The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Super Bowl Trends with Evan Abrams

Episode Date: January 30, 2025

Patrick Mahomes has played 50 total games at home or on a neutral field in November or later. He's won an incredible 44 of those 50 games. This is just one of the marvelous statistical nuggets Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams unearths for us in this episode. Together with hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, Evan goes through his top trends and data finds for Super Bowl LIX, kicking off in New Orleans next Sunday. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.

We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs.

We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in. He's like, you know, I love you, dog.

You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your Podcast. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne. Yeah. This is my best friend, Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. A redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips. This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Well, they hit a bogo. Well, then you got them. Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app. Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Bet365.

We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. I'm in our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio. I'm joined as always by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better. Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. And I am in my Tommy John studio.

Thank you, Tommy John. My brother. Yeah. It's good to see you. Another day closer, brother. One day closer. Today is a big episode. It's our Super Bowl Trends episode with our favorite director of research. And favorites mainstay. The man who signed jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams will bring them on in a second. Next Tuesday, we've got Chris Raybon and Sean Crenner on to discuss their favorite props. And then Thursday, we will of course nail down and discuss our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who Christ. crushed it all season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets that I religiously made.

We're going to give out our foxhole, our Tommy John. Big balls. Simon's biggest bets. We'll play scutroulette, all that jazz. The road to the Super Bowl is long and pointless. I mean, what do you think about it? Football's so great. But now the two conference champs must survive a harrowing buy week that no one enjoys.

Buy weeks. Bronco Negerski didn't get no bye weeks. And now he's dead. Well, maybe they're a good thing. For now, we've got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And now new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites.

Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, players, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary, at Bet365, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or 1-800-bets-off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls this week as well. We did a little bit of it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer to the game a week from today.

First, let's bring in Evan Abrams, Director of Research. He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that we rely on so much during the season. Evan is going to lay it out for us in one big palette. Let's go, brother. Give me your first best trend. Well, first of all, Chad, hi. How are you? This one panders directly to you, though.

So we started off with our biggest don't drink. By the way, there's only one person who likes pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it a political show, but we all know who that is. Well, yeah, we're here to kind of tease you a little bit because this is the one you're going to, you've been really looking for. So only betting the best teams is something you kind of talk about all the time. This year you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles, which is a ticket you had in the preseason, them meeting in the Super Bowl. Thanks to you. But this is an interesting thing.

And I think it says a little bit more about. the current state of the NFL, let's call it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about taking the strategy of all 12 to 1 teams or shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a round robin approach. So I spoke with Matt and basically we doveed into this. So I just want to start there and say if you're feeling bold and every August for the last 10 years, you bet every single combination of teams at 12 to 1 or shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos. in that span, it's won four times in 67 total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs Bucks, and Pat's Rams.

That's the four times it's hit. Now, of the 67 total combos, we've had four winners, so we've had 63 losers. At one unit per bet, the four winners paid about 84 units minus the 63 losers. You'd be up about 21 units doing this round-robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling so bold? What about just straight, flat betting every 12 to one team or shorter? So over the last decade, that's 56 total teams. So 56 bets.

It's won nine times, including this year. And it's lost 47 times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight winners paid out 65 units minus the 47 losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up about 18 units holding the Philly and K. KC tickets. Now, for what it's worth as well, and this is just obviously more about the current state of the NFL, 2014, which is one year back of this sample size, New England plus 650 won at all. 2013, Seattle, 8 to 1 won at all. Now, 2012 is where we get a string of long shot, starting with Baltimore, who won at 18 to 1. But basically since that 2013 year, we have consistently seen

the Brady's, the Mahomes, and just the favorites every single year. Chad, so your strategy, far, so good. Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your strategy because I basically just did what you told me to do. Because I believe the stat is, and now it's 11 of the past 12 seasons, the teams who had odds of 12 to 1 or less, were in the Super Bowl. They were the matchup. No, so it's the Super Bowl champion.

A bunch of those years, you had the other team in the mix. So only four times last decade have both teams actually fit your trend, where both were 12 to 1 or shorter in the Super Bowl odds. And we basically had to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense? Because you're basically taking every team that's 12 to 1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl. Yep. And then you're taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting a ticket. Yours was like 28 to 1, right?

Right. Yes. Yeah. So this one I believe was like 27 to one using these odds. But basically you'd be around those units. But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious to what Simon thinks like because everyone loves these long shots. And basically it hasn't hit up one year in the past 12 or 13 years in the NFL. And this is a one game sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's a honestly a little bit crazy. Yeah. My view, I think I haven't agreed with this is I take long shots to hedge and I've missed the best ones in the last. four or five years. I missed on the Bengals, 150 to 1, and I obviously missed on the commanders this year at 151. That's a position, right? That's where you want to go. You want to take those type of bets, you know, this, a great one this upcoming year. People are going to fucking hate us, Chad, for saying it. Guess who's 101 right now, or 150 to one, I should say, Panthers. So you think they can make the next step. They get the right guys. That's the type of team you got to do. You got to do it on a team that no one believes in. The Joe Burrow one, that was a flukeish one, right? He's coming of knee injury after his rookie year.

The commanders won obviously no one saw coming, right? I didn't see too many people flashing their 151 tickets they had. I know that one guy had a, was it circ- I forgot what book it was. It was basically bet 2K to win 500K on the commanders. Didn't come through. I'm sure that pro hedged it out, but yeah, what Evan's telling you right now is the league has gotten not, we want to say stale, but it kind of has, right? It's the top dogs.

And even coming this year, Chad was going through his list. And I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that. one right I remember saying the child was like don't don't do Houston stay away for them I just don't think they have the pieces and I think I also gave them bad advice too I said I wouldn't do the lines coming to this year I thought there's too much bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the year before the 49ers got very lucky that one worked out because for a minute they midway through the season I was like I just cost Chad a ton of money the lions are a juggernaut so I'm with you on that Evan I would love to hear

what you have on Patrick Mahomes I actually gave out a trend I thought was a good one that I was wrong on. My man, Evan, helped me out. I thought Mahomes was 50-0 on Dome Games. He is 14-0-1 in Dome Games. He is 14-0-1 in Dome games. In Dome games in his career, pretty insane. Absolutely insane. And yeah, these are the stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the Super Bowl. I was talking about this before we even went live here. They feel all made up. Like this legit feels like you put that stat out there where someone's like 25. and two and everyone, you know, thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So let me just kind of go through some of these. In January or February, Mahomes has played 18 games at home or on a neutral field. He's 16 and 2 straight up. His losses are against Burrow and Brady. If you throw in

November and December, he's 44 and 6 straight up. Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a favorite under a field goal eight times. He's 8-0 straight up and ETS in those games. when you talk about on the field success and basically these games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit, Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine total playoff games. He's won six, forced overtime in two of those games. Mahomes has played 20 games in the playoffs. He's 17 and 3 straight up, 85%. Minimum 10 games in the playoff starts.

That win percentage is second best since 1950, behind just Bart Starr, who is 9 and 1, which is 10 playoff games. And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, Bart Starr is the only quarterback to go three straight. Because remember, he had an NFL championship, and then they won those first two Super Bowls. So that's the company he's keeping on that one. Yeah, just trophies, trophy names at this point. It's ridiculous.

He's winning Hallis because, you know, he's meeting Hallis. It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home. The Holmes has started 26 games away from home as either an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. 21, 4, and 1 against a spread, 84% in those games. I'll say that one again because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, 26 games, away from home as an underdog or a favorite of three or less, 21, 4 and 1, 84%. Jesus Christ.

Simon. We are just so setting ourselves up. to be crushingly humiliated. Like, you know, it's like, we are not the people who lean into stats like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in a month.

like the fact that we have invested the way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us up to be on the wrong side. I just got to, I have to say that out loud, do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you with me when you hear these things? Like when I hear these things, it makes me uncomfortable. It doesn't make me feel better about my position. No, I only worry about you mushing regular season. Playoff, I don't think you can mush it.

There's too much going on the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no, we talked about like Evan said on the top of the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk about my home because we've never seen it before. And it's what we keep talking about. The models don't get it, right? Computer models can't get it because it's, it doesn't sound real what he does.

And it's the same thing with Brady. Like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent that just breaks all the rules, all the trends. And yeah, just hearing these numbers, even like Evan, even though he told us these don't sound real, but they're real. they still don't sound real, right? The fact that he is just reading off all these stats where it's 24, 21 and 4, 8 and 0, 16 and 2.

It's like, holy shit, man. This kid is just so incredible. 29 years old, too, only 29. Yeah, that one away from home is, as an underdog, is absurd. Yeah. He's the grim reaper. And everyone kind of talks about it in these situations. But when you're winning like that neutral and away, and, you know, even if you're,

his losses and it's weird you look at him. Some of them are at home. They're just eggs sometimes during the regular season. When he goes away from home, he becomes a killer. Great teams aren't always great. They're just great when they have to be. And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told this to Simon. And okay, so he's 5 and 0 neutral field, which we get, I mean, the Super Bowls, plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing that's crazy about it is 20, And this is the stat that kind of blows me away. So since 2018, enter in the fourth quarter overtime, down one possession, one to eight points. Chiefs have had 12 drives.

They've scored on 11 of them. 11 of 12 drives, down one score. They've scored 11 times out of 12 drives, 2018 in the playoffs. All other teams are like 5 of 11, 3 of 9, 2 of 9. I mean, he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous. So that's my Mahomes stats. But that's why you bet with him.

Yeah. Because like you have to because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time. Announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At the end of the game, do you want to be on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has the ball in his hand and they need a score to win?

That's it. That's how you're betting this game. You know what I mean? It's just, it is absurd. I can't say it enough. And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo. I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in that game. But in the end, I mean, he was stone cold.

And the other one we can talk about with Mahomes, but also has to do with Andy Reid, is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy Reid is. But the combo together is actually pretty crazy. And it's another stat, which just feels made up. But during the season, Mahomes has played 34 games on extended rest, since 2019. So that's basically eight days or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday. It would be more than that. He's won 30 of those 34 games straight up. So 30 and four losses of Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hertz and Aidan O'Connell. Again, one Jalen Hertz, which is funny, but 30 and

four. Just absolutely stupid stuff. Our Bet365 Super Bowl prop contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on Bet365, email your top Super Bowl prop ideas to podcasts. There's an S at the end of that. Podcasts at action network.com. You must adhere to state gaming commission rules, which basically means every part of the bet has to be settled on the field of play, on the field, in the box score. The winning submissions often have a clever name like the Brocktipus or the Millennium Falcon. that's from the Matt Ryan Super Bowl.

Winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to come onto the show. Talk to me and Simon about it. The Pick will go live on the Bet365 website. Submissions are open until Thursday. Podcasts at Actionnetwork.com. That is today.

This is your final warning. Get them in here. Missions must be in today. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to a podcast. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas. brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I broke down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam?

It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Al-Oladano and our podcast point game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves,

I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense.

And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the fly. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick.

Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the, iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the pair. I'd be too nervous.

That's right. The very funny, Will Ferrell joins Rory Scovel and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nipers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault.

And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught.

You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to Crime List on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, Evan. By the way, you have one job. Make me and Simon feel better. So don't make me feel bad. Well, okay, so some of this information, I'm just a man who delivers.

All right. I don't fully love everything, but I think some of the numbers on some of these are interesting. So let's give you one trend. And let's see your thoughts on it because I think you and I, especially in all the shows you and I have done together. Sample size is something that's important of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo. So the question is, is there anything we can glean from that?

So the Eagles scored 55 points in the conference championship the most in that round in NFL history. Only two other teams have scored more than 45 points in a conference championship. Bills did it in 91, then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it in 2016, then also lost the Super Bowl. So 10 total teams have scored 40 points. plus points in a conference championship game. They are three and seven in the Super Bowl.

So another one, and I'll add on top of it, and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat the commanders by 32 points, teams won by double digits in a conference championship round facing a team who did not, three and six straight up and against the spread Super Bowl since 2000, failing to cover by 9.5 points per game, which would tell you they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I could look back and look. but if you're winning by double digits and then you're a underdog in the game, that probably doesn't happen often. But to me, it does probably speak on a little bit of competition.

So I'll get your thoughts on that and then we can kind of move on. But both of those trends kind of telling you that the conference championship is a little bit of a hold on wait before you act quick. Yeah, Simon, you go ahead. I agree with it. Like just even not knowing those trends, just the thinking of it, it's like how often we see a team play their best game of the year and then totally. have a let down the following game, right?

It's just one game you go from everything is going perfectly the well, everything is moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers, you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and then the next week, everything feels harder, right? Like, you know, my buddy who I went to the book with, he was on Washington, he turns to me after that first drive that Washington had, he said, was exactly what Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit. They did earn every yard than it was against Detroit. And that's how football can be, right?

You have the right match with the right team. It can be easy. And once it feels easy and you have confidence, it's the opposite for the other team, right? They're losing confidence and they see how hard it is to stop you. That's, to me, what really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off. Their easiest game, in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right? I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football has an easy.

It's the most points ever scored in a conference championship game. So I think that's what Evans kind of telling you people. It's like Eagles just had the best game over their life. You expect them to have a letdown game. And then going against the Mahomes team, they're just straight as an arrow. Same old Mahomes, winning by three, close game, one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right? That was just another Mahomes' India Reed game.

So that's what I'm definitely taking away from what Evan's telling us there. Yeah, I also take away from it during the regular season. It's almost like an auto fade. the team that wins by, you know, four plus touchdowns, you immediately want to look in the other direction. Now, again, to Evan's point, unless it's Detroit during the regular season. Right, exactly. And to Evans point, normally that team the next week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So there's a little bit of a difference here. But to me, it actually speaks to that there is an opportunity. This team is at the top of the market. I wonder if, this game opens with the Chiefs' even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two-point favorites if the

Eagles don't crush the commanders the way they do, especially because the commanders were the public side in that game. So the people who were betting on the commanders are going to see the Eagles as being even better than they might have believed they were that, you know, you might even be getting half a point of value from a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now. Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, Do you have any trends about them after the buy week of? Oh, man. So this one's just strange. And I think a little bit of momentum has something to do with this one,

but let me lay it out. So the Chiefs had a buy week entering the playoffs. The Eagles didn't playing in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buy been even this late into the playoffs? Entering the Super Bowl, and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already. In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy entering the playoffs, facing a team who did play in the wild card game

or who did not have a buy, four and 12 straight up, 2, 13 and 1 against the spread, which would be very, very bad for the by week chiefs in that situation. I think the thing you can only really glean from this is that like taking that buy

doesn't give you as much momentum because we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot. But to me, this one just feels like some weird noise. I don't know what to make of it. Feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two weeks of rest and yeah you know it it i don't know it it's not a huge sample set but it's the only one it's the only

one that we have i don't know that the next 26 times this happens it won't be flipped yeah but to make sense of it in my view of it is football is all about rhythm and timing so the chiefs here that played what two games where their starters now going to be for a month and a half yeah yeah so that to me that does that up to it where you know that is a big deal that you have a week off play two games and you have another week off so that that definitely is going to be a part of it right the team's just not in a rhythm not in sync but what chad just mentioned here is you know my homes they're always in rhythm right it just when you watch him play even last year against the 49ers he was in the rhythm for that whole first half once he got a rhythm in that game it totally flipped the switch once he gets

going i don't think they punted the rest of the game right once he got going against the four defense. So that to me, if that makes sense when you break it down like that, yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not, you know, not, not ready for that game speed because they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed. But we talk all the time. Mahomes, if anyone's going to go against that trend, it's, he's definitely got it back in that spot. Yeah, that one feels, sorry. That one feels, I don't know, I'm not buying it. And I'm not buying it because I don't want to buy it. I don't, I want the confirmation bias. I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet. It doesn't feel like we know enough. Yeah, the four and

12 throws me off. The two, 13 and one could have been something to do with the point spread, but four and 12 kind of confirms it's not. So a little noisy for me. Don't know what to make of it. Simon, as you may remember, back in 1993, the most indelible image of Super Bowl of 27 was captured captured long after the game was out of reach with five minutes to go. And as Dallas Cowboys up five touchdown, Leon Lett picked up a fumble and began to run. But right before he scored, Buffalo receiver, Don Beebe, and his never say die, Western New York attitude chased him down, 64 yards to knock the ball loose for a touchback. Some claim it was Leon's showboating near the end zone that cost him his. chance for glory. But true ballers

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Never. Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm going with him either. I am finding it out as I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell. He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of Powerhouse, Evan, tell me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles who's keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night, Vic Fangio. And you're right, Matt is a word smith. So you've got to give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here, I think this is a, just, there's a bunch of different ways to look at this. So obviously, defensive coordinator, Eagles.

But in this situation, facing Mahomes, he's done that eight times in his career. So he did it six times with the Broncos. He did it twice with the Dolphins. Now, Mahomes is eight no in those games, straight up, six and two against the spread. Mahomes has 10 touchdowns, two picks, 64% completion percentage. Feels a little low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms of the 10 touchdowns in just eight games. But I kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one because I think this story is going to be out there a lot. So two of his lowest 10 passing yard games in the regular season have come very very,

versus Fangio. Granted, Denver's offense scored 15 points in those two games, so didn't really put up too much of a fight. Passing yards after catch, which important in this game, first and fourth lowest career from a home's in regular season against that Fangio defense in those eight games. Bad throw percentage. So that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt. He's had 21 games at 23% or higher. Three versus Fangio. Of 20 negative EPA games in his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also two of his top 10 worst EPA games versus Fangio defenses. Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had 20% pressure percentage, which is a times pressured per dropback. So I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton

of games. I think the eight and no makes sense. I think the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points. But overall, I think last time they met against Miami, he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed with him a little bit. I think he's going to give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games. I think the data is actually a bit of a, yeah, you'll see the 8 and no, but I think there's a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've looked at going through it. Now that's what I take from it. Thank you. I needed to hear that because I was diving in the ice. When I saw those numbers you had, I was like, oh my God. Is this a bad magic because when I on paper what you just said makes sense to me where it's like this should be the

perfect defense from my homes you're only rushing four and you're giving them exotic looks which that's that's the only way to beat this guy right if you don't have a max crosbie on your team you know you need to have a really strong front floor because we've seen that even the raiders when they beat them that's why they beat them right that front four gets pressure so that's what the eagles need to do here and you know that that really backs up what i thought come into us and you know let's let's let's think about this for a second And if this is the only way to beat them, I need those numbers to come true what you just said, Evan. I need Mahomes to have a bad game.

You basically need the offense of the Eagles to show up. If they can basically put up, well, you just talk about over 15, 16, 17 points, you know, if they get in the 20-point range, 25 points, there is a chance to get beat this team because Mahomes, like I said,

coming into this, I thought this would be an under game because I just can't see Mahomes putting up 30 points in back-to-back weeks. Like I thought last week, you know, we've talked coming into this, We thought the bills had a weak defense, right? They've had injuries.

We know they had 70 million dead caps, so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense that Moops put up 32, his highest scoring game the whole year. You're giving me some confidence. I mean, I needed to hear that from Vic because I was worried when I saw that trend

that he was 8-0 against Fang's defenses. So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to know how often these games were played on extra wrestling. or off of a buy because I do think we've seen through your stats and through the years, no one is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid, right? Well, he said it was divisional. He said it was Denver. You can count it as a buy chat just because that means they prep in the off season for that defense, which I agree with you.

It's like you could throw that into it, but that to me is pretty interesting that he was like, they had extended time to prep against it. And Fang's defense was still pretty damn good for being on not that great of a Denver defense. See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit. Go ahead. The one I did look up because I felt like

the other part of this. Forgetting Fangio for a second, I wanted to look at because the Eagles past defense has been something we've been discussing all year and it's kind of everywhere. And this helps your Mahomes case on one angle. But Mahomes versus past defenses, 200

yards allowed or less past defense. He's 23 and 3 in his career, 12 straight wins. His last loss was October 22 against Buffalo. In November or later, he's 12 and 0 straight up career. So the great past defense thing, and yeah, he's 12 and 0 in every stat I'm going to give, but the fact that the 200 yards are less on past defense and the 12 and 0 and 12 or later in November tells me it's a mature past defense, right? Like this isn't a September past defense that's played three games. I mean, this is a defense that's been a few games into the season and feels the stat more heavy to me. So, absurd.

Well, the other thing I was going to say, and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning, which might lead to us liking Dr. Nicks, past Patrick Mahomes, under 36 and a half pass attempts even more. But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon, Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust in game. there's just nobody better at it, right? They can see it and do it series to series, almost play to play

because they're so in tune and so good at figuring out what the other team is doing and how to master the opposition. Look, it's a great defense. There's no rationalizing that it will be giving everyone fits, but it's what makes it so much more interesting, right? Yeah, it makes me think, too, of Josh Allen. I haven't had some amazing stats

when Josh Allen plays really good defenses. his game gets even better. He's even better. And same goes from my home. It's just two absolute unicorns in the sport where, you know, most normal guys are going to struggle against great defenses, but not not these guys. And, um, and I would love if we could play a round of remember these guys. This is, I mean, as a guy who was born in the late 80s, I like sitting down and just naming old players. It's what I do for a living. It's my most fun. 89 just December 89th. 87, 87. I'm, I'm in the middle there. I'm in the middle. there. But basically, I was trying to do some research on

Sequin Barclay and like how someone like that based off of his season could possibly do in a Super Bowl or how many guys to put up his numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are the 11th team to enter a Super Bowl with a 15-100 plus yard regular season rusher. And actually the first since Sean Alexander in 2005 and Corey Dillon in 2004. So those teams with those 1,500 yard rushers are actually 8 and 2 in the Super Bowl. The two losses are Sean Alexander in 05, Jamal Anderson, 1998.

Siriani, and the thing that I thought was interesting of those 10 teams, is they're adding a rusher like Saquan Barclay, but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So what I looked at was Siriani and Hertz have been there, and they added Barclay. How many times of those 10 rushers before Barclay did they have a coaching quarterback with Super Bowl experience? So 2004, Corey Dillon, they had been there.

It was Belichick and Brady, 2004. They won the Super Bowl. 1998, it was Shanahan and Elway. They had Terrell Davis. They won the year prior. They won the Super Bowl. 1988, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh in Montana.

They had both won twice prior to that. They also won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been there with that rusher, actually 3 and 0. Now, they're 8 and 2 overall, so I'm not telling you something crazy. But I was trying to come up with some sort of comp for just, we've been here before. We've gone through the prep. Plus, we also have this guy who's having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well in that spot.

So that's the way I kind of looked at it and trying to calculate like how this team adding this player who's been there would do very, very small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing is Sequin's prop, right, which is like 112, 114 or so this week. the question is, we haven't seen someone run for 120 yards in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in 2003. So, I mean, either way, getting to that number or higher is, you know, it's Terrell Davis territory in 98. So I guess we're going to have to see how it does. That's how long it's been since a guy ran for that many yards?

Yeah. I remember, you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember that Super Bowl used to be dominated by running backs. I know. Before your time in the early 80s. We're talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days. And now you're telling me it's 22 years since a running back ran for 120 yards. That is something.

It is, but it doesn't make sense, too, though, because you think most teams are going to have a dominant, great running back, probably going to have a bad quarterback, right? Derek Henry, he's with Tannahill. I mean, CJ 2K, that Tennessee team, they had nothing. I mean, that Tennessee team had nothing. And Adrian Peterson, go back and look through his career, all those incredible running seasons. He just never had a quarterback.

So we don't want to blame the running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch, right? Those incredible years, they were still a pass happy offense, right? With Russ. So it does make sense we dive into it. We're right. This shows what kind of unicorn situation. This is where you have the best offensive line,

the best running back, and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely make sense we dive into it. We joke that, you know, the running back have had a rebirth these last couple of years. Like they were dead, right? The 2010s to 2020, the running back position just felt like it was nothing. Getting no money, no respect.

Now it's definitely going the other way, right? That extra cap money, teams are using it on these legit running backs. And we saw it this year, Dehr, Carranery, Sequin, major, major differences to the teams they joined. Yeah, poor Joe Shine and the New York Giants, those clips of him

hearing from that, one lowly scout assistant whatever in his office saying, are we sure no one's going to pay Sequin? And everyone being like, no one's going to pay him. And then him having the painful conversation with Sequin that they're going to let him test the market like, oh my God, it's, it's excret. Chad, not even that.

His daughter or son told him a daughter or son told him a draft, Jaden Daniels. Oh, that's right. That's right. Yeah, he was like, you get this job one. in your lifetime, why don't you go get the best player? It's like, holy shit, this kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football. Got out, thank you. That's amazing. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about

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We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down?

Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. People could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer. or Street or Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reed. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stopped by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash, but get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the parrot. I'd be too nervous.

That's right. The very funny Will Ferrell joins Rory Scoble and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault.

And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why?

If you don't want to be suspect of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to crime lists on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right. Evan, it's called the most efficient market of the year for a reason. Explain. Unbelievable. Sides and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl. It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever.

58 total Super Bowl is a date. Favorites 27, 29, and 2 against the spread. There was no total in Super Bowl 1. I can make one up, but I'm not going to. Since then, overs 28, 28, and 1. Absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history. In the last 21 games, the over is 10 and 11. Can't get much more efficient than that.

And the public opinion really is no help. Sides getting the majority of tickets. 11 and 10 straight up in ATS in the Super Bowl since 2004. In the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side. He won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago. But truthfully, it's just dead even. It's a craziest thing. Talk about the most efficient market ever.

All right. Last one before we get out of here. We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend for the Eagles and the Chiefs? Yeah, fifth coaching rematch in Super Bowl history, all time. Head coach who won the first meeting, straight up, on the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done with Cawflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marl Levy, sorry Matt Mitchell, and Chuck Knoll and Tom Landry.

And the craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles, March. It's just the second time in NFL history. Same teams have met in the Super Bowl in a twice in a three years stretch. Dills and Cowboys, 92 to 93. So, you know, quick rematch here, I think is really fun because we just saw this. We had a few, you know, ingredients to the pie. We kind of go from there. How does it make you feel, Simon?

I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different than they were the first time around. You go back and look, you know, the Eagles leading Russia with, Hertz with 70 yards. They're giving the ball to Miles Sanders. Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line and we have Saquan Barkley. So it is interesting going back.

I mean, I painfully had to do it yesterday. I had to go back and watch that game that Super Bowl. I did not watch the final two minutes. I already know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously the defense is totally different now. Like it's really noticeable how different the style is compared to

Gannon and this Fang's defense where it was basically just being very careful, very soft playing zone the entire game where this new Eagles team, super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man. And yeah, obviously when you break it down, the coaching mismatch, me and Chatterer gave our opinion, we think the chiefs have a huge advantage and Andy Reed and Spagg. So yeah, it doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches, you know, especially the Coughlin one, he had the Patriots number. Like he had the secret sauce, right? that the four rushers, smart with the ball in offense, very boring football, it worked.

Like that style that Giants played, it was the perfect match for that Patriots team. And I mean, it is crazy, I think. They lost three Super Bowls and two of them were to a Giants team that were what, a wildcard team have. So yeah, yeah, it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that. And like I haven't said since, what, 2012? So once again, it's been pretty, pretty boring, one and two seeds every year pretty much. True story.

I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I was at Sports Illustrated, I fact-checked, as my first job at SI, fact-checked a story about Marv Levy. I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor idol, wrote the story. Then I had to, as a fact-checker, you got to call the subject and basically check every fact in the story. sometimes really intimate details. And so I had that conversation with Marv Levy, and we were both going to be at the Super Bowl.

Forget where it was. The bills weren't in it. And me and him and his wife had a drink, and it was lovely. Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Matt Misch, are you happy? I told that story. Harvard master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest treasures,

and who will be 100 years old during the end of training camp this year. Marve, if you're listening, you're a national treasure, I love you. Class Act all the way. No place else you'd rather be than right here, right now. When it's too tough for them, it's just right. As a reminder of the Favorites podcast

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Terms, conditions, apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern to talk Super Bowl props. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24-7 at 1-800 gambler. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created Our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Will Ferrell's Big Money Players and IHeart Podcast presents soccer moms. So I'm Leanne.

Yeah. This is my best friend. and Janet. Hey. And we have been joined at the hips since high school. Absolutely. A redacted amount of years later, we're still joined at the hip. Just a little bit bigger hips.

This is a podcast. We're recording it as we tailgate our youth soccer games in the back of my Honda Odyssey. With all the snacks and drinks. Why did you get hard seltzer instead of beer? Oh, they had a bogo. Well, then you got it. Listen to soccer moms on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam?

It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Tolodano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was calling it. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to you. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.