The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl LVII Betting Trends

Episode Date: February 2, 2023

Matthew Freedman of FantasyPros and Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams join the show for a very special look at historical Super Bowl trends and data, and all the unique angles you can use to approach Super Bowl LVII. With a spread holding steady well under a field goal, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter are still gathering as much information as they can in the days leading up to the big game. Freedman and Abrams are happy to oblige, with a fun episode crammed with information you can use to bet smarter next Sunday. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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1-8-8-N-Y or text, Hope NY-467-369 in New York, 1-800-522-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're kicking off the second of our Super Bowl two-week cycle previews. Huge show today. Before we announce our guests, I want to welcome in my BFF, my companion, my compadre,

professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. in. Hello, Chad. How you doing? I'm so good, brother. Listen, for those listening on AMP, we're giving away two new favorites hoodies to two lucky listeners at the end of our show today, courtesy of the volume podcast networks, new merch store,

find lots of cool stuff from the show, all the best shows on the volume. So to our live listeners, be sure to stick around after the show. Also, reminder, I couldn't be more serious, deadly serious about this. If you're listening to us on the herd feed and you like the favorites podcast, go subscribe to the favorites. Click the button. Subscribe to the favorites. Also, a reminder, coming up next week, next week, next Tuesday might be the most important podcast we do before the Super Bowl other than this one and the one we did on Tuesday and maybe the one we do next Thursday.

Chris Raybon and Sean Croner, who are two of the top five most accurate projectionists according to fantasy pros. And that's a reason. I'm reason I'm emphasizing fantasy pros. We're going to talk about Super Bowl props on Tuesday, on Thursday, right before the Super Bowl, our Thursday episode, Best Bet Show with Brandon Anderson. But today, a very special episode with two very special guests. I've mentioned fantasy pros. Joining us today, my former nemesis at Action Network, the man who I am so sad, he's still

not at Action. Matthew Friedman, now the director of content at Fantasy Pros and Betting Pros, the man who is responsible for making sure Raybon and Curner are ranked. And I love that he holds no animosity against these guys as former colleagues of his and he still ranks them so high. That's how credible fantasy pros is. Well, hello, Friedman. I should say hello to you. Hey, Chad. Thanks for showing up on time. It's great to see you. It's great to see Simon too. I don't even know why Simon's here. He is in the bag, in England, across continent. That's some commitment to the contract. The hardest working man here. Chad didn't even ask me about my trip.

You see what I'm dealing with here, Freeman? We've got a selfish boss here in action. Scott is going to ask me how my trip in England's going. He's just right to the picks and the business. Unbelievable. Yeah, I know. It's one of the reasons I left because Chad is so mean, so selfish. And Chad, rest assured, even though we are no longer at the same company, I am still always

your nemesis. It's true. A couple of things you are true. Number one, I don't care about the people. Number two, you're my nemesis. Number three, Freeman's right. I was late because I was having a very important meeting with the, the CEO of Better Collective, the company that bought Action Network, he's in town from Copenhagen.

It ran a little long. I couldn't tell him that I had to go ditch for some podcast with some old Englishman who's half in the bag and some dude who used to work with us. But he would have been sad that I was keeping our next guest, Evan Abrams, waiting. Of course, Evan is the director of research, probably the only beloved person by me at the company. a total genius makes everything we do at action better. And he's a maestro with our BetLabs database. All of this is true.

I listened to him on this morning's episode of my favorite podcast, The Action Network podcast with Raybon and Stucky. Great Q&A episode covering Super Bowl betting data. He gathered so much info. We had to have him on this one as well. It was too much good stuff for just one episode. So he's here to take us through some of the trends and betting nuggets. He has for Super Bowl 57 between the Chiefs and the Eagles.

Evan Abrams, hello. First of all, Chad, someone needs to back you up. Someone needs to say something nice. It's been a bit of a start for you. So I'll be here to say something nice and then probably, you know, Dan, dig you later. But it's okay. We'll start fun. But I'm going to give you some information.

So I'm going to give you three facts that I gave on the tan pod yesterday that I think we should repeat. But let me go through them quickly because you should go back and listen to that episode. First one I'm going to start with is Patrick Mahomes. So this will be the seventh Super Bowl to feature the league leader in regular season passing yards. The previous six lost. The first was Marino in 84. And the other five have all come since 2000.

Brady Manning Brady, Rich Gannon, and Kurt Warner. So we'll see what happens here. Eagles pass rush, best pass defense we've seen in a while. So that's number one. Number two, this game will feature Isaiah Pacheco. This is a rookie running back in the Super Bowl, not something we see every day. Since 2000, five teams have had a rookie running back carry the ball 10 plus times in a Super Bowl. They are five and a no straight up and five and no against a spread.

Yes, very noisy, but a fun stat. Sony Michelle. So much less relevant than the quarterback stat. I know, but listen, I follow our producer Matt Mitchell. This was the first note he gave to me. He said he loved it. So we go with it. First is Sony Michelle.

The fuck does that guy now? Ah, sometimes. Bernard Pierce, James Starks, Joseph Adai, and the great, Jamal Lewis. where this whole rookie running back kind of thing started. Third question, does having experience in a Super Bowl give Mahomes an edge statistically? The answer is pretty much no. Quarterbacks with Super Bowl experience facing one with no experience, 19 and 15 straight up, 16 and 18 against a spread all time.

And even when you look two plus Super Bowl gap, like Mahomes' third Super Bowl versus a quarterback with their first, still only 12 and 8. So, I mean, when you look at experience, kind of throw it out the window. That's really what I say, especially when you take out Brady, still only seven and five. So, eh, move on, find better angles. Before we get into the deeper dive conversation with a lot of these facts and stats and data and anecdote, Simon, you came out pretty strong on Tuesday in favor of the Eagles. The line was a two, was come down.

And I want to give you credit. I want to give you credit right now because your narrative for the game, which you were way ahead of, as the analysis is starting to come out about the offensive line and the defensive line is becoming a pretty strong theme as to why people are favoring the Eagles in the 48 hours since we last spoke

and I hope you're having a wonderful time being drunk in England. Has anything in your mind changed? Are you feeling even stronger about it? What's been happening? A lot more noise now on the homes, right? As the week's going along, I feel like I'm hearing more whispers about the Hertz thing, which I told you.

I'm hoping Hertz was fat on those long throws because he was nervous. He had jitters. If his shoulder is not right, Chad, that's a big, big deal to this Eagles team and that number. So the movement we've seen is that. I think the rumors are swirling, so the number is going to move and the pros are going to come. In our Chief's team that, sure, we don't know if Mahomes is fully healthy. We can say right now we feel more confident about him than you do about Hertz just because Hertz could not put the ball downfield.

I mean, I think you read the last show. You had 125 yards pass. But again, they weren't asking him to do that. The run was working against a 49ers team, which all week, Chad, what did we hear all week? The 49th had the best run defense in football. Guess who's not going to say anything good about the Chief's run defense all week? Anyone that looks at the numbers. Sure, they've shured up some stuff as a season and gone is a long year.

But any team that can dominate the run has dominated the Chiefs on both side of the ball. So it just feels like there's people that are stuck in their ways, right? There's people that they took the Giants, seven and a half, right? They thought they're the smartest people in the room. They weren't. Same people came in last week, took the 49ers, tried to say the public was all over, the Eagles, and they were talking about Eagles out easy. The Eagles were going to win and how they were misreading that 49ers team.

And the same exact score happened. It was a 38 to 7 blowout. So just look at this match with the Chiefs, and it's all it is is Mahomes. You ask anyone, they would say, you take Mahomes away from this Chief's team. They're probably the third best team in their own division. So this Eagles team to me is still the most complete team. The nerves for me right now is just Hertz. I just don't have any info in Hertz.

So I would say to anyone, if this was a normal situation, Hertz was fully healthy and he had thrown for $2.50 in that game. It wasn't even a good $250. If he was just completing passes downfield and I could see him be accurate, I'd feel more confident. Still about the Eagles, I haven't put a penny more since our show because I just am unsure about it, Chad. So I probably saw a tick up a little bit at the over.

I would say me and my group came in pretty heavy on the oversight. we moved it maybe half a point. Another really sharp group came in even heavier on the over. I think they've moved now a full point up to 50 and a half. So I took my position on that at 49.5. I was hoping, I was hoping it would drop even more. It just wasn't going to. So I took that position.

But in the end, it does feel if I get the okay by my guys that are working with the Eagles about Hertz, like it's not going to be no bullshit either. It's going to be real good info. If you see me take the Eagles, that means I feel confident about Hertz. If you just see me not take a large side on the Eagles, if I just make it whatever it is in the app, one unit. That means I'm taking the Eagles, but it's kind of like, fuck. I don't feel great about it.

It's just it's one of those where on Tuesday when you talked me, I was feeling really good. And now it's two days of past. The hurt stuff just makes me nervous because it's a lot of, a lot of whispers about his shoulder. Breedman, have you been thinking about the game very much? Chad, what, are you trying to insult me? That's all I've been thinking about for like four days.

I had projections ready for this game even before we had the final matchup. I think this is going to be a fantastic matchup. I agree with a lot of what Simon said, but I disagree on the way that I'm betting this. I'm on the Chiefs. I do think that, you know, you look at, he's right. It's all Mahomes. You look at 2 through 53 on the roster and the clear advantage is towards the Eagles. The clear advantage that the Chiefs have is that they have Patrick Mahomes and they have Andy Reed.

But if you had to pick just two guys in the organization to determine how is Super Bowl is going to play out, it would be the head coach and the quarterback. And it's not as if the chiefs are horrible at all of their other positions. They're still a top five roster in general. So I have this at one and a half towards the chiefs. The market is around one, one and a half towards the Eagles. Like we're all in that general pickham range. I think the real advantage is probably going to be betting the props,

which of course, as you mentioned, fantastic. show you will have coming up with Sean Corner. I'm still going to mispronounce his name until the end of time. Sean Corner and Chris Rayvon, that'll be great. But yeah, I mean, I'm, I'm on the Chiefs here. I will say, I think that what we have seen in the playoffs out of the Eagles was impressive, but we got to keep in context. It was against a Giants team that has overperformed throughout the season and against a 49ers team that was running out a fourth string quarterback for a significant portion of the game. And then a third string quarterback who couldn't throw.

So I haven't changed my perception of the Eagles all that much in the playoffs. And also I haven't changed my perception of the Chiefs all that much in the playoffs. Yet Patrick Mahomes injured for a significant portion of their first game. Patrick Mahomes still playing, you know, miraculously better than we would have anticipated, given that he was injured the week before. But, you know, injured Patrick Mahomes, injured wide receivers in their second game. And I would say anyone would be lying. to you if they told you that entering the playoffs, with the exception of maybe Simon,

but entering the playoffs that they had the Eagles power rated ahead of the Chiefs. Almost everyone entering the playoffs had the Chiefs as number one, number two, power rated team and the Eagles maybe anywhere from number three to number six. But I don't think we've seen anything to flip the idea of the Eagles deservedly being power rated ahead of the Chiefs. And I can't move from that to the number. that we are seeing in the market right now. I think this number is incorrect in overvaluing the idea of all of the injuries

that we've maybe seen at the wide receiver position for the chiefs. Maybe the idea that Travis Kelsey has the banged up back and won't be playing it anywhere close to 100%. But I think this number in the market is wrong. And that's the value, chat, is it's, Evan just told you, the quarterback literally does not matter. It is he, it is even worse to have the best quarterback in this game, historically. The guy who's been the best all year, historically, that's why I make my money where I had one Eagles and I had two of the 49ers.

That was my power rinkers. Three was the Chiefs, four was the Bengals. So I told you two weeks ago, no matter what, I was probably going to be the NFC. And that for me, that's why just nothing's changed where the only big factor here is the Hertz injury. That's what I'm stick to where I feel like that's the movement right now. The pros were all over this Eagles team for a good reason. The hesitation, the pause, the reason the money has come back to their way is the Hertz thing could be real. That could be a real injury to his shoulder right.

now. So it's definitely interesting here in the other perspective of being a chief backer. This year, the only app you need at your Super Bowl party is Fanduel. America's number one sportsbook. Download Fandual now and use promo code favorites so you can bet Super Bowl 57 with a no sweat first bet. You'll get up to $3,000 back and bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win. Fan Duel lets you bet on everything from the money line to points for as to who will score a touchdown for Super Bowl 57. My favorite bet. is Kansas City plus two and a half because why would you bet against the greatest quarterback in NFL history, all on a top-rated sportsbook app that's safe, secure, and super easy to use.

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789777 or visit cc pg.org slash chat in Connecticut, 1,8009 with it in Indiana, KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 18777-770 stop in Louisiana, 1-8-8-Hop-N-Y or text, Hope NY in New York. Tennessee redline is 1-800-889-9-9-8789, 1-800-5-2-4700 in Wyoming, or visit www.1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, it's interesting for me. I want to get to Evan for a second, but honestly, do I go with my BFF who I put my faith in trust in? Or do I go with a guy who I kind of can't stand?

I don't know what to do here. Evan, you and I spoke Monday morning, I think. I believe so. And the total was at 49 and a half. I was upset because I wanted to bet the under and I missed the 50 or I didn't pull the trigger on the 50. I just sort of watched it. You got the 50. I get on the show on Tuesday and Simon telling me he's betting the over.

Not only that, he's going in big on the over and moved it. I don't know why I still feel good about the under. It doesn't actually play the type for me given the fact that the Eagles sack rate, the Eagles pressure rate, best in the league. their elite against number one receivers. We've got a mediocre offensive line. We've got a, for the chiefs, we've got a wide receiver group that is injured. And so what the Eagles are already great at is focusing on the number one receiver. So now they can double down on that.

Their offensive line is historically great. Their rush game is having an historic season. why am I hearing about the over when this feels like a eagle's ground and pound and the home's not having a heart, not having an easy time staying on the field? I have no idea. I seriously don't. I like the under and I still do. I bet it at a 51 since it hit there recently as well.

I'm just against Simon here. Now, I understand what the theory is behind liking the over. Like my theory is this, chiefs in the over, Eagles in the under. I just think that's the way it'll produce. as the game goes. So like, you know, there's ways to play combined parlayes and things like that. I just feel like that's the approach, whether it's pressure, their past defense, their offensive line. It's just all better units on Philly's side. But the one thing I will say, when it comes to injuries, Simon is also 100% correct. I am 20 times more worried about Hurks than I am a Holmes. We just saw

a home's play. We saw what happened. And he's got two weeks. We heard all that Kelsey News day of, man, absolutely nothing. He had seven catches. He probably should have had eight or nine in the game. So I think from an injury point of view, I am scared to death of Philly. And that's why, listen, I bet it at minus 115. I bet it at minus 120. That's what I got early. But right now, I'm with Simon. I'm not putting another dime on it after all I keep hearing from everyone is that injury.

It's scary. You've been digging into the Betlabs database for trends on the side, trends on the totals, based on tickets, based on money percentages. is what do we know? What can you tell us? So just off the top, which is probably the most fun stat I could offer, that Super Bowl favorites are 36 and 20 straight up, but they're actually 27, 27, and two, an absolute 50% even in Super Bowl history, which is just a fun nugget heading into this game. When you look at overs 26 and 28, pretty much even, the one thing I will say, the underscash in four straight Super Bowls for the first time since 2009 hasn't gone five straight under

since the 70s. So something to look out for depending on the result here. But the one thing I really want to talk about is the BetLabs database and in-game, first half and second halves. Dog, 10, 6 and 2, ATS in the first halves, dog, 10, 7, and 1 in the second half. So when you're talking about like the chiefs in this spot, you're probably getting a little bit extra value if you're getting the half point. Friedman, you fancy yourself a player probably. genius. We've seen the explosion in the prop market going on for a generation almost. But what's interesting is normally before the Super Bowl, those props aren't coming out for at least a week. All of a sudden, this year, props were out Monday. Give me some thoughts on the props that are

tried and true that will always be popular. Start with that. The player props, that's its own. general type of thing, but the team props, those are the ones that are a little more interesting to me and the props that have something to do like, will there be a safety in the Super Bowl or something like that? The props that have larger juice, the type of sports fan who's just coming in and like, hey, what should I bet? I don't, I don't watch football or I watch football, but I don't really like crunch numbers. That person doesn't want to lay a lot of juice. But sometimes there's significant value on laying the juice. You shouldn't put a ton of money on it. But you know, you're very likely to win that bet, like even more than the implied value that you get

with the odds. I think for this game in particular, I would be looking at the number of penalties. Penalties tend to tick down a little bit in the playoffs and especially the Super Bowl. Like the refs just kind of tend to swallow the whistle a little bit more. So there tends to be some value there. And, you know, I'm interested in the passing props that, we will see. You know, with the idea that Jalen Hertz is potentially more injured than what we would see in the practice reports, I think we could see, you know, significant under movement on his passing yardage prop. And it's not as if the Eagles are airing it out a lot anyway. And I mean, they, they have that capacity early in the year, but we haven't seen it recently. So whatever number

you look at now, it will probably be significantly lower a week from now. Simon, if you're anxious about betting the sides and we're still thinking about it. And you're heavy on the total at this, on the over at this point. Have you looked at the sides? Have you, I mean, at the props, have you thought about the props market at this point? Are you going to wait and see what happens next week? Yeah, it took a bunch of positions. But dude, they're like limited to even in person 250. Like the biggest bet, I had a bunch of guys that had a bunch of different books was 250. Most books were 200 or 150 on that Monday. As a week has gone along, they've upped it. I would say some books have upped at 100 bucks to 150 per day.

So I've heard, you know, a couple of guys get $1,000 down today. I think they're all just taking positions on hearsay. It's the same thing of they're taking unders. I mean, they worked for him last week. A lot of really smart guys came in really heavy on Hertz's underpassing, not only because they thought the game script was going to go towards the 49ers, but they had heard some rumors that he'd landed funny on it in one of the tackles in that Giants game.

And that's why they kind of taken him out and took it easy the rest of the second half against the Giants team. that was one of those I was looking for it. I didn't really want to believe it because I felt like there wasn't enough info on it. And in the game, there was just a couple of those throws that, yeah, threw me off a little. But with the over, I made the game 51.5.

That's why I just stayed to it, where it's like, okay, that's what I made the number. The game opened above it, then I moved below it. And that's where I just saw the value where I think most pros and the public are just going to go recency bias. I mean, the chiefs, that's going to be the play for the public. They're going to go the simple of Mahomes as a dog.

I'm going to take my homes, which I can't fault them. It's like that's the easy thing to say and do. And the under is an easy bet because of what have we seen these last couple of weeks? I mean, Evan can tell us we've just had unders. Like me and you've been cashing every week, Chad, since that walk our weekend. We've been hitting these unders pretty big and they've been coming through. So that was another reason I like the over in this position of the public is usually wrong in Super Bowls when the public likes unders. And they're usually wrong when they think they know what the hell is about to happen in games trip wise.

And I'll always remember yelling with my head off. that Eagles over with Nick Foles against that Patriots team. Did I know that was going to be the most yards and points in that Super Bowl history? No, but it was just one of the things where it's like, yeah, I agree. The Eagles had a really good defense in that 2017. That shit don't matter in the playoffs. You have two weeks to prepare. These coaches are going to be smart.

Andy Reed is a really smart coach. Siriani, these blocking schemes, Chad, like watching, going back and watching it, the adjustments they made in the second half. That's why people want to talk shit about the Eagle team. The adjustments they make at half time, run blocking-wise, is literally poetry. If you're indie watching film, like they see, like Nick Bosa was stepping up, and they saw that he was stepping up too much. Like he was literally rushing up the right side.

They would just leave him unblock in the second half. They literally just used him as a decoy, brought the guard around that would block up the middle. You saw back-to-back 14-yard runs by the Eagles offense. Just saw a little adjustment. Guess who doesn't have that good of our run defense compared to the 49ers, the Chiefs team? So that's one of those where I just keep going back to it of, it's going to be the ultimate chess mass. If you're a football nerd,

it's literally a dream of going back and watching this film is going to be amazing because Andy Reid is so smart. A team will make an adjustment in the first half and take something away, and Andy Reid will attack it in the second half. He'll find something from the 1980s that no one else knows because Andy's just old dog

who knows these old plays. And that's why I love, I just love this matchup so much. It's just really, really good coaching on coaching. I agree. Andy Reid probably is the side right now for coaching just because he's been here. Like this is what is third or fourth Super Bowl?

So to me, that's a big deal. That is a huge advantage over Nick Siriani. So that's a lot of stuff I weighed in this total of I don't see either offense taking foot off the gas. Like Mahomes, he will go bite for bite against his Eagles team. Like, again, the Eagles have a good defense. There's a reason they haven't faced a quarterback like Mahomes this year. Mahomes is as good as it gets.

So to me, take away his receivers. I'm hearing whisperers that Juju is actually going to be back and that he's going to be practicing even this week. So to me, I think they're going to have enough pieces. there that Mahomes will put up the points. It's all about can hurt to answer because that's what it's going to come down to. You can't just run it all game. If Mahomes is putting up points, you're going to have to throw the ball.

So that, to me, that's going to be a defining piece of this game. Well, everyone, go ahead, Friedman, go ahead. Simon's point about the over. I'm within there. And I think even if, you know, Juju, some of these other wide receivers don't return, they're not all that big of a part of the offense anyway. And they still have two weeks to be able to plan what they do without those. guys. So like Simon, I'm on the over. Part of the rationale is that, you know, this is,

this is the Mahomes spot. You know, Simon is on the Eagles, but I think Mahomes is going to be able to have more success against a very good secondary here. A great defensive line. He, he think, you know, he probably will be pressured. But I mean, at the same time, I think it is fair to say that I don't hold the strength of schedule thing against the Eagles. Like, they did what they should do against bad opponents. Like they demolished them. So like they still look like a very good team that had a softer strength of schedule. But it is worth pointing out that the quarterbacks who are better than the average that

they face, a number of those guys did do pretty well against the Eagles defense. So it's a good defense. I don't know if it's like a great defense to the extent that we would imagine based on the raw, the raw stats, like all of the sacks. I think that's a little bit inflated. One of the biggest conversations, the points of conversation, coming out of the Chief Spangles, was the officiating. There was a great meme going around after on social with Ron, was it Ron Torborg, was the official,

a picture of him and Mahom's trading jerseys. There was the joke that it's the first time an official has been named MVP. of the AFC title game. Friedman, you mentioned penalties as a prop to play. Referees tend to swallow their whistle in these scenarios. Evan, tell us about Carl Chaffers and what we can expect in the Super Bowl from an officiating point of view. Because everybody knows, anyone who watches convince me, which we will, of course, have on the Super Bowl Sunday. everyone knows, I'm a sucker.

I'm a sucker for the referee stats. So what I'm going to tell you now, you've probably heard before because it's literally been talked about now for a few days and you're going to hear it again on convince me. But Sheffers lead referee in the Super Bowl is 11 and 1 to the under and 12 playoff games. It's going under by 12.9 points per game. Since 2019, he's been the lead official in six playoff games. It's six and O to the under by 14 and a half points per game.

you know, referee, trends, it all sounds really good. I like the under as well, so it even fits my narrative. And in terms of actual penalty calls, yeah, I mean, it fits the narrative. It fits everything we're talking about. But to Friedman's point, I actually did a little bit of research, and usually penalties are down. Like when you look to the average of the year, and then you look to how many penalties actually occurred in the Super Bowl, it usually is less. So to the point, we're going to see it. I think it's going to happen where there's going to be less calls. And I think he's right on that one.

All right. Well, at least people have given us something, right? Now we know that we want to bet the under in total penalties. Have we seen a total penalties prop yet? Have we seen the number? I haven't. Anyone?

I don't believe it's out yet. I would expect it to be around 10 and a half. Okay. I would say, this over underth thing is killing me because as much as I hate Friedman, I think he's really good at this. And I love Simon and he's really good at this. And they're both on the over. But I love Evan. And Evan is on the under. And we can find any trends to fit our narrative. Betlabs, by the way, we did a story yesterday.

Not betlabs, but on our market report, we did a story yesterday that the money was coming in on the over. Could have been Simon for all we know. We're fulfilling a prophecy here. So that one's killing me. We only got a few minutes left because Freeman's got a hard out, you know, very important. Chad, you talked with your CEO. I have a meeting with my CEO right after this is done. We're basically mirror images of each other at this point. It's so true. And it's like a dream come true for me right now that we get to compare ourselves to each other.

Evan, you got a whole boatload of stats that we still have to run through. So what can you tell me? All I'll say is this. We've been talking about the over-under. I just think it's interesting. Looking at action network market data right this second, 55% of tickets are on the under. The unders only received public support three times in the Super Bowl over the last 20 years.

I don't think the under is going to close at 55%, but I think it's interesting that early in the week we're seeing it. And in those three games, there's one and two to the under. It means absolutely nothing. But I think it is interesting that we are seeing public support to the under early in the week. So that's one note I'll give you right now. the other note that I do think is interesting is longest and shortest touchdowns.

Friedman was talking about like game props. The longest touchdown has gone under and six of the last eight. It went over last year for reference. And the shortest touchdown prop has gone under an eight of the last 10, three straight. So like it's usually one and a half yards and we've seen one yard touchdowns in the Super Bowl. So that's one note I think is really interesting that I've bet the last few years.

That's a really tough one. Yeah. And the last one I want to give you is, this one, line movement. I find this fascinating, and I use this strictly in the Betlabs database using one of our filters. Follow line movement in the Super Bowl. Eighteen times in Super Bowl history, the line has moved one and a half points or more. Right now, it's actually moved three and a half points. KC was minus two. Now Philly's minus one and a half. If you follow the direction of the line movement, so minus four to minus six plus six to plus four and a half as examples, you'd be 16 and two

straight up and 14 and 4 against a spread in the Super Bowl. So the line move is usually the right move. So the line moved from Kansas City to Philly. Accurate. Kansas City, the open is the favorite. Some of us, you know, might have bet Philly a plus one and a half on Sunday night. And then minutes later, bet Philly, that gets Kansas City minus plus two and a half.

So we might have canceled our bets out. So the line movement, that's one of the most telling stats I've heard, Evan. is that the line movement tends to tell you which side is not just going to win, but which side is going to cover. 14 and 4 against the spread the last 18? Yeah, well, it's only happened 18 times where it's moved 1.5 points or more. So in those 18 games, 16 and 2, 14 and 4. So one game, everyone's pushing it, everyone's moving it tends to be the right side.

Dude, that is a eureka stat. Friedman is shaking his head. You like that one, right? That's a good one. Evan, before we get out of here, give us one more for the road. All right, Chad. So we'll talk about ATS for a second. The Chiefs entered the playoffs with a 6 and 11 ATS record, 35.3%.

In the 56-year history of the Super Bowl, there are just four teams to have made a Super Bowl with an against-a-spread-win percentage below 40 percent, and the other three all lost the game. Dude! Fly! It's too easy, Chad. It's too easy. Come on. Great, great info by Evan.

And I got to do a plug for Evan who every week puts out this article that is sort of like the primer digging into the trends for every game that's on the slate. A must read piece. I think there are very few people who dig in to that depth and do it really well. And like Evan, you pull out a number of stats where I'm just like, I never would have even thought to look for something like this and you find it. I don't know how you research in that way and then get it all into that document. and do it as quickly as you do. But that feels like one of those types of stats that I would look at in that piece each week

and just be like, man, I wish I had known that before I made this bet. Friedman, first of all, thank you. It'll be live Monday morning at home. And that stat will be right at the top. So that's all I got to say about that. Evan wins the podcast. Matthew Friedman,

I love having you on the podcast. Even if I detest the meaning of your being. I love having you on the podcast. Fantasy pros. Everyone should go check it out. Betting pros. Everyone should go check it out. Matthew Freeman director of content. Simon Hunter, I miss you, buddy. I can't wait for you to come back home. Come back home. You can detox a little bit before the game. Evan Abrams. Fantastic. You nailed it with that last stat. That might make me feel really good about betting the Eagles even more right now. for Matt Mitchell, our producer.

I am Chad Milman. This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Download us from Apple Podcasts from Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Rate, review, subscribe. Listen, no joke, people. I need you to subscribe to the Favorites podcast, not just listen to us in the Herb Feed. Subscribe to the Favorites podcast. It's going to matter for you and your happiness.

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