The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 10 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 13, 2021

Week 10 is no time for cowardice, and Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter of the Action Network once again team up to select their favorite plays on the NFL board. Lots of juicy underdogs have caught they eyes, including a terrific spot for Sean Payton and the Saints. They also hear a round of Sharp Calls and select their survivor pool pick of the week, plus so much more. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am your host, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Reminder, we are your place for news, data, analysis, research, information when it comes to betting on the NFL and everything else. Download our free action network app. It's award winning.

It's got everything you need on this podcast today. I'm going to be joined as I am every time we do this show by my BFF, my companion, my compadre. He's in the foxhole with me. He walks into Hornets nests in protective gear. He's triple vaxed. Professional better, Simon Hunter. Before we came on here, Cam Newton to the Carolina Panthers. What do you think of that?

Is that a real signing? Is this real? Dude, is that serious? We did not talk about this before we came on the air. No, I saw right before we hopped on on social media. Cam Newton apparently got vaccinated. So now teams are interviewing them. Carolina Panthers, Cam Newton.

Time is a flat circle. That would be crazy if you actually signed there. That would be nuts. I don't know that it would do anything. Honestly, if I were the Panthers, I'd still probably start PJ Walker this weekend. Oh, yeah. No, he's definitely. starting this week, but I think next week they play Washington. So it's just interesting all different

matchups. Big show today. It's Thursday. So we're going to narrow down the field, talk about the games that on Tuesday we loved, see anything that might have changed our minds based on the market news, based on injuries, based on prices changing. We're going to do our sharp calls. We're going to see who the wise guys called you about that they thought we were right or wrong on since Tuesday. We will do our big balls. bet of the week. Reminder on Tuesday, we said Washington football team plus nine and a half against the bucks was our Simon says. Our foxhole was the Saints plus three. It's already down to two and a half. So we're not the only ones with that idea. We will still do a money line parley, but we'll also still

offer a survivor pick. I got a lot of feedback that our survivor pick. I was to say people, people really want that survivor pick, Chad. A lot of DMs about it. So we'll talk about who we would take if we were still in it based on the teams that we would have remaining. I think we know who that's going to be. I'm going to keep track of it. So right now, we're going to count last week as if we took Miami instead of taking what we did take in Dallas. So it'd be as if we did win. That's nice. We can live in that alternate universe. But first, let's get to it. Sharp calls, baby. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? The earliest calls I got, Sunday.

night and Monday morning where guys talking about 49ers, they love that number. They thought that you're getting a good number of 49ers versus Cardinals at plus four. It's down to plus three and a half and a lot of books. The newest cause I got, people aren't going to like as much. They love Miami tonight, seven and a half. You can still get that hook. They're all over it. They think this is a really good position to be taking this Miami team. They're undervalued. You're playing against a Ravens team that historically they beat up on really bad teams. But it's not great when you're getting a physical team like the Ravens on a short week in a game, they just went to overtime against, against the team of Miami that they are terrible. I understand completely why people hate this

Miami team, but you just have to play the numbers here. You're getting seven and a half at home on a Thursday night. It's a hard not to agree with the professionals this one. And the other game they really kept reaching out to me about was they love our, they love our Jets pick, Jeff. Of course they do. So that was 13 and a half when we talked about. it's down to 12 at a lot of books now that Mike White's announces the quarterback. So not much has changed there as well. I would say the one they want us to stay away from, I don't know if we would even do it anyway, was the Eagles.

A lot of pros I've talked to like Denver actually in that matchup. So it doesn't matter anyway, we weren't going to do the Eagles because I've banned them for us. But a couple of pros I've talked to, they really like Denver in this matchup at home. Why do they like Denver, did they say? They just having the different projections where they thought last. Last week, that Eagles game was the perfect game for that Eagles team. They still lost.

So the one pro I talked to, he had at a five and a half for Denver. Another one talked to at four. I had the line of three, so I think it's a good number. That's why I kind of like the Eagles. But if you're just looking at a pair matchup on paper, the only way to really stopped Teddy is getting to them. The Eagles are one of the lowest teams and pressures on quarterbacks this year. They went to the lowest sack rates of all teams this year.

I mean, our biggest, our best guy, our highest sack rate guy, at Brandon Graham, he's been out. And you really noticed that the last couple weeks, Eagles are just not getting to the quarterback. So I think they're looking at a position that Denver is getting healthier. They got Jerry Judy back on offense. It looks like they got their running game going last week against an Eagles team that Slate could be out in the secondary,

just a couple different things with this defense that they just have not been good. And I think it's five different quarterbacks have been played over 80% against this Eagles team. Teddy is a really high percentage completion quarterback. This is a really favorable matchup for him. So it makes sense now when you really look back at it, why these professionals like Denver in this position. Well, now all of a sudden, I love Denver. I wasn't even talking about it.

Now I think it's like Denver's going to the Super Bowl. And that's why I love having different guys reach out to me because they kind of open up exactly what you're saying there. Like it kind of opened up an avenue. I wasn't looking at it. And then when you go back and look at it, you know what? Maybe I am too low. Maybe this line shouldn't be three and it should be four.

And they're right. You're getting an extra point or point and a half of value on this Denver team. So I'm right there with you. really didn't like them for that much going into this week and now the more I think about it, it's like, you know what, actually that's a good pick.

All right, well, maybe we'll add it to the list. Let's start with the game that we said was Simon Says. The Washington football team plus nine and a half against the bucks. I'll stick with it as Simon says, but I do have some trepidation

as we get further from Tuesday and our instant reactions. Are you feeling the same trepidation betting against Tom Brady after a buy than I am? No, and you can go look. I think teams after a buy this year are three and nine against the spread. Tom Brady has not covered a game on the road yet, which is something we love. Another thing I love about this game is I think I talked to three from bookmakers

and all them are getting tons and tons of Tampa money, tons of Tampa teasers. What is this line done? Nothing. It just sat there at nine and a half. So if it was going up, if it was at 11 right now, maybe I'd be a little. little worried because that means professionals have come in and bet Tampa. It's not looking that way. It just looks like it's all public money hitting this, you know, I can't blame him. Tom Brady, like you just said after a buy, you assume they're going to get it right.

But to me, this is just a prime example why you take this Washington team at home and kind of a letdown spot for Tampa Bay. I can't see them really getting up for this matchup as much as I'd love to say Tom gets up for every game. This is such a classic letdown game for this team. I'm not betting. I don't know if I'll have him in the round robin, the money line with Washington. Because Tom, if he has the ball at any time in the final couple of minutes against this defense of Washington, I just can't see Washington get stops. But at nine and a half, this line's overvalued by two points.

I still think you're getting a great number here. I do want it on the record. Okay. So we'll stick with Washington football team. Nine and a half. We still like it. I do want it on the record. I still like the lions.

That number's down to plus eight. I like it less. You still like the Steelers. You and I are on what they call opposite sides. Yeah, I don't love Pittsburgh. Oh, look at you walking back. I'm a man of conviction. I said the other day, I love the Lions.

I'm with you. The more I look at it, this is the classic, I'm going to end up taking Pittsburgh and Survivor pools, and this is the game they lose against the Lions, the first one of the season for the Lions. But no, it's nothing's really changed. I still, I'm still going to end up bed in Pittsburgh. I still think Pittsburgh is going to win this game and cover this number.

I just, I just have zero faith right now in the lines, but going off our joke that the lines don't cover one week and the final week they cover and they've done it all year. This technically is one of the weeks you take the lines to cover if you're going off that pattern this season. Also, you got the opposite of Rahra Mike. I love the false enthusiasm. I'm going to see if we can make one of you guys quit today.

They are a home team as a big favorite. with a quarterback that isn't playing well and has to score a lot of points to cover a big number against a team that is not going to quit. They are going to eat those kneecaps. They are not going to stop until they are full. They can be down 27, 14, and there's a minute left,

and they have just scored a touchdown, and they are going to onside kick it. They will just keep going. So this team, Detroit, we're going to kick you in the teeth. And when you punches, we're going to smile at you. And when you knock us down, we're going to get up. And on the way up, we're going to buy the kneecap off. All right, we're going to take your other kneecap.

Before long, where are they going to be the last one standing? If you have this passion Sunday morning, we'll probably have the lines in. Just all the, like I was going to have bed labs before he came on. There's a bunch of trends that favor what you're saying right now. I think Rothesberger has a seven and a half point favorite at home. He's 0.6 in his last six covering. So a bunch of different little trends that are really favored towards. what you're saying right now.

So why are you fighting me? Why even fight me? Why say that you're going to take the Steelers? Just because I make a number in my system. So if my system's saying this number should be eight and it was at nine, now it's down to eight, I still have to go with Pittsburgh. So that's how it goes, buddy. Well, listen, sometimes you've got to break away from the system.

It's true. Don't be beholden to the math all the time. Go with your feelings. We also talk a lot about the Browns and the Patriots. And this is one where the line was at one. Now the line is at two and a half. So we've seen money and tickets come out in the Patriots. I'm starting to feel like the Browns are the right side here.

If it gets the three, I might have to be there with you. That's what I was talking about. This line kept going up. But eventually at three, the Browns become the value in this position. And I think the line's just moving because of the Nick Chubb. Like he ease out, right? I'm pretty sure. So, you know, pros are looking at that.

They're saying, okay, the best weapon off this offense is gone now, Nick Chubb. But I don't know. It's, I'm right there with you. I don't have a great feel for it. But if it does get to three, and if it was three in our contest, our imaginary contest, I guess I would take this with the Browns. But to me, there's other matchups that I like better and there's more value on the lines. Yeah, I agree.

I totally agree. Let's talk about the Cowboys. Let's spend a decent amount of time talking about the Cowboys for a second. Because, well, before that, I don't want to shortchange the Colts. It was a big number. We like it. The Colts at minus 10. Do we contest like it?

Do we like it top five like it? Or do we like it like it like, you know, it's the right number and it's what we should do because this Jaguar team is coming off a big. big win, the Colts are coming off a buy. It's the right spot for them to blow a team out. Like, you know how I go, though. If it's, if I see there, I'm taking a double-digit favorite or double-digit dog, like, I'd rather take the Jets as a double-digit dog than take the Colts as a double-digit favorite. So I'm always going to go towards that, but yeah, I still love the Colts in this matchup. This is a classic, you just want to fade the Jaguars

off there. Such a huge win at home. Young team, part of them, been partying all week. it's it's not ideal because it's once again we'd be back in Carson Wentz and that's always just the roller coaster ride of roller coaster rides but that's a great number if it stays under 12 to me that's a that's a very very fair number for this cold steam so I still like it but like we can talk about this Dallas matchup that to me has been the most interesting movement of all the week is how the pros are really coming in on Atlanta and they bet this number down yeah I don't get it and I'm with you I like it's a weird game to me.

It feels like the exact right spot to be betting the Cowboys. From a matchup point of view, it plays to the Cowboys' strengths in which the Falcons are a team that is going to put the ball in the air. They're going to be in a position where the Cowboys can create turnovers. The Falcons running the Russian game is really not very good. the Cowboys are coming off such a huge loss that you're getting a bit of a discount on the number. Everything to me, smacks, take the Cowboys here. How do you not?

And that's why I don't really get with the pros are seen. This is such a Atlanta just had a huge win against a divisional opponent that they notoriously hate. So they've had a good, a nice week here where the Cowboys have an embarrassing loss at home. You know they're on it this week with practice. Another trend I love that I saw, what was I? It might have been 31 to 17. What was the trend? So basically a team that covers

the final week, they're playing against the team that did not cover, the team that did not cover the past week against the team that did cover now this week, it's 31 to 17 that team covers. That didn't cover the week before. So that's a classic matchup right here of that exact scenario where Atlanta not only didn't cover as a road dog. They won outright. Now going on the road again to play Dallas at home. We didn't cover at home. as a big favorite, how do you not, just going off the BetLabs numbers, how do you not just favorite towards the Cowboys with these kind of trends? So it's, I'm staying in my, I'm staying in my position here.

I feel actually way better about this one. With Pittsburgh, again, Sunday morning, you call me up, Chad. You're all about Detroit. I could easily talk to into Detroit. There's no scenario I get talked to No Lano this week. I love Dallas in this position. I feel like Cowboys right now are the most solid of the games that we are talking about, like in terms of our agreement.

Really? Yeah. All right. Absolutely. I'm still a little nervous about Washington football team, even though I chose it, by the way, I chose it as my Scrutulepick,

and you chose the Saints as your Scruturelette pick, and I had the first pick, and we're going to talk about the Saints, because now I'm like, Saints are going to win this game. And so I'm starting to feel a little regretful. Now, when we talked about the Saints, this is either a no-brainer.

We're going to crush this one, or it's just a classic professional trap. Like the only people bed in the Saints here are pros. We might be walking right into it. Cannot do it. This is another trend for you, from our friends at Bed Labs, 9 and 0, the Saints as a road dog, their last nine.

So come on. I mean, how can we not take the Saints here? This is also, it's the overreaction game of the week, right? And the Titans are so overvalued in the market based on the wins they've had the past couple of weeks. They beat the Colts in dramatic fashion with some flukiness. They beat the Rams in dramatic fashion, meaning Derek Henry is out. They're big dogs.

They're on the road. They're picking off mad staff or left and right. Yeah. There's some high variance in that game. They didn't win because they were a well-rounded team. And the Saints defense is just so good. you could argue it's probably one of the best defenses in the NFL. And so to me, you've got Sean Payton, who's amazing as an underdog.

I listened to Stucky and Raybond on the Action Network podcast this morning. Sean Payton, the second most profitable coach against the spread coming off of a loss since 2003. Like that. Like everything screams. This number's moved. It was at three. Now it's a two and a half in a lot of places. I still better at two and a half.

This could be that game. It could be that Colts game from a few weeks ago. But how do you not love this? Yeah. And I honestly would have this to be one of my bigger bets of the week. If it was not for the late ad of Kamara to the injury report, he has not practiced this week. We need Kamara.

I mean, Alvin has been unbelievable this year for this team. So we want to. to wait a little bit, see what's going on with that. But the fact that the numbers come down, even though he might be out of this game, actually makes me feel even better. It goes, oh, man, the bookmakers don't think doesn't even matter. This thing of Mark Engram can step in and be that guy for the Saints team. So very interesting that the injury news came out and the line moved the other way. So it's, I just want to keep my eye on it, but apparently the bookmakers think irrelevant if this guy plays or not. Well, look, I think it's an indication of all the money

that's coming in on the Saints. It's all the professional money. You know, this is that game that everybody is talking about this week. Every week there is one of those games. This is it. We're in agreement. Oh yeah. So right now, see, I looked at my notes this morning before we started the podcast and I felt like we were going to come out here with probably three games that we felt incredibly good about. Like lockstep, 100% locked in come Sunday, we're not going to waver. And the Saints and the Cowboys are two of those games to me. I'm with you there. I mean, to me, they're games that we kind of locked in on Tuesday.

Like we were going to take those. Again, we can talk about now this Denver matchup. I feel like that might be one of the late ads we might be throwing in there. We're not talking about it yet. It's not time for the Broncos yet. Okay. Don't try to overrun the rundown. I got my own notes.

Okay. Well, you got notes and I got notes. But we got to talk about the bills. in the Jets. Because you mentioned Mike White. The numbers move from 13 and a half to 12. And a half. The hype is real.

People, now you got, and we talked about this, a Jets team that beat the Bengals at home as huge dogs. Beat the Titans at home as huge dogs. Their defense plays well.

Mike White, maybe he's legit. Maybe he was just the guy who had to throw it 89 times, and that's why he threw for 500 yards or 400 yards in that first game. But the bills are stumbling bumbling right now. And two touchdown underdog at home, you blindly bet that.

It's not like if we're getting back to our principles and we're not going to be knocked off because of bad luck the past few weeks, you take the Jets. Yeah, obviously we loved it at 13.5. It's kind of tough now that it's down to 11, 12, but we still like the number. We still think the value's there. The craziest thing to me is that the Tennessee Titans, who beat the Buffalo Bills at home, played this exact team, like you just said, in New Jersey, they played the Jets. The line opened in seven and a half.

By close, I think it was down to four just because the pros is really came in heavy on the Jets. And Tennessee had a bunch of injuries going into that game. Okay. So that number closes at four. If this game says closes at 10, are the bills really six points better than Tennessee right now? I don't think so. So interesting what the bookmakers are doing here. They hung this pretty high just to get some public money, you know,

on a big number, on a big favorite, make them pay to tease it down. Now they're moving it down because that's how much professional is money coming on the Jets. They're right there with us, Chad. They're saying their subs, the NFL hasn't figured out Mike White yet. They don't know what defense to run against them. The bills, it's not that we predicted this coming into the year with them being this bad of five and three. again, that's not that bad, but they've had these games. They've lost.

They really shouldn't have lost. Now we're kind of getting that idea that, you know what? It's exactly what we talked about. Last year, Josh Down had the best career of his life. We were saying to him, do it again. And then we'll believe in you. Do it back-to-back seasons. It's not looking like it did last year.

A bunch of different things he's doing wrong. It's kind of, if you're a Bill's fan, it's got to be a little worrying that this is your franchise quarterback, and he's reverting back to old sloppy half. habits from his rookie year. So as much as we love the Jets here, this is a prime spot to get right for Josh Town. This is one of the worst past defenses in football in the New York, New York Jets. They have a good front line, but their secondary is terrible. So if he's going to figure it out, this has to be the match for Josh town to figure it out. But I got no issue taking Mike White here

in a backdoor situation where if he has the ball, I'm excited to see what this kid can do because I've only seen him maybe 10 full drives by him in his career. He's put up points in about eight of them. Like he is really good at driving the field and doing stuff with this offense. So if the bills keep running the defense, they've been running like they ran last couple weeks, they've been running kind of a weird zone scheme where it's kind of what these teams are doing against Mahomes or just giving up the short stuff. They're letting you run it against them, but they're not going to let you beat them deep.

That's where Mike White thrives. That's what the Colts ran against him. He was hitting guys in between the numbers all up and down the field. I mean, he drove down the field his opening drive. It's a big number, but I'm not scared of it. The fact that it's come down is the only problem that's like, I'm not going to try to harp on that too much because that's what burned us last couple of weeks is me being too much of a, oh, we're not getting the best of the number.

I don't want to take this number. I feel like we have to take the Jets as long as it's above 10.5, 11. What's interesting about this Bill's team is fascinating. And the Titans team is fascinating. And what you just said about this number and the delta of about six points of value based on the bookmakers math between the Titans and the Bills, that speaks to why we are also confident about the Saints in that the betting markets that are the professional betting markets of bookmakers and wise guys have zero respect for the Titans. They look at that record as completely fraudulent. I feel better about betting the Saints now knowing a little bit more about the sort of transitive properties of that Bill's Jets number.

Now I'm with you on that. All right. I'm not uncomfortable with this. You know what? I think it was our friend Bruce Ariens who once said, no risket, no biscuit. Guess what? I fucking love biscuits. That's definitely.

It's not really true. I'm not a carbs guy. But if I did eat carbs, biscuits would be the carbs that I eat. Oh man, you got to get some Hawaiian bread. That's the carb you want to eat. We got like the Hawaiian bread in my kitchen right now. My man.

My kids love it. My kids love the Hawaiian bread. They do. By the way, thanks to a lot of people tweeted at me and said, they hoped my kid was feeling better, which is really sweet of people to do. Yeah, I got DMs too. I said, tell chat this.

That's funny. Yeah, he's doing well. He's sitting on the couch right now, zooming into his classes. being treated like a king. And now, a few words from our friends at Fandau. The NFL season is flying by and there is a big week 10 Monday night matchup between division rivals, the Rams, and 49ers. Fandual Sportsbook is about to make it even bigger because Fanduel is giving new customers

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It was two and a half. I think the Vikings were the right side anyways. We weren't talking about it in our contest. Obviously, there's some COVID potential COVID issues there. And now all this Dalvin Cook news coming out. So it feels like a pass to me. Yeah. And like the drama with Dalvin Cook, like this guy is either a victim or he's a horrible human being.

He's trying to play a victim where he did something terrible on a domestic violence case. So I'm right there with that. I don't want to get burned anymore by this COVID news, by these backups. Let's just stay away from this one. Can we talk about the Panthers and the Cardinals, though? Please. Are we missing an opportunity with the Panthers? one of the reasons why what's that we're on the we talk we like the panthers Tuesday we did I don't

have I don't have it in my notes do you well our big thing was we wanted to make sure Sam Darno was out and he is so we're in baby oh dude then we are 100% in on this game yeah no the joke was like the line the bookmakers hang this line saying we don't care of the quarterback is if it's Cole McCoy we'll let it be 10 and the public's going right there with him they're And you know what? We're with you guys. This is a good number. We'll take the 10.

So I like this Carolina team, but if we're going to end up on one of these big dogs, we're definitely going to Jets over Carolina. PJ Walker, I feel like his first pass is a pick six when he came in a couple weeks ago. Or maybe it was a drop pick six, but it's scary taking this kid. But Cole McCoy, 10 point favorite, come on. That's insane. Come on. Man.

Against this defense of Carolina? I mean, you got to take Carolina. Have I told you my Colt McCoy story? Don't you dare. Our good buddy, Dave Beck, Chicago Bears, texting me the other day. He's like, we've heard the Davex story. We've heard the Davex story.

We've heard it like four times. It gets more painful every time, too. That's the best part. What can I say? I'm an old person who only has so many stories. and I can't remember them all. But we love this Panthers game. Yeah.

I do. I really love it. Again, I'm going to paraphrase Stucky here from their podcast this morning because they loved it too. And one of the things that stood out to me, he had some great insight talking about regression. And we've talked about this with the Cowboys a lot in relation to their turnovers. And it's why last week they're like, we had the Cowboys in the Survivor Pool, but I don't think we were convinced they were going to cover. And they are so reliant on turnovers to create offense and win their games. There had to be regression. The Cardinals, according to Stucky,

they fumble most in the NFL, lose. The second few is fumbles in the NFL. Opponents are fumbling the second most in the NFL against them, losing the most against them. So they're getting some really lucky bounces. And if you look at the Niners, early fumbles led to early points, against the Browns, big win, early fumbles led to early points. Like, there is a regression coming for this team. And if it's going to be Colt McCoy, if there's not going to be DeAndre Hopkins, if there's not going to be A.J. Green, a Panthers defense where we know they want to run the ball and the Cardinals defense is 31st in the NFL in yards per rush. That to me, says Panthers. And the stuff is interesting on the regression stuff is sometimes when it happens as quick as you'd

like it to happen. So that is always a little bit of risk where, I mean, even just think off the top I had the Eagles year we won the Super Bowl. We had the same exact thing. We had the highest fumbling rate without losing fumbles because our quarterback was Carson Wentz, who fumbled. I felt like every game, but someone I always got it back. So I'm with Stucky though. I look at this Cardinals team that I do think they're good. They're a playoff team, no doubt. Are they the, you know, no doubt number one seen the NFC? You know, there's 7 and 1 right now. Everything is just going right. I don't know about that. And the Cole McCoy back-to-back starts, this is like, this is what we always say about Cole McCoy. He can give you one or two good starts, but eventually he's going to fall off a cliff.

And in this matchup, you have to take Carolina's defense. They played well against New England. It was more about Sam Darnold, just giving three picks, short fields. That's how they lost. We got, we talked about the Broncos and Eagles. So we'll leave them on the list. I don't think we need to say more about that. Okay. We have two other games we want to talk about. The Raiders, plus two and a half against the Chiefs. You've been on the all year and you've been ahead of the market on them and you've continued to stick with them and I have been defiant. I was right last weekend against the Giants. Yeah. I feel like they're a live dog this weekend. Yeah, but that's the scariest part is everyone's caught up to it now with this

chiefs nonsense. Chiefs are still favorites. I know. And the crazy part too is the bookmakers are still respecting the chiefs. Like that number they hung last week, they hung to seven and a half or maybe one maybe one up to eight at one point. They moved all that number all up to eight. when Aaron Rogers announced to be out. Public came in heavy. They bet it down to seven and a half. They bet it down to seven. The bookmakers let it stay at seven and a half.

That was an easy cover for the public last week, fading the chiefs. So they might have over-adjusted now at this point, but you're giving me a, I feel like the Raiders are a better team right now with everything that's going on in Kansas City. All the drama that's going on, Mahomes just hasn't looked right,

that offense does not look right. That defense is still terrible. I mean, just because in Jordan Love's first start that he couldn't do anything, and you only put up whatever it was seven points. That's more about the problems of Jordan Love. Their car is going to have a day against this Chief's defense. So I'm right there with you.

I like Las Vegas. I like them on the money line. I might have been taking the two and a half. This is truly a whoever's last possession is probably going to win this matchup. So I like Las Vegas a lot in this position, but I don't know if it's going to win my best five. If it was three, three and a half, I'd feel way better about taking this number.

I think we're narrowing down a pretty good list, though, right now for Sunday that we feel decently strong about. Let's talk about the Niners before we get to Moneyline Parlay and Survivor. This next game has to be our big balls better the week. It must be the big balls better the week. Because we already did Washington football team, as Simon says, you know what we're going to talk about. New York Jets, huge underdogs at home against the Buffalo Bills.

Big balls. Balls, better the week. Oh my God, we almost did that in tune. All right, let's talk about this Niners game. Really interesting to me. Really interesting to me. We loved it. We thought it was too many points in a divisional matchup.

We thought that the market was coming off the Niners in a way that felt like it was a little bit too much. The line has moved in the direction of the Niners. It was at four and a half in some places. It's down to three and a way. a half. You were getting calls immediately that they had this power rate at San Francisco one. So there's still a decent amount of value there. Talk to me. What are we thinking right now? And it's only making me feel better as the week has gone along here. A couple more pros are on it. They love the number as well. Talk to a couple different bookmakers in the Philadelphia area and a

couple down at AC. They say this is one of their smallest handles. Like more people are betting on Washington than I bet in the 49ers. We got a perfect storm here, Chad. This is what I always talk about. It's a rare opportunity where you have a standalone game. So it's a prime time game. You have a home team getting less than 10% of the money and 10% of the bets. Love, love, love. If I haven't been licking my wounds so hard the last couple of weeks, this would be one of my biggest bets of the season.

Like I'd be all in on this bet. But I'm trying to be the professional and say, you've been cold. Don't force the hand here. Because this is like a poker hand. Like I have pocket aces right now. Like the only thing I can screw me over is the flop. I'm just trying to be smart here because it's, is too easy. The public is going to get sucked in here. Even if they have a great Sunday,

they're going to lose it all in this game because everyone's going to be bed in the Rams. They love the Rams. When this moves down to three, which I think it will, the public's going to come in so heavy on this number. Take the 49ers, well, you still can get the three and a half. This is a prime, prime time to take this number. They suck. I know Shane Han sucks. They're terrible. Everything's going wrong for them. This is a get right game for them. This is like the perfect time you want to take. you're literally buying at the lowest of value the whole season on this 49ers team. It ain't going to get any lower than it right now.

So nothing's changed. I still love this number. I'm just not going to be betting close to six figures on it just because I've just been that cold. Why you so fucking scared? I'm a coward. Play the drop, man, Mitch. I'm a fucking coward. I'm calling you out.

Simon Hunter, professional coward. What am I looking at right now? You're a coward. You ain't nothing but a guttless yellow turn. My hell, you're just a goddamn coward. What's wrong, dude? You yell up. You're a coward.

Pull up those pants and be a man. You're going to get out there, son. Don't let me down. You hear me? You're goddamn coward. Be a man, Simon. Take the 49ers. Pathetic.

You're a fucking coward. I am. When I knew you, when I knew you, you were not a coward. I know. This job's ruined me, Chad. I used to be a man. I had hair in my child. chest. Now I shave my chest. I feel bad. I feel bad that I did this to you. I feel bad that I,

tempted you with fame and no fortune. Yeah. And no callous on my hands. Look out. No callous. Easy life. You're fucking soft. I agree with you. It sounds like I'm forcing it in. Cowboys, Niners, Saints. I said we'd come out of this with three that we love. We love Cowboys, Niners, and Saints. I think when we talk on Sunday, it's going to be a debate between, for the final two, Raiders, Panthers, Broncos, and we'll see what happens with the Browns and the Lions. And whoever Chris Raybon takes in our show, we won't fade them, no matter what.

No, not going against them. Raybon is on fire. He swept everything last week. Yeah, so this podcast. Not going against them. Sweep the, it's crazy. Whatever Rayvon says, we're just going to be like, all right, Chris.

Yeah, pretty much. That's it. All right, let's say. The Survivor. The Survivor. pick of the week. Let's say, yeah, let's say we took Miami and Survivor last week. If we took Miami and Survivor last week,

I feel like we're taking the bills this week. On the road? Well, then we're taking the Colts. So we already used Colts in ours. We took them against the Texans. So that's why we're either looking at Pittsburgh or the Cowboys. Well, we're taking the Cowboys then. We think the Cowboys are going to cover.

So love the Cowboys. We love the Cowboys. Yeah. That's easy. That'd be amazing if we got burned two days. weeks in a row by the Cowboys, but I have to take them and survive it here. Yeah, we got to take them here. What about the Moneyline Parlay?

I'd be tempted on the Panthers here. I don't hate it. So I was going to go with the Jets just because they're at home. And I like it's a bigger number. I know the bills, it's a divisional game. They need it. But that's even more reason. I just, their wheels are spinning right now.

I just like the way the Jets have been playing. So I'll throw the Jets in there. Chicago will have Carolina and his. So right now I have, this is actually a good big, big week for this one. If this hits, it would be a really nice payday. I got the Jets. I got the Washington football team. I got the Saints.

I got the Raiders and I got the 49ers. I don't hate, like, if you wanted to add this one in, is the Seahawks just because Aaron Rogers might have really bad lasting effects from COVID. As someone that had COVID, I still don't feel right mentally. I still feel like there's little things like that where it just, it just fucks with your system. So I don't know how he affected him. But we saw last year these other quarterbacks come back from it and they just weren't right. Like, Lamar wasn't right for a couple of months.

He just was not in shape. Because again, it's a virus that affects your lungs. So we didn't really talk about the Seahawks because I kind of want to stay away from it just because Russell Wilson got pins out of his hands not even seven days ago. It's weird. It's just a weird. That's why that number is so weird to me. And the fact that it's come down, the professionals obviously like the Seahawks of this match up. I just don't really have a feel for it.

I was on the Green Bay side. So if you throw the Seahawks money line in there, you want to take out one of these big ones in Washington football team in the Jets, I get it. I just like playing these big numbers because of the value of the whole, over the whole season.

Yeah, guy, like, I had pins in my thumb. Oh, yeah. I had him taken out. I was, I was balling the next day. Really? I mean, literally crying, not falling. What was that like, though? Like, did it feel normal,

like literally right after? words. It's fucking weird. It's really weird. But look, they'll shoot him up. They'll wrap it. He'll play. He'll be fine. I'd rather bet on Russell Wilson seven days removed from pins than Aaron Rogers, uh, off of COVID, having seen how challenging it can be for people to come back from that, having not practiced for two weeks. Yeah, that's, I'm with you on that. But I've been burned by these situations all year. So I'll just, I'll just pass. Okay. All right. All right. All right. We've done Survivor. We've done Moneyline Parlay. We've narrowed down our picks. I will remind everybody, watch convince me Sunday mornings at Action Network HQ, 11 a.m. Eastern.

We'll dig in a little deeper. Reminder for Scutte Roulette, I took Washington plus nine and a half. Simon took the Saints plus three. I'm kind of regretting. My choice. Our big balls, better the week is the Jets plus 13. Our Simon says is Washington football team plus nine and a half. Our Foxhole is Saints plus three. I am Shadden Milman. for Simon Hunter. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network download on Spotify, Apple Podcasts,

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