The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Todd McShay Talks NFL Draft

Episode Date: April 17, 2025

One of the preeminent NFL Draft experts alive joins Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Todd McShay is a pioneering figure in Draft coverage, with over two decades of mock draft experience. He’s one of the longest-running and most respected Draft voices, and his excellent newsletter The McShay Report has quickly become a must-have for bettors of the NFL Draft. Together the trio discusses potential landing places for quarterback prospects, the prospects with the highest floor, Travis Hunter's chances as a two-way NFL player, and so much more. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I am Chad Milman of the Action Network. Today, I'm joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Hello, Chad. I think I have a fun fact for you today that you're going to love. A couple episodes ago. You called me out for my Irish goodbye at our party.

And if people have ever wondered, what do they call it in England? Because they don't call an Irish goodbye, obviously in England. They call it a backdoor boogie. Really? So I just love the idea of someone turning to their main and saying, yeah, I'm about the backdoor boogie. And then just leave. No such things in Irish goodbye. Did you get that from your mommy?

No, just some British listeners. A diehard fan of ours, my cousin. No way. Yeah, yeah. So I thought that was really clever. Here's what I loved about that event, by the way. So we were there. And I think I told this story.

Did I tell the story about the kid I met from Indiana who had played soccer there, but he grew up in Liverpool. And I told him that you were from Northern England as well. And when I told him where you were from, he looked at me as like, man, that is hardcore. Yeah, it's rough. Old school England right there. Yeah, I told you, anytime I do go, especially because I'm a big guy, like I'm tall and overweight, which is very American, I stick out like you wouldn't believe it.

Like, everyone can just tell I'm American immediately when I'm walking around down there. So yeah, always fun going back home. Here's a fun fact. If we're going to go into fun facts. So, you know, I'm working on this book. And so a lot of my days right now are spent doing so much research. Like if you could see outside the camera. frame, my desk is piled, piled with books about gambling history, including David Schwartz,

roll the bones that we had on earlier in the year, as well as newspaper articles, old photos. I told you I met with the grandson of the guy who invented the point spread, another very famous old school bookie who was a bookmaker with the mob. in the 1930s and 40s, his son sent me piles of newspapers and of clippings and piles of old photos. And like this morning, I was looking at a photo of this dude with three world famous jockeys from the 1930s and 40s at a club in Havana, Cuba, like real old school stuff, right? But one of the facts I read the other day, do you know why it's called handicapping? Do you know why everything we do is called handicapping? I always figured it was if you were wrong, they'd take your knee.

No. The handicapped you. No, it's not. It's not. It's in the 1870s, the guy who ran like the jockey club of England, who was a royal admiral who probably had a name of sir or something or other. Everyone loved horse racing in England, as you know, as we all know. And they were trying to find ways to make the races more even because there would be horses who were really fast and horses that were really slow. And they didn't have odds yet.

And so they were trying to figure out how to make it better for betters. So they would add weights to the fast horses to give them a handicap. And that is how it's called handicapping. That's insane. Isn't that great? Yeah. So that's funny. And then golf took it.

That's interesting. Yes, exactly right. Yeah. Betting has added to the vernacular of sports in so many freaking ways that I am, I've always known, but I'm like unpacking in so many other facets as I go through this research. It's super fun. I can't wait to come to South Jersey and sit with you for the day and tell you everything, and tell you everything I've learned so far.

Looking forward to it, brother. About this history. You know what else I'm looking forward to? We got a big, big guest coming on. This guy is so super famous in the world of draft coverage, revolutionized the game. It can only be one of two people. Okay? I think you know who I'm talking about.

I think the guests or the listeners know. who I'm talking about. We're going to bring them on in a second. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365. And new Bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana. Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1,800 gambler or 1,800 bets off. In Iowa, terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as promised, we are welcoming one of the most prominent media figures when it comes to the NFL draft universe. You can argue that there's only two people that matter in this universe, and he is one of them, one of the longest running and most respected mock drafters anywhere.

You can catch his NFL draft live stream on the McShay show on Spotify and YouTube. You can subscribe to his very excellent draft newsletter, The McShay Report. Welcome to the show, Todd McShay. That was a hell of an intro. I appreciate it, Chad. We like to shine on this show. You know why? We only get like super.

supreme, superior premium guests. So we go big. I appreciate it. So thanks for having me. Thanks for putting me in that short list. What's going on? Congrats on all the success. Congrats on the launch of the show. Congrats on the newsletter. Thank you. I know you've thought a lot about it. I know you worked hard on it. I'm super psyched for you. I'm glad it's working out. I don't want to waste your time. You got like a week before the draft. Every second is precious. You put out a new mock draft. Very bold move predicting a trade. involving the Browns. You mocked the Browns selecting Travis Hunter at number two

and trading up with Atlanta to take Shador Sanders. Do you feel more or less confident about this prediction today? Do you feel confident about getting Sanders' landing position correct being the pivot point of this year's mock process? I would say I feel as or more. confident that Shador Sanders is not going to go in the first nine picks, which is saying a lot because I think a lot of people, including myself early on, thought that the Giants, that was a possibility at three, right? I got off of that pretty quickly and then I think everyone still to

this day is saying, well, the Saints make a lot of sense. He doesn't have the big arm. He can play in a dome. That division of good weather. Kellan Moore. I look at it this way. And I've, I've got sources as well, but my initial reaction to that was Kellyn, quarterback coaches and offensive coordinators and offensive-minded coaches. They get used to and they kind of structure what they want to do around what they've worked with and what's been successful. He's been successful as an offensive coordinator in three different places, right? It's been with Dak Prescott in Dallas.

It's been with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. And it's been with Jalen Hertz in Philadelphia. That's not Shador, man. that's just, you know, Shadour would fit with Cleveland. And the reason why I had Cleveland trading up, and we'll get to that in a second, like Kevin Stefansky is won with that kind of guy. He won like 10 to 11 games with guys who didn't have big time arms, including most recently Kirk Cousins.

You know, not the biggest, not the strongest arm, not the most mobile. But what makes them successful, it's fast processing. Very accurate throwing the ball all around the field. So I like Cleveland and Shadour is amazing. marriage in terms of what the coaches used to and what the coaches had success with at the quarterback position. But as we get closer to the draft, I think Jackson Dart is the guy the Saints want. And it's because of those things I just mentioned.

Jackson Dart is a sturdy, mobile, stronger armed quarterback, right? I don't think a quarterback's going to go in the top nine. Now, the Derek Carr situation with the shoulder, curious timing, that may speed up the process for the Saints. Lucas, the GM there, has a track record of targeting a player he wants and giving up whatever he has to get, give up to go get him. So I envision a scenario in which we're looking at this, and now all of a sudden, Shador Sanders and Jackson Dart are still available at 10. And now the clock is ticking. And I think everyone in the league is well aware of Mike Tomlin and his

affection for Shador Sanders and would like to get him at 21, but they don't have a second round pick. And I don't know they're willing to give up more draft capital to go up and get Shador. And we'll find out what happens with Aaron Rogers. So I think everyone in the league that has interest in those two quarterbacks is looking at say, at 21, we've got to get up ahead of that. But we can wait it out and we don't want to move in the top 10 and give away next year's first round pick. So if it's the Giants or the Browns, I think somewhere in that 10 to 20 range would be the area they would move up. And I went with Atlanta because Atlanta has the second fewest picks in the entire draft with five. But we'll see how it all plays out. I can see Shadour going.

somewhere in that 10 to 20 range of team moving up, starting to feel like it might be the Giants more so, but we'll see how that plays out. And then I could see Jackson Dart a team trading up with Minnesota. Minnesota only has four picks in the entire draft and trying to get up ahead of Cleveland or the Giants, whoever's sitting there 33, 34. And I think New Orleans could be that team to do it. All right. So I have two quick follow-ups. I know Simon wants to jump in with a very important quarterback question. Number one, I just want to clarify, either I misheard you, Or you just said you don't think any quarterbacks will go in the top nine. No, no, no, no.

I misspoke if I said that. Cam Ward's going number one. You can write that down. Got it. Got it. And it's Sharpie, yes. I meant any of the other quarterbacks. Got it.

Number two, if you're the Browns and you've got the second pick, we had this conversation in Simon and I the other day with one of our guests. Why wouldn't you go for Sador Sanders there? if what you need the most is a quarterback. And Travis Hunter, you could be reaching for a cornerback at number two or reaching for a guy who is a dynamic athlete, but maybe not a brilliant receiver yet at number two. Travis Hunter is brilliant.

Okay. At wide receiver and at cornerback. You can't pass on that. I actually, I looked this up this morning. I'm pulling up my phone. A lot, I've heard a lot of people say with the Giants and the Browns, you know, the possibility of like the cake and eat at two scenario, kind of like Nick Casario did recently,

where he took CJ at two and moved up to get Will Anderson. Different circumstances, in my opinion. I think this scenario could play out more like we've seen in the past. Lamar Jackson would be like the glass half full scenario where the Browns took their tight end early in the first round, thought the night was over. All of a sudden, Lamar's sitting there, they get an opportunity, they trade into 32,

and they take Lamar Jackson there. But I want to remind people, and this is what I looked up. This is why I'm looking down at my phone here, okay? Good research. Johnny Mansell, Browns took him at 22 overall in 2014, after they took Justin Gilbert at 8. Brandon Whedon, the Browns are three of the four examples here. Brandon Weeden, also at 22 in 2012.

After they took Trent Richardson at number three. Brady Quinn, also at number 22 for the Browns, back in 2007. after they took Joe Thomas at three. The Ravens, Kyle Bowler at 19, into 2003, after they took Terrell Suggs. So I say all that, if you don't have a grade that's equivalent to one of those picks, you have to take a,

these are premium positions, corner wide receiver. He could solve problems on both sides of the ball and be an instant impact player on the offensive side. Travis Hunter could be for the Browns. That's what they expect. Abdul Carter, best pass rusher, premium position, Premium picket number three. And then, yeah, you try to move back up and go get your guy.

But history tells us more often than not, when you don't have the grade where you're like, absolutely, we're picking. I mean, they have massive needs for the future of these organizations. If they love Shador Sanders enough, this would be a moot point. The information would be leaking out everywhere. They don't. So you don't reach for a quarterback and pass up on a future Joe Thomas or a Terrell Suggs. You've sufficiently put me in my place. Go ahead, Simon.

Just really quick, I would love to know the view though on Travis Hunter of what is his ceiling. So like in your mind, you're taking him here at number two. You need him to be what, a top 25 receiver, a top 25 corner because people like me who are just huge NFL fans, I just don't know how it works. Like I'm trying to wrap my head around him going up against Kyle Hamilton, getting knocked out, getting back up and then going out there and trying to cover herself. in a couple of plays where it's just like, if he goes to the AFC North, he doesn't survive a season where to me, they have Miles Garrett and they could get Carter.

Why just do it? You're in a division with Joe Burrow. This feels like such a Brown's pick taking Travis Hunter here. And it's like, you know, we all get sucked into the moment. I get it. But he's a big 12 player,

Y receiver and quarterback, and now he's going to be the number two pick. I would love to hear your view on the Browns. Why not just take Carter, play it safe? They're going for a really, like we say a unicorn, what is, what do you think he needs to do to prove to be a number two pick? What is his upside wide receiver and cornerback? What if I told you that you're,

you're going to be able to the number two pick in this draft to draft Shohei Atani? Wow. But you felt like Shohei. Okay, but my point is this. Like, show hey is a freak genetically. This kid is a freak. I have seen the tape. He's a freak genetically too.

Yeah, I agree. Listen, I only say that for devil's advocate, right? because these are the conversations that are going on. It's not a stamina thing. Like, we can erase that. Because the two questions of playing both sides in the NFL, which has never been done before. I don't want to hear the Champ Bailey stuff.

I don't want to hear the Charles Woods and stuff. They had like a combined six or seven catches in their careers. Yeah, Desmond Howard's been thrown out there. Doesn't work. Dion, Prime, Coach Prime, was the closest thing too. And he still only had like 60 career catches in that long NFL career. Yes, the return game. No one's done this.

the durability part, I'm with you. It becomes a load management thing. Now, talking to coaches and talking to people in the league early on in the process, the simple thinking was like there's 10 other guys on the defensive side you've got to communicate with. Like if we're playing cover one or cover two or cover three or quarters or cover six. Like we can't have this guy only come into like half the meetings and not understanding what we're trying to do conceptually. And I get that part. But then as we've gotten closer to the draft, and I think as general manager,

have gotten involved in offensive coaches have gotten involved like yeah what are you going to do you're going to draft this guy and you're not going to give him to me as a full-time offensive player you're not going to allow him to be a weapon he's got the best ball skills of receiver i can i can think of in the last like decade and that's when no one talks about like it it starts with he he's going to catch everything in his area and then the after the catch stuff and the explosiveness so people have been up into chad johnson do you like that comp i see garrett yeah i don't mind it Garrett Wilson, I see a lot of too. Like, you think about Garrett, I don't want to say,

I just proud, but like when things were going well just two years ago, like Garrett Wilson was one of the stars in the NFL. I think that's what he can be on offense. Now, how do you then overcome the, maybe he's not in every meeting? Maybe we just do things differently in the league. Maybe he can be in both meetings. Maybe we figure out the schedule where he can do both.

Maybe we figure out how to not flood him and we can use him in sub-packages and red zone. And yes, he's not going to be your every down. he's not going to be like Christian Gonzalez was with the Patriots step in, shut down corner all. But maybe he can provide that. Like it took the Jets two picks to get Garrett Wilson and...

Sauce. Yeah, sauce Gardner. So it took two picks. You're not going to get quite that, but could you imagine with one pick to get somewhere close to that kind of impact that they had for that first year, rookies for the Jets?

You're in the know. It's a done deal, Travis Hunter, too? I don't want to say it's a done deal. Because this is a betting show. People can bet on this. So right now you get over, it's a good number. Yeah, I get that. But I wouldn't do anything but bet on Travis Hunter.

They're the only reason for reservation is the Browns, Andrew Barry's notorious in circles for misleading people. So like, there's plenty of other bets. I've looked. I've been on Fanduel. I've been running, you know, I'm looking around. My friends are calling and texting and there's plenty of other bets where the odds are better.

But if you're just looking like, you feel really good about getting the money, I would take that. I would take Carter it. What's Carter? Like minus 300 now? I said last week, I was like, take him it. It's not going to get better than minus 200 for number three with the Giants. I still would take that there. Yeah, I'm just hoping the owner of Cleveland talks to another homeless guy in the way the stadium before the draft and make some draft pick that way. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

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Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.

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one of the toughest tests in tennis and i know firsthand because i competed there myself i'm rene stubbs and on the rene stubbs tennis podcast i'm breaking down everything happening at roland garris every match every upset and what it really takes to win on clay jen chen jen jen jen i mean she went down to three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lena Rubakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface.

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So people are hammering that because, you know, Milrow now getting a ton of steam. People are really talking about him. That teams, you know, the Browns, if they do take, like you said, Travis Hunter, they're a team that pick 33, then moving back in the first round taking this kid makes sense. You know, we've all heard dart with the Saints. I can't imagine. I'm going to cut you off. I'm sorry, but I love this stuff.

Let's just bounce back. I've got a bunch of things on my mind because I was looking through Fanduil yesterday. So I get it. It was like minus three something yesterday. So you're saying it's mine $4.50. Yeah, it's moving. So if you have the money in the bank, just go put it down because I can't see a scenario in which three don't come off the board. Now, if you told me it was, the overrunner was three and a half, I'd lean under.

But I think the saints sitting there at 40, even if you get to pick like 23, 24, 25 and all of a sudden there's only two quarterbacks off the board. Let's say Shadour fell to 21 or a team moved up to get. Because of the concept that the Browns are at 33 and this is why I've never seen, I've been doing this 25 years, I have never seen four quarterbacks travel the country or organizations fire up their private jet and travel all around the country to work out like the arms are tired of Jackson, Dart, Shadour Sanders, Jalen Milrow and Tyler Shep. So, and the reason they're tired is these teams are trying to figure out picking it 33, 34, the Saints at 40.

Then you got to remember, too, there's the Raiders sitting there early in the second round. The Jets may have their eye on a Jackson dart. So, like, there's enough concern that, okay, we just flew all around the country. We just worked out these guys. The last thing we did in the scouting process is with these quarterbacks, I love this guy. So you're going to just sit there and hope that that guy's waiting for you overnight coming into Friday, I just don't see it happening. So yeah, it's going to cost you a lot of money, but I can't imagine a scenario in which we don't have three quarterbacks in the first round.

How often do you, as an expert, who goes to a lot of the events where there are private workouts and group workouts and, you know, senior days, et cetera, et cetera, but also watch it as an ignored an amount of film on all these guys. Do you change your mind after the season and after having seen all this tape and all this development. Because my feeling is that there is a little bit of forgetting what people have seen on tape and falling in love with what they see in real life in these private workouts that are not the same as a game. And it becomes a little bit of recency bias. Yeah, there's just so much nuance with the quarterback position. I think people have gotten to see the Combine workouts and the Pro Day workouts. And

they're staged. I mean, the combine isn't staged, but it's the same throws. It's, you know, trying to time it out with these receivers, so you're not trying to throw with anticipation. The difference with this is, you bring your offensive coordinator,

you bring your quarterback coach, you also bring your owner, you have dinner with him the night before, and yes, there's part of it where sometimes too much emphasis can go, like, I just love this guy, I want to work with him, the human being. I get that part.

But there's also a, the install process and testing their mind. And so much of this position, which is different than most than all the other positions in terms of the level that you need to have, is the recall, thinking on the fly, how quickly you process. And it's not perfect.

You know, it's not apples to apples to a game situation, but you can test them. And I think that's the part when you're doing these private workouts, it's just as much about the brain and the timing of the operation as it is. He's got a strong arm. Stronger than I thought on tape.

you know, like that part gets overrated because it's what the public gets to see versus what the public. I've never been to a private workout. You know, like scouts haven't been to the private workouts. It's the GM, the head coach, the offensive coordinator, and they're very, very much tailored to what they're looking for. In your opinion, right now, who is the safest draft prospect this year? that word is tough i mean highest floor how about highest floor highest floor highest floor is tyler warren there's there's no real durability concern you can see here's a thing if you can wash out if he stays healthy because you can say that for every prospect but there's greater risk with

certain ones and we all know um i don't know that his ceiling is necessarily as high as some of the other guys that will get drafted right near him or after him i think colston lovelin has a chance to maybe have a bigger yards per catch. And I don't want to say catch more passes, but, but more explosive and create bigger opportunities in the past game because he's a little bit more sudden, twitchy, best route runner of the tight ends. But I just don't see a scenario in which Warren, a healthy Warren fails. Like, I like first downs, man.

This guy's a first down machine, whether it's, you know, eight, nine yards and just turn around and grind out the last two or three, or if it's a three-yard little screen to him or just a quick hook to him and then he's able to run after the catch. I'm not saying he's Gronk, but he's like the closest thing we've seen in a while since Gronk. I think he's going to be that kind of player.

Now, someone that's followed you from a long time just because, like, I bet big money in the draft, always have, always like to find edges. And you do move markets because people trust your opinion. I mean, you know, you've, you know, you've been around a long time. You did say today, briefly, Genti, Patriots,

I would love to know more about that because that moved the market. Like, you don't even realize that it moved the market that people are like, oh my God, I didn't mean the top five pick. And if that does happen, that's crazy about.

Again, you know, it's probably not going to happen. It's more likely they're going to go Will Campbell or who knows how the draft falls. But I just thought that was interesting that, you know, this is a guy that started out outside top 10. Now everyone's giving them a love to the Raiders. you mentioned the Patriots.

Is that something that's like real? Or is that just they're enamored with the athlete that he is? Here's the interesting part of the conversations I have. I'm never calling Mike Vrable and be like, Mike, who you're taking? Right. So it's always another GM or a personnel director who I talked to, because everyone's talking to everyone now in league circles.

And the conversation is never, never with anyone. Even like Joe Douglas, I played college football with, family friends, all of it, like never once, one time ever, never would. It's like absurd. Be like, Joe, who are you taking with that pick? You know, like, it's just not how this thing goes. So it's a lot of information, like, hey, someone who's a little lower ranking, maybe say, like, hey, there is discussion in the building.

Like, Gentie thing, Genti's still on. And sometimes those people aren't in that final, like, two or three human beings that are in the room. There's a board that's set for the whole staff, right? and then there's the real board. And that's most organizations. So it's sometimes a little leak will come out like, don't close the book. Like I get the call, like, don't close the book on Shador.

I'm not sure what's going on, but they're still having discussions in Giants facilities, something about Shador. Don't know if that means later. So that's what's going on now. The Jinty thing's interesting because I haven't talked to a person in the league that doesn't have him in the top five in terms of grades. And the vast majority of people I talk to have him at three. They think he's the third best player in this draft,

just behind Hunter and Carter, okay? But ahead of Mason Graham and Tyler Warren and Jalen Walker and those guys. Okay. So I can see how as you get closer, you're like, I don't know, like he's so special. He's got a chance to be different. But then I look at the Patriot situation. I'm like, yeah, Sequeon is awesome with the Eagles.

but what was he with the Giants when they couldn't you know what I mean so I think that's a lot of the discussion going on I've just heard a couple nuggets that make me I'm not to the like I got felica calling me the bear all the time and we're going back and forth and Stanford Steve my my long time buddy all by degenerate friends up here in Boston like I spend more time on this stuff than I should but I love it because it's fun and like trying to figure out all the maze and the puzzle but it's one of those, like if the line's ridiculous, maybe you put a dollar on it. Like maybe you put a couple dollars versus putting $100 or a thousand, you know, but it's worth like, who knows?

Maybe I just am getting the sense whether it's New England at four, Jaguars at five, there's a little bit more buzz than I expected to hear at this point in time. I'll say this. I'm totally changing course here. But I was shocked yesterday when I looked. And again, I'm not saying. it's like a guarantee or I have solid information and go with this race in now before the line changes. But I was really interested to see Warren is plus 700 to the Jets. Like you might want to

yeah, write that. I see you with a pen. You might want to write that one. By the way, not a pen. He's betting it at it. Good. Yeah, he's down a plus 300. I tweeted that out yet last night. And the gentie, I bet it when you talked about, he was 20 to 1. It's down to 16 to 1 him to go to the Patriots. So I got to shut up. I'm telling you, you move markets. It's crazy. It's the only thing in the, it's the only time anything in my entire life, including like day-to-day chores that anyone listens to me.

So we'll go with it. It's so funny, Todd. We had Felica on a few weeks ago. We had Stanford on a few weeks before that. Everybody's talking to the same fucking people. We're all talking and texting with each other. It's freaking hilarious. I do what.

Felica owes me like a vacation at some point after the last three years. I'm just going to say that. Well, I'll let him know. I'm going to text him with this clip right now. Yeah, please. He can put it in his Todd McShay fund. How do you figure out? He's the best. I mean, I owe him more than he owes me.

Let's put it that way. But yeah. How do you figure out all these smoke signals from all these GMs? And they know not only that you're calling and getting information from them, but they will potentially be trying to use you as a conduit to get information, but also they might say something to you that you could be sharing with somebody else in a sort of informal way. How do you know what to use for real in a mock versus what's someone trying to throw you off the scent?

You get to, I've been burned before, but I haven't been totally burned in a while. And I was burned before because I was young and still developing relationships. And it's like any business, you learn who you can trust and you learn who you can't. And you develop relationships. And again, no one say we're definitely, even if, even when I've had conversations, when it's kind of narrowed down and it's never directly said, we're either going to take this guy or this guy. But you, when you get done with 45 minutes on the phone with the decision maker of an organization, you get a sense just as you're going through boards and having discussions.

And honestly, it's rarely the answer. It's usually the question that's asked of me that tips me off. Oh, they're thinking this. Why is he asking me about this player? Why is he asking me about this team that picks three spots ahead? You know what I mean? That's where you just get a sense. And it's like this little dance that goes on.

But here's the other part, too. GMs don't know, they know who they want. They know how their board is, but they don't know what's coming to them. You know, so there's no, I won one time, I think it was a bar stool I went on, right? And I'll never forget, I did this, we're going back and forth.

And they were just, you know, it was a part of my take us. And they're like, let's do a contest. If anyone could ever, what would you put up if someone could get a perfect mock draft? I said, I'll put up a million dollars right now. I'll put up a million. dollars, right? Like, it is literally impossible. If you got all 32 GMs in a room and they did a

mock draft and they shared information, it still would be different. And so then the next day, I go into a production meeting before the draft, and I've got one of my one of the executives at ESPN, you're always causing problems. Like, now we've got, now we've got, we've got legal contacting me. Like, do we need to get, take out insurance? I'm like, no, stop, stop. It was a joke. But my point was there's no way to know definitively because one trade, one team picks something that you don't expect and it throws everything off. But I do like the numbers where it's like how many of these position in the first round? Or if you're looking at a team and the numbers ridiculous,

like even the bears, I think it was like plus 3.30 yesterday for a tight end. I think those two tight ends could go. Jets, bears, Warren Loveland in that order. I really do. And I think you could get pretty good money on that. Before we let you get out of here, Simon wants the last question. Yeah. Yeah, I got to get my bias.

And as an Eagles fan, locally I'm hearing from guys that I respect that Eagles are basically dead set on a tight end. And the fact of Dallas got her, you know, last year of his deal, he's above the age of 30. Guy has a hard, tough time staying on the field. Is it a guarantee that they trade down and take one or trade up and get on these tight ends? Do you think that this is a deep enough class that you wouldn't touch that market? You don't know what I was going to do at that end of the pick. It's not worth betting on them taking a tight end there. Yeah, I said Mason Taylor to them a few weeks ago.

And as just kind of like keep an eye on this. And I feel like that's starting to grow that concept. And I do think it's something how he would do. I don't see him moving up for Mason Taylor. If one of these defensive linemen start to fall, you've got seven guys at the edge position. If one of them starts to fall, you've got like five guys

interior defensive line. I could see maybe up two, three spots, something like that. I think he's more likely to move back out of that spot. If he's looking at it, he's like, wait, there's still a quarterback or two. I've got the Browns,

the Giants sitting there. There's two interior defensive linemen and Mason Taylor. I can probably move back three, four, five spots and still get that same player and pick up a third. rounder or what a third fourth rounder. So I could envision that. I do like Mason Taylor there. It makes a lot of sense. It's a Howie guy. But they also, you know, you got Malachi Stark's and Nick E. Menwry.

Safety is a position they could address interior and addresser. We know, no, even if they don't have a need, they could go there. And this class is loaded. So once again, even if you just stay home at 32, which Howie is pretty incapable of doing him, if anyone who knows him. But if they stay home at that spot, someone's going to fall to them there. And so that'll be interesting to see. All right. Todd McShay, if there were a Hall of Fame for NFL draft analysts, Todd McShay would be in the inaugural class.

That is why you must subscribe to his newsletter, the McShay report. Catch the NFL Draft YouTube live stream on Thursday. Next Thursday on the McShay show. Todd, excellent work. As always, good luck. This is fun, guys. We'll have to revisit and hopefully we made some money and didn't lose anyone money today.

Well, listen, Felica's got to buy a new house. So let's hope it works out for it. Take care, guys. Thank you. All right. Thanks, Todd. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet365 and new Bet365 customers. Get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5 sign up using promo code favorites.

Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800 gambler or 1,800 bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, 1.30 p.m. Eastern talking NFL draft with

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