The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl Prop Bets

Episode Date: February 7, 2023

One of the best ways to celebrate the final game of the NFL season is to take advantage of Super Bowl prop betting markets. These have exploded in popularity in recent years, and now sportsbook operators offer thousands of different prop betting options across just a single game. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome on their colleagues Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner to dive deep into their favorite prop bets for the big game. Chris and Sean both finished the NFL season ranked inside FantasyPros rankings for player projections, and few professionals have met with more player prop success in their careers. So enjoy this conversation covering everything from punts and timeouts to the length of the National Anthem, and everything in between. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. It's NFL playoff time and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandwell. I love betting with Fandwell because their app is safe, secure and easy to use and because they're offering exclusive offers, boosts and more all month long. And when I win with Fanduel, I get paid fast. Plus, Fanduel is now live in Ohio.

So use promo code favorites and download the Fanduel app today to start making every moment more. Must be 21 or older and in select state. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or visit Fanduel.com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia, and Ohio. 1-800-next-step or text next step to 533442 in Arizona, 1-888-78-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7. Orr slash chat in Connecticut. 1-8109 with it in Indiana.

Visit KSgamblinghelp.com in Kansas. 1-877-7-70 stop in Louisiana. visit MD gambling help.org in Maryland, 1-8-8-8-N-Y or text, Hope, NY, 467-369 in New York, 1-800-2-2-470-0 in Wyoming, or visit 1-800 gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Boy, we got a paloosa of a show. We are following up on the brilliant annual best podcast we may do in the entirety of the Action Network podcast universe as envisioned by Matt Mitchell.

It is the Propso-Palooza podcast that Sean Curner and Chris Raybon do every year. They did it early this week. I think it came out. It came out this morning. I feel like it's all blurring in my head. Simon Hunter, professional better. My BFF, my companion, my compadre. Hello, Simon.

Hello, Chad. Good to be back in the States. You're back. You're back from England. Cheerio, my friend. You survived. I think you were drunk for most of the podcast you did last week. Definitely was.

But got my point out there. I think people knew where I was going to be regardless. But the alcohol definitely made me a little more confident than I usually am. But, yeah, firing away last week. You know, on Saturday, I went to the UNC at Duke game at Cameron, top five sporting event, ever been to. Stunning how good it was. I was rooting for Duke because I was there and because why not?

But I bet on North Carolina, they didn't cover it. The spread was three and a half. What the hell, Jack? Didn't care. Because the game was so much fun, I didn't care. Truly astonishing. I was going to say, that's what got me hooked on Duke. That's why I got a Duke push behind me.

Cameron Indoor. I went there, whatever that was. eight or nine years old as a first American sporting event experience and it changed my life. Walking around that campus, we walked around Shashefskyville, everyone's drunk, all the kids are running around. It was 20 degrees outside. Nobody had any clothes on. They didn't care.

You walk around the quads and every garbage can is filled with just liquor bottles that are empty and cases of bud light and wine bottles. And my 16 year old kid is just walking around like, college is the fucking. best. He just like could not get his head around all of it. So we're back. It's a great way to spend the non-football weekend before the Super Bowl. You know what a better way to spend time is? Bring it in Sean Curner. Bring it in Chris Raybon. I feel like I have I've got the Yankees Murderers Row on this podcast right now between the three of you. Crenner, hello? What's up, Chad? Raybon, good to see you, brother.

I've been losing my voice yelling at Sean about all these punter props and stuff a whole week. About how much money we're going to make on them? We'll get through it. We'll get through it. That's the beauty of propapalooza is the punter props are probably Sean Kroner's favorite thing to bet on and we're going to get to it. For the rundown of this show, I want to remind people, if you're listening to us,

follow the favorites in Apple Podcast. It's the best way to get us as quickly as possible. the favorites. Follow us in Spotify, however you get your podcast, follow the favorites. We're going to go over some props. Raybon, when you and Stucky do the Action Network podcast, which I love, your Thursdays, you'll do the six-pack. I've listened to that. You basically focused on props for the six-pack this week. I want us to use a similar theme for the podcast this week. I want each of you to be giving me your favorite props right now. A reminder as we go through this, the beauty of the props or the challenge with props is that prices change. When Raybon does this, when

Kroener does this, when Simon does this, they are all evaluating it based on the price. It could open at minus 110, could shoot up to minus 130, minus 140, minus 150. The variance is in the price, not necessarily in the number itself that's moving as much. So just something to keep in mind. We will ask them to give their sort of floor and their ceiling for what the prices are on these props as well as their floor and ceiling for yardage. But let's just kick it off. Raybon, you go first. Give me your favorite prop for Super Bowl 57.

All right. Well, I'm going straight to penalties. You know, there's been a lot of talk about Carl Chaffer's. They're referee. And I think you've got to go over 10 penalties accepted here. I've seen it at minus 110. If you look at him all times, 78% of the time, he's called 11 or more penalties in the game.

just 15% of the time he's called fewer than 10 in a game. So if you can get the even 10, I think it's a slam dunk. And then even at 10 and a half, I still think there's value there. A little less in the postseason, he goes about 50% over 11 or more, and then about 8% 9 or fewer. But either way, this guy is leaning toward calling a lot of penalties more than calling few penalties. So that's one where I'm giving people to split.

So if the books want to get cute and change the new. number and it goes to, you know, let's say 11 and a half or something, then you still bang the under. So, but I would, I would, I would, I would really bang the over at 10 or 10 and a half for Trevor's penalties. How do you find that? What, what is that under? It depends on the site. It's usually game props or game special, something like that, something with the game,

the entire game. Because I'm looking to bet that right now and I don't even know where to find it. So if I find it, well, I'm looking on Fandole right now. Yeah, Fandle is tough. They got props spread all over. It's so hard. Well, I guess while Krooner is telling me his favorite prop, I'm going to have to go figure out. But Ray Bon, this is like a little episode of convince me.

You know if you're talking about officials and there's a prop on an official. I'm duty-bound to bet it. So give me that one. Kroner, give me your favorite prop. Yeah. So my favorite prop right now is actually for the chiefs to call the first time out. you can get this around minus 105 right now. And it does seem like this would be a market that's similar to the coin toss,

where it's just more of a 50-50 type of bet that just comes down to luck. But that's not the case, especially with this matchup. And last year, if you recall, one of my favorite props was the Rams to call the first timeout. Shaw McVeigh is one of the most wasteful coaches when calling timeouts. So I went and I tracked both these teams, which teams called the first timeout in all their games. and which ones were wasteful. So wasteful timeouts are when the offense or defense has to call timeout due to the play cox about to expire.

They're trying to avoid a delay of game penalty or they don't have the right personnel on the field or for any other reasons. And the Chiefs called the first timeout in 15 of 19 other games. So that's a 79% rate. And 12 of those first timeouts were of the wasteful variety by Andy Reed. So that's a significant trend. And on the other side, Nick Siriani, since he came in the league, he has been one of the best coaches at saving his timeouts.

He really doesn't waste timeouts. So they've been the first team to call timeout in only seven of their 19 games. That's a 37% rate. So I just think Annie Reid is way more likely to be the first coach to call timeout. And it's going to be of the wasteful variety. So I'm projecting this around a 60, 65% chance of the chief. calling the first time out and we can get this like I said at minus 105 so I love the value we're getting on this. I mean, come on. Here's what I love. So you've got another one that you wrote about

on action network.com and in the action network app will both teams kick a field goal longer than 33 yards. And the stat in there was Harrison Bucker has done it in seven of 15 games, so only 47% of the time. And Jake Elliott has basically done it in only a third. third of his games. So there was an edge in playing the no. Both teams will not kick a field goal of more than 33 yards. But now you're giving me like first down research. Take us, like these are so obscure. Explain a little bit. Like how much time did you spend researching this? Do you have a model doing all this and you're just spitting it in there? Like how do you get, there's thousands of props in there? How are you finding the time to find the edge for all these? So the field goal one,

I literally used that in my simulator, so I was able to find that out. That one, you know, I had a 34, there's a 34% chance that neither team kicks a field goal. So that's an automatic winner that not both teams would make a field goal over 33 yards. And then I found there was an 8% chance that at least one team would kick a field goal, but it wouldn't be longer than 33 yards. So that was all just simulator-driven math. For the timeouts, I had so much fun with that one last year. I actually went through and just looked at the game logs.

And I was charting, you know, which ones were wasteful. So any time of that's called before, say, four minutes left in the half, I was charting those as wasteful timeouts. Again, the coaches want to save timeouts for, you know, the two-minute warning and use it to stop the clock. And like I said, Nick Siriani has been masterful with that since he's coming in the league. And I was shocked. Usually Andy Reid is more middle of the pack.

But this year, he was going through timeouts like they were cheeseburgers. just insane how early he's been calling timeouts, how wasteful he's been. So he's been very sloppy. So just the fact that this goes in both directions, I just couldn't believe how much value we're getting on this prop. Oh, my goodness. You say cheeseburger.

You know Andy Reid doesn't eat nothing less than a double cheeseburger. Come on, man. Yeah, whatever he eats. But he's been very sloppy this year. Raybon, remind me what you said about the penalties prop. You still like it at over 10 and a half? Yeah, so I'm saying, yeah, over 10 and a half is still good. over 10 is a slam dunk.

But if they move it to 11.5, then obviously, then you go under. Because then that's just on the far end of the spectrum in terms of penalty ball. All right. So we got over 10 and a half penalties. We got over, we got Kansas City with the first time out, which I kind of love, makes total sense. Simon, as Abba would say, gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme. Let's start off with our first crazy prop of the day. I love these really big odd props.

They're just fun to bet. And all you got to do is hit a couple of them every 10 years and get your money back. So the first one I'm giving out it's most books is better than 10 to 1. I'm looking at Fandool right now. You literally go to defensive props. You scroll down and it says safety during the game. Yes is over 10 to 1 so that there will be a safety in this game. And I love it for a multitude of reasons.

The biggest one is both these coaches, if they get below, fourth and five in the red zone, they are going for it. So I love the fact that the chiefs don't want to run the ball, especially even if it's fourth and one. Statistically, they pass more than any other team of football because they do this weird little shuffle pass play. They're just a team that when they get down there, they're going to go for it.

Same with the Eagles. They've kicked the least amount of field goals this year from closer than 10 yards all season. So when I'm looking at this match, I see both teams that are going to go for it when they're down there and fourth down. and if they both fail, you have two quarterbacks that hold on to the ball, two quarterbacks that had been sacked. So Hurd's got really lucky last week.

He got out of that safety just by an inch at a Bosa's grasp. I don't think he's got the same kind of luck this week. I think he's going to might be hold on too much. So to me, to me, it's closer to eight to one to me than 10 to one. And you get lucky, too. We got really lucky a couple years ago that Denver Seattle game. First snap of the game, Denver snaps out of the back of the end. And so it gets stupid to fall into it as well.

But I do think we have a couple of scenarios that play out well to this number. Well, I think that's fascinating. It used to be for years like that was the one. No overtime, no safety. Like those would be the props that professional betters would bet to the max on no. And they treat it as like a four-hour savings account with a very high return. So I like your logic. It actually feels to me like there's.

a through line in there to what Kerner, what I just mentioned earlier about Kerner and the field goal props in that the expectation is these are, these are not conservative coaches when it comes to play calling. When they're in the red zone, they won't kick field goals. When they are just outside the red zone, say 35 medium range, fourth down, they'll go for it instead of kicking a 50-something-yard field goal. Your theory. fury on their tendencies inside the five is similar to that. Yeah, I like it. And it's the chiefs, they don't got the savior,

Chad Henny in there to drive the field 98 yards. They got to go with my home. That's so much. And he's not nearly as good as Chad Henny when it comes to crunch time. This year, the only app you need at your Super Bowl party is Fanduel. America's number one sportsbook. Download Fan Duel now and use promo code favorites so you can bet Super Bowl 57 with a no sweat first bet. you'll get up to $3,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.

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Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. There's a lot of talk right now about Jalen Hertz. He's been injured. He did not look good in that Niners game. He missed some easy passes, especially early on to A.J. Brown.

How come nobody's talking about Jalen Hertz 240 yards over, under, for passing yards? So I talked about that. That was like, that was like a week ago. I was talking about that when it was up by like 245, 246, 247. And then I thought it was going to keep going up because people keep betting overs. And I woke up one day and it was just 10 yards lower. So I don't know if somebody like agreed with me and steamed the under or what. but now it's kind of like a little bit more in line because I thought it should have been in the mid in the mid two 30s, you know, the whole time and which it's starting to go to now.

But it was initially opened way too high. I think I think it's a lot more fair at this price because on one hand, he's only got over, you know, 243 five times, I believe, in his 17 stars. But you also expect because this is the lowest spread they've had all year, they could be a little bit more past heavy than normal. So I thought the market was overinflating it when it was way up in the mid-240s. But now it's a little more on point, you know, in the mid to high two-30s. Well, for my favorite prop, I'm going to steal one from Simon Hunter, which he talked about, I think we talked about it on Green Dot Daily. We've talked so much about this fucking game at this point.

I can't remember where he talks about it. But I actually love the idea of over two and a half players to throw a pass in this game. I think is brilliant because you know, obviously it hurts and Mahomes are going to do it. Both players are banged up. You don't know if someone is going to have to come out for a play. We clearly know that if they do have to come out for a play, both coaches are not afraid to let the backup quarterback throw the ball. But also, can't you just see Devante Smith coming around the end and flinging a bomb to A.J. Brown? Like I so can see that happening in this game because these are not conservative coaches.

and this is when coaches more and more open up the playbook and go a little bit crazy. So give me the over two and a half for players to throw a pass in the Super Bowl. Cunner's shaking his head. He likes that one. Yeah, I think it would be like Travis Kelsey throwing a jump pass to like the left tackle or something like that. You know, I think it would come from Andy Reid's side. Really?

I actually don't. I think what I've noticed with Andy Reid into big games, he's like, I'm not taking a boy out of my home's hand for no reason. like for nothing. So I feel like it would come from Philly, you know, Ode to the Philly Special or something like that. That would be an interesting bet though. Like if you could bet like one team to throw more than one,

like one player throwing a pass. Maybe they should create that market for us. Maybe they should. If Fando is listening, they should create. Moving everything. Here's the, like you know how like Simmons and McAfee,

like there's always these like bonus bets you're doing or whatever. Like for action, it would be the most obscure. prop you can bet it'd be like, will one team have more than one player throw the ball? That would be the Action Network Special. Or I was going to

say they could do a, I could do the Philly Special, which is, well, either quarterback score a touchdown, receiving, which would be nice too, because they could do some crazy odds on that. Yes. That would be different from just any time, right? Yeah. Yeah, that would be dope, actually. There's

a question in the chat, I think. Kern, do you know this? If a challenge is unsuccessful and a timeout is incurred. Does that count his first time out? Yeah, I think it would. Yeah. Yeah. Okay.

I want each of you to give me one more prop that you love, and then I want to move on to some other ones. So I like to Jared McKinnon under eight and a half longest rush. He's just been completely ineffective running the football. Ever since that walk-off game-winning run against Houston, he's run 24 times for 43 yards with a long of seven. only 10% of his carries have gone for eight or more yards this year. Only 8% of his carriers have gone for nine or more yards this year.

So this started at nine and a half. It's down at eight and a half. There's even value on it at seven and a half tomorrow. I look at this. This guy just has not been finding, you know, explosive runs. And you look at last year, double-digit carries every single postseason game. They tried that this year. First game against Jacksonville, got 11.

Only ran for 25 yards, I believe it was. Second game, four carries, which is his median on the year. he would need, you know, upwards of eight carries to have a fifth, even a 50-50 shot of clearing this prop at eight and a half. So I like the under eight and a half for longest run. Do you have a ceiling on the price? I would probably go down to about minus 140 on eight and a half and minus one, like even money on seven and a half. All right.

Jeremy Kennan under eight and a half yards, longest rush. Croner, give me your next one. Well, I have to be on brand here and give you my favorite punter prop currently. And it's the chiefs to have the longest gross punt in this game. You could get at minus 155, but the chiefs have a massive edge here with Tommy Townsend. He's been averaging 50 and a half yards per punt this season, which ranks second. Whereas the Eagles, we don't even know who their punter is going to be. They might get Aaron Sippis back.

He just came off the IR. He's only average 45 and a half yards per punt, which ranks 26th on this season. I have to imagine he'll be a bit rusty. He might not even be 100% for this game. So, you know, he's going to be even worse than his season average. If he's unable to go, it'll be Brett Kern, who's only averaging 41 yards per punt this season. The only player with a lower average is Jake Elliott, the Eagles kicker who had to fill in for SIPPUS when he got injured in game. So that just goes to show what we're dealing with here.

Off of my sims, I'm getting the chiefs actually closer to a. a 70% chance to have the longest punt. And that's the best case scenario with SIPA's active. So I'm getting the fair price closer to minus 235 here. So again, we're just getting massive value with the Chiefs minus 155 to have the longest gross punt in the game. We don't even think Jake Elliott is going to kick a field goal of more than 33 yards. You know, we can't expect the guy to come off the bench and punt for more than 33 yards.

All right, Simon, what are you got? There's a couple different ways you can go. I think people know my view that I love the sacks in this one. So I'm not even going to give it out. If you want to do any type of over on sacks for the Eagles over two and a half or a total in the game, which I believe it's up to five and a half. I just felt safe for doing the Eagles over two and a half at minus 150. But I'm trying to get out plus numbers here.

And another good one on Fandle is the over interceptions. Is it one and a half is plus 150 right now, 152 to be exact. I think it's a really good number for what. I think the books are overrating is Hertz does really protect the ball during the regular season. I just see both sides being more risky. And we've seen Mahomes in the playoffs, Hickshuterns a ball over at a higher rate than he does during the regular season. And in his career in games, he loses, he actually turns a ball over. So if you're an Eagles backer, you better hope that Mahomes turns a ball over. It's not looking good. They're just

the kind of team that's how you have to beat this Chiefs team. You have to get Mahomes off his spot, which is why I think this Eagles defense would do. So I think they're going to force him a lot of weird, tough throws to get him off balance, and he'll be able to turn the ball over. And the same thing with Hertz. I think Hertz has gotten lucky these last couple weeks of not turn the bowler, but he's kind of left it out there and got away with a few. I don't think the Eagles can hide them in this game.

I think they're going to have to throw the ball. They're not going to be able to just run the ball. Like, they have been these last couple weeks. So to me, that's crazy value when we know the way I'm predicting this game to go. I think it's going to be a high scoring match. That means the ball will be going through the air. So to me, that's a really weird that they're making a plus 150. I think it's just based off the low turnover

through the air that Mahomes had this past season and hurts. So to me, I think it's an overreaction to the regular season where just for this one game, I like that position of taking that over. So interceptions over one and a half, got it. I want to ask a question about Miles Sanders. Turner, earlier in the week, I think last week, you had written that Miles Sanders plus 150

to lead the game in rushing was a prop that you liked. He was at 57 and a half rushing yards. Now is it about 59 and a half. How do you currently have it graded? Because I do think, well, just answer that. How do you currently have it graded? Yeah, so I'm actually in line with his rushing prop.

I have his median right around 58 and a half. But he has just a massive ceiling here. And that's kind of why I liked taking his, you know, prop to lead the game in rushing yards. I actually got it at plus 175. But, you know, the Eagles have been involved in so many blowouts this year. They pulled him and he doesn't play much in the fourth quarter. It's all Boston, Scott, and Kenny Gainwell.

So just the fact that I think he's going to be the lead back for all 60 minutes, Bose well for his ceiling. He handled 79% of the Eagles rush attempts when they're trailing or winning by fewer than seven points. And then it dropped all the way to 61% when the Eagles were up by seven or more. So I just love his ceiling here. And this is, you know, we have so many markets here, a situation like that, I'd just rather invest in a market that captures the ceiling. So I like the fact that we're getting plus 175 as opposed to attacking his median projection. All right.

I can live with that. I like your bet. I'm going to steal another one. I like Miles Sanders to lead the demon rushing. A lot of this is what I, the point I was going to make before is a lot of this is confirmation bias when you make. your bets in that I lean to the under. I think Philly has a dominant defense. I think Philly has when it comes to the pass rush and when it comes to their offensive line, I think they're dominant. And so I think it plays to the game script that they'd have the ball more, that they'd be in

the lead, that Miles Sanders would get the opportunity to run quite often. Which makes me start to think, should I be betting Miles Sanders at Super Bowl MVP? Let's start that debate. I like, I was saying, another good angle of that is this is it for Miles Sanders. So they're probably not bringing them back next year. There's no game to save it for. They've been saving them most of those games

because they don't want them pull any hamstring. So to me, if you're on the Miles Sanders train, Chad, you also could go into Fandall right now, go to player props. Most players rushing yards for the postseason. He's 100 back. right now of Christian McCaffrey, if you think he can do it,

you can get him right now at plus 600. So if he has a game of over 100 rushing yards, that also ties into that. He would league the postseason and playoff rushing yards. So there's a couple sneaky little plays if you want to do those kind of things. That's a play you could do with Miles Sanders where he'd think he's going to lead back in this game.

That's not a bad bet. Well, what do you think of him as Super Bowl MVP? No chance. Just it's so QB driven. Even if he has that incredible game and hurts somehow, rushes for one touchdown, passes for another, has no turnovers.

It'd be hard not to give it to him or whoever the best defensive player is. It's just they really skew the running backs. I mean, that year, what was it, two or three years ago, that Chiefs 49ers game, I think it was McKinnon. Whoever the running back was, had an incredible game. And they still gave it to my homes who really didn't do much in the games. Damien Williams. Damien Williams.

So it is tough, Chad, with the running back with MVP. I totally remember that because I think I had Damien Williams. And we watched that game at a bar in New Jersey. That was also the game where Patrick Mahomes, his rushing yard is 26. And he was just 43. And instead of just taking a knee, he kept running back like seven or eight yards. So I felt like I got lucky because I had Damien Williams to win the MVP, but I also had Mahomes on the under his rushing yard.

So it worked out okay for me. The world gives. Do you know what I'm saying? If you're thinking about MVP then, Simon. who am I looking at? I usually either go safer with crazy long shots. So to me, if I'm taking a side where if I love my homes and I love them to win it all, it's just really impossible to see them win in this game without it being on my home.

So I think that's safe at plus 130 compared to Hertz. I wouldn't touch Hertz. I just, there's too many factors in there where I could see them give it to Hertz. He's just not a lock like Mahomes is for that team. We all know that's the reason they're so good as Mahomes. The Eagles have a lot of parts of that team that make them so good. So if I was going really safe and boring, I'd go to Mahomes. I think we talk a little bit about, you know, reaching for the upside guys.

I just don't like it's been bet down so much was Reddick. He's the pass rusher for the Eagles. It was at 50 to 1 now. Now it's down to 34 to 1. So I still like it. I don't hate it how much it's moved because to me, that's easy X-Fact. of this ego's defense. If he can really get Mahomes off his spot and affect this game, I could see him getting the MVP, but to me, the numbers move so much. I just, right now I'm

sitting here, I would either go with Mahomes or I just wouldn't do anything. Mahomes is plus 130. Jalen Hertz is plus 130. Miles Sanders, by the way, 25 to 1. Kerner, do you have a MVP favorite pet? Yeah, I actually do like Miles Sanders at 25 to 1. I think this, you know, I already took him to leave the game and rushing at plus 175. I just think this game sets up for a ceiling game for him. I also like to look at previous games. And if you look at week four, I think he absolutely would have won MVP. He rushed 27 times, 134 yards, two touchdowns, caught two passes for 22 yards. Jalen Hertz only threw for 200 yards, no touchdowns, interception, ran for 40 yards of the touchdown. I think Sanders would have gotten MVP there. I think if you look at weeks 12 and 14,

even last week in the conference championship game. I think Sanders would have been in discussion. I just think this matchup, especially if the Eagles win, it sets up for a ceiling game for him. And the Eagles are a team where I think a running back could win the MVP. So give me a mile of Sanders at 25 to 1. Oh, Jesus Christ. Now I got to bet that too.

All of a sudden, like for a game where I didn't, I don't have a strong opinion on the side, I got like 85 bets going on here right now. Raybon, are you going to make me add in my list? Yeah, so and so first of all, I want to talk about just the philosophy of betting the MVP because quarterbacks historically over the last 15, 20 years have won about 70% of the time. Wow. So fair odds for each quarterback would be about plus 180, right?

So they're plus 130 each, but I still think there's value on them depending on which sides you like. But I actually think you would be doing yourself a disservice if you didn't bet a quarterback that you like on the side, plus another player on the team because the quarterbacks are both plus 130, everyone else is 16 to 1 or better. So, for example, if you like the Chiefs, you could go Mahomes. And then, you know, we have the Action Network hedging calculator.

And you can see how much you have to put on, let's say, Travis Kelsey at 16 to 1 to then kind of optimize your payout if either of them won. You only have to put another 15 bucks. Let's say you put 100 on Mahomes. You only have to put another $15 on Kelsey. A.J. Brown at 18 to 1. If you put $100 on J.1 Hertz,

you only have to put another $12 on A.J. Brown at 18 to 1. So I think that's how I would attack this market is taking the quarterback for the team that you like more. And then pairing them with, you could even do multiple long shots because all the starters on either team. I mean, AJ Brown, 18 to 1, Miles Sanders, 25 to 1, Devonte Smith, 31 to 1. Dallas got it 60 to 1. Those are the most likely guys. So I like all of those. I think as far as long shots,

and by the way, I do think this year is a year where a running back could win if it's Philly because there's a chance, even if Hertz, let's say, gets one touchdown, whether it's passing or rushing, if Miles Sanders gets multiple touchdowns or something like that, I think he has a shot. So I actually like Kenny Gainwell at 1.30 to 1

because he's got two different ways. He could win. He could win if they're blowing him out. But you could also win if they earn a comeback game script. and let's say he gets a touchdown early and then another one, he catches a bunch of balls and then gets another one late

and Hertz only has one. I think there's a chance game will win too, so I like him at one third to one. You know what's so interesting about this? Like I said, I have no opinion on the side yet. I've literally bet both sides of it, both teams as underdogs. And as I'm thinking about this game

and listening to these conversations and realizing what I'm betting for the props, all the props I'm betting, are positive for the Eagles and negative for the Chiefs. Under Jerich McKinnon, Longest Rush, I like Miles Sanders as MVP. I like Miles Sanders to lead the game in rushing. I like the under which plays to the strengths of the Eagles in this game.

This is like, it's astonishing to me how I'm talking myself into the Eagles on this game. Okay, Chad, well, then just bet Travis Kelsey six. 16 to 1. Remember last year? Cooper Cup, well, he was the top pass catcher. Like top pass catch. First of all, two of the last four winners have actually been pass catchers. And even if Cup doesn't win last year, it's T. Higgins that's going to win. So either way, a pass catcher would have won last year. Travis Kelsey 16 to 1. That Cup closed 6 to 1 last 6 to 1 last 4th. He has a touchdown in 11 of his last 14 postseason games. He got 90 plus and 6 of his last 7 postseason game. So if the Chiefs win, they could be a situation. where Mahomes, because of how good the Eagles defense is, Mahomes could throw for like 250, 260 with two touchdowns. Travis Kelsey could go for like 130 with both of those touchdowns. Who wins with the brother battle thing? Could be Kelsey.

So I actually think if you like to, if you want a positive chiefs bet, Travis Kelsey is a crazy good value. Well, I'm not just going to do Travis Kelsey. I'm going to do Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. Yeah, exactly. There you go. There you go. I'm going to do Mahomes for $5.

and I'm going to do Kelsey for $2.50. And I'm going to look in the Action Network Hedge calculator. What are you poor? Liz, exactly. I'm no Raybon. I'm no Hunter. I'm not like, I'm scared. It's a button.

It's a button. It says maximum wager possible or whatever it says. Hit that button, Chad. Live a little. I'm an old guy living in Connecticut with two kids. like Raybon is you know living his best life in L.A. Kerner is not too far away. Simon, you know, Jesus, I can't, I can't hang with this crowd.

Five dollars. Forget about it. Forget about it. All right. Well, I like all those. I'm betting all of them. There's not a single bet I'm not making here. There's a couple more topics I do want to hit.

Can we talk about pregame exotics specifically? the National Anthem, which the amount of research that goes into this year after year has become so intense. Kroner, do you have a strong opinion on National Anthem right now? Oh, no, I never do. I just tail Raybon. I only bet on things I can, you know, use numbers and simulate, but this is all Raybon. All right, Raybon. Yeah, so the overrunner I've seen for this is two minutes and five seconds. And I would go under. So the way I've been looking at this is a lot of times people try to find the singer and see if they've done it before. I find that gives you zero insight. Because what happens is the singer invariably just drags it out for the actual anthem. And it's nothing,

the time comes in nothing like any of the other renditions they've ever done. So I just look at the numbers for the actual Super Bowls in years past. So for the last 16 Super Bowl, The average has been a minute 59. The median has been a minute 56 and a half. And no, there's always been a few guys, by the way, that have done it. And they've stayed under the two minute and five second mark. So I think it's a rare under. I think the books are finally kind of over and overcorrected here for the, you know, for going over. But 12 of the 16 have gone under two minutes and five seconds over the last 16th Super Bowl. So I'm going under for the, for the anthem this year. In the last 10 days, Raybon, have you spent more time researching National Anthem,

Jerich McKinnon Longest Rush, or Super Bowl MVP? Probably Jared McKinnon longest rush, to be honest. Because I had to go through each one of the rushes than I had to go back to last year. Look at how far off that was. But I mean, it's close with the anthem. But the anthem, I kind of have this, this information. So I really just have to go back to last year, add in the numbers. And it was Mickey Guyton. He took a minute and 50.

But last year, the books were at like a minute in 45 or something like that. So she ended up going over. But now I feel like they've kind of overcorrected here. And again, it's just been, it's rare that you get a guy. It's been almost all women. The guys have tended to be a little bit shorter, a little bit, longer, so they've kind of put it up, but like not that much longer to, you know, to go to 205, just a tiny bit. So yeah, you got to go under here. That's a massive swing. That 20 seconds is a

massive swing. Yeah. Simon, tell me about your theory on the Gatorade prop. Well, the Gatorade prop, it's just a crazy amount of hearsay. And that's what a lot of the Super Bowl props are, just like the, trying to calculate how long the guy's going to sing for. We all remember last year, maybe it was year before. That guy posted that video and all hell started breaking loose because it was a video of the warmup singing of the national anthem. And it literally did move the line by like 20 seconds. So that's one of those things too where be wary of that stuff.

If you're like this, you're betting this now and all of a sudden you've seen it move by 20 seconds or 10 seconds, search the internet because something might have leaked. That's what we're going through right now where I think I got some good info on the gator rate stuff and we're going to see how it's going to play out. But basically the rumors are is that the Eagles sideline has two yellow and green gatorades and they rotate between a blue and a red for the other one. And all the chief sidelines, they always have one yellow or green gatorade. So just simple math, if we got six, six altogether, so three on both sidelines.

And it's combined, there's three yellow and green gatorades. I think there's good value on betting that number. And especially when both teams, that's both in their colors, both teams have yellow or green in both their colors. So for me, for the Eagles one, I'm doing that, the yellow and green, and then I'm also betting red as well, just for the chiefs in case they win it. To me, it feels like those are two the safer bets. And also have to look into where the Gatorade's position.

So that's one of those where I might tweet out something Sunday, but I told Chad, I have a little inkling of where I think this one's going to go. So I'm just grabbing the green and yellow early now because I've just, I've heard the rumors and I've seen the line move where it was a plus 350. now a lot of books is down to plus 275. I would just grab it. I see it suddenly down at 250 by the time this game kicks off. Fellas, as far as I can tell,

we've covered player props, we've covered penalties, we've covered punts, we've covered sacks, we've covered MVP, we've covered first time out, we've covered national anthem, we've covered Gatorade.

What did I miss? Am I missing anything? Conner. Five dollar units? We've covered my unit size. Yeah. There's nothing. There's nothing that hasn't been covered.

Croner, am I missing anything? Is there anything in your Godforsaken database of 10 million data points and the biggest game of the year that I missed? No, I mean, we, we, do have more player props if you want to go over some more. Yeah, we, we, one thing we didn't talk about, unless I'm missing it was, we didn't talk about anytime touchdown, right? Or touchdowns in general. We didn't talk about any time touchdown. Yeah. I would say, you know, for everyone who wants, like, like the one that is a really good chance to hit, again, Travis Kelsey has scored in his last five postseason games, 11 of his last 14 postseason games. He's got the whole brother narrative going on.

I think minus 115 is still, it's like a little overval. Like I think his touchdown odds are just under 50-50 when you project it out. But like when you consider just how much it goes up in the postseason, it's really tough to model that. So I think that's a really good play. But, you know, I know Sean and I have been talking about this guy, Jody Fortson, all week. You know, first touchdown, anytime touchdown, whatever you want. I think he's a really great, like, long shot bet because he, 29% of the first. of his career catches have gone for touchdowns.

And then this year, 38% of his targets have been inside, not the 20, but inside the 10 yard line. And he's running about eight routes per game, which is really good for a number three tight end. And he only came back for the championship. He was out for about the last month, month and a half before that. So, you know, he's kind of still under the radar. I don't think he did anything in that last game. But he should be out there, you know, eight for about seven to ten routes.

and it's more than likely that if he gets a target, it gets a catch, it's coming in the end zone. So Jody Fordson, I believe he's at 12 to 1 for any time. And he's way up there for first touchdown. So that's the guy that I would encourage people to take a shot on for a long shot. Kerner, give me one more player prop. Yeah, so this is a market where I do like a player like Kwez Watkins. You can get him at plus 750.

He's not a player I would invest in like the over on his receiving yards or something like that. I'm giving him a 25 to 30 percent chance he doesn't even catch a pass here, but he carries a ton of upside when it comes to catching long touchdowns. All three of his touchdowns this season have been on targets 20 plus yards down field. So a game like this where the Eagles will probably more pass heavy because it's going to be a rare close, potentially trailing game script. I think, you know, this is a time to invest in Watkins ceiling. And if you look at, you know, Watkins' three touchdowns in 16 games, that's a fair price of. of plus 430.

So I just think we're getting quite a bit of value here with Watkins at plus 750. Well, listen, if I know anything, having been unconvinced me with all three of you, all season long, which everyone can watch on Sunday morning at 11 a.m. In the Action Network app, Action Network HQ on Twitter, Action Network on YouTube. I know that Raybon has made a living on Kwez Watkins under receiving yards. I know that Raybon is going to be on Kwez Watkins under one and a half receptions. I know for a fact that

Sean Curner is now saying Chris Raybun doesn't know what he's talking about. So that's exactly what it sounded like to me. So I look forward to the Kwez Watkins battle for convince me for the Super Bowl preview. I never know what I'm talking about, Chad. I just, it's just a lot of luck. Cuez will have one catch for 80s and a touchdown.

I'm actually on the word of that. You're going to thread that needle. You're going to be like this. That is exactly this. To be honest, that's why I'm not betting his yardage. This game, I thought the volume was a smarter play because the odds of them getting two catches are still super low. But like this is a game.

Like you saw the last game. He got like a, I think a 33 yard target. It just got broken up by Traverius Ward. Like I could see that happening again. Like he's going to get his one, his one deep shot. And I think he has a decent chance of connecting because the chiefs aren't, you know, the San Francisco 49ers. All right, boys.

We've covered the whole field. we've done it. Simon Hunter, Sean Curner, Chris Raybon for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Millman. This has been the Favorites podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Don't forget people.

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