even remember if it was last year before. Remember they beat Miami like 50 to 10 week one? And Lamar Jackson threw like five or six touchdowns. There's just something about this Ravens team week one.

They always come really prepared. Now I have a Ravens team coming back from a down year, a bunch of guys getting healthy. coming back. So that's built into this number because the Jets team are just so hyped up right now. Like to me, this number should have been seven. That's a fair number for this game. The fact that you're getting under seven, under six, two very key numbers. I'm taking that Ravens number right now because usually I'm bet favorites this early.

But to me, that's such a key number of five and a half being under that six. I'm grabbing it right now, this Ravens number. I love that. I love that because I already feel like people act as if the Jets are, a 13-win team because they drafted the right athletes in the right spot at the right time. And they still got a quarterback named Zach Wilson, who nobody really knows if he's any good. So now everyone thinks the Jets can compete with the Patriots for second place in the AFC East. It's idiotic.

So much value on the Ravens, even though it's on the road. Love the team early. I'm going to give you one more. I don't want you getting angry at me. But if you give me a team whose quarterback is coming off an injury with a new coach going on the road as more than a field goal favorite against a division rival, I am going to take the home dog division rival in this spot. We are an Atlanta Falcons podcast. Give me the Falcons, plus three and a half against the Saints. I don't fear James.

I don't fear Marcus Marriota. I like this team to cover by a field goal in a close game between two not very good teams in Atlanta. Go, walk me back. Tell me I'm wrong, but I know you love it. I gave you gross. I gave you grosser than gross. I gave you professional grossness.

You know, people know I love doing Round Robbins. This is one of the teams Atlanta's Round Robin. I threw in their money line. Gross, disgusting. It might be the only game Atlanta wins the entire season. But Chad just touched on it. What a beautiful, beautiful spot for this Atlanta team. Hosting a divisional rival at home,

no one knows what the hell offense. Atlanta is going to be running. They got Marriota. Marriota. So to me, Atlanta is the team that's going to be terrible. But early on, they're going to be able to sneak up on teams. Just like last year, Denver, terrible team. started 3-8-0. Carolina, terrible team started 3-0. It's because they are running different

offenses. Teams weren't prepared for their type of offensive styles. So I love that pick, Chad. Three and a half, too, that's such a key number. I take the number as well, but this is a money-line bet for me as well because Atlanta, this game stinks. Like, no one's going to be betting their money line. Everyone's going to be coming in on, like you just said, the fun, exciting James Winston and Saints team. So if you want to hold out and not bet it, I get it, but I honestly would take the three-and-half right now because that is such a key number. Can I just say this? If I'm listening to this podcast for the first time,

you listen to me versus you and think Millman might be more of a professional better than Simon Hunter. Because you pet two underdogs. Because my picks are so much grosser. The Falcons and the lions. I'm going with the falcons and the lions. You at least Ravens in there who a lot of people think, is the best futures bet at like 20 to 1 at this point,

nobody's going to bet on my teams. Nobody's going to bet on my teams to even win to win to win to win to win totals. I am in professional form right now. We're going to dominate this year. I can't wait. Honestly, that was my first thought.

I saw like you just had 11 underdogs week one. I was like, oh my God, I have to wait all summer to bet this. It's going to be killing me. Because this, we love it. All these dogs, it's home dogs. It's the best.

We might win $30,000 in week one together. That's the goal. I know that's what you're betting on sort of one half time. But for me, that's a big amount of money. Yeah, that's going to be like the week before my Sunday futures. I'm just going to call my last minute futures are probably 30K. I'm not walking around with bags of cash. All right.

The other thing I want to mention, I talked about, not that we're done, with this, but I mentioned Kerner's strength of schedule because I do think it's interesting to sort of share what he's, excuse me, a little COVID cough, lingering COVID cough there,

what he's looking at because I mentioned the giants, the Eagles, the commanders, the lions, the fifth team there is the bears, and then sixth is Cowboys, seventh is Colts, eighth is Vikings, ninth is Packers, 10th is bucks. So in that top

10. There's a couple teams, Bucks, Packers, Colts, I think that a lot of people might consider to be Super Bowl favorites. So I just think that's interesting. How does it? Go ahead. I was just saying, I think people, if they know us,

they know now, like, we're all about you just not wasting your money and saving your money. And we were screaming all last year. Do not put a single dollar on the chiefs or the Buccaneers to make it back to the Super Bowl for the simple fact that we told you how lucky you need to get to make it to the Super Bowl. And there's no value in teams that just went to the Super Bowl to make it back to said Super Bowl. And look at what happened. I mean, the obviously Kansas City was a quarter away from making it. But the Buccaneers is just, there's just so much that's going right for a team to make it.

So like China said, those teams, there are the top ones. It's just don't, don't put your money into those teams. You can still find good value at the very end of the year with these certain teams. No surprise, the hardest strength of schedule, according to Croner, Sean Croner of Action Network, our lead predictive analyst. 32, Kansas City Chiefs, no surprise, considering they got the Chargers, they got the Broncos, and they got the Raiders. 31, the Raiders. Also in the top 10, the Broncos, and then the Chargers. So all four AFC West teams are in the top 10 of the most.

hardest schedule in the NFL, according to Sean Kerner. And by the way, the Seahawks, the Cardinals, and the Rams are all in the top 12. Just goes to show you how hard everyone thinks the NFC West is going to be. The playoffs are heating up and you can make every game feel like game seven on Fandual Sportsbook, an official partner of the NBA. Throughout the playoffs, all customers can place a no sweat, same game parlay each week. You'll get up to $20 in free bets if you don't win. Fanduel has so many ways to play.

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1-800 gambler or visit fanduel. com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-7-9-77, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-117 for confidential help in Michigan. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Podcasts.

Simon, there's one game on the board right now that we really got to talk about. Week 15, December, in Chicago, the Philadelphia Eagles are going to be visiting the Chicago Bears. You're an Eagles fan. I'm a Bears fan. I'm pretty allergic to the cold. I think you and I need to figure out who that listens to this podcast is going to be benevolent. and invite us into their suite for the Bears Eagles in December in Chicago. I know a guy in Chicago, he's like your client.

I can definitely reach out to them and see if I can make that happen with us, which would be hilarious to go to Soldier Field with a game with you. We're both our teams going to be six and ten, five and eleven at this. Like, they might be horrible this season. So I would love that, Chad. Going to Chicago with you. We got to figure out an event. Maybe we'll do like a live podcast the night before.

We'll hang out with fans. You know, we'll probably stay at my dad's with him and his wife. You can have one of the bedrooms. I can have one of the bedrooms. We can share a bathroom. It'll be like a sitcom. That'd be amazing. How fun would that be?

That'd be great, especially because I don't know another time in my life I'd ever go to Soldier Field for a game. You know what I mean? You know, we can go to Gibson's the night before and have dinner, fancy steakhouse, pick up some divorcees. That's where they all hang out. It's great for you. that's your speed man yeah kill it there oh my god you'd walk in although 45 to 55 year old divorced women would think you're so cute oh my god we would have so much fun now i've heard of viagra triangle as long as you don't take me there we're good that's that is the literal

center of the viagra triangle oh god that is one of the three points it is like dude That is right there. Oh, my God. Anyways, we got to figure out a way to get to that one. We'll make a whole event out of it. If we can get set. I just need to be inside. I cannot, I cannot do this outside.

I'm sorry. So reach out to chat. I know you fans have a box and you want me and Chad to be your friends for four hours. You know how to find us. We'll do whatever it takes. Yeah, we'll have you on the show with us too afterwards. Come on the show. You can talk about how amazing we were as guests, how we embarrassed ourselves.

whatever it is, I just need someone to invite us. That's all there is to it. A lot of talk about win totals after the schedule came out. Did you make any specific moves? Yeah, and just real quick, I'll go with my, I'll just tell you my top five and my bottom five for schedule. Because again, me and Sean, we're going to have a little different how we measure it.

So actually I have the worst schedule, even though they have the shortest amount of distance traveled. I have the hardest schedule is Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh just has a really tough schedule this year. them is 30 second i got 31st got the chiefs then i have the patriots then i have the bangles and then i have houston the jets which are pretty much one a one b they're pretty much the same grade so i really loved houston coming into the year but schedule gods did no favors they really don't have that favorable a schedule or on the flip side my five best schedules i'm again i'm not a homer

number one is the eagles they they have a really nice schedule number two is the lines which again Chad made those bets and talked about them before the schedule came out. I love the Lions coming into it. You look at the Lions schedule. They have no games against a team off a buy week, which is insane for entire season. They have no games against a team with longer arrest than them. So it means, you know, if they play on a Sunday, the team they play plays on a Sunday. If they play a Thursday, the team they played, whatever, isn't a longer rest than

them. So again, these little things work out for these teams. That's why, you know, we're going to talk about Lions over and the Eagles over and things like that. Sorry, I'll go back to it. but Eagles one, Lions two, Giants three, Bears, four, and then I have a coin flip between Washington and the Vikings in that fifth spot. So to me, it makes sense.

Okay, we just talked about teams in bad divisions. We expect the NFC East to be bad. We expect the NFC North to be bad. That makes sense why these teams would have favorable schedules. It's interesting. Yeah, for over under, buddy. Well, hold on one sec, because it's interesting. You and Kerner are basically aligned on five easiest, not the same order,

but the five teams. Yeah. And on, excuse me, five hardest, he's got the Steelers at fourth hardest. You've got him at second hardest, but generally the five are the same. Yeah, the only one that biggest different I saw was he had the Raiders having a much harder schedule than I did, which, again. I think that's because of the division. Their division, yeah, so it all makes sense.

But yeah, it always feels good when I'm on the same side as a guy like Sean, who I know is put in the time where I put in the time, but a lot of them, my numbers, it's like, it's going to be keep getting updated. So it's nice to see that at least I'm on the same track as a lot of these other guys. Yeah, you are. You totally are. I give me some win totals that you've adjusted since the schedule. And no shocker here. I love the under for the Jets. Again, I want our fans. We'll talk about it just real quick because we're such good loyal lovers of our fans. I got to keep to reach out to Matt. And that really says, you want to know, would you bet the Jets plus 550 to finish top two?

in their division and the AFC East? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I just would not do it at all. Miami, say what you want about them. I still think they're a step above. And with the Patriots, I know they're a step above. Okay, we watched the Jets last year. I mean, just get embarrassed by Belichick.

So to me, it's too tough with the bills, the Patriots, and Miami. All those teams are just so good. I just can't see the Jets doing it. And that's why I've been on their under in that division. It's going to be really hard to come by wins. Like, say I'm just being nice to them, and I gave them two wins, right? They steal one from Maine and they still one from the Patriots. They go through them from their division.

I could not find four more wins for them for the rest of the season. And the numbers check out. I put it into my system. I have them at 4.7 wins for the year. So the fact that it's been bet up to five and a half to six at some books, I really do love that under for this Jets team. And again, I love their future prospects. But this year, fade, fade, fade, fade.

they're too young. Jets are number one in both tickets and money. Jets over five and a half. Fandual, bet MGM, points bet Sears, and Draft Kings. You remember who numbers? At Sears, there are 43% more bets on the Jets to hit the over than on any other team.

This is according to Darren Revell in a story in the Action Network app. I was going to say, I remember at this point last year, you said the exact same thing about the Vikings. I believe it was 99% of all the money and bets were on the over of the Vikings. And what happened? We talked about it. They went just under by half a game.

So the books know they know when these numbers get inflated. The fact you're getting a plus number right now in this Jets just shows the hype that's happening right now in Fandall. So yeah, under five and a half is plus one 35. At BetMGM, the next most bet on teams are the Lions, six and a half over and the Steelers seven and a half. The Steelers total is interesting to me. look, Mike Tomlin just doesn't have losing seasons. It's a fine line between, you know, drinking wine and squashing grapes. And this is the Mitch Trubisky breakout year.

So I don't mind Steelers over seven and a half, even in spite of their challenging schedule. I loved it coming in because of the schedule you just talked about. I can't do it. I just cannot do in that division. And I was banking a little bit on Watson gets suspended. the more I read, it doesn't sound like that guy's going to get, you know, in real trouble. So that means we have a full, full and healthy Browns team, a full and healthy Ravens team, and we know what the Bengals are.

Last year, Pittsburgh was not, I don't want to say they were lucky, but they were catching this Ravens team banged up. They're catching this Browns team all banged up. It's, you just can't kind of predict that kind of stuff. So just look at the numbers, I would take their under. But that actually makes me a little nervous. You said Detroit is being one of the most bet on over teams because that was my next favorite bet. I loved Detroit of five and a half. I love them at six.

I love them at six and a half over. Seven, that would give me pause. But if you can still get six and a half, I would take that number right now if you're so inclined, just because their schedule lines up very nice. The Vikings have an entire new team, okay? They're switching their defensive style. The Zimmer's gone, right?

So they have a new offensive coordinator. They have a new DC. We've seen what's going to happen with the bears. The Bears are kind of in this fluctuation of rebuild. We don't really know what they're going to be because they, of course, have a new coaching staff as well. The Lions still have the same coaching staff, the same OC, the same DC. It's just all there for this Lions team to really take a step up. So as long as you're getting under seven still, I love this number for this Lions team.

It's even more so now the schedule is out. It's just all shaping up to be a good year for this Lions team to bounce back. And to me, I have them great out nine wins. And so getting an extra two and a half of games, that's a big discrepancy. That's why people are going to say I'm like losing my mind about this lion's team. It's just the numbers play out. Like the numbers really love the lines. I personally don't want to be doing this.

But I have to follow and trust my system that's saying this team is very, very undervalue just because of people's perception of this team. I don't want to do it. They're making me do it. I don't want to do this. I don't want to be the guy that loves the lions. you know, I don't want to be the guy that's like their motivation is let's play well early in the year so we can get flexed into a primetime game in weeks five to 15. I don't want to be that guy, but you're going to have to be that guy. Now, do you have speaking of prime time games like before we go?

Do you have any favorite prime time games? I know Matt Mitchell, what a dream year for the Buffalo Bill is opening night. They got a Thanksgiving game. they got, oh man. I'm looking at, I think I have five primetime games pulled up right here. Where's this six? That's insane. I think it's five.

Well, look, the Bears have a few primetime games, which I'm super excited about, super excited to ruin my night. But I do think that what the NFL did this year, putting the bills and the Rams on primetime and Thursday night, it's fucking beautiful. Love it. Yeah.

And I don't know if he's ever happened. Mad Mitch has ever had the experience. He's never won a Super Bowl. But as former Super Bowl winning fan of a team, having that opening night game is seriously the best. It's like, even though it's, again, the Rams game, you get to watch your team with everyone else, and then you're done for the weekend. You get the gamble, worry about fantasy. It's just a really nice way to start week one if you're a dire fan. But looking at this year's schedule, Chad, we got three games on Thanksgiving standard. We got three games on Christmas this year, which is NBA, fans, NBA holes must be pissed.

Dude. Yeah, stealing their thunder. We got three London games and we have a Munich game. They got a game in Germany and put up on it because I was like, I need to learn more about Germany and why they love football still. Apparently they have one of the biggest Seahawk fan bases in the world is in Germany. So the Seahawks are playing the Buccaneers in Germany. It counts as a home game for the Seahawks. Interesting. Very interesting that we have a game in Germany nowadays.

So again, three games in London, one game in Germany, another. game in Mexico City. It's crazy right now. The travel, all these different teams, I'm sure we're going to touch about it all season, but it's crazy. That's all over the world now. I believe they call it Munchin. Munich.

Munich. Munich. Munchin. I don't know. I've been there. I've been there. I had a beer the size of Matt Mitchell's head. You ever go on the Autobahn?

I don't think I did. No. I would. I'm not afraid of driving fast. Yeah. Simon, I think we covered it all. We really dug into the NFL. I feel really good about it. I'm super excited to be the professional better on this podcast and reframe my legacy.

I think it's bullshit. I'm not getting enough credit for knowing how to bet. Everyone thinks I'm just a guy just, you know, moving the conversation along. Here's Simon, gets to come in. Dude, I've been doing this for so long. I am a professional better numbers move when I make the fucking bet. I already know, Lions,

you're probably not going to get like plus four anymore. It's probably going to go down to three and a half. You'll be lucky to get the hook on the Falcons after this podcast comes out. Whatever. They call you Chad, the mover of numbers. So it makes sense right now that you're saying these things and you're worried about the line moving. You know what they call me?

Moneymaker. You're too old. You're just an old man. Moneymaker, from now on, please refer to me. That's a poker player from 2004.

And his name's Chris. Well, I'm stealing it. All right, for Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Milman. This has been the favorites

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