The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NFL Draft Betting w/ Matthew Freedman

Episode Date: April 19, 2022

The NFL Draft is approaching! And to kickoff our first of three betting episodes covering the most exciting days of the NFL offseason, Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome FantasyPros head of content and mock draft maven Matthew Freedman to the show. Together the trio discuss the draft prop bets they're currently making, speculate on where the top quarterbacks will land, and so much more. Plus, for those in Las Vegas for the NFL Draft next week, follow this link to RSVP for Action Network's free Happy Hour in downtown Vegas on April 27th! https://www.actionnetwork.com/press/action-nfl-draft-pre-party Hope to see you there! #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Gamble problem. Call 1-800-next-step or text. Next step to 533342 in Arizona. 1-800 gambler or visit fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, and Virginia, 1-888-789-777, or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1-800-2707-1-17 for confidential help. Michigan, 1-877-770 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-800-8-9-9-978-9 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are going to do one of my favorite shows of the non-N-FL season today. because over the past few years, nothing has become more exciting or more interesting

to veteran betters and net new betters as the NFL draft market. Truly, like for years, it was an event that a lot of veteran betters were looking at because it was the offshore illegal books that were taking all the bets, right? And now, especially our sponsor, Fandul, are offering so many,

many markets on betting the NFL draft. And look, it is, it is the ultimate crapshoot. It is the ultimate whisper game. It is as much fun as anything out there if you are looking to get a little bit of a sweat on an event that is really just reading a list, right? But it's the most exciting list that's going to be read between now and the start of the NFL season. And this year, this year, it's happening in Vegas.

And for like the first time in two years, Action Network is going out into the universe. We're having an event. We, for anyone in Vegas, anyone in Vegas next week, we are hosting a pre-NFL draft happy hour at Circa's Stadium Swim in downtown Las Vegas. It's Wednesday, April 27th. We've got an open bar. We've got surprise guests.

We've got betting tips from some of your favorite action pros. Got to be 21 and over. It's totally free. It does require an RSVP. If you're in Vegas next week, check out the link in this episode description to RSVP. I got to say the last time we did an event in Vegas, it was March Madness of 2019.

And we had like 500 people there. Simon Hunter, my co-host, my BFS. My companion, my compadre, you and I were going to talk about the NFL draft. We're going to bring in my nemesis, Matthew Friedman, director of content for fantasy pros and betting pros, former Action Network colleague, who we still love dearly, at least some people do. So, Simon, at this time last year, we were talking about the draft. And you famously, famously, before we bring Friedman in, who was a draft expert, Freeman a couple years ago, when he was at Action Network, sent this Jerry McGuire type memo about why we should cover the draft and turned himself into a draft expert.

But last year, you famously had late breaking news before the markets knew that the 49ers who had been saying all along, the reports had been all along, they were going to take Mack Jones number three. you bet huge six figures against Mac Jones being drafted number three. And then about 48 hours before the draft, you came on the podcast and you said Mac Jones will not be number three. And for the next 48 hours, that was the conversation right up until Trey Lance was drafted. Tell us about that process. Remind people of what that process is like so we can get some sense of the drama and the tension that goes into the draft betting prospects.

Yeah, definitely a unique situation that was where I had my own, everyone makes your own draft board, especially anyone betting this stuff. You have your own draft board and then you go through everyone else's draft board. So I, again, I like Mack Jones, but I looked at Mack Jones is not a top three, top four of quarterback in that draft class. I just saw better upside in these other quarterback. So I always had doubt about it. And again, we had the whole, the whole media world telling us for literally a month and a half, two months that it was a, it was pretty much a guarantee of Mac Jones was going to be the third pick overall. And I kept saying, I just didn't get it. And then, yeah, basically, it's all rumors. Like, we'll talk on this show today about all the rumors

I'm hearing. That's a lot of what these next couple weeks are. It's so much BS. And you have to sift through all this BS to try to find a needle on a haystack. It's like, okay, if good information is matching up with another person's really good information and you trust both sources, literally nine times out of 10, that's good info. Again, there's a lot of guys, especially in sports gambling, that they give such shit info because they're trying to move lines. Like, they know if I put something out there, say it's just to my 100 clients, that's going to move a number.

These people have money to move numbers. I've gotten duped plenty of times. I can't tell you how many times I've been duped. But that's, again, that's me being young. I've learned over the years of what's, who's too screwing me and who's not. And last year's a rare exception where I thought that line's, with Mac got some really good intel, basically a long story short, from a bookmaker in a California area. And this guy was giving us good info where, okay, we could trust this guy.

There was something fishy about why people got bed in Trey Lance to go third overall. And I told you, though, I had PTSD from it where when Goodell announced the pick, I heard Mac Jones in my head, even though he had said Trey Lance. I literally collapsed to the floor. So that's one of those where this year I'm not betting anywhere near as much as I did last year. things could change, but at this point, I'm not close to six figures. So I do have some money out there. We'll talk about it as we get into the show here.

But that was definitely a unicorn situation where it was like getting some really good info. And all of a sudden, my phone was blowing up because it was like, okay, this checked out and everyone was jumping on this line. So that was, that was crazy. I think we literally had the show during the draft, right? We did a Thursday show. I had my bat phone. I had my other phone. And it was like, I was getting bombarded.

I hopped off the call with you. I literally drove to AC. I pulled over, right? Because at the time, I think only had one runner. I had to pull over on the side of the AC Expressway, do some video with you. You guys put the video on. By the time I got to Atlantic City,

the number had already moved from, I think it was like plus 900, maybe down to plus 300 by the time I got there. So at 45 minutes from an hour time, and I was like, all right, I love Chad, but that's the last time that's happening. But no, we've broken other stuff, but that was definitely one of those.

I was like, holy shit, that was crazy that. The info got out that quick. And like that one day, that line moved plus 600. It was, that was really fun last year, that draft. Hey, Freeman, while Simon is talking, I can see you on the Zoom here, smiling. Tell people when you started to realize the opportunity in the draft markets. I think it was the Baker Mayfield draft, which I feel like it all comes full circle. Now with, you know, questions about is Baker going to be traded in time for the draft?

but it was it was the Baker Mayfield draft. We had the five quarterbacks in the first round, which, you know, would have been one of the largest quarterback classes we've seen in NFL history. And so it was, that was a fantastic draft. And you did see the offshore books really starting to amplify the, the markets that they were offering there.

And it wasn't even just, you know, like a year, a couple years later that you see, especially with COVID hitting, you saw the legal, sports books start to put props out there because what else were people going to be betting on. So that was that was really the Baker Mayfield draft. And we had a similar situation that year where people thought Sam Darnold might be the number one pick. People thought maybe Josh Allen would be the number one pick. And then the day of, boom, the lines just move within 30 minutes and it's Baker Mayfield

as the number one pick. So, you know, we maybe will see a similar situation this year with Aidan Hutchinson, Trouin Walker, maybe Evan Neal is a potential number one pick. I think we're going to see some lines move pretty intriguingly the day of. Well, I mean, Simon just said something really interesting. Everyone makes their own draft board. And then you start making your bets off of that. Freeman, back to you before I go to Simon with the same question.

When did you make your first draft board? and then how quickly did you start investing in the market? I did release a way too early mock for the 2022 class the week after the 2021 draft, and I did come up actually a top 50 big board for all of the prospects that I looked at when completing that mock. But I didn't go back to that big board until after the Super Bowl. Simon, at what point did you start making bets on the NFL draft this year.

And who did you bet? I would say every year is different for sure. Everyone has different times where they do different things where I used to start prepping in December. And nowadays, I probably don't start until, I don't know, I got back early March. I started getting into it, I'd say first week of March. And then by, you know, the second or third week of March,

I'll have my actual draft board up. Because, again, I steal from, because I don't watch college football. You know, it is during the NFL season, you're just locked in. So I start getting to college football around bowl season. I'll start watching tape on guys that I read about and things like that. But it really is a long process. So a lot of these experts spend the whole year doing it because it's just so many players to go through.

So for me and my draft board, I would start saying I really started betting it building out mid-March. And then again, last year was kind of a fluky situation. I really had a good read on that. And I was able to bet it all month and a half until the draft where that was an advantage. where now that we're so close, the most I can get down is, again, depends on the sports book. Most I can get down as a grand per bet. Like that's, they kind of want to limit their exposure because sports books are getting really smart at this stuff.

So I would say the bets start pouring in mid-March. And the only stuff I've really touched so far has been the QB stuff because, you know, me, I love betting quarterbacks. And I just think this is a really interesting class because, again, we'll dive more into this class. But it is a unique class where people really didn't know who the number one quarterback was until these last couple weeks and the number one pick overall, which I love Hutchinson. I think that's great value.

And that's something again, we're going to talk about on the show coming up. Yeah, the second Simon's point, this year is very different than last year. Last year, it was heavy immediately betting. And it was a marathon that was a sprint the entire time up until the draft. This year is very different. I made two bets pretty quickly on the quarterback, who would be the number one quarterback. I believe we talked about that on the show I was with you guys previously. Malik Willis plus 200 and can you pick it plus 175.

But those were the only bets that I had sitting out there for about a month. I just really didn't like a lot of what I was seeing in the market. This year it's so unknown what's going to happen in the top 10 relative to last year. And it's only been the past couple of weeks that I have really started to get back into the market with some force. I think we've talked about. is just the demand. We last year we had five quarterbacks. That was like, I think it had every day,

either clients or other pros hit me up talking about the draft. This year it's been very stagnant. Like, sure, if I get together with a couple of the pros, we'll talk about it, but it's definitely different last year where it's just not, there's always excitement, right? It is the NFL draft. But that was crazy last year.

Like the five quarterbacks, it was nonstop talk. This year, what, it's been Brady. It's been Russell Wilson. There's been a lot of quarterback movement for us to talk about, not the draft. So that's definitely one thing I've, notice the difference of this year compared to last year for sure. And also the books haven't offered

nearly as many props this year as they did last year, which is why I was out of the market for a little bit just waiting for the books to put props out there. And so now you see the typical draft position props that you see out there, Evan Neal, over under three and a half or four and a half. But you still don't see in most sports books a lot of the other props, you know, that would be like Ravens, offensive player or defensive player with their first pick or Ravens, which position do they draft with their first round pick and, you know, have all of the positions listed there.

You don't see a lot of props like that at the books this year. And I think part of it is because they got hammered pretty good last year and they don't want that exposure. They don't want that heat. So you mentioned Kenny Pickett. And I do want to go sort of through the top of the draft board because I do think it's interesting right now. Probably three players that are getting a lot of heat. But you mentioned Kenny Pickett. Some draft notes from researcher extraordinaire at the Action Network, Evan Abrams,

who's brilliant at this. The players from the University of Pittsburgh who have been drafted in the first round in the last decade, Aaron Donald, 2014, you may have heard of him. Urban Meyer hasn't, but you guys may have heard of him. 13th overall to the then St. Louis Rams. And this year it'll be Kenny Pickett. The University of Pittsburgh quarterback drafted in the first round the last time before Kenny Pickett. Simon, can you name him? Is it my uncle, Dan Marino?

It is your uncle, Dan Marino. He's not really your uncle, though. No, but I was born. I told you I was born in Miami, the same hospital that he had his kids at. No way. I didn't know that. did tell me that? I don't remember that. Yeah, I was there for a cup of coffee that my mom swooped me back to England because I guess they wanted me to have American citizenship.

The 90s, what a weird time that was. The 80s, they were fucking whack the 80s. Don't even, listen, I can barely remember them. Do not, do not talk to me about the 80s. All right, so let's talk about the top of the board. You mentioned Simon Aidan Hutchinson. Like, where are we seeing opportunities? The Jags, they put the franchise tag on Cam Robinson. which all of a sudden meant Evan Neal, probably not going to go, number one overall, the left tackle from Alabama. So what are we seeing at the top of the board? Matthew Friedman, tell me about the opportunity.

Go. It's intriguing. So everyone is looking at Aiden Hutchinson thinking that he's going to be the guy. He's been the odds-on favorite for a majority of this process now. But Trouvon Walker is starting to gain steam. And I will just say there is a split. in the Jacksonville, the Jacksonville organization, where you have ownership wanting the golden boy, Aidan Hutchinson. You want general manager Trent Balke, who wants Trouin Walker, and then you

have the coaching staff, which is more of an offensive-oriented coaching staff, that has for Lawrence, one of the greatest prospects of all time, and they want to protect him. And so they're thinking maybe we can get an offensive tackle, an offensive lineman, someone to help solidify everything in front of him. And so I think you could see this going three different ways. And I'll just say one more thing, Trent Balke, we know that he has a very tumultuous history with Jim Harbaugh. Over his body, is he going to want to draft Jim Harbaugh's golden boy is the number one overall pick? Like, I know that's not a very professional way to think about it, but like Balke has made questionable decisions in the past. And Trayvon Walker,

is exactly the type of guy, the athletic marvel that Balke has historically wanted for his organizations. I think we've already seen this line move from Aidan Hutchinson towards Trouin Walker. It is going to increasingly move in that direction. And if I had to make a bet right now on the number one pick, it would be Trouin Walker and not Aiden Hutchinson. So we're going to make a bet based on your supposition that Trent Balke's feelings for Aiden Hutchinson's college coach are so, so poisonous that he would put his team in a bad position just to avoid drafting a player coach by Jim Harbaugh. It wouldn't be the first time that Balchies made a questionable decision when it comes

to Harbaugh, but it's not just that, not primarily that. It's the mock draft data. and it's the odds that we see up on the board. I don't think there's any value right now in betting on Aden Hutchinson, but there is value, I think, based on the mock draft data and based on where this line has been, and I think the trajectory of where it is going towards the draft. I would bet it now because it's going to be closer to minus money by the time draft A get here. Simon, you got a take on what Freedman is saying?

Yeah, I'm already heavily invested in Aiden, so I'm hoping he's wrong. I just, like you talk, as soon as they, they kind of addressed that offense line position, I just looked at my, looked at my board and thought, what's the smart thing to do here? You just take the guaranteed stud. We know, we know what Hutchins is going to do. Like, this kid is, he's a legit, he's one of the Watt brothers. He's just, he's built the same way as them, like the bosses. They're all these really, really speed, strong edge rushers and is back to back Super Bowls. We've seen kind of what's flipped these Super Bowls. It's these guys on the edges. So, When I'm looking at this team in Jacksonville, I honestly hate teams that draft high up in this position, don't take quarterbacks.

But they're in their perfect position. They don't need a quarterback. Like he just like, they have Lawrence. You get the D-N here. The offensive linemen, they've kind of already addressed it. So they got Josh Allen on one side, Hutchison on the other side. That's a huge deal for this Jacksonville team that they kind of need to build that inside out. They've got to build the O line, the D-line.

They've addressed the O line this off-season. I think they'll do it again next off-season. they'll add another piece of that. If you have Josh Allen, Josh Allen and Hutchinson can work out on that D-line, that's incredible for Jacksonville. So I'm hoping that Matthew's right that the line keeps moving, because I'll take more value on Hutchison because it was at minus 300 at one point. Once it dropped in minus 200, I dipped in. Like I started buying in on it. It's down to 170 now. I've been buying the dip that it's been dropping down. And I'm getting a little nervous because like he's talking about, there's a lot of rumors with Jacksonville. Apparently they really are unsure what they want to do right now.

So I still think it's good value because I think he is the no-brainer here. We've already heard the lines. They're praying that they pass on them. They really want this kid. So to me, I just don't see Jacksonville passing on it. But it is interesting that, you know, what are we nine days out, eight days out, and we still have no idea the number one pick. Well, it is interesting.

If you're Aiden Hutchinson, would you rather go to Jacksonville? or Detroit? Come on. Come on. Jacksonville. Is that based on... You get the crack kicked out of you and it's November. You can head to the beach

after a game in Jacksonville. Guess what you're doing in Detroit in November? You're miserable. It's not the place you want to be. Yeah, but he doesn't care. He's from there. That's why it's interesting to me.

That's true. I don't know. If I had to thank a guy with millions of dollars, I would say it would be nice to have five years in Jacksonville. Then he can move back to Detroit after his first contract.

I'm also thinking about the trajectory of each team more than I'm thinking about place to live and opportunity. I mean, much rather be Jacksonville. You already have the quarterback. I mean, as much as we laugh and joke about golf, it's like, again, Detroit, I don't want to be too hard on them. They're one of these teams that I kind of hate because it's like you're treading water until you have a quarterback. So this year, who knows what they're going to do, if I was them, I would just start drafting the quarterback like Malik Williams, whoever willis, whoever you're going to draft there, they're just going to do what the Browns kept doing.

The Browns kept saying an excuse of, oh, we're going to keep waiting. Let's draft Miles Garrett instead of drafting, you know, Patrick Mahomes or Deshawn Watson or even your boy Tribesky. It's like these teams just keep kicking the can down the road, and I hate teams that do that stuff. So I already read that Detroit's going to pass on the quarterback

on the top, too, and it just pisses me off because it's like you're just wasting time. You're wasting another year of your team. team's talent. All right, Friedman, I had said to Simon earlier in the year, I would not be surprised. In fact, I was placing a bet that there would not be a quarterback taken in the top 10. Am I right or wrong? Who will the first quarterback be? And where will they be taken? Chad, I think you might be right. The sharp mock drafts right now are pointing towards a quarterback going at Carolina,

number six to Carolina, but it's pretty split. They're pointing that way just a little bit, and I honestly don't think that's going to happen. I think they're going to try to trade back because they don't have picks in rounds two and three, try to trade back and maybe draft a quarterback later in the first round. if I had to say right now who's the number one quarterback and where he goes, I would say it's Malik Willis going number 20 to the Steelers. This is a bad quarterback class. It's just, it's not all time bad, but it's pretty close. The under two and a half quarterbacks taken, I know there's a lot of heat in mock drafts that we could see three, maybe four quarterbacks go, a couple

quarterbacks sneak into the end of round one. I will say consistently having studied mock drafts for years, quarterbacks are consistently over mocked in this exercise. We just routinely see one too many quarterbacks mocked. And so I'm going to take the under, two and a half quarterbacks. If we see a quarterback go in round one or in the top 10, it's only one.

And if I had to bet right now, I would bet no. Interesting. You're saying the under is two and a half. We can make the assumption that it's Malik Willis. from Liberty and Kenny Pickett from the University of Pittsburgh. If there were a third, who sneaks in there? Friedman, you go.

It's split between Desmond Ritter and Matt Corral. I would actually lean towards Corral. He's played in the SEC multiple years of production there, and he got an invitation to the NFL draft. And that doesn't mean everything, but guys who get invitations to the draft, especially if they are quarterbacks, they almost always go on the first day.

So that makes me a little bit nervous about the over under of two and a half because there are three quarterbacks who are going to be attending the draft. But still, this is a bad class. I'm thinking of Gino Smith slipping to day two. I could see something like that. This is what makes betting on the draft so interesting and a little bit absurd. You guys are both. Is deep in modeling, analytics, on-field translation. to what that means for a number against the spread or totals or player props, whatever it is.

What you just said, Friedman, I want to unpack this so people really understand how this is both completely fun and completely absurd. You're judging the sharp mocks, which I don't know who that is. We're judging the fact that historically quarterbacks are overmocked and you're trying to into it from the league's invite of a third quarterback that he is likely to be drafted on day one and what is the value of that potentially being in the first round. That is no way to make a decision on betting. It's totally ridiculous. It is totally ridiculous. But the thing is you can quantify some of this and put it in a model, which is still ridiculous on its own. But at least you can make some sort of fake numerical judgment. Simon, are you standing by?

your claim that a quarterback will be taken in the top 10. And if so, have you placed a bet on that quarterback? Yeah, of course. We all know if quarterback's going top 10, chat. It was, it was assonine when you said it. I said it was stupid. Now we sit here, Matthew Freeman's backing you up. What the hell is happening?

Like, it's like looking back and be like, did Josh Hounde deserve to be a top 10 quarterback? It's the same thing. These guys are just this raw ball of clay. Like if a kid's over 6'3, he's got a big ass arm, like this kid from Liberty does and he's fast, they don't care that he was throwing a garbage and that his numbers weren't great.

They're looking at, what can I take this clay and mold him into? So, I mean, I've heard Pittsburgh is obsessed with him. I can see them moving up and grabbing him. I can't see Carolina pass it just because, like you said, they don't have a second and third round pick. This is kind of it for this coaching staff. It feels like is he really going to tie his job to Sam Darnel this upcoming season

and they're going to be terrible in Carolina, and that's just it. Like, they're going to fire the coaching staff and maybe the GM there in Carolina. I could see them being desperate. So to me, I could see Malik making the top 10. I've actually bet the over two and a half quarterbacks just because it's kind of like Lamar Jackson thing. I've just seen teams, they trade back into the end of the first round to get that fifth year option. That's a big deal.

Instead of waiting and taking a quarterback in the second round, you only have them for four years. They like to come back in. It could be Detroit. That trades back into that first round and grabs that quarterback. So I am actually on the opposite side. I just like quarterback classes that people say the class sucks. Those are my favorite classes. Again, we talked about the Chubisky class.

Everyone hated that class. People kept saying there's no number one quarterback. These guys aren't that great. They'd be lucky if one of these guys becomes an all pro. Little did we know we had Mahomes in that class. So it is tough where it's just a lot of noise with the media, but I'm with them that I've just, I'm not crazy about this class because of all the little work.

these guys have. Like the Cincinnati quarterback, I've watched his film. He looked great, but then he played Bam and he looked like the quarterback for Cincinnati. I mean, Ridley is good, but it's, yeah, it's tough for me. So like the way I bet this so far, I bet the over of the quarterback stuff. I am nervous about like you just talked about the top 10 thing with you, Chad, just because I couldn't believe when you said it. I just, I just think teams, when it comes to a quarterback, so you always overpay for one, just because if you don't have a good quarterback, what do you really have? And that's, So I feel about this draft class.

It's like, yeah, it's not the best draft class, but at the same time, you have a lot of desperate teams that would be happy to take one of these guys and tie your career to a quarterback where it's like, well, just give me another year. We'll see how he does next year kind of deal. A lot of the things I say are unbelievable right up until they happen.

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Yep. me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill,

waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because, of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence.

Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I like your logic about why you would go over two and a half on quarterbacks more than I like

Freibin's logic of this guy got an invite to be at the draft. So we got a glean from that that he's going on day one versus, yeah, team sneak into picking a quarterback with the last pick because, you know, Like maybe they've got time to develop a quarterback and there's someone they like and it's worth a flyer. And when you're drafting at the bottom of the first round, you're not getting what you're expecting to be all pro talent anyways. And your team is usually pretty good. So you could see trying to get someone you think has a high ceiling. In the last couple of minutes here, Friedman, give me right now your best bets for the NFL draft.

Best bets. All right, I will say Evan Neal versus Ikem Akam-Aquanu. That is a great matchup in terms of who's going to be the top offensive linemen taken in the draft. If you look across the market, Aquano is favored. And I get it. He's the sexier player on film. You just see him panicking multiple dudes when he's outrun blocking. But Evan Neal is the more polished prospect.

He has more versatility. He's played right tackle, left tackle. He's played interior as a guard. I think he should be favored. He's favored in the sharp mock drafts. He's favored by a number of other factors that I look at. And across the market, you know, anywhere from plus 130 to plus 150s is a number that you can find. I am betting on Evanil to be the top offensive linemen taken in this class.

That's really interesting because there was a time where I remember Simon during the football season, We talked about one prospect, and it was Akem Aquano from NC State, co-offensive linemen of the week when the season began. Like Friedman said, had this sort of laundry list of amazing stats, rose up the draft board, and there were rumors about him potentially being number one overall, and the markets completely moved on him. Yeah, and honestly, all stem from apparently one guy writing an article. I think Evan was the one that actually figured it out. Because I couldn't figure it out. I was like, I've called multiple professional groups.

None of them bet it. Like I didn't know who was betting it. And it came out, we won't name the newspaper, but someone wrote about it. And they put it online. The guy moved it from 100 to 1 down to 10 to 1. Now, I mean, I've seen a couple different websites having him mocked being the first overall pick to Jacksonville now.

So, I mean, that's crazy. I think where was that? What was that three, four months ago, Chad? Now we're at. He's down from 10 to 1, which is what we gave out on the show, because we're like, hey, someone knows something, take a flyer on it. I love these kind of drafts.

It's not great for betting on because it's so much unknown. But I love it because it's fun. It's like this is what we want, right? It's like give me a really crazy mental draft because if one of these teams do trade up for one of these quarterbacks, it's going to kind of set off a domino for this whole draft where all we've really talked about is just going to be kind of boring. It's going to be a bunch of de-linmen, a bunch of the offensive linemen. I mean, this draft is really, really, really good.

but it's not sexy like people love. And I think that's kind of been the big difference here. It's like football heads, this is like a really great draft. But to just the fans of it, they're just like, who's the quarterback and what are the two receivers from Ohio State? And it's like kind of been one of those things

when people are talking or asking me about this year's draft. All right. Friedman's favorite bet is Evan Neal plus money to go before, Akem Oquanoo from NC State. Simon, before we wrap up here, what is your favorite draft bet or bets? I literally saw before we got on here, they had over two and a half D linemen taken in the top five. They've taken it down. So I don't know if something's happened since we've been on the show.

I actually really like that bet. I think there's good value in that bet for top five because, you know, it seems like it could be two offensive linemen. And then, again, there could be a cornerback sneaking in there. but all I keep hearing about is Walker, Hutchinson, and Kevion. So I don't know. I would say that was when I like coming in, but if people are looking for just now for me to bet, I like the over the quarterback to two and a half.

I think it's minus 110 or minus 105. I like the idea of a team trading back in and doing what they do with Lamar Jackson. Like you just draft the guy, get him for five years instead of the four years. And we talk all the time. That's how teams make Super Bowl runs nowadays. They get this rookie contract and they build around it. I know teams are going to do it. So to me, that's where I see value right now is taking the over two and a half quarterbacks first round.

All right. Friedman likes Neil to be drafted first over Aquano. Simon likes over two and a half quarterbacks in the first round. Friedman actually likes under two and a half quarterbacks in the first round. So we'll get a good look at that. For Matthew Friedman, director of content for betting, pros and fantasy pros for my BFF, my companion, my compadre, Simon Hunter, for our producer Extraordinaire, Matt Mitchell, I am Chad Millman. Hey, listen, don't forget, people, don't forget

Action Network is hosting a live happy hour in Vegas on April 27th for the draft in honor of the draft NFL draft happy hour at Circa's stadium swim in downtown Las Vegas, Wednesday, April 27th, open bar, surprise guest, betting tips from some of your favorite action pros. Got to be 21 or over. It's totally free, but requires an RSVP. So if you're in Vegas next week, check out the link in this episode description to RSVP. Until Thursday, I am Chad Millman. Rate, review, subscribe, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you do it. Feedback is a gift. Love you.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement home. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.