The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Sports Betting Mailbag Part 2

Episode Date: March 4, 2022

After professional sports bettor Simon Hunter bared his soul on Tuesday describing his journey from wee English lad to hardened New Jersey gambler, Action Network host Chad Millman invites him once again to respond to our listeners most frequent questions. Together they cover popular sports betting topics, including touts, chasing, habits to avoid, books to read and so much more. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it.

With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

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I am joined, as always, by my BFF, my companion, professional better, Simon Hunter. Simon, we're going to pick up right where we left off, and we talked about this all year long, and I think a lot of people would be interested to hear your perspective on it. but NFL is the hardest thing because it's a sport. Everybody is betting. And in professional betting, a lot of guys, they make their money in the sports no one's paying attention to. They're betting tennis.

They're betting baseball. They're betting college hoops. They're betting WNBA. Why bet the NFL? Why focus on that as a professional better? I get paid the most in the silent course. Football is king. And if I want to get 100K down on a football game on Sunday,

No problem. If I want to get 100K down an NBA game on a Tuesday, almost impossible. It's like the NFL books are so happy to take big money because they want to balance the books. And what do pros do? We bet the books. So like professionals, that's the hardest sport. Like they hate me. They don't want me in there betting. So with runners, that's why I love New Jersey so much. It's like I can have a runner with 20 online accounts. Vegas can't even compare. That's why like, again, I don't want to shoot on pros still living in Vegas. plenty of guys I work with still live there. They can't touch betting in New Jersey as professional.

It's like if you're a sports bet, this is heaven. There's so many sports books. They all want your money, especially as someone like me who just bets home dogs. So if you're someone like me that bets professionally and you bet NFL, which it's the hardest sport like Chad is alluded to, it's very hard. College basketball, women's basketball, that's moneymaker right there. Like pros I know that do women's basketball, some of them have 80%. But they can't get down more than 1,000, 2,000 in certain books. And they get banned constantly.

They're runners. They're just some nobody. Some books won't take more than $100 bet than that because it's just like they don't want to have too much exposure to women's basketball, like I just talked about. I asked Bob, how can I make the most money in this? Like, what's the best thing to do? Like, what sport? And he told me what's the easiest sports?

He told me what the hardest sports and which ones I can make the most money from? He said, like NFL, it's hard. but when you get the right system, it's really easy. Like once you figure it out and you kind of get it going and again, it depends on every season because it's always changing. Football is always evolving. But yeah, for me, it was definitely a money thing where it's like I can get paid the most from clients and it's like the biggest sport.

Like if I have 100 clients, 85, 90 of them bet NFL, maybe three of them bet cricket. And the cricket girl, she makes a ton of money betting, but there just isn't the demand. You know what I mean? There's just like people just don't have the same kind of interest for those kind of things. We had a lot of questions about parlays. We would talk about Moneyline parles, money line underdog parlays in the show a lot. I went back and did the math on my betting throughout the year. And this is tying in a lot of what we talked about earlier because it's about getting to know yourself as a better and what makes you comfortable.

And getting back to basics, as you talked about after a couple things like, getting in your head. If not for the money-lined underdog parlayas I kept chasing, like, I would have made so much more money. And so, you know, tell people the folly and the joy of parley's. Good idea, bad idea. This is to the most basic gambler. Yes, never do a parley for the rest of your life. You won't listen, though, because parleyes are fun. So there's no real point of me going into it. But yes, if you're a, if you're betting a hundred on a game straight, like football example, you like New England Patriots, you bet a hundred on them straight, that's great. If you want to do a parlay with the New England Patriots, the Jaguars and all

these other teams thrown together, I'll do more than five, ten bucks. Like you're just, every team you add, your number goes down so much of winning. So I do parlayers a lot of time. I would say for our Moneyland Round Robin thing, we do with the underdogs, that's more, that's safe. You're paying for these underdogs because if you just go, two for three, you're going to get your money back in a little more. If you go four for one on those money line underdog, like Brown Robbins, that's crazy money. So I always tell people not to do parleyes, but I do them too because they're fun. I just do it for such small, small, small amounts. If I do 20, you know, 16 game parles every season, every Sunday, like I'll, you know, if I go to

sports, like I'll fill a card out and do like a $5 or whatever it is, you're not betting that to make money. So the hardest part of my job, you know, the hardest part of my job. job is this is a free show. When you're doing a free show, people are always going to listen to this and be like, okay, but I'm going to do my own thing. I'm going to trust myself, which I'm completely supportive of. It's your own money. When people pay for my picks, like win or lose, they're going to ride with me, which is great, because usually we're going to win. They're not going to ride with me one bad week, and then the next week take off because I lost the last week. And then all of a sudden I go four and no, they go, oh, I want to bet with them now. Then I go, whatever, two and three.

And they're like, well, I could have gone three and three. So that's the constant fight with this kind of job doing a free show like this where my clients like they're just it's all good all the time like even when I lose they're just so supportive they're just such good people so I definitely think it's different where you're paying for fixments it's just more like you know people listen to this show and it's kind of like a guy like I'm not always going to be right like I wish I could be but this is a real show with real fix like if we can go above 50% that's that's that's what I'm hoping for to this show because again we take a lot of underdogs and that's that's the key to doing what we do is take underdogs.

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Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only least, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.

Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people

who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan,

so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your part. podcast. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me. Not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.

So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get

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They see treasure and pebbles. They see a windy path that could lead to adventure. And they see you. Their fearless guide is this fascinating world. Find a forest near you and start exploring at Discover the Forest Brought to you by the United States Forest Service and the ad council. So you've mentioned this a few times. You have a client list, people paying for picks.

People are asking on Twitter, what is a tout? You talked about that one of the guys he used to work with started selling picks outside sort of the guidelines that are established by your syndicate. It's a very nuanced difference. Explain the difference between being a tout and. having a client list. All right. So a tau would be to these people listening, like it'd be if you're on social media,

any type of social media, and you are giving someone your money for their picks in return, which, again, I know people hate tauts and are bad about them, but I'm a big believer. And if you're good at something, you never do it for free. Now, you have types, which they don't matter if you win or lose. You just sell them the store. I bet, you know, we go NBA. Bet the Nets playing against the Sixers and he'll bet the Sixers. He'll show whatever ticket wins, okay?

You'll only pay him once, but that's all he really cares about is getting that money. So someone like me, it's a little different where, you know, I could easily sell picks if people online. People offer me money constantly. I like being free, but I'm sure someday, why am I putting in 80 hours of work just to post free pick on the Internet? It's like I make so much more money betting than anything I could make. doing it media. Like I do love media, but like, am I going to make a million a year doing talk shows? I have no idea, but probably not, but selling picks, dude, like I could make probably a million bucks. I mean, you gave me such a big platform now. You know, if I just wanted to charge a couple hundred a

weekend, I can make really good money. But I just don't want to do that because I make enough sports betting as is, and I'm already selling picks to a group of people. So do I have any issue coming on here and send people my biggest bets and things like that? No, because I've already bet them. So it's like, it's not like I'm going against my group by giving out bets. I still, I'm giving out my bets to my clients first, but then I come on here and do it. But my advice to people is just don't pay for fix. There's so much free information out there where if you're one of these people that you're going to bet what you believe anyway, like you're that stubborn, you think you know what you're doing regardless. Listen to all these free podcasts.

Action Network has like five football shows. Like there's so many different places that I can give you better information. Find who you like and who you trust and who you kind of. disagree with because the first step that's coming to a good sports better is realizing you don't know anything. I don't care if you watch football every Sunday. You know every player's name. It's irrelevant. It's truly irrelevant to what we're doing because we're just betting numbers. We're not really betting names and faces like that. So I just want people to be wary of paying picks because of things like that. This relates to two things that I want us to talk about, our final two topics for part

two of our podcast about answering your questions and sort of pulling back the curtain a little bit on the business. The first part is a lot of people ask what books should you read? And I think it relates to you sort of talking about information. And the second part is what habits are good and bad. I like talking about the books because the books I think lead to how you think about it, how I think about it. So if you have thoughts on, and you mentioned sort of listening to podcasts, it can be podcast too. The material that you look at to help you inform decision making and become a better analyst of risk.

Like I don't, again, it's not that I don't care about other people's opinions. I just usually don't listen to anyone else's opinions during football season because I don't want anything to screw with my head. Like, I already have enough pros calling me, giving me their crazy ass opinions and other shit they want to talk about. Like, there's some betting shows that like, I used to try to listen to some, but I just didn't do it because it would just irk me so much. But it's like, these guys are just talking.

in the out there. So for books, I have a weird approach to it where it's like, honestly, I've read a lot of history books. I'm into like World War II stuff and a lot of Navy Steel books, like about discipline. Because I think that's like more than anything else. I think it's the most important thing to sports betting is discipline. It's a very emotional thing. Like I have a system in the, I tried to go against it. Me and Chad are going to talk about the rest of my life, unfortunately, with the Kansas Chiefs to go against the Bengals. And it was like, not that I got too emotional, but I definitely let it get the best of me. Like I should have just trusted my numbers, trusting my system.

Taking a good number at seven and a half of the bangles, but I was just like, now, like they're the most over-hyped, overrated team since he's going to roll. So I would definitely say I've learned from all these different books. It's like if you're going to read books, Chad's going to give you some good gambling stuff here. To me, it's a lot of mental stuff. So I don't want to get too weird, but like art of war.

There's a bunch of different old school books you can read that it's just good for your mental habits. That's just as important as good gambling information. Well, it's interesting because I was going to say the same thing. And you and I didn't discuss this before we started the podcast, but I don't read a lot of gambling books. You know, there are there are good ones out there. There's like the logic of sports betting, right, by a guy named Ed Miller, really good sports betting book. There's a great old book by Larry Merchant, who a lot of older people will remember as the boxing analyst for HBO for years. He did a book called the National Football Lottery, which is his record.

relevant today as it was when he wrote it in 1972. He took $30,000 of an advance and spent a football season betting to see how well he could do with it. But the books I read are tangential to betting and they are about

how people process decision making and analyze risk. So the book Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Connaman is a book that I read. The undoing project by Michael Lewis, which was about Coneman and his partner in education and economic theory and sort of their relationship is a book that I read and liked a lot.

It's, you know, even Moneyball by Michael Lewis sort of makes you think about decision making in an entirely different way. Hey, Chad, it's Matt Mitchell jumping in really quick. I did ask around at Action Network to see if anybody. there had book recommendations. I do know a lot of the people that asked this question also wanted baseball books for the summer that related to betting. And the four recommendations I received internally were scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz, Trading Bases by Joe Pita, the only rule it has to work by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, and also fooled by randomness

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. There's actually a great book. I can't remember who wrote it. I'm going to look it up while we're talking, but there's a book called Traffic. It's all about how we drive and how it leads to different, how it reveals different kind of decision making. And a lot is by Tom Vanderbilt. A lot of it ends up being about PAC decision making and following the crowds. And traffic is the most literal interpretation of that, right? The reason why traffic jens end up happening oftentimes on highways is because people start merging too early. And they don't use the entirety of the road that is available. So you get antsy, you merge as soon as you get sort of onto the on-ramp, instead of going to the very end,

where you get to keep the traffic flowing for as long as possible. And then these traffic jams start, right? So the idea of understanding how people make group decisions and then trying to find a way to think differently about that is helpful for making, for sort of developing good habits about betting as it is just reading, hey, bet this. That actually I find to be a lot less helpful when trying to exist in this space and make good decisions in this space, which leads to one final thing, Simon. What are your good habits? What are your bad habits? Oh, man, I would say obsession. Like, if you're obsessed with what you do and you love it, I feel like, again, you always have to take time off like,

like you're a boy right now, but like when you're committed to something, you go all in and you take time for loved ones, everything like that, but it's like that habit of being obsessed with things. Again, it can be, it can be bad. Like you can let your life get out of control sometimes.

You have to keep it a little contained, but it's like, you know, we all have purpose and reading as anything in life and who knows the real purpose why we're here, but it's like once I started getting into the lab, quote-unquote, like really get into the numbers. And once my, my model started working out.

It's like I'm, I just started feeling like that feeling of. I'm exactly where I'm supposed to be. Like, I didn't feel like I was doing work, even though I was working 80 hours a week. It felt like I was having fun. And my biggest habit during the season is, Chad knows I'm always checking lines. I'll wake up at the middle of the night,

just roll over and just scroll through different books and lines and just see what movement, what's happening, check messages. And it's like a good habit to me to people would be, not just to be positive about everything, but it honestly helps me so much with what I do with my job where it's like,

Chad talked a little bit about my worst pets. Like, I can't lie. Look, those are miserable, dark days. Like, you lose a ton of your own money and you're losing other people's money that have entrusted you with a device. Like, it'd be like me telling you to buy a big time stock and a stock going to zero.

It's like the worst feeling in the world. I've just lost people who's really hard earned money. There's a lot of habits in life. And I think that's a great thing about sports, but a lot of it goes together. half the people that listen to this are going to be forever chasing. And like that depresses the hell out of me. It makes me super sad.

But that's just it. They're either they're a psychopath or they're just stubborn. And it's like no matter what, they're going to keep doing what they do. You know, we've had a good year. We've had good playoff runs. It's like, it don't matter. They're always just like, ah, this guy's off going to nada, not and nada.

That's probably the toughest thing where it's like, you've got to break habits to make good habits. So for bad habits, I mean, a lot of, there's a lot of, obviously, a lot of bad habits for it's betting, but the worst one obviously is chasing. And like, again, I've gone to zero a bunch of times in my life. You don't dwell on it. It's like you just, you just learn from it and then try to change from that. It's like stop putting 100% of your bankroll into these bets.

Like that's something I had to learn early on because they'd be like, say I was at 10K and all of a sudden I was at 5K because I'd had 10 bad bets and I'd lost 5K. I would just take off 5K and put it on one game and be like, now I'm going to double my money on this. It don't work like that. It's just so hard to do those kind of things. Yeah, definitely bad habits number one for me is people stop chasing. Like I know you're sitting there right now. Listen to this. Please turn the page.

Start over. That money's gone. Stop chasing. Yeah. Chasing to me is the single worst thing you can do as a better. I mentioned earlier that Chargers Chiefs game, I was totally chasing. I was antsy. I was upset.

All those bad habits. It had been a bad weekend. You're frustrated because you feel like you're doing good math. You're doing the right things and they're not going your way. There are moments where after a betting weekend, where it's a Monday or Tuesday and I'm still thinking about it if it's gone bad and I think to myself, be a fucking professional. Obviously, I'm not a professional better,

but I've been doing it long enough to know that I'm not the guy who is bedding. more than I can afford, which is the second thing. And B, I'm not the guy who can't shake it off and feels like I have to chase to make my money back. If you're doing this, we've talked about this so many times. If you're doing this, hopefully you're listening to this podcast. It's because you're doing it for the enjoyment and to do it for a long period of time. It's not because you think you're going to get rich, right? And I say this to my kids all the time because we'll talk about betting.

And it's a scary thing to talk about betting with your kids. kids, I remind them, their college funds aren't at risk. We're not at risk of not having food on the table. We're not at risk of not being able to pay for the house. Like, we're doing it because we like the enjoyment. We're going to make smart decisions. And if we lose a weekend, it's okay. It's only pride. Like, that's it. Right. Where you get in trouble is when you chase, when you overbet, you try to make it back all at once. Like, you never hear anyone at action network talking about trying to make it back all at once. These are people who've been doing it for years. They bet a very specific part of their bank roll. They know what they're doing. Those are the lessons

you take away. I would say those are the bad habits. The good habit, the one thing I would add is you have to do enough work, put enough work in, whether it's the obsessive level that Simon is at or sort of the daily level that I'm at to understand what you're comfortable betting. And I don't mean the money. I mean, everyone is good at something, right? Everyone feels like athletically, oh, you've really good aim, or you've always been good at shooting a basketball, or you can throw a great spiral, or you've got great hand-eye coordination, or you can put, whatever it is. Same thing in betting. There are certain markets that you're going to be more comfortable betting it, and it takes you time to figure out how your mind thinks what your analysis tells you so you truly understand

what you should be betting and where you're going to be comfortable. And then, like when you should be tailing someone because you feel like they're smart and you've got a little bit on the side that you're comfortable betting, but you should with the majority of your money and make the majority of your bets in the markets where you feel like you've unlocked an advantage in some way. We talk about all the time. Simon and I love home underdogs. We love betting against the public. We love seeing how numbers have moved and trying to tie our success into that. And then you can narrow down the teams that you like based on those core principles. But you've got to find your principles.

Well said. Simon, we've done a lengthy interview. We have broken it up into two parts. We have told your origin story, the creation myth. We have gone through how to become a professional better. We have gone through touts. We have gone through habits. We have gone through books you can read.

You name it. We covered it. And if we didn't, we got a long time until football starts. So we can get back to it. We can answer even more questions. For now, this has been the favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network for producer Matt Mitchell, for professional better Simon Hunter. I am Chad Millman. Download us at Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe.

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