The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets

Episode Date: January 15, 2022

We've reached the postseason! And as always, Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman is joined by his best friend, professional sports bettor Simon Hunter as they run through their favorite bets of the NFL Super Wildcard Weekend slate. First they discuss what calls Simon's professional betting buddies have made to him this week, including widespread disagreement in the 49ers at Cowboys game, plus lots of trends to unpack about short road underdogs in the playoffs. We also discuss weather's impact across the board, totals to bet now, and so much more. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Well, card weekend, buddy. It's probably the last time of the year we have just a full slate of games, right? You know, we got six games. We got two on Saturday, three on Sunday, one on Monday. We're going to run through them all. As we did on Tuesday, we gave our first look. You know, we had a couple bets that we definitely wanted to make. We definitely bet on the Pats plus four.

We definitely bet on the Niners plus three. As we discussed today, we're going to go through some sharp calls. We're going to get reaction from your professional betting colleagues to what we said on Tuesday. We're going to lock in the games that we feel even better about other than the Pats and the Niners. We'll probably hit some unders because we've got to expand the menu a little bit. We'll get to our big balls. Bet of the week. That's what we got.

It's a nice slate for the opening weekend. Usually it's some crap games. These are all pretty damn good games. A lot of talk right now in the betting industry about the play of short underdogs, especially on the road and how they've performed the past few years. So I like the trend that we've already bet on the Pats and the Niners. We did not know about sort of the trends favoring short dogs, especially the trends favoring short road dogs when we made the bets.

We learned about them since then. but before we get to anything else, let's get two sharp calls. Who's there? I'm talking. Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody said, baby, what you doing? Definitely got a lot of calls after our last show. But they expected it's playoffs, a lot of difference of opinions and a lot of opinions that are just elevated

because people are so passionate. This is kind of the moneymaker time. This is like, yeah, people bet a lot during their regular season, but we've seen it where, you know, come November, December, They still bet, they're not betting as much. But when it gets to the playoffs, that's really when people really start betting big money again on the NFL. And I think it's more that it's emotional tide.

Like we've seen all these Super Bowl bets coming in. Those aren't pro bets. Like these people have been 125K on the bills to win the Super Bowl. That's some guy that owns some meatpacking plan up in New York. And he's a diehard fan. They just legalized sports betting in New York. He bet that on his phone, on his couch probably. And they're taking his bet.

A professional comes in. He wants to bet 20K in the business. bills, they might have to think about it. They just wouldn't do that because I don't know if the value would be there to do it. But it's my favorite time here because like we just said, it's so much difference of opinions. The guy betting that 125 grand is fucking Matt Mitchell's uncle in Binghamton for all we know. I wish I came from money like that. Yeah.

Seriously. Yeah, well, it's interesting. Like the entire episode is a sharp call because there's so few games. My sense is the feedback you got is from your buddies calling about all. of them. So let's do this. You pick the one game that got the most feedback because I have a feeling I know what it's going to be. You and I haven't discussed, but I am curious if it's the game I'm thinking about. What is the one game you got the most feedback on that people disagree with you? The biggest argument I've gotten in with other pros was that Rams Cardinals game. Almost every group

I've talked to is on the Cardinals. I'll tell you right now, it's going to be us with the public and we're ticking the Rams. That seems like that's the public play. And the pros, They love this Cardinals number. Even the Hopkins was out. Again, you have to shop around. Some books have it up to four and a half. I've seen a drop at other books to three and a half. Talking the professional, I think they're looking at it from the other standpoint of,

okay, Stafford has not played well. You can go through the numbers. He has simply not played well. If you put his numbers up this year, compared to golf from last year, golf statistically had a better year. And like, if you, again, everyone has different QB grades. I graded out golf almost just the same as I did Stafford. Again, a lot goes into that.

running was better last year for this team. But you can't use that an excuse. Stafford had Sonny Michelle the last month, who's been arguably one of the best running backs in football, and he's been turning over almost 1.3 times per game. That's terrible for December heading into the playoffs. We saw last week he turned it over in a pivotal point that really flipped that game. So the big argument from these guys is who the hell is Stafford to be catching this many points? This guy has time and time again choked in these kind of spots. I'm getting the dog. You can get plus four at some books, some four and a half. That's a big number for Stafford to be favored by.

My pushback to them was you don't think the bookmakers know that they're going to get money on the Cardinals. They were going to get a lot of it. And I just looked at the action app. It's not that split. Like it's pretty close, the money and the bets. So I don't know. I pushed back on where, yeah, if it was 75% on the Rams and 75% of the money on the Rams, I would say, okay, these guys have a point.

Maybe I'm overrating this Rams. The fact that the money's so close and the bets are so close. and we're seeing the fluctuation in the different books, it just shows me that you should just shop around because, like this pro group that likes the Cardinals, they've already come in on certain books, and you can see that number down to three and a half. Other books are still sitting at four and a half.

That means they haven't either been accepted at those books, they haven't bet them. So that's what I'm trying to explain to people. It's like, if you like the Cardinals, don't take the three and a half, take the four and a half of these other books because you're literally, those are key numbers you're crossing.

Four and a half, those are key numbers in football especially. I feel like the only thing keeping people from going all in on the Cardinals is Cliff Kingsbury. I think Matt Mitchell and I say this kind of tugging cheek, but everybody who follows football and bets on football pays attention to the fact that Cliff Kingsbury in the latter half of any season he's ever coached in falls apart. His teams just don't play well. Statistically, there is nothing to dispute that. and the only game in which they've really played well in the second half of this season after they were running away with their division in the first half of the year was against the Cowboys

and the Cowboys haven't been looking as good. Other than that, every metric you look at favors the Cardinals. Stafford has been fading aggressively in the second half of the year. Arizona's defense has been playing better than Los Angeles's defense in the two games they played this year, Arizona outgained Los Angeles in the first game by about 60 and the second game more than 100. Like, this is a good spot for the Cardinals, not to mention some of the wildcard dog trends that I mentioned, wild card dogs by a touchdown or less. I got this from Chris Raybon listening to the Action Network podcast by wildcard dogs by a touchdown or less since 2003, 28, 14 and 1. And also, by the way, the Rams just signed Eric Wett.

in the secondary for them. And again, I'm not a trend, not a huge trend, but I do like trends. Arizona 8 and 1 on the road against the spread and straight up this season. I mean, that's another thing that points to the Cardinals. I get. And like why people are betting the Cardinals, if you have any hesitation, it's because of Cliffs Kingsbury. And yet you still like the Rams.

I got to say, I think I like the Cardinals. Yeah. And again, that's fair. but like I'm already on two other short dogs. All three of these short dogs ain't winning. I can tell you that much. I mean, that trend's not 100%. It's,

here's the flaw with what you're saying, though. You're assuming there is a correlation from one dog to the next dog to the next dog. It's like the other day, you know, we were having a conversation or no, I was having a conversation with somebody else about playing roulette, right? And how people like, if it goes red, red, red, red, the next thing they bet is black, as if what has happened previously has an impact on what happens next. There's no correlation. It could mean that the wheel is broken and you should just keep betting on red. But in this case, there's no correlation between what is happening

in those two short dogs that we already like in this game. And who's to say like that we're not, that this isn't the better bet? I think it's the Cardinals. And you're 100% wrong. Everything's connected, Chath. You'll figure it out as you get older with age, but everything in this world is connected one way or another. And yeah, that's a fair argument. Like I told you, other pros are on the Cardinals. All the trends, everything points to the Cardinals. Why isn't this number three? Like, you don't think sports books have these numbers? Like, you don't think that that was my argument to all these other guys who are just like, you're getting free points, free money against Stafford here. And I said to them, that's a good, that's a fair argument. Same thing. We'll talk about

this Bengals and Raiders game. Since he hasn't won a playoff game since 1992. You're getting a dog. that's plus 250 or plus 225 in the Raiders. That's why pros are betting the Raiders here. It's like they're completely throwing out all the info like we gave out about a short week, the better offense, better defense sensitive to all these things. So yeah, that's why it's funny that you said that about like these things aren't connected. You're right. They're not.

It's just like you just said the stat yourself. The odds of all three of these dogs winning or uncovering outright, I mean, it's got to be less than a 50% chance. That's an anomaly is kind of what you just said after you said that stat. I feel like even though you are a full generation younger than me, there is a hundred percent truth to the idea that you are wise beyond your years and I am naive beyond my years. That's the joke though, Chad, is if you take a look at our podcast logo, you would be the 30-year-old, I'd be the 50-year-old. And that's what I love about this relationship.

You've lived a harder life than I have. I definitely have done more groundwork. We're digging. I don't know if I've lived a harder life, but I've definitely done more. Your hands have calluses. In like my hands, I don't have calluses. That's the bottom line. No, I did landscaping for like four years to make money every summer.

That was my life. You know, the moments we don't, we don't dig in the dirt. If you ever get a chance to see Chad's hands in real life, it's really quite a treat. They are a really perfect set of man's hands, like a hand model situation. unblemished and untarnished by any hard labor. But they're really something to look at. So congratulations. All right. Well, let's talk about the Raiders and the Bengals because I do think that's another one. You and I both immediately out of the gate loved the Bengals as five and a half point favorites. It's down to five. I have not bet it because I'm waiting for the number to

continue to drop as we discussed. Here's the split. 60% of the bets, meaning the public on the bangles, nearly 80% of the money on the Raiders. Everybody loves the Raiders here. I mean, except us. And in this regard, I'm with you. I wish you'd grab the four and a half though, because it did drop the four and a half at a lot of books. Chat, open up that action app, turn on your alerts. When it moves a four and a half of your Fandul or whatever book you're going to use, you'll get it, man. But well, it's still good. It's going to go down again. I mean, so much money.

I think the pros came and they ate that number up. So like the books are just going to be like, you know what? We can't go to four and a half because that's when the professional money is. We'll just sit at five because I've seen some books back up to five and a half. So yeah, that's fair. It could drop back down. We make the joke all the time that public dogs die. And it's true.

They just die. And the books know what they're doing. Whenever you see a big public dog like that, it's scary where that's a lot of money to be betting on the Raiders. And yeah, we can say that's professional money, but we know a lot of it's public. A lot of it is the city of Las Vegas. I mean, if you live in Vegas, you're going to be betting money on this game. It's no surprise they're backing their team. So I would keep my eye on the Vegas sports books.

So their lines are going to be different obviously than my lines here in New Jersey. If you see a Vegas sports book dip down to three, three and a half, someone knows something. That's really, really big deal if they touch down to those numbers, because those are all key numbers these books are crossing. The fact that like we just talked about it went back up to five. I've seen some fives and a halfs. Gives me no pause. I'm still on the Sinti team.

I still think you're getting a good number. Still think the rest is going to be a big deal. And not enough will be made about it. But if you like the Raiders, in my opinion, you take them first half. That's when it doesn't matter. Come second half, that's when Sinci will have those fresh legs from having all that rest. The Raiders will start feeling that jet lags, start feeling that trowl, start feeling that shorter week.

If you're trying to play the smart angles of this, Yeah, I'll just work a little on the Raiders' first half money line maybe. But I know for sure, second half, whatever the line will be, I would be on the Bengals. I'm big in to believe that come this point in the season, rest is a very big deal. Teams might come out a little sloppy, you know, you rest your starters could throw the rhythm off a little bit because they missed that week of play. But usually by the second half, these teams get it right and figure it out. So I haven't changed either. I'm still on this number with the Sinti.

Still think Sinci has a better team, better quarterback, better defense. outdoors, in the elements. People could take this under if they choose. Like, I'm on this under. It's moved a little bit towards the under. But again, we'll talk about the next game. That's really my favorite under bet for Saturday, not this one. I'll tell you right now, our friends at Fandall currently have this game at Bengals minus

four and a half minus 114. I'd pay a little bit extra juice to get the four and a half because like at the end of the day, it's just not a massive amount. So that's what I'm going to do. I always say anything under 120, I don't mind. Anything under minus 120, I feel like that's, the juice isn't that bad to be paying. But, yeah. Again, I've already had buddies reach out to me from New York.

They, like, we talked about, they got, they're seeing minus 130 lines and different things like that. So don't just pick the number when you see it, trying to shop around and get the best number. All right. So you said that the next game is your favorite game for an under. We're talking about the Patriots and the Bills. The under in that game, 44 and a half. The side, some places the side's up to four and a half, which is surprising to me because the money is coming in on the Patriots and the bets are coming in on the bills. In the total at 44 and a half, the money on the under, the bets on the over.

Before we get to the total, why is the line going up if all the money is coming in and the Patriots and we all know we like the Patriots, I didn't get the best of the number. Now that's annoying me. You talk all the time. it's if mattress mac comes in and bets two million dollars on Alabama to win the national title, that doesn't move the number at all. A professional group comes in, that's just 20K on Alabama to win the national title. They're going to move that game half a point. That's the difference.

It's like certain groups move these lines. It's not just because all this money's coming. A lot of that money could just be public money. Like we talked about, it's hard to read through those different scenarios. But man, looking at this game. maybe the thing they're thinking of is the last time these two teams played in Buffalo, Mac threw it three times. That was the only time Mac has ever played below freezing temperature, right?

He's a Southern boy played in Bama. He just hasn't played in these kind of elements. That's a fair read, but to me, I still love it. I love the four and a half. I'm not going to let it scare me off that some other pro groups are coming on the bills. I love the number we're getting. So, yeah, it's not ideal, right, Chad? We never, we never like to see the number moving against us, but that's how it's going to be in the playoffs.

It's just going to be a lot of movement, a lot of opinions of different betting groups. Again, during the regular season, you'll see betting like the pros on the same side a lot. In the playoffs, it does not matter. Pro groups go against each other constantly just because different systems, different reads. Again, I'm not a trend better. A lot of pros I know is our trend better. They'll just don't even care about the number. They're just going to simply bet off trends.

And, you know, I can't fault them for this one, taking the bills. they have the experienced quarterback, the better defense. You could argue the better offense, but this is such a Belichick game, right? Bill, that's the Bill's specialties. You give him time to focus on a team, let alone a team he's played twice this year in the bills. He's going to know what to do against them. And the whole key to this game is the lead for the Patriots.

That's what in the first half of the Patriots are up 13 to 7, 13 to 10, you can put your life savings on. You're going to cover this four and a half number because that's the Patriots dictating this game in the second half. The Patriots are down 13 to 7. We might be fucked, Chad, because that's going to be Mack throwing the ball. That's what we don't want. We don't want a rookie who doesn't play in the, he was never really playing the cold, throwing the ball a lot. So that's, that's what the discrepancy is here. It's like this game could flip on a dime if it's not working out for us with the Patriots. We need the pages.

Patriots seem to be either running on first down or second down and just ball controlling this game, keeping Josh Allen off the field. That's how they won that 17 to 14 kind of game. Again, we talked They got lucky in that game, but if that game lands 2117, now we're up to four and a half, we're still covering that number. So I like that it's moving up to four and a half. That's, again, a key number. And we didn't really touch on it. But yeah, the under, that to me is, that's the move.

The under is a good play for me in this game just because the Patriots are really dominant in the red zone and not letting team score. That's also what the bills are great at. The bills are really good at not letting teams score in the red zone. They just, they do the same thing Patriots do. They'll let you go up and down the field. They don't care. Once you get to the red zone, they don't let team score.

So 44, I saw down to 42 and a half when people thought there was going to be snow. Now the pros have bet it back up to 44, 44. And a half, that's good value for me. So to me, that's my favorite under the day because I made this number 43, 44. And a half. That's a key number. Some trends to discuss because you mentioned trend players and people betting on the bills. In this case, the trends are in our favor.

I talked about this with the Cardinals, NFL dogs in the playoffs since 2017. They are 29 and 17, 63% against the spread. Underdogs in the wildcard, 15 and 3, 10 and 8, straight up. Road dogs in Wildcard weekend, 14 and 2. And dogs overall in the playoffs since 2003, 55%. So all of this is leaning towards playing the dogs, which is why it's, scary that we're playing the Bengals, but I do like that we're playing the Patriots. So another trend I really like that I saw Chad was when it's under 10 degrees, the last six games, underdogs are four one and one against the spread. So when it's under 10 degrees, 10's the favorite the underdog team, the last time, last game

that was this exact situation was the Seahawks versus the Vikings. Do you remember that game where the Vikings, you were holding on the field and miss the field goal? Yes, that was a brutal beat, brutal beat. brutal. I think what was the score like 11 to 9? It was something weird. Yeah, it was wicked. Oh, my God. It was so wicked. It was one of those like the Vikings are just cursed. Yes. I'm not the biggest trend better, but I do like, like Chad says, when you hear trends favorite the side you're on, just makes you feel better. So that one obviously favorites toward the dog, taking that dog in the cold weather. All right. So you like the under 44 and a half. We still lean towards the Patriots at plus four, even though the number in a lot of places has moved to four and a half. This is a really, a really tricky one. And today you're wearing your Eagles hoodie, represent. By the last time for the year. Eagles are eight and a half point dogs.

The total is 45 and a half, 46. Both are live. Like, both are really interesting angles. To me, this is the hardest game to handicap other than the chief Steelers, because it's a big number. it's hard to want to play a favorite in this spot. And yet, I think I lean bucks. Wow.

Well, first I'll just touch on real quick with that total. I believe it was 49. And now it's all the way down to 45 and a half because people have read that there's going to be a thunderstorm or there's going to be bad weather. A lot of wind. Like 99. Yeah, a lot, a lot of wind. So that's why people are wondering, why is this total just steaming down so hard?

That's why. It's a simple fact that this weather's no good. That's so crazy that you like the bucks just even after you know that weather report. Like which team is the dominant run team in this scenario? I know, right? I'm such an idiot. What are you doing, Chad? I don't stick to my guns at all.

I fucking suck. I hate myself. It open up the action app. You can see all the money, all the tickets are coming in on the bucks. That number has just been sitting eight and a half these last couple days because they know. The wise guys came in on the Eagles at 10. I just.

So they know they can't. bump it up. They know they're stuck. The fact that they haven't moved it, though, like we talk at a time, six point teasers. That's what the public likes to do. The public bets like cowards. They don't, they don't just bet straight. They like to bet these teasers. That's a key number. Teasing it down from eight and a half to two and a half. Again, we talk all the time. Three is a key number. The books know what they're doing. They know they're letting people bet that. So I'm shocked to hear you be so Joe public on that one. I'm, I'm on the Eagles. I'm actually on the over in this one. I don't let the win.

I'm not letting that weather scare me off. To me, both these teams have a distinct advantage is on offense. The Eagles know exactly what they are and what they want to do. Not enough people are going to talk about it. The matchup of Goddard versus the blindbackers of this Bucks team, to me that's the difference of this entire game. Again, the Eagles are going to try to run it, everything like that. But the way you beat this Buccaneers team is you have to throw your tight end.

You have to make it so they're not blitzing. They have to respect that middle of the field. and the Eagles, I've seen it time and time again. Since we got rid of Ertz, Goddard's been, I guess Devonthe Smith is our best receiver, but Goddard's right there with him. This guy, every time we need to third down, Goddard's been there for this Eagles team. So I love it at eight and a half. I love it even more of the fact like we just talked about all the money, all the bets.

I went to Sugarhouse a couple days ago asking the woman there, how many Eagles tickets are you getting? She said no one's really betting the spread, but people are betting the money line, which is very Philadelphia of us. Like, again, this is a Philadelphia sports book. And she's pretty much said, everyone's been the Buccaneers minus eight and a half. So I love it that they're not moving these lines because that's, again, that's a telltale sign.

If they had to, if they need the money, the books will move the number up. The fact that they haven't, like Chad just said, it's them kind of showing their hand saying the pros are going to hit us if we move it again. So we just have to let it sit here and just hope the Eagles can cover eight and a half. I've passed that book on my way out of town when I've driven my kid to Drexel. And I've left town. I've passed that on the, on the expressway, leaving Philly. Yeah, it's really tricky, really tricky to bet against Tom Brady in wind when he doesn't

get faves by the elements or bet on a Eagles team that's really going to rely on the run. And while the Bucks, you're saying the rush defense, you said this on Tuesday, is not as good as everyone thinks. It's still the strength of their defense. They're injured in a lot of places. I really am shocked to hear that you're on the Bucs. I'm letting a public bias get in the way. Part of me is just thinking I didn't get the thing.

10. And like at eight and a half, the way it's just sitting there makes me nervous. No, it's fair. That's fair. Again, I think that's really. I just can't see it getting back up there. Like we talked about that. I don't think their professionals will let it get that high. The truth is I might just pass. I might not play the, I might not play the side. That's fair. Again, I'm betting all these games. I'm betting all these sides and totals, but like we just talked about that that Bengals game, the Patriots game, this Eagles game, this 49ers game coming up, these are probably my biggest ones I bet on. Like, I'm not going huge on the Rams. I'm not going huge on the cheese. But these other ones, like, I'm

putting a decent amount of money on. Well, let's talk about the 49ers visiting the Cowboys. There's three point underdogs. 77% of the money on the Niners. The total is 51. The majority of the money and the tickets coming in on the over. We love the Niners. That was our Simon says bet. Get it if you could at three and a half on Tuesday. But it's generally been sitting in three, so you probably didn't get it at three and a half. Nothing's changed for me. All the stats, all the trends, everything backs up what we said about the Niners the other day, which is, you know, against the, they've got the coaching advantage.

They've got the line of scrimmage advantage. They've got the defensive advantage when it comes to stopping the run. All things to me, point-niners plus three. Terrifying, though. Like you just read the stats about all the money, all the bets coming on on them. I really thought the public would be back in Dallas. historically Dallas is a public team. Yeah.

Did they not have the best ATS record this season? They did. Right. Fuck. So maybe we're walking into it. I'm not reading this game right because the books, again, I told you, I made this game minus one Dallas. If the books believed all this money coming in,

they would have dropped it down to that number. Like they would be taken in Dallas money. Maybe they're waiting and they're saying themselves, the public will come in on Dallas eventually. We don't need to move it yet. and this is just early professional money, but we knew. I mean, not that I knew for a fact every pro would be on this 49ers team, but then I got calls from all my buddies,

got guys reached out to me, make bets. They're all in the 49ers. They're looking the same thing as me. Cowboys haven't played a good run team since, I don't know, early November. They are one of the worst run teams. They just haven't faced teams that can run the ball. So they've kind of gotten away with it. People that don't really own that.

Maybe they are. Maybe people are looking at the same exact numbers. looking at where it's like, this is an overinflated line. Dallas should not be minus three. The 49ers to me, they're just one of my favorite futures. At 20 to one, I like the value of getting on this 49ers team to make it to the Super Bowl. So I'm right there with you, Chad. Nothing's changed here. I'm still on the 49ers team. They're having a great feel for this total. I lean towards the over just because both these offenses can't put up so many points. But 49ers defense, they've been playing better. I mean, D. Mika R. I and's their D.C., he's been

good. Like he's improved as the season's going along here. So I do like the over. I'm just not putting it that much on it. It's very possible that while we love the Bengals because we think the Raiders might be too much of a public dog, we could be walking into the public dog trap with the Niners. And like I didn't know the numbers like that until you read it off. And that's, that's scary. Again, it's whatever. You know what? Courage of our convictions. We like the Niners. We're going with the fucking Niners here. I mean, I've already betted so much that, yeah, there's no turning back. Like, I'm going to keep betting it as long as it sits at three.

But at this point in the season, you just got to trust your gut and kind of roll with it. Trust your numbers. Don't trust your fucking gut. Have fidelity to the math. Yeah, the numbers only can take you so far in the playoffs, though. You got to mainly trust your gut. That's why you and your bucks pick, I want to talk a ton of shit about it, but I want you to trust your gut. If you think the bucks are the answer, take the bucks.

Maybe I will. We still have a big ball's bet of the week. I was going to do the Eagles, but you're on the bucks. All the money, all the bets are coming on Tampa. That's why I just feel like it takes balls. I have an idea for the big balls better than week. I think it should be the Kansas City Chiefs. Yeah?

Yeah. This is when historically you want to bet on Mike Tomlin. It's a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. And the Chiefs have been inconsistent this year offensively. But the reason to me why it's a big ball's bed of the week is because 64% of the money right now is coming in on the Steelers. It tells me that we're going to be alone on an island. We're with the public on this. This number has moved down.

It's clear the wise guys are coming in on the Chiefs. I don't see it with the Steelers team. Like if the Steelers defense holds the Chiefs to 14 points, I think the Chiefs still might cover. because I don't see Ben, we've said this all season long, Ben Rothosberger's best play, throw the ball up downfield, hope that because the ball is so short because he can't throw out more than 20 yards, his receiver comes back and he gets some kind of DPI.

That's their offense right now. Tell me how the Steelers are going to score. Again, as much I would love to hate on chat about that, Steelers can score a touchdown until the final two minutes last time they played the Chiefs. They're like, Tomlin was down 30 points and he made a starter stay in just to get a touchdown. a meaningless touchdown at the end of that game.

So yeah, that's a fair point to make. Again, their receivers are so talented. I can see them putting up some type of points. Like the Steelers arguably have a trio of the top five or top four best receivers in football. Again, Big Ben is horrible, but I could just see that working out for them getting at some points. But the Chiefs matchup wise, I just love the matchup for their offense going against his Pittsburgh defense. Pittsburgh, their strength has been a pass rush and against the run. Mahomes knows that.

Like the last time they played, he was getting out quick. Once the D-Ns got tired, once the Watt got a little tired, then he would take his time. He would go along to the hill where he would take a middle shot to Kelsey. So I'm right there with you, but I wish I could bet more on this with the Chiefs. The reason I'm just paused on is because what you just said, I know a bunch of professional groups have come in on Pittsburgh. They have a different read than me.

When I looked at this game, immediately I was thinking myself, I'll take the Chiefs and the over and a blowout. Like the Chiefs will just be putting up a ton of points. but in fairness to them, what they're looking at is what you just said with Pittsburgh. Their defense, they are really good. They're really good against the past, too, where they can rush the passer. We know how young this offensive line is for the chiefs, even though they've been playing incredible this season.

I think they were, they grad out as a top three offensive line and pro football focus. So I'll give them their props. Chiefs have had one of the better offensive lines, especially with the past. But that's what these guys are looking at. These pros are thinking themselves, I'm getting 12 and a half, 13 points with Pittsburgh. I'll take that number in a playoff matchup where historically double-digit favorites at home and wild card round cover.

That's why you kind of want to take the chiefs in this position. The numbers work out that it's a little chalky, but this is kind of chalky you do want to be on in the wild card round. Yeah, so here's another stat for you. We talked all about sort of the short underdogs in these spots. Home wild card favorites of 10 or more, very small sample size, since 1996. Eight and no straight up, eight no against the spread.

Since 2000, double digit dogs are two and ten against the spread. When numbers get bigger, this is like the antithesis of what you would normally think, right? In the playoffs, it seems like the blowouts are more common in the games where the numbers are bigger. And the closer games play more to type than you would expect. And like people were giving me shit because I was just shitting on Pittsburgh and the fact that they beat up a banged up Browns team in Ravens to get into playoffs. Forget the opponent. They nameless gray faces.

I'm just speaking facts here. Like the Ravens were a team of backups. They had to go to overtime just to beat that team. This is going to be a lot different with this Chief's team. And even that, that's back-to-back road games. She's Pittsburgh team. They've just been better at home, not as good on the road. Like Chad just read that stat off, that makes me feel way more confident taking this

chief's number because, again, people know I love dogs. Not in this round. Usually in the wild card, I lean towards more towards the favorites. And now a word from our friends at Fandul. The NFL playoffs are here to celebrate. Fanduil Sportsbook is giving all customers up to a $100 bonus on same game parlay. Just place a same game parlay on any super wildcard weekend game and get a bonus whether you win or lose. The more you bet, the more you'll get.

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It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games, and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my

brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

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I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the look back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it, including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, yeah, literally, but just so you y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've

discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field. and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

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Because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different. intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person.

Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search, learn the hard way, and listen now. In Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia,

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so you can watch new episodes of your favorite reality shows live or binge old episodes on demand. Either way, get ready for some drama. And the best part, DirecTV Stream has no annual contract. DirectTV Stream. Get your TV together at DirectTV.com. Requires high-speed internet and compatible device. Content varies by package and location restriction supply. Adoption of teens from foster care is a topic not enough people know about and we're here to change that. I'm April Dinwiddie host of the new podcast, Navigating Adoption, presented by

Adopt U.S. Kids. Each episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories told by the families that live them with commentary from experts. Visit Adoptuskids.org slash podcast or subscribe to navigating adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids. Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. Look through your children's eyes to see the true magic of a forest. It's a storybook world for them. You look and see a tree. They see the wrinkled face of a wizard with arms outstretched to the sky. They see treasure and pebbles.

They see a windy path that could lead to adventure. And they see you. Their fearless guide is this fascinating world. Find a forest near you and start exploring at discovertheforest.org. Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the ad council. All right. We did sharp calls. We did our big balls bed of the week on the Kansas City Chiefs.

We've gone through the sides. We've gone through the totals. From Scoot Roulette last week, I was on the Bengals at five and a half. I would like permission to adjust that to four and a half since that's where the line is. Yeah, that's fair. You're on the 49ers plus three. I would say, heading into the weekend, the bets that we currently feel best about, Niners plus three, Pat's plus four, four and a half, the best number you can get.

we like the Bengals at minus four and a half or five, the best number you can get. I think we like Kansas City minus 12 and a half. Kansas City first half too. They're minus seven. That's a good number. And I would also say Pat's bills under 44.5. I like the Eagles a decent amount, Chad. Not feeling it, which is fair.

They do suck. So I get it. Not feeling it. Do we want to offer a money line parlay? Since we love the Patriots, we love the Patriots, we love the. the Niners, you like the Eagles. Do you want to put together sort of a short three-team money line parlay? We can do five teamer if people really want it.

But like Chad just said, it's rare. It's just rare to get dogs in an hour right in the wildcard round. It's just really hard because usually the dogs on the road and come playoff time, home field. That's a real thing. Like the Eagles is the year we won in the Super Bowl. We weren't good, but we played Matt Ryan at home in the first round or the second round, I guess, because we had a buy.

And we played Kate's Keenham at home. And then we were in the Super Bowl. So that's why home field is such a huge advantage is like these teams, they're coming into your home. They're playing. It's always advantage towards a favorite. So three would be easier. Just because I don't, as going to, the Eagles fan, I wish I could say I believe Eagles are going to win.

I do not. I really don't because I can just see it with Tom. There's any time remaining on the clock, he's either going to drive the field and get that field goal or the touchdown. It's just this is Brady's time of the year. This is what this man does. So I would throw the Eagles out. I wouldn't put them in.

We just talked about since he has not won a playoff game since 1990. That's a lot of history to be fighting. And like Joe Burrow, I hope he breaks the curse and he can change that whole makeup of this team because he has. He's really turned this team around just two years. But we're getting a dog, we've got greater than plus 200 in Las Vegas. Give it to me. I'll take Vegas money line. I'll take the 49ers money line.

I'll take the Patriots money line. If you want to do the Cardinals, that's fine. I just cannot trust Kingsbury. I'm going to stay away from that one. So I'll do Patriots. I'll do Vegas. And I'm like, I'm thinking myself about that Kingsbury one. Like that's good, it's good value because it's Stafford.

Like, and this is why I get while all these pros are like, take the value in the Cardinals. But I've already bet on the Rams and like my numbers think it's a good number. I can't do it. But if you're around Rob and if you hate any other ones we gave out, I cannot blame you for taking the Cardinals. Like Stafford has literally been a train wreck in the year here. So that's fair to take them.

But personally, I just will not be taking the Cardinals on my moneyline. Ron Robin. All right. Vegas Patriots and the Cardinals into Money Line Ron Robin. And for mine, I put 49ers in instead of Cardinals. All right. Vegas Patriots and the Niners. You just mentioned the Eagles.

It reminded me that today is January 13th. Yesterday was January 12th. That is the exact four-year anniversary of Actionnetwork.com going live. And the reason I thought of it is because you mentioned to the Eagles, and that was the first, you know, we went live during the playoffs. And so we were going live like in that divisional round. And then the, that Eagles game when they were five, five and a half point dogs of the Patriots, you know, that was when everybody on our team was on the Eagles and we were coming out and saying,

look at us, action network, we know better, we're new. Take the Eagles. Sure enough, it worked out. And that was a rare time, 65% of the bets and 6% of the money were all on the Eagles. So public dogs, they cover. Sometimes. Let's hope they do this weekend. All right.

For Simon Hunter, for producer Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us, rate us, five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. We love to hear it from Apple Podcast from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Until Tuesday. Go, Bill. Love you.

Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this valentines with 1800 flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries, gourmet treats, and more. Surprise your valentine with 1-800flowers.com. Right now, get the 18-stem enchanted rose medley for $39.99 or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1-800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1-800-flowers. dot com slash tune in. Another podcast from some SNL

late night comedy guy, not quite on humor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between

songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-heart radio app. or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two.

Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but,

celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed Human.