The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites - Your Gambling Guide to the Sweet 16

Episode Date: March 25, 2022

March Madness moves to its second exhilarating weekend, and Action Network's Chad Millman and his pro gambler co-host Simon Hunter welcome on their colleagues Stuckey and BJ Cunningham to break it all down, fresh from their appearance on the Big Bets On Campus podcast. The Sweet 16 has blue bloods and longshots alike, with Gonzaga, Kansas, Villanova and Arizona all still alive. Plus, we hear about the chances 15-seed St. Peter's has to advance to the Elite 8 and beyond. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Call the Tennessee Redline, 1-800-8-9-9-9-9, or visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites of the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are heading into the Suite 16 of March Madness. We are getting through the tournament, a glorious, glorious tournament. Ratings up 12%. Upsets happening. Blue Bloods advancing.

Coach K sneaking in, beating Tom iso. It's been a phenomenal tournament. We're going to break it all down. with BJ Cunningham and with Stucky, who have been covering it all for the Action Network, two of our college basketball action network analysts and experts. Before we get there, let me bring in my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional better. Simon Hunter.

Chad, buddy. Got to do a little house. Dude, we can't even get 48 hours between tapings of the show without something ridiculous happening in the NFL. Yesterday, Tyree Kill getting traded from the Chiefs to the Dolphins. What do you think? Yeah, madness. I mean, I think it's hilarious that they move from 70 to 1 to 35 to 1 to win a Super Bowl.

Like, that's one of the more bizarre movements I've ever seen. But got to do some housekeeping on. I, in fact, did make an Instagram at Simon Hunter NFL. And people took a joke the wrong way. If I tweet on Twitter, unless I'm giving out picks, I'm being sarcastic or I'm joking. Twitter is a hellish place. It's a trolling place. And I will usually joke on there.

I do not have a publicist. Chad is my publicist. I don't actually have a publicist. It's true. Chad said that I need to do more stuff with social media. And I, you know, I can't do TikTok yet.

I mean, maybe, maybe. I'm dipping my toes, though, with Instagram. So I'm eventually going to start doing live stuff. I know there's a ton of NFL stuff going on.

We'll figure something out. But, yeah, that is my profile. on that is real. I do have an Instagram account now. And I wasn't really hacked. I did actually pick Yukon to win it all. People thought I really did get hacked. I didn't get hacked. I did pick Yukon. I think that's back to back years now. The team I picked to win it all got knocked out on the first Thursday game. So yeah, I'm I'm really good at college basketball.

Relieves you of the burden of having to be stressed like my friends Stucky and BJ. I'm following you now Simon Hunter NFL on Instagram. I just did it while you were talking. I'm excited about that. All right. Stucky and BJ. Stucky, I want to start with you, the very first question. I've had a lot of upsets.

If you're reseeding the tournament right now, west, east, south, Midwest, who are your top two seeds in each region? Well, we're not going to look at, I've got to look at the regions, but by the way, thanks for having me. Overall, I'll pull up the bracket in a sec, but overall, if I were to resee the entire tournament, one seeds would be Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston, and Kansas, two seeds, Villanova, Purdue, Duke, and UCLA. Three seeds, Texas Tech, and the two and three are very similar. I mean, I had Duke a little ahead of Texas Tech, but the margin is very, very slim, but Texas Tech would be the first number three. then North Carolina, Arkansas, Michigan.

And just to show you, UCLA is my last number two. My third number three is North Carolina. They play each other. The margin there is less than a point on a neutral court. And the four seeds will be Providence. And then a, you know, Miami, Iowa State, and then a big drop off to St. Peters, which would be the 16th seed.

So if that was the case, we'd be seeded the tournament. I mean, some conference tournaments do this. You'd have Gonzaga playing St. Peters. The only matchups that would be. still hold would be Kansas versus Providence and Villanova versus Michigan. And if we did reseed, interestingly enough, we'd have four days of talking Duke, Carolina, because that would be the matchup based on my power ratings. That would have been amazing.

Providence is a fascinating team. And BJ, I want to get your take on this also in the reseeding in a second. Look, it's one of those teams that a lot of people thought would get knocked out in the first round, thought they might have been overseeded. Their metrics were terrible, analytics were terrible. And yet here they are, surprising everybody and breaking through into the Sweet 16. BJ, I don't think you like Providence when the tournament began. Not at all.

No, I think I said it on BBOC a long time ago, but there's just something paganistic going on with Providence this year that I just cannot put my finger on analytically. I mean, if you look at shock quality, they should have lost, actually, in the last two games, even though they beat Richmond by, what was it, they actually, based on the quality shots, they should have lost by two points. So I don't really know what's going on with them, Chad. I can't figure them out analytically. It doesn't make any sense. So an analytics guy like me, I've just kind of thrown my hands up and said, you know what? They'll probably beat Kansas by 20 in this next round.

But you know what? They're on a historic run. And you know what? Keep riding that Lucky Rabbit's foot all the way to the title. All right. Receive for me. All right. So Gonzaga, number one seat.

I agree on that. Arizona, also number one seed. I do agree with Stucky that Houston should also, if we reseed for. it should be a one seed. And then Kansas as a two seed, I'm going to disagree a little bit on stock. I know the margin for areas a little bit. It's very close.

I have Texas Tech as a two state along with Purdue, Villanova, and UCLA. And then three seeds, Duke, North Carolina, Michigan, in Arkansas. And then I agree with him on the four seats. Iowa State, Miami Providence, and St. Peters as four seeds. So the Houston-Arizona game is going to be absolutely fascinating for two teams that really probably should be, like Stuckie's already said, one seeds, but yeah, if I had to re-seed the tournament,

I think Gonzag and Arizona are pretty much in a class as their own going forward in the tournament. Well, look, we got Gonzaga and Arizona playing tonight. We got four more games tomorrow night. This is Thursday afternoon. We're recording this. Arkansas, Gonzaga is the first game on CBS in our night of double-headers here. They are nine and a half-point favorites against Arkansas.

BJ, you first? A lot of problems for Arkansas on this match. And that's why you see them as, you know, such big underdogs. Like first off guard, Gonzaga, number one team in the country and two-point field goal percentage allowed and field goal percentage allowed at the rim with Drew Timmy and Chet Holmgren. Arkansas is a terrible shooting team, 237th and effective field-go percentage and outside the top 300 and three-point field-go percentage. So, you know, the hogs attack the rim at a very high rate. And it's not really going to work in this type of matchup. And if you look back to their schedule, you know, the one team they played that has, you know, size similar to Gonzaga down well was Auburn.

And obviously they won that game against Jabari Smith and Walker Kessler, but they weren't that effective at the rim, only around 0.9 points for possession at the room, which is actually really bad. Really the only chance Arkansas has in this game is for it to be played in transition similar to what Memphis did. They aren't really effective in the half court or in transition, their own 150th in both. But Gonzaga is outside the top 1-50 in transition defense. and their fourth and a half-court defense. So Memphis was able to put up over 1.1 points for possession against Gonzaga. So the over-in-this game, funny enough, is basically set exactly at what the Memphis

Gonzaga game was. So for me, I am really looking at the total here at over 154.5. I know it's high, but, I mean, Arkansas really their only chance in this game is they've got to play it up and down. And that's what Gonzaga absolutely loves to do. And they'll do that happily the entire game. So I and Gonzagg, obviously, you know, you look at their metrics, number one team and two-point field goal percentage.

And, you know, I could go through it all, but basically the best offense in college basketball. So I'm leaning towards over 154.5 points as far as the spread is concerned. I think the number is about right. But just a lot of advantages for Gonzaga here against Arkansas. Stuck. Yeah, I have no official play here. This would be, this is probably a really good game if you want to get in live. Both teams want to play up and down.

Arkansas is really streaky. Gonzaga goes on big runs. So if you're looking for, you know, if you're like, I kind of like Arkansas, I kind of like Gonzaga. It's a good chance you might be able to get a better number live. Arkansas also been known to come out and start slow. So you might get a better number on them more so than Gonzaga. But it's not a great matchup for Arkansas.

Arkansas wants to get to the line. That's really where they live. Gonzaga doesn't really fail. You know, Arkansas wants to pressure you. Gonzaga doesn't turn it over. And what they did against Memphis and Georgia State, two teams that do pressure you. They only turned over seven times in each game.

I thought that was really telling for this particular matchup. You know, Arkansas wants to get on the offensive glass. Gonzaga's great on the defensive glass. So unless Jady Notet, Arkansas's guard, who's just very up and down, he can get into foul trouble, unless he has a huge day, he's got to go for like 25 or 30 here. This is a Gonzaga win and probably a Gonzaga covered, but the line's pretty sharp.

I think that if you want to bet this, maybe look for an opportunity live, but it's just not the best matchup for Arkansas. It is interesting. This is the most bet on game in the action app right now. And has 12K more bets on it than the Duke, Texas Tech, which I have to say I'm a Duke fan. That's my favorite game.

So next up. It's the first one, though. First one. Everyone, you look on Thursday of the first round of the tournament Friday. The first game is always the most bet. Everyone just can't wait. And they have to bet that first game that starts. True to generates.

I love it. Michigan Nova, the next. game, Big Ten versus Big East. Michigan plus five. Is that too many points for this Michigan team? What do you think, stuck? Now, I think that I actually, I make it a little bit higher. I lean towards Villanova here. I might look to get them better number live. Look, Villanova runs pick and roll with Colin Gillespie, Justimore, as at a top 15 rate nationally. They do it as well as anybody. And that's where Michigan struggles. They're in like the 13th percentile per synergy. That's really bad covering.

pick and roll. So I think their guards could be exposed here. Hunter Dickinson does have a big advantage in the post on the other end, but I assume Jay Wright will come up with a good game plan to contain them or just say, look, get yours. We won't let everyone else beat us from three. So, you know, it's the fairly sharp line. I actually would lean Villanova. The thing to keep in mind here is that if this game was close late, Villanova is leading. Villanova, probably the best free throw shooting deep in the country, maybe of all time in the final few minutes of a game. game. They have a couple guards who are just 90% who do not miss, who do not even hit the rim. So, you know, Villanova's up two to three to four late and Michigan has the foul.

That's going to go to six. And then a Michigan misses all of a sudden it's at eight. And that could end up swinging this. So I think Villanova gets it done, but fascinating matchup because I think the Nova pick and roll is going to have a huge advantage. In addition to their guards, you know, Gillespie and company backing down the smaller Michigan guards. I think that when they invert their offense, they can have success there. So I would lean Villanova, but line's pretty sharp, might look for it live. The free throw is late might end up swinging this one. Do you with them, B.J.?

Yeah, I tend to agree. I do lean towards Villanova. I actually kind of like the under in this matchup. I mean, I think you're going to see a very similar game to the Ohio State Villanova game, where Villanova is just going to try to slow this game down to their snail's pace. And it's basically to be played in the half court. And to echo off of Stuckey's, you know, point about Hunter Dickinson, you know,

Villanova, obviously they don't have a height to deal with them. I mean, their tallest guy is 6'8, but against Ohio State, who's a top five frequency team in terms of post-ups, they only allowed eight points on 14 post-up sets. And they're actually, in the big east, they faced five teams who are in the top 40 in terms of average height. So it's not like they're not used to playing this type of height. And they're also a top 30 team in terms of points for possession allowed at the rim.

So I don't think that Dickinson is going to be as dominant, as everybody thinks, Jay Wright's a great schemer, like Stuckie already said, to hook them up with a good game plan. The thing about Villanova, you know, obviously like Stucky said, they have the great advantage in pick and roll, but they're obviously a high frequency three-point shooting team. But what's weird about Villanova is they don't get a lot of open three-pointers.

They're 3-second in open-three-point rate, and Michigan is fourth in the country in allowing open-three-pointers. So a lot of Inova shots, I don't think you're going to be the highest quality. So I actually do like the under 135 and a half points. I think Villanova will slow this pace down, keep it in the half court and was both defenses having some nice advantages. that it'll let itself to a low-scoring affair. Under-scar me.

Under-scare me right now with a team like Villanova because of what Stucky said, that you get into the last couple of minutes and it's playing at a pace that is so decidedly under. And then Michigan is behind and has to foul constantly and Nova just piles it on with the free throws and you see it slipping away. The last two games of the night, Texas Tech, Duke, Houston, Arizona. Let's start with Texas Tech and Duke. Texas Tech is a one-point favorite. Both games are lined really, really close.

BJ, we've talked about Duke. Every game is a celebration because it's potentially Coach K's last game. If I spend every waking moment trying to just beat you, eventually that becomes a shallow life. That can't be what motivates me. Even when Duke was losing the Michigan State, when they lost that lead, I still didn't believe Duke was going to lose that game. And this team, they can look amazing. And then they can look like what they are, which is a bunch of really talented freshmen who are going to take off for the NBA. Well, it's funny about this matchup. I saw on Twitter that I think it's the highest,

the biggest discrepancy in terms of average age and a starting five in an NCAA tournament matchup ever. I think Duke is around like 18 and a half years old. And Texas Tech is like 23 and a half because they have a bunch of grad transfers. So not that that plays too much in the handicap. I just thought it was kind of funny. Duke, obviously, they love to get out. and run in transition. They're very effective in doing so, but Texas Tech is a very good defensive team in transition. Duke obviously has been struggling defending in transition. They're outside the top 200. So if they want to try to play this game in the half court to take away Texas Tech's advantage in transition, where even though the Red Raiders don't spend a lot of time in transition,

they're still a top five team in terms of efficiency, Texas Tech is the number one defense in the country and half court defense. So Duke is kind of in this weird position where it's like, okay, we want to playing in transition, but we're bad defensively. So if we want to play in the half court, well, we got to go against the number one half court defense in the entire country. It's a, it's a weird type of scheme type matchup. Duke, uh, offensively is a high frequency cutting and isolation offense, which works against most opponents because they have size and athleticism advantages, but it's not only going to work against Texas Tech is their top five in defending both of those type of sets. And really the only way to beat Texas Tech is you've got to

hit their hit shots from behind the arc, which Duke is capable of doing, but it puts a lot of pressure on the blue devils to hit those shots. from a three point range. On the flip side, we've talked about a lot, but Duke really can't stop anything right now. They're, you know, they've played two sub, 200 offenses that can't attack the rim effectively. Duke can't turn anybody over right now.

They're outside the top 300 and turn over percentage, which is one of Texas Tech's main weaknesses. They're struggling to keep teams off the offensive glass. Texas Tech is a top 40 offensive rebounding team. And like I already said, they can't defend in transition. So if Texas Tech wants to get out in transition, they should be able to score basically it will. So I think there's a lot of positives for Texas Tech in this match.

So I am on the Red Raiders on the money line at minus 1.15, and I think that they're going to end Coach Kay's career tonight. You need to trust somebody. You don't know it all. I can't quite get there, but I'm not playing Duke. Duke does have the individual talent to score on this elite defense. Like you need just individual playmakers and you need to make threes, which they can make threes and they have individual playmakers

who can just take the ball late and the shot hockey and make plays. I actually like the under ear. I think the Texas techs look, look, Duke's defense is a bit of mess. And if you look back, they've gone over, I don't know, eight of nine games. But I don't think Texas Tech's offense is the offense that can really exploit some of their issues off the ball. I think that Duke can really match up individually here. And this Texas Tech offense is just ugly.

And they go through long droughts. And I don't think Duke's offense is going to have it easy. And I think you're going to see this just become a half-court grinder. So I really like the under and chat, you know, you said unders are scary. Duke unders are particularly scary. split some with the first half. And, you know, with this, when spreads are really tight, it's your better chance that this is going to be a close game than a blowout,

which means there's overtime risk. There's risk of fouls late. It's the last game of the year, right, for one of these teams. So if you're down, you're going to foul until the very end. Tournament games, fouling's up 20 to 25% in the last two minutes. So if you like an under, like I do here, put some on the first half under as well, you know, for some sanity and then partial hedge against some of those late game situations with fouling and potential overtime.

But I think this turns into a half-court ground. These two teams played like three or four years ago when Zion was a Duke on a neutral court in Madison Square Guard. Final score was like 69 to 58. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw something similar. Duke's defense has to just come out and guard, which they haven't been able to do. But the Texas Tech offense can kind of beat its stuff at times.

The fouling in the final two minutes would be even compared to previous years, if not for UNC Baylor. Or Purdue, Texas. But yeah, there's been a couple of rough shows so far. Some real shit shows. Spoken like a true leader, which is all Shashefsky says he ever wanted to be. That's what I was trained to do. That's why I went to West Point to be a leader.

Yeah, this game, I honestly looking at just the reverse line movement would scare me off of Duke. Duke has literally been getting all the money, all the bets, and the line just keeps moving towards Texas Tech. So obviously a professional group has made a stance and they're taking Texas Tech here. So I would say be careful. If you're a Duke fan like me, I'm going to wait and hopefully get an inline game, get a better number than this. Because like Stucky said, I really don't feel like there's that much value right now with this number. It's just it's just such a low number. But the next matchup, Houston, Arizona, you guys already talked about.

You receded it. You both had Houston as a one seed. This is obviously the best game of the Thursday, Friday slate. Who do you guys like in this match? We'll start with you, B.J. I don't really like a side of this one. I think this is a game you can jump in on live. I'll be honest, I was waiting for this line to come open.

Obviously with Arizona, you know, blowing that lead against TCU and having to go to overtime. I was hoping to get Houston at, you know, plus three, plus three and a half, maybe even four. But now we're down to one and a half. I really don't think there's much value in the line. I mean, it's really interesting because you saw how much Arizona struggled keeping TCU off the offensive glass. I mean, they had 20 offensive rebounds against them. Well, Houston is third in the country, an offensive rebound percentage and has way a way more efficient offense. than TCU because the Hornfrogs basically just relied on offensive rebounds the entire year.

So outside of crashing offense blast, really the way to beat Arizona is you got to knock down threes and you have to be efficient in transition, which Houston isn't a great three-point shooting team, but they are top five, top 35 in terms of efficiency and transition, even if they do play an incredibly slow pace. The problem I have Arizona in this matchup is they're a very high frequency team in finishing at the rim, which you just can't do against Houston. I mean, you can ask Illinois about that. They had only 18 points at the room with Kofi-Koburn. So it's just a really difficult matchup for Arizona, but on the flip side, you know, I don't really trust Houston off, Houston's offense. They can go through these kind of lulls and stretches.

You know, Arizona, obviously, they're not, they're a good three point shooting team, but, you know, if you watched, you know, Chris against TCU, he's their main three point shooter. He went one of 10 and almost took that out of the game. So I think this is a good chance to get on on this live. I think this game is going to come down to, you know, the final few possessions. So if one team comes out hot and gets a big lead. I think you can jump in on whoever's down to get a better number. I can guarantee I will not be up for this game. That's the one thing we can bet on is that I'll be sleeping and I'll learn the score in the morning when I roll over and check my phone. Wait, Chad, would there be any matchup that you would, that could be played at this time slot that

you would staff for? Duke Carolina was playing. Would you staff for that? It's honestly, it's not even about the teams. It's just about what can my body handle. Like last week, Friday and night was a full-on sports explosion. My kid and I, we started watching the games as early as we could in the afternoon. We were watching them until the last game ended. We had multiple screens up. On one screen at one point, we had the Bulls and the Sons because they were playing late. The Bulls were playing, you know, and the 10 o'clock tip off in Phoenix. It's only about, you know, what is my current body clock status? It's not matchup. It's not matchup. It's not match up at all. It's only that.

You're too old. You're just an old man. Okay. Protect yourself against upsets this march with bracket parlay insurance. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

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Visit MazdaUSA.com to learn more. We got the Cinderella story, the peacocks from St. Peter's, northern New Jersey, going against the Purdue Boilermakers. I'm a little torn on this. As a one-time resident of Jersey, northern New Jersey, I love the state. I love like the attitude that St. Peter's plays with. But even though I went to Indiana, when I grew up in the suburbs of Chicago, there was a guy from our area who went to play a Purdue.

That team with Gene Katie was always ranked number one and never made it to the final four. So I had a little soft spot for Purdue. And it's still been so long since like they had that run. And now Matt Painter has been there a while. They've had great teams. I know they're going to win this game in advance. I would like Purdue to get to the final four. Stuck, give me your take on the 12.5 point favorite Purdue Boilermaker.

against St. Peters. Yeah, St. Peter's from Run, run, baby, run gym. If you saw some of the games last week, there's small gym there. It's an incredible story. If you look at like their budget and, I don't know,

was the clear favorite to win that conference. And now they're in the Sweet 16. It's a 15 seat. Only two other 15 seats have ever made it this far. Both actually covered in the Sweet 16, but neither did win. But yeah, run baby, run gym. One of the coolest gym names.

By the way, I think I read the other day that you were just talking about Jersey, too, born to run the Springsteen song. It was supposed to be like the Jersey state song and it went to like the Senate and then someone was like brought up that it was about running from New Jersey so they didn't pass. Anyway, that just, I just quickly my head when I was saying run in Jersey. But look, teams in the Sweet 16 there are getting double digits

have not had a lot of success in the past. Although like I said, the two 15 seats did cover. St. Peters is a tough match up here. I talked about the Purdue Texas game. Purdue shot 45 free throws against Texas, who's undersized in the middle, but they're Texas. A lot better athletes in St. Peters. Purdue just marched the line. All they do is go to the free throw line, top 10 in the country, and that I expect because they have just two trees inside that you can't cover.

Well, St. Peter's bottom 10 in the country in Fow rate, very aggressive defense. They can't really stop Purdue. Inside here, I mean, look, you go back to that Kentucky game. They were playing Oscar Sheba. You could say, well, they beat Kentucky. Sheway had 30 and I think 14. He did whatever he wanted inside. And the other side of the ball, Peters, so this could be just a march, the free throw line for Purdue over and over again.

The other side of the ball, Peters relies on two things for offense. Getting to the line, well, guess what, Purdue is also top 10 in Farrard on defense and offensive rebounds. Purdue, great defensive rebounding team. So I think the Cinderella story is probably up. If I had to pick a side here, it'd probably go Purdue. I don't show a ton of value in the number. So I might just stay away and root for St. Peter's magic. I mean, look, there's the three point line.

The rest might, they need them to not call this game tight. But they could hit a bunch of threes. Purdue could be off and maybe we can get a 15 CD Elite 8 for the first time ever. How can you not root for that? But from a matchup perspective, it's bad news for the peacocks. B.J. Yeah, I agree. It's a really bad matchup for the peacocks.

You know, it's funny. I'll send you a thread chat of all the crazy things of St. Peter's in their budget a former assistant basically went through all of just the crazy things from their budget that happened from the gym leaking multiple times from them working in an offense with one inch of water on the floor. Like it's just it's crazy that they actually made it this far. I agree with Stucky. It's it's hard because the size that Purdue has inside is really a huge advantage against St. Peters. And like I mentioned when I came on for the first round, breaking down the first round of the tournament,

St. Peter's attacks the term with the highest frequency of anybody in the country. but they're not effective in doing so. And they weren't really that effective against Kentucky or Murray State. And so trying to score at the rim against Purdue size is a big problem. They really just have to go berserk from a three-point line. That's really the only chance that they have

because like St.ke said, they're not going to be able to get to the line like they're used to. It's just a really, really tough matchup for St. Peter's. But they get half from three. They could do it. So I definitely lean Purdue with the massive size advantages down low.

But you know what? Kentucky had massive size advantage down low and look what happened to them. So who knows what can happen. Purdue is no stranger to covering big numbers in the tournament. Yep. So far. They're good. They're a good big favor. Yeah. Generally, they play these mid-majors that just can't, you can't cover seven-footers, right? They don't have the size. And then it's just Purdue layup, Purdue layup, even if they're not hitting their threes. It's just a tough matchup when you have that much size. I'm heartbroken. You guys, I call them the peacocks the peacocks the peacocks. I mean, come on guys.

Peacocks. The peacocks. Got to let them fly. Peacock proud, man. I love that they're also, they're the best against the spread college basketball team. Is that correct this season? St. Peter's Peacocks? Yeah, 19 and 4, I believe. You know, I love.

I love riding those trends. I'm definitely going to be taking them. I've taken them last two weeks. Did not touch the money line either game because I am a coward. I'm doing it. I'm going to throw a little on the money line this time. Look, if it gets close late, all the pressure shifts to do. That's what I'm thinking too.

appointment they're supposed to win this so if st. peters can just keep it close and people are like crowd will turn and you know it'll get interesting people's whole thing they don't like it's a whole week of them being celebrated it's like have you guys seen their school they're getting celebrated by like 10 people it's not like they've come back to like thousands of thousands but 40,000 people campus it's like a 2,000 person campus so i love roberts or roberts had a shot to beat their 15 seed the one of the other three including St. Peter's 15 seats to get to the sweet succeed. They had a shot to beat Arkansas late.

So you never know. Love it. So we got next up, Providence versus Kansas, seven and a half. Am I crazy? Is that way too many points in this matchup? Or is Kansas that legit in your opinion? What do you think, BJ? I would sit here and tell you analytically that Kansas has a ton of advantages

and that they should be able to blow out Providence. I mean, shot quality has a minus 12 for Kansas. They are, you know, their top 40 in terms of points for possession and transition. Providence outside the top 300. So Kansas should be able to just absolutely torch them. But again, I don't really know what's going on with Providence because they have this weird ability for teams to just not hit open shots against them. It's very, very strange.

I don't know how they do it, but teams just for whatever reason can't hit open shots. And Kansas has struggled all year getting margin against as big favorites. And they did it against a very underman, Creighton team who was out without their starting point card and center. I mean, there are so many times they could have just gone on running. and put that game away, but they just couldn't. So this is a game I will ultimately be passing because Providence has beaten me down into the ground.

And Kansas also, I just don't trust them as a big favorite. So I'm just ultimately just passing on this game. And Providence will probably win by 20. And I'll just go even further into the ground. BJ sounds like a man defeated, Stucky. I am very defeated. I like Providence. I'm on Providence here.

I think it's too many points. Look, Providence has a bunch of, they're one of the most experience teams in the country. They're well coached. And BJ pointed it out, Candace can't really extend against teams that are just like slightly inferior. I think Providence also is a number of options of guys. They don't rely on one guy getting hot. It's a really well-balanced team.

I think that they can, you know, their physicality can give Candice some problems. Candice in transition is deadly against anybody. And Providence's transition defense is awful. So if Providence isn't hitting shots, this could get really ugly, but they're going to have to have shots anyway to stay in it. That just means that it could go from like 10 to 20 quick. But I think this is too many points. I've been on Providence the first two rounds. I'm on them again.

I'll ride this voodoo wagon until the wheels fall off. All right. Look, the next game is such a classic, you know, college blue blood matchup. UNC and UCLA, UCLA, 212. and a half point favorites. UNC obviously surprise knocking off Baylor, giving up a 25 point lead, winning in overtime, good for Hubert Davis, feel good story. I don't care if they can advance. Stuck. Can they cover? No, I like UNC here. I'm waiting to lock it in. There's one of UCLA's best players hurt last week in Jaime Hockes and they're waiting to see, they say if he can

walk, he can play. People were analyzing like him walking to the bus. I think he's going to play. I don't think it'll be 100%. But if word gets out that he's fine, if he's warming up, you might see this line come up, maybe the three, three and a half. So I'm waiting to see if that happens before I take UNC.

But I think that this is pretty close to a coin flip game. And I think that UNC has a lot of advantages here. Look, this UCLA defense is incredible, but in order to beat them, you have to do a couple things. You have to be able to hit threes, catch and shoot threes,

and that's where UNC is elite. And you have to beat them in transition. and UCLA's transition defense outside the top 300 UNC is a lead in that aspect. And what will UNC do here? They can defensive rebound. They're second in the country in that aspect. And that takes those two things. That takes away a strength of UCLA who's good on the offensive glass.

And it leads to transition opportunities the other way where UNC can take advantage of UCLA. And the other side of the ball, UDC doesn't turn anybody over ever, but UCLA doesn't turn the ball over ever against anyone. So that strength is kind of negated in a way because UNC's not going to turn anyone over anyway. UCLA's not going to turn it over. So, you know, UNC's weak on the three point line. UCLA doesn't really shoot threes. They're outside the top 300. It's a mid-range jumping team. So I think at their peak, UNC is a more talented and better team slightly. They have underperformed. UCLA has been way more consistent. The problem with UNC is they've had a number of games where their defense just doesn't show up. Just for whatever reason, young team, their defense doesn't show up.

young pieces, but it's a tournament. You can expect their defense to be locked in here. I like UNC catching the points. I'm going to wait to see if I can get a three. Are you as defeated on this as you are on Providence, BJ? No, I'm actually going to disagree with stuff. He actually like UCLA minus two. And I agree that there are some wording designs for UCLA in terms of, you know, the, the catch and shoot threes and defending off pick and rolls and everything. But, you know, North Carolina is a top 20 team in terms of efficiency off off ball screens. And that's how they got. That's basically how they beat Baylor. Well, UCLA is top 50 in defending those off ball screens and also be able to handle

Baycott down low because they're top 50 team in terms of defending post upsets. So that's going to put a lot of pressure on North Carolina to knock down those three pointers, which if you look at their shot quality stats, they are due for some negative regression shooting the ball. UCLA, you're going to see a ton of mid-range jumpers. And for good reason, because they're top 10 in terms of efficiency from the mid-range on North Carolina is only average at defending from the mid-range. It's going to be very difficult. It's from North Carolina, you know, obviously if they're able to dominate the defensive glass, then that's great, but not being able to turn opponents over.

That's going to put a lot of pressure on them to keep UCLA off the offensive glass. So we'll see if Hawkes plays. I mean, if he's not 100 percent, I still do like UCLA at minus two or better, but I'm actually on the Bruins in this matchup. All right. Now we got a conflict. I don't know what to do right now. So we'll have to wait and see. If hockey has plays, I think that changes everything.

I'm going to wait and see, see how the number moves. Simon, back to you, buddy. This feels like the first matchup that I looked at and thought of college football. I don't know why Iowa State versus Miami just brought me to bowl season. I was like, man, they should name this matchup, some type of bowl game. But then I looked at it, and it's just interesting. They're both 10-11 steeds. So this is obviously two teams.

that you said they got a little lucky getting here, or maybe they're just underseated. This Miami team just not has not been hitting shots, yet they're still winning, and they're doing a weird way. It's like, what, they have 20 steals last game? I could not get over how they won these past weekends. So looking at this, it feels like everyone's coming on Miami,

and I'm right there with them. It's up to minus two and a half now against Iowa State. Am I overthinking? Should I just go the Iowa State side? I look Miami personally, and Jim Lardegas boys here. Yes, that's a, very nice. Very nice.

I think there's a great matchup for Miami. Iowa State, look, they got here. They beat an LSU team in disarray without a coach that just turns the ball over. Then they beat Wisconsin that lost Hepburn. And they couldn't really run offense with them. He got injured and was out for the game. And they turned, they had 19 forced turnovers and 17 forced turnovers in their first two tournament games. That's what Iowa State does.

Pressure defense. That's the only way they could score. Their half court offense is disgusting. But they can force turnovers, get out in transition and score. Well, guess what? Miami. and Iowa State number four in the country in forced turnover percentage. Miami, number five

in turnover percentage on offense. They don't turn the ball over ever. They have four ball handles on the court at all times. They're not going to turn the ball over. On the other side of the ball, Miami actually forces turnovers, and Iowa State turns it over incessantly. So it's actually Miami that's going to be able to force turnovers here. That's how they beat USC, despite shooting one of 14th and three.

USC was nine of 20. They're going to be able to get on transition, and they're number one in the nation in transition efficiency. So I think this is a really easy handicap. The problem with Miami all year is their interior defense. They're not big and rebounding. Not really concerns against Iowa State. I think it's a great matchup for Miami.

That's the time I check. I think everyone's on it. Don't care. I think it's a great matchup. I'll be on the Keynes money line here. Maybe pair them with Purdue if you want or Gonzaga, if you want to get the price down. But I think Miami advances.

I think it's just a spectacular matchup. That's kind of the calmness I need right at the end. See how you did that? That was good. Yeah, I totally agree. Echoing everything, Stucky said, Iowa State's really just stuck in this matchup because if they want to play in transition,

which they're better at offensively, well, like Stuckery already said, Miami most efficient team in transition offensively, but they're also top 65 in defending in transition. And where Miami's weakest is defending in the half court, which Iowa State, 336 in points for possession, half court offense, and averaged over under 0.8 points for possession

and half court offense, which is really bad in the first two games. So I don't really know what Iowa State's going to do. They can't, they're obviously a very good team at defending in the half court, but they want to play a half court game. They can't score offensively. So I don't really know what they're going to do in Miami. There's just so many advantages for Miami, especially at the rim. Miami, 64 percent, fieldwell percentage of the rim this year.

They faced USC who's the second best team in the country at defending at the rim, put up 1.1,3 points for possession against Auburn, against Javari Smith and Walker Kessler, they had 40 points at the rim against them. I would say it's top 50 nationally defending at the rim, so I still think Miami's going to have advantages there. I'm with Stucky. I love the hurricanes. There's just way too many advantages for them for the line to be this slow.

So I'm on the hurricanes minus two. All right. That's all good. Ready? Let's go. All right, guys, before we get out of here, we'll preview post-el-lead eight, final four and championship game. But now with the sweet 16 set, we're going to have another eight games.

over the next two days. BJ, give me your final four coming out of the weekend. I'll go Texas Tech making the final four out of the West. I had that originally. I think that they'll give by Duke and give Gonzagga a lot of problems. I'll have Purdue coming out of the east. I'll take Arizona coming out of the south. It doesn't make you feel very good, given their match against Houston.

And I'll have Kansas coming out of the Midwest for the final four. Stuck, what about you? I'll go Gonzaga, North Carolina, Villanova, and Kansas. Wow,

that's a blue blood Final Four right there. It is, except my wildcats aren't there, unfortunately. That's a nice roundup. All right,

guys, for even more college basketball content, make sure you listen to big bets on campus. Probably our best

podcast. Great info. I think we're primed for Sweet 16. BJ Cunningham, Stucky for Simon Hunter. Simon Hunter NFL on Instagram now for producer Matt Mitchell. I am Chad Milman.

Until next time, please download the podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast. Give us a five-style review. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Love you. Hey, Singles. Do you feel like a tourist in your own town? Too busy to enjoy all your city has to offer. Events and Adventures organizes up to 30 unique get-togethers around town each and every month. We do all the work, so you have all the fun. On your schedule, visit places you didn't even know were places, and get to know the fellow singles you didn't know you needed in your life. Fall in love with your hometown all over again by joining events and adventures. Get

started by visiting events and adventures.com today. That's events and adventures.com. The more we learn about COVID-19, the more questions we have. The biggest question now? What's next? What will COVID bring in? six months, a year. If you're feeling anxious about the future, you're not alone. Cal Hope offers free COVID-19 emotional support. Call 833-3-3-3-1-7-3 or live chat at calhope.org today. What's spring like in winter's favorite town, Park City, Utah?

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Unhumor me with Robert Smygle and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you, funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-heart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

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84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick you here, unpack what we. went down and tried to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

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