The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks
Episode Date: July 18, 2025A hotly contested episode every summer, today's show will upset plenty of listeners. Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter have compiled their Top 10 lists of the best quarterbacks in the... NFL and are ready to defend them to the death. They are assisted by very special guest, fantasy expert Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis. Rich provides a third-party voice of reason to this episode every year, as Simon and Chad debate the merits of the NFL's preeminent household names. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome to the favorites, the podcast, part of the volume podcast network.
I am Chad Milman of the Action Network.
We're finally getting close to kick off for the 2025 NFL season.
We're going to begin our series of preview shows.
We're going to lead into our division by division, betting breakdowns that begin at the end of this month.
Before we get to that, Simon and I always do a couple of table-setter episodes to frame what we think when it comes to a variety of betting and fantasy topics.
Today we're going to do an annual summer episode, which always invites snickering and debate,
mainly the snickering is from Matt Mitchell, who just said that every year for this episode,
I do something that I think he said that should put me in jail.
I know this year will be no different before I introduce the topic.
Let me bring in my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
Hello, Simon.
Chad, back from Vegas. How you doing, brother?
Dude, guy in very late last night.
not planning on getting in late last night.
And then I sat in, by the way,
I'll turn in a laugh at the Philadelphia airport
for more than three hours,
waiting for my connection.
And I flew from Vegas to Philly.
And in my row,
I ended up sitting next to a very elderly woman
who only had one leg.
And I was, you know, it's like,
she couldn't leave her seat.
so I would climb over her to get in and out.
All good, lovely woman, great conversation.
But she played her Instagram reels on full blast for the first 45 minutes from the time we boarded until like, you know, we were connected to Wi-Fi and she was playing it into the flight.
And like, that's just a trigger for me.
You know, like people playing their phones at full blast.
And I had to hold my tongue because I didn't want to be the dude asking a very nice older woman to please put on some headphones or turn down her phone.
See, I'm such a psycho.
I would have turned to and be like, are you excited about meeting the Grim Reaper?
Because you're about to if you keep listening to this music at full blast.
I held my tongue.
I was gonna ask you if you did any of the World Chairs of Poker stuff, but I'm guessing you were busy, but
the whole poker world chat is ablaze by this guy, Will Khalifa, which is basically what you're just talking about right now, annoying people.
This guy was super loud for about two days.
He took over the internet.
I mean, everyone's going crazy right now.
The World Chairs of Poker is one guy.
Luckily, he got knocked out.
The final tables tomorrow.
Absolute legend.
The Grindr, which if you're an old gambler, if you love poker,
this guy is the definition of a degenerate gambler.
He's like a legend from back in the day.
He made the final table, which is awesome.
And I have a little bet on him.
I had another bet on a guy named Tony Greggs
who got knocked out right for the final table.
So yeah, it's been really fun, honestly.
I know you're not the biggest poker guy.
It's you obviously, you're writing a book right now.
You've got other shit going on.
Me, I got nothing going on.
So I've just been watching 12 hours nonstop poker
until 4 or 5 in the morning.
And yeah, it's crazy.
The grinder, man, from back in the day.
And a woman made it.
First woman to make Final Table.
I believe she's Spanish.
Marjettes, I believe is her name.
She's so good.
So, yeah, really, really great final table.
I think it airs tomorrow.
So, yeah, it's been really fun.
I actually, I wanted to go on Saturday.
There were two events on Saturday that I wanted to go to and didn't get to.
But what's weird about this, you mentioned I'm working on this book.
And I got there Friday.
night. I landed at 5 o'clock. It was 107 degrees when I got to my hotel. And I immediately turned
around and I went out to dinner speaking of books with Joe Lupo. So old heads of the show
who are listening forever will know that Joe Lupo 25 years ago when I wrote The Odds was the
bookmaker at the Stardust Hotel. He was one of the main characters along with Bob Scucci who
worked for Joe and Alan Boston when I wrote the odds.
Joe now is like, you know, one of the most powerful executives in Vegas.
And he has been charged with building the new hard rock hotel that is going to have the 625 foot guitar in place where the mirage used to be because they just tore the mirage down.
He went out there, was in charge of Mirage in order to close it down.
And now they are building the hard rock there.
Joe and I went to Nobu and we sit down and they're like,
hello, Mr. Lupo, good to see you again, Mr. Lupo.
I'm like, this guy, he was just some schmuck sitting in the back office at the
Stardust and now he's got a table at Nobu, which makes no sense.
But here's what's interesting to me.
I've been working on in this book for six months, right?
It's essentially a sequel to the odds.
Like how is this world changed?
Obviously, Simon, I'm talking to you.
There's a lot of other professional betters I'm talking to.
I've made 13 trips.
I've been to Philly, Lexington, Kentucky, New Orleans, Chicago.
Obviously, I've been to New York and New Jersey, Boston, Costa Rica.
First trip in six months of reporting that I made to Vegas.
When I did the odds, I literally lived in Vegas for six months.
now it's like you don't you don't really need to even go there that's how much this world has
changed it's it's totally totally wild yeah and i i told you that a long time ago it's now there's
not many people left still in Vegas a lot of them are above the age of 50 there are some young blood
that like Vegas right they like that lifestyle but i would say that was my favorite part of legalization
i've talked to about this like that day it got legalized i was out the fucking door
far packed, all my shit, left half my clothes there,
because I just wanted to get out of Vegas
and back their jersey and start setting up.
So yeah, it's, some people love the dry heat
and they love Vegas.
I need to see trees and grass.
It's the northeast in me.
Like I can't just be in the desert day and day out.
So yeah, I told you, it's different there though.
And that's why I love going there
because it's like, it's a time period.
And the guys there are just so old school
and so knowledgeable.
Anytime I go to Vegas, it's always a great time.
I did, I had a nice time.
I spent some time with the guys at Circa.
with Derek Stevens, the owner of Circa and Jeff Benson, who's the bookmaker there.
And then I went to Summer League.
I sat with Daryl Morey from the Sixers, you know, who's the president of GM of the Sixers, Simon.
I watched the whole game with him.
It was phenomenal.
At the end of the game, they were playing Charlotte and they were down by three.
And they had a guy in the free throw line with 10 seconds left.
And he made the first free throw with Daryl and another scout, who he's known forever,
who we were sitting with, started having this really interesting conversation about what the positive
of EV play was, should he make the free throw,
should he miss the free throw?
And to hear two NBA professionals
sort of talk about what is the right play
considering where they were in the game
with 10 seconds left, even though it was a summer league game
and how they think about it,
it was awesome. It was totally awesome.
Some of the guys in the Sixers,
it was all right, Simon. They did.
Listen, on our next episode,
you and I are going to dig into the fantasy preview
with Chris Raybunning and Schuartner.
today it's time for our favorite rankings episode of the year that always gets somebody yelling at me
it's our very official completely scientific top 10 NFL QBs list and reminder unlike the silly
lists other experts do this is primarily based from a betting point of view at least for you and me
and I'll remind everyone to check out the clips and highlights from the shows that we are doing as we get
football, go to my YouTube page at Real Chad Millman.
As we do, every summer we are going to bring in.
Rich Rebar, aka Lord Reeves on X.
He's going to give us the gut check on our QB list.
He does a brilliant job analyzing the NFL at Sharp Football Analysis.
Everyone should go pick up their copy of the Sharp Football.
analysis 2025. Preview, Warren Sharp sent me my copy, Simon. I've been digging in. Welcome, Rich.
Yeah, what is going on, guys? I look forward to this every year. It's, you know, funny you're
talking about Vegas. I have two quick anecdotes. One, I'd like to know how much Uno you're ready to play.
I saw that. You know, two, by my oldest son turns 21 in February. And we've been kind of
plotting out that, you know, hey, first week of March Madness will go to Vegas. There's first
trip, right? And he's just like, what, what can I do there that I can't already do? Like,
it was the same thing. Wow. It's kind of laid out. Like, it was just like, oh, man, you don't even
know. But like, he's not even excited, like, not even excited about it where, you know, it used to be
like such a destination, like it was such an adult playland. And now he's just like, well, I could bet.
I just bet at home. God, that is so interesting that he said that. Yeah. I was going to
right. I got him. So you don't know about the bunny ranch, clearly.
You know, it's so, it's like, they used to have the cars that drove around on the strip.
Oh, yeah.
With like the billboards.
Yeah.
Different time.
The escorts that you could call.
And then on every corner, they had the kiosks that had like the magazines with all the ads for every escort.
And those things would get littered all over the street.
That's what I was going to say. That's my memory of it.
After losing all my money, walking to the corner,
knowing I don't have any money to get a ride back, so I got to walk.
And I'm out there, and I just see it in the streets, all that, just shredded up, call numbers.
Yeah.
So what's interesting is there's none of that anymore.
And I was walking down Las Vegas Boulevard.
And, you know, I was going to get an espresso, actually a double macchiato, Simon,
at the Italy that is at the party.
MGM. And there was one little card with like a woman and her picture and a number and reminded me of
one of the times I was in Vegas doing a story about sports betting or something for E60.
The producer I was with called one of the numbers on the driving, on the billboards on one
of the things, left a message but left my cell phone number.
And for like four days after that, I'm getting calls from lovely ladies.
Rich, that could be your son.
If he needs a number, I can forward it for him.
Yeah, we got to get these kids outside more now, you know?
I guess so.
I got to get them out and experience life a little bit more.
I'm trying to encourage it.
But I'm still going to twist his hour and make him go.
That's fucking shameful that he said that.
I don't even know if he deserves to go anymore.
Make him go to fucking New Jersey.
He can go to the Meadowland.
No, it's how much fun that is.
It's like one of my old favorite memes.
My daughters get stressed out about going into Wendy's and ordering food.
When I was 15, I was taking my mom's car and driving into Philly.
Yeah.
Like, it's just totally different worlds where it's like everyone just very, very different
than it was back in the day.
People aren't as crazy think.
Fucking coddled and lazy.
Coddled and lazy, Rich.
All right, listen, we're going to go through this.
Matt Mitchell, we didn't actually talk about an order in advance.
So, do you want to go last?
Mine's definitely going to be the last.
the most back and forth list.
All right.
Why don't I go first and then Rich goes next
so then we can see like how different his than mine
and then we can get a pressure check from you.
So I'm going to go first.
Here was my process, okay?
I looked at the following stats.
Just examined how the quarterbacks lined up ranked
in recent memory, recent past for these stats,
me are indicative of they're the most important stats as you analyze a quarterback. I looked at
EPA, expected points added, EPA per dropback, which for those who don't know, that basically
just gets rid of a lot of the messiness when you're examining EPA. I looked at total sacks,
and then I looked at QB pressure rate, which basically tries to identify when quarterbacks
are holding the ball too long, making bad decisions, putting themselves in a position to be
sacked outside of something being the fault of the offensive line. And then I looked at fourth
down conversion. Okay. Then I asked Claude from Anthropic AI to give me a list of the best
QBs accounting for the above criteria from 2024 and for seasons 2022 to 2024. Then I compared
all my my list that I made to Claude, it was really close.
There was a difference of like one or two.
And then I did sort of a gut check test on who I don't want or do want to have the ball
in any late game betting situation.
Okay.
So are you read?
I got some controversy here.
Start at 10.
Start at 10.
I'm starting at 10.
I got a listed in 10.
Okay.
Number 10.
Baker Mayfield.
Baker was on the edge of my list the whole time.
And then when I did all the stuff,
like he was like to me 9, 10, 11, 9, 10, 11,
and he was dropping in and out.
When I just did it off the top of my head looking at these stats,
and then when I did it with AI,
Baker for 24 and for 2022 to 2020, 24,
was in the top 10 for both.
He was 10th.
So that solidified.
for me. We're locked in, Chad. We're both Baker guys. I got Baker at 10 too.
All right. Fucking A. That wasn't one I was most worried about. Okay.
I know that I'm going to walk a dive in it. He was, I'm with you. He was a really tough one.
Because like all these quarterbacks, people that don't like them, they can give you good reasons.
You can agree with it. But like me, like I'm agreeing with you. There's a lot of reasons to like
Baker and the numbers back it up. And also just watch them play. Anyone that watches them play,
you know that the right offense. Yeah, exactly. So I'm right there with you at 10.
All right. Number nine. This is a little controversial.
And part of what I'm doing here is I'm projecting what I think is going to happen.
I put Brock Purdy at 9.
Purdy again, like he was sort of 10, 11, 12 for me.
And I put him at 9 because he deserves to be in there based on the metrics and what I prioritized.
But also, he was there when I ran it through AI.
and I'm thinking about what my expectations are for him in this upcoming season.
Okay.
Number eight, Justin Herbert.
I'm a little bit off Herbert.
He's so good and so talented.
And even last year he was great.
And he was in the top 10 for all these things.
But he to me was sort of on the bubble.
Seven, I had Jared Goff.
Six, I had Jaden Daniels.
five i had jalen hertz four joe burrow three lamar two josh allen one patrick mahomes and if you looked at just the stats and took out
any sort of betting metrics any sort of historical precedent when it comes to making gambling decisions
your one, two, or three would be Burrough Lamar, Josh Allen
in any combination of those orders just based on the stats.
Mahomes would be four, going back to 2022,
if you include all those three seasons.
But he's earned it, and he's still going to be a guy
who you never want to bet against.
And in fact, this year you might get a little bit of value
because of how it went down in the Super Bowl.
So that's why Mahomes was number one to me.
on my outside looking in
Stafford 11
2a 12
C.J. Stroud
13.
Tua, every
single metric
he would be up there
because of the offense he plays in.
You just don't have any faith of him.
You don't have any faith in the dolphins.
But it's hard to ignore him
completely. I didn't put him in the top 10
even though statistically he would be in the top 10
probably 7, 8, 9, just because of the betting stuff and because, you know, I have a lot less
faith in him than I do and say Baker or even Brock Purdy. So that's it. That's it. Matt Mitchell said
he thinks I should be in jail for some of these things. I'm very, listen, as they say,
feedback is a gift. I'm open to feedback. Rich, Rich, would you like to give me some feedback?
I don't have a ton of real pushback, to be honest.
You know, my list has a lot of overlap to yours.
My criteria has always been if we were just reshuffling the NFL and doing like a fantasy
draft, these are the orders I would pick the quarterbacks to win me a Super Bowl this
year.
Like this is the order that I would take them.
And I had a hard time like you, you know, who is the number 10, right?
Like who's the cutoff?
Who are we leaving off?
And I had a lot of guys in consideration.
and Baker was on my list.
It was Baker, Gough, and Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud
based on, like, kind of the criteria.
And I kind of just thought I had, I would have Stroud there based on like the career arc.
So he, he slid into my 10.
I think that I gave him the benefit of the doubt that he would play in a tougher conference than Baker and Jared Gough.
And has playoff wins in both of his first two years in the NFL on imperfect teams.
I mean, a ton of wide receiver injuries, offensive line play has been a question.
I just think from a talent perspective, even though he took.
took a step back last year.
He's still a player in the long run.
This is a guy you still want leading your football teams.
So that's why I kind of just gave him the benefit of the doubt.
But, you know, golf and Baker and Love were kind of all in consideration there.
And like you, I also have Brock Purdy 9.
I think last year solidified like the Brock Purdy like kind of argument for me.
I know that it'll never go away.
But, you know, last year, because the first few years Brock Purdy's career, you know,
essentially like, oh, how much is this Kyle Shanahan?
How much is this all his weaponry?
Well, last year at the 40s.
Niners ran 57 total plays with McCaffrey, Iuk, Deepo, Samuel, and George Kittle all in the field together with Brock Purdy.
Trent Williams missed seven games.
And Brock Purdy, despite all of that, fifth and EPA per dropback, third and yards surpassed him, fourth in success rate.
He took the offense and tried to carry it as far as he could, you know, last year.
So I think he's solidified from a talent perspective.
Like, he's not Garoppolo.
Like, this is a guy that creates out of structure he can create on his own.
And that kind of locked him in for me.
I have Stafford eight.
I just think you just look at Stafford, like, you know, the two playoff losses he has at the Rams, a one point loss to Detroit.
And then last year they have the ball in the 13 yard line in Philly with a shot to win before Jalen Carter wrecks him.
So, I mean, Stafford still gets the benefit out for me.
I have Herbert seven.
I've been, the three years we've done this, I've been kind of like the lone supporter of Justin Herbert, it feels like.
I've been the one that's like tried to keep him, you know, in the mix here and been supportive of him.
Then I have Jaden Daniels like you.
And then I follow this almost the same word.
Jane Daniel 6, Jalen Hertz 5.
All Jalen Hertz does is win.
And I know a lot of people say QB wins aren't a stat.
I actually disagree.
I think over a big course of time,
QB wins do tell you a lot.
And you go back to college.
This dudes had, what, nine different coordinators in, you know,
those last, you know, 10 years of playing football.
38 and 4 is a starter in college.
Only, you know, Josh Allen and Patrick Mojoms have a higher win rate in the NFL
since he joined the NFL.
He almost would have two Super Bowl MVP's.
So I'm not.
I still have Jalen Hertz, you know, at five.
I have Lamar behind Burrow, just for the playoff stuff, right?
Like, I mean, Lamar, especially paired with Ton Mocken, has been absolutely scary.
What a scary football player he's been.
But again, you know, one conference final still, you know, Burroughs five and two in the playoffs.
You know, Lamar's only three and five in the playoffs.
I kind of broke the tie there.
And then Alan Mahomes.
So, like, we do have a lot of overlap.
So I actually don't think that you should be put in jail today.
My biggest, my biggest sort of ins and outs, it came down really.
I liked Baker at 10.
To me, it was really about Purdy, Herbert, Stafford, CJ.
Like, I just couldn't figure out who I wanted in those spots.
And with Stafford, I worry about the age.
I feel like he was a little bit off last year.
He gets by on Moxie and smarts.
and I still would never want to bet against him.
CJ I probably would have put in before
because I think a lot of CJ's issues
can be rectified with improved offensive line play.
And look, he took a lot of sacks last year
and his pressure rate wasn't great.
And I think unlike other players
whose pressure rate isn't great either,
like Lamar or even Patrick Mahomes,
they hold the ball for longer
because of their ability to maneuver
in the pocket, look downfield, find open players.
I think CJ last year was a little bit gun shy and was holding the ball a little bit longer than
he should have, not because he can maneuver, but because the offensive line was so bad.
It could be worse.
It could be worse this year.
Right.
So that's why I didn't put him in, like, because if anything's going to get fixed, it needs
to be that, but I don't know that it will be fascinating.
All right.
feel like such an idiot so far.
Tua is the only one that I think
did you look at the
history of just punching up above
weight, like, and you guys know this as
better, like four and sixteen against
playoff teams, Tua, like
just, I... Yeah, like, look,
two is one of those guys who's
he's never going to get credit because
he's such a stat machine
based on the offense,
right? He's not a guy
who you're thinking, you put him
somewhere else and he's going to win. And Gough, like, look, Jared Gough, he won with the Rams,
and then he went to the Lions, and he's won with the Lions. And you could say Ben Johnson is brilliant.
You can say Sean McVeves, brilliant, but he still is executed. And I think he's grown as a
quarterback, and I think there's a lot of belief in what his skill set is. And you've seen what he can do
well, and whoever they bring in will be smart enough to figure out how to put him in the right
position. So I think there's a difference between like a system, Jared Gough,
in a system Tua.
The difference between golf, though,
that ties the two is he's never going to give you anything with his legs.
Like if I need,
if I need Jared Gough to get himself out of a bad play,
like I have no faith in that happening.
Like, you know,
athletically.
And that's what that's the one hang up.
Like I need those guys that have the spade that can pull themselves out of the heart
of darkness and just get me a football play, right?
Like you think of like that Lamar play against the Bengals last year,
that touchdown to Isaiah likely.
Like Jared Gough is never coming to anything close to that.
Or like, that's the thing about, like, you know, Josh Allen just, like, taking over games and creating these plays just out of thin air on their own.
And that's why I think, but Baker has that more than golf does.
Because Baker has like that Wolverine mentality.
Yeah, yeah.
Almost to a fault.
Like, it's like Baker, you can't try to run that lineback rover, but he don't care.
Here's what I'm loving about quarterback on Netflix.
A, Kirk Cousins and his brother and their friends.
I don't know if you guys have seen the show.
but there's an episode where Kirk Cousins buddies from high school and his brother come to visit
and they always try to dress up in some outfit that makes Kirk Cousins laugh.
And this year they dressed up as some like 80s dude in, you know, some TikTok video.
And then afterwards they were all going to some drive-through to get burgers after the game.
And in the front seat, you got Kirk Cousins and his brother.
I think they're singing Cher.
and in the backseat,
Kirk Cousins kid is yelling,
please stop, please stop,
and the brother and Kirk Cousins
are just going to longer
and longer and louder and louder.
Love those guys.
I don't know if Jared Goff and his wife
actually have anything to say to each other.
They seem to have the most sort of
uninteresting conversations.
And Joe Burrow is very cool,
but also doesn't seem to have very much to say.
Yeah, I'll say at the top,
Kirk Cousins is the whitest person ever.
I literally can't watch him.
He's so white.
It's so,
it's uncomfortable.
I get why people should on Kirk Cousins.
It's like him going to a haircuttery,
getting a $15 haircut,
the whole thing.
See,
I think he's so authentically himself,
like he doesn't care,
sort of how bad he looks.
Of course,
doesn't care.
He's the whitest dude ever.
He's like,
literally when people talk about white people,
that's what they're talking about.
He isn't seasoned his chicken.
He is the exact thing.
He kisses his dog,
open mouth.
He's everything people talk about.
You know what?
Sneaky good singing voice.
I hated Chad's list. You're very nice, Rich.
Chad's list was painful to me.
Purdy above Stafford.
I think you had pretty above C.J. Stroud, who's two and two in the playoffs.
So Chad just broke down to all of you guys why you can never just go by the numbers.
Having Tua in this conversation makes me want to rip my hair out.
I didn't put Tua in the conversation.
I left it out of the conversation.
I'm with you.
Like the from 8 to 12 is pretty tough for me as well.
I agree with that part.
But I'll get into my.
right here. I did a 12 just because of that because I just want to show the back end of mine.
I do want to make the statement that Rich is right. For the last two years, you guys have both
had Herbert in your top 10 and I have consistently had Jalen Hertz over Herbert. And I'm looking
like a genius compared to you to because Herbert just had four picks in the playoffs while
Jalen Hertz, of course, went to Super Bowl. So from the top, Chad, who is the greatest quarterback
to ever play this sport? Tom Brady. Okay. And who is the greatest
modern day quarterback playing right now?
Patrick Mahomes.
Okay.
And why did you,
why do you say that?
Because Patrick Mahomes has consistently won.
One what?
Consistently won what?
Yeah, the Super Bowl, right?
Consistently won the Super Bowl.
So that's all I needed from you.
That's what my major point was,
my list is based off past performance,
who deserves to be ranked at the top, right?
I'm not talking about the best athlete.
You've got a countdown from 10.
Don't go from the top.
The guy who gets most stats.
Yeah, I just want to say my number 12 was Herbert.
So I have Herbert outside my top 10 again.
And I was really hard between Herbert and love at that spot.
And then I do have Purita 14.
So that doesn't matter.
So I'm with Chad.
I had Baker at 10.
At 9.
Who do you have at 11?
Do you have love at 11?
Golf.
Okay.
Yeah.
So like the same thing we're, Jared, it's the same thing with Stafford.
I move him up because he doesn't have athleticism.
Like he does not have his legs to fall back on.
He is the old school pocket movement throwing the ball.
Like that was what we all grew up in.
love. So it's like I had a fight. Like you said, it's tough at these at these points to
to fight over it. But I had Baker above him. Then Daniels. I had to give Daniels respect. Like
it's it's so hard for me to put a rookie in this spot. I think last year we were all the same
thing. We all had CJ at eight or nine last year. Same thing with me with Daniels this year.
It's like 80% of fourth down. The whole thing, you could not blitz the kid. We've never seen
anything like it. You have to put him in your top 10 if you're making a list. But
some people having him at number five. That to me is just insane. It's like you're, you're
you're banking too much on future, what's going to happen in the future.
So I have him in nine, CJ at number eight, he had the season from hell,
still made the playoffs and then won a playoff game against a Chargers team that everyone was
blown and smoke up their ass, especially heading to that playoffs.
You know, that was just such a huge win for me because that team was dead.
They were dead.
I know they have a great defense.
I mean, this upcoming season, they're probably my third highest rated defense coming to the season next year, Houston.
Like they have an incredible defense.
But that playoff win against the Chargers was on CJ.
He didn't keep making the mistakes.
That Chief's game was much closer than people remember.
Like they went the arrowhead and CJ had them in a really good position.
So I have to give a ton of respect to CJ.
I put him at number eight.
Number seven, the man that's left for dead, I can't believe you guys have him on your list.
Dak, what did Dak do to you?
I don't get it.
What happened with Dak?
You know what?
He misses one year and Dak is dead to everyone.
He almost won't.
He was horrendous before his hamstring injury last year.
I agree. I agree, but it's like, I look, because the first four weeks is so weird now with guys not playing in the preseason.
To me, that's the tune up. Like, same with Joe Burrow. Joe Brode, we thought he was not going to last to week five.
I mean, he was so terrible those first four weeks is he just needed to get his arm right. And I think the same with Dak, but Dak, the hate's just gone too far.
And I knew as soon as I put him on this list, I was like, I bet you Chad's going to leave him off.
Chad hates guys coming off injured seasons. And sure enough, here's a thing. Chad did not have Dak.
I considered DAC.
I did.
And honestly, I know, you know, in the coming weeks, we're going to do a playoff episode where you and I will predict who we think will make the playoffs from the AFC and the NFC.
And a little foreshadowing here because of DAC and his return, the Cowboys will be an important part of that conversation.
DAC was like my final four were Herbert Purdy, C.J. Baker,
Herbert, Purdy, C.J. and Stafford for like that nine, eight spot, 11, 12 spot. Baker was always 10.
Dak was in there like at the last guy out of that five. You've left them for dead. And I'm with you on DAC, right? Our big pushback. We talk all the time is DAC is two and five.
in the playoffs. That is a big deal.
And it was really hard for me with him and CJ
because CJ is two and two. To me
that's all that matters. All this other bullshit
that we've become obsessed with does not
matter. Can you win and succeed
in the playoffs? Because that's all that matters, legacy
wise. We start it from the top. Tom Brady's
the goat. Not because he was the greatest
offensive genius ever like Peyton Manning.
It's because he fucking won the playoffs. Something
Peyton Manning could not consistently do. And
Dak, it feels like a make and break.
Like people already forgetting about him.
Like Chad, he just broke it down.
I'm like, it's what have you done for me lately?
And I get why that's pushed out on back.
But I'm looking at the perspective of last year was a hell season.
Every other year before that, he usually gets you 12 wins.
He's very consistent.
So I'm giving him respect.
You know, again, two and five in the playoffs is glaring, though.
And that brings back to my next one, which I think is going to shock you, Chad.
Number six, I got Joe Burrow.
Joe Burrow last year really disappointed me in many ways.
I get it.
We can put all of it on his defense, right?
Higgins sitting out a bunch of games because he's pissed off about his contract.
I agree with a lot of that.
But me and you bet on a lot of Joe Burrell games,
and I was locked in a lot of Joe Burrell games.
And we learned early on this dude cannot beat a team of the winning record.
His first win against a team of the winning record,
I believe didn't come in until he played Denver or Pittsburgh the end of the season.
I think he went two games against teams of winning records
that was Denver and Pittsburgh to end the season.
Like when he played against good teams, he folded.
That offense folded.
A lot of that goes on to Joe Burrow where he beat the shit out of the Panthers.
You want to give him a bad team,
bad defense, he did play really well.
And that's why he had great numbers on the season.
But to me, he's not done enough since that Super Bowl run.
And you could say a lot of it is bad injuries.
The team's not drafted well.
They haven't paid the right guys.
Terrible defense, offensive line.
I agree with a lot of that.
But at the same time, a lot of it also falls on Joe, bro.
Like that team should have been a playoff team last season.
And they didn't make it.
He said it so himself.
He knows a couple of those games.
He just blew.
I mean, that Ravens game too sticks out of my mind.
That they're up 10, he's got the ball and just stupid turnover.
So that was the reason I had Joe Brough outside of my top five.
Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.
And guess what?
We have some big news.
What's the news, name?
Huge news.
We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
We invented a podcast?
Well, we didn't invent it.
We just contributed to it.
We're the first people to do podcasts.
Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.
We're starting a trend.
But this one's extra special.
So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?
I honestly don't remember.
I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.
This is how you guys remember it going down?
Yes.
I have a very different memory of this.
We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.
And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel
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Simon, I have always been on this list.
Joe Burrow heavy to the point where I would put him above Josh Allen,
just entered Patrick Mahomes.
I thought I was...
We both had him at three last year.
I thought I was like pushing it, putting him at four after Lamar and Josh Allen.
So you go into six, I think is a very bold move.
Because again, it's based off past performances where it's like,
I agree, going forward Joe Burrow, am I going to want Stafford over Joe Burrow?
No.
But I have Stafford number five because of what he's done in the past,
And, you know, that Eagles game, he couldn't get anything going in that snow.
He was dead.
Anyone else would have folded up.
But that veteran Moxie is why we love Stafford.
You give him an inch.
He took it.
Like, he literally took that Eagles team to the break, which was just so impressive.
And that whole season, he played through injuries.
He willed that team.
I think they had another really bad start to the season.
They didn't matter, right?
They ended the season, I believe, 8 and 2 or 8 and 3.
It's just all about him.
And the fact that they brought in Adams as well,
I think we have another really great year from this.
I believe it's his last show on his contract, too, with the Rams.
So it just felt like it's all lined up for him.
And that's why I put him at number five.
It's like he's got the ring.
He's got the years added up.
And, you know, it's, once again, he can't use his legs like these other guys
are about the mention.
To me, that is such a big deal for a guy like him.
So, yeah, Stafford, number five.
Number four, went with Lamar.
You know, Lamar, we love Lamar.
People think we're big Lamar haters on the show.
we all know Lamar has all the talent in the world.
Lamar also gets a lot of excuses that someone who's coming up with my list does not get
Jalen Hertz.
You give Lamar Derek Henry a great running back.
That should have been enough to put them over the edge in the playoffs.
And it was, but he made those mistakes once again.
And he is someone that at this point, he's three and five in the playoffs.
That is a big deal.
Like this isn't some kid now.
He's going to be 28 years old this upcoming season.
That's a big deal, right?
We have the years at this point.
He's 3 and 5.
Lamar's got a breakthrough because haters like me are I'm just going to keep getting
louder because it's been profitable fading him in the playoffs.
Like we pick our spots.
When he's playing against these not so great teams, he can perform.
When it's Josh Allen, when it's Mahomes, me and Chad already know if it's under three,
we're auto betting that team against him.
So that's something Lamar's going to have to come out of.
And that's why I haven't met number four because to me,
number three, Josh Allen, he deserves to be number.
number three, the highest non-super bowl quarterback on this list.
All right.
What's crazy is I'm keeping track of your list here, and I'm counting down after Lamar.
I had already put in Hertz because I assumed your number one and two was going to be Allen and
Mahomes.
No, not yet.
And you just said to me, Josh Allen.
Yeah, because again, it's based off past performance.
Hertz has done something that Alan has never done.
He's outplayed Mahomes in a game in the playoffs.
and one straight up.
That's all that matters.
No one's doubting.
Josh Allen has more talent than Hertz.
The kid was a fucking first round pick.
Hertz is a second round pick.
Like, you know, that stuff, he'll never catch up metric-wise, right?
The body style is just different.
But the mental aspect of it, whatever happens,
Josh Allen keeps getting caught by my homes.
And we can put excuses, right?
Blame the coaching staff.
The talent's there.
They had a top five offensive line last season.
He had a running back who rushed for 16 touchdowns.
He won MVP.
There was no doubt of that offense.
Our question was that defense,
and the defense gave him a 10-point lead with the ball in the fourth quarter,
and he didn't live up to it in that moment against Mahomes,
and he faltered.
And it keeps happening.
And we keep making excuses.
Now we're in year 20.
He's 29 years old.
So to me, he's another guy that just needs to step up in the playoffs,
and it's why I have him below Hertz because Hertz went over that hump,
where Josh Allen, you can't say he doesn't have the talent.
He has the talent around him.
all on him at this point. So yeah, I put Josh down number three. Chad already said, number two,
Jalen hurts. And I want to do a little exercise here with Chad. Chad, close your eyes. You haven't
won a playoff game since 2010. Your bears have been terrible. You draft the quarterbacks.
And I tell you by age 26, he's going to win the NFC twice. He's going to go to two Super Bowls.
He's going to be runner-up MVP. He's going to be an all pro. He will win a Super Bowl in his 26-year-old
season and be Super Bowl MVP. Is that your guy? Is that the guy you want that takes down Mahomes?
Is that your number two quarterback? 100%. I see that and I want him on my team so badly.
It's rare air. So I just want to tell you these quarterbacks to reach two Super Bowls in the
first five seasons. Tom Brady, John Elway, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Ralfisberger, Kurt Warner.
That's a pretty good fucking list to be on that. That's a Hall of Fame list. And like Rich said,
all he does is win.
I agree with everyone.
Me and Chad, we have stats.
You don't think I have a fucking computer.
I can see his numbers, people.
Like, I got so much hate.
I changed my bio on Twitter to QBs are a QBs are a QB stat.
Because I agree with it where it's, we went too far the other way, where it's like,
QBs do matter two wins.
To me, it went too far the other way where it's like, well, not all wins are blaming
the quarterback.
Agree.
But these teams have so much talent.
The Ravens for three years in a row have.
a higher grade in almost anyone's, you know, betting algorithm than the Eagles or the Chiefs.
Both those teams, I mean, the Ravens keep faltering.
So that's my thing with Hertz.
It's just, it's too much gone the other way where I agree with people.
Like there are certain things he does or I'm just like, I don't trust it.
He's not in rhythm, things like that.
But in the biggest games, the biggest moments, the things that matter, the only thing we
really care about at the end of the day, which is playoff wins and Super Bowl wins,
he's exceeded expectations to the highest level.
Like, again, 26 years old, two Super Bowl, Super Bowl MVP,
I just think the hate's gone too far one way.
And I'm happy to see a lot of people now have them back
inside their top 10 quarterbacks.
To me, in this list, and being number two,
it's just because of what he's done past performance.
And going forward, I think he's going to keep getting better.
Like his ceiling, I don't think he's reaching yet,
and we all can agree.
He obviously took a step back and let it be Sequin's team.
But you didn't hear too many people saying, Chad,
well, you know, Sequin's only good because that offensive line.
That never really happened, right?
It was just, oh, this offensive line helps succeed, go higher than you could ever go
before because of the talent level.
So that's my view on Hertz.
People said he wouldn't be able to run the ball, sneak, you be sneak once Kelsey left.
Didn't matter because why?
It's about Hertz.
It's not about the center.
It's about the guy who's short, can deadlift 500 pounds and he's a freak athlete.
So that's my long-winded defense on why I have a number two.
Do I have a rebuttal?
Rich, I know you're cooking up something.
No, I mean, like I said, I just, I think when you get up into that area, like I don't really have a lot of pushback.
I think with the top five.
I think the back five is where we probably have our most disagreements.
And then, you know, the top five, whatever order you want to put them in, I think Hertz definitely belongs in that conversation for all the reason.
You said it.
And you look at last year, he only had 79 dropbacks last year with A.J. Brown, Devante, Smith, and Dallas Goddard on the field.
Like those guys were in and out of the lineup the entire season and they still were in position to be, you know, the one seat.
and still in position to go to the Super Bowl.
And so, like, I think that Hertz gets kind of a bad flack
because I think he's propped up, but they say, like, his environment.
Like, he's just going along for the ride, right?
Like, he's a bus driver.
But that really wasn't the case last year,
especially even in the playoffs.
Because, I mean, they win that game.
Obviously, the defense has a big part to do with, like,
the way that score got out of hand after the Dejan interception.
But Seekwon did nothing in that Super Bowl.
Absolutely nothing.
Spaggs said they're going to take away one guy
and who's the one guy they took away?
Sequin and Hertz, you know, put them in position to have that lead.
They had the ball, you know, he threw the interception of the two.
And then that was what the pick six came right after that.
And then kind of just that game was never in the same kind of, you know,
stratosphere of like being a competitive game again.
But you go back three years ago, he was the best player in the field.
And that Super Bowl, too.
You know, and just camp short.
But he was by far the best player in that game.
So he could have two Super Bowl MVP's, you know, at this point.
And that's what I'm so impressed with, Chad.
The moment's never too big.
I always go back to that Georgia.
Alabama game where he sat the whole season behind Tua.
Yeah.
Tua gets hurt.
He comes in, I believe they're down a touchdown, and he beats Georgia by a touchdown.
Like, came in, not playing the whole season in the SEC championship game.
And that to me speaks to the character of him.
And it's another season that he's a different O.C.
So will we see a year from two years ago where he fell apart, right?
The year from hell at the end of the season, they lost seven a row.
Or will he him this new OC gel like he did this past year?
So it's a big deal.
Obviously number one, Chad, no doubt about it, Mahomes.
I mean, how can you not have Mahomes?
He almost got the three Pete.
We've never seen anything like it.
Like you look at his stats, you know, we're early,
you can say we're early days here.
But if you look at his stats against Tom Brady's other great ones,
he has had the better start to his career
than anybody else.
Between MVP's, everything like that.
And he's being slept on once again
because of the numbers.
Like we all do in the off season,
we dig into the numbers.
Mahomes, every year his numbers have gone down.
down. And it's, you know, people are going to question it. They're going to throw different things
about that. But I just think it's, he just knows he just guys has to make it to January. Don't put
himself in these bad scenarios. No need to hang on the ball too long and take these unnecessary
hits. Quick throws. It's a, it's a mainly a running team now. And yeah, they're a team.
I'm really excited to dive into the Super Bowl and Chad, because everything I've heard is just
kind of been negative towards this chief's team. And you can get them right now 10 to 1 Super Bowl
lot. So it's an interesting year heading into the season. I'm glad all three of us from the same page.
My homes, number one. Rich, you think they're going to open it up. Tell me. I think when you look at
the signal of what they wanted to intend to do last year versus what they had to do based on injuries,
I don't think that was the plan, right? Like the plan, if you watch them the first month of the season,
well, first Hollywood gets hurt in the preseason. The plan was never to run this passing game through
a 35-year-old Travis Kelsey, you know, Rishi Rice goes down in week four, Pacheco goes down in week
and like the offense kind of just defaults back to they have to funnel things through this, you know,
version of Kelsey that is a lesser version of Kelsey.
You know, it's still a great player, but like definitely when you look at Kelsey, everyone,
does it.
Our time comes to everyone.
He's going to be 36 this year.
This year now, everyone is, is healthy coming in.
You've got Pacheco, a full year removed from the fibula injury.
Hollywood's on track to play.
Rash is already, you know, on track to play.
He was already participating in OTAs.
You get a second year Xavier worthy.
I think this team is going to run a lot more, 11,
personnel. The offensive line is kind of the one big question mark. Obviously, you gamble,
you know, you want a player that's coming off a significant injury in the first round at left
tackle. But, I mean, that's what fell apart last year. It was disappointing to see an Andy Reid
and Patrick Mahomes led team really kind of crater in on itself last year in the Super Bowl based
on something that we knew objectively coming into that game was something that could happen
and an outcome and then to not have a counter punch dialed up where just the four
man Eagles pass rush was absolutely oblitering in them and they had no quick game.
But that goes to Testament, too.
They had no run game either.
Like, you know, they're running their offense.
The Kareem hunts out here leading the backfield.
Like, I think this Chiefs team is, you know, obviously, I don't know,
think we're going to go back to the peak Tyreek Hill, peak Travis Kelsey version of the
chiefs where they're throwing the ball down the field again.
But I do think that what they wanted to do last year, they never had a chance to do it
because of the injuries they had early in the year.
Simon, I think the biggest difference is, uh, between me, you and Rich.
No Herbert for you.
Dak for you.
Rich, can you explain?
I gave a little bit of an explanation about why I didn't have DAC on my list.
What are your thoughts on not including DAC?
Yeah, I think that, you know,
the historical, you know, punching up in big games,
him coming off of a significant injury,
whereas, you know, his hamstring was basically detached,
you know, going to be 32.
The rushing component was already dwindling from his game already.
So I just kind of, you know, froze him out.
He's definitely a guy that I don't think is like, I wouldn't put him like in the bottom dwelling of QBs.
But, you know, based on like the way my criteria was, I think that, you know, he still falls behind those other players.
And then I think definitely we factor in like team context too.
It's hard to kind of, I think, get behind where the Cowboys have kind of headed right now.
The offensive line is worse on paper.
They do add George Pickens with the backfield looks like a mess right now.
secondary looks like a mess.
I'm curious, yeah, because you seem like you're a supporter of the Cowboys.
They also have one of the worst schedules in the league this year.
Like, their team that terrifies me.
And especially Brian, they hire Brought and Sean, Schottenheimer head coach.
Like, we're doing this?
Like, this is what we're doing, Cowboys?
Like, this is this.
Like, I, it's just so hard.
Reason why I do like the Cowboys a little bit.
And we're going to talk about this in a couple of weeks.
But especially in that division, you know, commanders, eagles.
I feel like the Cowboys.
could have been so much better than it was last year.
And offense, you know, because they had so many injuries, they were down to basically
nobody on either side of the ball of any skill or repute, but not having Micah Parsons
the way they did, losing defensive linemen, interior defensive linemen, at a rate that
was similar to what was happening with the lions on their defensive side of the ball.
So I think that's a little bit underplayed.
so much made about what a horrible decision it was to hire Brian Schotenheimer and just sort of
the way the Cowboys have generally been mismanaged as an organization and a roster. But to Simon's
credit, I might be overlooking Dax ability to influence and paper over some holes. But to me,
it's really about the improved defensive line for the Cowboys and their ability to disrupt that I think
people are overlooking right now.
Yeah, I feel like they had an easy fix, right?
They need to stop the run and run the ball.
That was their two biggest weaknesses, no doubt about it last season.
They could not stop the run.
Had the worst running offensive football.
So we'll see if they addressed that.
But yeah, the fact that, you know, they keep drafting young studs on the offensive line.
DAC now has a great number two option.
Like it feels like I know they have a tough schedule, but it is lined up from this season
where, you know, they should have a really good offense and a good defense.
So their team, Chad knows, I've been talking about for about four months now,
is just an undervalue team that's going to be slept on
because you're in a division with a team that won the Super Bowl
and arguably the best rookie quarterback we've ever seen.
So it just lines up as a better, just an undervalue team that people just,
it's not fun to bet Dallas right now.
And it's been a run of the public's like backing them and their fans have backed them.
Even their fans are like, I don't know about this team.
So, yeah, I'm excited to see what kind of season they have
because like we just talk about DAC.
It's getting a little late here, brother.
Two and five playoffs.
Like you guys are making moves at this point.
So yeah, I'm with you, Chad.
It's a big year for Dallas.
Simon, you and I, the big difference is you have CJ, DAC, and Stafford.
I did not include those guys in their place.
I had Herbert Purdy and who else did.
I have there and Goff that you did not include. So those are our biggest differences. Herbert and
Goff for you were on the outside and Purdy was on the outside. So interesting. Very interesting.
And I will give credit to Herbert. If he can, I mean, muster it together somehow win that division,
that would change a lot of my views on him because that's just been the Achilles heel for them.
They can't win the division. They're in a wild card game. He goes on the road in the playoffs and he just gets his
ass kicked. Like that just keeps happening. So hopefully Herbert, I know our guy, our uncle Colin,
is all in on the Chargers this season. I am totally other way. You're getting minus 1-10 of the
chiefs in that division running to the window to bet that one. So the books, the public, everyone is in
on this Chargers, this Chargers team in Denver. So yeah, Herbert, I'm with you guys. Like no one's
a nine to talent level. We all see the talent. It's just, can you finally step up in the biggest
game just get a playoff win Herbert let me just say a one next to that too because it's it's just
brutal seeing that he's just so bad in the playoffs we know the talents there uh matt mitchell can you
tell us in the chat which which decision i made that you felt i should have been arrested for was
it brock purdy uh oh purdy above stafford purdy above stafford is what he didn't like
Stafford to me was the hardest choice to leave out.
You know, like we have been all in on Stafford,
and I would normally put Stafford six or five,
and I just feel like going forward,
this is, you know, an opportunity for Purdy to vault over.
He's also, you know, Matt Mitchell is also criticizing my love for Tua.
To be clear, I was making,
a devil's advocate argument for Tua. I wasn't saying he should be on the list. I was actually
making the same point. I don't like you had him at number 12, Chad. I'm not going to let you walk away from
that. Simon made, which is that if you just go by the numbers, you would put Tua in there. But we don't
just go by the numbers. We go by more than just the numbers. And there's a difference, a nuanced
difference between looking at the numbers and saying, okay, this is what it is. Rich, back me up here as
one of the brightest minds covering football or just saying, hey, there's a lot of things that
come into play here.
Well, I think that was the kind of the case for Purdy and Tua, right?
When you compare the two, you know, how much was it this player, this quarterback versus
kind of the system?
And we saw some things kind of fall apart in Miami last year.
And, you know, Tua didn't play as good of football.
Whereas everything fell apart for the 49ers and Brock Pardy still played really good football.
That's why I think it solidifies, especially the loss of Christian McCaffrey.
I mean, you look at last year, only 49% of Purdy's dropbacks last year came with the middle of the field closed.
You know, your single high safeties, right?
Because they didn't have to respect the run.
The first two years of his career, 59.9% 60 and a half percent because teams had to respect Christian McCaffrey.
If the Christian McCaffrey was in the field, teams were like, all right, Brock Purdy beat us.
And you know what he did?
On throws 10 yards or further down field led the league in completion rate over 10% higher than the league average.
again all these wide receivers were hurt i think purdy kind of solidified that like he's not just
a product of kyle shanahan i think that last year he answered those questions that's why when
you compare the two i think that purdy gets the definite edge over tua i wasn't even considering
tua what i feel like this is becoming like a you mentioned his name on a chesha you deserve
be bashed you're the tia guy now that's it's happened i love tua i don't have to tell you i just think
He's fantastic.
Rich Rebar at Lord Rebes on Twitter.
Find your analysis at sharp football analysis.com.
It is outstanding.
Rich has two great stories up right now.
One, his consistent positional tiers, which are great,
especially relevant for fantasy,
but also a breakdown of some of the trends we saw last year,
specifically related to kickoff returns
and how that impacted scoring.
It was a very high-scoring year with a lot of records broken
and how we might be able to glean something new for this year
from what happened last year.
Rich, thanks for coming on the show.
The favorites will return with our next episode.
Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page
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