The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 16 Best Bets

Episode Date: December 25, 2021

The weather outside is frightful, but the holiday action is so delightful! Chad Millman and professional sports bettor Simon Hunter of the Action Network come together in the season's spirit of giving to provide their favorite picks for NFL Week 16, including a few spots Simon's professional gambling buddies have called him about. We've got more fun with Mike Tomlin, the makings of a Kliff Kingsbury Khristmas Kover, and even some love for the unpredictable Buffalo Bills. So cozy up by the fire with a hot mug of parlay tickets, and enjoy another festive episode! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes,

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For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians,

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1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman. She content officer of the Action Network. It is Thursday. It is time for me and my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bed or Simon Hunter, to get into it, to lock it down. We'll go through sharp calls.

We'll go through the money line parlay. We'll go through our big balls, bed of the week. we will nail down our five plays that we like the most or at least get pretty close. Reminder, it only took us four months to do it, but you can follow our five favorite plays. In the Action Network app, download it for free. Follow. Go to the follow tab on the bottom of the navigation. The faves five.

The faves five. Follow that. Starting this Sunday, it's where we will put our picks in. we usually do it in the 1130 to 12 range. Simon Hunter. Oh, buddy. Merry Christmas. Happy holidays, all the above.

If you're not going to see the video for this, Simon is wearing a very festive Philadelphia Eagles branded Santa hat. I was going to ask you, do you feel in the mood this year? It's different. I feel like because of climate change, we don't get any snow anymore. But I don't know. With the lights around, I still feel a little bit in the mood, but it's just different when no snow.

It definitely hits a little different. Without the snow, without the gray skies, without sort of the feeling of hunkering down. And to be honest, personally, COVID is wreaking havoc with all the plans that our family had for the holidays and what we were going to do. And between that and my kid breaking his leg and having a hard time traveling. It's going to be weird. I mean, I might not be able to see my parents either because of COVID stuff. So it's definitely going to be a weird holiday. But I can get boosted.

Get boosted. Do what we can. Take horse medicine. do whatever you got to do. Don't take horse medicine. Don't listen to Simon. One thing that you should listen to Simon about, we've said this all season long,

and we're going to get into everything, but there is something very betting specific that is happening in the sports universe that I think we should talk about. I think the NFL has a real issue on its hand, and we've said this all year. These games, much of the year, have been unwatchable

because the officiating has been so inconsistent between the holding calls, the quarterback, the roughing the passer calls, the DPI calls, the personal fouls, for years, it didn't matter from a gambling perspective. The NFL didn't have to care about it because they did not embrace gambling. They actually vehemently opposed it. So if gamblers were complaining about the inconsistency of the calls and the impact it was having on the games, the NFL could basically say, fuck you.

Now, the NFL is in bed with gambling. There is no missingness. There is no hiding behind the curtain. The NFL 100% embraces gambling. They need more transparency in officiating. They need better officiating. They need more consistent officiating. The players know it.

Robert Quinn, the other night, talking about the Bears in that game against the Vikings, the inconsistency with some of the calls. We saw it again in the Seahawks Rams game that had a very real impact on the point spread for betters. I think this is a very serious issue for the NFL. it is going to become more of an issue as more states legalized betting. They've got to figure something out when it comes to officiating and how it's impacting these games from a betting point of view. A lot of people complain, they said it was taking too long,

them reviewing the plays, and that's why they wanted to get rid of the past interference thing. To me, have such a BS excuse. If a game takes five minutes longer, don't you just want it to be a fair playing field where if that's what it takes to get these things right, that's what it takes. A lot of things now, they just get called right down from New York. Like they don't even stop TV.

they touch their ear, they get a phone call in. They said they only overturned 22% of the PI calls. That's 22% more than we have right now. That's the difference. It's like, would you really have zero or would you have 22%? Like, I was happy with whatever they were giving us. The fact that they would even review it to me was a good deal. They got rid of after one year because the media didn't like it and fans didn't like it.

But I do see a shift coming. Sports courts are going into these stadiums at this point. Teams are getting sponsored by different gambling groups. So, like, because again, the league's biggest issue is old owner. and these people are stubborn. They're getting their money. What do they care? That's the hardest part about this.

It's like if we're trying to update things and change things, they just don't care. If they're bottom line, they're still making money. Why do they care? But yeah, as like you just said, as a gambler, that Seahawks game was atrocious. It was one of those where I instantly regret how to be money on it on Tuesday night. So it's hard as a gambler,

but at the same time, like you just said, it's what we have to deal with. So I just have to keep dealing with it. The NFL is going to have to sort of come to Jesus on this because it's a real issue for fans. It's a real issue for gamblers. It's going to continue to be an issue. But yeah, everyone has to talk to the media after a football game except the refs.

And I get that. I get they try to protect them, keep them safe. I mean, they have to be accountable. Their biggest concern has always been integrity with the product, but they're worried about games being fixed. That's not the issue. The integrity in the product comes down to the fact when the people in the stripes are impacting the game in which,

ways that have real monetary impact on the fans. And if you're going to be in the betting business, you've got to have integrity across the board. It can't just be about not having games fixed. It's got to be about consistency with the officiating because the officials can control the game. You can't get into the red zone. You can't get a third down without thinking as a fan on this stop, you're going to get fucked. You just can't. Felt that way all year. Simon, before we get to the late before we nail it down. Let's get to some sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you do with? I kind of expected to speak with the pro calls. I did take some flack for saying that I rage bet on Saturday.

That wasn't very pro-like of me. I knew what I was doing. I wasn't going to control in the sense that I believed in my numbers and I was all in on the Colts in that matchup. I never roll money. over and that was just very Joe public of me to take all my winnings from a college game, just take all of it right away and put it on to the next game. So that, that's fair, that criticism. I'll take that heat. I had a lot of guys talking shit to me about that. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that. Get his ass. Hack your ass up, little dude. Give it to him. I wondered if that was going to be the case. You're not an emotional guy like that.

Never. But like, I was just so pissed from just because we nailed that Chargers game and then we got nothing from it. That's, that's just the, worst feeling. This week was pretty simple. A lot of the calls I got, pros were all over Tennessee. We've seen it now. We told you to take that three and a half. It's down to three now. That's not shocking. That's just a key number. If this number shifted to two, I might start thinking 49ers, but the fact that it's still a three, I just keep, I'll keep leaning towards this Tennessee team. It sucks you to get the three and a half, but you never know. Before kickoff, it could get back to that number. We saw it last few with the Chargers.

They dipped down to three. It kept going back and forth. That, that of all the games. I expected the call from and same with Arizona Cardinals. I knew that every pro would be aligned on this one. This is just a pro pro game. The pros will come in on Arizona. I know a couple of pros they got maybe, you know, if you're going to look at a headline, the most you can get down as 1,000.

Like any book, the most they're going to take is 1,000. A lot of guys got the plus 4 on the Colts last week. Now they're coming back on the other side, taking the one with the Arizona. That's a nice little middle spot. but the more I talk to the guys, the more it just seems like this is just a trap spot for this Colts team.

So, I mean, people could see my lack of confidence in that Arizona pick. Hearing so many other pros that are on Arizona, it makes me feel a little better. Arizona's down to minus one, by the way. I mean,

I've seen it down to half a point at certain books. We talked about, though, if it was a four or if it was three, that those are key numbers, we would have probably taken the Colts there. The fact that it's down to this point that what we think is a favorable line

towards this Arizona team. It's shifted too much. It's shocking. The pros like Cincinnati Bengals. I'm not letting them burn me again. They talked me off the Ravens against the Browns, and they shifted my position to that Browns team. And I felt like shit about it the whole time.

And of course, we didn't cover that number. They're at the same reasons. Once again, they're just keep saying the Ravens can't keep it up. They're going to come back to the meeting. They just can't covering these close games and coming back. Like, it's back-to-back weeks. They've had two straight weeks. They've come back from, what was it, 24 to 3 of the Browns were winning?

And then we had a 31-17 lead by the Green Bay and they covered. So we're probably fucking up by finally getting off fading this Ravens team. But it's up to three now. So I'm going to end up taking that number. I'll go against the professionals in that sense. And the last one was when we talked about, we love the dolphins. We knew the pros are going to love that one. That number I do think it's going to get back to three and a half by kickoff.

I could just see the public coming in New Orleans. They'll have Sean Payton back. People will be feeling good. again, they're coming off their biggest win here late in the season, shutting out, Tom Brady. Nothing's changed. Every probably talked to exact same thing we feel like. Miami played like shit against the Jets. The old Miami loses that game against the Jets last week.

All right, they throw that pick six to it throws that pick six. The Jets usually win that game. They won it. And that's, again, that's another reason I'm getting more confident in this Miami team. I'm hoping to get it back to three and a half. I do hope the public bets are back because that's such a key number to me to get that three and a half. So still love it at three with the dolphins, but we're hoping it gets back to three and a half. I did better at three.

The bets I've made so far, Buffalo plus two and a half, Carolina plus 10 and a half, Miami plus three. So gross. So gross. All of it is gross. Let's go through all of the games, though. You mentioned a couple of them. Yeah. Let's go through all the games that we were sort of narrowing down for our five and see if we can sort of come to consensus.

And then we will probably keep a little, some of them in our best. back pocket for Sunday morning. We will talk about them on our show. We'll talk about them after our show Convince Me, on at Action Network HQ at 11 a.m. Eastern. Reminder, because people have questions about this in our feedback segment. Feedback is a gift. Convince me is not a podcast. Convince me is a show that me, Simon Hunter, Sean Croner, Chris Raybon, a cavalcade of superstar experts, do on Sunday morning's 11 a.m. Eastern on Ad Action Network, KHQ, those three try to convince me the prop decide the total I should take. Check it out on Twitter or the Action Network YouTube page. Let's talk about the bills in the past. You talked about the Titans a little bit. That's not

going to be one of our best five. Bill's. People wanted me to make that our big balls bet, but we already did a big ball's bet last Thursday. We'll save our big balls bet for this weekend. Part of me feels like if you're not going to get the Titans at three and a half, I might just take him on the money line. I would still take the three. Again, I told you, I think one of the most underrated key numbers is two this season. It's true. We've just seen a shift with these extra points to everything like that, weird, funky numbers. I mean, hell, what was that? Our boy Stucky got a shout out from SVP last night about that Army beat. He hit Army minus three. Army wins by two. So it's become a very key number, especially in these big games.

Thank you so much. It's exciting finish in Fort Worth. Coach Monking, guys get their first win against the Power 5 opponent in four years. A couple of late scores there. Dramatic. Sorry, Stucky. Welcome to Sports Center from D.C. I'm Scott Van Pell. So let's talk about the bills. Plus two and a half of the Pats. Still, I bet it. Two and a half. Still like it. It's ugly. I think it's the right side. Yeah, it is interesting. I did see a touch three at a couple books that are very respected, which means that some pro money did come in on this New England team on paper. I get what people are seeing with Mac. He is very efficient in what he does. The way they run that offense through him is very

efficient. They know what their strengths are. They know what their weaknesses are. Teams have figured out what he does well. One of his biggest strengths are in the middle of the field. He's very good at reading where players are the way that they're moving and he can fit balls into pretty tough holes or he's really good at Lodden over the defense. They don't want to be a passing team, though, knowing them. And we've seen that. That's not something they want to be. And with this Buffalo Bill's team, this second time around, they're going to be able to take advantage of making Max, weaknesses really stand out. I remember, what was it, a week ago, two weeks ago, this line might have been minus one or minus three and a half for the bills before they played each other. They dropped that win.

I mean, the bill should have won 20 to 17, whatever it might have been. The bill should have won that game. Again, I felt New England was the right side. They were probably going to cover that one, but I do think the bills, they had all the opportunities to win that game. If they did win that game, what would this line be? It'd probably be minus one, minus two for the bills because they won the division last year. So when I put this in, the fact that my line made this a pick, and it kind of made it more slanted towards the bills, it's not surprising at all. Putting this out there just because they know what the public is going to do with this line. So I like the different advantages I already have towards the bills, but the biggest one

is just going to be it's time. Like this bill's team, they're a playoff team. They have all the hype. This is it. Like the bills, are you really going to turn back into what you guys had been for the last 20 years before Tom Brady dominated these teams like, this just just feels like such a big moment for this bill's team where the Patriots have always been the hurdle for them. This is their opportunity to overcome it. We're getting plus number. I mean, again, if you can get plus three, I don't know how you don't take the bills with this. So we could be walking to a trap. I've had a couple. Like I told you, I talked to a couple pros. They're on the Patriots. But to me, I have to trust that the more veteran team, the more experience with Josh Allen, it's going to be a factor in a late December game.

So I was wavering, making this one of our five, but the more like I've looked at it, it feels like we kind of have to. Like I've, it feels like the most balanced number this week. But like again, we're not getting crazy value. I want to get two points of value. But the fact that it's a two and a half three, that's, again, a key number. So it makes me want to take that Bill's team. I have no issues with this pick. Love it. Love the bills in this spot. Feel like this is not the kind of coaching mismatch that you would normally see with a Belichick team. The second time they're playing a team. They just beat. Sean McDermin has proven to be a really good coach. his staff has proven to be really thoughtful.

It's a fascinating matchup. There's a lot of things I'm going to try to tweak and update with my system this upcoming off season, but the biggest will definitely be at the variance of how many coaches go for it on fourth down. It's just something we can't really account for right now because it's just so, it's just, it's crazy. I mean, it's the worrying part about taking these high-risk teams. It feels to me like this should probably be our big balls better than we.

Really? I'm with you on it. I mean, it takes balls. I mean, I'm honestly scared about it. It takes fucking balls. Yeah. Because again, we're taking the bills on the road against Belichick. Yes.

This is where Belichick thrives. Exactly. And we've seen some of your buddies, some of the pros, taking the Patriots. No, it's split. It's literally 50-50. That's why I don't know if we're ever going to get back to the three because I think the pros will just keep buying it down. Well, I hope we don't because then I'll just feel bad that I got two and a half.

Not again, my friend. Let's, it's true. That's what I did with the Colts. And I didn't do it in a rage way. I did it in an emotional thought. thoughtful way. Let's talk about the Colts and the Cardinals. I love the Cardinals at one and a half. Why don't I love them at one? Yeah, nothing's changed. The funniest thing is hearing people complain about it saying, again, I'm with Matt Mitchell. We love to talk shit about Kingsbury.

Cliff Frikeen Kingsbury. I do think he's one more overrated coaches in football. I just have to go off not just instincts, but all the other pros that have come before me that have seen this exact game, this position every time. We know what happens here. The Colts have a letdown game. The Cardinals have a huge bounce back game. It's just, I feel like with football, you kind of see these rhythms. And if the Cardinals don't, if I'm a person as a future on the Cardinals, you can let it on fire. It's done because this is a, not a must win, but as close as you can get to it. Like they're losing hand on their division, which they had just been leading all season. they've been winning big games with backup quarterback and Cole McCoy,

and now they're dropping two of the last three. Everyone's panicking, honestly. People are saying that Kyler's hurt. I don't know about that. I think it's the same thing that we've seen with Dak. These guys come back from injury and the rhythm's just off. You lose that little bit of rhythm, that little bit of, like, you're in such a good rhythm with your receivers and everything else on the team

that you're just playing, not really thinking. Collar just looks like he's overthinking. Take away Hopkins as well. That's honestly why. I've seen this number kind of come down more so, not just the fact that Cardinals haven't played well. So to me, if you're thinking all these reasons why you should be taking a Colts, that should be the sirens going off about why you want to take the Cardinals because the bookmakers

know what they're doing here. They're giving you a great number. Again, you can get Colts right now plus 110 plus 120 in the money line. Everyone's doing it. That's one of the biggest money line bets this week. So to me, this is classic pros versus shows. everyone's going to have the Colts teased up everyone. So I hate it because, like we said,

we like to fade Arizona come November, December, but in this position, this is a pro number, no matter what, this is going to be one of our five. We are heading into the holiday season with courage and conviction. Definitely a lot of courage this week. Like the games we're talking about are just, they're gross. When you, like, you bet them, you're just, ah, it's not, it's uncomfortable because you're kind of go against your gut instinct of what you've watched,

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documentation. it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that. that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right

what you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little?

to Kim. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS. the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games.

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like you're not like you're not losing that much if you don't get it at four because five is a dead number. So the Falcons beat bad teams. The Lions have no secondary. We don't know what's going on with Jared Goff. They're coming off a huge win. The Falcons coming off a huge loss. The Falcons at home, this feels like the right spot to invest in the Falcons even at six. 100%. And again, we talked about that's why we liked so much of five and a half because six is a key number. You're not losing much taking the six. Again, worst case, you end up with a push, which I know people hate pushes. I always kind of pushes a win.

So I don't love that I'm not getting any updates on golf. Again, I'd feel more comfortable with him out just because we've seen it where not that he's got confidence, but he does. Like on these third downs, early in the year, if it was third and 10, it's over. The guy's either throwing a pick six or they're punching. We've seen the last couple of weeks. He's really gotten more comfortable with that team. He's got definitely more confidence in himself. So props to golf.

Coming in this year, I thought he was just going to be a one and done. He's not good. He can't be coached up. But he's really taking the identity of Campbell. He's really toughened up this year. So it'll be interesting what they do with a top pick. I mean, if I'm a fan of that team, I'm hoping they take a quarterback. But Campbell's a crazy dude.

I could see him believing in golf and giving him another year. They're not taking a quarterback. They're taking, they're taking, Aiden Hutchinson at number one. I love that kid, though. I can't even not going to go number two. There's not going to be a quarterback taken until middle of the first round. This is not a take a tight quarterback in the top 10 draft. Guarantee, we can save this, guarantee a quarterback will take on the top 10.

If a quarterback doesn't go to the top 10, I give my word to this show. I will retire. I will disappear from all of your lives. Let's not be dramatic. I'm just saying that was an awful take by you. I mean, I, it's not an awful take. A quarterback didn't go top 10.

E.J. Manuel. Yeah. And this could be that draft. I'm telling you right now, you're going to spend top 10 capital on Kenny Pickett. And like there's some good arms this year. Look,

we can agree to disagree. And come May, we'll know. We're going to have fun with the draft. I can tell we're going to have fun with it. One of us is wrong. We know who's wrong. But I watch no college.

You're like, I don't know shit. Again, I watch it at the corner of my eye on Saturday. So off the top of my head, I can think of like three different quarterbacks that are like good prospects. They're tall. They got a strong arm. I mean, that's what these GMs look for, Chad.

The Falcons, we're lining them up as a potential top five. It's about what the number we get and how much pain we're willing to intake because we know it's going to come Sunday. They're going to be down 10 points. I mean, you're going to texties during. God damn it. Every time we do this with the Falcons, but we have to. It's too easy not to fade this Detroit team after a win like they just had. And the fact that this Falcons team, just like you said, they beat up on bad teams.

They've done it all year. We are 100% putting the Panthers plus 10 and a half against the bucks. It's a foxhole bet. Everything is saying, take this. Good secondary against a quarterback who has struggled on the road, who is missing one of his most sure-handed receivers. There are questions about Mike Evans availability. Leonard Fournett will not be playing. Come on.

Are we professionals or not? Yeah, I know. No, we have to do it. Let's go. Cam Newton, one and 11, his last 12 starts against the spread for the Carolina Panthers. I mean, you might get Sam Darnold. It's all bad, people. Like, you're going to try to look up reasons to take Carolina.

Chad basically laid it out for you. If you go on the numbers, you're going on the paper, you're looking for trends. It's all going to point towards this buck's team. But for us, when we're looking at the numbers, we look at the data, we knew this number is inflated. We know it's going to keep getting inflated because the public's going to come in. So of all the games we're betting this week, I'm with you. this is probably my least favorite bet and it's probably the second most money I have on the game. And I hate it.

I hate that to keep betting it. But I keep doing it. They moved it all up to 12 one point. What am I supposed to do? I have to keep betting that if they moved it up there. I've seen it drop all the way down now to 10, 10 and a half a certain books. So we have to do it. You have to take this North Carolina.

It's like what Chad just said. We're not betting on Camden. We're betting on this defense. Listen, I didn't get it at 12. I got it at 10.5 because I'm not, you know, up 24 hours a day. I said you're not up at 3 a.m. Looking for the best line. And we know the books will move it, the half point that everybody wants when everybody except for Simon, his runner, and a hundred other professional letters are awake.

Pretty much. But again, 10 is a key number, though. You can get it at 10 or above 10. You take it. We saw that Washington football game against the Eagles, number was six and a half. What is it? One o'clock in the afternoon. By kickoff, it went all up to 10.

Game lands 10. I mean, the bookmakers, they know what they're doing. They know exactly what they're doing. A couple other games to scratch off here. You loved the Rams on Tuesday. They were your Simon says, bed of the week. Because of the number, it was at two and a half. Yep.

I kind of messed up on that one. It went up to three. It came right back down at two and a half. So I'm with the public. I said that before when I picked this. I'm going to be with the public. I knew the professionals were going to be on the Vikings. It was a Vikings at home as a dog.

Usually I would always be all over that spot. I just like the way the Rams match up with this team. The Vikings give up some of those explosive plays in the secondary. That's all the Rams do. That's the Rams offense. It's Cooper Cup down the field for 20 yards. And maybe every now and then, Van Jefferson or Odell can break a big one. That's just we've seen what they are now.

The Rams, that's the style they're running. To me, it matches up well this Vikings team. So it's rare, again, that I'm on public side. But when you get different little matchups like that, and you're not, like, again, if this was four and a half, Yeah, I would start looking at the Vikings, but to me, I made this number three and a half. I still think you're getting a point of value on this Rams team. I don't want to put it in the contest.

I get it. It's a little too, uh, Joe public for you. A little public. You just mentioned the bangles, the Bengals Ravens. I was a sharp call. Wise guys are loving the Bengals and you're kind of on the Ravens here. Yeah, fuck those guys. We'll keep chasing that dream.

Again, this is not going to be in our contest because the Ravens has just been burning us. never ending. So I'm just going to take the value. They play close games. This is a divisional matchup late in the year. I told people in early December, I take the dog, I take the under. 90% of these divisional games, that's just what I'm going to do. It's been working. I mean, we've already seen it since the calendar's turn. It's been a lot of unders divisionally. It's been a lot of dogs divisionally. So I'm waiting, especially if I'm going to put more in it. I kind of do want it to be Lamar. Again, I love what this backup has done. I watch the film. He literally was staring down. If it wasn't Andrews, it was Hollywood Brown,

and that was it. He would do two reads and then then he'd take off. So I love it. I love his athleticism, but I would just feel better with Lamar coming back. So I'm taking the three now and hoping that Lamar comes back to really give you the value. Because this line, if he does come back, what do you think it drops down to one? That's what I assume have dropped to. So I do think you're going to get value on it. Two games that we got to talk about. You loved on Tuesday. You fucking loved the chiefs minus nine and a half. I'm surprised that you have not gotten calls from the Wise God community and that they were not part of your sharp calls because the money has come all the way in on the Steelers.

It's now down to seven and a half. It's COVID shit. I mean, if there's no Tyree Kill, if there's no Travis Kelsey, yeah, I'm with you. I get it. Why would, like Pittsburgh? That's probably the right side. So like that's why COVID sucks. We literally did the show and then a minute after we finished that all this shit start

That's right. We slacked right after that. Yeah. So again, I love the chiefs. This was, I told people too. I love the under. This was like a smash spot. Now the unders come way down again, because the hill might be out. Kelsey might be out. What are the chiefs without them? There are going to be the two of the best, what, 10 weapons in all football offensively. So it sucks. We're trying to deal here with COVID. So the instincts in me say the bookmakers know what the fuck they're doing. The fact that didn't drop it below six and a half.

that should be all you need to know. If you're bad in Pittsburgh, oh, what a gift they're giving you, seven and a half and there's no hill, no Kelsey. Stinks. That's what this line stunk from the get go. Still like the chiefs, you're just getting a better number at this point.

Well, unfortunately, I had in Scooch Roulette, the chiefs minus nine and a half, and you had Miami plus three. Do I get some kind of relief in Scrolet with, now that we know, I'll still take the Chiefs, but can I get him at seven and a half instead of at nine and a half?

I'll allow it just because I'm, smacking you around this year, Chet. I thought you were going to say you'll allow it because we're like brothers. In the end, you only want... The season of giving? You only want what's best for me. That is true.

All right. I think we keep an eye on the Chiefs for the top five, but right now I think they're on the outside looking in. You see what I'm saying, though? You love that number now when you really think about it. Why wouldn't you take that seven and a half for the Pittsburgh? I... Trap.

Yeah, it just feels like a trap to me. That's why. And I feel like the Steelers team is really interesting. I don't think they're playing the type, right? For years, it's been Rob, Ron, Mike Tomlin. Football is our game. Our business is winning. I think this year's been a little different.

I think there have been spots where you think it's going to be Rob around Mike Tomlin and they get blown out like the Bengals. And then you think it's going to be spots where it should be Rob, right, around Mike Tomlin, like last week against Tennessee, where we loved him at plus one and a half. We loved him at Pick. I bet him on the money line. I bet him on the money line live at plus 200

when they were down 10-0. They got four turnovers and they won by six. I mean, that is the definition of R. Rob, Mike Tom. Exactly. You got to win it. That's the standard. But like, I think when in the Rai Rob Mike Tomlin spots,

Ben is just a shell of himself. And so offensively, they're nothing. Kansas City, even without Tyree Kill and Travis Kelsey, they still have Patrick Mahomes. They still have incredible. offensive weapons. To me, like, I don't think the Steelers can can keep up. Right. And also we talked about we love the Chiefs defense.

They play different at home. They've just shut down all these, again, not even that great of offense, but offense is just as good as Pittsburgh. So that's why we kind of lean towards the under. And, yeah, that's. Because I think the under is actually right here because the Steelers can rely on their running game and Najee Harris to run right through the Chiefs. We've seen them do that, but then they get really stingy.

And I don't think the Steelers have the weapons in the red zone to really score a lot of points. So that's where it's going to get interesting. 100%. I'm loving this game. This is going to be an interesting game. I'm waiting for the number to move down even more. Maybe it will. All right.

Miami plus three at New Orleans. You liked it above one and a half or two. It's still at three. This to me absolutely is going to be in our top five, even though we don't like Monday night games. We're going to have to do it. Yep. In another game, we talk about a prime time under here. Taking the dog, taking the under, no one's shock. Just two great defenses. Look at the day to people on Tua this year. He's been really good. I know he makes these dumb interceptions every now and then. That's just, I think something we have to live with, too, he's just, he's young. He makes the wrong reads. That picky through against the Jets, you saw it coming a mile away. I mean, those plays where the guy's running the curlback route and the defender never went up field. He's just standing right there because he knew he was running a curl route. That was. so bad against Jets, but it's rare you get an opportunity to fade a team that just won a primetime game. What day went by, nine?

Was it nine nothing? Nine nothing. That's rare. Like, they literally just won nine nothing on the road. Now they're coming home playing another prime time game. It's really rare you've got opportunity to fade those teams in this kind of position, especially a team that just isn't good. Like the Saints are so week to week. We've seen it all year.

They beat the bucks twice. They beat Green Bay. I mean, they beat elite teams. And then they've just faltered against other teams. like really not talented teams. Miami's defense has just been different. They've really turned a corner. People might say we're a little late to the party,

but to me, I still think we're getting value on this line. I would have preferred it at three and a half, which it was when we opened. That's always a key number, but take that number with Miami. The immortal words of Denny Green, they are who we thought they were. They are who we thought they were.

All right. So big balls is going to be the Pats plus two and a half. Our final five slash six, right now. Bills plus two and a half, cards minus one, falcons minus six, Panthers plus ten and a half, Miami plus three. We're investigating the chiefs and the Steelers will decide on Sunday if that's one of the ways we want to go. I think that rounds it out. It's going to be a pretty quick conversation on Sunday morning, I think, between you and me. I definitely think there's like one to be really keyed in on. There's a couple that are just on the edge where it's like they could make their way in like we did last week with Pittsburgh,

but not it's unlikely. Should we talk about our money? line parlay. My dog likes your dog, your dog likes my dog. I would throw Tennessee in, but a lot of people might not listen to this before then. So if you could throw their Tennessee in, great. If not, we'll give you another five anyway. Cleveland, this number is way too inflated. I would take the Cleveland money line.

Green Bay is notorious for a little stinker games like this, especially at end of the year. They tried to give it away last week to the Ravens. I this is this is it for the brown so to me this is as motivated as you can get if you're this brown team in Lambo I give them no chance of covering that number they're either gonna win this game outright they're getting blown the fuck out because that Cleveland team could have gave up for all we know after that that loss last week so to me I like that's the rare time where I like that money line but I'm not touching the spread panthers you just touched on it we like that panthers number it's too big everything seems like it's gonna kind of go wrong here a little bit for the buccaneers. Like they're kind of running out a little bit of gas. They got too many injuries. It's going to catch up to them. I think I just saw they put two of their linebackers on the COVID list as well. That's bad.

For a team that needs to really stop the run against a running team like Carolina, that's big for this Carolina team. So I've thrown a little on that money line. I don't think people were going to take it. I'm not going to give it out. But have a look at Houston just for a little bit because they might have Echler out with COVID. They might have both out on defense with COVID. There could be a couple studs out.

out for this team. The only reason I'm not giving it out is Cooks is out. Cooks right now is on the COVID list for this Houston team. If you look at their offense, he's 80% of their receptions on third down has been Cooks. I mean, that's insane to say, but that's how Dominique he's been for that Houston team. So I'll leave them out. Just quick recap, Panthers, Cleveland, Tennessee. And I mean, obviously, we love Miami. That's the Monday night game. Love their Ravens. And I probably would say, stop there. I mean, I want to give out Buffalo. If people are getting under the two, I would just take Buffalo the money. I wouldn't have bet the two. So for me, those would be my five favorite. The couple pros I talked to, they like really giving out Washington's money line. I think they've seen

the same thing with me against this Dallas team. Dallas just not has not looked right with DAC. They keep winning. They keep covering. It's a big deal. It's a revenge spot divisional matchup. I'm telling you, the pros are on Washington football team. Like, they're going to be on that money line. So if you don't like the Tennessee one, if there are a couple of ones you want to flip out, the value is worth it taking that Washington. That number should be seven. It's always up to 10. You're getting at least plus 150, maybe plus 175 of the value on that money line. So that's how it ended up with either Washington or Miami. At Washington game, we didn't talk much about, but come Sunday, it might be a game that pings back up. So we're in the home shut here for Survivor. I'd be shocked

if any of our fans are even left. Who would you do this week? I mean, a guy email on a it. He had Atlanta. He had Chargers. I feel like those are two of the best options he gave to me. Where would you go there? Would you? I would probably. Just go Chargers, right? Yeah, I was going to say chargers. You can't rely on the Falcons, right? They're not a good enough team that you can feel comfortable that on Sunday, it's a, it's an emotional thing, right? Like the Texans are a bad team who could probably cover. The Falcons playing a really good team that could make the playoffs. The Falcons are a bad team that is lucky to be in the playoff race. They're six and two against bad teams, 0 and six against good teams, but they are a team that could go either

way any single game. And if you didn't use the Seahawks against Houston, that's another one I would use this week. They're playing the Bears at home. Seahawks should win that game. But no, man, if you're left in Survivor, the options are very ugly. Like I had another person reach out to me. What do you like better, Jets or Jets? It's like, that's what they got left. They got a coin flip on that game. Like, yeah, fuck, man. Survivor is so tough, especially that is fucking brutal. Brutal. I think we covered it all. We covered a real issue that is the NFL is confronting. We got to a final five or six. We got a money line parlay. We got Survivor. We got a big balls. We got sharp calls. It's time to head into the holiday.

friend. You know, it's crazy too, because we've had so much football, I thought weird last night having an NFL game. I know, right? That was weird. It was like, oh, this is what it's like to have a night off. I'm going to tell you something. People will judge me for this. I decided, you know, I was going to take a night off. There was no football. I'm not going to be online. I'm going to relax. So I watched the show The Good Fight with Christine Varnski. It used to be the good wife. That's why I like how different we are. You did that and I broke a bunch of laws. I legally streamed the new Spider-Man movie and I was pretty good.

I just love how we're such different people in that way. I had one glass of whiskey and I happily fell asleep at 10 o'clock at night. All right, brother, you're the best. Happy holidays. Enjoy Christmas. Matt Mitchell, enjoy Christmas to all of our listeners. Happy healthy holidays. I hope they win their bets.

I hope everyone joins us. convince me. I'm at Action Network H.Q at 11 a.m. Eastern. Hope everyone follows the Faves 5 in the Action Network app. So you can see what picks we ultimately choose on Sunday morning. For Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify.

Review us, especially on Spotify. You can now review. Just give us five fucking stars. Until Tuesday, love you. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this Valentine's. with 1800 Flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries,

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