The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Preakness and MLB Betting Update

Episode Date: May 20, 2022

The second leg of horse racing's Triple Crown is this Saturday with the 147th Preakness Stakes in Baltimore, Maryland. Action Network senior writer Sean Zerillo joins his boss Chad Millman and pro gambler Simon Hunter to discuss betting on the race from every angle. Later, they dive into Sean's real passion: Major League Baseball. Simon peppers Sean with loads of questions about the season thus far,  including dead balls, run totals, and fading the New York Yankees. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me.

Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford Show on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast, And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

The Favorites podcast is presented by Fandual Sportsbook. There's no better place to make every moment more than with Fandual. I bet with Fandual because they're safe and secure. They offer great odds and markets across the NBA, NHL, and more. And because it's fun to combine multiple bets into same game parlays. So if you're new, just download the Fandual Sportsbook app to get started now. sign up with promo code favorites so they know I sent you. You must be 21 and over in present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, or Louisiana.

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Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-7-89, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, the Sports Season Never. stops NHL playoffs, NBA playoffs.

This weekend, we have the 147th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico in Baltimore, Maryland,

home of the David Simon epics television extraordinaire. We're a quarter of the way through the Major League Baseball season. In a moment,

Sean Zerillo, Action Network Senior Writer, hardest working man in sports, co-host of Payoff Pitch, our Major League Baseball Betting Podcast on the Action Network, co-host of the Action Network podcast, UFC Betting Preview,

which comes out every Friday. He's going to join us. Us is me, and my BFF, my companion, the newest member of the construction world in northern New Jersey. Professional better Simon Hunter. Dad, buddy.

You were so, you nailed on the head there. This really is like the, I don't know, just never ending sports time of year. Got playoffs every night in hockey, got basketball every night. We got baseball going on during the day. Then we got a little bit of horse racing on the weekend. It's the best. You got to love this time of year, May.

It's, uh, look. You guys know, I tend to go to sleep pretty early. And I am in this point of the year in the NBA playoffs where there's a game every night, no nights off. And last night, the game didn't even start until 9 o'clock. So I napped for most of the second quarter and then was able to be alert and alive for the third quarter to see the Warriors blow them out. And honestly, I kind of didn't want to go to bed. I did, but I didn't want to because even when the Warriors are blowing a team out, they're so fun to watch.

Like, their ball movement, the passes they make, staffs passes are so beautiful. The way Clay cuts, the way Draymond grabs rebounds, Loonie was unreal. Like, that is just beautiful basketball. like what a joy for the coaches to be able to watch that every night. It's, it's glorious. Yeah. And it was definitely one of those games where when Wiggins your highest score for Golden State, they're going to win those games every time.

So that was, me and you, Chad, we're the only ones yesterday. I really love Golden State. And this is why they're just, when they're all healthy, when it's all clicking,

it's just there's no other team in the NBA that can do what they do. Reminder. What did I say? Warriors and Five. Love it. Calling your shot. Calling my shot. You know,

likes to call his shots. Our good friend Sean Zorillo. Sean Zirillo, once upon a time, started an action network very first day did a podcast with me. He had never done any kind of audio ever. Now, Sean Zirillo's hosting two podcasts. He's got like 70,000 followers in our app. He's writing about baseball every day. He's writing about UFC. He's covering horse racing. He bets more hockey than just about anybody not named Mike Lieboff, action network analyst. Sean Zirillo, what's going on?

Doing well, Chad. Got a new puppy, so I'm completely exhausted. I hope I'm able to give out some good information. Hopefully she doesn't start barking in the middle of the episode. She needs to go out every 30 minutes. So we'll try to keep this tight,

but I'm doing well, and I'm trying to find time to manage my time amongst all the puppy pee breaks. What kind of dog do you get? We have a second Bassetown. We had a Bassetown previously. She's now five years old, and now we have another puppy to become her best friend.

But the older dog has rejected the younger dog. And the younger dog is now rejecting the rain. So I've got a lot of rejection going on in my house trying to adapt everybody to their current environment. Oh, my God. People in their dogs. I love my dog so much. The way my wife and I talk to our dog, it's almost embarrassing how we communicate with her. and our son who's home looks at us like we are just pathetic, pathetic people.

But she, like, she brings me such joy. Like, just looking at her, the way she just flaps into the house, just pure love. Our puppy let out her first howls last night. The older dog never learned how to howl, but baskets are notorious for howling. So I started running the blender. and she started letting out her first howl. So hopefully this doesn't become a habit. And she doesn't teach the older dog how to howl,

but definitely one of the cutest things I've ever seen. Oh my God. I love it. I love it for you. Next time record the howl. Put it on the podcast. Speaking of animals we love, we got a preakness.

And it's going to be hard for the preteness to live up to the derby in the drama, in the spectacle. It's almost like it doesn't have any of the horses that sort of had the buzz at the Derby lay it out for us. What are we looking for here? Is there going to be attention in the preteness? What are we thinking about here? So I think the biggest storyline is the fact that Secret Oath,

who is your Kentucky Oaks winner, is trying to become, I believe, the seventh Philly to ever win the Preakness Stakes, had Swiss skydiver back in 2020, though that race was ran in March. And then more famously, probably in 2009, Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. And that was a huge storyline.

So seeing a Secret Oath can be your Preakness, winner, I think is a very interesting story. She'll probably be second or third on the odds board. And this is, I believe, just the second time in 40 years that the Kentucky Derby winner ended up skipping the preteness for a reason other than health concerns. So that's definitely going to open up the field from a betting perspective. You're going to get all that public money, reallocated different horses. And as a result, Epicenter, who finished second in the Kentucky Derby looked like he was going to be the winner until the final 50 yards. I expect him to take a ton of money. A lot of people view them has the clear favorite, and I think it'll be an odds-on favorite by

post time, six to five on the morning line. I expected him would go off probably closer to four to five or even three to five on the towport. Why would epicenter thrive at the preakness? Is there something specific about that horse that makes it predisposed to racing well at the preteness versus, obviously it raced well at the derby, but break down sort of what kind of horses thrive at the Yeah, I don't know if there's necessarily a specific style that thrives at the preteness. Now, it is a 16th of a mile shorter than the derby. Derby's a mile in a quarter. Preetness is a mile in 316th.

That said, we do see closers win the preteness fairly often. It doesn't necessarily mean because it's shorter that you're going to get a horse on the lead that ends up running away with it. There is, though, in this particular race, one speed of the speed. That is the number five early voting. And early voting, if they let him loose on the lead, especially we had the, the fastest opening quarter mile in derby history last time. Oftentimes you see an overreaction from the jockeys where now nobody wants to be on the lead.

So if they get early voting out on an uncontested pace, he can run away with it. The thing with Epicenter, though, he likes to be on or near the lead, but he's very versatile. He can sort of sit where he needs to and eventually find his run down the stretch. It may not be the fastest closing kick. Secret oath probably has the fastest closing kick in the race. But Epicenter is very handy, very versatile. and if you're just looking at speed scores, he is the fastest horse in the race. I like to use buyer speed scorers.

He's the only horse in this field with 100 buyer speed figure. He's done it twice in a row now. 102, two races back 100 in the derby. The highest other speed figures in the race belong to Secret Oath at 96 and also Simplification who finished fourth in the Derby in the one hole. He's also at a 986 and then Secret Oath down into 94. So the reason why people love Epicenter here, either he needs to take a step back or these other horses need to take a step forward or both in order for one of them to end up upsetting this

race. I understand why people like him to a significant degree, but he's had a long campaign coming off of an effort in the derby where he ran 10 furlongs and was battling back and forth in the stretch. Maybe the tank is empty at this point. He is the best horse in the field, but there are reasons to believe why he could take a step back in this race. Now, we just saw one the greatest upsets obviously ever in horse racing, last race in the derby. Looking at this one, there are any long shots are you're eyeing up to your thing yourself you know what there's pretty good value here in this race with a good long shot so the three i'm going to toss the number three fenwick the number six happy jack and also going to toss the number seven arminiac probably as well now of those three arminiac is down at

12 to one on the morning line probably will be a bit higher by post time i mentioned epicenter i expect to get down even below six to five so that's going to inflate everybody else's odds arminiac probably wants to be on or near the lead as well, one is last going wire to wire. Trained by Tim Yachtine, who is a prodigy of Bob Baffert. So that is your quote unquote Bafford horse in this race. I don't think he has the early speed to be at the lead. And I don't think he loves the pass horses either. So I'm kind of tossing Arminiac out of the picture, even though he's sitting at 12 to 1.

Fenwick, and I mentioned Happy Jack as well. I don't think they have any chance of winning this race. Don't really give them much of a chance of hitting the board. So the two longer shots that I do like, Skippy Longstocking, the 9 at 20. 20 to 1. And then Creative Minister, the two at 10 to 1, I think those odds will float up a little bit from where they are currently. I've seen a lot getting a lot of, both getting a lot of buzz, I should say. Creative Minister ran on the undercard on Derby Day. He's two for two going around two turns. And his owners paid $150,000 supplemental fee just to put him in the race. That

reflects the confidence they have and what he showed there. Came wide around the turn in that Churchill Downs race had to pass horses after getting kicked dirt in his face all the way around the track. It was a very impressive effort, but this is his first time going against stakes competition. So it is a step up in competition. But I think he's on a path where he's progressing. And then Skippy longstocking, his last race in the Wood Memorial six weeks ago. Generally, I like the horses that are coming back on six weeks of rest between races instead of two weeks of rest, which you have from the horses running on Churchill Downs Derby Day. So six weeks between those races sitting at 20 to 5, 20 to 1 on the morning line. I like him at that price. I think he can hit the board at that price underneath.

liked his race in the Wood Memorial had some excuses for why he didn't run better. All right. There's more than one way to win when betting on the preteness, exactus, trifectas, the boxes in general. How are you thinking about the race? What are your favorite exotics? Yeah, so I have three scenarios how I see this race playing out. The first is epicenter sitting right off of the pace leader early voting,

sitting in second or maybe even third, if Armagnac pressures as well. ends up getting the ideal trip, passing both of those horses in the stretch and then winning. So the way I would play that is epicenter on top and an exacta with the two long shots I just mentioned, the number two creative minister, the number nine, Skippy Longstocking. You could put them in second place at a center on top. That exacta would pay out a pretty nice price. The other two ways I view the race going, early voting I mentioned, could get an uncontested pace pressure up top, end up running a merry-go round around the track, finishing in first, and then you may either get epicenter just not able to catch up to him and not running his race.

That is how I see an upset happening here, either uncontested pace pressure or you get early voting running around the track by himself or epicenter just doesn't run his race. So there's the B option for that, right? Early voting wins or if early voting gets contested and epicenter doesn't run his race. I think that's where you have a closer like Secret Oath potentially get in there. simplification, who's a very handy horse as well, very versatile in terms of his running style. I actually think he'll be closer to the lead here than he was in the derby where he was sitting 15th and then passed everybody to finish fourth.

So either you get epicenter on top with those two long shots or you look to target a horse like early voting or a horse like Secret Oath on top, then epicenter somewhere hitting the board underneath them and then you mix in those long shots, like I said, Skippy Longstocking and Creative Minister third and four. So that's probably how I see the race playing out is one of those three scenarios. But really it just comes down to does anybody contest early voting on the lead? And two, does Epicenter run his race? That is what's going to determine most of the betting options.

Still kind of figuring out how I want to play it myself. I think I'm going to end up with Secret Oath on top here. I don't necessarily see anywhere near the type of pace that we had in the derby. Of course, that was a record-setting suicidal pace that we may never see again. But all the same, I think early voting has a pretty clear path to victory if nobody can test them early. And other than that, I do love Secretos Lake Kick. I think the Philly is always a little bit undervalued going into the preakness. The television ratings and the Derby were ridiculous.

And then the follow-up social interactions because of the upset nature of the race outstanding. There's nothing more exciting than a Triple Crown race. Those are three minutes that are just heart pounding. I'm going to bet it. I'm going to look forward to it. probably going to watch it. And then I look forward to the Belmont. Belmont Steaks Day is my favorite day of the year.

I call it the midsummer classic. You usually get eight or nine grade one stakes races in addition to the Belmont Stakes. So really it is sort of a preview of the Breeders Cup that we end up getting later in the year in November. A lot of the horses who end up competing for the Breeders Cup, they both qualify for it through racing on Belmont Steaks Day. But you also get a preview of a lot of those races.

And my favorite race in particular is the Metropolitan Mile. I don't know if we're going to talk before that. It's my favorite race every year. It is in the sequence leading up to the Belmont stakes. That's where you get the sprinters who are trying to extend out to a mile and the horses like these, the route horses who typically run a mile and a quarter longer, looking to cut back and distance that mile race.

So you get the best sprinters and the best route horses trying to compete their older horses, not three-year-olds. But the Met Mile, I think, is my favorite race of the year every year other than probably Briders Cup Day. The playoffs are heating up and you can make every game feel like game seven on Fandual Sportsbook, an official partner of the NBA. Throughout the playoffs, all customers can place a no sweat, same game parlay each week. You'll get up to $20 in free bets if you don't win.

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Fandual Sportsbook, an official partner of the NBA. You must be 21 and Olin Select States. Refund issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after receipt. max free bet $20 per week. Restrictions apply. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 Next-Step or text. Next step to 533442 in Arizona.

1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-7777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-117 for confidential help admission. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-8-9-9-9-7-8-9 or visit 1-800-net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand-new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast.

It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.

Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Zerrillo, everything is going your way right now. We had an incredibly exciting derby, which shines a brighter light on the preanness, even if Rich Strike isn't going to be in it.

Lo and behold, you mentioned. the phrase metropolitan. The New York Metropolitan's are leading the NL East right now by a wide margin. They are one of the best teams in baseball. Simon's shaking his head because they're up on the Phillies

by about six games. And the New York Yankees, as usual, they've got to steal the Mets thunder, have the best record in baseball. And if you look to the NL West, Dodgers, Padres, Giants all have north of 20 wins. Baseball has been incredible this year. Ratings are up.

Games are exciting. Manfred can't figure out a way to get out of his own way, and yet it's still succeeding at the highest levels. We're a quarter of the way through the season. What do people need to know if they're just catching up right now? I think if you haven't been paying attention, everybody trying to adjust to the totals environment and the run scoring environment has clearly been the story of the year. Now, if you just bet the under in every game in April, you would have been

up $100 per game. You would have been up over $4,000 with a 13% ROI. Absolutely absurd. The totals at the start of the year opened on average across the board around 8.8. That was your average total for the day. By the end of April, it had dropped the full run to 7.8. For the first two weeks of May, we were as low as 7.3 to 7.4. So the books were aggressively trying to adjust these totals, one for there being humadors in all 30 parks, two for bad weather, and then three for these new baseballs that we have in play.

Now, nobody's really been able to put a finger on whether they're still mixing in old baseballs in addition to the new baseballs. But what I can tell you is home runs are down about 20% year over year. And remember in 2017, 2019, they were up even higher than they were last year. I mean, we hit record setting home run totals then.

So an even more substantial drop relative to what looked like the second juice ball era. 30% drop in terms of home run per fly ball rate. So substantial decrease in the number of balls that are leaving the guard. You can put a number on exactly, or I shouldn't say exactly, but around 30 to 40 balls that last year would have been guaranteed home runs that have died at the warning track this year from watching these games. I feel like I see one or two at night so I could put the number even higher. but it's very apparent based on the hitter's body language that when they get into a ball,

then it dies at the warning track. They give that little hop, that Sammy Sosa hop when they connect with the ball. And then they're just throwing their hands up, like how did it fall into a glove? So the ball is clearly on more often than not circumstances dying at the wall this year, which is very frustrating watch, particularly if you have overs. But we've seen these totals come all the way back up now to 8.2 as of today. 8.40 when course field is involved, overs are hitting about as often as you, you'd expect now for the month of May.

Earlier in the month, they were hitting around 56%. So I think the books have certainly leveled it out. I said earlier in the month they were sitting around 7.3, 7.4. We've middled out now on your average total for the day. So books seem like have finally adjusted to what the run environment should be. Also have things like the left field and Camden yards to contend with. They move that left field back 40 feet. And right-handed hitters at Candon yards are hitting about 220 versus hitting about 250 last

year. So there's a lot of factors at play, but certainly the humidors and the baseballs are toying with everything more than anything else. Just one more thing I'll mention. If you just took the same batted balls that we had last year and carried them over to this year, you look at the expected metrics. Expected batting average should be 253. It is 233. Expected slugs should be 435. It's 371. So substantial gaps between the performance of the baseballs last year versus this year. So I was not laughing about the Mets, Chad, being up six games. I was laughing at the sense that I'm sure Sean remembers this. And I think it might have been 06.

The Phillies were 10 games behind the Mets in September. We came back. We won the division. And that's just baseball. So in May, yeah, being six games back, it kind of stinks. But the same time, I don't know. It could be worse. Like I last night, Scherzer had an elbow thing.

And I don't want to be an evil guy. But, you know, deep down inside, I was like, good, great. But apparently he's not. that hurt. So all things going to go, good for the Mets. I'll get the Grom back pretty soon. It's a good time to be a Mets fan. They were playing well until June of last year, though. I mean, they were on top of the division and then absolutely tanked in the second half once the Grom got hurt. So, I mean, this stuff changes on a fly. Like you said, if Scherzer's hurt and DeGrom doesn't come back healthy, I would certainly have significant concerns about the

bats. I'm not touching their futures because I know the moment I do, they're going to go downhill. And Sean, just hearing you talk about this year started. I talked to a couple pros who, you know, Baseball is the ultimate grind. There's really nothing comparable to it if you're a sports better. It's truly, I mean, I talk all the time with you, I'll chat with it. Like, I'll lose a ton of money on a Sunday. And by Monday morning, it has to kind of be out of my mind. Baseball is that on steroids.

Like literally, I might have one game to bet on that Monday, you know, the Monday night game, and then I'm good for the rest of the week. I might have a Thursday game. Then I'm good until Sunday. Baseball, these guys every day, you have 10 games going on, whatever. What's that been like this season where so much is unknown with the balls, you know, you're saying they're different balls, different guys are saying that maybe it's because of the no spring training or the shorter spring training. That's why the bats were so

behind the pitching where usually it's the other way. And it's just just hearing you talk about it. What's that been like the grind this season trying to get down, you know, taking these dogs or taking these unders where it's really, there's no rhythm to it. Yeah. And with the short and spring training as well, you also had expanded rosters and more relief pitchers on those rosters too. So starters were going shorter in games and then managers were playing matchups much more heavily the rest of the game as well. So that contributed to the unders too. Now those rosters have shrunk a little bit. The relievers are starting to get tired. So I think things are normalizing back to what we'd expect a little bit. I've been all over the place, though. I was down as early as much as seven units early in the season.

Ended up finishing April up nine units. We had a big run to end the month. And then the first day of May 1st, it was a Sunday, bloody Sunday. I lost eight units on that day. It's the biggest losing day I've had in four years of doing this. Absolutely miserable. I've ended up clawing some of that back. I believe I'm sitting around plus four and a half, plus five on the year. We're going to continue to grind. Usually that May month, as in-season data starts to get factored in, and I start to trust the in-season data that we're seeing around the quarter pole, 40 games, 35 games, that's when I start to have more successes as we get into the summer because I figure out

who these players are in season. But you're right. It's an absolute grind. You sort of have to put your worst days behind you immediately and look forward to the next day. Just sort of put that completely out of your head. You can't judge or adjust your projections based off of what you saw today. You could do it off of recent data and seeing how these totals are adjusting, how the weather is improving, et cetera.

But I've had to aggressively adjust my totals, as I mentioned. And I'm actually proud to say I've been ahead of the market in both months. Even though unders were winning at a 59% rate in April, I actually hit 62% of my bets on unders. Overs were winning, like I said, 41% of the time. I think I hit 44% of those in April. And then the same thing has been true. In May, I've been about 2 to 3% ahead of the market on totals. The real difficulty has been with the favorites.

Favorites were crushing early in April and particularly first five favorites. First five favorites won 68% of the time. That's dropped over 12% in May. So everything has sort of come back to Earth. There always is regression to the mean. That said, I still try to project these games on an individual basis and bet my numbers, don't bet teams. I can't tell you most of the time, aside from the Reds who I know are absolute crap,

I can't tell you what these teams records are most of the time. I don't look at standings. I don't really carry over results. I really do try to filter out everything as much as possible. I'm aware of who's on top of the division. Generally, how teams are doing. I knew that all the NL West was trending over 500 at one point. But by and large, if you asked me a random team's record on a random day,

I probably couldn't tell you. Would you still take the under on the red 60 wins for the season? That's right about where they're trending right now. That's unbelievable. mid-70s team coming into the year was roughly their season win total. If you still played them out as that, the rest of the way, I think they're pacing for 63 or 64 wins. But it's so hard to project this team because their owner or team president,

I should say on opening day, they traded Jesse Winker to Seattle. And he basically admitted like go root for somebody else if you don't care about us not spending money. It was pretty insulting. And it seems like the players with that had just quit from the jump. So there were six and four in their last. 10, I said at some point people would lose money trying to fade them on the night-to-night basis.

That has definitely happened of late. But yeah, I don't see any reason why their players have any means to be competitive other than wanting to keep a job of the major leagues. When you had that Sunday, bloody Sunday, give me the details. Where were you? Did you watch every game? What kind of bets were you losing? Simon, what are you laughing at?

You're just a twisted man. I believe that might have been Mother's Day. no better ones to relive their worst days. These are like, I want to know every detail of that misery. Now, so it was, it was the week before. So it was May 1st. I was actually at my parents' house. And it's very difficult to be with people who you love and want to spend time with

them and not be distracted by what's going on. But then you flip open the action app and you see that you're trending for like a four and 20 day. And you're just like, what is going to happen? Because usually, you know, at the start of my nights, I'm either doing very well at all my bets are doing very poorly on all my bets. By the end of the night, things usually swing. You know, there's always that regression and games sort of flip late, bullpen blowing, blowup season is back in full effect now that we have fewer relievers on these teams. But it's very difficult

to be with people that you love and want to spend full time with them and not be completely distracted by you having the worst professional day you've had in four years. So yeah, I mean, it's difficult. Maybe shut that phone off, put it away when you're with people that you love. So you're not completely distracted. But listen, by, By the next day, I had not completely forgotten about it because I was still bummed out, but I had to move forward and focus because you have a full slate of games on that Monday to reallocate your capital and your time to. And if you're going to be distracted by those results, it's not the game for you.

Sean, you are a surprisingly emotional guy. I don't buy the fact that by Monday you had let it all go. Not all of it go, but you have to let most of it go. You know, if I'm going to sit down and project out these games, these 15 games, we usually have every day in my model and take three to four hours with it in addition to finding all these lines, shopping all these lines and putting in my money. Believe me, there's that hesitancy there. You don't want to put out 20 units worth of allocation knowing that you just lost eight the day before. And am I going to lose all 20 of these today? Like, yeah, I mean,

it's definitely difficult, but you have to find a way to overcome it if you want to just keep plugging along with this. Like Simon said, it's an absolute grind. You never know when your good days are going to come. You never know when your bad days are going to come. You just have to keep at it. Sometimes I love a slate and end up getting killed. Sometimes I hate a slate, ended up having a phenomenal day. I really don't know. It's honestly why I hate the concept of quote unquote best bets in general. I may love a bet. Absolutely love a bet. May have two units on it, three units on it. I generally don't go over two or three units on an individual baseball game because there is so much variance. But I may absolutely love a game and they may lose 11 nothing. There's just no way to control it.

it's not like a football game where you see it play out over four quarters and have ability to jumping live at multiple points or what have you. I think each individual baseball game is just such a random sample of who teams are that you just kind of have to throw it away. Baseball is a professionals game in every single way. What do you make of, you know, sports is nothing without conspiracy theories. what do you make of the conspiracy theories about the games on Apple TV, ESPN Plus, just to sort of define it a little bit. There are stories out there that sort of these prime time games, juice balls are making those games in particular go over.

I'm starting to buy into it a little bit. There's some funky stuff going on with these Apple TV games prime. Now they're on Peacock as well, replacing some of the soccer covers that they had. I need to dig into it further and actually go through each of these individual games and figure out what the trend is for overs and unders. But I can tell you, it's definitely higher than whatever our percentages on the season. Now, I don't know if it's a huge sample. I'd have to say definitively so. But I know that they're mixing in old balls and new balls.

It's very obvious when you get two batted balls that are hit at the same launch angle, the same velocity in the same park. and one goes out and the other does. So they're mixing in new and old baseballs. Where they're mixing them in, I don't really know. Are they doing it with intentionality? I couldn't tell you. But I've seen enough conspiracy theories from hitting coaches, players, what have you. There's a good article about the Phillies out there.

I think it was from Sports Illustrated, I could be wrong. But about how their batted ball data at home and on the road is virtually identical. They're actually top five in expected metrics. I believe we're both pitching and hitting. I do like how the Phillies are trending. have a World Series future on them. And I think their cool start at home offensively maybe contributing to the fact that they're sub 500

at the moment. Their run differential is plus 18. So they should be trending a bit better. But there are certain teams like the Phillies whose home road splits are so dramatic that it's almost telling that there's something going on with the ball. Addition to the fact that we have those humidors

in all 30 parks now. Last year, I believe they were only in seven or eight parks. Now they're in all 30. MLB is said that offense should increase actually due to the humidors and what would normally be warmer climates as we get into the summer. So we'll see if we end up getting more offense during the summer than we had relative to last year. Maybe it's going to be a dip in cooler temperatures than an increase in warmer temperatures. But we haven't seen it play out yet.

So for now it's a guessing game. But I rely on what the hitting coaches and what the players are saying. They say there's something up with the balls I tend to believe. Yeah. As a Phillies fan, I'm hoping that Dodgers series is kind of a turning point for this team because they- 100%. They really showed that they can play with anybody. Yeah.

Right, exactly. So when you're looking at this point of the season, are there any futures, like, there are teams that you haven't bet coming into the year that now you're looking at their future saying, you know what? This team's going to have a nice little run here. They have a favorable schedule or division that they can make a run to the postseason. Do you have anything that's like, maybe not to be a long shot, just a future you've been eyeing up lately for this, you know, half of the quarter of the season in who you like at this point. Yeah, so the Yankees aren't going to win at a hundred and 22 to win pace the rest of the year. That's where they're trending right now. the raise are still sitting around six to one, six and a half to one in the ALEs. The Yankees have another game with the O's today. They have three more with them until they start their season series with the raise, I believe March or May 25th, so a week from now.

That's when I jump in on the raise. The raise ended up pulling away to win that division last year. I have preseason futures on the Blue Jays. They've fallen pretty far back. But knowing that you're going to get that entire season series with the raise, factored it against the Yankees, getting six and a half to one, If you want to pounce on a bigger long shot to win a division, I'd say that's where I'd jump in. The Phillies, the one concern that I have is Bryce Harper may need Tommy John.

Apparently, he's going to try deaching for a little while and seeing how that goes. He's been tremendous at the plate. I mean, looks right back to his MVP self. We'll see if he can keep that up. They're terrible defensively, but they should hit as well as anyone. And I said they're actually one of four teams who are in the top five for expected stats, both offensively and on the pitching side. So they're trending very well. I like how their offense shapes up.

I've said if they can add bullpen pieces, I think they're as good as a World Series long shot as anyone. I bet them 40 to one preseason. They're still around that number now. Guaranteed three-game wildcard series. You're giving me Noel, Wheeler, and Ranger Suarez in those three games, they can play with anybody. So if they're able to get into the dance,

the Phillies to make a run. And I like the way the brewers are trending. That's one of my other preseason futures too. Eric Lauer starting on Friday, you could take a look at him. he is developed into the top of the rotation starter. They have four elite starting pitchers, a great bullpen. And by the way, their offense was around 16th to 18th and expected metrics last year.

They're top five this year. So that offense is much improved. Christian Yelich looks healthy again. Rowdy to Les crushing the ball. Really like the way the Brewers are shaping up. Bet them big in the Central again this year. And I think they're alive to win the World Series. Just real quick.

Isn't that crazy of this Yankees thing? Because I know just of just two groups that are real high-level groups, they were huge on fading the Yankees coming to the season. They bet they're underwin totals. They bet them, I think, third or fourth coming that division. Like they had Tampa, they had the Blue Jays above them, and they had them in Boston fighting for that last spot. I mean, it is crazy what the Yankees are doing,

but you can say they're the best team in baseball right now, right? Them are the Dodgers? Certainly, I believe they have the highest, they have a 75-run differential of the Dodgers of 83, so they have a high-s-season American League. Their pitching has been tremendous and very deep. Garrick-Cole has gotten to the point where people were underrating him based off of the sticky stuff, that whole fiasco.

He's been tremendous. But their rotation is much deeper than it has been in previous years. Got a guy like Michael King in the bullpen who looks completely untouchable. Chapman has been a little bit concerning. But by and large, besides the back end of their lineup, I think the Yankees are pretty much a complete team. And we know they're going to add pieces of the deadline. So getting off to a hot start like this is only going to increase pressure on ownership

to end up spending, which they haven't done in previous years. No, they did it go out and get a couple bats last year. but yeah, I think the Yankees are definitely shaping up well. There were some projection systems that had them around 97 wins coming into the season. That's where I'd put their prorated total. I had them closer to 90. I think Fanggrass had them closer to 90. Pocoda had them closer to 97.

So there was a discrepancy between whether the Blue Jays or the Yankees were the best team. But I mean, as of now, it certainly looks like since they were able to beat up on the blue jays in the head to head that they were going to come out on top. But listen, like I said, they're not going to play at 122 win pace the rest of the way. at some point they will hit a skid. And my whole point of that was just to, if you're a better, understand that you're going to get a lot of value this rest of the year going against the Yankees.

Yankees are already a public team. So you might be getting an extra plus 40 plus 50 bump every game going against them now. Just because, again, they're 9-1, their last 10, 20 and 9 to start the season. People are just really hyping up these Yankees team. So if you're at baseball better and you're looking for a lazy method, I'm telling you, fading the Yankees is going to be very profitable coming up. pretty soon because they just reek of that team that you just talk about. They're way above people's projections.

And this isn't the San Francisco giants of last year, right? This isn't one of those models where, you know, they break the mold. This is the Yankees. People kind of knew what they were going to be. I just like the value of thinking you're going to get good bets fading them later on in the season. Yeah, I mean, their floor was so high. And you look on the opposite spectrum of a team like the Reds who were trending better finally. Yeah.

You've been able to get value in the Reds for about a week to 10 days. The Red Sox 15 and 22. They projected closer to 8.5.1.2. team. They haven't had injuries. Chris Sale will come back at some point probably, but there's no reason to believe that the Red Sox are going to win 40% of their games the rest of the way. They should eventually regress, play like an 85-1 team the rest of the way. They may finish at 500, but that's exactly where I'd put them if I was to parade out their one total. Sean Zorillo, as always, you have proven you are more eloquent about baseball than just about

anybody in the United States of America. Sean Zerillo, the most eloquent, Baseball analyst in the country. That's your new moniker. Well, Billy Bean said it's hard not to be romantic about baseball, but it's hard for me not to be eloquent about baseball. You're 100% right. It is like such a good game to wax poetic about, even when we're talking numbers.

You know what you can do, fans? If you don't know anything about betting baseball, you can follow Sean Zerillo in the Action Network app. He tracks every one of his bets. He gives explanations on what he's doing. You can follow him on Twitter. Twitter at Sean Zorillo on Twitter. He will link to his bets in the Action Network app.

It's the best way to go. Sean Zirillo, you are a true professional. Thank you for coming on the favorites podcast for Matt Mitchell, for Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Don't forget, listen to Sean Zerillo on payoff pitch. Listen to him on the Action Network podcast, UFC preview every Friday. This has been the favorites podcast from the volume podcast network. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify.

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