The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl LVI Best Bets

Episode Date: February 12, 2022

It all comes down to this. Action Network Chief Content Officer Chad Millman is joined by professional sports bettor Simon Hunter for this final episode of the NFL Season as they firm up their final bets for Super Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams. Together they go through the side and total, examining the market movements and professional gambler intel Simon received throughout the week. They discuss betting strategies and the risks inherent in what is often a flukey game in which pressure is at an all-time high. But when it is all said and done, Chad and Simon put their names besides the picks they'll be hanging their hats on come Super Bowl Sunday. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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likely to lift the Lombard. We've got the best set on Radio Row, more access than anyone and the analysis you can only get from former NFL scouts. Listen to the Move the Sticks podcast, Super Bowl Week, on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever get your podcast. The Favorites podcast is presented by Fandual's sportsbook. There's no better place to make every moment more during the Super Bowl than with Fanduel. And new users can bet $5 to win $280 in cash on either team to win.

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1-877-S-70 S-T-O-P in Louisiana. Call the Tennessee Red Line 1-8009-9-9-9-7-89 or visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. It is the final podcast before the Super Bowl. We're finally getting there between the Bengals and the Rams. Rams currently four-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals. I am joined as I am every week, as I have been for the entire football season,

by my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter, brother. Brother. We got one game, one side, one total to talk about today. That's it, brother. If you're a fan of either of these teams, this is like not the greatest experience of your life. I don't know how people, other people's lives, but going on a Super Bowl run,

having your team in the Super Bowl. And if you win said Super Bowl, it's seriously one of those moments you will remember the rest of your life. Remember every little detail where you were, what you guys did after the Super Bowl, after you won, everything. It's the best. I'm just so excited for both fan bases and for us gamblers, Chad. We all know this is the biggest betting night of the year in America. So I can't wait.

Listen, it's massive. There's no sugar-coding yet. With professional betting being the way it is now, with New York having come online, New York in one month, in three weeks, did more handle than New Jersey had done in. in three years in a single month. Like the attention being paid to sports betting right now is bigger than it ever has. We're glad to be a part of the conversation. We're glad to give people that information.

Simon, you've had two weeks off. You didn't have a game to prep for this past weekend. So tell us how a professional better spends the off week. Do you go anywhere? Do you get together with other professional betters? Is there like a professional better, you know, getaway? What happens? Well, you know, there are no real off week. So definitely put in the 70 hours, you know, starting Sunday night working into, I would guess, Thursday afternoon and made a bunch of bets, got a bunch of stuff done. Then I told you Thursday night, I was going to see Jackass Forever, which if people are, you were into comedy, especially physical comedy. If you've never seen any of the jackasses, it doesn't matter. It's seriously one of the funniest movies I've seen in a long time. Like literally, I was in tears, which for a boy is good. I'm kind of dead inside, so I rarely laugh really hard.

I was dying. It was much needed. Went to bed, woke up, flew down to Miami, met up with a couple of guys I work with. They do other sports. Definitely had a good time with them Friday night. Saturday was more business. I met with two other groups that I worked with a little bit. Like we trade info with them. Met with their football guys. A couple of them I haven't met because of COVID. So it's kind of like kind of like a boring suit and tie kind of thing. And then once the grownups that left, the adults. We had a good time Saturday night.

And then Sunday, it was just more hanging out at a guy's house, BS, and then I went and met up with a couple of clients. And then I think we've talked about a little bit in the past, and they're probably not really talking about this year. A lot of my money I make is off tips. It's not so much my betting. It's like I bet with the group or the clients or whatever. So when I go on these little trips, usually I'm getting some type of money.

So I had a couple of runners down there. They're all driving up right now coming back up. to New Jersey with some of my cash, some other guys' cash. Like, it's honestly a fun weekend before the Super Bowl weekend, which all these same guys I was just with, they're all going to Vegas. They're all going to L.A. for this game. I'm not doing any of that. I'm so burned out.

I've had all my fun. This week, I'm more just focus on, you know, getting all my, the rest of my bets and even though I made a bunch of bets. And it's just, it's more work for me than a lot of older professional guys. This is like, this is a vacation. Their season's kind of done. They do bet to Super Bowl. but it's like not as like people think it would be.

They're not betting a million dollars on the Bengals. That's Mattress Mac. Like that's not a pro coming in betting that amount. So it is definitely a fun kind of, you know, just you recap the whole season, right? Like, and then all of a sudden the Super Bowl happens. We might read, like you said, we'll recap it next week on Monday. And then it's over. It's like you're just on to the next season.

You're on to the draft. So it is kind of a world win this last two weeks. I will look. I'm sure when you guys were having your, you know, wise guy convention down in Miami, planning for the invasion of Havana like it was 1950 or whatever. We talked a lot about this last week. The bagels open is three and a half point underdogs immediately. I went to bed it Sunday night when it was three and a half.

I was going to bet the Bengals. And almost in the instant between seeing the line at three and a half and then opening the apps that I can bet on in Connecticut, the line jumped to four. So I grabbed the Bengals plus four thinking, nailed it. And yet money kept coming in on the Rams. All of a sudden, the line went to four and a half. So what were you guys talking about when you were down there? I mean, we definitely talked a lot of X and O's about this game,

but it was mainly like sports betters are. And who loves themselves more than a gambler, especially one that got something right. So I would say half of the time there was just guys talking about how right they were about the Rams because we talked all summer. I just, that was something I definitely missed where these pros, they read it perfectly. Like, they love the Rams. They love the fit with McVeigh and Stafford.

So I would say that was a lot of the talk down there, which is just how right these guys were. And again, we're going to have a whole offseason talk about it. We have the same scenarios coming up this off season. We have, again, who knows what's going to happen with Rogers? Who knows what's going to happen with Kyler Murray? Who knows what's going to happen with Watson? and there's going to be a lot of value in trying to find which team one of these free agent quarterbacks or one of these quarterbacks that aren't free agents are going to get traded to.

So that was honestly the biggest talk down there. Just talking about all the drama with all the quarterbacks in football, how there's so much value in these NFL of future. So that's like I can't wait for Monday. We're definitely going to touch on that. But for this game, it's honestly shocking how I, all the calls I was getting were on the Rams last week, hanging out professionals, talking to a bunch of different guys in hearing what they're hearing.

way more than I thought we're going to be wrong on the Bengals. A lot of pros do actually really like the Bengals. They look at this team that there was a biweek. Again, this is what they're saying. There was a biweek to say it was, you know, week 10 for this Bengals team. Since then, they've been top five in defense and offense, almost any metric you can look at. They've just been really good, especially at their efficiency,

where they give up yards on defense. They don't give up touchdowns. They put up yards on offense consistently. Like they don't just have a lot of three and outs. They're very, you know, they'll get a couple first downs and then maybe punt or they'll get a couple first downs and a field goal. That's, that's rare where a lot of teams, you know, they'll come out. They'll just go three and out. So we've seen just a very balanced team in this Bengals team.

I've had a lot more pros talk to me about that where I joked with you, Chad. I, like, looked at this line. I thought it should be three. I heard a bunch of pros saying they think it should be six. That's why they like the Rams. And I was just like, I don't see it. Like, I just don't see that with this Rams team. Yes, they are very talented and everything else like that.

Like I've seen the stats about Aaron Donald going up against this offensive line. Like that's a big advantage. But it was interesting hearing all the pros that were so pro Bengals because I honestly felt like I was on island last week. Like it felt like no one was taking the Bengals. So if people really wanted to know who the pros were betting, it's still skewed towards the Rams. More professionals had bet the Rams. But I would say it's more towards like four out of every 10 is on the Bengals where I thought it was going to be two out of 10. It's definitely more than I thought.

So I'm feeling better as the week has gone on here about this Bengals bet and this Bengals team. Like I'm really starting to like it. Yeah. To be clear, you and I both went in aggressively on the Bengals of plus four. It got up to four and a half. You bet it again at four and a half. I did not. I think we were thinking if I got to five, we'd probably bet it at five too.

Yeah. We had Stucky on the podcast last week, Stucky who co-hosts the Action Network podcast. podcast with Chris Raybaum. He liked the Bengals at plus four. It's the consensus in the action network gap. The projection for our models has the Bengals at plus four. But the huge money and the huge tickets are on the Rams, which gives me a little bit of pause. Definitely feel better. After hearing you say what you're saying about some of the market coming back in on the Bengals. It's just weird to me that there was so much sort of bias because of their season long opinion on the Rams from professional betters, given the way the Bengals have shown,

like they've had two games that they, that were, that they lost by more than three points all year. It just doesn't make any sense. Like, they play these games close and in a game like this, we've seen time and time again, Joe Burrow is not a guy who lets a game game. get out of hand. Like he finds a way late in the game to keep it closest. Why I like the Bengals, you know, against Kansas City at a big number. Like four isn't a big number, but the Rams, to me, aren't Kansas City. So like, this makes sense. But you'd agree with the pros that the literally the only spot you grade higher for the Bengals is the run game. Like Joe Mixon, he's better than Kay Makers or Sonny Michelle. Every other position on the field, you probably

give the favorite to the Rams team. Like, again, I get why people are arguing for the Rams side. Like, that's fair. Like, Joe Burrow, he's incredible. He's very young. Stafford is better at this point in his career. Like, he's just more proven. The week has gone on.

I really tried talking myself into the Rams. Because of what you've just talked about, it feels like other than pros, everyone in the media is on the Bengals. Like, it feels like that's the cool thing to do, right? Joe, cool, take the bangles. There's something about it. Luckily, the numbers back it up.

Because, like, I hate if I'm just blindly betting stuff off that. Like, I make this line three, four and a half four. That's good value for this Bengals team. And I don't know if you want to touch on it, chat. My favorite thing, we talk every year about it. I love betting Super Bowl's adjusted lines. That's just something I've always done. We talk all the time, nine out of ten Super Bowls do not matter with the spread.

So when I look at this line, people are going to say, did you take the Bengals money line? I do it different. I take a minus two and a half with this Bengals team. So I'm going to take the four and a half, the four, the Bengals. Instead of taking money line, I take the two and a half because historically, never in the 55 year history of football has a game ever landed on two or one. Again, in the entire history of the Super Bowl, if you've bet either team minus two and a half, you've won that bet because

it's never, ever, ever landed on two or one. I don't know why. That is weird. It's a weird stat. But someone told me that very early on. They're like, you can take advantage of this because instead of taking Bengals money line, you know, plus 150 or plus 160, you take the minus two and a half, it's plus 200. So this is what year of three of us doing a Super Bowl, Chad, we're two and oh in Super Bowls. That means if we've done this every year, again, we had better odds doing it. But if we do this every year, you'd be up plus 400, plus 500 doing it. This is one of those where it's like, yeah, eventually it's not going to work out. A game is going to land on two or like the adjusted line won't come through,

but it just keeps happening. Like that, the best one that stands up to me is that Chiefs 49ers game. Do you remember that game, Chiefs 49ers? Very clearly. They're down by 10 points this Chief's team, right? They were favored in this game. I took the adjusted line of minus six and a half. They are down 10 points in the fourth quarter.

What odds do you give me a covering that minus six and a half, Chad? Plus a thousand. Yeah, if not higher. It's not going to happen. Fluky shit happened. It did not make sense, but that's the Super Bowl. They score a touchdown. They score another touchdown.

They're trying to run the clock out, a busted tackle. Williams takes it down the sideline, scores another touchdown. Again, did I bet on them scoring 21 in the fourth quarter? No. But we've just seen the Super Bowl. Weird things happen where these adjusted lines, that's how you can make good value off it. So I know during the season I bet differently, like I don't bet these kind of lines. For the Super Bowl, it's a very unique game.

This is something I try to take advantage. of every year. And it's really served me well. So if you do think that Bengals are going to out right, it's scary. I get it. But historically, we've never seen a game land on one or two in the Super Bowl. Take the minus two and a half. The game usually lands on three or four. Like, those are key numbers in the Super Bowl. So I will take issue with one thing you said, which is, yeah, Joe Mixing is better at running back. Offensively, I would, I think there's no difference. Like, I think Joe Burrow is great. I think Matthew Stafford is great. The degree of difference between them is minimal. I think receiving Jamar Chase cancels out Cooper Cup. Obviously,

Odell is better as a number two than Tyler Boyd and T. Higgins. But I think Tyler Boyd and T. Higgins together are better as a trio than the top three receivers that the Rams have. The real difference for the Rams is on defense. Like, their defensive line is just so much better than anything the Bengals have defensively for sure, but offensively, like the weakness for the Bengals is their offensive line. And you've got three pro bowl slash all pro caliber talents in Leonard Floyd, Aaron Donald, and Von Miller. That to me is the only reason why people could be favoring the Rams. But to me, that's not worth more than four points with everything else being equal or in the bangles favor. I feel even better about this game now when I think about it roster by roster.

Yeah. I mean, that's all fair. Like, maybe I left out safety. Safety would probably go towards Sinci. They are way more healthy that safety position than the Rams are. I think the Joe Burrow hype train, you're just being sucked in like everyone else. It's like, I went back and watched all the film. The kid made plays. Okay, I'll give them that. He's made plays in every game he's played this playoffs. But people that are like, dude, this guy's top five. Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes, who's smarter, who would you rather have? It's like, holy shit, dude, what are we doing here? But yeah, Joe's hot right now.

So, like, I'm not going to be too hard on them, but I would still take Stafford over him. That's, to me, it's still an advantage. But the Joe Burrow factor is why I'm betting this Bengals team. And now a word from Fandual Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of Super Bowl 56 to celebrate. New customers can bet $5 to win $2,000, $80 in cash on either team to win when you use promo code favorites when registering.

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Call 1-800 next step or... Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but in cursions. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

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this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack.

So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tons-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the I-heart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Text.

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I'm Daniel Jeremiah, and I'll be at the super exclusive IHeart radio set on Radio Row along with my partner, Bucke Brooks, to get listeners as close to the game as possible. We will uncover how the L.A. Rams and the Cincinnati Bengals were built and which team is most likely to lift the Lombard. We've got the best set on Radio Row, more access than anyone, and the analysis you can only get

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first half. I like the value on the Rams first half. It's up to minus three now for Rams first half. Hopefully you can shop around finding a minus two and a half. But when I'm just looking on paper, it's like, okay, McVeigh choked. Like, we did a show with Chris, Raybon. He talked about McVeigh. He really did choke the last time they played.

Like, he choked. So I can't see him coming out slow in this matchup. I think that they have the veteran team and the Rams that all favorites towards them first half. But full game, I really do love this bang of steam where we're like, you just talk about Chad, like all the matchups, everything like that. The biggest thing is this team, they've been down multiple times this year. Like I went through all their games.

Like that's what I've just mainly been doing is going back watching all their games. It is incredible what Joe Broke can do, man. Like they'll be down big. He'll be at third and 14. third and 13, and he'll just make the play. And, like, again, that's not something you can coach. That's not something you can teach. You're just born with that.

And I was shocked that, like, coming into this, I honestly was not going to bet that much on the Super Bowl. I just didn't feel that confident about either team. But as a week has gone on, as I ran more numbers, and it's like, I look at this Bengals team. You talked about, I feel like four and a half is such a good number. Like, that's such a key number two in these Super Bowls, where we've seen past history, games and a lot of games finished 21, 7.

or just like it's most super bowls are either blowouts or three to four point wins it's like historically you can go through it it's usually these are very key numbers in this this matchup three and four so i'm getting four and a half which to me is a very key number in a super bowl i've had so many people ask me this question uh the action app our world world known app it says like what the public and what the public are betting right like it says how much money and what percentage is being bet right yes that's all sports books, right? Like, you're pulling from every sports book you can get numbers from. Exactly. That's not one place. That's multiple sources. So that's what I mean, people.

Like, we're sometimes we're talking about specific books on our app. That's every book. So, like, people are like, oh, I just saw this one sports books 80% 80% and your guys app saying it's 50-50. Like fix your numbers. It's like, no, that's one sports book. We're the median. So we've seen money and tickets coming in on this Rams team in the app. The number is dropped. like Chad just talked, but the number is gone from four and a half to four. So we're seeing these pros now this week starting to come in and start betting this number. I'd grab that four and a half if you still can. Like, again, I like the Bengals this game.

I think the Bengals are going to win. Well, obviously, you're going to break it all down next week. But when I'm sitting here right now, it's like I completely agree with my going in, my instinct was take the bangles, take the under. Nothing's change. The only thing has changed is like Rams first half. I still like the under first half. Still like the under first quarter. I like the full game under.

And it's one of these where I rarely bet live. If it's zero, zero at the end of the first quarter, I'll take the over, like the live over of that game. Because to me, it's just going to be such jitterous for both these teams. Stafford, this is his first year winning and playing well in the playoffs. Joe Burroughs, I know he's lived up to the moment, but like, just got to think about it. Like this kid's going to be 24, 25 years old walking out into that field,

knowing he's playing for a legacy. like Dan Marino got to the Super Bowl, his rookie year, never got back. And that's like he's going to be hearing that. Stafford's going to be hearing that. It's like one of these things where this is the moment. So I could just see them being very overwhelmed where that's one of my favorite bets right now is taking that first half under. Speaking of unders, you and I talked about this last week. We liked the under at 48 and a half.

We thought it would get steamed down even more. It really hasn't. It's still sitting at 48 and a half taking the under. And if you already took it, I would just wait now because the public should bet the over as we get closer to game time. So we could get lucky. He could get up to 48, I mean 49 and a half, which again is another key number. So I'd just wait. I wouldn't put any more on the 48.5 to me, this will be one of those.

I think it's going to move towards the up just because the public will start betting this week and they usually take overs. I don't think we need to belabor the point, Simon. We like the Bengals plus four. You're betting the first half. Rams minus three. You're betting the Bengals. adjusted line minus two and a half. I've already bet the Bengals plus four.

We're going to wait on the total, see if it gets above, see if it moves a little bit higher before we bet the under again, hoping it ticks up to 49. I mean, we got a full menu. All of a sudden,

for a game that like we weren't so sure about it that we were anxious about last week, we are all in on who day. Again, it was more like last week, it was like, what am I missing here? I don't get why the pros

were bedding the Rams up so much, but I think we know why. Like, they have a little bit of a love affair with this Rams, team. They've had it all year. I don't know. I think they're overlooking this Bengals team a little bit. So we're happy to take the value chat of four and a half and four. We're not missing anything, Simon. We're just fucking right. And we'll find out Sunday.

For Simon Hunter, for Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire, I am Chad Millman. This has been the favorites from the volume podcast network. And one quick note for our listeners, be sure to check out the three and out podcast with John Middlethoff every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, only on the volume podcast network. John is an ex-NFL scout who brings his unique perspective to the volume as he breaks down all the news around the NFL and college football. Whether you're looking for game predictions, coaching searches, the ins and outs of an NFL front office, even an occasional golf tip. John has you covered. Download three and out with John Middleth, only on the volume podcast network. We will be back on Monday to recap the game, see how right we really were.

Thanks to everybody for listening. It has been a phenomenally gratifying, satisfying, successful, fulfilling podcast NFL season. Download us, Apple Podcasts, Spotify. Until Monday, good luck in the Super Bowl. Love you. Calling all partners. Losing weight is better. together with Nutrisystem's partner plan.

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