The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast - NFL Draft Expert Scott Smith

Episode Date: April 27, 2022

The NFL Draft goes live in Las Vegas on Thursday night, so to help project how the first round will play out we welcome on Scott Smith, an Action Network contributor and one of the most accurate NFL mock drafters in the last five years. Along with guest host Brendan Glasheen and pro gambler Simon Hunter, the trio previews the wild markets moves seen across the board thus far and gives out their favorite bets as the first round looms. #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites from the volume podcast network. I am Brendan Glashine of the Action Network, filling in for Chad Millman, who is out traveling today, but will return next episode. I'm joined by Chad's beloved co-host, the professional gambler, Simon Hunter. Simon, thanks for letting me slide in today. Here to talk about the NFL draft on today's episode. How are you today? Good, man.

Yeah, thanks for helping out. Of course, Chad, we don't work that many weeks doing NFL stuff. Chad misses the most important week with draft coverage. Hopefully he'll be back here next show. But I see why he pulled a runner. It's like, man, it's been a really tough year for mock drafters. Like, it's truly we're in the deep end here just because it's going to be really fun breaking all down. We usually know who's going to be a couple first picks at least.

You know, maybe the top five, maybe we know, you know, five or six guys are going to be top 10. We don't really know. A lot of us, we have good guests. We kind of think we know what teams are going to do. But I don't know, for my 10 years of doing mock drafts, this is one of the least confident drafts I've ever had. But for somehow, I still have a ton of bets in. So we'll definitely dive into all that. You always find a way, right?

All of our betting coverage, of course, we're looking forward to having it leading up to Thursday's first round. For the NFL draft, we have a very special guest action network contributor, NFL mock draft. Maven Scott Smith. Every year our friends at Fantasy Pros ranked the most accurate NFL mock drafters in 2018. Scott finished number one. Last year, he finished top three. And this guy is objectively one of the best NFL draft experts anywhere.

His latest mock is available now. So be sure to check it out at the Action Network, at Action Network.com or, of course, on the Action App. That's a long way of introducing Scott Smith. Scott, welcome. What's going on? Are you going, guys? Look, it's crunch time. I'm kind of getting into the nitty gritty,

prepared my last mock that's going to drop on Thursday at the Axon Network. I'll be submitting it Wednesday night. But look is lying season right now. So you've got to like sift through the smoke and see what's really fire and what's not. Yes, lie detector tests are out there. Scott, care to react to what Simon's leadoff thought was? Just it's a, I would guess from your perspective, one of the more challenging years to try and figure out who's going at the top of this draft.

Look, and that could be said for the last couple of years as well when you had COVID. kind of hitting and causing some problems. Every year it's pretty difficult to go ahead and predict. But this year, the issue that you're really falling into is somewhat with the betting odds that are shifting plus or minus 300 on a day-to-day basis. And you're seeing huge swings just within hours here and there. So some things to kind of work through, especially from betting odds in a betting standpoint as well.

So we will get to Scott's favorite bets. That's coming your way now. We'll start with a couple of team-centric bets. also get into positions like receiver, potentially some quarterback discussion, as well as maybe if we do see any first round quarterbacks in the 2022 NFL draft. So, Scott, you want to begin with the New York Giants.

They select number five overall in the first round. What's your angle here on the GMM? We're going ahead and preparing for the show. Charles Cross is a guy who's been getting a lot of smoke and a lot of connections there to the Giants. Peter Shregers had multiple. of his connections, Lincoln Charles Cross there. I was getting it at plus 500 and plus 450.

And here right before we start to show, you go ahead and check. And it's Charles Cross at number five to the Giants at plus 250. I still think that there's a little bit of value there, but that number is a number that's consistently kind of shrinking. So I think it's another thing where there's smoke. There's a little bit of fire there with the Giants. And I think there's also a long shot here with Charles Cross to the Giants that I think that could play out.

I think it is possible that you could see a situation. where this draft starts off and falls with Trayvon Walker and Nate Hutchinson going one, two. Look, Derek Stingley's another guy who is starting to get a lot of heat there. You know, Lance Erlon is connecting him there with Houston. And if, you know, you're sitting there with the Jets at four and they decide to go ahead and pass on an offensive lineman and go, say, Kvon Tibado or Amad Gardner, you know, I think there's a long shot at plus 700 you can find on some of the sports bets for Charles possibly the first offensive player taken off the draft off the board there to the Giants at five. Yeah, Adam Schaefter had a report earlier in the week about Daniel Jones and whether or not the

team will decide to pick up the fifth year option. And that, that of course, is notable because if indeed they want to rebuild the offensive line around Jones, it would make some sense. Regardless, I guess, who the quarterback is, you want to get that left tackle in place and sort of bring your, you know, bring your point to more light. The Giants, a draft special, on draft Kings to draft an offensive lineman Simon at minus 130. You think Scott's on to something here that they're going to go align with their fifth pick? Yeah, I don't hate that. I mean, this is such a big draft for this Giants team. Having two picks in the top seven and what we're talking about is pretty loaded draft. Again,

it's just a draft all through the first round. There's just a lot of really solid interior lineman, offensive linemen, deep, debacks. I mean, there's a lot of ways they could go here. I love that play. I love for them to get a tackle where it's just like, yeah, they're apparently they're going to roll it out again with Daniel Jones. Me personally, I'd either roll a dice on a quarterback or you're hoping Daniel Jones is so bad this year. You get one of these studs next year, one of these quarterbacks. So for me, then I'm going to offensive alignment. That seems like a smart play. I love that play, though. First offensive player drafted, that's a really heavy play because from what I've read, all these top teams are looking at defense in those first four

picks. So I do like that. It's very interesting play. And just to clarify, the report from Schefter was a week from the 26th, the next week, the Giants. And that I, of course will impact. We'll find out who they end up drafting, but they will decide on whether or not they pick up the $22.38 million fifth year option. If they decline the option, Jones would play this season on an expiring contract. So we'll see what the Giants do at five and at seven. Currently, that's where they are selecting. Scott, moving down the board, you've got your eyes on the Tennessee Titans. They're picking at 26th overall on Thursday night. What is your angle on the Titans? Yeah, look, the Titans are kind of all over the place with some of their needs.

I've actually been leaning a little bit more towards a quarterback being a selection for them. I think you start looking at Ryan Tanny Hills getting a little bit up there in age. He's 34. You look at the fact that they had success last season and managed to get that number one overall seed there in the AFC. But when it came to the playoffs, he just fell flat. And I think, you know, even if we start looking at the quarterbacks and the situation there, currently I'm kind of leaning towards Kenny Pickett and you can get some long shot odds there at plus 1,500 on draft kings. But just drafting a Titans and connecting a quarterback there to the Titans, you can get plus 600 odds.

And you talk about some of the quarterback numbers. Right now, the over and under is sitting at about two and a half. Desmond Ritter is another guy who's been getting, you know, a lot of heat there talking about him possibly being a first round selection and being that third quarterback that pushes that over. And I think, you know, sitting there looking at Tennessee, I think Tennessee could be a surprising team that could possibly drop the quarterback. Yeah, I mean, that's a bold one, sir. I mean, to team that was the number one seat in the AFC, but Ryan Tannehill tends to show his glaring flaws in big games

and see that playoff game against the bangle. Simon, any thought on the potential of Tennessee taking a quarterback, which, by the way, as Scott mentioned, First round quarterbacks drafted. The over at two and a half is juiced all the way to minus 250. Yeah, I've actually, we gave that out. I think it was at minus 175 last week or minus 200. We loved that.

And this was on my big board. One of the teams I had taken a quarterback. I have Tennessee. I have Atlanta trading back in or I have Detroit trading back into the first round to grab a quarterback. So to me, Ritter and Matt, Correll, those are kind of guys kind of guys. We're at end of the first round. You know, we all see these guys deficiencies. Plenty of teams have talked about it.

But that we, again, you just talked to. about here with Daniel Jones. That fifth year option is such a big deal. Daniel Jones stinks. They're not going to pick up that option most likely. But if they're a stud, you get that fifth year option, you're saving $15, $20 million in that fifth year. So to me, it makes sense why these teams are going to back into this first round, take a quarterback in. Tennessee, I like that move just because they have Tannenhill there, wherever they draft late in this first round, no problem sitting them for a year or two. So I actually like that play for Tennessee. Scott, staying on the subject of quarterbacks. Do you want to give us some more details on your predictions as to how many

and what quarterbacks? You already hit on a bit with the Titans, but predictions for first round quarterbacks. Yeah, I think when you're looking at it, anytime I'm setting up a mock draft after looking at a draft board, I think you really have to set your board based around quarterbacks. Normally, that would make the top 10 round out a little bit differently and be a little bit more secure who's going to be those top 10 players. I think with this draft and they're just not being a blue chip quarterback prospect that everybody sold on. I think you can start looking at some of these quarterbacks falling. Daniel Jeremiah did report yesterday that one of his big predictions for this draft is that sitting

there at 20, he thinks that all the quarterbacks are going to be there available for Pittsburgh. I actually have Malik Willis, who's probably going to be in my final mock draft there, mock to Pittsburgh. I think that's a team that has shown their hand prior to the draft starting in these last couple of years. And I think it's a good match. They've been linked to him since the senior bowl. I think you look at Trubisky. I don't think he's on solid footing.

I think he's just going to be a bridge quarterback. And you hear about Malik Willis having the most upside of the quarterbacks. I think that would be a good fit for him to be able to go ahead and be drafted by Pittsburgh and maybe sit a year or two. Yeah, like what Scott just said there about the quarterback thing, where it is like, I coming into it, I really did not see a quarterback one of the top 10. And now I'm getting a little nervous. It was just like, Carolina made sense to me to draft. quarterback maybe the Seahawks. Is that why the Saints have two first round picks now because they want to trade up to get one of

these quarterbacks in their first round? And the more I read, the more mocks I look at, it's like what he's just talking about. Scott just said it. These guys are mocking these quarterbacks to Pittsburgh at the 20th pick or whatever. So to me, that would hurt if these quarterbacks drop late because I have a lot invested in these quarterbacks. So it will be interesting to see if these teams actually do it. Like that's got to be a scary thing like the Patriots did last year.

You just sit there and you wait for Mack Jones to drop to a 15. You're betting on him dropping. So we'll see if these teams have the Cajonis to wait and just sit there and let these quarterbacks drop. Yeah. And if anything, if you're in those, if you're drafting in that top 19, just lay your groundwork for next year and get a quarterback in a better class. That might be the mindset as well, right? So it makes some sense as to why some teams, maybe like a Seattle, Pete Carroll can be stubborn and say, well, I can rebuild this thing on the fly and I can worry about the quarterback later because I can win without a quarterback, despite how loaded his division is. we think. Moving to the, we'll stay on the offensive side of the ball and go to wide receiver.

You have thoughts on just receivers in general going in the first round, but more specifically, Scott, first wide receiver coming off the board. What do you like? Yeah, this is something that's kind of changed here, but I think when we start looking at those top 10 teams, and I land specifically on Atlanta there at 8 is being the primary spot for the first wide receiver come off the board. Garrett Wilson was the early favorite. And when you look at the odds, he's still the favorite there. at 110. The person that I'm actually linking there is going to be Drake London, who you can get a little bit better odds. I think he's sitting around plus 250 right now. I just think with that coaching staff, Arthur Smith in particular, he likes bigger wide receivers. That position group is probably

the worst position group there for Atlanta in the entire NFL. You start looking at what their other options might be, and I would kind of lean towards edge. They were pretty horrible at putting pressure on the passer as well. But I just don't think that that position group there at wide receiver is one where they can sit there and go into the second round without being able to take one of these premium wide receivers. And right now, I have Drake London as to being that guy that I think is a good bet to go off the board as the first wide receiver selected.

And he's got the third shortest odds on draft kings for first receiver selected, like you said, plus 250. Simon, a lot of hype around Jameson Williams. Is there any fear that Williams might be the guy who could cut Scott's pick off? I love them. I really do. I've watched a lot of tape on this kid.

And as an Eagles fan, I'm dying for this going to drop to us because we'll have him. We'll have, again, the Heisman winner from Alabama from last year. And as much as I like Hertz, if he's terrible this year, next year we get Bryce Young. To me, that would just be hilarious. We just had literally the Alabama offense running the Eagles team. So I love Williams upside, but I would honestly take, I'd take London ahead of them. London's bigger, he's stronger, and he hasn't torn his knee up. So to me, I like the bet.

I think that teams are really like, you know, they just want to play it safe. Again, we haven't talked about number one pick yet, but I feel like at this time of year, a lot of these teams, most of them want to play it's safe because they just want to keep their job. So Drake London first pick for wide receiver, that actually sounds pretty good to me. So as we discussed before we went live on the pod today, a lot of stuff just keeps moving. There's a lot of movement for this draft this year because of the uncertainty to Simon's point, who might go number one. But the number to me that's interesting is first round wide receivers, and we're staying on the topic

of receiver Scott. You could get it around five and a half and a lot of folks were thinking, okay, take the over on that. But now it's moved a full receiver up to six and a half. And you can get the over or the under is juiced at minus 120 over at minus 110. So now with that extra receiver added to that number to that to that propped, is that change you're thinking at all? And I should I should ask you, what was your initial thought process on when you saw a number at five and a half and then how it moved to six and a half for receivers in the first round? Yeah, one of the things I've been talking about is I think the financial landscape of the NFL is really changing. And I've said that here the past couple of weeks.

You start looking at Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill. And even on the flip side of that, like some of the contracts that like Denzel Ward has gotten as a cornerback. So I think when you start looking at how juiced some of these contracts are, you're going to see more and more wide receivers and cornerbacks sliding in to the end of these first rounds. initially I was pounding the over at five and a half. I think the market has corrected itself here at six and a half. And here at six and a half with minus 120 and minus 110 on over and under, it's a bet that I'm kind of staying away from.

I think when you start looking at it, I think six is kind of the number that I'm a little bit more comfortable with. I think one of the players that you might want to look at that could be sliding into that top 32 would be George Pickens. I think he's a guy, he's got some off to field and a little bit of character concerns, but he's a good fit, I think, there to Green Bay at 28. But I think when you start looking at some other things and you start looking at teams like Green Bay, Kansas City sitting there with two picks. I could see a situation where you do have that wide receiver sliding in, but I can also see a situation with a team like Kansas City that likes to move up and trade around, moving up to grab the specific wide receiver they want earlier in the round and maybe forcing some other teams maybe to miss out on wide receiver.

So it's really going to be dependent on how some of these teams have grades at. But the over and under sitting at six and a half is kind of a bet that I'm staying away at, way from. If you were able to get it at five and a half, I hope you pounded it early on in draft season. But I think the market's very much corrected itself here. Yeah, Simon, the end of the first round is where this could get really, really sticky, really tricky. Christian Kirk goes to Jacksonville.

So maybe Arizona has a need. Amari Cooper to Cleveland, Dallas might figure, hey, why not add to our bunch here for Jack Prescott. Scott hit on Green Bay. I don't think you'll see anything from Tampa. I don't think Tennessee could always use another guy. And then you've got Detroit at 32. What's your read on this receiver prop as far as number of receivers taken in the first round moving from five and a half to six and a half any interest? Stay away. Yeah, this, this, uh, I've been burned by this. I think when I've been just two years ago, T. Higgs, guy I loved was the first pick in the second round. I swore he was going to be traded. They were going to trade into the first round and grab him.

because I thought his upside was that great. They didn't, and that burned me. I think the over-under in that year was six and a half, same thing. It hit at six. So to me, it sounds like Scott just said it. You kind of missed the best of the number. Stay away. There's plenty of opportunity in this draft.

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or wherever you get your podcasts. So moving along to other first round best bets from Scott, Simon, I want to get back to you here, though. What is your current read on who the number one overall pick might be? My current read. I mean, I'm happy books have limited this year. Luckily, the books got burned so bad last year. They've really been limited how much you can get down on these picks early in this

season. So I would say the last week, they've kind of picked it up. And we've seen the movement where it might have been Peter King and a couple other guys had. Walker is the number one pick. When I made, again, I don't watch college football like these other pros, but when I listened to all these pros and read these guys mocks before the combine, all so their stuff, Walker was the end of a first round kind of draft pick. And I've seen the play, these guys keep talking about this play in this Georgia game

where everyone kind of stopped playing this play, like they stopped playing hard. And he was running the guy down all the way down the field, this big D-Lyman chasing the guy down, 50 yards down the field. I love Walker's upside. I don't get what's happening. Aiden, to me, is just such a safe pick at that number one pick. for the Jags. It made sense for me that they'd either grab a D-N or they would just play it safe with Doug Pearson, taking offensive lineman. And the offseason, they signed offensive lineman.

It made sense they'd get a guy like Aiden and I'm lost because I've invested in Aiden. And now Walker, someone knows something. Like, again, the group I work for, we pay a lot of money for a mole for a lot of these teams. And the guy we have with the Jags, he's been saying the same tune. Their owner wants Aiden. That's the owner is what he said. months now that he wants Aiden. It's the GM, the coach and a bunch of other people there are like, well, what about Walker? What about an offensive alignment? So, you know, you keep seeing these headlines. They have four guys right now they could take at the number one pick. That's so, that's crazy me to even think about. Like we literally were three days out

and they are, they don't know who they're going to take. So I'm going to trust my mole, trust my source that it's Aiden. I'm not going to keep betting thousands of dollars on it because I already have been invested in it. But every time the odds drop, like he's back to plus two 50 now, Aiden, I got to throw another grain on it. So it's, it's going to burn me. But this first pick, man, it's going to be the most, the most drama for me, at least, for this draft, just because it is so up in the air. And I know a lot of pros, they've heavily invested in this Walker kid. So the reason why I bring that up, because I figured you wouldn't mention sauce Gardner. And there's, you could make the case that he is the best talent available in the top 10,

top five, possibly. And now I, a lot of, you look at odds now, Scott. He Gardner is the favorite to be the first cornerback taken, but it brings up a more bigger picture point. You have a thought on first round corners. The numbers set at four and a half. It's a position, I think, as we talk about receiver, teams, you've got to defend the receivers as well in the National Football League with given how offenses have expanded.

And offense is becoming such a focus, a passing game offense. So what's your gauge on four and a half corners and over or under, Scott, in the first round? Well, just to hop back on that first pick real quick and talking about how the numbers have changed, if you want to go ahead and still put some money on Aidan Hutchinson to be the first overall pick, a lot of these sports books are actually allowing you to start to parlay some of these first couple of picks. And right now Aiden Hutchinson to go one and Trayvon Walker to go two, if you put both of those together as the first two picks, you can get plus 500 on that to go ahead and maybe head some of the other bets that you bet maybe last week,

whenever you got positive numbers on Trayvon Walker to go ahead and be the first overall pick to Jacksonville. So there's still some ways to play that. But to go ahead and jump on the cornerback, I think when you start looking at it, and we talked a little bit more about how the landscapes kind of change with some of these contracts. Right now, that number is at over four and a half. And I think when you start playing some of these numbers like this and start thinking of it more in a poker standpoint, I think you want out very similar to a way you would play a hand of poker. And I think with that cornerback number, you have some out.

out in a form of some of these guys like, you know, you start looking, you've got Kaira Il and you've got, you know, Kyler Gordon, you've got Andrew Booth. Like those three guys right there could all add on to the top three cornerbacks that are selected. So I think you give yourself outs with that over four and a half number. I think the total number is going to end up being five. But sitting there at what it's at plus 120 right now, that's a bet that I like. I think there's good value there to be had.

I think you leave yourself with a lot of outs and possibly go ahead and hit that bet. Yeah, it's not the first time I've heard that one. Definitely, I share some similar interest just in the point I made to set you up on that with just the need of that position. You can never have too much help at that position when you see how loaded the top of the league is at receiver. Simon carried away in on corners, the numbers at four and a half. And if you take the under, it's at minus 150. Right there with Scott, it's just become a position of it gets paid a lot of money now.

So teams like a trade back in and grab it. So to me, that's a great number where we may have three cornerbacks taking the top 15. Now we're just sitting on two for the next 17 picks. That's a good feeling to have. So I like that number a lot. Excellent. Scott, any other first round bets that you want to get into before we wrap here? Yeah, you know, I think when we start looking at some of these,

and this isn't a number that's going to give you huge odds, but I think it's a very safe bet. And I think when you start looking at the over and under on safeties, you definitely have Kyle Hamilton, but that number right there is at one and a half. So, Louisine, Daxton Hill out of Michigan, you know, at minus 285, you're not going to like make a huge profit here. But I think you, you're safe to go ahead and, look, go ahead and settle with a 20%, you know, bump on your, on your bank roll and stuff like that. I think you have those two outs. Daxton Hill is very highly regarded. He's got an expected draft position bouncing around somewhere around pick 25.

Lewis Seen's another guy that the scouts seem to love. I think he's a great fit for Detroit there at pick 32. I think Tampa Bay is another outfit you could possibly see. Also, Cincinnati, I think there's plenty of options at the back end right there for another one of these safeties to go. And that safety bet at over one and a half just seems like easy money for me. Like I said, you're not going to make a huge profit. But I think it's safe to go ahead and take the guaranteed money,

which is what I would consider that bet. another couple of bets that I like. I think we kind of hit on on some of those, those cornerbacks, Kyle Gordon's plus 110 to be drafted in the top 32. His expected draft position is right there around pick 33. Kaira Elam out of Florida is at plus 125. And Lewasine, who I just hit on at safety,

is an even money bet at plus 100. So I think those are some good bets that I would go ahead and sprinkle a little bit of cash on to go in the top 32. Another long shot that I really like to go ahead and look here. We talked about Derek Stingley a little bit, getting connected to Houston there a lot. You can go ahead and do an exact top three of Trayvon Walker, Aidan Hutchinson, and Derek Stingley at plus 550.

If you don't like Stingley to be that pick there, the first cornerback off the board to Houston, you can go ahead and swap it out with Amar Gardner for plus 600. I think both of those bets right there offer some good value if you want to go ahead and swim that way. What do you think, Simon? You were nodding your head at that one. Yeah, I like that one.

I like, again, Kyle Hamilton. He's a coworker of ours, okay? He's from the volume, no disrespect, but I like his out of the top 10 value right now. I could see him go and pick 11, pick 12. Nothing against him. It's one of those where I feel like these guys are trying to get a little smarter.

They're starting to really trust their nerds, which the nerds are going to tell them, safety is an important position for sure. It's just not as important as a de-linman is, an offense alignment, there's a wire receivers, all these other key positions, a quarterback. So I mean, again, the kid talent is insane. He is going to be a stud in the league. He's kind of one of those things where, yeah, people are going to be like, well, did you see

his 40 time? Kyle is football fast. Like, if you watch his game tape, you never really thought to yourself, this kid's not that quick. But I'm actually interested here what Scott's view is of this year's draft. Do you think because of next year's draft with the quarterbacks, we do see these quarterbacks fall in a little bit because we've already seen projections for next year. They're literally projecting three quarterbacks go one, two, and three. Do you see the,

do you actually really believe that hype about these quarterbacks dropping at pick 20? Is that something real? Because, again, I have sources there like that. It feels like this year more than any, I'm not going to know a lot until the morning of the draft. Like that's when we see all the crazy line movement. Like last year we saw the Trey Lance Line movement. It feels the same way this year. Like all of a sudden, I'm going to wake up and see the quarterbacks drop into pick 20 or something crazy like that. Are you hearing stuff like that too, Scott? Yeah, that's what I'm hearing. and a good friend, former Action Network, you know, member Matthew Friedman. He actually went back and did a study and basically looked over the last 10 to 15 years.

And when a quarterback wasn't selected in the top five, that generally gave you a signal that the GMs and a scouts are very down on the quarterback class. And that's when those quarterbacks started to slide. And I think you actually have the number of two and a half. But like when you start looking at it with those numbers when quarterbacks weren't drafted in the top five, generally only like two quarterbacks went in the first round. I just don't think all of these quarterbacks that are in this draft as prospects, they have their warts. You know, they all have their different issues, especially with Malik Willis who may have the top upside. But you look at what he ran there in Liberty and the level of competition that he played at.

I think it's going to take a year or two for him to go ahead. It's not to say that any of these guys can't come out and produce and prove us wrong. But from the prospect evaluation standpoint, there's just not a clean one there for this. this draft loss. Yeah. And I mean, a puny on that, it's like things are always involved in NFL. Like, I'll never forget the year the Eagles went and traded up to get Wentz, golf was the number pick, how he said something I'll never forget, which is how you just know these guys are so full of shit. He said, we traded up to get Wentz because the upcoming draft classes of quarterbacks are no good. The following year was Mahomes and Watson. So it's one of those where

these GMs are going to say a lot of BS and just talk whatever reason, but it is, it is going to be interesting where it's just so much smoke this year. Again, Peter King put out a mock draft Monday morning. And I do believe that's why Walker's odds shifted so highly because he literally, you can put, you can check the draft king's timing of it. He put his article, I believe his guy put it out at like midnight or 11 p.m. That's when you started the odds for Walker for number one pick really go from, I believe it's plus 250 to minus 150 between 12 p.m. East Coast time and 4 a.m. East Coast time. So it is really, really crazy all the drama rumors we're going to hear. And when you wake up Thursday morning, check the odds. If you've been betting these draft odds,

because that movement you see draft morning, that's as real as it's going to get. Like, that's when the pros really strike and the information is really good. So again, make these bets, but make sure like Scott talked about, you're kind of hedging and taking care of your position because you don't want to be caught in these kind of things. The draft is meant to be fun and be able to make some good money off, taking advantage of some spots. Don't go all in on the first pick, but don't go all in on us saying bet the over of the cornerbacks. You kind of want to spread these things out just because, again, the draft is a long first day. And just a warning, just to some of the listeners right now, the last few years,

a lot of these sports books have been getting burned, especially with a lot of these prop shows popping up and a lot of people getting sharper and some of these sharp betters betting big early in the morning. So be on a lookout because some of these sports books are going to start locking these bets out and taking a lot of these bets off their sights. So I wouldn't expect to be able to wait an hour or two before the draft hits and be able to go pound some of these numbers. I think some of these sports books are just going to flat out shut down the numbers and that's not allowed by that being that close. Vegas does not take action on the draft day.

So in New Jersey, you can get you can get action down New York, all these other states. But like Scott said, if you if you're making bets afternoon on draft day, your options are going to be very slim that are going to start taking these numbers down. And if you're in Vegas, make sure you get all your bets in Wednesday night beforehand. They're taking all lines down on Thursday. I was literally going to ask both of you, your biggest piece of advice when you bet the draft. And you both basically gave warnings and cautioned folks and you reminded people if you do want to do it. You cannot wait too long. And I guess the positive this year compared to last year, you're not going to get some blockbuster for a Tray Lance, right?

You're going to have an idea. But what the downfall will be, as Simon said, you're going to get some understanding based on reporting what team and what player might fit in terms of interest and what they plan on doing with X pick in terms of the pick number odds that are up at a variety of books. I'm hoping for a shock to world lines take Malika pick two because that would honestly throw a wrench in everything. That would be epic. But that's just being open for chaos.

That is going to do it for us, everybody. Scott Smith does a great job covering the NFL draft action network contributor NFL mock draft. Maven Scott. Thanks a lot for the time, man. Great stuff. I appreciate it. Thank you.

All right. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network. Thanks so much for listening, everybody. Be sure to join Chad and Simon for their final NFL draft betting episode, which is out early, early Thursday morning. And Simon urged you. Be sure to listen because stuff will be taken down and you won't be able to get action. So be sure to set your alarm, get up and tune in. So until next time for Scott Smith, Simon Hunter, your host today, Brendan Glass Sheen filling in for Chad. All said and done. Chad loves you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends.

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