The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 7 Best Bets

Episode Date: October 23, 2021

With an action-packed NFL Sunday quickly approaching, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to narrow down their favorite against the spread picks. Do the Eagles have enough to squeeze out another narrow cover? Is the Washington line a trap? Is now the time to buy low on the 49ers? All this and so much more, including their survivor pool pick of the week. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I am chief content officer of the Action Network. We are a sports media business that focuses entirely on serving the ever-growing and interested sports betting universe. Research, data, analysis, picks, all of it available for free in the award-winning Action Network app. One of those experts that we feature in the app in our analysis all throughout the Action Network universe, my BFF, my compadre, my companion, professional better Simon Hunter. Welcome to the show. Did we not talk about New Jersey cross on $1 billion in bets last month?

New Jersey crossed $1 billion in betting handle in the month of September, the first time any state has done that. I'm assuming 80 to 90% of that is from you. Fantastic. Congratulations on being so flush and having such a fat bank roll. it is an astonishing number. You're right to bring it up. It's the first time that's ever happened.

Nevada has never done it. Nevada is the immature market. Been around for 50 years. New Jersey's been around for three. Yeah. I like to say, Vegas is the amateur New Jersey. You know,

if you want to be a real sports better, you got to get to New Jersey. And I got laughed out the room and I said that three years ago. Now, look at us, man. A billion dollars on one month bet. Las Vegas never could. You know what's interesting.

Years and years ago, we've often talked about Scooch, Bob Scootie, who is a bookmaker for Boyd Gaming and used to be the bookmaker for the Starost Hotel, which is part of the Boyd Gaming property. I wrote my book, The Odds, Scooch about guys who've been on sports for a living in Las Vegas. Scooch was a primary character in that. He was the co-host of this podcast before Simon had him eliminated. And he once told me for a story. I was in Las Vegas doing a story for E60 on TV for ESPN.

And I asked him, what happens if sports betting is legalized? Is that good for Vegas or bad for Vegas? And he said it's great because there's going to be more people betting, more people understanding it, and they're all going to want to come to Vegas to do it even more. Because Vegas is like Disneyland for betting. And you kind of just said that. Like, while New Jersey has clearly overtaken Vegas as sort of the sports betting capital of the world,

Vegas is still the place people want to go to like visit and do it with friends. It's like it is, it is like the Disneyland of betting. Yeah, New Jersey is all business. I think 900 million of our bets were online. Like that's just different. That's very different than Vegas. And we don't have some giant pool bar outside sports book. We're like lacking a lot of those things.

We have like these little corner office sports books in New Jersey. So it's definitely different where you kind of have to go to the books in Vegas to make these bets and get money down. New Jersey, a lot of these people just do it from their couch and they never go. They've never even been inside a sports book. So it is much different than it used to be. Well, sports betting is now online in Connecticut. There are three books in which you can bet because Connecticut fucked it up and couldn't actually do it the right way. So there's only three books as opposed to the dozens.

of books, you can bat down in New Jersey. One of those books is Fanduel, and who is our sponsor, and I say this not because they are our sponsor, but I signed up for all three books. Fandual, I was able to get verified as being a resident of the state and being located in the state, literally 60 seconds. The other book took me about the full day and a lot of tries. another book, 48 hours later, still not able to bet from the state of Connecticut because their software cannot identify that I am in Connecticut. So I have now had to submit documentation that I'm in the state of Connecticut. And again, you just said you only have three books in New Jersey.

I think we're up to 19 or 18 books. It's pretty much, I would say half of them are quick like you just talked about. And I have a couple of books. I'm still not processed and it's probably been like a year since they were opened in Jersey. So it is some companies are just really slow with it. Other guys are they want your money. They're quick. They'll get you in fast.

It's pretty amazing. Pretty amazing. All right, we got a lot to get to. On Tuesday, we talked about the entire slate. We narrow it down to six, seven games that we really like that we will then make our five best on Sunday. We got to talk about a survivor pick. We have to get to our big balls, bed of the week. I will remind everybody of our scoge roulette picks from the other day.

But as always, your professional betting colleagues love to call you after the Tuesday podcast and say, I agree with you on this take. I don't agree with you on this take. You're crazy. Sometimes it gets in your head and makes you rethink things. And then it influences what we do on Thursday. We're going to start with sharp calls. Hello.

Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring. Telephone rang. Somebody saying, baby, what you doing? Yeah, quick calls this week. So Matt Mitchell probably posted it 4 p.m. I got multiple calls by 5.30, 515, which is like 2.15, 2 o'clock,

Las Vegas time. So my one buddy- I love that we have avid listeners who are listening as soon as the show is dropped. Again, these are people that do nothing all day. So you shouldn't be that shocked. Like a lot of my guys I work with, their days don't start until 7 p.m. So I'm not shocked at all. But, yeah, first thing, he says, he goes, how are you taking Green Bay after last week?

You got to take Washington football team. You love this number at nine. You love it at nine and a half. And he just kept going on and on. I love, I still love Greenback. Still think we're getting a great number. I think professionals are kind of getting trapped here where they're seeing a high number. They're just like me and you.

We think Green Bay is overrated. They're not as good as they've been this year. Like they've played above where they should be. But when you start diving in the numbers, it's like, you know, they've actually been a little unlucky. They're one of the worst teams in the red zone statistically this year. Playing against a Washington football team that, man, there's no down in it now. They're bad. Like their D-line is not as good as we thought it was.

Their secondary is legit awful. So, you know, he was giving me a hard time saying we should be off Green Bay. Nothing's changed. I still love it. Still love it at seven and a half. It feels just like last week with the Rams and the Jail. Giants. These professional groups are coming in on this dog. They're thinking they're getting a good number. They're bending all the way down. In the end, they might be just giving us a better number.

So I have no issues taking Green Bay, putting them in a teaser. And I get their argument. It's the same reason I kind of like the Texans this week. It's a nice look-ahead spot. So the Cardinals and Green Bay play each other on Thursday night. People are assuming they're going to kind of overlook both these teams are playing to get ready for Thursday night. I just can't see that with Green Bay at home. And it's hard to see the Cardinals. who were undefeated, just laying an egg. So it's both these times where I hear why they're saying it's a look-ahead spot. I just can't get on board with that with these two teams. You love this game so much.

And you have made it. I mentioned Scutte Rolette. Obviously, Scutrullet, for those who are new to the podcast, I mentioned Bob Scoochie earlier. Scoch and I, when he was the co-host of the podcast, before Simon had him killed, we used to do this head-to-head matchups, Scooch Rulet. I choose a game.

He choose a game. So we brought it back in on. of Scooch. And this week, Scoot Rulette, Simon chose Green Bay. I chose the Eagles as underdogs against the Raiders. This is the most interesting game on the board right now because when I listened to Raybon and Stuckey in the Action Network podcast this morning and they were going through their Sunday six pack, they loved Washington. A, the line was nine and a half. You mentioned the line has now moved down to seven and a half. They had it rated at seven. They made some really good points about the Washington football team.

And that while the D-line hasn't performed as well as it did last year, it's still pretty good. It's the pass rush has been strong. It just hasn't been getting into the quarterback. It's the defensive backfield that is a mess. And that's what's causing the problems for the Washington football team. And then you think about the Packers. And two years ago, Rayvon did amazing stories about Aaron Rogers and how he was continuing

to perform worse and worse against the pass rush. obviously rectified that last year, but this year, there are three quarterbacks worse against the rush right now than Aaron Rogers. Tua, Gino Smith, Justin Fields. So we're talking about a team that does have a look-ahead spot that to me still has some fluky wins. Like there were some plays in that Bears game

that it didn't need to go that way. It's making me a little nervous about this. It puts me in a quandary because I'm starting to, to favor the Washington football team. It feels like a overrated, underrated spot. I got the guys in Vegas calling you, sharp calls, but you love this so much. You've made it. Your Scout Roulette pick. How can I not back my BFF and want this to be in our top five? Don't step into the trap. It's just a trap. Antonio Gibson, their number one running back. He's hurt. Terry McLaren, their number one receiver. He's hurt. Curtis Samuel, their number two receiver. He's hurt.

Heineke is not a good quarterback. So, if it was fits and all their guys were healthy, I told you, I'd love Washington. And this is a great position. You literally got the backup quarterback with no starters on offense. So if you're down 14 points to Green Bay, you're going to be praying to even get in field goal range with this Washington team. I just don't see how they move the ball. So I just in a normal situation, yeah, I would be with them in Washington.

I just feel like they're overlooking the most obvious things that this Washington team doesn't have any offensive weapons to stay in this game. So again, I feel great about my greenback position. I'm happy now that it's down to seven and a half seven. At seven and a half seven, it starts to feel much better to me. I wonder if professional betters other than you, look at this at seven and half seven and say, oh, I'm taking the Packers. Yeah, I mean, they took it at 10.

They took it a nine and a half. Maybe they will flip over, but they didn't last week. Like, they kept betting the Giants. They bet it down a lot of offshore books that got down to seven by kickoff. So we'll see what they'll do this week. but I feel like they're stepping in another trap. Well, look, this was a big one for us. So we can check that one off the list.

Another game that we talked a lot about, Chiefs and Titans, Chiefs on the road, visiting the Titans off a short week at five and a half. We didn't have a strong opinion on this. This to us was a, let's just make sure we watch it kind of game. Has anything changed for you? Yeah, we were, I mean, we were going to wait and see if this keep getting bed up because that'd be great if we could get this at six. And now it's going the other way, kind of.

Some books have it down to four and a half now. So still the same thing. We like the Tennessee team that can run on this Chiefs team, but it's this classic game. Whoever is the ball last feels like they're going to win. So, you know, I'm going to take the points. I'll take the money line on Tennessee just because that's where the value is. But this is the definition of a coin flip game. There's so many injuries in this secondary to this Tennessee team.

no one's going to be able to stop Travis Kelsey in this matchup. So if they can ball control it with Derek Henry, you know, it's going to be second and three all game for this Tennessee offense. And Ryan Taino can just make these short completions and step up. It's hard not to take Tennessee here. They just everything slants towards them where they're the home team. They have the run game that can be consistent. We've seen it with Mahomes.

He makes incredible plays. He also messes up a decent amount. If you mess up against his Tennessee team, they're going to capitalize on it. So I still love the number of four and a half. It's hard to say it's one of my favorite five, but just because of all the biweeks, it might end up being new on Sunday. We might end up taking this one just because, again,

there's just so many ugly games this week. It's hard to just take big favorites. So we'll see. You don't care that Taylor Luan is out and Julio Jones is probably out? Not ideal, but at the same time, the biggest concern for me is just doesn't matter for Derek Henry. and it doesn't. You take Taylor the Juan out

and you replace him with the other guy and the run game didn't change at all. It stayed the same. So it apparently isn't not that big of a deal. We're talking about a Kansas City Chiefs team

that literally has the worst run defense in football. So no, that doesn't move the needle for me. Okay. All right. Fair enough. I don't think I want to put in our top five. It feels risky.

All these games are going to feel risky to you. Yeah, well, By the way, you make it sound like I'm some, you know, scared adult living in Connecticut. Do you know the risks I've taken in my life? I do. You literally left the hard city of Chicago to come out east. A, A, I got married. There is no bigger risk for anybody than making that commitment.

You don't know how it's going to go. you don't know how the relationship is going to evolve. You don't know how the person you married is going to evolve. Lies. Getting married is playing it safe, Chad. Then you have kids. That, that, getting, having kids is a risk. Then I left ESPN to go watch this fucking thing.

Like, come on. Because I'm afraid like, because I'm anxious about a game. Please. Please. I did bet the Broncos plus three. Got ahead of that because we had a little conversation about it on two. Down to one now. I know, right?

Crazy. All right. The other game that we talked about, this was our Simon says bet, which was the Bengals. You said, wait. You said, let the, it was at six, six and a half. I think it was at six and a half. You said, wait, it actually got that down to six. Now it's back up to six and a half.

I think I still love the Bengals here. Yeah, we still love. We still think it's three points of too much value. We talked about, like, again, what would this line be of Cincinnati beat Green Bay? what would this line be if Ravens had lost the game to the Lions or lost to the Chiefs? It would just too many little bounces are deciding this line right now where like we talked about, it feels like it's three points overvalued. And this is kind of a classic line from Las Vegas.

They're saying, okay, Bengals, we have you plus a thousand win the north. Prove it to us. Win this game. If they win this game, that's going to go from plus a thousand to what? Plus 200, plus 300, Chad. This is going to drop way down because the Ravens, they're driving. in the bus right now. They're leading this division. It's hard to not take. If you like that number, if you like the bangles like we do, you have to sprinkle some on them to win the north.

Like this is the classic, we take this number. We're taking the money line as well. You got to put some on for them to win the north. So nothing's changed here. Still like the number. I wish it was at seven. Don't mind it at six and a half. That's a key number like we talked about. So this, this feels like an easy no brainer. This will be one of our five. Yeah, I'm going to have to, uh, as I sit here in Connecticut, I might have to hit that six and a half right now on the podcast. Chad Millman is making a bet. He's not scared. I'll tell you that right now.

Live bets legally. Look at Chad. Live betting legally in Connecticut. Simon Hunter. A game that we didn't go deep into, but the line has moved into a different position. Jets Patriots. Now it's a seven point Jets underdog. Like I talked about it, it's disgusting, but I have to take the Jets, but do I feel confident about it?

Not at all. Gross, gross, gross, gross game. But we have New England with a bunch of injuries coming off a bad loss, playing a Jets team that's coming off a buy. Kind of feels like a little too easy. That's, again, it's making me scary because I really like this number for the Jets. I don't know, Chad. I feel like I'm not going to make you put it in just because I'm like, every time I make you put the jets in, they lose.

But it's a smart number plus seven. So we'll see where it ends up in our five picks. But if it's six and a half, I probably wouldn't do it. But if it was seven, I would think about it. The Patriots could end up being an interesting survivor pick, which we are also going to get to today. We got to, we got to choose somebody. I was looking at, well, you know what, I want to hold that. hold that thought. I want to hold that thought. The next game that we want to talk about.

This one is so ugly. So ugly. Atlanta Falcons visiting the Miami Dolphins. The dolphins are two and a half point dogs right now. We love the dolphins here. We just have to. And we don't, how do we feel though now with all this drama going on with two on Watson? Like that, that's a lot. Like he's getting asked about it. at a conference. Does that change at all, how you feel about this matchup? Should it? It makes me a little nervous. Like, this could be the last, you know,

not the last time you play something because no one knows with deals with Watson if you'll even play this season. But it's never good when your management and your team's kind of given up on you, already looking the other way. And we like this matchup for the simple fact that this was a great bounce back spot and Atlanta's favorite, which I don't know why Atlanta Falcons ever used. favorite. Maybe we know why now. Maybe it's because this Miami team is that bad and they're kind of a dumpster fire. But nothing's changed. I still bet Miami. I have Miami in a couple teasers. So

it is one of those. I'm going to be on it. But it gave me a little pause with all the Watts and stuff because that's just a distraction that a bad team like Miami might not be able to overcome. All right. All right. There were also stories about has Florida's lost the team? Do players, our other players on the trading block. You never know with these things. It's hard to know like how quickly it can go downhill. You know, last night, Twitter was a buzz because Jalen Johnson, the cornerback for the Chicago Bears, was fine because he showed up to a meeting at 816 instead of 815.

And he got an official letter from Matt Nagy and he posted it on Twitter. That's crazy too. $2,800, one minute late. One minute late. So look, just get there at 8 fucking 15. Like, it's not that hard. Like, I don't mind Matt Nagy having the rule you'd be there at 815. If I had that rule and someone showed up at 816, am I going to find him?

Probably not. But the rule is the rule. I don't mind him holding him accountable and deciding that when he was going to be a hard ass. I don't know what the situation is. that led up to that. Has he been late three times? Has he gotten warnings? We're five people late and like Nagy is just pissed. The fact that Jalen Johnson posted it on social makes me think Matt Nagy has lost that team. You don't do that when you're afraid of the coach. You don't do that when you respect the coach. You don't do that when the locker room is full of bright light chemistry.

You do that when you've lost the team. I wonder if that's the same case in Miami right now. And like there are some nice things to say about Matt Ryan. I don't want to bet this team. But so maybe it's a pass because of all the other turmoil. I think all things considered, the dolphins are the right side. Yeah. Matt Ryan's played well his last two starts.

Some people were saying that to us. So we didn't talk about how good Atlanta's played their last two games. They played well their last two games. Matt Ryan's throwing the ball, I think, for over 300 yards in both. starts, but he still doesn't look right to me. Also, they did play against the Jets. Right. They played the Jets and the Washington football team, which they lost to at home. You don't get to win Super Bowls by playing well against the worst teams. You did promise this would be an Atlanta Falcons podcast, by the way. I was lost. I was a lost man at that time.

I don't know what the hell happened. I don't know what you were thinking. The Eagles, my Scutte Rulet pick, they are currently, let me just. just triple check here. Three point underdogs. The line moving in their direction. We got a pro's Joe's game here. Still love the Eagles here. This is probably our big ball is better the week, buddy.

Big ball! More people on Twitter hated this pick of all of our picks. They do not like betting the Eagles. They feel like we got lucky last week covering by half a point. We played the numbers here, baby. Yeah, the right side is the winning side. Thank you, Scooch. That was just a smart number.

It's same with this week. At three and a half, this is a small. number with the Eagles. And we love what this Las Vegas team did for last week, such a letdown spot. And now they're playing a team that's coming off extended rest because they put on Thursdays and A in this Eagles team. How do we not bet this? Again, if you, if you like Las Vegas, take them first half. This Eagles team's consistently started out slow this year. That may be that you're in. But for us, full game, I love the Eagles at plus three. Well, also look, like the, the, we felt this way about the Raiders last week.

everyone hated it, right? We sent that out on Twitter. Everyone on Twitter hated that Raiders pick. To me, this feels like a smash spot for the Eagles. And look, the stats are indicating that. It's an aggressively bet game according to the Action Network and app and Actionnetwork.com. I'm looking at the total bets. I'm looking at the betting percentages.

I'm looking at the money percentages. The bets are coming in on the Raiders. The money's coming in on the Eagles. that tells you the professionals like the Eagles. There's reverse line movement here. Like the bets are coming in on the Raiders and the line moved down from three and a half to three. All signals bet the Eagles. Don't even think about it.

Don't be sad. Don't think about it as a risk. It's the Eagles. You're going to bet them against the Raiders. It's the right spot. Yeah. And just play the numbers. Try not to think about the teams because if you do, you're going to get burned a lot of times.

Matt Mitchell, if you, if the Eagles lose and you, this and you throw it back in my face, I'm going to be so mad. Chad, I would never do that to you as your producer. But what I would do is use this as an opportunity to have a conversation with you using only totally out of context clips I have a view on my computer. For example, Chad, do you think we should do something like that? I like that idea. I think that's a really good idea.

Perfect. What is your philosophy for this podcast? Hit people in the fucking mouth, run it up their fucking throat. That's it. Okay. What do you think about me? Unconditionally, I love Matt Mitchell. Perfect.

What do you think about Simon? Fucking loser. And finally, what do you think about yourself? I don't even know what to say about that. No, really. What do you think about yourself? Chad is a dilf. Okay, perfect. So let's get back to the show.

A couple more games on our list here, Simon. One that I think is a little bit controversial. We liked the Colts plus three and a half against the Niners. That line is now four and a half. Money, this is another one. Money is on the Colts. Betts are on the Niners. Is it the Jimmy G effect?

Is Jimmy G? Is it like there are rumors that he's going to be one back playing? He's going to be back. There's a couple defensive backs coming back for the Niners. To me, there's always the Kyle Shanahan factor when he's at a little bit more time to prepare. I think there's a little bit of shine on the Colts because they've played well the past couple of weeks and Carson Wentz has looked better. But Paris Campbell out. T. Y. Houghton. Questionable.

He's down the receivers that made him look better the past couple of weeks. It's still not a very good rush defense. against a team that is going to find a way to run the ball. And then Chris Raybaum from the Action Network podcast, have these two system stats, which I know you're going to love. Are you ready? Since 2003, after week six, teams that have covered less than 30% of the time, which is the Niners, versus teams that are better than 500 against the spread,

which is the Colts, win at a 71% clip. And it's not even like a small sample size. This is based on more than 150 games since 2003. Number one. Number two, non-West Coast teams that go west for a prime time game. The West Coast team is 52, 29, and 6 since 2003. That's 64% against the spread. Two historical precedents that give me fear.

Yeah, it's scary trends. And we thought this line didn't look right. It feels like a trap because I just didn't get why this line was so high. So, ah, damn it, Chris. Maybe we don't, maybe this isn't one of our best five, but I don't know. I just love this number. It's like this kid Jonathan Taylor, like as much as I love Carson, it's also because of Jonathan Taylor, this kid's playing out of his mind for this Colts team.

Like every game, he's racking up 150 yards receiving or running. And I just don't see the 40-underers having that X weapon that can really counter that. So, you know, I talked early in the week. I still like the over. I'll still be on the Colts, but that's, that is scary. That's not, those aren't the trends you want to hear. So maybe this won't be our best five, but I'm still going to be on the Colts. Those aren't the trends you want to hear when you're thinking about like a team that's quarterbacked by Carson Wentz, who to me, it's like now Ryan.

You know, he was, he was great against the Colts and then, I mean, against the Ravens, but then kind of lost it. And then he blew up against a bad team the next week with most of his players back. And now he's not going to have those guys. I agree with you about Jonathan Taylor. He's turning into a top five running back. He'll be the guy next year that is like, got to get him in fantasy. Yep.

And I'll draft the number one overall and he'll be out for the rest of the year, just like McCaffrey. That's just how it goes. There's no doubt about it. And now a word from our friends at FandualSportsbook who want you to get the most out of every NFL game day. That's why they're giving everyone a $10 risk-free bet every week.

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1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-7777. Or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, at 1-800-2707-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-7-8-9 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. So the last game we want to talk about, Saints and the Seahawks. I think we still love the Saints here.

Saints are four and a half-point favorites. Lines moved up. Still like the Saints. I like their run defense against this Seattle team that looks like they need to run it, to get Gino going. Like they need to run it to have teams, have their linebackers suck up so Gino can just do play action paths.

Saints defense is still really good. They give up one of the lowest yards on the ground, lowest yards through the air. Only worry is the Saints offense, which has not been good at all this year. They had a whole biweek to get it right. Now they're playing against arguably one of the worst defenses in football

and the Seahawks. It just all points towards taking this Saints team. Because when I saw this line open, I was like, okay, I could see it being three. open three and a half got a bet all the way up to five and a half now it's down to what four and a half at fandle yeah so it feels like it's starting to get into where it should be and if you like if you're like me and you like the saints you're getting a good number here so i still have no issue taking the saints team it's scary because it is we are taking the saint on the road of winston which is

always like you're just one bad decision away from a pick six with winston but you have to trust Sean Payton in this number and think, okay, he'll have the offensive right and they have a good enough defense to really slow down Gino Smith. This is a good number. We have a little bit of a spot here because we don't have that many games. I think we love the Bengals at six and a half. I think we love the Eagles at three.

What is the contest number on the Packers right now? Sheesh. Denver is still three and a half in here. Do it. That's taste. We got to do it. All right. Putting that one in.

Throw a bangles in. So Green Bay is minus nine and a half. All right. Screw that. Yeah, you're scared of though. I get it. We're going with the Broncos at plus three and a half. That will definitely.

Yeah. Yeah, we have to final five. Just because of all the biweeks, it feels like we kind of are pigeon tier. Like we have to kind of take this one. We're going with the bangles at plus six and a half. We're going with the Eagles at plus three.

So that's three. So we got them three and a half. At three and a half. So we got to narrow this down Sunday. I'll put the bears on here. I'll put the bucks on here at minus 12. let's keep the Packers on here. Let's keep the Saints on here.

Let's keep the Titans plus four and a half, the Finns plus two and a half, the Bucks minus 12, Packers minus seven and a half, Saints minus four and a half. We will choose two from those five. I love it. And again,

we might be playing with fire here going back to back Thursday games, taking the dogs, but that's too hard to pass on that number. three and a half now it's down to one. Like, we'll step into it. If that's what it takes, sometimes that happens. That's just too good of a number of pass on.

I am not afraid of the flame. As Emma Lovewell tells me on the Peloton, don't be afraid of the fire. All right. So you want to go through our survivor picks? I'll tell you the teams we've taken, which is a great list. The Survivor Pool pick of the week. I really am a survivor.

rid of the Rams. We've gotten rid of the Browns. We've gotten rid of the Panthers. We've gotten rid of the Bengals. We've gotten rid of the Vikings. We've gotten rid of the Colts. We've gotten rid of the Colts. A bunch of the Colts. I can't believe we got rid of the Vikings. Like, thank God. Yeah, right. So Travis Reed. I read the Travis Reed article on at www.com. I actually made a chart of his chart. He has a chart that says, okay, right now these are the teams, each team's percentage chance to win. going forward because it helps you look ahead and say, okay, and I'm thinking about when do I want to use Arizona, when do I want to use the Rams? When do I want to use Buffalo? I can look ahead and say, oh, in week 12, they have a 78% chance to win their game. I've diagrammed everything. I've gone through and said, all right, these are the two teams that have the best chance to win each week. The problem is, like this week, it's fucking Arizona and Buffalo. Yeah, so Arizona, like I got their schedule pulled up right now. They have Houston this week. If we don't use them, they have at Detroit, December 19th. That's not bad to hold on to it. I mean, again, it's on the road. It's a little

scary. And it's also, by the way, it's, it's, it's also Cliff Kingsbury in the second half of the season. That's true. I actually did. Our man, Matt Mitchell is just waiting for us to say that. I didn't even think of that. Yeah, that's true. I mean, let me pull up New England real quick, though, because this honestly might be, this is it probably for taking them.

I mean, they're bad. New England is bad. They're two and four, so they desperately need this win. That's why I like that you're saying to take this one. And this is it. Like, we either take them now or on my birthday, January 9th, they play at Miami.

like do we really want to take them at Miami in week 7 week 18 I don't think so right is it like is it going to come are we going to are we going to have six figures in play and put it on the Patriots in week 18 and they're playing in Miami which historically even when Brady they would blow games and they would lose games down there I mean what was that two years ago they were 17 point favorites and they went down to Miami and they lost on that fluke like hell Mary kick return thing so Yeah, if you're like us, we're sitting here. We're either going to take New England or the Cardinals just week just to get rid of them because this is by far their best matchups, both of them. I feel honestly, I feel better taking the Cardinals just because it feels more safe.

Like we'll win where New England, it's, again, it's Mack Jones. Like the kid is a rookie that makes stupid mistakes. So a little scary. But if we want to get rid of New England, this is a prime spot to do so. I would rather take the Cardinals. All right. I'll put them in now, though. Putting them in.

Because I like to set it and forget it, so I don't have to, like, stress on Sunday about it. All right. We have done our survivor. We have narrowed down our field. We have done our big balls bed of the week. We have taken our sharp call. We have reminded people of our scooch roulette, the honorary scooch roulette. You like the Packers.

I like the Eagles. we need to give people some kind of money line around Robin Parley. I mean, it's ugly. It is. I feel better, though, just because last week, every favorite was winning and went outright. Only two dogs won outright. I believe it was, oh, no, three, including Monday night. So, or I guess I'm forgetting the Jaguars too.

The Jaguars won out right. Las Vegas Raiders went out right. The Cardinals went out right. And then the Tennessee Titans did. So it's the same thing this week where, you know, I always go towards the home dogs. So just first glance, like I did a couple of these early in the week. I did Tennessee with the bangles and a couple of them.

Like I did two teamers. Now looking at it, I still like those two. How do you not throw in Miami as a short home dog? And like I'm scared now to do it, but I really like the Colts money line. But now everything you're telling me about what Chris said makes me a little nervous where it's like, maybe that's why this is, you know, plus one. 70 plus 180 on the money line with the Colts. They're sucking me in a little bit here.

So as we sit here today, I can only really give you like three or four that I love. Like I love Miami. I love the Giants. I love Tennessee. I love the Bengals. I'd really have to think about that fifth one just because, you know, I mean, I love taking these big dogs. I don't see a world where the bears can win.

I don't see a world where the lions can upset. I don't see a world where the Houston Texans can upset. So it's kind of a downer a week where these big dogs aren't really that alive. So go with four. Just do four. I'll force a fifth one in there. I can't help it. I love bedding underdogs.

But yeah, if people are bedding them right now, just go with those four. So Tennessee, the Giants, Miami, and then we're going to round it out with the Colts. Why, wait, Tennessee. Yeah, why don't have the Eagles? You mean the Eagles? Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I don't know why I keep putting the Giants in there. I hate the Giants.

Yeah, it's terrible. Like, they're everything in the world, you'll tell you bet the other side of the Giants games. We talked about. Actually, I still love that over. That'll probably be, that might be my over and convince me, the Carolina Panthers and the Giants, just because I love short field games.

And both quarterbacks love to turn the ball over. That feels like a really good short field game. So if you're looking at that Giants Carolina game, I have no issue just taking the over and staying away from the sides. Convinced me, of course, is the show that we do on at Action Network HQ, Sunday mornings, 11 a.m. Eastern. Thanks for listening to The Favorites podcast. I'm Chad Millman. He's Simon Hunter. You can download it from Apple, from Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

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For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me I'm Sam Jay And I'm Alex English Each episode We pick a year unpack what went down And try to make sense

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