The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Best Bets

Episode Date: February 6, 2025

It's all led up to this. The final episode of the NFL season has arrived, as Action Network NFL experts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter discuss their top picks for Super Bowl LIX along with their colleagues Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams. Brandon provides the plays he'll be betting on Sunday, including a handful of plus-money spots he'll be targeting. Later on, Evan Abrams takes us home with his favorite bets based on his extensive research, including a Halftime/Full-time wager with plenty of value. And to all the listeners who have joined us this season, thanks to each and every one of you for making The Favorites Podcast the most popular sports betting podcast in the land! Best of luck on all your wagers, and we'll catch you right back here for our Super Bowl LIX Recap episode next week! #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. How we doing?

Getting closer, brother. And as we speak, as we record, lines are moving. And not in the direction we thought they would last week. As we speak, lines are moving in the direction of the Eagles. Last week, lines went from one and a half to two. This week, lines are moving from one and a half to one. You're seeing it a bunch of Jersey books. It also happened at a big Vegas book.

Very interesting that lines are moving in the direction right now of the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad. If I can get the chiefs at a cheaper price on the money line or on the number, fantastic. Today is our Super Bowl Best Betts episode with our favorite director of research. Evan Abrams is going to join us at the end of the show, as he always does.

We'll also bring in Hot Reads Specialist and Evan's partner on the Action Network podcast, Sunday version, Brandon Anderson. We will of course discuss our Foxhole, our Tommy John Big Balls, Simon's biggest bets. We're going to play some scoch roulette, all that jazz. Betts are rolling in. As I said, lines are moving.

Decisions need to be made as our volume podcast boss, Colin Cowher, likes to say. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5. to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more.

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Okay, it's Thursday. last Thursday of the season in which we get to hear how the wise guys are responding to our conversations lines move based on what we say the pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions

Simon, let's do Sharp calls Hello, who's there, I'm talking ring, ring, telephone ring somebody said, baby what you're doing? Yeah, Sharp calls is only one game It's pretty insane how much.

It's just so much opinion, so many, everyone's got the answers, right? Especially when you're talking professional betters. They all already know the answers on the test. But this week, honestly, it started out. It was basically everyone I knew was taking a position on the chiefs in the under. And a couple of the smarter betters took the egos up plus two. And, you know, we talked on Tuesday show, I think even Sunday night, like, okay, I get why they would take that early number. But I expected most professionals be on the chief side.

it's actually gone another way. I'm seeing more that the public is on the chief side and more professionals are lined up taking the eagle side. I think it is what we talked about, right? It's most guys that do models are going to have the Eagles as the better team across the board. So it's not that shocking. I mean, our view of it is we agree.

We think the Eagles are the better team across the board, but the two most important positions, the coach and the quarterback, the chiefs do have an advantage there. So, yeah, it's been pretty wild. Like a lot of the pros I know, Chad, they've been, you know, taking this eagle side, but it's not like they're hammering it heavy, right?

It's not like that where they're really taking a standard because I think most people view it as there's not a ton of value in the number itself, right? If you like the Eagles, a lot of guys weren't taking the plus one. They were just taking the plus 110. Now you've seen that that number is gone, right? Most books now are down to plus 105, even flipping. A couple of books now are at minus 104 for the Eagles. So yeah, it's interesting to see that number move.

And obviously that's professional money moving that number. That's not Joe Public moving it. And same goes for that under. Like I wanted to give out the under here on the show today. Still going to do it. We've seen that 49 and a half just disappear. Like I've been looking all across every book. It's gone totally.

The highest you can get now is 49, which is still good value. But when we talked last week, I thought it would go the other way. I was like, hopefully it gets to 50 by the time we do our next show. That's not the case, right? Most people that had respected money came in and took the under. So as you said here right now, it seems like respected money, Eagles and the under I think me and you know the deal right this respected money the same money that though two weeks ago came in heavy on the bills the bills literally went from a minus or plus

two dog to a pick-em by kickoff against the chiefs that number steamed before kickoff and that's respected professional money looks like they're trying to fade my homes once again Chad so pretty interesting they're they're taking that stand where I think me of the same opinion it's like it's easy money it's easy living taking my homes and not stressing about it So I am shocked to see that so much respect to money is coming on this eagle side. It just makes no sense to me. It's just astonishing that someone in this day and age, giving everything we know about Patrick Mahomes and how he performs,

everything we know about Andy Reid and how he performs, everything we know about Steve Spagnolo and how he performs, we have a very decent sized sample set of data that indicates how these guys perform in high-pressure situations when the stakes are the highest, whether it's end of the regular season to clinch a playoff seed, clinch a first round by, to clinch the number one seed in the AFC, to clinch home field advantage, to clinch a trip to the Super Bowl, to win the Super Bowl. Like, Mahomes doesn't lose. He just doesn't lose. Let me, before I bring in Brandon Anderson, let me just read a couple more stats that,

we talked about last week, but they are worth repeating, if only because this line is moving in his direction. January, February, Mahomes have played 18 games at home or under Neutral Field. 16 and 2, straight up. His losses, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. We are right now being asked to bet Patrick Mahomes essentially straight up to win this game. If you throw in November and December, he's 44 and 6 straight up. In just the playoffs, he's been an underdog or a favorite, under a field goal eight times, eight and no, straight up and against the spread. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter of O.T., fourth quarter or overtime in nine total playoff games. He's won six of those games, forced O.T. in two of those games.

Aston. Brandon Anderson, talk to me. No one, joke, but no one is offering you action like this. It's the gambling experience of a lifetime. And it's my way of saying, I understand men like you. I know what you want. I know what you need. This is where you belong. Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to get away from it just coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hertz.

Who do you like to win the game? And who do you like to win the game? If it's close late, either Pat has the ball and I like the Chiefs or Jalen has the ball. And I like the Chiefs. And that's the problem is if it's close late, I'm going to like the Chiefs either way. Jalen Hertz away from home has not been good in the playoffs. Andy Reed on arrest, 29 and 3 straight up with 13 plus days of rest with either Patrick Holmes or Donovan McNabb.

All the trends line up this way. Like it's going to be billed as Mahomes versus Hertz, of course, because it's the quarterbacks. And it is Mahomes versus Hertz. But we already know what Mahomes is going to do. To me, it's not Mahomes versus Hertz. It's Spags versus Hertz. And that's why I'm on the Chiefs as well, because I just haven't trusted, Jalen Hertz down the stretch for this team.

I haven't really felt like I trusted him even in this playoff run. And I do trust, with an extra week to prep, especially, that Spags are going to find some answers. He's going to dial up some blitzes. Jalen Hertz loves to roll right. That's going to be something that I think Spags will be ready for. I think he's going to mix up the coverages. Casey plays a lot of man.

Hertz is great against man, but not good against Zone. I think we're going to see a lot of kind of mixed hidden coverages. And I just trust, even as good as Philly's Diaz has been, as good as Banji. has been. I trust any one-off setting what we've seen time and time. Like, this is the Mahomes read thing that we've seen, but it's Spags too, and it has been this whole way. I know that's something you guys keep talking about as well. And I just think he's kind of the MVP for this game to me because I don't trust Jalen Hertz against Spags up against Patrick Mahomes.

Well, Simon, I got two big questions for you. One, would you like to respond to Brandon's Jalen Hertz insults, not trusting Jalen Hertz. I know it's a very sensitive topic. I don't even like to, I don't like to criticize Jalen Hertz anymore because I know it makes everyone in Philadelphia very upset. Well, you just, you would talk nonsense, Chad. At least Brandon here's coming with something to latch on to some sense of reason.

But I view it as it's a bend don't break from Spags. Like the last time they played in the Super Bowl, Hertz threw for three yards had four touchdowns. So yes, does Spaggs run a great defense? course, but he didn't break. That was the key to that game. Like they eventually in the second half made the right adjustments and they won the game because of a punt. Like they held against Hertz, Seriati punted. That was the game. Like that was all the chiefs needed to get in front in that last game the time they played. And that's the type of scenario we have here where it's like, you know,

Spags, he won't mind giving up the yards. It's all about in the red zone. If he can stop the Eagles in their red zone, bottle them down. They can win this game. That's how they will win this because we already know the deal, Chad. Like the more I break down and look into this game, the Eagles are so much better than the chiefs across the board in every position, basically. It's like incredible how well built this team is that how he's done this year. Like he basically nailed every little pick, every, you know, bringing in linebackers that ended up being all pros. Like that just doesn't happen in football. So when you really break it down, like we said, I get where the pros are coming from, betting on this Eagles team. But me and you have gone through this, Chad. We've lived in the moment where

the chiefs are never the better team, but they are the best at playing chess and football. Like them playing you and the clock and then the fourth quarter, that's where Andy Reid and Mahomes shine. So like we always talk about, if it's if those three points, if we were getting plus three, me, you would have been happy to take the Eagles. But with Mahomes and Andy Reid under that key number of three, if Mahomes is under that number or he's a dog, you don't overthink it. You don't over analyze it. You just take the number.

That's great value. So it's the same thing here. It's like, you know, the more I break it down, I'm so glad we did that Tuesday show last week because at this point, that would be hard for me not to be on the Eagles, but I keep reminding myself. That's the sucker move. Like, you're having too much time. You're overthinking it. We get it.

The Eagles are the better team. They don't have Mahomes. And that's always the difference. I joke with you. Come to the playoffs and say, if you want to win a Super Bowl, you either need a ton of luck or Patrick Mahomes. The chiefs have both. They have a ton of luck and they have Patrick Mahomes. So it's just my model can't quantify it.

It's just one of those things. It's the human intuition, some of that watches football and someone that just knows how this sport is and it's the Tom Brady effect. It's like these guys, your model can't compute it. It's just the human element of it.

So yeah, that's around that with Mahomes. It's like, I've been looking for reason to take this ego team and I keep coming back to, who do you trust in the fourth quarter? It's going to be Mahomes and Andy Reid. So, yeah, don't overthink of people. Well, that's what's so interesting to me

is that the Mahomes effect is why this line opened where it did. Because if you go back, Brandon, like last year at this time, we're talking about the Niners and the Chiefs. And the Chiefs are two-point underdogs. And everybody has the Niners power rated as the better roster by about two points. This year, everyone has the Eagles power rated

as the better roster, and the Chiefs open at one and a half and two. And now it's finally moving in that direction. some people are, the bookmakers at least, are trying to quantify that Mahomes effect, even if someone else has taken the bait. Yeah, I mean, I think I noted, you know, we came on the podcast right after the NFC championship and AFC championship. And it's even before we got chiefs or bills playing out, we're going to have the same

matchup, far superior roster or far superior quarterback. That was going to be the decision in the Super Bowl, even if it had been the bills, It was going to be the same sort of setup was, okay, do you want Josh Allen or do you want everything else on the Eagles? And, you know, in this case, you get Josh Allen, plus you get the other things, plus you get Andy Reid, and you get Spags and everything else.

And yeah, it's hard to quantify, especially when the line is right around zero. And it's like, okay, those half points and points aren't quite as valuable right around there compared you if it was getting to near three or getting to where it's key number spots. and it's more valuable now for money line play. So maybe that's probably the pivot instead

to get some value out of the movement and especially as someone that will be betting the chiefs waiting for some of this money to push toward Philadelphia and get a little bit better price, an extra five, 10 cents on the chiefs. Thank you. I appreciate it. I appreciate any line movement in this direction. But yeah, to me,

I think one thing that we need to factor in, despite the Eagles roster strength is very clear. the line, the weapons, the defensive talent. I think one key for me, Philadelphia has had such a soft strength of schedule this season. And you can only beat the teams that are in front of you. But do you guys know they've only played all season, including the playoffs still,

four games against a top 12 DVOA offense, or DVOA defense this entire season. And so we don't really trust what will the offense do for the Eagles. In particular, they've, I think, only trailed something like four minutes in the fourth quarter in the last 13 games. Well, that's great. That means that you're a really good team in winning a lot. But you might trail against the Chiefs.

And now what's going to happen? What's going to happen, Jalen Hertz, when you actually have to go do the thing and go win the game in the big moment? Now, look, he did the thing two years ago, and we kind of get to the spot where Eagles two years ago, 49ers last year, and now Eagles this time. I was like, okay, you hear a lot of people

that are just take the Chiefs, just take my homes. And if you're on the other side, and I have to admit, I've been on the other side, both the last two Super Bowls, you find yourself getting creative. You don't want to just take the Eagles.

You're like, well, Eagles, but first half. Or we were talking before he came on, what if I could bet Eagles' first 58 minutes? Like, we're all terrified of Mahomes, and I think it should be telling to us as betters that one side feels confident just taking the team and the point, and the number, whatever it is.

And the other side was like, well, like I did last time, Philadelphia, half time and full time. And I was like, okay, my numbers say I like the Eagles, even though I want to bet on Pat. And if I do like the Eagles, I'm probably going to like them if they're leading at the half because they've been such a good second half team like they have been this year. And so I kind of talked myself about the way there, they were up 10 at the half. They still don't win anyways because Mahomes, because they found away late. So I think it's telling that you see a lot of smart batters,

betting on the Eagles, but betting creatively to still get away from the money line and the points because we're so afraid of what the Chiefs and Mahomes have done late. There is just something unquantifiable about 11 and 0 and 1 score games, about making those plays and about having, frankly, maybe the best to ever do it down the stretch being able to come up with something. Well, Simon, you're a professional better. who seems to be going against your brethren in quantifying it, or not exactly quantifying it,

but taking it into account when you're making your bet, whereas the money is moving from professional betters in the direction to the Eagles, who while have the Eagles power rated higher, why are professional betters being so stubborn and not recognizing the brilliance and clutchness of Patrick Mahomes? They're also playing the odds too. I don't want to make it sound like these guys are idiots.

Like they're just playing the mathematical number. Like you just read those stats, Chad. It's not going to keep going that way forever, right? We know that things, especially in our line of work, they always break the other way. My view of is, okay, but what if he's the exception? Like that's my whole issue with it, where they keep bringing up the historical data

and everything like that, it's like, do we have any historical data to back up my homes here? Like nothing he does makes any sense. We've already talked about this, a nizzing, but like, you know, he's, is someone that just raises to the level and and things always just break his way we we we talked about with you in life chat if I had a superpower my superpower would be luck I my whole life always been lucky I'm one of those people and I think my home is the exact same way like to me

they were going to lose that bills game he needed his defense to step up and make a stop that wasn't the moms were used to right it's usually him controlling his own destiny not there like they that the bills if they would have a couple first downs gone down the field got their touchdown that game was going to be over but it played into my homes right the defense did step up when you need to they did get the stops and the first time all season he was able to score over 30 points like it's just the way it is none of it makes sense so um i do think it's interesting the fact that they are stubborn where me and you we learned our lesson with that raven's game last year like that was really enlightening to me of just it doesn't matter if it's a horrible matcher

for my homes and he's going against one of the best teams i've ever seen that raveans Ravens team was last year. It didn't matter. You overcame it with a horrible team and they ended up winning a Super Bowl. The same thing could be said for him this year. It's like, we know they're not that great of a team. When we talked, like they have an awful offensive line.

They somehow went 15 and 1. Like he just overcomes all these things. So I'm right there with you. Like, you know, my view of this Eagles team is, you know, yeah, sure, they've had a pretty easy path. I mean, both Super Bowls they've made it to in the last three years. They only need to beat a rookie quarterback. and their conference championship to make it.

Mahomes had to beat Josh Allen and Lamar. It's like we are not the same. Those are totally different world. So I totally get that viewpoint, but I do think it's interesting that, you know, coming to the season, anyone you talked to had a higher grade in review on Jordan Love or Stafford.

And he basically, the Eagles basically beat those two teams by double digits. And we all heard the noise coming to this, right? Jane Daniels, people are viewing him as the best quarterback to NFC right now. And he got absolutely rolled in that game against the Eagles. He put up 23 points. So this is a defense that have stepped up every quarterback they've faced.

They're now going against the best quarterback we've ever seen arguably. So can they do it one more time? We know the Dan the Fang's defense, right? He actually matches up pretty well with Mahomes just because he only rushes four. But in those games, we never saw Fangs have a good quarterback another side. So we know he's 0 for 8, but those we talked about those numbers are a little skewed. Evan helped us break that down that it's not as overwhelmingly terrible as you think it would be. I know why pros are betting this Eagles team chat,

but like we joked, we've learned our lesson. As long as we're getting in my homes with Andy Reed is under three points. Me and you are not going to overthink it anymore. And I'm so happy because I'm not going to let you. I was worried you were going to try to zag on this one. But no, we both came to the dark side.

We're both on the Chiefs. No, but what's interesting is you mentioned the regression. And I was actually talking about this with someone yesterday, which was, we're so dug in on the chiefs, are we not accounting for the possibility of regression? Brandon, at what point do the numbers become so big that regression isn't the norm, regression is the anomaly, and have we hit that? Yeah, I mean, I think we have to account that, that, you know, there is always the exception

proves the rule, and it certainly seems like Mahalo. Holmes, read, the whole Chiefs thing, have become the exception that proves the rule. And I think, too, even betting against regression, you bet against regression, you know, on a future's ticket for the whole playoffs, or you bet against regression on an entire regular season ticket. You don't necessarily bet against it in one game because now you're trying to catch the falling knife and how do we know if regression came this game? Maybe it does.

Maybe the Chiefs go, you know, 0 for 5 on 4th down in this game or something, or maybe the Eagles go five for five in the red zone and four for four and fourth down like you know fumble lock all those things that's why we watch the sport that's why it's a fun sport to watch and bet on because the ball is oblong and weird stuff's going to happen but at some point you create your own luck and it sure seems like somehow the chiefs keep creating their own luck like they're up with the luck rankings every time of course but all right at some point are they breaking that formula too like is it just always going to come up Patrick and Holmes, it feels like it's starting to look that way. And I think, too, as we look at, you know, the metrics and the power ratings,

I think we have to have learned by now also that that formula just doesn't work for the chiefs in the playoffs, which is just not representative of what they are. They're saving plays for the playoffs. They're, in fact, probably purposefully burning bad plays or plays that might be bad to get them on tape in the regular season to set them up for the playoffs. Spaggs is saving his best stuff. Like we talked about that Josh Allen play, the big one, where they got three guys coming off the edge.

And everyone was upset about, well, should he have thrown it to Shakira underneath? You know, he hits Kincaid in the hand. Should he have Kyle? All the Bill's guys said, we didn't know that that Blitz was coming. Like they set up that one all game long, all season long. This was a different thing. They waited all year for one play when they needed it. Because they're the chiefs and they can.

because they know they're going to be here again, and they're playing a totally different game than everyone else. They're not fighting to get down to the end. They're going to be at the end anyways. So the whole thing is a chess game toward the end. So their defensive metrics in October and November, who cares? Doesn't matter.

It doesn't factor into how we have to think about them right now. Patrick Holmes, 10th best EPA or whatever it was for the season. Doesn't matter. Now it's Patrick Holmes in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl, and that's the version we have to get. And so somehow that too is like unquantifiable in a power rating system and a setup of what the chiefs are is that they're playing a different game than everyone else. And the metrics that we all use to measure things and try to capture stuff like this

just don't quite work in a playoff setting when they have different rules. And it's kind of like the Patriots too, that they have their own rules, they did their own thing, and it somehow found a way to work. It's also harder for regression to come when three different factors, meaning Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, and Patrick Mahomes need to underperform on the same exact play at the same exact time and the same exact circumstances. That's just not likely to happen. And those are the three factors that create this alchemy that is, as we've said, unquantifiable. That's been my argument, though, what you just said. I say. I believe that you're right. Regression is coming once those pieces are gone. Okay, like Mahomes, this will come back around.

That has to be once Andy or Spag. Someone, something has to change dramatically for this team to have regression in that type of way. And that's been my pushback against it. Same thing last week. Like guys who are hamming the bills because they love that bill's number of that side. I kept pushing them back against it saying you're overthinking this.

Like that regression, you can't qualify it to these one or two games. They're just, it doesn't work that way, especially with Mahomes. And, you know, so far we've seen it. It's told true. He's 80-0 when it's under three points in the playoffs. It's just you can't wrap your head around it. All you got to do is not overthinking, just bet it.

Brandon, we have a note in here about betting on Super Bowl defense. Explain yourself. Yeah, I always, always want to bet on defense to make big plays in Super Bowl. For whatever reason, defenses just score touchdowns at this way outlier rate in the Super Bowl. Last Super Bowl matchup, Nick Bolton returns a fumble. Jail and Hurst just dropped the ball. ball basically. Nick Bolton returns for a touchdown. And don't forget, later in the game, we thought he returned a second fumble for a touchdown. That's the overturned in that game.

Otherwise, he's MVP in that game. There are in 58 Super Bowls, 22 defensive touchdowns. There's been at least one in 19 out of 58. So that's almost one in every three Super Bowls that were getting a touchdown. Is it random lock? It might be. 58's not a big sample size. But to me, it's defenses that are overprepped and scouted so that they kind of know when to jump the pass lane, no to go for something, and its teams emptying the tank. You may as well throw that pick six because you're just going to lose Super Bowl anyways unless you give it a shot. So to me, you want to bet on defense touchdowns somehow in the Super Bowl because this is just a go-to every year. Now this year, I think it's a little less likely. These teams are both

very careful with the ball. They're not turning over a lot. But that's, of course, true of all Super Bowl teams. That's how you get to the Super Bowl and somehow this thing keeps happening. So depending on the book you play, pay attention how you're betting it. There's defense touchdown. There's defense special teams touchdown. Special teams a little more muted this year. I don't need to pay to include special teams. Usually these are interceptions. 11 out of 13 defense touchdowns since 2000 have been interceptions, not fumble recoveries. In this game, maybe a little bit less so because we're going to get a lot of running, of course, from Philadelphia. And the key thing for me, those 22 defense

touchdowns, all but three came by the winning team. So, What I want to do is I'm going to get aggressive. I always love to give up some outs, get aggressive, and get the better number. The Chief's defense to score touchdown in a Chief's win is plus 9.50. Or you can do Eagles. Same thing. Eagles defense touchdown in Eagles win plus 1,000. Simon, you talked about like, what's the edge?

What's the way the Eagles find a way to win? Well, very often in a game like this, the way is the ball bounced weird. We picked up a fumble. We ran it in. Oh, look, seven points free for us. turns out that's a pretty good way to flip a coin flip outcome. You can bet both of those. Chiefs defense touchdown in their win, Eagles defense touchdown and their win together is basically like an implied plus 437. That's 19% likely. That outcome has happened. A defensive

touchdown by the winner, 28% of the time. So that's a pretty huge edge in your favor. And I think, too, defensive MVP is in play. We've had that almost one in six Super Bowls, 15.5% of the time, you can just bet any defender MVP at many books, 15 to 1, or I think you want to sprinkle some long shots, Nick Bolton, guy that could have won it last time is 400 to 1 at one book. Nolan Smith, the guy that I know we've talked about as a sackmaster, against those bad tackles, 300 to 1. Linebackers are three of the last four this century that have been a defensive MVP.

I just have to have some piece of defense. I'm going to bet at every single Super Bowl. because it hits more often than it doesn't, and the numbers don't reflect it. What do you think of that, Simon? I love it. I mean, honestly, it's this the type of game where that obviously could change the whole game.

If your team's going to win, they get defensive touchdown. We saw the last time they played. That's how the Chiefs basically won their game, right? The Eagles played a perfect first half, but did that? Because it was 21 to 10. That seven points mattered in the end.

Like, you know, Mahomes woke up the second half, and that was all she wrote. So, yeah, that's an interesting play. And I was trying to think, Chad, who the hell was the last special teams? Was it Devin Hester? Was that the last special teams touchdown against the Colts? That seems like that's 18 years ago. I know.

I was like, is it a Percy Harvin? I was trying to think who the hell in the Super Bowl did it? It's like, Brandon brings up a great point here. That's like a dumb bet to make special teams with the defense. You might as well get rid of that and just go strictly defense just because unless you're a Hall of Fame or apparently you're not going to score a random ass touchdown in the Super Bowl. I mean, even Cadarius Tony got close. against the Eagles, but he didn't score, I don't think.

I do feel like Percy Harvin scored a touchdown, but I can't remember who it was for. It would be Seahawks, I'd guess, right? Oh, right. You're right, I can't remember either. I think he did that. We're just making a point. That's how insanely rare it is to score of special teams.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed two. First people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.

Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. but we could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman

help make you funnier. This week, my guest, NFL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends

on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy. But I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out.

Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No. I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life. That is not the look of an innocent man.

This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet.

Help! Somebody, please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian, and recently I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike! I'm a comedian!

I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Oh, cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrat, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know.

Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Coutura Podcast Network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brandon, we've talked a lot about Xavier Worthy. this week. I personally parlayed Xavier Worthy under five and a half receptions and Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown. Thanks to Dr. Nick Giffin. That was 4 to 1. Simon, why are you laughing at that? Just because I just love you bringing this up every show.

You're just a wild man. Every show. Every show. I got props I haven't even given out yet. You're still bringing up props we've talked every show. Well, I know Brandon has some thoughts on Xavier Worthy. Yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is, in this particular match I think he could be the key to the Chief's offensive attack.

So the whole point of Fangio defense, take away the deep, take away the middle, this particular defense takes away tight ends and running backs really well. Running back screens, obviously, is the Anderee specialty. That's a lot of stuff they're taken away,

but that really sets up to exactly how the Chiefs play. Much to our chagrin, we want to see Patternorm Holmes do the stuff he used to do, but he'd stop doing the stuff he used to do because half the defense started doing Fangio defense,

and all the quarterbacks had to start doing the short stuff and eating that way. So Eagles play zone about two-thirds of the snaps. They play a lot of cover four and cover six, more cover six than any human the NFL. The way you beat that scheme is in the flats. You beat cover three, another thing that Eagles play a lot of with horizontal stretches. Okay, well, who am I throwing to in the flat or getting my speed guy in a horizontal stretch? That's Xavier worthy all game long. 62 of his 70 catches this season have been either short or behind the line.

scrimmage. PFF grade 90 or better on those, average seven and a half yards after completion. That is the whole thing was if you're worthy. Now, the chiefs took a while to realize that. They thought he was Tyree Kill for the first 12 weeks this season. And he had a 12 yards a dot. Then after that, six yard a dot. They totally changed how they've been using him, week 13 forward. And I've been betting his overs throughout the playoffs on receptions. In the flats alone, his EPA per play is 99th percentile. This is the best weapon right now, maybe in the league or close to it, getting it out on quick pass to the chiefs are the number one team on quick passes

where Xavier Worthy is getting about a third of those for the season. Last four games alone, 16 and a half EPA added on quick passes. So I never would have guessed this guy who I'm about to mention would show on a Super Bowl show. Wondale Robinson for the Giants. To me is a key name to look at here. Comparing to Xavier Worthy. just a similar but clearly worse style player.

In both Giants games this season, he had six catches and 10 catches. Now they didn't go very well because it's Wondale Robinson, but he had more catches and more targets than Malik neighbors, both those games because that's how you attack this defense. So I love Xavier Worthy in this game. Last five games, he's averaging 6.4 catches a game. He's averaging 46 yards after the catch.

So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but I think big plays, a chance to get into the end zone, get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown bet for the last five. We know he's going to run the ball a time or two. A lot of people I know are betting the over five and a half rush yards. He's had a carry at least in 14 games this season. He's had five or more yards rushing in 11 of those 14. So I think that's a good way.

And then my favorite way is I'm just on the volume receptions. So over five and a half reception that's still plus money for Xavier Worthy. That's gone up in the first. playoffs but I think it's still good price. And then you know me with the escalator, seven or more receptions around plus 225, eight or more plus 425. I can't quite get there on MVP because same thing with Travis Kelsey, who's throwing the ball on all these?

It's still going to be Pat getting the credit for it. So I think if you want an MVP look for worthy, the upside is maybe he runs it in or maybe a special teams or trick play. Okay, well, bet that. There's a different way you can play it. Bet like a longest rush or some other creative. way to do it. Paprick is too big of a deal to go MVP. I do notice, though, his, his longest reception prop is around 21 yards or so. So a Nick Giffin special here for me,

negative correlated bet over five and a half catches under 21 longest reception. Last week, or against the bills, he had that long catch. That was probably not a catch, right? That the rest decided it was a catch. Other than that play, he's not gone 21 yards or more in like seven games. So these aren't really huge long plays. They're just zero yard passes that he's ripping around the end for 12 yards, 15 yards, 9 yards, over and over. So I think that's something the Chiefs will attack a lot. And you can get over on the receptions under on the longest catch is plus 411 because it's negative correlation. So I think just lots of fun ways to play Xavierworthy in this game. Simon, what props of yours I want to hear should we be discussing right now?

My favorite one is definitely both teams that have successful fourth down. So basically you need the Eagles converted fourth down, Chiefs converted a fourth down. Both these teams, I feel like are going to go for higher risk. Like they know what's at stake year, especially Sierra Nis heard all week about that punt he did take the last time they played and not going for it on fourth down. No chance he doesn't go for it.

It was minus 120 when I told you this morning, Chad. It's already up to minus 125. So that's a number that's moving on Beth 365. Um, another one we already talked about with Chris Raybon, either team to win by exactly three points. I think it's fun. It's plus 400. Yes. And we, we just talked about like, we think the Eagles are going to, you know, perform well.

First half. We just don't trust them full game. If you like that bet, like if you just want to take the Eagles first half, me and chat already said, we, we like the chiefs full game. I've made this Ben. This is another number that's moving. The chiefs were the Eagles were, Eagles win first half. Chiefs to win the game was plus six. 50 on bet three six five it's down to plus five 50 now so that number as well is moving so that's

another way you're going to try to attack this where you know mohomes i believe was stucky or maybe was chris gave out an amazing stat that he is o for four in his career in first half against the spread so that's another way you can play it where you know he gets down by 10 points in the first half he ends up winning these games mohomes so that's that's a fun value bet if you're not alive better you can't attack that this is another way to play that market just take the eagles first half cheap to win the game that's a fun plot yeah Stucky gave out Eagles first half, I think plus one and a half, so not exactly a win, but plus one and a half in the Action Network podcast Sunday six-pack. You mentioned Super Bowl MVP a couple of times, Brandon, both with defensive players and Xavier Worthy, why you wouldn't want to bet him for MVP.

Do you have MVP thoughts that are not Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hertz? Do I have MVP thoughts, chat? I always have MVP thoughts. quarterback obviously is who you want here most of the time. 57% of all MVPs are quarterbacks. 13 of the last 18 have been just the quarterback on the winning team, 72%. So about three out of four times basically that that's just what we do. We know that already, right?

If it's not a quarterback, actually defender is what you want most. That's why I already gave that one out. 10 defenders, 9 receivers, no tight ends notable in this one because Travis Kelsey. Only seven running backs, too. Last one, Terrell Davis, 1998. It's been a minute and a few. since we got a running back. So to me, I mentioned not Xavier worthy,

but you got to start the topic, kind of work your way down here. I'm not going to bet Patrick Mahomes to an MVP, even though he very clearly is the heavy favorite to an MVP. It's plus 110. The Chiefs, you can basically bet minus one now, minus 110. So in order for that to be the right way to bet the Chiefs,

I know we all want to sneak in the extra 20 cents of value, Patrick Mahomes has to win MVP, like 91% of all Chiefs victories for that to be the right bet. And I know it feels like he's 100%. But he's not 100%. Like you can literally go through the schedule this year and say, okay, who would have won MVP that game? And he wins MVP like probably 14 or 15 of the games, which is 85%, which is a lot. And it's still not 91%.

So you shouldn't bet Mahomes. There's too much randomness there. I personally can't bet Seqlant. He has been, I think the Eagles MVP in something like eight to 10 games this season, way more than you'd expect a running back to be at, including I would say all three playoff games so far. but at plus 280, he's got to be MVP over half of all Eagles wins for that to be the bet. And I know that's what it feels like with him, but no running back. We're over the last 26 years in a running back winning Super Bowl MVP. And I'm supposed to bet that the Eagles win the game and over half of the time he's MVP.

To me, the way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I think Jalen Hertz MVP is a right play. And I think it's actually a great way to invest in Philly and sort of hedge against my Kansas City bet because I think the Chiefs with the Super Bowl because of Jalen Hertz. But if I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I also think it'll be because Jalen Hertz.

I think it'll be because Hertz did the tush push, got the touchdowns, got the scrambles. But I think because he did what he did last time in the Super Bowl, frankly, he would have won MVP clearly if they won that game. Oh, yeah. He showed up as a pass. He was plus 140 in the Super Bowl last time. Now he's plus 380.

That's because Sequin showed up and soaked up a lot of that value for MVP. But quarterbacks win MVP, 72% of the last 18 years. He only has to win MVP 43% of Eagles wins for this to be the right bet. So to me, I think that's just, it's just value. Even though I said this is the reason I'm not picking them, I think you can be wrong about something. And sometimes it's okay to bet of what if I'm wrong about this? and I think this is a great way to possibly be wrong about it.

Longer down the board of the other weapons, I like Devante 66 to 1. He was 33 to 1 last time. I think that the chiefs are going to adjust and play more zone than they usually do. Devante is the zone beater. He's had 99 yards, all three games against Spags. So I kind of like that as just a dart throw late, and I mentioned those defenders.

But to me, it's three main guys you're starting at. It's Saquan, it's Hertz, and it's Mahomes. And only one of those numbers, I think, is the right number to play. someone would argue not me because I'm not crazy somewhat argue that Super Bowl was really the last time Jalen Hertz had a good game I mean it's probably his best game he ever played right Simon Simon did you hear what I said

yeah you're Chicago fan you don't know what good quarterbacks look like he does now they got Ben Johnson it is interesting you know when you put the odds in that context for Sequin I bet if you ask the average fan, and there have been studies about this about sort of decision making and rationale, that people's memories of things

influences and has more weight than it actually does in real life. And I bet if you went to most fans and said, was Sequin the MVP of an Eagles win, 50% of the time, people would say, oh yes, for sure this year, when in reality he wasn't, that's a fascinating. It is.

Why are you laughing? It's fascinating. Oh, God. Can we get to Evan? Not yet. Brandon. Brandon, before you go, give us one future for next season. I love your hot reads on the Action Network podcast

when you're giving us the two bets you're making right away. seven days in advance. We are seven months in advance. Give us a future. Yeah, here's the 2026 hot read, a full year in advance. So I have an article just went up at the Action Network.com

on who is next year's Eagles? Who's next year's Chiefs, next year's commanders? And this is one we've done a few years in a row. Last year in this article, I picked as next year's Ravens, then Philadelphia Eagles,

22 to 1, my first Super Bowl bet, a year ago because they fit a formula of, okay, they started out 10 and 1 last year. They were coming off a Super Bowl birth and they just fell apart late, but the system was there, right? We knew what would work and what worked this year obviously is elite defense, devastating rushing attack. Okay, so who are next year's Eagles? My first Super Bowl bet for the new year, San Francisco 49ers. It fits the Eagles formula. Kyle Shanahan has been in the NFC championship game five of the last nine years. there is no Patrick Mahomes in the

NFC but Calh-Shanehan might be as close as we get over in the NFC to just showing up year after year since they acquired Christian McCaffrey they've been an offensive juggernaut and nothing changed this year nobody magically learned how to stop them they just stopped being healthy ever

McCaffrey played four games Ike missed 10, Trent Williams Miss 7 Hurdy, Debo, Kittle all missed multiple games so the offense is going to be great we know that about them and then you get the Fangio part here Robert Sala, coming back from the Jets, coming home to get rid of Nick Sorensen, the failed

defensive coordinator. Salah's defense has been allowed top five fewest yards, five of the last six seasons. That defense under Sala is going to be way better. And we saw even this year, as bad as the Jets were a laughing stock, Sala left, that defense fell apart. Like, they were still decent defense. He leaves, and they just completely went to shambles after that. This year, the Niners.

even in a season from hell still finish top 10 offense still finish almost top 10 defense by DVOA they went two and six and one score games flip those results that we know are mostly elect-driven unless you're the chiefs and Patrick Mahomes just flip those results they win the division at 10 and 7

even in the year from hell to me the Niners are right there with the top five their price at number six but kind of a distant six at every book they to me are probably the favorite in the NFC right now knowing what we know about Sala on the defense and everything on the offense, they'll be right in the mix.

20 to 1-9ers is my first Super Bowl pick for next season. Wow. I like it. It's exciting. Check out all of Brandon's picks for Super Bowl 50 on his Super Bowl best bets episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan Abrams, who we will get to shortly. We got a little bit of work left to do,

along with Super Bowl articles out now at Action Network.com. Thank you, Brandon Anderson. Great work. Simon, guess what? What? It's time for the big ball. Our last one of the year presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

Great games. Start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. Look, we've talked about the Chiefs. We've talked about the money line. We've talked about the side. The money line was my exact decision. The side was Simon says, we're going with the total.

It's moved down. It was about 50, 50 and a half, then 49.5. Down to 48 and a half, a lot of places. You can still get a 49 at Bet 365. Simon, this is a big ball's bet because I think we're both a little bit antsy about it. Yeah, and it's really probably the most heavy of the game for splits-wise of the public versus professionals, right? It's just only professionals,

the only people I've talked to, especially walk on the sports books, talking to different fans, especially Eagles fans. They're just like, we put up 55 last week. We're getting at least 40 against this chief defense. And in the back of mind,

I'm just like, yeah, that's not how this works at all. Yeah, I get why the public is so excited about it, but me and you talked about, it's a key number still 49. Please grab that while you still can because the fear is right now that this professional money is going to keep dropping this down to 48 and a half, 48.

So we're crossing some key numbers here. You want to get that 49. It's a big deal to get it. The one thing that worries me is we see so often with these Super Bowls, things go crazy in the second half. Yeah. You know, the Chiefs have been down 10 points, 7 points, whatever, in multiple Super Bowls, low scoring Super Bowls, 10-3, whatever it was.

And then they come back and in the second half, 5, 6, touch, by both teams, how do you feel about under 24 and a half in the first half? I don't mind it. I mean, I like it and I bet it. And, you know, Dr. Nick came on here and talked about how the chief's second half unders have been a cash cow these last two years. And we've been betting that as well. So I'll be honest with you, Chad.

It's never fun doing it. We're just playing the numbers. And this is a long-term winner. Like the biggest sweat of my life, we literally hit the under last year, a game that went to overtime. And we hit it by half a point. So that might be peak for us. It's usually, in my opinion, won't be that close.

Like, you, to hit this over, you're going to need a ton of luck on both sides in the red zone. Like both these teams make their money, make a team kick field goals on the same side. Eagles have been inconsistent this year in the red zone. Same with the Chiefs. Like, I mean, even the playoffs, chat, how many times are you losing your damn mind when Hertz would take that sack and get out of field goal range and they're punting? You do that against the Chiefs, you're dead. Like, you're not going to, you're not heading an over.

So I just think it's an overreaction by the public way too much. There's still a ton of value on this under, in my opinion. All right, we're going with the under as our big balls bet of the week. Simon, what a wild season we've had. So many ups and down since week one, scant 23 weeks ago. And right there, holding us up, supporting us every step of the way. We're two crucial parties. First, our tens of thousands of incredible listeners, but even more important, are dozens of pairs of Tommy John underwear. By providing us with the most comfortable underwear shirts and casual essentials, the grind of the NFL season never broke our joyful spirits, nor clouded our clear-eyed decision-making all season long we told us. you, if you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support, and it's true. We did have the balls,

and they did have our support. So if you've enjoyed yourself this season, do yourself and your loved ones a favor. Let the unrivaled comfort and flexibility of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John, into your life. Simon, why will you be wearing more? Tommy John in 2025. Because comfort is king. Right now, you can shop Tommyjohn.com slash favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at Tommyjohn.com slash favorites. That's Tommyjohn.com slash favorites.

Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a podcast. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special.

So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast.

podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy. But I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like?

No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living, double life. That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Ardano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet.

Help! Somebody! Blank! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian, and recently I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.

Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're, On your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrat, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know.

Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the MyCultura Podcast Network available on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit with the Edge Boost Visa debit card. You receive up to half a percent cashback on all your sportsbook, Daily Fantasy Site, and casino transaction.

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combet today to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost. I got to say, I used it, used it this past week. not only was it super easy, but then I did get the cash back in my account. It was great. I was so excited. All right, Foxhole. You know me regardless of what's going on.

I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. We're going with Saquan Barkley under his total rushing yards of 112. The number's been coming down. Raybon has this projected at close to. to 106.

Kerners at 110. I think a lot of the stuff, if everyone listened to Tuesday, we were talking a lot about leaning into under offensive yardage totals. We especially were looking at the under

total rushing yardage total and we like obviously Sequin to go under 112. Simon also mentioned a really fun one. Both teams to be successful, fourth down minus 125 now at Bet 365.

But Foxhole is Saquine Barkley under 112 rushing yards. Simon, your biggest bets. Biggest bets, definitely in the under. That's my biggest position. I'm as you, Chad, fourth game on. I wish I could just take this week off because I hate going against my favorite team of the Eagles,

but it's lining up that way. Pretty heavy on the chief side, pretty heavy on the under. When it comes to the prop market, definitely that fourth down one's a big one. Will there be a two-pointer? I bet pretty heavy on. And, you know, Chad knows. my favorite bet is usually one offensive linemen score a touchdown.

I didn't take it this year just because both these teams aren't, I haven't really been that style this season. Like the year we hit it when it was McVeigh, we saw, we kind of had inside info that McVeigh had been practiced in a two weeks leading up to that Super Bowl. I don't have any great tips like that, but if you want to bet any other player to make a pass attempt, I believe it's plus two six.

That's always a fun one as well. So there's a lot of fun props out there, obviously. And as we get closer to game time, I'll try to tweet more out as well. Definitely. I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line. And also Patrick Mahomes, under 36 and a half pass attempts, which is basically correlated if you think the Chiefs are going to win,

it's likely going to be because they're holding a lead and not passing very often. All right, finally, finally, as Simon has requested, we are getting to Evan Abrams, our director of research. He's got a brand new article up on Actionnetwork.com. be sure to check that out. Super Bowl specific. Evan, you get the last word, brother.

The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. What's up, guys? I'm just going to start off the top here and note on something Brandon said, and I hate to agree with him because I kind of do all the time, but we are a podcast partner, so it's okay. But the Barclay MVP odds is so fascinating.

So each of the last 21 Super Bowls since 2003, which is when we have data, had QBs, one, two, and odds. So Barclay would be the shortest odds and first to be one, two, other than a quarterback, which is kind of crazy considering Marshaun Lynch, Schlaier Fitzgerald, Sean Alexander, all in that span. So fascinating there. My first note is from our favorite Canadian, Mr. Gallant. So in each of the Kansas City Chiefs, three Super Bowl wins, four Chiefs, one in each, has scored a touchdown at plus 500 odds or higher. Mahomes, 2020, Sky Moore, 2023.

Cadarius 2023 and McCall Hardman in 24. So right now that actually leads a bunch of options. Hopkins, Juju, P. Rhine, Watson, even Chiefs defense are options. My bet probably there would be Juju, fourth most routes and pass snaps in the conference championship. And actually fourth most routes in the playoffs for the Chiefs. He's getting just a lot of looks there. The other thing that's kind of crazy, Hollywood's a dot averaged up the target in the playoffs is almost 20 yards downfield. So getting a lot of deep looks.

So those are the two there. Any thoughts before I keep going? I got a bunch of bets here. My only thoughts are keep fucking going. I can't get enough of what you're saying. AC running back to bait to me is a large discussion. So Hunt out snap Pacheco in each the last four games. 4.1 yards per carry to 3.0.

Even percent of carries, three yards or more. 58% for Hunt, 44% for Pacheco. So I'm going to try to believe that Hunt's going to get the majority of carries here, which is going to go to these two bets. So two longshund. shots. First to 20 yards in the game, Kareem Hunt is plus $4.50, which I think is intriguing. Obviously, Casey starting out with the ball would be nice. But four first quarter carries against Buffalo. In the Houston game, they actually started with Pacheco. But he went minus one, six yards,

one yard, and then he was done. And then Pittsburgh, which is a game before that, Hunt gets three first quarter carry. So I think him getting a few chunk plays, four yards, six yards, eight yards to get to that 20 before like Barkley is intriguing. The second bet is him to just score two touchdowns in this game. Everyone's betting on him to score one touchdown. He's scored a touchdown in four straight games. He's actually scored a touchdown on all six of his playoff games, which is getting close to a record. But look at this. Casey's carries inside the five-yard line this season. Hunt has 17. The rest of Kansas City has 11. And then you think about just reliability. I mean, Pacheco and Hunt both haven't fumbled this year. But if you look at Hunt,

He hasn't fumbled since 2021. So I feel like in this type of game, they're going to rely on him. Andy Reid also loves him. He's a great story. I kind of see him getting a lot of love here. So two touchdowns at 10 to 1 is my other bet with Kareem Hunt. Nice. I like it.

Love it. All right. Sequan Barkley. So I'm looking at this at two different angles. Our Discord's going to hate me from bringing this out because they've actually been talking about this and I was upset that they brought it up. But Bet365 has his longest rush attempt in the game. He was actually minus 1.

105, like about two days ago, it's now up to minus 150 for him to have the longest rush attempt in the game. So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has like eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options for him to stay atop this market, I just think are plenty. I'll just regular season, he was 11 and 5 for just Philly in terms of having the longest rush in their games and 10 and 6 in the game itself. Two and one in the playoffs are having a longest rush. And then if you just look at Philly as part of the field, because Kansas City really struggles in that second level yards and open field yards, like they get small chunks, which I think helps play to this. If you look at Philly had 90 plays of 10 plus yards on the

ground this year, 36, everyone else but Sequeon, 54 for Seekwon. So I just feel like there's so many outs here. I still like it in the minus 150 range. And then the other prop, which is a little bit contradicting, but I heard you guys say you like Sequin under his full game prop. I think a more interesting one is first half. It's 58 and a half. In the first half this season, he has 11 rushes of 13 plus yards. Four of those 11 came just versus Washington. So to me, I think this line is just a little bit inflated, and I think we're getting a good price considering. Also, he is a second half monster. Most carry, most rushing yards, most tax. Most tax. plus yards all in the second half.

And Casey, not lately. They've been struggling with explosive runs lately, but only allowed 42 of at least 10 yards, which is the fourth fewest in the NFL all year. So I do believe Spaggs is going to focus on him, which is going to help that early bet. And then I think he finds some longer runs to cash our first bet in the second half. It's really going between two bets, but I kind of like the value on both. I like the value on everything you say, Evan. I think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous.

I was worried when you guys are going through some of these bets to be on your side. This one, unfortunately, which is, I have one more after this, which kind of just backs up Simon, but this one's not with you guys, but it's just another angle. So it's called reversal of fortune. Mahomes has trailed at the half in all four of his superl appearances. Stucky said that. Simon said that earlier. But this year, he's actually led at the half in eight straight games.

So I believe the storyline each year in the Super Bowl of a Casey comeback just is a little noisy. Like obviously the Hertz fumble really helped Casey get back in the game last time. So I feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in the Super Bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal and a miss field goal. And the thing that I think is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less plays than Kansas City. When they run no huddle, second highest rate in the NFL behind the commanders, and they still. run it at the highest rate in the NFL when they're behind. So I kind of feel like Casey wins the first half. Philly wins the full game is seven or eight to one, depending on the book. While that same bet, if you flip it, is six to one, even five, 50 for Kansas City. So I know everyone likes Kansas City

to win the game, but I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring it out in the second half, because think about this, Eagles have a rock bottom 40% pass rate when leading by at least a score. It jumps to 58% when trailing. So I do feel like they're going to run the ball when they're trailing and even passive even more and get back in the game. So I kind of like that price. It's between 7 and 8 to 1. No, I think it's interesting take he's as. My view is the chiefs basically, not that the AFC doesn't have good pass rush, but he's basically every year he makes this Super Bowl. He's facing arguably the best pass rush of the NFC, right? The Eagles two years

and the 49ers and even that Tampa team had a great pass for us. So that to me also is where it's like, my homes goes from doing a hell he wants against an easy pass rush in the AFC to being like, holy shit, these are really good, really good pass rush in the first half and it takes them a little bit to adjust to it. So interesting

view from Evan, obviously it's a nothing trend, right? It's four games. So I get this point of like, it doesn't really make much sense, but I just love the angle of Eagles first half, Chiefs full game. All right, listen. This was our Super Bowl podcast. Thank you, Brandon. Thank you, Evan. Simon and I are filled with immense gratitude for both of you and Gifford and Matt Mitchell and everybody who's listened all season

long. We are rolling with the Chiefs into the Super Bowl. We are on the under. That's our big balls. We will be back with our post-super Bowl wrap-up after the game that Monday. As a reminder, The Favor podcast is presented by Bet365 and now new Bet365 customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5. Get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player, props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment it's never ordinary at Bet365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana.

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