The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 17 Best Bets with Bob Scucci of Boyd Gaming

Episode Date: January 1, 2022

Now a VP at Boyd Gaming in Las Vegas, Bob Scucci is considered by many to be the godfather of the Favorites podcast. For the final episode of 2021, Bob rejoins the show alongside his old friend, Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman and his podcast replacement, professional gambler Simon Hunter. They discuss the sports betting business, the sea change that's taken place since 2018, and so much more.But first, Chad and Simon play a round of Sharp Calls, narrow down their favorite bets for Week 17, and dive into why this is on the juiciest weeks of the year for professional NFL bettors.And on behalf of the entire Favorites team, a very Happy New Year to you all, dear listeners. And best of luck heading into 2022! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume, podcast network, massive, massive show today. Very special guest at the end of the show. Bookmaker to the world, Bob Scucci, the original Simon Hunter, one of my closest friends, the subject for the book The Odds, one of my favorite people in the world. He'll be on later on. You must listen. Like everything that this podcast is is built.

on Bob Scootie being able to translate sports betting to the common man. But of course, it's Thursday. I got my new BFF, my new companion, my new compadre, professional better Simon Hunter. How are you, buddy? It was definitely weird waking up to know football today. It was like, I kept checking my phone, double checking. I mean, we have college football. Like, I got it all in the background, but it's just different.

It lets you know that it's playoff time. It's the end of the year. There's no more Thursday games, terrible football. It's just all Saturday and Sundays just for the rest of the year. Yeah, look, I've been sort of saying that this season feels a little bit interminable, but I am wistful already. Like I thought back to September, October, November, like being through these four months, which as a sports fan are incredible.

For the podcast, it's incredible. In our business, it's amazing. like all those things, A, is the longest time in the world, and it goes by like that. Yeah. And it's like you just said, at this time of year, I go through a lot of my old notes. I like to see where I was writing down, what I was thinking early in the year. My favorite thing I found was we took the lines week one. I think I got a shit number.

Like I gave out seven and a half. And then we took it again at eight and a half and it covered eight. Literally in my quote right below was, this team is fucking terrible, but you have to bet them. They know how to cover. Hello. And I looked at my notes. Sadly, I didn't take them all year. I think I'm 9 and 7 with lying games this year.

Still made a profit. But man, that's, next year I'll be on that again. Like, there's going to be some terrible team that we just need to be on. You know, Denver was 3-0. Carolina was 3-0. Neither of them were making the playoffs. It's just hilarious. And you look back on those kind of things.

It's just like, what the hell is even going on? It is the last show of 2021. We are appreciative and thankful to everybody who's been listening to us all year, all football season, made us the number one sports betting podcast. In Meek Country, it is Thursday. We'll get to some sharp calls. We'll narrow down how numbers have moved based on the games we liked on Tuesday. We'll do our money line parlay.

We'll do our big balls, bet of the week. We'll talk about what we think our final five will be. Reminder, reminder, follow me in, Simon, in the free to download a award-winning action network app. Follow the Faves Five. The Faves. five, that's where you can see the games we will put into our contest on Sunday. A reminder. You get a pretty good hint of what we like on Tuesday.

We ask you to bet those lines when we talk about on Tuesday. We ask you to follow up on Thursday if you haven't bet them. The contest we're in locks lines on Tuesday or Wednesday. So when we make the decisions on Sunday, a lot of time we are making decisions based on the closing line value of what we see on Sunday versus what the line closed at on Wednesday in this contest. Do not send us the comments about why we are giving out picks for lines that don't exist anymore. It's because that's what we're doing in that handle. The podcast is meant to give you the real-time information. Even more real-time information is available on Convince Me, our live show, Sunday mornings, 11 a.m.,

me and Simon, Chris Raybon, Sean Kerner. You can get that on Action Network HQ on at 11 a.m. Eastern on Twitter. You can also get on an Action Network YouTube page. That has real-time up to the second information for picks. Let's get this from sharp calls. Hello, who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring.

Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Who called you this week? What are they saying? I felt like we locked in very specifically on some games. There's probably a couple games that people are against us on. I got a call from a big-time group that I talked to me. I think it might have been mid-season. This guy was Billy Walters, right-hand man.

He now was his own little professional group that he runs that they're very selective. They might hit six, seven totals or against the spread matchups per year in the NFL. The last time he called me, he was on, I believe it was the Vikings versus Baltimore Ravens. He called me, I think he said the line was seven or six and a half. Ravens ended up being up that big in that game. Ravens came back and went to overtime. You know, the six was going to cover no matter what. So whenever someone like that calls me up, I listen.

It's tough to hear he's on the complete opposite side of what I like. He looks at Giants. This is to them. This is one of their bigger bets this week. I can't do it. Like when he said it to me, I didn't want to laugh and be disrespectful because it was, when someone like that calls you,

you just, you don't even speak. I just listen. But I was like muffling like, what the fuck? Like I wanted to hear his rationale on it because I just, I feel like with the quarterback play we've seen of the Giants, I told you last,

last show, they're my lowest created team right now. Like they're lower than the Jaguars. They're lower than the Lions. They're lower than the Jets. They're lower than the Bears. His whole rationale was this line should be three. and a half, it's seven. I have to take the seven, had to take the six and a half. I think it's down

to five and a half five at certain books now. Yeah, this line is moving aggressively in the giant's direction right now. And I get it. Like a group like him betting 40K, it has more weight than the public betting a million dollars on the other side. I mean, that's how much bookmakers respect these kind of, this kind of money. So I'm going to stick to my guns. Maybe I just won't bet as much on the Bears. But if it's Nick Foles and it's this Bears team, I love this matchup for this team at home. I'm going to stick with it, but I just want people to have caution knowing that you're going against a professional who's betting NFL for over 35 years, and he's worked with arguably the best betting pro ever at this. So that's definitely one I wanted to put out there right away. For me,

being the other side of it, it's terrifying. Like, this might have been a 10K, a 15K bet kind of for me this week at the Bears. I'm not going above 5K. I'll leave out there what I already have, and maybe I'll keep taking this line as it moves down for maybe a thousand here and there. But this no longer will be one of our five. I just, I can't do it, especially when the guy like that's reaching out to me. I just have to respect the call. So that was an interesting call. Then we had a bunch of pros on the same side as us. The guys love Tennessee. We see it still sitting there a minus three and a half. Had a couple people reach out to me and ask me about that number. When you have a three and a half and you have the favorite, that's a good thing when it doesn't move to three. That means

that professionals are coming on the minus three and a half. When I look at the Pittsburgh game, that's scary. The fact that it's still sitting on three and a half and the, that pro money has come in on them and still sitting there at three and a half for Pittsburgh, that's scary because they're the dog. When it's the favorite, you feel good about it. So with Tennessee, I'm seeing some fours out there in offshore books. Nothing's changed there. I still love that number.

A bunch of pros love that number. So they're aligned with this on Tennessee. Another discrepancy for us is I said I really like the Ravens. Got a lot of pushback on that one. Talk to two different pros. Their group has already hit the Rams for small. I mean, yeah, the Rams at minus three, minus three and a small amount. they're trying to bet it again.

Obviously, it's a little different where you're limited early in the week because of all the injury news. And then we saw the video of Lamar. I don't know if you saw that video, Chad, but it's bad. The coach blows the whistle for the end of the drill and you're supposed to jog to the next station. He looked like an 80-year-old man. He could barely really move on it. He was just very, I don't even know how to explain it. It's just like he didn't want to put weight on that ankle.

When he was stepping up the throw, he didn't want to put weight on it. What are we doing here? If I want to bet Lamar, I'm betting on him on his athleticism. So I didn't get it when they were telling me that. they were so heavy on the Rams. And then I saw the footage. Maybe it was last night, this morning of Lamar putting weight on the ankle and trying to run on it.

So I'll buy out. I'm going to buy out on my Ravens position. It's just I can't do it. So as long as it's under five or four and a half and you can still get this number, I got no issue taking the Rams. To me, this was a trap spot for this Rams team. But if Lamar can't run and you can just make him one, you know, all you have to do worry about is Lamar throwing the ball.

That kind of takes away how. half the offense of the Ravens. So that was definitely one of the bigger ones that changed my mind. Because I told you coming in, I was either going to bet the Ravens or not bet it at all. And now I flip. Now I am betting the Rams just because I know other pros are on that number. So bet the Ravens this morning at plus four. I know.

I'm right there with you, though. Like I love them coming in. I have to try to go against my own number and just look at other people's views and what their information they're giving me. If they're getting good info that he's not right and that he's forcing it. And then we see the video of him looking like that, it was just the reason I bought out of my position. Washington football team. If I hadn't already made my big bets of the season, this would probably end up being one of them. I feel like I'm up to eight different

guys I talked to in the last 48 hours that have just bet this number, bet this money line all over Washington. When one pro said something really interesting me, he was like, okay, they played two weeks ago. Who was a quarterback? I don't even remember. It was like their third stringer or fourth stringer. They ended up losing that game. The eagle is 27 to 17. We're just going off that. It's weird. Again, it's very weird. The bookmakers didn't make this line seven. Their whole rationale behind it was the same as me. I make this number two and a half three. They make this number a pick. They think they're getting three and a half, four points of value. That's why I think so many of them are making this one of their bigger bets.

I love that we made this our foxhole bet. We told people to take it at four, take it a three and a half. It's down to three, down to three and a lot of books. Just a pro number. So it wasn't shocking here and then. The second biggest one they all talked about was that Vikings game. So coming up in the show, you'll hear someone against this pick, but we hit it right on the head. We knew this number kind of stunk. We knew that the pros were going to bet this. The fact that the bookmakers haven't moved it back to seven, now it's been two days. It touched, like I have alerts on my phone through our great action app.

I got two alerts for seven. I called up my runner. He said, hey, can you make it to a Borgata? Can you make it to this other casino and get this number down real quick? By the time he got there, it was already six and a half. By the time he got to the next casino was already down a six and a half. So it literally as we're talking moved to seven all the books are just a couple I see it at a couple books in Connecticut. So that's that's what we're hoping for. So we'll take the seven with him. It probably moves because I believe they're getting Jaya Alexander back, which is a big big deal for this Green Bay team.

But my whole right reasoning for liking this Vikings team again, I people keep reaching out to us about Kirk in prime time. We have the same numbers. I know how bad Kirk is in prime time. we just have to go off the matchups. I can't really let that trend too much get in my head. Dalvin Cook against this run defensive Green Bay. I mean, what a matchup advantage to this Vikings team. We just saw Chub absolutely tear through them with this Browns team. We've seen it week after week.

If you run it up the middle on this Green Bay team, you can kind of dominate them and you can control the clock. So to me, again, it's not really changed my view. It's going to be one of the more public plays of the week, then Green Bay and the Eagles. But being on the other side of it, I just feel good. And week 17, you kind of want to be with a book at this point. So the fact that we're getting kind of free points here with Washington,

if that could get to four again, that'd be amazing. Like you just said, the Vikings already getting up to seven again. I'm going to send a couple of texts right now and try to get that number because to me, it's just not going to last. I could just keep going back down to six and a half. Plus seven minus 114. So it's not going to last long. I just bet it at Fandul here in Connecticut.

There you go. What do you think of that? As we're talking, all right. Well, listen, you got to some of the games, but we do have to narrow them down. I will state clearly that I've already made a bunch of bets based on our conversation the other day. Tennessee, it got down to minus three from three and a half. I bet that. I did bet Atlanta plus 14.

I'm feeling a little bit uncomfortable about that. I got Washington plus four. Again, we're going to talk to Kansas City minus five against the Bengals. I bet Baltimore, Minnesota. I got Pittsburgh plus three and a half. Okay. Let's skip the bucks and the jets. we had circled it.

I don't think we're going to play it. But let's talk about the Chiefs and the Bengals. That was one of the picks that we loved on Tuesday. Chiefs minus five, getting a lot of pushback on that. And just a quick aside on the Tampa game, it's probably going to be in my prop pick for Sunday morning when our show convinced me.

A, B, I believe he needs 200 yards receiving to hit a bonus. I just could see time trying to get him there. So the next two weeks, I'm going to be all over AB. There's a bunch of different players. like this. But I love players with bonuses and veteran quarterbacks who they want to help these guys out, especially a guy like AB who took less money or did whatever to be on Tampa to be with Brady. I can just see Brady trying to help him. So for me, I'll be on the Jets in that game. And that's a prop. I'm going to be on way bigger. I'll be on a bunch of AB props. I knew where I get pushed

back in that Chiefs game. I knew when we said it, just people assume always that we'll always take the dogs, especially home dogs. I just can't do it. We talked about all the reasons. I mean, And the biggest one is the Mahomes factor, the fact that such a young, inexperienced team in the Bengals, like someone said, I think they broke a record. They had the most, they had two receivers over 1,000 yards that are under 25, and they had a running back over 1,000 yards under 25. So this is just a very young, inexperienced team. I love the Bengals. I love their future. I love what they've built.

They're going to make the playoffs. There's no doubt. This is just a bad spot for them. This is, again, I heard, too, that if they win this game, that I don't even need to worry about next week. If they win this, they're actually in the playoffs. Next week is for the division, though. That was my whole point.

That's why I felt like they'd be looking ahead. They want to win the north. That means a lot to them, especially a franchise that hasn't won in a long time. So coming in, I told you, I wanted to take the Bengals. The Bengals were still at seven, seven and a half. I'd be all over it. It's not. It's down to five.

The professionals, the public, everyone has come in and bet the Bengals down to this point. So nothing's changed here. I still love the Chiefs. I know I might be walking into or stepping in that the Chiefs are due for a letdown game. I feel like they've had letdown games. They've kind of gotten away with it because their defense has been that good for them. So their offense, to me, is clicking into form.

They're only getting better. They'll have Travis Kelsey back this week. They're going to keep improving on what they've been building. So that defense with that offense against his Bengals team, this line should have been seven. The fact that it's moved so much just because of what the Bengals did last week when in such a big game putting up so many points against a beat-up Ravens team, it still feels like we're getting three points here. So to me, you're getting this number under six.

You have to take it every time. You have to take the Chiefs here. All right. I mean, I'm siding with you. Whatever you say on this, I'm going with. It is against, look, it's against everything that we would normally do, right? We've been fading the Chiefs this year, but they're under a touchdown favorite. When they've been over a touchdown favorite is when they've struggled the most,

We are impressed what their defense has done lately, but you can also look and say their defense has played, a Chargers team in which they struggled mightily against the run and won because of really bad decisions by Brandon Staley. They beat a Giants team that is terrible. They beat a Broncos team that they probably should have lost to because they had 450 yards of offense the Broncos did and had some bad luck around the end zone.

So you could easily look at this and say that everything the chiefs are doing well is the opposite of what we need. I do think it's interesting. Like you just said, you just said they've got all these young players, the Bengals, who have done all these amazing things under 25, but that also shows their inexperienced, right? And so we're using the fact they're amazing to highlight the inexperience. I'm not sure I buy that logic, Simon.

I was more saying they've had an amazing season. But again, look at who they play. The North is, AFC North is absolutely terrible this season. So, like, yeah, I'm giving them a bunch of respect. a bunch of props. Shit's about to get real from them. That was my whole point. Like they've had,

they put up all these incredible numbers. Now they're, now they're both the gun, guns, the cream of the crop, the best team they have seen the last four years, arguably the best coach of, I can't really say it's a Belichick, but it's been Belichick and Andy Reed.

If not Belichick, then Andy Reed is, is right there. Getting a lot more credit. Yes. So that, that's my whole point. It's like the coach,

the coaching mismatch, including the youth, the youth of the Bengals. That's what I think's going to end up hurting them in this game. It's just, it's going to be too much for them to overcome. All right. So now we know on Tuesday when we talked about the Raiders and the Colts,

the Colts were two and a half point favorites and Carson Wentz had just been ruled out. Now we know it's Sam Ellinger and is going to be quarterback. But this line is now shot back up to six and a half. So basically what happened was the NFL changed their protocol. The CDC came out and they changed it to five days of quarantine. So literally Darius Leonard, they're just. star linebacker. He was supposed to be out this upcoming week under the old guidelines because he tested positive and I think it was 10 days. So he was supposed to miss this week. He just got

cleared today. He was at practice today Leonard for the Colt. So they change the guidelines where Carson, if he comes in Saturday or maybe it's Sunday morning, gets his temperature checked and he's below the threshold, whatever it is, 98 degrees, he can play. He doesn't even need to take a test to pass. He just needs to pass the temperature check. So basically NFL sold their soul. They don't care anymore. They're like, you know what? We're fucking over this bullshit. We need the money. We need the ratings. We don't want people complaining about star athletes and missing playoff games. We don't care if you have COVID. If you don't have any symptoms and your temperature is below a certain level, you can play. So it's gross. It's grimy. But Carson might

be back. He tested positive, I believe, Monday morning. Yep. In five days, Saturday, he passed that temperature check. He'll be in there. So the bookmakers are hanging that line because they don't want any more exposure to that Colts number. They probably got hit hard when the CDC came out and the NFL changes or ruling on that one and a half, whatever they were hanging to that Colts number. They're just going to play it safe and they'll just leave it up there for now. So for me, if you miss that one and a half, two and a half for the Colts, I'd wait. Just wait until you know Carson's back.

I would not be betting that, betting real money on this rookie quarterback at this point. So just keep waiting. You already missed the best of the number. There's not much you can do with it now. All right. So we talked a lot about the Washington football team, but we should, you know, we made We talked a lot about it on Tuesday, too. It was our foxhole bet.

It was at plus four. We loved it then. Overreaction special of the week, right? You're talking about the Washington football team that just got destroyed. We're talking about an Eagles team that really struggles in the first half. Stucky and Raybon talking on the Action Network podcast this morning, had a great stat. teams that don't cover by more than 28 points, i.a. they were blown the fuck out like the Washington football team was this past weekend is Dallas. 78, 46 and 5, 63% against the spread

since 2003. Bookmakers just bank on public overreactions. Everyone in Vegas loves this game. You mentioned it. You got calls from eight different groups that love this game, Washington football team. Bang it. Again, I try to tell people at time, a lot of these groups are calling me because they want me to make bets for them in New Jersey. That's honestly why a lot of these guys reach out to me. It's just there might be two books that take professional money in Vegas. New Jersey, it's easy to spread it out. I mean, you can get 1,000 down on 20 different books.

That's a 20K bet instead of really popping up on these books radars. You're going to spread it out. So the reason a lot of these guys are calling me talking about Washington is just they're trying to get that four. That was the biggest thing. A lot of people reaching out because they wanted that plus four. So that's a good number by stucking them. I bet you it goes even higher in divisional matchups. But the biggest thing is just Washington has a great run defense up front.

And we've seen it with Hertz. He's inconsistent. The public's going to keep coming in on this Eagles number. That should be a big warning sign to people that's already come back down. Again, some offshore books have this down to three. That's a huge, huge red flag of people. When 80% of the bets, 80% of the money is coming in on the Eagles, and the line has now moved a full point from four down to three.

That's a big sign, a big warning sign, not to be taking the ego. So as we sit here, if this line is three and a half in our contest, how do we not make one of our five? I agree. I'm with you, man. 100%. Let's talk about the Titans game, though. I'm skipping over the Rams and the Ravens.

We talked a little bit about it. Too much stuff we don't know. We, just for clarity, we both like the Falcons as big dogs against, the bills. Market is kind of in agreement with us only in that it moved from like 16 to 14 and is basically wavered between 14 and 14 and 1 half. Titans have not moved. There are three and a half against the dolphins. Everybody who's professional likes the Titans this week. Yeah, you saw it though. You just see a little bit of movement. It came down to three. So some pro group did come in on Miami. They moved it. Then way more money came back in on Tennessee and it went

right back up. It might have moved just for a couple of hours and it was shot back up three and a half. you know more better than me. Like I know Stucky hates Miami. I'm sure he's all over this Tennessee game. His simple reason is just going to be what a lot of people are looking at. It's like Miami hasn't beat anyone on this win streak. Who are they to, you know, be under six points against the Tennessee team that has been proven, has been beating good teams while injured.

I mean, they were beating teams while they had key guys out. Now they're going to allow these key guys back. So yeah, I know it's your Scrooch Roulette pick. So you already love it. You're already in on it. Tennessee, if you're getting under four, under five, that's a great number. You have to take it and just live with the results.

This number should be six. Maybe the bookmakers are kind of laying a trap here and I'm walking into it. The fact that so much public money has come in on Miami and some pro money and they moved it down, it means there is someone betting that other side, which makes you feel better. Because if it was 80% of the money,

80% of the tickets on Tennessee, yeah, I might have to be like, okay, we need to take a step back here. We might be walking into one. It's not that kind of, It's pretty even across the board. So it could be the public we're riding with here, but I got no issue with that. I just like that Tennessee number.

I think it's a smart number. Remember the Titans, baby. The Vikings and the Packers. So I mentioned that Scooch is going to come on later. The originator of the Scooch roulette game, he's going to make a Scoot Roulette pick. It may or may not involve this game. We love the Vikings here. Big balls, better the week.

Big balls. Betta the week. So much pushback from our followers. Oh my God. I get it. People hate Betting Kirk in primetime. We know we have to take this number. It's so inflated.

Can I just say one thing? I think those primetime, there are systems that matter, that have data sets that are huge. There are gimmicks. This feels like a fucking gimmick. It is glaring, though. I got to look it up because people keep posting it,

but I think it was like two and nine against the spread and primetime game, something crazy like that. But it's too big of a number in a matchup, and especially with Green Bay is the public darling. We knew I'm on some shock this week. I'm not going to lie. I actually flipped from the Cardinals to the Cowboys. I'm on the Cowboys now.

The more tape I've watched and more numbers I've looked into. This one I haven't changed. If anything, I feel even better about my position on the Vikings. The fact that Dalvin Cook is now back for this Vikings team, his run style is perfect for a matchup against his Green Bay run defense. They hate running backs with speed and power that go up the middle. That's one of the worst things they're at the defending Green Bay this year. That's exactly what Dalvin Cook does.

He is a man with speed and power. So looking at this across the board, Chad just talked about it. It moves up to seven. Grab that seven if you can. I'm worried about by time you'll hear this. We'll be back down a six and a half, which still is fine. I'm still happy taking a six and a half. Just a proverse shows game.

Like Chad talked about it. It's a prime time game. Everyone, all their money line parlayes, all their teasers, everything is going to end Sunday night tied to this game. We're getting two, three points of value just because of that. The bookmakers, they had to pump this lineup just to, you know, factor in all that money coming in on those money line parlays and teasers. So as long as you're getting six and a half, I still love this number.

Why did you flip on the Cardinals and the Cowboys? Like that was a game that, you know, it was at five and a half on Tuesday. It's at four and a half now, I think. I'm not sure like, is it because the number moved down a little bit? Like it was a, it should have been at three or three and a half anyways. I honestly looked through it and it's just the issues. Actually, let me correct myself, though. I'm seeing it at six now.

So it went down and came back up. Again, I talked to a couple pros who liked Dallas and that maybe had me start wavering. But it was when I went back and looked at the number. numbers look at the film on Kyler on third down. Since he's come back from his injury, if you just take Hopkins out on his third down plays, it's crazy how relying he is on his own legs and Connor. And I know Connor's supposed to be back this week for them

at running back for Arizona. That's a big deal for them. But they've put too much on Kyler. They've put too much on the shoulders of a guy who he just isn't right. He's not making the right reads. He doesn't have his speed right now. Like that, that guy catching him against the Colts from behind.

I was shocked by that. Kyler looked like he was going to break away, running for a touchdown. He got a call from behind, which is very rare for him. So I hate taking the chalk. I really do. And it's,

painful to do it, especially where it's the Cowboys that, I said, this line's over inflated with the Cowboys just because they've been covering machine. And the books know that. They can't take the public, keep winning,

you know, a bookmaker earlier talked to the other night, said their biggest liability for this coming weekend is the Dallas Green Bay teasers. He says, Every single person that's coming and done two team teasers, he says it's like 10 to 1, the money compared to the next closest teasers. So it's rare for me to take the truck like I am.

But with this Cowboys matchup, it's who do I trust more on key downs, third downs, have consistent, good drives. It's the Cowboys right now. I've seen it from them the last couple weeks. I tried to go against them because I thought Dak was banged up and he had him been playing well. Even with that, it's not going to matter. If you can run the ball with Pollard and Zika Elliott against this really banged up front of the Cardinals, it doesn't really matter what Dax's going to be doing.

So it's rare, like you said, I don't really flip to a chalk favorite, but I did it in this case. Is there a number you wouldn't bet it at like it's already at six? That's it. Like six, I'd still take it at six, but once it hits six and a half seven, I'm off of it. All right. The last game I got to talk about the Steelers and the Browns, the Browns are three and a half point favorites. We love the Steelers at three and a half in this spot. That is your scutte roulette pick.

I found my notes, by the way. That's your scutrude roulette pick. I know why. Makes total sense. We loved it. We're so fucked. Got a couple, got some pushback on this. Obviously, some pros.

They like the Browns in this position. I just have to look beyond just the numbers on paper. Again, it was Tomlin coming home after an embarrassing loss, coming home to play, you know, a Brown's team that they had a close loss last week in screen, but they weren't really that. I mean, they're a hungry team. Pittsburgh, this is it. This is literally their season. This has been Rathesberger's last home game, apparently of his career. Like he said, he told a couple reports. He's not going to say it's his last game, but he says he's pretty sure this is it for him. I had to put all that emotion into this line. I can't just be a robot and just look at this and be like, oh, this line should be three. The Browns are a better team on paper. Maybe I'll just take the Browns here.

No. When I made this line, I made a minus one for Pittsburgh. I still think. I think I'm getting four and a half points of value. I'll still take Pittsburgh. I know it's going to be the public side. They're a public dog. Please don't talk to me about more victories. That'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Maybe some pro group is coming on the Cleveland. That's why they've kept it this way. But how it was positive by today would be down to three. And the fact that it's still three and a half, a little scary, little scary. Because the bookmakers are not doing us any favors. They don't want to give us an extra hook for free. They want you to pay for that hook. They want to move to three and make some sucker pay minus 125 to buy that hookup. So it is interesting that this line hasn't moved,

but nothing's changed. I'm still betting it. I've still bet it every day this week. Ben-Rothersberg's last home game, Tomlin, that defense, rah-rah. Let's go. What? A rah-rah, Mike Tomlin spot. No excuses, no explanations. You got to win it. That's the standard. I haven't heard anything that we've discussed. I haven't seen anything in the line moves the past couple days that makes me feel differently about what we're thinking about for Sunday. Chiefs minus five. Love it. Steelers plus three and a half. Nervous but still like it. Titans minus three and a half. I want to marry it. Washington

football team. If you can get it plus four, it pops back up. Great. Plus three and a half is still good. That is the game that every wise guy is circling. It is a big pro's Joe's game, big bets on the side of the Eagles, big money on the side of the football team. And the Titans. minus three and a half. Steelers, Titans, Vikes, Washington football team, Chiefs. Yeah. And again, we might shuffle one in there.

Maybe I'll convince Chad if something comes Sunday, but I love those five. I bet all those five multiple times. It's just there's very, very little that will change from now until then, unless some COVID news breaks out. Like, again, if Patrick Mahomes is out for this game, yes, I'm buying out of my chief's position.

But, you know, if all these guys pass their COVID test, Nothing's going to change here. I have bet all those games plus Atlanta plus 14 and Baltimore plus four immediately regretful. Simon, we did our big balls. Reminder our Foxhole was the Washington football team. Simon says was Pittsburgh. Foxhole is Washington football team.

Big balls, bed of the week. We just did. Minnesota Vikings. Should we run through our round robin? Yeah, let's do it. Round robin this. All right. Tricky, right?

Yeah, it's tough because there's teams I can see covering as these dogs, but I just can't see them winning outright. Like, I bet a little bit on the Minnesota Vikings money line. I think Aaron Rogers is like 11 and 0 or 12 and 0 at Lambo in December. You're not really getting great value taking Minnesota's money line against that kind of number, but you got the big balls and you want to bet with me. I'll be taking them in my money line around Robin. Let's get gross, buddy.

Shock the world gross. How can we not take Atlanta's money line against the bills? That's a huge number. Don't feel good about it. It's either them or the Jets. Honestly, I feel better about taking Atlanta. We're an Atlanta Falcons podcast.

We are. And you need to throw in some big ugly dogs on this thing. It's just the payout so nice. It's like, again, I'm kicking myself from missing out on Houston last week. Like that plus 500. God, you love to take those. All right. So we got Atlanta.

Minnesota. Minnesota. How are we not taking the Washington football team? Washington football team. The Bengals. People can say what they want. I'll wait and see if it's Teddy covers. Denver.

Denver's up a six and a half at this point. Maybe the bookmakers know that it's not going to be Teddy. I have, we're sitting here on Thursday. Come Sunday morning, it's Teddy. I guarantee people this will be one of my five. And to cap it off, Houston. They're playing against the rookie and Trey Lance. Shock the world, Davis Mills.

When back to back plus 500 as a dog for us. I know I'm pretty sure when I saw before he came on. They're probably the biggest public dog this week, right, Houston? It's terrifying, but we have to do it. It's, it's Tray Lance making a start here. Let's fade it and try to get lucky two weeks in a row on here on this Houston team. It is gross. But as you've said, Davis Mills, he might be better than Trevor Lawrence right now.

That's fact. And if you don't mind waiting, look for is Pittsburgh. I'll have Pittsburgh and all my money line round Robbins. It's just a lot of people don't like waiting until Monday night. And you also mentioned Texans the biggest public dog this week. 85% of the bets on the Texans right now. Yeah, they might be dead. That might be dead on arrival, but.

DOA. Yeah, that's, you don't want to, you do not want to be hearing that when you take a big dog. That's never a good side. At this point in the season, is there, is it worth doing a survivor? Is there anything left? I've had a couple people reach out, but it's like less than 1% of our fan base. I would say trust what guy you're here. I'll throw something out Sunday morning about what my numbers are saying the value is for the survivor.

But I don't know because I just don't know what you're going to have at this point. Like what do you have left? It's impossible at this point. Yeah. So to me, if there's teams you've been saving, just like the bullet and take it. If you've been saving the Buccaneers for this match against the Jets, yeah, any given Sunday, weird shit can happen. But, I mean, how do you not take the Bucks? If you've been saving them this whole season for this Jets matchup, you have to take it.

So I would say at this point, stop saving, stop planning ahead. Just get through the week and get to the final week. You have two weeks left of the Survivor contest. Just take the good teams. You've got nothing to save for. We've done all we can do. We've done the sharp calls. We've given the five picks that we still love.

Washington football team plus three and a half, Vikes plus seven, even six and a half, Titans minus three and a half, Steelers plus three and a half, chiefs minus five. We will evaluate these on Sunday. Watch convince me on at Action Network HQ. It's not a podcast. Watch it on Twitter. at Action Network HQ or on the Action Network YouTube page, follow the Faves 5 in the Action Network app.

Listen, stick around because we got a very special guest, the guy who made all this happen, Mr. Bob Skucci. And now a word from our friends at Fandul. That's right, Chad. And this week, Fandual Sportsbook wants you to know that each win means even more in the college football playoff. That's why they're hooking up new customers with 30, to one enhanced odds on any team to win their semi-final game.

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Bonus for Tennessee users is fulfilled in site credit within 72 hours and expires 14 days after. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported

me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picket here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know.

I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we

don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid?

Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way.

Open your free, our heart radio app. Search learn the hard way and listen now. To receipt. Restrictions apply. See full terms at sportsbook. com. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 Next Step or text Next Step to 53342 in Arizona.

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Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too. Because when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring. at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council.

What grows in the forest? Trees? Sure. Know what else grows in the forest? Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we reconnect with each other.

The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest near you and start exploring. at Discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the Ad Council. Now joining us from Las Vegas, the vice president of race and sports operations at Boyd Gaming Bookmaker

to the world. My original BFF. Oh my God, I love this man so much. Bob Scootie, how are you, buddy? Jed, I'm doing great. Thank you for bite me back on the show. I didn't realize how much I missed this. You did, right?

You totally miss being on. on the show. Yeah, I did. I texted you a few weeks ago and I said, you know, just thinking about you and the show and I can't believe it's been that long since, you know, I haven't been on it. Well, listen, you could have been on forever. And the truth is, if you stayed on, then our new co-host, professional better, Simon Hunter, he wouldn't have been able to be on the show, or the three of us would have been on the show. And we could have like, we could have been the new three amigos. Simon, say hello to Bob Scucci. though, Bob, and there's still an open seat.

If Bob ever finds he's got enough free time to come back and he wants to make it through and me, he goes, I would love that. You get a pro perspective, a bookmaker perspective, and whatever the hell Chad does. That's pretty tempting. Boy, I got to consider that. Well, Simon, you're doing a fantastic job. So I don't know if I could live up to that by coming back on the show. Listen, we're thrilled you're on.

It's the last show of the year, obviously. 2020, 2021 have been crazy around the world, people managing it. as best they can. But it has been, there are specific questions we want to ask you. It has been insane for sports betting the last two years. Obviously, so many states legalizing, more people being introduced to gambling. Simon is going to kick it out with his first question. Bob, I know you've been in the business a long time since the 80s. Could you ever envisioned you'd have back-to-back months of taking a billion dollars in bets at the sports books in Las Vegas? No, you know, a lot of my colleagues and I used to talk about,

whenever we would legalize sports betting around the country and how that would affect Las Vegas and all the different scenarios that we kind of thought of. It's not panning out any way that we envisioned it. It's much better and different than we imagined it. I mean, the different players involved in everything, but in Las Vegas, we benefited just as much as all the other states that have legalized sports betting around the country. So no, to answer the question, I never would have envisioned it as massive and as big and as popular as it is. It exceeded all my expectations. Scoot, you are the bookmaker of the world. At least you always were. I have a follow-up question of what you just said, which is you and I, obviously, we've known each other for more than 20 years.

Like when we started doing this podcast together, it was because when I wrote the odds, when I reported the odds, it was about the guys at the start us where you were one of the bookmakers. and you told the best stories and had the best way of translating what was happening behind the counter for the common man. Ten years ago, 11 years ago, I was in Vegas. I was doing a story for E60 on ESPN. And I said to you, what happens if it becomes legal? And you said, it's like Disney World. People will do it in their state and then they'll want to come to Nevada and experience it for real.

So you say it's different than how you imagined it. What did you imagine it would be? I remember that vividly. compared gambling to kind of your local amusement park with a roller coaster and introducing people to the amusement park and then eventually they want to go to Disney World. But that was really before the explosion of mobile and online wagering. That's really the part that has exploded even more so than retail. So it's different than just opening up a retail sports book,

you know, physical sports book in a casino or racetrack or. or an arena. The online business is, is really where all the money is and all the explosion is. What about in game? I remember we talk about that all the time too. And you were trying to figure out, is it going to matter? What's it going to be? It was huge in Europe. I remember you once made fun of me for thinking it was such a big deal. Yeah, it's still, I mean, it's still growing. And that's probably another area. I, I underestimate it. Probably. Probably. didn't see as much value in football as there is because of the fast pace of the game. And I thought maybe people would be too engrossed in watching the game to kind of move away to

start betting during the game on specific props. And I think to some extent that's still true. I think because most of the in-game wagering is still on just who's going to win the game and the total, whether the total is going to go over or under. So a lot of the hundreds of different props that, you know, we now offer, I still think the majority, is just on who's going to win the game. We've seen sports books now about to really, not just fully upgrade their sports books, they're really, I mean, they're doing amazing stuff now,

especially in Vegas. We got sports books that are outdoor pool bars and big screens and everything like that. Where do you see it going in 10 years? Like, is it going to keep getting even bigger and more glamorous? Are we going to have a $2 billion month for Las Vegas? Like, these things don't feel like they're that far off, you know, five, 10 years away.

There's no plateauing in the growing of sports betting I mean, even during the pandemic. I mean, we've had two of the biggest years in terms of gross sports bets in Nevada during the pandemic, 2020 and 2021. And you hit the nail on the head with kind of the immersive experience of sports betting. It's more than just placing a bet, and that's it. You have kind of the whole experience. The traditional sports book in Las Vegas from 20 years ago,

this giant cavernous place enclosed with screens and seats, that's kind of going away and being replaced with kind of a lounge, kind of an experience where you can come with your buddies and have food and drink, watch the game, make bets. It's kind of this whole fluid area where it's kind of an open space, part of the casino or part of the arena or part of the racetrack, wherever the retail betting is. So I think we just keep transitioning.

People are receiving it very well. and we're getting more and more people that didn't make wagers before. So we're expanding the demographics. Scooch, you're a big executive at Boyd Gaming. It's why you stopped doing the podcast is because your job was changing and you felt like you weren't as connected to the games and you weren't making lines. And, you know, you weren't sort of part of the day-to-day process of making the numbers.

How much do you miss making the numbers? That's the part I missed the absolute most. And I'm not even kidding. You know, we've partnered with Fandul for our non-N Nevada sports books. So we have 20 sports books now across seven states. And we leverage the, you know, the Fandul trading team, the Flutter trading team. And I talk with those guys all the time. That's the part that I miss.

And there's just this excitement even when I talk about it. And when I meet with those guys and I talk with the trading team, I'm like, you know, that's the part I miss. And they even realize it because they say, boy, your eyes just. light up and you seem like so excited when you talk about this. I mean, there's an excitement into the new area of what I'm doing. I'm looking at, you know, strategic partnerships and moving into new states and I'm dealing with legislators and regulators and all the new states. And that's new and that's different. But the bookmaking is exciting. That's really, I mean, that's what kept me in the business all these years. And that's really the part I missed the most. How often when you're talking to,

and Fando, who is our sponsor, by the way, and this is just coincidence, you're talking. You're to the trading team. You know that they're using all this analysis, all this math, all these algorithms, and you're coming in just knowing it instinctively what it should be. How often are you on the same side or the same, like how close are the numbers when you guys are sort of having these conversations between what you know of when you can do it with a pencil and paper and three consultants versus what they're doing with millions of billions of dollars in algorithms? They're really close, especially in the major sports. I mean, when you're talking NFL, they're right there.

You know, where I can't be involved as much as, you know, all the other sports. I mean, we're booking more sports than we've ever booked before. So you can't be in tune to everything. But as far as the, you know, NFL and a lot of the major college football games right there, I still have the ability to change what is being recommended or what's being, you know, sent by a particular data feed. So I can detach from that feed. And I do it more and more rarely now. But, you know, Super Bowl and some of the big games where I do want to have a position, we still do that.

You sound like a fucking sellout. I just simply don't have the time to do it for on every, on every, game. I mean, it's when you're across 20 sports books in seven different states, you have to have have a trading team of, you know, a hundred people. You keep hiring, hiring, hiring, or, you know, you leverage what's already out there. So it's being more efficient. So Bob, I always wondered, your work they never really end, especially when you were a bookmaker. Other times and you would go home and a lot of professionals like me, we like betting from midnight to 3 a.m. in Vegas. That's our favorite time to come and make bets. How many times you've been woken up and people

ask you, can we take this guy's money? Some random guy just walked in. He seemed a little buzzed, which again, it's an act. A lot of us will walk in there. We're acting like we're a little drunk. We'll make big bets just to get the bookmakers to take our money. How many times have you been woken up on those phone calls Saturday night? Some guys trying to make some big bet for Sunday morning in football games. I would keep my phone next to the bed and just wait. It was kind of a very restless sleep, especially Friday, Saturday nights before the big games. And just wait and just wait for the phone. You knew. it was going to ring. So it was basically every weekend and all the time. And to that extent,

even now, because we now across all the states that we're in, we'll have a guy that wants to bet two million on a particular college football game or three million or something that's 10 to 1. He wants to bet a million that pays 10 million. I'll get the call. And then you have to make a decision like right away in some instances. And so you have to always be a very big. And I'm still, to that extent, I'm still doing that. It's less and less frequent because the size of the wages that require my call are much greater. But I'm still doing that. So, Simon, that's a phenomenal question. You know, scoge back then, if someone's calling you and it's about the Stardust or whatever, it's 50 times or it's 100 grand. And now you're saying it could be multiple millions, but you still got to do the same calculus in your head in the middle of night when you're just waking up. How are you? determining what are the questions you're asking to decide, all right, we're willing to take this bet or not? The first one is, is he getting a good line? Is he taking advantage of a real good line?

Or is it pretty solid? If it's a three everywhere in the country, I feel pretty good about taking the bet. If we're at two and a half, let's say we just went to two and a half and everyone else in the country is at three or it's a stale line or maybe we didn't move it quick enough, something like that. I'd be less inclined. And then who's making the way? wager? Is it a celebrity? Is it somebody like, you know, is it one of the well-known billionaires that like to make wagers, you know? So who it is, what the line is, those are the major factors. And the added factor that I have to consider now is the property at which the bet's being taken, because you can't think of it as just as global operation where all the money goes into one pool.

whatever casino is taking the bed, if it's a retail cash wager, then that casino is on the hook. So in some instances, it could be a really small casino that only does maybe five or 10 million a year in EBITA, and you're taking a bet that's going to wipe out the profits for the entire year on that casino. Well, then we have to kind of come up with an alternate plan there. Maybe we are able to kind of split up the bets somehow into one of our other properties, if there's another property in the state, something like that. But these are all the things that I have to consider. Anybody who had the parlay of Scooch saying strategy and EBITA on this podcast,

congratulations you just catch. I'm like, you know, I'm just thinking about you and me sitting like at that crappy restaurant in the Mirage, sweating games on a Saturday. night or go in places that we're not a lot of talk about on the podcast that I wouldn't even write about in the book. And like, now I got fucking Scooch talking about strategy and EBITA. Yeah, when you talk about how I would have envisioned it 20 years ago, that's another area that I think I handicapped wrong. Jesus, I don't even know why we're asking you questions. You got it all wrong.

Unbelievable. Matt Mitchell, since Scooch was your inspiration for leaving your stable job with a young baby and a bride and getting into the audio business. I do want you to ask Scooch the one question we talked about before we jumped on. Scooch, one of my favorite stories you ever told on the podcast was when the public had an unusually good week in something like week 14, somewhere right in the pre-Christmas window. And you shared that you actually hated when the public had great weeks in the, one or two weeks leading up to Christmas because instead of, with disdain in your voice, you let us know that instead of reinvesting it in bets the next week or rolling it over to

Monday night, they would do the disgusting thing and spend it on Christmas presents for themselves, their children, their loved ones, so that you actually preferred week 17 or the earlier weeks. Is that still the case? It's absolutely. And I actually said that two weeks ago because we had one of our worst weeks of the entire NFL season just before Christmas. And I was like, son of a bitch, we're not going to get that money back. It was the first thing I thought of when it happened. Oh, somewhere Bob Scoochie's mad.

I texted my guys and I was like, this is the worst time this could have happened. Like the week before, the Sunday before Christmas, I said, are you kidding me? Scooge, before you go, I'm going to ask you, to make a scoge roulette pick. Are you ready? Wow. Off the cuff, huh? Off the cuff.

So Simon has the Steelers plus three and a half. I have Tennessee minus three and a half. You can make your choice from any other games. I do like Tennessee. So that would have been the one that I would have picked too. Too bad, sucker. Yeah. I will go with the Packers.

because they, they are just as hot as you can be. The Vikings, they just fall apart in the fourth quarter, even if they do keep it close. They can't close a game and going against the Packers. I don't think they have a chance. What a surprisingly square pick from you? I knew that was coming. This is a classic divisional matchup,

a Vikings team that plays up to the caliber of their opponents, a Packers team that has played incredible against the spread. They're due for regression. I am shocked. I feel like you're laying a trap. You're asking all of our listeners to get the Packers just because you know you're going to need the Vikings. Wow. Wow.

That's really cynical. I don't know. It's been a weird fucking year, Scourge. I don't know. I'll tell you. Since you left, I've lost my warmth. And Simon has turned me into an evil, evil cynical bastard. I could see that.

I could see that. But that's your pick. That's your pick. I'll stick with it. All right. Listen, Bob Scucci. It's like the OG of sports betting. Going back too far, going back too far with me.

Simon loves you. Matt Mitchell, you changed his life. You've changed life for so many people listening to this podcast. They don't even know it. All of our new listeners don't even know how you are the influence for this podcast. We thank you. We love you. We wish you and your family a happy new year.

Here's to being together in 22. Thank you so much. Well, that was really nice. I really appreciate all the nice words. And it was an honor to be here with you guys. I appreciate it. God, we love Bob Scootchy. Our thanks to Bob Scootie Bookmaker to the world.

This has been the favorites. Until we meet again on Tuesday in 2022. For Simon Hunter, I am Chad Millman. Download us from Apple Podcast from Spotify. Give us those five stars. Even if you hate us, want to say something mean. That's cool. Give us the five stars.

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