The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Best Bets

Episode Date: January 8, 2022

What a magical season it's been. Hopes raised, dreams dashed. Pockets filled, emptied, then filled again. Through all of it the Action Network's Chad Millman and Simon Hunter have continued a winning season of analyzing NFL games from a betting perspective while maintaining a friendship at a steady "Hallmark Channel Movie Of The Week" level.Also inspiring strong emotions this week are some lowly underdogs, including the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins as division rivals clash to end the NFL regular season. Looking to head into the playoffs with hefty bankrolls, together Chad and Simon discuss the bets sharp gamblers are hitting this week, where the money is moving, and so much more. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I'm Chad Millman. Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is Thursday, the week of week 18, the week 18 NFL season. I'm joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Mr. Simon Hunter. Hello. Hello, Chad.

You almost forgot where you were for a second. I lost, I did, I lost track for a second. I was trying to think, is there any other housekeeping I needed to do? A little bit of housekeeping for our fans. Apparently I misspoke, or maybe I wasn't clear enough. When we talked last episode, we were talking about our contest. So when I said we didn't make any money, I meant we didn't make the money of the contest. Yes, we had a winning record.

We didn't make the contest money. So we were three short or two and a half, exactly short of making the money. So I believe it was top 50 got paid. Last year, me and Chad, we came in the 24th place this year. we came in like 88th or 89th. So we needed out of 10,000. It might have been 7,000 or whatever it was. But the year before it wasn't that many.

Obviously, as these contests get bigger and more states become legalized, these things are going to keep growing. So, yeah, the contests we were in, it went up tensfold. Obviously, didn't help. So in a normal year, me and Chad would have made the money. That was a good record. But the way it's going nowadays, you just have to have a really, really good year

and not have any down weeks to make the money. So I'm obviously not over. I'm not going to be over until next season. but I just want to clarify, we made money this season. We just didn't make the money in this contest we do. Simon, I will always put my lot in with you, brother. Amen. Listen, it's week 18.

Like I said, it's a confusing week. This is why we do the show twice a week. Because what we talk about on Tuesday, 48 hours later, in any season, it's going to be wacky between market news, injury news. In 2021 into 22, it's going to be wacky because of market news, injury news, COVID. news, playoff seedings, all of that has become a factor in the past 48 hours. We're going to narrow down. We're going to review sort of the games that we loved on Tuesday, going to narrow it down, see if we still hold those positions. We're going to talk about some money line parlays,

which are becoming more interesting this week because of some of the seatings and sort of motivations for teams. We've got to get some sharp calls. So let's start with sharp calls. Hello, who's there, I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring, somebody said, baby, what you doing? It is funny how there's some weeks where I get never-ending calls and there's other weeks like this week where I'm getting calls, but it's not like last week. I felt like last week we had like six games I had professionals really in on. This week's a little different.

And then just this morning, this isn't even a sharp call. We didn't touch on our last show, Antonio Brown, the whole thing. He showed his text this morning. And his text showed Ariens, his head coach, saying, they're not resting. They're playing everyone. So it sounds like my information about Carolina is no good. I still see the line coming down. I've seen it now. It's seven and a half at some books, seven at other books.

I don't know. That text, it's from the head coach. A.B.'s putting it out there, and the coach is literally saying in the text, we're not resting, guys. We're playing. Scary, scary, because I really like that Carolina position. I thought that was a smart play. We have a banged up Tampa Bay team. Why would they not take the week off, try to get healthy, get right, head into the playoffs?

I'm still on Carolina. I just kind of muffled that. And again, I had other guys call on saying they like Carolina. They thought it was still a good number at seven and a half. I'm just looking at my phone right now. It's back up to eight at certain books. So it's going to be interesting following that line. I'm still on it.

I'm still on Carolina. It's just like, what would you do, Chad? Would you just keep playing it out and see how it goes on that one? I don't really know what to do with the position. My opinion, we stay on the Panthers. It's been a really interesting. The fact that this number sort of moved down to seven and a half, even when we continue to see money and bets coming in on.

on the other side. My sense is that some very big money, some kind of syndicate, did come on on the Panthers. I'm with you. I'm just going to hold my position, but it does make you a little scary when you see those texts.

To be honest, I was more interested this week in the story about Hub Barkish, who has an MVP vote, saying he wouldn't vote for Aaron Rogers because he thinks he's a bad guy. True story. Hubarkish gave me my very first job in journalism.

Yeah, I feel so bad for that guy. He seems like a nice guy. And he is just getting destroyed nonstop on the internet. I mean, it's- Steam rolled. It's rough. Steam rolled. Sweet guy, pro football weekly was located 10 minutes from my house.

I looked in the phone book, my freshman year of college for like magazines and newspapers near my house. I came home from Indiana University. Pro Football Weekly was listed. I needed a job for the summer. I called Pro Football Weekly. I went in thinking. I was getting an interview for like an internship.

That day, an editor for Pro Football Weekly had quit and gone to cover the bears for somebody else locally. And they hired me as an editor making like $8 an hour and put me in an office. Like I worked at Pro Football Weekly as an editor for the summer. That was my first job. It was insane. That's actually big money for back then. It was huge.

Yeah. That's a really good bet. Yeah, I was like, I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? I'm an editor at a national football magazine. It was, it was totally nuts. So I'll always have a soft spot for Habarkas. If you were him, would you just post your, whoever you vote for MVP? 100%.

He's got to show who he votes for now, right? You absolutely has to show you who you votes for. Yeah, because that was such a bad look. Chad, may I say something really quick? Of course. Your friend in mine, Brandon Anderson of the Action Network, whose specialty, among other things is the futures market. said in August, recommended that everyone bet Tom Brady to an MVP made an incredibly cogent argument

at 14 to 1, mostly about how it would be a, it's a narrative award. A lot of things were adding up. If Tom Brady were to win the MVP, it would be by far the most money I've ever won betting on anything. And as of Thanksgiving and the beginning of December, Tom Brady was a, I wouldn't say sizable, but he was the favorite and is now a. prohibitive underdog. I hope every single voter feels the same way as this gentleman. I wish nothing but the worst to Aaron Rogers, the unofficial governor of my state here in Wisconsin. He's certainly no more valuable than Tom Brady is to the Buccaneers, especially this season's full of injuries, et cetera, et cetera. And I hope the voters do the right

thing. The best ability is availability, Simon. And Tom Brady was, he was always available. Tom Brady for MVP, if you're listening. So a couple other calls. We were dead on with our Cleveland take. We said, people just take the points with Cleveland. They're plus three at the time. A couple pros. That's what they really liked. Now it's moved so much. There's no value there anymore. It's up to six now for Sinci. So if I had to pick aside, I'd take Sinti now. You're getting six points. It's backup versus backup. I'll take that six with the Bengals on the road. No real feel for it, though. So the value was on that Cleveland at the three. Not much value now.

The one I kept hearing from pros about was the dolphins. We got a lot of heat for my Newland take. all right i get it new inland no matter what they're going to be the seventh seed they can lose and they're still going to no matter what make the playoffs doesn't change my feel about this miami number that was too big at seven i still think it's too big at six and a half for i don't see miami quitting they're like they can still technically if things a bunch of things have to happen for them to make it and it's like a one out of a hundred chance they do make it they don't seem like a team that's going to quit on flores like he had them playing hard they were one and seven they turned their whole season around yeah they let a let down last week we talked about that

That was predictable, that letdown game. It's really hard to win eight straight games. That's really, really hard to do. So from a bounceback perspective, nothing really changed. The fact that I've heard some of the other professionals now saying they're coming in on the dolphins, woke up this morning. I saw the line and moved down to six and a half to spite all the money, all the tickets coming in on the dolphins.

Talk to a bookmaker yesterday in Philadelphia. He said one of the biggest teams this week is New England. Again, this is what people are going to be doing. They're going to be looking like we talked about, the playoff matchups. New England needs this game. Again, they don't need it to make the playoffs. They need it for seating.

It depends on the seating what they get with this. So I already like the dolphins, but now I've heard how many pros were on it, I wish I could have made it my Scrutte roulette bet because it feels, I feel way better about the dolphins I do about Atlanta. And again, another game we can get to. That's a pros versus Joe's game. The pros have come in. The money is coming out Atlanta despite Pitts being out.

Pitts is out now for Atlanta. That's a big deal. I was interested to hear your take on that just because what do they have left. I know they got Cordell Patterson, but man, down Ridley, down pits on all offense. I know the Saints don't have anything either, but like maybe that's one where I'll just be bigger on the under than picking aside, but I still like Atlanta with the points. But that made me feel like shit, seeing that pits is out. Is that official? Was he officially out? It's not official, but it's like when Schaefter, like the way Schaefter talks, it's like he's not

practicing this week. It's so rare for guys that aren't practicing to come in if they have a serious injury in the last week of the season. Like, they're looking at it like what's the point of risking it that he has to get surgery in the off season. Why don't we just take it easy on the kid? So I guess the only thing I'm wondering is he's 58 yards away from setting the rookie season receiving yards record for a tight end. I know. And like there's a bunch of little things like that where it's like I bet I wanted to bet his prop. Luckily they don't hang their props early in the week because I would have lost money on that.

Like I would have been all over his prop. I still think you're getting a good number of Atlanta. I've heard other professionals like it. saw it dropped down to four this morning. It's right back up to four and a half. So it was a pros versus Joe's game. Now pro money is coming on the Saints as well because, again, this is what we'll see throughout this whole final week.

The Saints are playing for more. They like Tennessee. We're one of the most banged up teams this year of the Saints. I mean, no team has had more injuries. They went from James to Taysam Hill to Simeon back to Taysam Hill. It's just, it's been a crazy year for that Saints team. So I'm still looking at this and trying to have a clear mind saying to myself, that's a lot of points for a home team in Atlanta,

playing against a team of the Saints. That's not that good. Like, again, both these teams aren't that good, but it's a divisional game. You're still giving me four and a half with Atlanta at home. I'm still going to be on it. So it was interesting hearing other pros say that's a game they really liked as well. We liked Minnesota at minus two and a half.

We said we wouldn't have taken out just in case Kirk came back. That's a game for the pros were all over. Kirk got cleared. The lines up to four. It's up to four and a half at some books. I still would take it, but obviously we liked it way better at two and a half three. It's still a good number against a bear's team, but I feel like you touched on the last show, Chad. It feels like there are two teams going in different directions.

Like the bears have been playing well these last couple weeks where Minnesota just has not. And a close matchup, now that we're above three, I might start looking at taking the bears, but it's hard to say just because I did bet the Vikings at two and a half, and I don't feel great about betting Andy Dalton on the road. Dude, this is a pass. Pass. Yesterday was Virginia McCasky's 99th birthday. She is, of course, the daughter of George Hallis and the owner of the Bears.

They posted a picture of her on the Bears' Instagram feed and said, happy birthday. The very first comment is from a guy whose handle, I recognize, because it's my buddy Matt, who I mention in the podcast all the time. The very first comment underneath it, it just says, sell the team. And you know how I know he said that? My 15-year-old texted me in the middle of school, a screenshot with the comment circled. Early in the morning, my best friend was trolling the Bears' Instagram account, any 99-year-old woman, and my 15-year-old was not paying attention in school because he was on Instagram,

looking at the Bears' account, then screen-grabbing it and sending it to me. Pass on this game. I've got opinions on the Falcons. Let's go down some of the games here because we got a bunch that we should talk about. Titans Texans. We liked the Texans plus 10 and a half. I still like the Texans plus 10 and a half. I even might like the Texans on the money line. And the Titans team has continued to struggle against teams like the Texans. They did it this year already. And then I was listening to Stucky and Raybond on the Action Network podcast this morning. And Stucky had all these stats about teams that have to play for something versus teams that don't. And in almost

every scenario, like it's a wild swing in favor of the team that has nothing to play for. Yeah. You're going against coach of the year, though. Mike Frable. Are you sure you want to do that, Chad? That's risky. I'm ready to do it. I'm with you on Houston and the spread, but I would not do the money line just because they've

already beaten Tennessee this year. We've seen it. Divisional games, if you're going to sweep a team, usually you have to be pretty damn good. Houston, the first time they played, I think they beat them maybe by seven. They picked off Taino four times in that game, and they won by seven. So I don't hate the idea. Like we said, I like the points. I just, it's the rare time where I'm not going to be taking the money line just because

I just can't see this team winning back to back, especially where they know, Tennessee knows. They win this. They get an extra week off, own playoffs throughout, and they get Derek Henry back after that extra week of rest. So, yeah, I love what Stucky's saying here. Like, we talked about Leps episode. I like fading teams too. I need stuff.

I won't be joining chat on that money line. That's a, that's a ballsy bet. I bet they'll be in our money line parlay, though. Yeah, because that's 385. Yeah, that's great value. Yeah. So Texas plus 10 and a half. We still like it.

Washington football team, that line has moved up. I think we liked it at six and a half. I'm now seeing it, I think, seven. Still take it at seven. I've seen some books do it at seven and a half. Obviously, we like the value a much more at six and a half. Giants are my worst graded team. They have a backup quarterback playing in this game.

Their head coach talks shit about Ron Rivera. Ron Rivera team loves the play for them. They've been motivated by him all year. Again, for a team that lost their starting quarterback, week one, or I don't even think it was week one. It might have been before the season fits went down that injury. Pretty amazing what they've done this year, Washington. I'm looking at two teams that one is completely quit on their head coach.

They know the coach is gone. Washington, I know Rivera's going to be back. I know that this team is, they're bad, but they're not one of the worst five teams in football. So you're giving me still seven points against Jake Fromm and this Giants offense that, what they put up, negative 10 yards passing last week, something insane like that. I'm going to keep fade them. I'm going to take a team that's the team that has not quit yet come week 18. That'll be like one of my things for this final week.

That's, this is the biggest one. You're literally looking at a team that is straight quit. The Giants have quit. They have not played hard in three weeks. So nothing changed. Still like Washington. Yeah, Joe Judge has clearly had a little bit of a meltdown this past week. He called out the Washington football team for fighting on the sidelines,

refused to meet with the Washington media to sort of discuss it and answer questions about it. There's no doubt in my mind. Ron Rivera is using this all to build motivation for one last stand for the Washington football team against a division arrival and embarrass them a little bit. So, yeah, I agree. I like the Washington football team here. Jags plus 15 and a half. So let me read you some of those stats that Stuckey had on his podcast this morning

because I thought they were really good and very specific about the Jags. Look, you and I talk about this. The Colts haven't won in Jacksonville and forever. That's my favorite stat, whatever it was, 2014 or 2015, M1. Yeah. I'm going to read some of the stats that I listened to on the Action Network podcast with Chris Raybon and Stuckey talking about the Jags as big dogs against the Colts. because it was specific to this game.

I mentioned a couple of them in the Texans, but it's very specific to this game. In addition to the Colts, not having won in Jacksonville in like seven years. Inflation on must-win teams, like the Colts in this spot. Bookmakers know the public is automatically assuming teams that have something to play for will come in and be more motivated the teams that don't have anything to play for. Since 2003, teams that are in a must-win spot are 16 and 26. 38% against the spread.

Faves of more than a field goal, 10 and 22, 31% against the spread. If you need a bigger sample size, since 1980, these teams are 40% against the spread. The Texans obviously fit this spot as well. But this feels like if you're going to bet the Jags, one last time, this might be your best bet.

Yeah. And we've seen the money coming in, the pro money coming in on the Jaguars. Is that the biggest pro-vers show game on the board? No, not even close. That to me just felt like it would be a pro game where I could see the money coming in on the Jaguars. I just can't see any tickets coming in on the Jaguars. It feels like one out of every 10 better would bet the Jax. That's how much more bets are going to be on the Colts. So I'm right there with him. I feel like we're getting three, four points or free points just

because of what you just said that everyone just is like, okay, the Colts need this game. They need it to make the playoffs. Let me put them in my 13 point teaser, do whatever. So they just, just inflate this line all you up to, what is it, 15, 15 and a half. That's way too many points. Like I talked last year. I think I said I made this game 11. I moved to the 12th. There might be a couple starters out for this Jaguars team on defense. Still, too many points. If it's over two touchdowns, I have to take this with the Jaguars. I hate doing it too. They're awful. They lost by 50 points last week. I would love to hear from stuck what that's that. It's a team that loses by 50 points, what they do against the following week.

We saw last week, Washington football team. They lost by 50, whatever it was, the Cowboys. They showed up, they covered. Obviously, they're a much better and much more motivated team than the Jaguars. We're getting two touchdowns, though. It's two touchdowns. It's gross, but like Chad just said, this is something mathematical we have to do. The two biggest pros Joe's games, which we're going to get to.

One of them is the Bills and the Jets. The Bills are 16 and a half point favorites. We circled it on Tuesday, loving the Bills. and the bills are getting all the money and the Jets are getting all the tickets. Rare, rare time where the money is coming in on the massive favorite and the public is backing a huge, huge dog. I think I'm off a little bit on that line too. I had it at 20.

Scary, it's going the other way. I think it's down to 16 in a lot of books. So I inflated that. Maybe I'm giving too much value to this Bill's team and not giving enough respect to the Jets. But it just felt like it was such a position that it's just a bad spot. for this Jets team coming off a really close loss where Zach Wilson played flawless and we've seen it time and time again this kid he'll have a game like that in the next week he'll completely lay an egg now he's going up to the frigid cold buffalo i don't really see how this jet's team

is going to be moving the ball on this bill's team and like again the bills are in playoff mode we've seen it the bills last couple weeks they've been in playoff mode they had a little bit of a letdown game against Atlanta and what happened they came on the second half and the absolutely dominated Atlanta and every facet of the field. Dominated them. I don't think Atlanta scored a point in the second half. So I get why the public is loving the Jets because, again, they covered for us last week against Tampa Bay. It feels like a trap. I'll give you the only comfort is the fact of the lines moving down, maybe the bookmakers are saying, think of the same thing. It's like,

okay, maybe we undervalued this Jets team too much, but it only is, it's only moved by half a point. So it's not that much movement for what Chad just said, all those betting tickets coming on the Jets. I'm still on the bills. I just don't know if it'll be one of my four or five biggest bets this Sunday. The other one that we got to talk about, the Rams and the Niners. Tickets on the Niners, money on the Rams. As the week's gone along and the more we've heard about Jimmy, it's not going to be Jimmy.

It does not look like Jimmy's going to be able to play. His injury seems like it's pretty serious. We rewatch that. He was sticking in with Trey Lance. Shanahan is what shit does I love to give the guy. We always talk about I do think he's one of the best offensive minds of football. They have three points in the first half. And the second half, he completely changed up what he was doing with this offense with Tray Lance.

Tray Lance, my first thought was this kid's first initial reads would be to always pull it down and run. He was going through reads. He had literally really smart pocket awareness in that second half, taking long shots when you could take it. Whenever there's stuff underneath, you would take that. Just intelligent, very intelligent for what I was not. Again, I thought Tray Lance was just going to be one of these athletes had come in. First read, not there, pulls it down, runs it. Because he is a really gifted athlete.

athlete. He's not. He's way smarter than I thought he was going to be. But watching that tape, it could be really bad for this 49ers team against the Rams. The biggest thing I saw was that Houston team, if you had a comparable quarterback and receivers, you are going to pass all over this 49ers team. Their secondary is bad. So looking up the matchups, I looked on the defensive side for this Rams team going up against our front line of the 49ers. He's going to have a lot of pressure. He didn't have any real pressure in his face that whole Houston game. No real pressure on him. That's going to change dramatically. So as much as I like him taking this time, making all of his reads, it's not going to be as easy it was against Houston. I told you, I thought this line should be

six. The fact that it's still, what is it moves up to four and a half now? A little bit, yeah. We've seen some books at five. I still think you're getting value on this Rams team. I thought coming in that Tennessee would be, I mean, four hours would be more of a public team. that's not that crazy to hear the public's on that, just because in a division matchup like this, people are looking at this Rams team, they're saying themselves, Stafford hasn't played well in weeks.

He really hasn't. If you go through what Stafford's done these last couple weeks, he just has not played well. But this is a perfect spot for him to get right. This is one of the worst secondaries in all football. So at home, like we said, we're fading Trey Lance on the road,

making his first road start. I love it that it's still under a touchdown. I do think you're still getting good value on this Rams team. Yeah. Totally agree. I bet him at four. It's creeping back up. So you say get the value. I say get it now because you want to get the best of the number. And four is a key number. So get it as soon as you possibly can. I want to make sure we talk about the games that we talked about on Tuesday. Talked about the dolphins quite a bit. So real quick on the dolphins, I want to make that our big balls better the week. Big balls better the week. is a game that very few will be betting with us. And I touched on that last week.

Now I'm looking at the action app and seeing how much money, all the bets, everything coming on the Patriots. This is truly no one's betting this Dolphins team. The fact that it's moved now to six and a half, the money and tickets have only gone up on the Patriots. More people have come in on the Patriots

because I think they're getting a better number. The book knows what they're doing. They know what they're doing, Chad. They're laying a little trap here. So again, the amount of pushback I got as well, it made me really like the dolphins even more. The fact that it's reverse line moving, even though we're off no information other than

than professional money is coming on the dolphins. That's the best. So still love it at six and a half. Still think you're getting above a key number, which I talk about all the time. I think six is a key number. Still take that dolphins a six and a half. It's a trap.

No doubt. New England's probably going to end up winning this game. It's Bill Belichick. They ain't going to be blowing them out. If they win this game, it's going to be about two or three points. This is just like the Eagles last week where the Eagles were getting all that smoke, went up their ass. and they squeaked out a four-point win.

It feels like we're in the same kind of scenario here with this New England team. We're buying low on the dolphins after they had a blowout loss. We're selling the Patriots after a big win at home. Now going on the road. I love this position. Big balls. We're on an island. Nobody wants to bet the dolphins with us except professional betters.

The other game I want to talk about quickly, you mentioned the Falcons and the Falcons were our foxhole. It's creeping up a little bit. It got down to four. now it's up to four and a half. A couple things for me. Number one, the line movement on this game has been massive. It opened at Falcons minus one and a half. Now it's up to Falcons plus four and a half. The Saints are getting way too much credit when they're playing a quarterback who's grading out to be amongst the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL this year. Cam Newton,

Zach Wilson, Mike Glennon, Tassam Hill. Those are the four worst quarterbacks. in the NFL this year. So you're telling me that this guy's going to go on the road. And he's going to win by more than five points against a Falcons offense that I know they're going to be missing Kyle Pitts, but they are much, much better than a lot of the teams the Saints have faced throughout the year. And their defense is serviceable enough against a quarterback like Tassum Hill, who is really just dreadful.

it's amazing that they were able to do anything in any of these games. So to me, like early in the season, the Saints were favored by six at home. Now they're favored by nearly five on the road. There's a 10 and a half, 11 point swing. That's what was so bizarre to me. That was the first thing I thought of. When I saw that number, it's like, I get it. Alanis had injuries.

Like we talked about, they might be out pits. They've been down Riddley. The mismatch at course. quarterback. I mean, Matt Ryan, he, as much as I wanted to shit on Atlanta for passing a quarterback, because I thought it'd be great, they drafted a quarterback in that draft, let him sit, learn from Matt Ryan this year, then they can make him the start of the next year. Matt Ryan is probably going to be the start next year. That guy is, I believe on pro football focus, they had him at number four for big time throws this year.

So he was only behind Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady. Like, that's the kind of class he's in without weapons. He's been down weapons all season. I know Cordell Patterson's been incredible for them, but he missed a bunch of games too. So I'm right there with you, Chad. Again, I have regret making this my Scrutra-Lept pick just because I'm losing a little bit of confidence in this Atlanta team as the week goes along hearing. The more I read about, man, across the board, they are one of the worst teams. If Matt Ryan wasn't on their team, they project out to be 2 and 14 right now. That's how important he's been to them as a starter this season.

So I just Matt Ryan at home last game. We're getting four and a half against like you just said, the 28th worst quarterback in football this season and Taysom Hill. I got to take Matt Ryan. I'll take them every time. I'll take the points every time. I still believe if this stays above three, you're getting a good number in Atlanta.

This is a field goal kind of game. I don't know which side's going to win, but I'm going to be on Atlanta, Atlanta's money line, just because that's where the value is. You're getting free points in my opinion just because of what Chad just said. Saints are playing for a playoff position, the public knows that they're going to bet them up. Elena's playing for nothing.

People think they're just going to throw in the towel. This will be a walkover for the Saints team. So it's not surprising. This is, I mean, if you look at the action, the action app, it's kind of been split. We've seen it now, the more money's, since that pit news has come out, more money is starting to come in on the Saints team.

So if you get the four and a half, I like it. You might be able to get a five. If this line keeps going the direction, I think it might. What was I just going to say? I totally forgot. Oh, we have been in Atlanta Falcons podcast all season long. It's totally appropriate that the last week of the year, one of our biggest bets, one of your Scrutulette picks,

is going to be Atlanta plus four and a half. Maybe it gets a little bit higher. I hope it does for everybody. The last game I want to talk about, we've covered a lot of them. But the last game I want to talk about the Chargers and the Raiders, It's going to be the Sunday night game. Who knows what's going to happen?

You had a little bit of an opinion on Tuesday. Has anything changed? I didn't have been in Las Vegas. Just the fact they're at home. I've been disappointed by the Chargers team all season. They started out so good. And they just faded. And we've seen it their run defense is what's kind of held them back all year.

They've just had moments where they'll put up 14 points really quick this Chargers team. then Herbert will just go three and out, three and out. The other team will get the ball. They'll get a couple points, and then they'll just keep wearing out the defense of the charges running the ball. So looking at it on paper, I'm shocked this number of state at three.

That honestly feels like that's the biggest giveaway to me. I knew the public could be coming on the Chargers, so I was assuming the book would move this at three and a half. They haven't. So that should be a warning sign to everyone. A standalone game, we know the money would be coming down the Chargers. The fact that they haven't moved it makes me like the Raiders even more.

I want to tell people to bet it, but I'm worried I'm going to tell people to do that, and then it's going to get the three and a half because we talk all the time. That's such a key number. So I like Vegas. I like taking their money line here too, but if Waller gets cleared, you think that's line drops? I think it would drop, right? Yeah.

I've actually seen it. I've seen it at two and a half. So that right there, like, I'm just thinking about it out loud. You might have to take that three because if Waller gets cleared, I got him worth a point to that team. So to me, it will drop down to two. You can see a move even more if he gets cleared.

So, In fact, in some places, it's at two and a half right now. Yeah. Two and a half minus one 15. Yep, you got me. I would take the Raiders now then. I'm trying to get greeting, get to three and a half, but apparently three is the best we're going to get in the spot. So, God, I hate that.

But that makes sense because when I'm thinking about how loud, if Waller comes back, that's going to move that line. So the word is, he's going to be back that he's been practicing. Looks like that's the information is getting out early. People are betting that number down. So, yeah, if you're hearing this now, I'd take that three. Got it. The college football championship is here to celebrate Fandual Sportsbook is hooking new customers up with 30 to 1 enhanced odds on either team to win.

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the dolphins plus six and a half big balls. We still like the Jags plus 15 and a half. We like the bills minus 16 and a half. We like the Texans plus 10 and a half. The Rams minus four, maybe even up to five. The Falcons plus four and a half, but you might be able to wait on that.

We'll stick with the Panthers plus eight, but that was based on some rumors that don't look like they're going to be happening. Grab the Raiders now at plus two and a half while you can. I forgot to mention on sharp calls. I did make a little bet on Denver. A pro group has come in. They bet Denver against the Chiefs.

I hate betting Drew Locke. I know Teddy's out. They put them on injured reserve, so his season is done. So it is Drew Locke. I trust these guys. They're legit. They're reasoning behind betting Denver is sound.

They think that this is a look-ahead game for Kansas City. Kansas City is going to be overlooking Denver. They know all they got to do is win. Andy Reid is going to take his foot off the gas come the second half. Denver at home, you're getting 10 and a half. Take it, I guess. But, I mean, for Saturdays it goes, I'd say I bet more on the Cowboys for Saturday compared to this Denver team.

But I just want to put it out there just in case people are rendering what we're doing Saturday. I have a little bet on Denver. I have much more bet on Dallas. Mike McCarthy has said that his starters will play. The Eagles really have nothing to play for. Their position is negligible in terms of ability to change in the playoffs. They got a ton of COVID. So it's really just going to be Dallas trying to, you know, stay sharp.

And I can see that line moving. Like I can see you get in the seven down by Saturday morning. it's up to eight, eight or nine. Yeah. It's going to be bet up by the public. Cowboys are one of the most public teams. Chad, I've had a bunch of people keep reaching out about this end of the year review that you and Matt Mitchell like to bring up.

Yeah. They wanted me just to mention you guys, there's only one person here who didn't miss a single show all of 2021. That person's me, Chad. So I'm going to go ahead and skip that review and just say to you guys, do better next year. All of 20, all of 2021? Yeah.

Yeah, try to find it. day. I didn't even know that either. I had fans point that out, Chad. The loyal listeners. Interesting. I hate that he's right about that. I was on vacation. I would still check it. Yeah, yeah, I remember a lot of it. There was a lot of adversity and you never, you never asked off the show. It's probably your worst quality. Well, he also, he had COVID like every week. Yeah, it's so true. At least seven times. Keep showing up. You've joined from at least three locations. Yeah, it sucks. I mean, we'll put this in the review, but this might get him, Let's make it above a D.

Well, our review process is minus, check, minus, check, check plus, plus. I can't make corporate America does these kind of things. I just made that up. Because once upon a time at ESPN and Disney, that was the review process. And my first year at ESPN, I got married in June. I had started in April, the magazine, got married in June. So I had my honeymoon planned, took off. And then right before we closed the NFL preview issue, I had an attack of appendicitis,

didn't leave the office for two days to continue to close the issue, but then had emergency appendectomy surgery and was out for 10 days after that. So my review at the end of the year was, you know, you missed like two weeks in June. I was like, for my honeymoon. Then my boss said, you also were out for 10 days in September. And I was like, for an emergency appendectomy. So for attendance, I got a check minus. Approve it once again, who's the real man here? Again, I never missed one show all of 2021. Chad missed three weeks when he had his dream job.

I think we should pivot to an entirely emoji-based review system. I would give Simon the face with the straight line mouth. No, no reaction. I also wrote a cover story for ESP in the magazine two days after breaking my back in a cab accident. Holy shit. What the fuck? your 30 sound wild, Chad. The saying in my family growing up, stifle it.

Emotion doesn't fucking matter. You stifle it and you go to work. I miss that generation. I am that generation, son. You're not. You're the worst generation ever. Let's do some money line parlays. I want to put Denver in our money line around Robin,

but I know no one that listens to the show is going to bet it. So there's no point of going out Denver. First, we'll start off with the Bengals, getting six points against Case Keenum. take that money line, put in the round robin. Detroit, we talked about it. We think that's one of those where the value will be on the live line. The Green Bay apparently is going to start their starters,

and then they're going to take them out throughout the game. Still like the money line. If you've got to get in the round robin early, it's up to plus four at some books now. Take that value. Take that money line round robin. For Chad, we will put Houston Texans in there. Chad loves that one because I'm not putting the Jaguars.

Again, I'm betting their money line for a penny. No chance. Am I putting that in a money line around Robbins? I just do not have any faith in the Jaguars. They're awful. So again, we have the Bengals, the Lions, Houston. Still like Pittsburgh. I know that's the public dog this week.

The public money's coming on Pittsburgh. We're not taking the points. We're taking the money line. We're just hoping for a miracle against a banged-up Ravens team. Lamar still has not practiced this week. Again, a backup quarterback going against that defense in Pittsburgh. How can we not take Pittsburgh's money line in this position? And I guess to cap it off,

everyone knows I love the dolphins. I love the Falcons. So for me, those two would be a nice bookend. If you want to end it on the Raiders, Sunday night, that's also fun. But I rather just get over with the 4 p.m. and worry about that Vegas game by itself. So to me, I'd bookend it with the Dolphins, Atlanta, one of those two. Dolphins, to me, better value just because you're getting extra points with them at home.

But love them both, both home dogs, divisional matchups. We take that every time. I love the Falcons and the dolphins together. Did I tell you I got a new phone, Chad? I'm excited for you. They only had red. Luckily, I have a Philly sticker, so that kind of helps out. But I'm not a fan of red phones.

You're such a fucking John. I heard the most Philly conversation that they made me think of you. This one guy I was young at this other guy and the guy said, fuck you, you fucking fucks. It's so good. The Dolphins Atlanta. Together is plus 821 on the action app. Laying on. Let's roll.

Let's roll. All right. We've done our games. We've done our money line parlay. We've done our big balls bed of the week. Last regular season show of the year, Chad. Last regular season show of the year. Congrats to you.

Congrats to me. Congress to you on perfect attendance. Congrats to Matt Mitchell. Even Matt Mitchell didn't even have perfect attendance. I did two edits from a pediatric emergency. room and I still feel totally ashamed that I missed one episode for the holidays. I hate you, Simon. It's your lack of commitment will be discussed in your year-end review, Matt.

Understood. Straight-faced emoji. All right. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast Network for Simon Hunter for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. Download us. Rate us.

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