The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 24, 2021

It's a special Thanksgiving edition of the podcast this week, as Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman welcomes his professional bettor BFF Simon Hunter on to give their top picks on the NFL Week 12 board, including all 3 Thanksgiving Day games. Is Andy Dalton the QB to back in the early game? Are the favored Cowboys a trendy pick worth tailing? And is this the perfect buy-low spot on the Buffalo Bills? Plus a Foxhole bet of the week, a Simon Says pick, a Big Balls Bet of the Week and more!CHI DET - 9 MINLV DAL - 13 MINBUF NO - 17 MINATL JAX - 22 MINNYJ HOU - 23 MINTEN NE - 24 MINPHL NYG - 27 MINTB IND - 31 MINPIT CIN - 34 MINMIA CAR - 36 MINLAC DEN - 38 MINMIN SF - 41 MINLAR GB - 42 MINCLE BLT - 45 MINSEA WFT - 48 MIN Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Call 1-800 Next-Next Step to 53342 in Arizona. 1-888-78-7-77 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. Connecticut, 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia. 1,800-270-7117 for confidential help in Michigan called the Tennessee Red Line at 1-8009-9-8-8-9 or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving.

A lot to discuss. This will be our only podcast of the week. Thursday is Thanksgiving. We don't expect anyone to be downloading podcasts on Thanksgiving. We expect them to be betting on football. We expect them to be ignoring their family on Thanksgiving. So Simon and I, we're going to load this podcast like a Thanksgiving plate. we are going to stuff it like a turkey.

Happy Thanksgiving gamblers. We're thankful for you. We're going to get to the full slate. We'll get to the big balls bet of the week. We'll get to the Simon says, bet of the week. I'm talking, of course, about Simon Hunter,

professional better, my co-host on the podcast. We will do a scooch roulette. So I'm in. That's the best week, Chad. Thanksgiving week. I mean, I feel like if you're a dire football fan, this has to be your favorite holiday. You get to eat all day and you sit on the couch.

No one can say anything to you. You just watch football all day. It's just a great day. And the games are always just terrible. So it's truly the best holiday, in my opinion. It's an amazing day. I truly love it. It's very American too.

Like Fourth of July, you blow stuff up, which is very American. And then on Thanksgiving, which is a very American holiday, you just sit around, eat food and watch football. And bet on football. Bet on football. And you know what's exciting? It's very possible. We are probably right now the two best betters in America. Because what happened two weeks ago with our five picks?

We went four and one. What happened this past weekend with our five picks? We went four and one. We lost the Falcons on Thursday. We should have known better. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not going to lie.

That was terrible. One of us should be blamed for that. Because that, that was ugly. But we rallied because we told everybody a week ago today, bet the fucking Texans money line, people. This is the spot. Bet the Texans money line. Simon said, bet the Texans plus 10 and a half as soon as it came out.

We did all those things. We had them in the contest. We won. we had the bears in the contest. We won. We had the Vikings in the contest. We won. Who else did we have in the contest?

We had the Colts in the contest. Dude. And we had the Colts on the money line. Yeah. So that's, that was one of those weekends. It's just a reminder to the fans of the show. Like, I love them. They're just loyal.

And they've been through it with us all season. And last week, we gave out Washington, football team money line against the Buccaneers. No other show in the world is giving you that money line. That hit. We gave a Carolina's money line against Arizona. That hit. Then this past weekend, we got the Colts money line.

That hit. We gave a Houston's money line. That hit. I feel like that's what separates our show from other shows is no one's given that out. No one's given out the one in eight Houston Texans on Tuesday to go beat Tennessee who's eight and one. It's, it's one my favorite thing about betting is when you're seeing it clear like that.

And it's just like when that game got government. I was sweating because they're kicking field goals. But it was exactly how I planned. And I was giving shit to a lot of the guys I work with because they rejected my big bet. Like Bob texted me, you goes, man, you're going to kill me on this one. And I just texting them back, you made a mistake. Because that's what they did, passing on that Houston one. I knew that was a horrible number.

I had it at seven. It was 10. And I was just not like the only game we really had those sweat was that Vikings one. And I guess you could say bears, but not really. But the Vikings one was so classic. Like I was thinking myself, I knew me and Chad were going to get burned by Kirk. But luckily it all came through four and no. We're three games out of being back to 500, which is crazy to think because we were just dying there.

But apparently we didn't do it as bad as I thought because if we go five and no this week, we'll be two games up 500. Yeah, it's been a crazy year in which all the fundamentals we believe in have not played in our favor until the past couple weeks when things have started to sort of round out into forward. You mentioned just now your big bets. And I know the week before, for people who know, you're part of a syndicate, you've got a lot of clients. You will give out really big bets three to four times a year. And you won the first couple of times you did this. You lost on the Colts plus seven.

I think it was against the Titans. And that hurt quite a bit. And the last couple of weeks, you want to do the Niners. This past week, you wanted to do the Texans. and you've got to find a consensus and your team has to agree with you. Someone had DM'd me. What are the other two big bets?

You were on the Colts and what were the other two? You don't remember? No. Ravens versus Chiefs. I think it was a Monday night game. Oh, my God. We nailed that. Yeah.

So Ravens went out right, but I think we had four and a half or maybe three and a half. So that was a nice one. And then I get, I do do a little bit of chalk. People are shocked. I get shockey with it.

I do if I think it's a good number. So it was the chiefs and the Buccaneers money line. So it was a little money line parlay. That was my other biggest bet of the year. So that was when I got really lucky. Yeah, New England hit the doinked off the field goal. So that's why I don't always do that, but I just do money line to play it safe where like we talked last week,

I couldn't believe it. A professional group had came in really heavy on the Buccaneers minus 10. That's rare that a pro group will take a double digit favorite. they won't buy 20. Clearly those guys knew that was a bad number last night. So I'm a coward. I go the other way. I try to do money lines. Some pro groups really do take those big numbers and they win all them. Yeah, I remember both of those plays that I remember talking about that Bucks Chiefs thing and how nervous you were and talking about on the podcast before the games. It felt too easy. Yeah. I hated that. Like I hate when it feels too easy like

that, that's that was the same reason like we talked on Sunday about the Colts. I had the number at three, I didn't get how the bookmakers were off by so many points. I didn't get why the Colts line was plus seven. Sure enough, it played out. They beat them by what, 40 points. So that was when the bookmakers just lay bad lines. That happens all the time. That's the scariest part, though, is before the game start, you're like, I don't get it. What am I seeing that no one else is seeing? Why is this so easy? So that, that was a nice one. But like you just said, we're already into, we're already into next week. Six weeks left, chat. Six weeks left in the season, buddy. Let's rock and roll. We got a Thursday Thanksgiving spectacular.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions. My phone has been blowing up all morning because there are rumors out there that Thursday will be Matt Nagy's last team coaching the Chicago Bears. Right now, they're about three-point favorites. They'll be the opening game against the Lions. I mean, look, last week it was Tim Boyle against Baker Mayfield. This week, I haven't seen reports about Jared Gough? No, it's, it's Dalton, but it's Dalton, right? It's Andy Dalton, but I don't know if it's Jared Gough or Tim Boyle. Oh, I'm assuming it's Tim Boyle.

Here's what I think. If it's Matt Nagy's last game. It's not, though. You don't think it will be? Isn't the whole Bears history they've never fired a coach in season? I know, but I've been thinking about this. And like, at this point, they're not going to hire a new coach. Part of the reason they do that is because they are incredibly cheap.

And so, like, they don't. like to fire coaches and have to pay them out. It's why they brought back Ryan Pace. It's why they brought back Matt Nagy. So my feeling is at this point, you're not going to go higher a new coach. So it doesn't matter if you fire him right now. You're going to have to pay him either way. And it's only like the rest of the season. So it's a sunk cost. Why not just get rid of him? So that's the rumor going around in Chicago right now. Last night at the Bulls game, when the Bulls were down by 30 to the Pacers, and yes, I was. was watching that. Shout out Stacey King and Adam Amin. Best broadcasters in the NBA.

They were chanting fighter Nagy at the United Center. Swear to God. Chicago hates Matt Nagy. He's been a train wreck, so I get it. Yeah. That said, bears by three, if it's his last game, with a steady Eddie Andy Dalton against a terrible Lions team, or is this the time the Lions rise up. No, you know what to do here. You take the Bears here. You do. You really do. I believe the lines since, I believe they're 6 and 10, ATS on Thanksgiving, their last 16. There's a weird trend on Thanksgiving. Favorites win, even public favorites. Like people getting all the money, these favorites usually cover and win. You really love a favorite people don't like on Thanksgiving. And that's why I think we end up with the Bears team. We want these rumors.

Please, more rumors in media. Give it, give us more. that's only going to drive the public to the lines. We've seen it time and time again this year. When the public's coming in heavy on the lines, you want to go the other way. That's usually like, this line reminds me a lot of the Eagles line. Remember that Eagles line was three and a half.

So it's, I already can see myself zagging on this. I made this over under 243. I see it's down to 41, 41.5 at some book. So I'll be on the bears. I'll be on the over. Just can see a lot of turnovers come from that guy,

Boyle. You're not going to have dead arm back there, Baker Mayfield, not be able to cleat ball four yards. Andy Dolan's been putting it downfield. Like that game against the Ravens, he was putting it downfield when he came in. He was completely changed that game once he came in. So clearly Andy Dolan's more comfortable in this offense than field. So the fact that it is Andy Dolan, yeah, I feel good about taking the bears.

I like this number at minus three and a half. As long as it stays below four or at four, that's a good number to me on this game. All right. Well, this will be the game that I'm watching and sweating and being miserable about while I prep my turkey. Road favorites, 10 and 2 against the lions on Thanksgiving. I think it is our big balls bet of the week.

Love it. I mean, the Bears, is that by far the biggest one? Like, no one wants to bet that team. The Bears are definitely that team that we're going to wake up.

We're going to have instant regret when it's 7-0 Detroit. And it's going to feel like it's going to take forever to get Andy Dalton to get us over that hump. But I believe, I believe in the Bears team. Just this one game.

Big balls. Let of the week. On the Chicago Bears. My team, the Chicago Bears. They have my heart. They have my money. Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys. Raiders, eight point underdogs, seven and a half point underdogs on the road,

visiting the Cowboys who did not look good. You and I completely disagreed on this Chiefs Cowboys game. Yeah. You also like the over. I like the under. So I never said I, ah, a guy, guy, guy. I was noncommittal on the total. No, you're pretty dismissive.

People are saying you're real dismissive about that. And I think it went under by 26 points. I, I wasn't dismissive about that. You're referencing the show convinced me that we do on Sunday mornings. And I will say to people, like, because we don't have a show on Thursday this week, watch convince me at 11 a.m. I'm Sunday because that is when you'll get like, our freshest ideas on what's been happening during the week, 11 a.m. at Action Network HQ.

It wasn't dismissive. I just liked what someone else was saying better about the Browns and the Lions. It turned out to be right. I loved the Chiefs minus two and a half. You talked me off it. Raiders plus seven and a half. Or are we betting the Cowboys? Oh, God. I hate that I have to take the Raiders here, but I really don't want to. But C.D. Lam's out. Amari Cooper's out. That offense, he looked lost like no receivers can open against a awful chief secondary. I know the Raiders secondary has been great this year, but I mean, man, that's a lot of points to be given the Cowboys when they have the two top weapons are out.

So I will be taking the Raiders here, but ever since the Ruggs accident, they just have not been right. They've had back-to-back games now. They've just been terrible. So I will be on the Raiders, but I don't know if this is going to be one of my better bets of the week. I don't get this wise guy I love for the Raiders, to be honest. Like, it continued last week with the Bengals.

It happened the week before. They've gotten blown out in both games. Why can't wise guys quit the Raiders? I told you a really wise guy group came in and bet they're under of wins after that whole incident happened. That's true. And they bet the under it's six, which is like crazy because they're at five wins. So there are some groups out there that are on this.

I think they're looking at the still standpoint from I'm looking at where it's like their car is, yeah, obviously hasn't been good these last couple weeks, but he is good this year. I think he's fourth in the league and passing yards. And you have a defense. against pressure when they rush four. That's a big deal in football. Not a lot of teams have that kind of ability. So that's why I think they keep coming in on this Raiders team.

But Derek Carr, he's the reason this keeps getting let down. This guy's throwing picks in the fourth quarter, giving the ball up and turning into seven for the other team. So that's why, like, it's hard to say that I want to make this one of my bets, like four or five, but it feels like I have to bet this as a professional. This number is way too inflated. And I think it's just because it's a holiday game. Like they opened at seven out.

Now it's up to eight, eight and a half at some books. it's just the public's going to come in so heavy on this Cowboys team. And they are. The public is coming in. It's like 65, 35. That makes sense. But again, their two top weapons are out.

Like they couldn't do anything against a bad chief's defense. Of course, I see the Dallas bouncing back here. But bouncing back, being a team by more than double digits, I just don't see it with this team as they are right now. By the way, you mentioned the Lions are a team that when the public is backing them,

you want to fade? They're getting 60% of the bets. Right. It's all the drama going on with the Bears team. I think everyone's just going to be off of them. But I just think it's all noise. Like I get that he might have lost that locker room. He didn't lose Andy Dalton.

Andy Dalton's playing for his career right now. So like if you have a guy, you're giving me Andy Dolan. I know he's terrible, but him versus Tim Boyle, I feel like that really skews that matchup towards the Bears. Even versus Jared Goff. Yeah. But Tim Boyle had two picks last week. In a game, I think he threw the ball and he like 16 times.

The guy is, he's bad. Andy Dalton, professional rifleman. Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints. I do want to throw to Matt Mitchell for a second. We have gotten requests in my DM that people like when Matt Mitchell has something to say. The Buffalo Bills are playing on Thanksgiving. It's Matt Mitchell's favorite team playing on his 100% favorite holiday. If there was ever a holiday that matches a human more, I can't think of it.

it's Matt Mitchell getting to bet and stuff his face with food and watch his favorite football team as four and a half point favorites against the New Orleans Saints. Matt Mitchell, please weigh in. The best part about this game is actually that the game kicks off after both children will be asleep central time, which is exhilarating for me. And also that this will be the first time ever in my life, but I'll be in my own home on Thanksgiving. I don't have any other responsibilities other than doing exactly as you outlined.

Eating that second dinner, that third dinner, eating the first layer of pies, working my way to the second tertiary pies. Having my heart stomped on that last Bill's game, confidence is kind of at an all-time low. I hate the short week. I hate that they're traveling. I hate that it feels like they're playing for their season already, which is a weird thing to say. Luckily, it's also the two-year anniversary of Buffalo going down to Dallas and choking the Cowboys to death on Thanksgiving, and they kept showing that grizzled old fuck Jerry Jones looking like he wanted to jump out of the owner's box and end it all,

which is a Thanksgiving memory that'll live in my heart forever. So not feeling that confident this Thanksgiving, but I wasn't feeling confident that year either. So maybe my expectations like my cholesterol will be on the ride. come Thursday night. Simon, do we play the Saints plus five and a half here? This was not on a holiday. We would. If this was Sunday, we would.

But I told you on Thanksgiving, Chad, we bet with the public in most instances. And that's the one of the times we do it right here. Give me the bills. Love this all the way up to six. Classic, this number would be way higher if the bills had done what people thought they were going to do against the Colts.

But they didn't. And I think everyone's feeling the same way Matt Mitchell's feeling right now. This team does not look good. They're on a short week. They have not done well against good defense. And the Saints are a good defense. But this is what you want when you want to bet this Bill's team indoors.

That's when they kill these teams. You got digs on turf. You got Sanders on turf. All their receivers perform better on turf. That's just facts. They're a very, very fast team. Literally the bills have built a perfect indoor team when they play all their games outdoors. It's bizarre.

But that's what they've built. It's a very, very fast team. I already read a bunch of reports about the coaches talking. about they're going to get Josh Allen on the move. But like they think the biggest issue this year is he's been too much standing in the pocket trying to pass instead of taking what the defense is given on which he can take it 10 yards, he should be taking those 10 yards. I think we see a big adjustment here.

We saw last week with Hertz against the Saints team. They could not handle a running quarterback. I feel like we're seeing the exact same thing here with Josh Allen this week. So exactly what Matt Mitchell was saying, a short week is the fear with everyone. I like it. It's just a quick turnaround. Get that bad taste out of your mouth. go on the road with the team.

It's really, that's what you kind of want. You want them all together like they are for the holiday. A great team building moment for this Bills team. So this to me is a turning point in their season. If they don't win this, it really might be New England's defense to win this division to win this year. So this is a huge game for this Bill's team. What I'm not buying from you is the whole Thanksgiving favorites thing.

It's too small of a sample size and there's no logic. Do you know what I mean? I can't. Public favorites, getting 57% of the bets are better, 24 and 7 against the spread. On Thanksgiving. Yeah, shut up, nerd. Yeah, well, then fuck you because you're telling me that I should take the bears and the lions are all the bears their favorite. Wow, this guy keeps digging the hole deeper. Keep going. What else you got?

Well, by the way, it's Thanksgiving. We all love each other. And like, you have to make it so angry. when when I challenge you it's just hilarious you think that's me being angry you've never seen me angry chad this is you're not you're not from new jersey you're not simon you're not simon the hock you're just a human being what was that stat again it's really good public favorites i'll tweet all this stuff out because i'm stealing it all from brandon brandon anderson by the way 57% of the bets getting 50% of the bets from the public they're 24 and 7 a t s on thanksgiving So 77% That's since 2003.

2005, sorry. 2005. That's pretty good. Yeah, I mean, that's what I mean. Like I've always, I've noticed this over the years where, you know, I love taking public like home dogs.

It's my favorite thing to do. It just did not work out for you a couple years ago. I've kind of adjusted to it where I kind of beef up these lines a little bit for these favorites just because that's how the public's going to better regardless. And it's worked out for me. So, you know, I do think this line will get up higher with the bills. So if you get the four right now,

I would definitely take that number. Well, look, we're taking the trend with the bills. We're ignoring the trend with the Raiders. And we're doing whatever we want with the Bears line. So we're really only following the trend for one game. Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Falcons, basically this is a pick. Everything is coming in on the Falcons right now.

I've been banned. I mean, the funnest was I got so many messages. We're like, please just don't even talk about the Jaguars anymore. I can't stand it anymore. It was terrible. So we'll pass, but of course, I'm going to be on a home dog. I'll be on the Jaguars. This is a corner TV game, if there ever was one.

Yeah, this is like one of those I might, the tops I'll put on as a grant. It's a low back game. Except the other game. New York Jets at Houston, Texans. The Jets are now three point underdogs. And this is a pros Joe's game. The bets are coming in on the Jets. The money is coming in on the Texas.

I'm shocked. the bets are coming in on the Jets. I guess maybe people are thinking fade Houston after that win with Tennessee, but we talked all the time why we loved Houston. We love Taylor. I mean. And he was great. Yeah,

I'm so mad at myself for not betting his rushing touchdowns. He ran for two of them last week. He's just a difference maker. And that's why I tried to explain to my boss, Bob. It's like they really hated that bet because they just don't trust him as a quarterback. And I kept saying he's way better than people give him credit for. Like he just doesn't make the stupid plays. And I get he didn't that Miami game.

We talked. That was just rust. He just looked rust and sloppy in that game, his first game back from the injury. So nothing's changed here. I love this number. I'm so happy. It's at two and a half. That's great.

The public will keep betting the Jets and hopefully it's Flacco. I would bet it now, but I'd also wait to bet on decent amount. I don't have to make sure you know who the quarterback is because I do think they can make it a close game with these other quarterbacks besides Flacco. But just looking on paper, this number should be four. I have to take Houston in this matchup. When Bob says to you,

we're not doing this big bet that you want to do. Are you like, do you say to him as your boss, fuck you, nerd? No, because he's not my friend. That's sweet. He called me your friend. I mouth off to him in the sense that I just simply text back mistake when he told me not to play them. So that's how you kind of drive the nail in there.

All I know is that you just called me your friend. Best friend, buddy. Best friend forever. Yeah, it's all. Love. Yeah, true love. Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots. Wow.

Wow. Wow. The Titans are, it looks like six and a half point underdogs on the road. What happened here? That's insane. We've been burned by the, like, we can't, we can't fade the Patriots until a further date. This, they're on a roll. They're just a covering machine.

I think I've gone against them. Three out of four of the weeks, they've just been covering. So I have to throw the numbers out. Of course, the numbers, this is a great number to take the Titans. I have to throw it out here. You really can't go against this Patriot team, Belichick. Not only does he have the defense playing at a crazy high level, the offensive scheme right now is just perfect matchup for this Tennessee team.

They're going to be able to run it against them. The Tennessee Titans are terrible against play action. That's what New England loves to do with Mack Jones. So, yeah, I would love to take Tennessee on the road here, but it's just not when the dog's going to be taking this week. I'll probably end up on the Patriots. Wow. Zer.

Mack Jones, a witch nipple quarterback. That's all there is to it. Do you think his brother is going to say to him on Thanksgiving, like we instructed him to, hey, Mac, what's up, Mac, Nipple? Yeah, he's got to.

I feel like that's a little bit of a trap here. I know what you're saying. Oh, I hate it. I want to take Titans so bad, but I've had to up the numbers on New England. I said it last week. If they won that game against Atlanta, I would move them way up in my power ratings

to be like a top two, top three team in the AFC. And that's what they are. Like, they dominated both sides of the ball. Of course, Mac looked like a rookie. You threw a pick. And like, that's what we were expecting. But the rest of the team's so complete, it didn't even matter.

They're just a dominant team right now. Every fiber of my being is saying, take the Titans here. That's fair. I mean, again, if it comes Sunday, we'll see. But as we sit here on Tuesday, I would recommend taking you anyone. The wise guy play is.

the Titans. The wise guy number is the Titans. It's at a dead number though. It's a five and a half or five. Like if it got the six and a half, I'd agree with you. But there just isn't any really real value in a five and a half number. I'm seeing six and a half. I do see a six and a half out there. Like it's like if I hit six and a half, I would have to pull the trigger on that, but I don't feel good about it. I just want it. I just want it known that I'm convincing you. You are because I have this number three and a half. I'm like, I want to take the Titans. It's inflated to the max. But I just cannot do it. Wow.

No courage. Maybe for Thanksgiving you should ask for courage. Simon Hunter, professional coward. The Eagles, your Eagles, looked strong against the Saints. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants. Every time the Saints started to get closer in that game, the Eagles answered against a Giants team just fired Jason Garrett that is just coming across the wire. really looked pathetic on offense.

Only scored last night a touchdown when they had an intercept. They were set up inside the five-yard line. The line is Giants plus four. Oh, God. I mean, I love the Giants. It's crazy. Divisional game, you have to take it, though. This is such a pro number.

Same reason we took the Vikings last week. Unfortunately, we didn't get the Vikings out of three, which would have been great because at the end of that game, we're like, all right, this is either team's going to win this game by a field goal. but here you're getting a gift for the Giants. It's up to four now. It's going to be three and a half of a lot of books. You bet this number.

You got to bet this number every time. The Eagles are good. They're not that good. They were, I think, just two weeks ago, this line was minus three giants. Now it's flipped seven points. So take the value they're giving you on these sports books. And it is a 100% pros Joe's game. Majority of the money on the Giants, majority of the bets on the Eagles.

Let's be our foxhole. Foxhole. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Not a lot of women people are going to get in there. There's going to be a lot of bullets flying over top of us here. This is one of the uglier bets we're making this week. Listen, you don't win. You don't become the best betters in the country over a two-week period by making the popular decision.

That's true. Being a leader, being in the foxhole means doing what's right, not doing what's popular. And we're not going to get anyone. We've been on a role here, these double-digit dogs. money lines. No double-digit dogs this week, all under 10 points. So sadly, it's going to end our streak. But hey, it was a great two-week run. We still have, as Simon says, and we still got to do scoge roulette, don't forget. Our big balls was the bears. Our foxhole, I mean, was the Giants. And now a quick word from our friends at Fandwell. This Thanksgiving Fandual

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Let's get back to the show. Meanwhile, Tempe Buccaneers, fresh off a win, Indianapolis. Colts, fresh off of a win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts. Feels like a Colts number to me. Two and a half, three points. Number one, Colts fan. It's easy.

Of course, I bet this. I think people are tweeting on me before they even put the line up. They're like, are you going to know the Colts again against the bucks? Of course. I mean, that team against the bill is exactly what I envisioned coming to this season, what I would see from this Colts team. Just an incredibly dominant offensive line with the best running back in football. Carson Wentz just not screwing.

him over. Like, again, you saw in that game when it was third and seven, third and eight, he was making those plays. And that's what you want from Carson. Like, that's what makes him different than guys like Sam Darnold, who cannot make that play consistently. That's what I love about Carson. He's healthy right now. That O'Lions healthy. The Bucks team didn't look that healthy, honestly, against that Giants team. They had a bunch of little things happening in that game where you're just like, it's still not right. Now, it's getting there. Like, they had gronk back. They were running the ball against that Giants team. But without all those turnover,

from, I mean, Daniel Jones, like, that was just a complete meltdown game from them. They were going to be in that game that whole time, the Giants. It felt like they were really going to be in that game. So I, we've talked about it all season. We've just been betting against Brady on the road. It's yet to fail us. It's literally, it's worked out every time we've done it. I mean, the Saints, no one thinks they're a good team.

We bet them on the number and on the money line. They beat them outright. Washington football team, people don't think they're a good team. They beat them out right. people do think the Colts are a good team. So how can we now take this number with this Colts team plus three? That's just, it could be a little bit of a sharp trap,

but I'm happy to walk into it. I think we're getting a great number here with this. Sharp crap. We've got a sharp crap, everybody. We're getting some games here that we like. We really are. I think come Sunday, we're already looking at the Texans. We're looking at the Giants.

We're looking at the Colts. It's going to be ugly. My favorite bet's coming up. Oh, is it going to be Simon says? Is it the... Oh, it is. So listen, I'm feeling really good about myself. Here's why.

Discipline and instinct. The Steelers are visiting the Bengals. The Steelers are four and a half point dogs on the road. Two nights ago, it was Sunday night. The Steelers were six point dogs to the Chargers. Right before the game, I fired away on the Steelers of Plus Six. Went to bed. Chaos ensued.

They won. Obviously, it was the right side. They lost, but they covered obviously the right side. Last night, last night, I was very tempted to bet the over, didn't do it. Very tempted to bet the Giants, didn't do it. Very tempted to bet Cadarius, Tony, over 41, passing, receiving yards. Didn't do it. He landed at 40.

So I wake up today, because I'm the best better in the world, you're not even a part of the conversation anymore, and I've expanded it beyond the country to the world. I feel like I'm in the right place. You're seeing the board well. That's what it is. I'm seeing the board. I'm seeing the whole board. And I look at this and I see Steelers plus four and a half.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals. Simon says. Actually, I actually like the Bengals, but. Oh, no. Yeah. I know. But I'm going to end up on the Steelers. I just thought it was a fishy line.

I didn't get why it was so high up. I made this line three. So my instincts right away were to pound the Steelers. I don't get why the books hung this so high. This is like the Colts game where they just hung a bad number and you were dead wrong. Like the Pittsburgh is by far the play here. I'm waiting because I didn't really get the number. It kind of feels like the Seahawks last week.

Like I didn't understand why the Seahawks were plus two. I stayed away from that one. That game stunk of a trap. That's what I feel about this game here. It feels too easy. Pittsburgh's defense, they would dominate this Bangal's offense in my opinion. Like that, if they had T.J. Wapack back, that front seven against this really bad bangos offensive line.

that's that's a great matchup for this pittsburgh team but it's it's just a fishy line so we'll talk later in the week about this one i'm seeing it down to three and a half at some books so obviously the pros have come in on this number but it just seems off to me i don't get why the sign didn't open at three fishy well what do you have a power rated at right now i had it at three so like that's what i assume the books would just open at that and just let the public bet it up or down let them decide instead they opened it heavy pittsburgh money is come flying in on Pittsburgh. I bet the ticket count's coming on Pittsburgh just because that's my first instinct. As soon as I saw that number, I thought, wow, that's, that's way too high. So that's one of those,

I bet it. I just didn't, I'm not going to, you know, I might have put two grain on it right now. I might bet more later in the week, but right now I'm just holding off because I don't really trust this number. Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins. The Panthers are one and a half point favorites. Don't say anything yet. I'm going to tell you right now, how are we not betting the dolphins here. Really? Wow, I'm shocked. I'm going to come on the Panthers. I like the Panthers here. Coming off a loss playing on Miami team that's won two in a row now. They're feeling good. That was, I mean, I watched that game because I for some reason bet a bunch of money on Miami. I just that I hate Joe Flacco that much, I guess. Man, Miami's got issues. Their defense is getting

a little better, but against this Carolina team, I love that run, that running style against a defense that, you know, they give up the run, Miami. That's one of the things are not good again. So it's, I'm leaning towards Carolina, but me and you are split on this. We'll probably just stay away from it. It's not one of my favorite five anyway. But to me, it's just I would like to fade this Miami team after a couple big wins. Because, again, I just, it's hard for me to really believe in this Miami team. Tua just hasn't put it together enough games consistently where I'm like, okay, I really

believe in what I've seen in this guy. He had a couple really bad turnover against that Jets team. So to me, this is a, I would either take Carolina or just stay away. Interesting. I looked at this and thought, and I saw two his numbers and I saw a little bit of the game. And I felt like he's starting to make better throws. It's not just a dink and duck kind of thing. He's throwing for, he's completing a high percentage of his passes.

And this defense is pretty good. And like, Cam was terrible, like completely ineffective. So it just felt like I'm getting the home team as a underdog here. You're right. And the trends favor of what you're saying, too. Like Flores has been really good against the spread at home. as a home dog. But just like last night with Tampa, sometimes you got to zig and zag against these trends. And I saw all the stats, Tom Brady, 0 and 5 against the Giants, Tom Brady, oh and 7 and

prime time. Eventually, it always comes back around. So this is one of these where I do think they, they drop one here against a Carolina team that really needs this one. All right. A classic Don Cricky, Todd Christensen, late afternoon, NBC game. Shout out to the children of the 80s who know exactly what I'm talking about. Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos. Chargers, two and a half point favorites. Simon says, bet the Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos.

When Simon says do it. When Simon says do it, we do. Tell me why. You know why. We love Teddy. Teddy is a dog. Teddy is, what was it? 19 and three against the spread as a dog in his last 22,

something crazy like that. Just any time Ted's, Teddy's dog, we bet it. even better here, we're getting great matchups. You have a Denver team that wants to run the ball. They have a two-headed monster against a Chargers team that cannot stop the run. They're just so bad against the run. Their secondary still has a couple of issues where, you know, say what you want about Teddy, he can't get the ball downfield.

They have a lot of speedy weapons on that team. He can get it really, really, really out of his hands fast, where like Bosa, all this pressure coming from the Chargers shouldn't matter. So a divisional game, home dog in Denver. love it. Love the plus three. And the reason I'm saying, Simon says, I think pros are going to bet this down. I can see this game closing as a pick. This is going to be on the Sharper bet games for professionals this week. So I love Denver in this position. I'm totally with you. A lot of times you look at the board and you try to think about what the sharp games are going to be. And for whatever reason, like the Broncos are never one of those teams that pops up. You know, if you were looking at this board, I think people would be more likely to say that the cold. are going to be sharp or the giants are potentially going to be sharp or even the Steelers are going to be sharp. But I agree with you.

Like everyone's going to look at this and look at the Broncos and think this is the side. Yeah. Especially it jumped out too where it was like, I feel like it was Sunday in there. Maybe it was like Monday morning at 2 a.m. Just like multiple different people reaching out to me. You already hit this Broncos line. And it's just like, okay, that's that's the play this week. So that was one of those where I bet it.

hasn't really moved much, which has made me a little nervous because I thought for sure they had bump it down. Because again, we talk all the time. The books, they like traps all the time. And this looks like one of those games that they're going to get a lot of money coming in on the Chargers and they're going to keep it at that three or maybe even drop it out two and a half. Those are kind of the signals you're looking for where it's like, okay, we're death on

the right side here with this Chargers team. Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers. This seems to me to be a perfect. line game with the Niners. They are right now three point favorites. See no edge here in either direction. Yeah. I want to take the Vikings, but I feel like I feel like I'm playing with fire here.

I've just backed them so many weeks in a row now. It's probably time to get off the train. Like this is their peak highest level of. And the value is, it's not terrible value though. Like looking at a plus three, it's, that's a good, that's number you want. You rather have the plus three than the minus three. but I'm with you. It's just a good lie.

That's what I made it. I think I made it two and a half or maybe I did make it too. But I just, there's not enough of a, yeah, like you just said, these teams are pretty equal. The line, there's not that much value on taking the three. So I would probably pass on this one. If it got to three and a half,

I would take the Vikings a three and a half. Would like that. Yeah, that'd be really nice. But at three, it doesn't feel like there's that much value. This is why we're missing the Thursday pot this week, why it's a bummer. This is a game that would move.

and it's a game we would talk about. Especially this week, all these short lines, like all these threes. I can't remember a week, especially this season, we've seen so many home dogs at three or so many home favorites at minus three. It's a very low, low number week. Yeah, it's strange. It's really strange. Speaking of low, low number week.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers. Let's say the Rams are one point dogs. let's say that your BFF, Shaddy, kind of likes the Rams here. Do you really? I don't. I still, something's just wrong there. Like Stafford hasn't played well in two weeks.

I would love for this to be a get right spot for him. But he just, in his career, even on the lines, he never played well at Lambo. There's just something about an indoor quarterback going outside. I already have question marks with Matthew Stafford. The only thing going on your favorite right now is to me is this COVID. toe or whatever Aaron Rogers dealing with, which again, that's a real thing. People supposedly have gotten this COVID toe.

And it's like turf toe, but way worse. And he's really dealing with it. But last week, he looked pretty damn good. So I'll wait and see what the injury report is for this game. We'll see if Aaron Jones is back. We'll see if Alexander's back for the secondary with Green Bay. But yeah, usually a West Coast team going outdoors up to Frozen Lambo. If this is under three, every time I'll take Green Bay.

So I'll wait and see what this number is. I don't think it's going to get up to that point. So no matter what, I think you're going to be able to get good value on the Screen Bay team. What hell is COVID-toe? Apparently it's a real thing. That's what Aaron Rogers apparently has is COVID-toe. But you know what?

I can be fooled by internet once again, but I heard it on Howard Stern, so I trust it. Oh, come on. Have I told you that, you know, that I've written seven books. Four of them are bestsellers. Chad Millman wrote a book. And one of those bestsellers,

is they call me Baba Bowie, which I co-authored with Gary Delabate. I was the ghost writer for Gary Delabate's autobiography. He's the only guy on that show I think I hate. I hate Gary. Dude, you can't hate Gary. I do. He's such a tool. No.

Like, you know, you think Aaron Rogers is a tool. I think that guy, Gary, is a giant tool. He is, you spend five minutes with the guy. He is the nicest, most sensitive. sincere, most authentic, like, just in 35 years of working on the Howard Stern show, he is as sort of open to possibility and excited about making connections as he was when he was 24 years old and had a passion for radio and like listening to Stern while he was a producer at NBC. Like, there's nothing, his wife is lovely.

like he's just a wonderful guy. There's nothing not to like about him. I bet he is. I'm just like I listen to Stern for assholes. Like I used to love Artie back in the day. Beetle juice. Like I know all that stuff's terrible nowadays. Those are my glory days.

Like the late 90s, early 2000s. That's why I just love Stern. So it's nothing against him. I just, I like assholes. That's why I listen to that show. Interesting. Says so much about you. Let's talk about Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are. What does it look like? Three and a half point favorites right now? Yeah, sounds about right. Just let the record show. My favorite show is always sunny. Those are the biggest asses in the world, Chad.

So people know this. They know that show. I love that show. They know I love assholes. By the way, the always sunny boys right now, talk about podcasts. The Always Sunny Boys released a podcast for the first time,

like three weeks ago. It is now beating Joe Rogan as the most downloaded podcast on Spotify. Have you listened to it yet? No, I haven't listened to it. It's amazing. Like the first episode, Charlie Day has complained about eating too much cheese and feeling sick. Like, it's just hilarious. And he's not even doing a character.

That's who he is. It's so good. It's such a good show. And let's get a pep talk for Frank Reynolds. This is pathetic. This is awful. We've all been humiliated. Our asses are destroyed.

Yeah. Look, if life pushes you down, you got to push back. If you're dealt a bunch of lemons, you got to take it. Take those lemons and stuff them down somebody's throat until they see yellow. You got to do the only thing that's left to do. Yeah. What is it? Well, there's the lemon stuff.

Right. And then I lost my trade of thought. Let's go back to the bar. I have no idea what to make of this Brown's Ravens matchup. Like my first thing I want to do is take the Browns at plus four because both these teams have major injuries. We don't know what's going on with Lamar. like in the history of quarterbacks is a quarterback ever gotten sick more often than Lamar like I can remember him missing other games being sick not COVID related like he just gets sick so no clue

like if he really had the flu and he's been that bad that he was out all week and he missed the game this week until I see him on the practice field I'm not putting a dime onto this raven's team but if it comes Sunday and he's playing and this number is still at four I will take the ravens Baker, he just does not look right. Like he had, he looked all right to start that game. And he had one hit from that Detroit line defense. The rest of the game, he was just off. Could not complete throw.

So I think Colin Coward talked about it. He's cost himself a lot of money, Baker, and I agree with him. He's, he's cost himself a lot of money trying to play through this injury the last couple weeks. So I'm off of it. I'll stay away from this game until I know more of, uh, would you say that Lamar Jackson because of his illnesses is the Charlie Day of NFL quarterbacks? No.

Can't put him that low. I often get texts from people sending me a picture of Glenn Howardton saying that we look alike. I actually see it a little bit. Yeah. Like when you're closed mouth like that, you actually do look like them. Yeah. All right. All right.

Monday night football. Kind of a stinker of a game. Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team. Basically even maybe the Seahawks are one-point favorites. Tell me, I don't have a strong opinion here. Yeah, it's the same thing. Like, again, Chad must get all the DMs. I remember Chad.

People reached out to be saying, how did Chad bet against his best friend, Colt McCoy? how could he take the Seahawks? And I told them sometimes Chad gets caught up in the moment. He gets excited. He sees a number and he just takes it. Cole McCoy is your guy and you went against him. I can't believe that. But I don't know what they make of the Seahawks.

We talked about it last week. I just don't trust Russ. I've had plenty of guys reach out to me that talk to people inside the Seahawks organization. He's missing guys' guys' nonstop in practice. We saw it again in the game. He just has this wobbly ball right now and it's nosed diving on him. He keeps putting it into the ground a guy's feet. Russ does not do that.

Russ does not ever kind of do those kind of throws. He's one of the most accurate passers in football. So he's not right. He just isn't. So I'll take Washington. I hate backing them. They're off back to back. Really big wins.

Like that went against Tampa was huge. Now they went again against Carolina. Coming home, I would love to be able to fade this Washington team and take a Seahawks team that's lost, what is it, three straight? I can't do it, though. I just can't trust Russ right now to pick up first down. So I'm going to go with.

Heineke, I'll back this Washington team, but this won't be one of our five. I love watching this Washington team. They're so fun. Taylor Heineke is just great to watch. He's so... He's figured it out. Yeah. There was a few weeks ago, there was a story about Taylor Heineke and having a conversation

with the coaches and saying that he felt tight, that he wasn't playing his game, that he wasn't playing loose. and since then he's just been a different quarterback. No, me and him go to the same shrink. We both worked it out, Chad. We're letting it fly him out, you know? I fucking love that. Huge fan of mental health.

There we go. All right. So let's narrow this down here. We definitely come Sunday. We're going to talk about the Broncos. We're going to talk about the Texans at minus two and a half. We're going to talk about the Giants at plus four. maybe we'll kick that one out.

We're going to talk to Colts a plus two and a half. It's four, it's a few. We might talk about the Steelers. We might talk about the Washington football team, even though I say you don't want to. We'll see what happens with the Packers. Got a lot of options here. Hey, you ready for Scooch Roulette?

We're the best betters in the world right now. So it feels to me like no matter what we do, we're probably going to go four in one or five and now. Sounds about right. I don't believe in jinxes. I don't believe in not being able to say stuff out loud. What I believe in is that if you want something, you have to say it out loud. You got to envision it.

You got to see it before you. Or what is it? Chad, I forgot the same. You got to see it to believe it. Time to take down the hops. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Let's play Scooch Roulette. All right.

So then I get to keep winning. I get to go first again because it all rolls over and I'm the best better in the world. And for that reason alone. give me the Denver Broncos. Fuck, I knew you were going to do that. Plus two and a half against the charges. Fuck, I love that. Oh, the Denver Broncos.

All right, I'll go Giants against my Eagles. This is a great spot for them. Getting three and a half or four. So that's a good number to take with this Giants team. All right. Teddy covers. Should we do? I got the Broncos plus, you got the,

got the Broncos two and a half. You got the Giants plus four. We'll do a money line around Robin just because people love it. It's been cash in form. Yep. Now, this is going to be as good as it was the last couple weeks, obviously, because we got a bunch of short home dogs. So let's start off with a very tasty Giants at home.

Then we'll go with the Colts at home. Go with the Broncos at home. I'll take Minnesota on the road because we just said that seems like a coin flip kind of game. Like I really want to put Pittsburgh in there. Should we just do that? Yeah.

All right. That's a good five. Yep. All right. We kind of nailed it. It's the Tuesday show. We're giving a lot of, we're giving people a lot to wait for it.

Chew on over the Thanksgiving holiday. I'm going to stab your ass with this fool. Do you hear me? I want to wish everybody a great Thanksgiving. We're thankful for our listeners, both old and new. We're thankful for the comments. We're thankful for the feedback.

And Simon, the last thing we got to talk about, we did have one comment with me, you and Matt DeBade the other day. Someone DMed me and said, I sound like an idiot when I say, love you at the end of the podcast, and I'm too old for that now, and I shouldn't say it anymore.

And I kind of agreed that it, I've been feeling weird saying it the past couple weeks. I don't know why. And then you and Matt Mitchell came in strong that it absolutely has to remain as the tagline. Yeah. I feel like that's been your tagline for forever. I mean, how long did you start this podcast exactly? We relaunched the favorites September of 2018.

Like, I'm talking when did you start way before that? Oh, well, I launched behind the bets at ESPN in like 2010. I might have stumbled upon your show maybe then or 2011. And even then, you said, love you. I know exactly when I said it. I started saying it in 2018 with the favorites because Matt Ford, who was a producer on the show, a producer with the company called Blue Duck that we do a lot of work with, they're a fantastic production company.

He was working on the show. He ended a show one time as a guest host, and he said, love you. I just thought it was cute. And so I picked it up. So it's a thing you stole a tagline. Damn it. Matt Mitchell. felt like a guy emails you and goes, hey, Chad, it'll be fun if you forgot where you came from.

And you said, ah, good point. That's a good point. I should do that. So I didn't, I didn't care for that attitude. Well, the love you thing, that might be the only time someone in the whole day will hear someone say to them, love you. So I feel like that's why you should leave it in. You know, it's nice to hear every once in a while. You know what?

We did it. We debated it. We're going to stick with it. If people have something better, then they can, they can send it in. Our DMs are open. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast. I am Chad Millman. He is Simon Hunter. We are thankful for all of you. Download the podcast at Apple Podcasts at Spotify. Make us number one on Spotify. We can catch the always sunny guys. I love those guys. Until next week. Love you. Your Valentine's Day shouldn't start with a Hail Mary. We've got you covered on the big day when you order flowers and gifts from Proflowers early this year. Head on over to Proflowers.com to get 15% off our entire collection of blooms, gifts and more for you.

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