The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl LVI Top Prop Bets

Episode Date: February 9, 2022

With the greatest spectacle in American sports just a few days away, Chad Millman and professional bettor Simon Hunter of the Action Network welcome their colleagues Chris Raybon and Sean "The Oddsmaker" Koerner to the show. Every week this NFL season, Chris and Sean joined the guys on their live NFL betting show "Convince Me," and this week they're lending their expertise on prop betting and player projections. Together they go through their favorite prop bets for the Super Bowl, including longest catch, longest punt and Super Bowl MVP bets. The guys go as deep as they can on the game script and the juiciest gambling opportunities, and lay out how they each approach betting on the biggest game of the season. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I am Chad Milman. Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, it is Tuesday of Super Bowl Week. Somehow we are getting through the two weeks and we are finally at the point where we can start talking legit. actionable content, me and my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better, Simon Hunter, brother. Chad. I instantly regretted this morning not reading Matt Mitchell's email over the weekend because I had no idea we're doing a live show today.

Nice little live email where it's like, here's the live header. I was like, oh my God, I'm not a fan of these live shows because if we do a podcast, I have a 1% chance of being fired. When we do a live show, it's a 99% chance of me getting fired. Fortunately, look, we are going to do two shows this week, as we've discussed. You and I, we're going to do what we always do on Thursdays. We're going to review the sharp calls that we've been getting about the game, the side, the totals. It'll be a quick show because we've talked a lot about what's happening with the Bengals and the Rams.

Today, we are doing our very own favorites version of Propa Palooza with our convince me colleagues, our own little panel of experts here, Chris Raybon, Sean Curner, there's nobody better, nobody better at player props in the entire world than these two guys. I had true glory. So I'm in L.A. anyone who's a regular viewer or a listener of the podcast will see that my background is different. I'm in L.A. already. Flew out on Monday morning. I wake up in the morning very early for my flight. I get on the plane. And before I get a in the plane. I see we've downloaded the new Action Network podcast with Raybon and Croner, propa-palooza, pure player props. I had to lay some money down in Beth before I even took

off. I had the pilot hold of the plane just so I can make sure I did it legally while I was in the state of Connecticut. Raybound, Croner's not going to say anything mean about me. I see you shaking your head. The good thing about this is that Simon, you don't have to worry about getting canceled or fired because I'm still the number one person that's more likely to most. likely to get fired and or canceled on the show. So let's see what happens. I'm going to see Ray Bon and Kernan tomorrow night for dinner here in L.A. One of the last times I saw Ray Bonn post work for an event before the pandemic. It was very late at night. We were at a restaurant. He yelled things that nobody should be yelling in public and then passed out of the table. Literally put his head down on the table,

passed out, I think like in the middle of a very, very expensive sort of curated pizza. Sounds about right. On that note, let's get some hot start. Croner, how excited are you for player props Super Bowl week? Super excited. I want the game to start already. It's already, you know, Tuesday, but I just want it to start. I can't wait, you know, six more days. So let's get it rolling. Well, listen, you're a SoCal Native. This is a big deal for you. we're going to get to sort of you guys, all three are you, you're best player props. We can do a little mini convince me. I'm excited to see what you guys say so I can decide which one of these are the best ones. But before we get to that, there's literally hundreds and hundreds of player props. And the way this market has grown over the past 15 years, even, but really accelerated the past five years. It used to be bookmakers are taken a week to get out three or 400 player props that they're printing on sheets that everybody,

better has to go get at the book if they want to bet these player props. Now they're coming out within 48 hours and they're everywhere. So before we get to the players, like, Kroner, I want to start with you. What markets have you seen that you immediately thought, okay, there's an opportunity? So, I mean, first off, I look at every single market and I try to come up with the way to project whatever that market is. And I have two non-player props that I think are winners. And the first one's a field goal prop and it's the shortest field goal made over 27 and a half yards. So, you know, obviously if either kicker gets a field goal attempt inside 25, inside 27 yards, this prop is toast.

So I looked at, you know, the season long data and 12.5% of Evan McPherson and Matt Gay's attempts have been inside the 27 yard line. I would put this around, you know, a 60% chance of hitting that, you know, if there is a single made, there's going to be, there's not going to be a, field goal within 27 half yards. And let me just say that double check with your book. This prop should be voided if there's no field goal made. So that's part of my calculation is if there's at least one field goal made, there's a 60% chance that we're not going to see one under 27 half yards. So I love that one. And the other one that I like that I would never bet on like any other Super Bowl

is which team will call the first time out. And I think in this case, the Rams should be the clear favorite. Anytime you watch a Rams game, it's pretty clear that Sean McVeigh doesn't really care for timeouts. He just uses them like they're going out of style. So one guy, Michael Lopez, did an in-depth analysis on, you know, coaches and their use of timeouts. And Sean McVeigh led the league with 2.9 unnecessary timeouts per game. And I can't think of a more unnecessary timeout, typically, than the first timeout. I went back and I was going to just see, you know, how the Rams have called timeouts the past few games. And I went back and I saw it. They have called the first timeout in nine straight games. So that's enough for me to take what's typically a pickum.

You could get Rams probably minus $1.15 at most books. So that's my other favorite non-player prop. All right. I have so many follow-up questions for you, but they're not about the actual props. They're about process. So let me get to Raybon. Kroner just gave us first timeout called shortest field goal 27 and a half yards, bet it or don't bet it. What is your non-player prop market? that you looked at and thought, I got to get after it. So I'm looking at what's going to happen early in a game. And I know people, especially people betting props that don't bet props often, probably are going to love these kind of things because you get your action decided pretty

quickly early on. So the first thing I'm looking at is the first play of the game. Will it be a pass attempt or a rush attempt? And I love pass attempt at plus 118. Now, you might look at the Rams and say, okay, you know, they only pass about 40% at a time on their first play. but the Bengals have passed on their first play 16 of 20 times this year. So that's 80%.

So you average those two out. You get about 60%. And you're getting first play the game as a pass at plus 118. And also the Rams have been known to pass early on their first play against the tougher run defenses. So teams like San Francisco don't pass. And the Bengals actually do have a better run defense than they have a pass defense. So I think the Rams are true odds are better than 40% as well.

So I think it's at least 50-50 that the first play of the game is going to be a pass. And you're getting plus 122. So I would take this at anything even money or better. Then the next one, no points in the first six minutes at minus 122. I love that. Historically, Super Bowl first quarters have been very low score. And teams are trying to feel each other out early on in the game, not trying to do anything too crazy. So I went back and looked at both of these teams.

Cincinnati scored in the first six minutes 20% of the time this year. And so did the Rams. Cincinnati allowed a score in the first six minutes, 25% of the time. The Rams allowed one 15% of the time. So about an 80% chance for each team, you do some math. So to combine it for both teams, you get about a 64% chance that neither team should score in the first six minutes. That's about minus 170. The odds are minus 122 at Fandul. Again, I think you have some great value there. And the final one is the first quarter under. Under 10, you can get at Fandul, nine and a half, of some other places. But this season, Cincinnati, 13, 6, and 1 toward the under in the first quarter.

The Rams 14 and 6 toward the under in the first quarter. That is 27, 12, and 1 first quarter unders. And the Super Bowl in general has been very profitable skewing to first quarter unders. So love those three early in the game props. First play the game pass, no points in the first six, and the first quarter under. Do you feel like, A, the first play, of the game being a pass, that is like legit, uncut gems, degenerate style betting. That is how you kick off your Super Bowl, like right away, you've got a winner of loss.

As soon as you do it, it almost makes me too nervous to do it. But for all three of you, Simon, you answer first. Do you feel like books are starting to adjust to a slower than people would normally expect PACE of play, first half, first quarter, because the trends have been for these games to be lower scoring in the first 30 minutes of the game. Honestly, not really. They opened, all the books open probably minus 120. That's second half of the most points.

And now the professionals have bet it. It's up the minus 145, minus 140. So it's one of those that every year they open it up. They're like, we'll let the people decide. And every year, we just bet the second half to have the most points. So Chris, touch on a little bit. With these props, I want people to keep in mind where if you have a really close number, if you already like the under, you usually should bet the under in these props.

If you like the over, you take a bunch of over on the props. It's kind of one of those where it's like, if you're going to bet your props, kind of bet how you think the game's going to go. So I'm right there with Chris. I think it's going to be an under game. I love the first half under. So I'm really liking those bets where I look at this matchup and it's like, we have two quarterbacks their first times in it.

And I know people are going to bring up how the Patriots used to always start slow, even though Tom Brady had been there before. It's just jitters. It feels like any team, they're human. You're in the biggest game. It's like an hour, two hours. You're just sitting there waiting for this game to start. It starts.

And we just see the defense always kind of has an upper hand to start the game. So I love betting these under, especially these first half unders. What were the sort of your non-player prop markets that you were paying attention to? It all depends. I mean, looking at this one, like I know Stucky says he hates betting things before the game starts. I actually love that. It's like, I'm a gambler. Let's get this started. So heads or tails. Like, I'm all into that stuff. I tell people they ask me, should they bet? I say, yeah, throw a couple of bucks on it. You literally are losing money, technically by the value. Like, it should just be

even money. They're charging you minus 110. Like the books know what they're doing. It's free money for the sports books. But it's fun. Like, everyone's sitting there on the TV drinking your beer, betting that. So for more serious, when I love the two-point conversion, every year it's at a plus number. We've just seen the last, especially the last 20 years with these coaches have kind of updated their playbooks. If a team gets down double digits in the Super Bowl historically, the two point hits at 80% clip. So that means if either team gets up by two touchdowns, we're going to be cash in this bet. Last year didn't work out for us with the chiefs. The chiefs just couldn't score a touchdown. So it's mainly you need the team

chasing to get the two pointers and it didn't work out for us last year. Makes me love it even more this year. It's a good number too. I'm saying, at plus 135 at certain books. I think it's plus 120 at Fandoul. Raybon and Curner, you both mentioned heavily researched props, you know,

mentioning digging in, Raybon, the number of times the Bengals and the Rams have run a pass or a run on the first play of the game. Curner, the number of times these field goal kickers have kicked something under 27 yards.

and very specific numbers. And then, Kroner, you mentioned you basically want to bet every market that is available, hundreds and hundreds of prop markets available. How much time does this take you? How are you doing this so quickly? Oh, I'm not. It takes me two weeks. So I'm glad that we have a two-week ramp up for the Super Bowl.

And, you know, I'm running simulators. I'm doing all these things. And I made a good point. You know, when I start making these prop bets, I kind of want them all to correlate. too. So, you know, like if I start having, you know, portfolio of five to six player props, like, going forward, I kind of want all my bets to kind of like line up with the narrative that they're, you know, describing. So like I meticulously usually end up with about 10 to 15 props. You said I try, you know, I want to bet every market. That's true. But I only end up on about 10 to 15,

you know, prop bets. Raybon, what about you? The research I would be doing for the entire slate. on a normal NFL week, which is, you know, 16 games usually. Because, you know, I write up the big column about each game. I just kind of put that into the different prop market. So when I first start, I just kind of look at all of the markets. And I kind of hone in on the ones that I can actually do some research that I think, hey, you know, I understand how the books, or I try to understand how the books put out their initial number.

And if I see something like, you know, first play of the game, they're not going to spend too much time on that. But a lot of people are going to bet it. So I'm going to go back and actually say, you know what? I would never look at this. for a normal NFL week. You probably wouldn't even get that available, but now I can actually dig into the data and get the exact numbers

and see how close they are to the odds. So I just kind of treat every different market like an individual NFL game. But how much of this is chicken in the egg? And what I mean by that is Kerner or Raybon. Kern, you're running a simulator. Raybon, you're thinking, okay, that's a prop that could be interesting to me.

Are you looking in some kind of spreadsheet that you have that says, hey, there could be a little bit of an edge here? Or is it just, I test, I want to see something that's interesting, and that's when I'm going to spend my time researching. Raybyn, you first. I do it that way. I just kind of look at the entire market because I'm, the odds in my head, like I can kind of ballpark where they should be for each market. So it's kind of just like I would kind of on a normal prop market. Like, you know, I'll just kind of look over that, you know, and then kind of say, okay, here's what I want to check and kind of do more.

more research on because in my head, these odds don't quite match up, or there might be an edge here, or there just might be some specific information here that gives me the best number if I don't know that. Sometimes I don't even know what the number should be, but I know I could do the research to find out. And I know the books didn't put that much time in it. But yeah, I'm just kind of looking over the markets, because you do have to prioritize your time. I mean, there are like hundreds of markets, as you said. So that's why we're kind of here. You know, we're going to do it in categories, like our favorite nonplayer props, our favorite player props. I do it the same way. I kind of bundle it into categories and then go from there.

What I like is Raybon is always trying to give people markers. He, like, you know, you think he's just going to be the drunk guy at the end of the night who's yelling crazy things. But the truth is he's looking for structure. Kerner, are you using your simulators to help you define which bets you want to do more research on? Absolutely. And similar to Rayvon, you know, I am combing through just saying like real quick which one stand out to me. But I do rely on my simulator to kind of find value. And then I can narrow down which props, you know, I'm going to be on.

And for example, like a Cooper Cup prop, I wanted to be over. And I knew I had to lock that in immediately because a market like that, you figure everyone's going to be betting on is over. Whereas other markets, I feel like, you know, the odds are going to go up and I'll get a better number later in the week. So I think it all comes down to timing, as with everything betting related. But, you know, I try to time when I think I can get the best number two. That's part of my process as well. there is one more non-player prop that I want to get to. I'm going to start with Simon. I'm going to end with Raybon, because I know this is something that he loves to do research on. I would say the two props that people will be most interested in are what color is the gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach and national anthem. We will never get a better. story about Gatorade than Drew Franklin, who is from Kentucky and works in a lot of radio there,

told a great story on our podcast, which was Jared Lorenzen, who was forever the sort of beloved former quarterback at Kentucky, 300-pound guy who played quarterback in the NFL as a backup for the Giants when they played the Patriots in the Super Bowl the first time. He was on the sideline before the game, and he looked in the Gatorade canisters for both the Patriots and the Giants, and then texted all of his buddies back in Kentucky and told them what color Gatorade was in each container. So that way, they could bet what color Gatorade was going to be dumped on the winning coach based on whoever they thought they was going to win the game. So if the friends thought that the Patriots are going to win, they could bet that color. If they thought

the Giants were going to win, they could bet that color. If they thought the Giants were going to win, they could bet that color. That is the greatest tip, the greatest Gatorade betting story you could ever possibly have. Simon, do you have an opinion on the other prop

that everyone is going to talk about which is the national anthem? So do you have thoughts in the national anthem? How do you bet the national anthem? Will you be betting the national anthem this year? I mean,

I try to cheat like everyone else. Like last year we had a guy leak early video of her singing the national anthem and everyone was able to get the under and they dropped it like 20 seconds down after that clip on viral of her singing. So that's one of those where it's like, honestly, I'm not on social media enough to do that, but other people are.

So I'm just waiting on text. Like as soon as that comes out, whenever she does her practice run, that's when you just hit all these books for the under or the over, depending on how long the time she gets time for. So that's one of those where people have to be on Twitter this week if you want to catch that because someone's going to put it up. Someone in media will put up how long they sing for. And that's a great advantage. Like, again, that's how you use social media to your advantage.

The person singing the national anthem this year is a singer named Mickey Guyton. I guarantee, I don't know who it is. She's a country singer. I guarantee at some point international recording artist, Mickey Guyton. That's how they introduce anybody that the entire world might not know, is they will say international recording artist. If I can get a prop on that, I would bet on that. Kerner, do you have any thoughts in the national anthem?

No, I spend so much time handicapping the actual game. I'm similar to Simon. I just wait for inside info or something to go off of. But no, like, and I'm not saying, you know, I'm not degenerate about it. I'm max betting punter props. So it just, it has to be involving the actual football game for me to, like, be relying at anything internally. Raybon, he's kind of coming after you.

how's he coming after me? Because I know you are max betting. Oh, yeah. Well, I mean, you got a max bet props. I mean, what are we doing here? We got to max bet anything you bet. Prop wise, I feel like. That's just how it goes.

But yeah, I do look at the numbers for this. I mean, the individual singer, it's tough because it's such a different stage, you know, in a Super Bowl. So I don't, but and if that, if that does come out where they say, okay, we've seen the rehearsals, obviously you update. But when I start out, I just look at. at the times of each singer, you know, going back, you know, in the Super Bowl. And, you know, the line that I've seen is somewhere between like, somewhere in the minute and a half range

for the, for the Anthem to go over or under. And if you just look back at the last 14 Super Bowls, it's been over a minute and a half each time. So it hasn't gone for a minute and a half or less since Billy Joel in Super Bowl 41 was a minute 30. Exactly. Last year it was 217, the year before it was 149, 201, 152, 204, 222, 204, 203, 236. Now, some of these numbers went under because the lines were higher. But from the initial line, I just feel like the books opened it pretty low at a minute at a half. I mean, you're talking about nothing since, you know, 15 years ago that's been that short. So unless they're trying to shorten it and there's something we don't know,

I'm going to bang the over and then just adjust if we get different information. But right now, I love the over. I think there's like 20 seconds of value on the over. You know what? I appreciate you taking your job professionally, unlike Simon and Croner, who aren't paying attention to what one of the biggest opportunities in the market might be. Simon, if you were to give me your favorite,

player props right now that you are smashing, we'll smash, hoping to smash if the market moves a little bit, what are they? Yeah, and when I look at these kind of player props, like I do have a system for it, but nowhere near as extensive as Sean and Chris are. Like I'm definitely more of a spreads and totals kind of guy, but the Super Bowl is where you can really get great value on the player props. And it's like the rare instance where I bet more on props than I do. even on the game just because that's where you're going to find the value. So the biggest one that jumped out to me are how many people love T. Higgins. So when I saw his number, it's gone up for sure.

But the rationale is probably just Ramsey's going to shadow chase. So that's why you're going to get a good number with T. Higgs. And when you're looking at this style, that's, that is a really good price for him. He's right now he's at 69.5 on Fandle. That's a good number. For him, his athleticism, what we think this game is going to, go, I could easily see him reaching that number, especially where he's got to step up. He's not going to get in Ramsey.

That's a big moment for him. My other favorite one's another number two receiver. It's O'Dell Beckham. He's been really good to me these playoffs. I've just been betting his over props. I've been betting him to score touchdowns. He keeps delivering. So I look at this offense, we already know what Cooper Cup's going to do.

Like he's going to probably end up putting up 100. They're going to shadow the whole defense to him. Eventually they'll adjust and just have him double box or triple box. Like they're just going to make it so if they're going to give up a catch to Cooper Cup, it's only going to go for 10, 15 yards, where Odell, we've seen them get open. We've seen them make these big plays and these playoffs. So I love that number. I think it's really short.

Seeing it at 61.5 right now in Fandulul. Raybon and Kroner, I know in the prop of Palluzapod, before we get to your player props, you guys spent a ton of time talking about T. Higgins as MVP. Kroner, you first, give me your thoughts on T. Higgins as MVP or any other MVP candidates that we should be thinking about. Yeah, so that's actually my favorite long shot is T. Higgins, 60 to 1 to win the Super Bowl MVP. If you look at the past 20 Super Bowls, four receivers have won it. And this Super Bowl has some really good receivers in it. So I think that, you know, looking at Cooper Cup, O'L. L. Beckham, Jamar Chase, T. Higgins,

I think that's sort of the sweet spot when it comes to value betting on the MVP. And both, I should mention, both starting tight ends are dealing with sprained MCLs. So they'll probably suit up, but they're going to be limited and they could be decoy. So that boosts these wide receivers value even more, in my opinion. I just think T. Higgins is the guy where, you know, as I mentioned it, the Rams will put extra resources in slowing down Jamar Chase and the Rams play a ton of zone. And we've seen this season that T. Higgins tends to thrive against zone coverage. So I think this is all setting up for T. Higgins to have a, you know, potential big enough game to win MVP.

But Higgins is a guy I think has been undervalued all season long. So I'm like going to cash in with a 60 to one long shot on him to win MVP. Ray Bon, you feel the same way about Higgins? You have any thoughts on Super Bowl MVP? I love it. We had our Super Bowl odds draft at the Action Network. And I actually grabbed Higgins. And for people out there that have followed us for a while, you may remember, I think,

it was my first year at action in our odds draft. I took Julian Edelman as like a 20 to one long shot to win Super Bowl MVP. Oh, and what happened? He won it against who? Shaw McVeigh's Ram. So without a touchdown. And I think that's the key is that for the Bengals to win this game, you know, yes, they could get in a shootout, but I think the more likely kind of outcome is that they figure out some crazy second half adjustments and they're able to kind of do what they did to Kansas City and slow down the Rams in the second half and maybe win a lower scoring game. So I think that puts it to where if Chase is getting, you know, do it having a normal game, but not crazy, not a monster like 200-yard game.

That means Burrow may not be having a monster game because Chase and Burrow have been pretty much perfectly correlated with their monster games. But Higgins could still go for like 100 yards. Even if he doesn't get a touchdown, there's a precedent for a wide receiver winning against these very Rams with 100 plus yards, no touchdown. in the Super Bowl. So I love Higgins. I think Jaywin Ramsey is pretty interesting at 80 to 1 if you like the Rams and Leonard Floyd at 150 to 1 because I mean, Floyd on that front, you're going to be checking Von Miller. You're going to be checking Donald. I think Floyd's that guy that could get

single blocked a lot and cause some havoc. So if you like the Rams, those two guys, if you like the Bengals, I think it's Higgins and maybe even a little bit, maybe a couple dollars on some Evan McPherson. We've never seen a kick or win, but, you know, the Bengals could win like a 15. to 12 game, 15 to 10, something like that. If McPherson hits like five field goals, two or three from 50 plus, I mean, you got to give it to them. Hopefully none of them are within 27 yards, though. Right, yeah, just all long field goes.

Only 50 yards plus. Yes. That's all we're looking for. The first will come in the first half after Sean McVeigh burns the timeout. Yes, I love it. To freeze them. All right, so we talked about T. Higgins. Simon's going to hit his over.

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Yep, that's me, Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

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Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picket here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you're not. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed correct. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite. favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations

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So, you know, I have a ton, but let me focus on my top two. And the first one I already mentioned it is Cooper Cup, Longest Reception, over 28 and a half, yards. This is one of the first props I locked in because like I mentioned, I was surprised to find value on a Cooper Cup over, honestly, because we know books are probably taking a ton of action on the over. So I wanted to get on this quick. A lot of books have moved it up to 29 and a half. Some have moved up over 30. But look out for 28 and a half out there because I have him going over the 64% of the time. Based on his season of date game logs, he's actually gone over the 75% of the time. So I'm being fairly conservative with my 64% estimate.

But even at, you know, 29 and a half, I still have him clearing this at 61%. This line should be closer to 33.5. So love Cooper Cup, longest exception, over 28 and a half yards. And then, you know, it's the Super Bowl. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Let me follow up there. You say it should be closer to 33 and a half. Yep. You wanted a 28 and a half.

I got it yesterday, 28 and a half minus, I think, 130 maybe. And that's when I was listening to the podcast within two hours. I was listening to your and Raybond Action Network, Propapalooza podcast, within two hours of it being posted. Is that 29 and a half, some places at 30? How high would you go? What's the ceiling on what you would bet on this? I would probably bet up to 30 and a half. that's when the wind probability is going to drop to about 58%.

So every yard is going to dock about 3%. So just think of it that way. So usually 58% is my threshold. And that's 30 and a half. So I would bet it up to 30 and a half. Got it. All right. See, there you go.

That's an important calculation right there. All right. What was number two? I'm sorry to interrupt you. So yeah. So it's, sorry, I'm excited for these punter props, but it's the Super Bowl. This is the only game all season.

We get offered punter props. So I have to attack these. And I did find really good value again this year. And that's Kevin Huber, his longest punt, to be over 52 and half yards. And my simulator has him clearing this 62% of the time. He's cleared this in 13 of 20 games this year. That's a 65% overrate. So this line should be closer to 54.5.

And this is a market where every single yard matters. So at 53 and a half yards, he's still getting hit it about 58% of the time. So I would only bet it up to 53 and a half. But it's going to be right around 54, 55. If I had to guess, his longest punt will probably be 55 yards exactly. So I love taking these props and love his longest punt to be over 52 and a half yards. When you saw the markets come out, were punter props the first thing that you look for? Yeah, and they weren't up yet.

But that was absolutely the first thing I looked for because like I said, this is the only game all season that we're even. offer these. And typically, you know, I can find one or two, you know, where I think there's this over 60% chance to hit. And it just gives you incentive to literally watch every single play of the game. Because usually when teams punting, that's when you get another beer or snacks. But no, I'm sitting there sweating punter props. So it's when you refill your green tea. No, beer. Maybe for you. Raybon. He only, Croner only gave me two. favorite player props. So I'm going to give him a little bit of a break. I'm going to come to you for your favorite player props. And then I'm going to go back to Kroner because I feel like two isn't

enough. All right, cool. So I'll give you my favorite two as well. Let's start it off with Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing yards. So this is just straight recency bias prop. He's been over five and a half in all three postseason games. And so everyone's looking at it and they're saying, okay, we got to bump this number up at the books. But in reality, this is a terrible number. Matthew Stafford has been under five and a half in 13 of 20 games or 65%. His median is 0.5 rushing yards, which means he goes over 50% of the time.

He goes under half a rushing yard 50% of the time. All 13 of those games where he's had under 5.5, he's had two or fewer rushing yards. So it's just been kind of an anomaly these last couple of games. he scrambled or something like that. He scrambled in under half his games, by the way. And you look at the Bengals, they're not a team that gives up a ton of rushing numbers to quarterbacks because they like to play a lot of zone. We saw them even drop eight in the second half against Mahomes, most of the second half.

So the Bengals gave up the 10th fewest rushing yards during the regular season. Over 50% of those rushing yards to quarterbacks came from two quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Over 50% of all of the rushing yards to quarterbacks that the Bengals gave up, Matthew Staff for two or less than 65% of his games. This is a terrible number at 5.5. I jumped on that very early. So I think you got to take that.

And my second favorite one is Samajai P.Rine under 14 and a half combined rushing and receiving yards. So P. Ryan, before going over last week on that long screen touchdown, he'd been under this number in five straight games. He's likely going to need three touch opportunities to get there because he averages under four yards of carry, about seven yards per catch. So he's had just one more than one touch just once in the three postseason games. He really hasn't been a big factor. And now we're talking about the Super Bowl. He'd be lucky to get multiple touches in this game. And even if he catches multiple passes, which is unlikely because his receptions prop is one and a half,

you know, he would probably still need a third touch to go over that. And his most likely outcome is probably one touch. So I think this number is way too high and just big, again, based on. on a recency bias of him scoring that long screen pass touchdown that kind of, you know, inflated his average, but we're looking for the median here. And I think his median is actually in the single digits in terms of his scrimmage yards. So Samaday, P. Ryan, under 14 and a half rushing and receiving and Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing. I thought you said something really interesting in the podcast that you and Kroner did. Again, go check it out,

Action Network podcast, Propa Paloza. You talked about how the Bengals game plan might only have one great play for him in there, and they might have used it already. Yeah. So if you watch the AFC championship game, you notice Piron got that screen pass touchdown, which was well designed. Didn't mean for it to go for a touchdown, honestly. It was more like one of those plays that you're hoping gets you, you know, a good chunk.

But he took it all the way. And then he had another play that actually could have gone for a touchdown, but he ran the wrong route. And so that was later. So, you know, before that, again, he had done nothing for five games straight. So they used, like, they had these two plays drawn up for him to kind of catch the Chiefs off guard. You know, because when Mixing comes out, it's usually, okay, we don't have to worry about whoever's in the backfield. We got to worry about Chase and Higgins and Boyd and Uzoma. So it's like they kind of threw everything they had in terms of the Somaget-P-Rine tank out.

in that Chiefs game. I wouldn't be surprised if this dude, like he's liable not to play a snap in this game. All right. In the spirit of convince me, which is the show that the three of us do, Sunday mornings 11 a.m. Eastern at Action Network HQ. That is the place where everybody who's been listening to the favorites,

knows you can get our thoughts and insights on lines as they are changing in real time. That's where everything's up to the minute. On that show, each of you is usually tasked with having to convince me of what bet I'm going to take, whether it's a side, a total player prop, whatever. You've kind of convinced me of everything. I've already bet Samaji P. Ryan. I bet him under 14 and a half because that was available.

I already bet Cooper Cup over 28 and a half. I already bet Kevin Huber over 52.5 longest punt. I'm going to bet T. Higgins over 6.5. I'll probably bet him MVP. Simon on the show. Ray Bonn's M.O. all season has been, I'm going to name the ugliest prop I can name to try to get Chad to bet it. He just named Matthew Stafford under five and a half, Samaji Pryne, under 14, under 15 and

a half total rushing and receiving yards. As a professional better, you hear something like Matthew Stafford, under five and a half yards. To me, that just feels so, I know what Raybon is saying about the value and the odds. That's one broken play in a game where everything can go haywire every second because everyone's nerves are so afraid. Yeah. But Chris is coming from it from a volume better standpoint where it's like, if he loses this one on the prop, he'll get it back down the road just because it eventually evens out. So that, that to me is scary as hell of it. Like you just said, he just has one broken play. He takes it 20 yards.

You're just like, all right, I just need a couple big sacks and that's over. But I like it just because he's taking advantage of what he just talked about. The public is betting that number up because Stafford's been running the ball last couple of weeks. So to me, he's playing that smart. He's getting a good value on a good number. Let me just mention, too, the Rams are the favorite in his game. I'm not saying that, like, they're the best value on the spread, but they're the favorite in this game.

So Matthew Stafford could get like a six, seven-yard scramm, three nail downs negates that. Right. And that's what I was going to say. Like famously, Patrick Mahomes a couple of years ago, his, his rushing prop was like 29 and a half or something like that. Krooner, I don't know if we remember the exact number. I had, yeah, I had Patrick Mahomes under 29.5 rushny yards. And he had it, he was about like 40.

Yeah, he was over four. I think he was at 40. So he had three kneel downs that equated to like minus 15 yards because he was trying to run the clock as well. So he ran backwards and kneeled down for like minus 10 yards of the clip. It was the most amazing win I've ever had. It honestly was one of the best wins. I had it too. And I kept watching. I'm like, am I winning this right now? Kerner, I'm giving you one last chance to give me one smash it right now player prop. Oh, man. So I have a few rushing props, but this one I love. It's Jamar Chase. We'll have more rushing yards than Cooper Cup.

It was minus 140, but it's already been bed up to minus 160. I think it should be closer to minus 230. But, you know, the Bengals have been giving Chase rush attempts in each of their three playoff games. It makes sense. You know, if they're struggling to get him the ball, they get the ball in his hand. So they have some design rush attempts. Whereas Cooper Cup, I mean, it's easy enough for him to get targets.

Like he gets enough targets and receptions of the game. They don't really give him design carries. So Cup only has two rush attempts all season that went for two yards or more. Whereas Chase has seven and four of those have come in the plot. playoffs. So there's a chance neither one gets rush temp and this this bets avoid. But I have this being closer to 70% chance. So like I said, this should be closer to, you know, minus 230. So I love the value we're getting at minus 160 here. All right. We got Jamar Chase more rushing yards than Cooper. We've got Kevin Cuber over 52 and a half for max, punting yards. We've got Cooper

Cup over 28 and a half for longest reception. We've got Samaji P. Rine under 15 and a half receiving and rushing yards. Matthew Stafford under five and a half rushing yards. We've got T. Higgins over 69 and a half receiving yards. We've got a lot of T. Higgins for Longshot MVP. We've got so many field goal. We've got so much for the first play. We've got so much for the first play. We've got so much for the unders in the first half, first six minutes, first quarter. I want to hear their best long shots. I'll go first for my long shot. It goes against Chris a little bit, but not really.

It's my guy, Stafford, two touchdowns, 100 to 1. He's had two rushing touchdowns these playoffs. The last game, he didn't get there. He was close, but he did not get there. I had a friend sending an article that was very interesting about when they traded for Odell, back-to-back Friday practices, they ran their own version of a Philly special with Odell passing the ball to Stafford. they have not used to play all season.

This is when you bust those plays out. So if I can get Stafford, give me some QB sneak and, you know, first second quarter, then they run a little Philly Special, gave me that second touchdown. 101 chat? I mean, I'll throw a grand to win 100K, and I'll be damn happy if I ever hit. So that's my favorite long shot. Like, what the hell, 101 kind of bet. What do you guys think?

I love the inside Philly Special. I mean, that's when you, like, this is the last game of the year. and teams kind of saved their best plays for this moment. And it's Sean McVeigh, too, right? So last time the Rams went to the Super Bowl, they scored how many points? Three? Three?

I think he's going to pull everything out the bad that he has. Croner, any last long shot that we should be thinking about? Like I said, my long shot is T. Higgins, 60 to 1 to win Super Bowl MVP. That's what I'm going with for my long shot. All right. Guys, we have officially covered it all. This has been the favorite podcast, the prop spectacular from the volume podcast network.

I am Chad Milman for Chris Raybon, for Sean Curner. Make sure you listen to their 122 minute propapalooza podcast on the Action Network. And one quick note for our listeners, be sure to check out the three and out podcast with John Middlethoff every Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, only on the volume podcast. Podcast Network. John is an ex-NFL scout who brings his unique perspective to the volume as he breaks down all the news around the NFL and college football. Whether you're looking for game predictions, coaching searches, the ins and outs of an NFL front office, even an occasional golf tip. John has you covered. Download three and out with John Middletcloth only on the volume podcast network.

For my BFF, my compatri, my companion, professional better Simon Hunter, we will be back on Thursday talking about the sides, talking about the totals, talking about the sharp calls for the Bengals and the Rams. Don't forget, you can catch the four of us along with Samantha Pravity and Darren Ravel on Convince Me on at Action Network H.Q 11 a.m. Eastern. Great review, subscribe, download from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify podcasts, wherever you get them. Until Thursday, love you. I'm Rhett Lewis. And if you're looking for the real story behind the headlines we got you covered on the NFL Inside Report podcast. Our exclusive NFL insiders bring you comprehensive conversations from the games to the news.

With multiple episodes each week, we're taking you behind the scenes to give you not just the headline, but the how, not just the win, but the why. Make sure you check out our live episodes from Radio Row as we get you set for Super Bowl 56. Listen to NFL Inside Report on the IHeart Radio app on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you guys. get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two.

Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Look Back at it podcast. In 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year,

unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it, with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.