The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Week 9 Best Bets

Episode Date: November 6, 2021

If there was ever a week to drag your big balls into a foxhole, it's this one.Confused? You won't be after listening to another rousing episode of NFL betting analysis from Action Network experts Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter. Together they discuss the calls from fellow gamblers Simon received this week, the lines that have moved, COVID impact, moneyline underdogs to take and so much more. Does a Sam Darnold injury matter? Is Justin Herbert okay? Should we all blow our Viking horns? Listen now to find out! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I am Chad Milam, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. I am joined by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, my brother. You there? Yeah, I always let just let you go, Chad. I just wait until it's all completely out of you. No, I appreciate that. I got a lot of things to say.

We got a lot to do, though. The problem is we got a lot to do. We got to talk Survivor. We got to talk Moneyline Parlet. We got to finalize our five. Do our big balls out of the week. We got to do sharp calls in which we get a take on what the wise guys who call you after the Tuesday show feel about some of your plays.

I'm feeling so good about so many of the games that we talked about. We got some Aaron Rogers COVID stuff happening that we got to reexamine because the chiefs at one and a half are one of the things we loved. I don't want to dilly dally because I want to spend a little bit more time on Survivor this week because I do think for a lot of people are now into week nine, the Bengals was a big loss. The box was a big loss. So whereas throughout the year we had been seeing favorites winning.

and so a lot of people were sort of hanging around in survivor pools. Those two, I think, knocked out a lot of people. And all of a sudden, a lot of people are seeing that their leagues, their pools have been cut by 75%. So I'm in a couple. You're in a couple. We're in one together. We're going to talk about it. We're surviving.

I'm a survivor song for everybody. Let's get to Shreve calls. Hello. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring. Telephone ring. Somebody saying, baby, what you doing?

What do people say? I would say the only person who's consistently called me every week this season is a guy Hank, which people do love his voice. Now, he talks like this. You're making a dumb pick this week. You and Chad, you're off on this one. Sounds like he's been smoking every day since he was five years old. He hates our Bengals pick, Chad.

He hates it. He's not alone. He was all over the Patriots last week. That was his biggest one to me. I still have no fear. I'm still cool with it. I mean, it is scary that. It's just sitting.

at two and a half at all these books all week. But with all the Odell drama going on with the Browns, it's kind of making me feel a little better where it's like they're just toxic right now, the Browns. And this is just a great bounce back spot for the Bengals. So I'm interested what you think about that. What were people saying you about the Bengals? As I do every Thursday, you know, I love my Thursday morning. Today was a little different just because, you know, it's a little chaotic in my house this week. But I listened to Ray Bonn and Stuckey on the Action Network podcast. They love the so much in this spot, they want to marry the Browns. To the point where they feel undervalued, better roster,

a defensive line that can rush the passer without needing to blitz, better DVOA defensively. I know how you feel about DVOA. But they both looked at this game and saw it as a smash spot for the Browns, probably thinking the same thing you are only opposite, which is so much toxic drama on the Browns that you're getting them at a discount. Yeah, that's fair.

If it comes down on someday and you want to stay away from that same reason, I'm not going to fight you on just because if other professionals are reaching out to me about it, it's always scary. So the next big one, two different guys seeing me up about. One is someone that has never hit me up during the season. Crazy amount of respect. I'm not going to name drop him, but people do know who he is. he hated my take on the Ravens hated it he was all about the Vikings so a little scary because

I've already bet I already bet the Raven so I bought out of the position now I got nothing I'll make a little bit of money now if the Vikings do cover maybe I'll throw them in a money line teaser the Vikings because he just loves that number so much but I don't know like I said to him I feel like people are just not respecting Lamar enough after one bad week and now you have a buy a week it feels like we're getting him on a little bit of a discount so I respect this man enough where I'm not going to go against him. I'm not going to be given out the Ravens anymore. But man, I hope he's right because I really like this position for this Ravens team.

What was his take that made him think he liked the Vikings so much? He just thinks people are overrating what happened on Sunday night that people are just so down now on Kirk. And again, he was talking a lot of shit. Basically, he was saying, we're an idiot for you and betting Kirk in prime time. which I said to him, you can't just always fade Kirk in prime time. That's just too simple. He goes, simple works. And I was like, all right, well, you got me there.

He sent me the numbers. It's true. Kirk is shit in prime time. But I think the biggest factor to him was we saw the Bengals team have the speed to kind of shut down Lamar. I think he believes that the Vikings have that same type of speed on their defense. They're going to be able to shut down and running quarterback. So it is interesting hearing this, like other people, take on these games because it always changed your view on different, you know,

matchups where I thought you're getting a good matchup against his Vikings defense. And now he's saying, no, go relook at those numbers. I think the Vikings defense is a lot faster than people give them credit for. Your honesty is so refreshing. I got so many comments this week about your response to the Colts loss. Stop talking about that game, Chad. Jesus Christ. Let me move.

on. This business is getting so much bigger. There's so many more people coming into it. So many fucking frauds. Like, it's just embarrassing, right? I just saw the other day, some fucking network is starting a new gambling show. There was a story about a woman they hired who six months ago was in PR. And now she's being hired as a betting expert on television. It's like, are you fucking kidding me? It is fucking hard to do this. And everybody, comes in, thinks because they can say, I like so and so on the money line, I like so and so is three point favorites, that they're talking about betting. And everybody else is constantly acting like they're never wrong. They know everything. And then we come on the show and we talk

about our failures. We talk about being willing to change our mind and listen to everybody. And if we feel someone is really good at this, doesn't mean we're not good at it. It just means, hey, they're good at it too. Maybe they're seeing something differently. That's life, man. See all of it. Yeah. I mean, like I said, I definitely have an ego, but I have an ego in check where if I respect you and if I respect your opinion, I'm always going to change that stuff. But I'm with you about the fraud thing. I try to stay out of it. Like people try to put me in Twitter stuff all the time. I try to stay away from it just from the simple fact. If you're happy, if you have a good life, if you enjoy what you do, if you're not going to be going on to

Twitter, yell at people and talk shit to people. and pretty much call it other gamblers. You're too busy living your own awesome life. So I get, I've seen it people. I've seen you try and drag me into this Twitter drama, especially ever since I guess you guys are posting this Hall of Fame videos. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Never ending stuff in my DM right now about like all these different people

talking crap about us. I don't care. I do not care. Maybe in the off season I'll get to it. I need to win right now. So I just have too much shit going on to worry about all this drama and other people what they're doing. My advice to people would be if someone only talks about their wins

they don't talk about their losses. Red flag. That's a media red flag. I told you, even the best pros I know will have years that they hit 40%. It's all about taking the dogs. That's why we take these money line on these dogs.

We're trying to get the value back. Even if you have a down year, you can have a winning year off these dogs. So that would be my advice to be, if you have someone that just only posts the wins and never the losses, stay away. That's just a big red flag because that's just that, this is part of the business.

You're going to lose. It's never set in stone. So that is a red flag to me. What was the other game? You said they called you about one other game. Oh, they love our Panthers pick. So we got that one locked in. I probably had three different guys say they took the four and a half.

They taken the three and a half. Who cares if it's not Sam Darnold? Sam Darnold, PJ Fleck, what the hell of the kid's name is? No, they're not much different. I feel like what I saw from that kid in the NFL, he was good. He's quick, he's fast on the move. He's good outside the pocket. They've got to be doing the same thing.

thing with Sam Darnold. They kind of get him outside the pocket and do things like that. And we have Christian McCaffrey coming back. And it only makes you feel even more better about this Carolina Panthers position. So nothing's changed there. I still love the Panthers. I believe his name is PJ Walker. Yeah, PJ Flex's the coach. I was just messing up.

And PJ Fleck is a football coach with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. You know what Trailblazers do? They blaze trails for other people to be. Become elite. You have blazed trails for others who thought this was never possible. And then I believe it's Tracy Fleck, who Reese Withers played in election. Wow, that's a good, that's a good name drop. Which was an amazing movie. Love the Panthers. I think you can get the Panthers.

You can get the Panthers again at plus four. I think they're back up to four. So yes, go all in on that. The Panthers are one of the games that I still love. Why don't we talk about the Panthers right now? So we loved the Panthers the other day. It was at 4 the other day. I have no reason not to love the Panthers.

Still, I think that I was wrong about the Chargers last week against the Patriots. I think you were wrong about the Chargers against the Patriots too. But it doesn't mean we're wrong about this team. I think our take on the Chargers might have been a little bit wrong against that team. But the Panthers have a much, much better defense than the Chargers. Chargers do. This is going to be probably a pass rush unlike any pass rush Mac Jones has faced this year. It's going to be a secondary, by the way, with Stefan Gilmore playing against the Patriots that is probably better than any secondary that Mac Jones has faced all year. I don't care who's

playing quarterback for the Panthers. This just feels like a smash spot for the for the Carolina Panthers. Yep. Back to back road games for this Patriots team with a rookie quarterback. The Chargers thing, again, I think it's more we just misread Herbert. He's kind of come way back down. This guy was being talked about as one of the best quarterbacks in football. Now he's probably like, you know, maybe top eight, top 10. He's just dropped all the way down from being that upper tier to being in a lower tier now just because he's inconsistent.

Now it's come out that he might have an injury in Herbert. I mean, we'll talk about there's a bunch of games being affected by quarterback injury. So with this game, it is brutal that if Sam Darno is out, it's not ideal. But at the same time, we talk about PJ is not that. that big of a difference. He's, he's, he's going to be inconsistent for sure passing, but I feel like his athleticism will be able to take that, kind of even out that balance, where this, if this kid can get outside the box and run, he is quick. We know the Patriots have really slow linebackers. I mean, Hightower is a dinosaur back there. I feel like the

biggest thing to me is just the rookie quarterback on the road again, second week in a row. Mack Jones, he has been better than I projected him to be. But last week, I mean, he really didn't do much. I think it was 18 to 31 for, you know, 170 yards. It was the run game. I mean, Damien Harris just absolutely dominated that game for that Patriots team. So if the Carolina Panthers can make this one-sided and take away the run game for this, this Patriots team, it's all on Mac Jones's shoulder. You have to feel good about the secondary of Carolina getting our backs here. So we do love this number.

We say this every week. What did Matt Jones do? Did he do anything? We say that every single. It does make third down completions. So I try not to shit on too hard, but I just think the hype is getting a little too much for this kid. The next game I want to talk about. We promised before the season started that this would be an Atlanta Falcons podcast.

The Atlanta Falcons are six point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints who we don't even know who the quarterback is going to be for the Saints. this also feels like a letdown spot for the Saints, a get right spot for the Falcons. I like it. I want to put it in. I want it to be one of our top five along with the Panthers. Now, are you scared at all about Maddie Ice getting his hand stepped on and getting stitches in his throwing hand?

Don't bring me down. I'm just a little hesitant about that because that is a big deal. He's going to be having to have a glove now on that throwing hand. It's interesting. I'm with you. I love the number. You're ever telling me, this is Tassum Hill or the third string quarterback. After such an emotional win, like you talked about last week, I mean, that's one of my

favorite video clips I've seen this season is them in the locker room after winning that game. It's like a smoke machine's going off. Everyone's dancing. And he just turns the camera real quick to James on his crutches dancing. It's honestly hilarious. So, yeah, I'm with you. It's a great great position, but I would have to wait until Sundays until I really know more

about Matt Ryan's hand and what. what the whole deal will be, like how he's looked in practice. I need all that stuff before I can put money on this. I kind of want to take it now because it's at six, but I'm going to roll the dice and hope it stays at six by the time I get that information. But why not take a little bit of a taste now just to get it on the six? And by Sunday, if it's still at the six and you've got the better information, you can get more.

And if it's not, you haven't overinvested. Like, don't you want to put a little bit of something when you know it's at the number? and chances are Matt Ryan is going to play. They're going to shoot him up. He's going to be able to do what he's supposed to do. I would, but there's just so many red flags around this Falcons team. I mean, we've got no more Calvin Ridley. So now their number one receivers are rookie tight end in Pitts,

who was easily taken away by the Carolina defense last week. It's just a little too much for me to be all in on this Atlanta team, where they just have so many holes and so many weaknesses. That's why you see the line moving up, even though we don't know who the Saints quarterback is. that's why it's gone from five and a half to six because I think a lot of professionals are looking at the same way as me. It goes, all right, we think the Saints are maybe a top six, top 17 in the NFC.

Where did Atlanta? I mean, if you're just going off the top of your head, do you think they're one of the bottom, you know, five, six teams in NFC? They're just, it's hard to have a lot of faith in this Atlanta team. But like he just talked about, this is a prime letdown spot for the Saints team. It is. I'm seeing it, Jesus, I'm seeing it at plus six and a half now.

So that's what I mean. His hand injury might be way more for real than we know. Because like it's literally metal spike stepped into his hand. He was gushing blood during that game last week. You know what, Simon? He's a fucking football player. Play the fucking game. All right.

We talked about the Patriots and Panthers. We talked about the Vikings and Ravens. We're a little anxious about that right now. By the way, I'm seeing the Vikings up to six and a half. Wow. So I was dead on my five and a half level of Ravens now until the six and a half. He better be right. I'm kidding.

No, I'm with him. I trust this man. I trust him. Bengals, two and a half. Still holding. You know, there's, that's another one that they called about. It's another one that I mentioned, Stucky. and Raybon love the Browns.

I don't know, man. I feel like at the end of the day, this isn't a, this isn't a obvious spot for the Browns. In this scenario, we would almost always say, I want the home team that is in a divisional matchup that is less than a field goal favorite. And that is healthy.

And I don't feel, I don't feel differently. I know we're going against what the wise guys called you about. I know we're going against what Stucky and Raybon said. I said them. I think it's a sharp trap. It feels like a sharp trap. It does. The same thing.

We fell into it last week with the Colts. The Colts were a dog. It felt like a great number in a divisional matchup. I stepped right into it. I got sucked in. Same thing with this week with the Browns. The Browns now, people need to go look at their offensive line. They're already down to.

starters. I think they're down another starter this week. So you have a banged up quarterback, down a bunch of starters, playing against the team. And the bang was that we talked to how Fluky last week was. They were up 11 points with five minutes to go. It all got flipped upside down. So I'm with them in the sense that a lot of professionals agree with stuck. Like that's, that feels like a professional play this week. But it's just the more I look at, the more it looks like a little bit of a trap to me. So I'm good with taking Sinti, but when it comes Sunday, you're like, I can't do it. I don't want to go against these guys.

I'm going to agree with you just because I've had other professionals say they don't like it either. Well, I'm leaving them in there for now. By the way, the Bengals were my scooch roulette pick. The Panthers were your scooch roulette pick. So one of us is going to be, and you were upset that I got the Bengals. So we'll see what happens. I can't walk away from it now. I got to go all over.

No, you're in. I can't hedge. I can't hedge. But what's interesting, all right, so we're going to take the Packers and Chiefs off the board here. When we talked about it the other day, Aaron Rogers was pre-COVID diagnosis. Clearly his immunization did not entirely protect him. Was he vaxed? Was he not faxed?

Did he outsmart reporters by saying he was immunized and then nobody asked him follow-up questions? where's reporting going these days? Where's the skepticism? Where's the media when you need them? Okay? That's what I want to know. Yeah. And again, it reaffirms everyone's fear

that people in power can get away with stuff and this is a prime example of a man in power. Like, I don't want to get too far into it either because we don't want to be a political show, but he wasn't wearing a mask after games on the field. If you see any of those other quarterbacks that haven't been Vax, they're rocking masks after the games

because they can't be around people without mask on. Little things like that, it doesn't really matter. Rogers can get fined $40,000. He'll pay that, whatever it is. The big issue now is he's going to miss this game and potentially the next game, which is a big deal, especially if you're someone that you bet them best record. That might be dead now with him missing these back-to-back games. We'll see what it's going to shake out. I'm in on the Green Bay. You're giving me Green Bay plus eight, plus seven and a half against this awful Chief's defense. I'm taking it. The same reason I was on the Chief's side, I just felt like in a coin flip game, they have the value towards them where they're the home team.

You have to trust my homes in this position. Green Bay's due for some letdown games. I mean, they have covered seven straight games, people. That's crazy. They got blown out week one and now they've covered seven straight. Man, I have to take this plus eight. But our contest, it's most likely going to be a pick for the chiefs. So I'm going to be trying to do a balance act here where I'm going to be taking the chiefs, probably in a contest.

with you. I mean, how do we not? But I love Green Bay. I'm going to love Green Bay's money line on the simple fact that if you're giving me plus 250, like I bet the Giants last week, even though we had Survivor and we needed the Chiefs, I couldn't not take the Giants money line. It's just, it's instinct where I'm looking at this. I say, this is a coin flood matchup. You're giving me an extra 200 plus 200 on the money line. I'm taking it. I think the Giants were maybe plus 325. This week, Green Bay, I think they'll end up being plus 250, maybe plus two seventy five once it all settles it's hard to pass on that number but how do we not take my homes at home versus a backup quarterback at a pick uh it's gonna be tough choice for people in their

contest if that why is that a tough choice like it makes all the sense in the world i was worried it's tough it's too easy but we have to do it hey what did our what are what are a wise guy from the beginning say keep it simple stupid sometimes sometimes Sometimes it's just that simple. Keep it simple, stupid. I'm just getting with the kiss. Put that in now. All right.

Do it. I like it. So now here's what's interesting. We like the Panthers plus four. We like the Bengals minus two and a half. We probably like the fountains plus six, depending. No,

the next two games, I don't know if you're going to bring them up. I have two. I love that we haven't touched yet. All right. Well, we haven't. Listen, we haven't gotten there yet.

I know. We like the chiefs at whatever number, pick or minus one, 49ers. Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding. Or as they say on the tickety talk, this is the meme that's going around. Bing dong. That's so I rarely mute words on Twitter. That's a word I muted. Or maybe Bing bong.

It's something to do with the Knicks. There are no louder fan bases in October, November, than the Knicks. Shut up, Knicks fans. All right, let me, you guys can go crazy in June. I can't take it in October and November. Shut up. So I've muted that.

Anything Nicks-related has been muted on my social media. I just can't do it. So what are we going to do here, Chad? We love the 49ers. Now it's coming out. Kyler Murray might be hurt. He might even miss this game. The lines move from plus two and a half down to plus one now for the 49ers team.

Nothing's changed. We still like them, even if it is Kyler playing. we kind of knew he was hurt. You could tell last week he wasn't running with the ball and their offense just looked really bad against his Green Bay team. Makes sense now. The guy has some injuries.

This is the fear with Kyler. He just is a little guy. He gets hit wrong. He's hurt. So nothing's changed here. If this is still at a plus number for us with this 49ers team, we're going to take it. I mean, obviously if Kyler is out,

that's an automatic play. But as we said here today, I still love this. for this 49ers team. We love the 49ers. We love the chiefs. We love the Panthers. We are debating the Falcons and the Bengals. Now it gets interesting, Simon, as it does every week. We've really, we have so much confidence right now. And now a few words from our friends at Fandall. This week marks the halfway point to the NFL season and there is a big Sunday afternoon matchup between Green Bay and Kansas City. Fandua Sportsbook is about to make it even

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offer market. Max bonus $150. See full terms at sportsbook.Fandual.com. Restrictions apply. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 next step or text. Next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-888-889-77-77 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1,800-2707117 for confidential help in Michigan, Tennessee Redline 1-8009-8-8-9, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. Tell me the game that we haven't talked about because I've gone through every game that we had on our list. Tell me the game we haven't talked about that all of a sudden is is creeping up based

on marking conditions, injuries, chatter, chit-chat, gossip, whatever. We talked about it a little bit. Herbert might be banged up. Supposedly he's hurt. This line keeps moving down with this Eagles. It's down to plus one and a lot of offshore books, which I know a lot of professionals use and they move numbers. I kind of take notice when I see that stuff.

If they bet this down from two and a half to down to plus one, even though when I check the action app it says all the money, all the tickets are pouring in on the Chargers team. That's interesting. I think that these pros might know something more than we do about Herbert. Maybe he's more injured than that's getting let on. So if you can still get plus two and a half, I'd take that now because if it comes out, there is something going on there. He might be banged up.

You're going to see it move just like this Arizona line. It's going to start dropping. So I am in on the Eagles. We talk, we like the matchup that the Eagles were able to run against his Chargers team. I just didn't want to do it because the talent discrepancy, there's just so much more talent on this Chargers team for this Eagles team. But when you're giving me a better and offensive line like this Eagles team has, and they've just had one of the best running weeks we've had all season,

I do think the Eagles coach staff is going to buy into that. And they're going to pound the rock against this Chargers team that cannot stop the run. Again, Chad loves DVOA. I think they're the 32nd rank DVOA. Only a team ahead of them are the chief. Chiefs, which is 31st. We think Chief defense is awful, too. So just going from that standpoint, if there is no Herbert, this is a disaster for this

Chargers team coming from West Coast to East. So if you can get two and a half, I would just bet it just as an insurance play because I think this Herbert injury might be more than they're letting on in the media. That feels like inside Wise Guy info. Because this Eagles team, we bet him a bunch and they're a little bit like the Jags. They disappoint us every time. We get them wrong every time. Every time.

Every single time. And so. Well, we got them ready with Tampa, six and a half. But that was lucky. We have, we have, we have, we have, we have, they have beaten up on bad teams, destroyed bad teams. They have gotten killed by good teams. I do think the chargers are still a good team. I think the chargers, forget about Herbert for a second.

They ran into defenses that are. elite in the Patriots and the Ravens and coaches that are elite in Wink Martindale for the Ravens as their coordinator and Bill Belichick for the Patriots. We didn't see it with the Patriots. We did see it with the Ravens. I just think if Herbert is healthy, then all of a sudden. I'm just telling you get on the number now in case he is now. So like, why does it make more sense to get on the number now for the Eagles if we think Herbert might be hurt? Because two and a half a key number. Okay.

Especially with all the, like, these are two different teams that go for two a lot and do a lot of weird stuff. So that's the only reason. I just think that two and a half is a key number to get now. So it's a little taste. It might not be a full unit. Yeah, yeah. I'm not, I'm not going huge on this one.

This is just one of these I bet now just because you're hearing a lot of whispers. And I think they, I think the NFL has gotten way better with the whole COVID thing. Like that news has not leaked this year, really. Last year it was leaking a lot. COVID stuff and then a day or two later it would come out that these players were out because of COVID now the media is on top of it like a guy gets COVID Schepter knows first he puts it out there and then the books take the line off right away last year we had a couple days sometimes before they would take these lines now because they didn't know it's been different with that

with the QB injuries it's like the old time I mean it's always been this way these teams don't release injury info they just don't do it so you have to trust your sources the stuff you're hearing from people inside these buildings I'm not one of these people, these guys are contacting. They're contacting other professionals. So I'm getting secondhand information. It's all about me trusting the different information I'm getting. So a guy I do very trust very much as good sources.

He's the one coming about the Herbert stuff. So I'm going to believe it. I'm going to bet that two and a half while I can, the fact that these offshore books that I trust that I know professionals use are moving it down to plus one, that's a big deal to me. Because, like, again, they're moving it against all the money, all the tickets coming into the chargers. Like, that's a big deal for them to move it that much.

All right. You got me. As we speak, I am going to log into my phone and I am just going to bet it. I'm going to bed the Eagles. Yeah, grab the two and a half and then you can buy out. And I'm going to do it legally. That's how I do it. As we transition into Survivor, which deserves a little bit of conversation today,

let's recap. Panthers plus four, well, Chiefs Week is in the contest to pick, but that's not what the line is anymore. Panthers plus four, Niners plus one. We still like the Bengals minus two and a half. Take the Eagles plus two and a half because there's whispers about Herbert's health. And then we'll examine on Sunday the Falcons and the Bengals and see if anything else tickles are fancy, where we can make some last minute emotionally rash decisions that will ruin our Sunday. Right?

Yep. Okay. Just want to make sure we're on the same page. Now it's time for Survivor. The Survivor Pool Pick of the Week. I'm in the pool with you. I'm in one pool where I have to

still have to choose two teams two times between weeks two and ten. I've already done it once. I'm thinking I'm waiting until week 10. I thought about it this week. I called Travis Reed, who we talk about his stories all the time. He breaks down, does Survivor picks every week

in Action Network using a lot of different philosophies and theories. He's very good at it. He's got my favorite football model at the Action Network. He puts crazier lines than me. He's amazing. He's totally amazing. So I went through it with him a little bit.

We both agreed that I was going to go with the Bills this week. And then next week, I'm going to go with the Colts at home against the Jags and the Cowboys. But I'm taking two relatively big home favorites next week. And I'm risking this week a Bills win. on the road as a huge favorite. I don't hate the bills play. I kind of want to save them for us just because I know they still have to play the Jets, which I know people are scared of them because the whole Mike White thing,

but that's just, I don't know. I don't think it's sustainable. So so far this year, we've used the Colts, we've used New England, we've used the Panthers, we've used the Minnesota, Cleveland, Sincy, the Chiefs, and L.A. So we still have a lot of good teams left. If we're looking for a layup this week, I don't hate Dallas. They're playing Denver at home.

That feels like a really easy pick. You want to get a little ballsy, the Saints at home against Atlanta. That's risky because we don't know the whole quarterback situation. Or we can do another safe play and take Buffalo. But I don't know. I really want to take Miami. But if it's to Rod Taylor, I just can't do it against Houston. Like that's a great position for Houston to bounce back.

So we have to wait and see on that one because if it's Davis Mills, I will be on Miami. this kid has been awful on the road this season. Just absolutely terrible. So that is a really good wait and see. If you can get Miami out of the way and use them now, that's huge. Like you're never going to be able to take them again the rest of the season. So that's one of those I'm waiting on and see who is the quarterback for Houston. So what are you saying?

We're waiting and it's going to be Miami or it's going to be. Miami is our high risk play. Our Boyne safe play is Dallas because I want to save Buffalo. But I get if people want to use Buffalo. this we can just get it out of the way. But to me, I feel like we'll get a better position taking Buffalo later on. All right. So Dallas or Miami.

Yeah, I love them. We're actually going to risk. How much money, how many people are left in this contest, about 700? Yeah, so we started, I'll pull it up. Started with 3,000. It's down to 790. We're going to put that on the dolphins. Are you fucking kidding me?

But this is what you got to do to win these things. You got to start playing sport now. Like we've done the boring chalky things where you just take the biggest favorites every week and you get those out of the way. You're going to start getting pretty wise. I mean, Chad, I don't know if you remember last year. I won my contest on the Jets. The Jets had two wins last year. I picked one of them right and won a survivor contest that way.

So that's what's going to come down in those final weeks. We're going to be taking some ugly teams to win this thing. So if we can get rid of Miami now, I would be really happy. But I'm not doing it unless it's Davis Mills. That's the biggest thing here. It has to be that kid starting. Well, hold on. We'll go Cowboys or Miami.

I put Cowboys in first right now because that's the most likely play. But we'll see. We might be changing that. All right. All right. By the way, as we speak, I have made a small bet on the Eagles at plus two. Can I get that hook? It's down to plus two.

It's down to plus two. Damn it. I will be tracking all my bets in the Action Network app. I've made four so far today. I will load them into the Action Network app. You can follow a little. play the game at home, my friends. You know what we haven't done is our big ball's bed of the week.

Good catch by you, buddy. Yeah, well, I'm here. Here to host the show, run the traffic. Our big ball is better at the week has to be the 49ers. Everyone hates that bet. I think the public is well over 80% on the Arizona and all the money is coming on in Arizona. So it feels like we're making big balls here,

taking the 49ers. The divisional games are what make football so much fun. These teams just play different when they play their divisional opponents. So I feel like people are going to be with it on us, but it does feel like a big ball has been the sense that we're fading a Cardinals team that was undefeated until last week. And now we're saying they're going to lose two games in a row. That takes some balls.

Well, listen, the other one that we love that is getting more action than the Cardinals right now is the Patriots against the Panthers. Public all in on the Patriots. We love the Panthers. That was my Scruturelette pick, though. So I feel kind of bad double-dial. All right. So then let's go with the 49ers. The 49ers as underdogs at home against the division leading cardinals are our big balls better the week. We're doing a money line parlay this week, Simon.

This is what I would do. I would do the Panthers. I would do the 49ers. Love it. That might be all that I love right now as we'll throw Minnesota Vikings in for my boy. throw eagles in there. Jesus Christ. Now all of a sudden it's getting disgusting. Oh, this is going to be the grossest part of the whole thing. Green Bay, throw it in there, people. It's, again, me and Chad, obviously want the Chiefs to win.

You can't pass on this value. But that's way too many points for this bad she's defense to be favored by. You're gross. I am. You're a disgusting human being. We are thinking about the Panthers, the Chiefs at Pick, if that's available in our contest, the 49ers at plus one. We will also discuss the Falcons plus six, depending on Matt Ryan's hand.

The Bengals minus two and a five, minus two and a half. If we start to, unless we hear more chatter from wise guys about the Browns, we are talking about the Eagles plus two depending on Herbert's health. You like scute truette, your pick of the week is Carolina three and a half minus Cincinnati minus two and a half. The foxhole bet is the Niners. That was the foxhole bet. You know what? Fuck it.

It's a limited, it's a limited, it's a limited palette this week. Yeah, we can't love them all, you know. All right. You know, like if we loved them all, then we'd just be hacks. We're refined. All right. It's big balls and it's foxholes. There's nothing to tell you you can't have big balls in a foxhole.

By the way. Let's climb down into the foxhole. Everyone would say that's when you need your balls to be the biggest is when you're in the foxhole. That's true. I think when you run out of the foxhole, that's when you're, biggest ball. I think if you're in any situation where you're in a foxhole or potentially running out of a foxhole, that's combined. That's when you need your balls to be the biggest. And on Sunday, when we're betting on the Niners against the Cardinals, we're going to be foxhole

big ball in it. Maybe free ball in it. I don't fucking know. All right, Simon, I'm going to remind everybody to watch Convince Me. We might update some of what we're thinking about on Convinceme at Action Network HQ 11 a.m. Eastern Sunday morning. Me, Simon, Sean Curner, Chris Raybon, Samantha Bavitti will be on the Action Network Fantasy News desk. Dimmervel's on vacation this week. I'm not sure if he's going to be on the show or not. I forgot. That's kind of boss I am. I keep track of everything. I see the whole board. I've got it all in front of me at all times. No detail too small. Isn't that right, Matt Mitchell? I don't know how to manage anybody. That's right.

Thank you very much. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman for Simon Hunter. Catch us again on Tuesday. Download us Apple Podcasts, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Until then, love you. The Winter Olympics are streaming on Peky Live. Your all-access pass to stream every event every day.

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