The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Herd Saturday Special 01/05/2019

Episode Date: January 5, 2019

Colin talks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio about all four NFL Wild Card games and which side the sharps in Vegas are on in this exclusive podcast  Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

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Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, everybody, here we go. RJ Bell, who hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports betting. Weekday 6 to 7 Eastern, 3 to 4 Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. He's, of course, the founder of pregame.com, which is the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. Twitter is at RJ in Vegas. I do not do Blazing 5 in the playoffs because I don't generally find more than maybe one at most games that I would bet.

Here's one I would not bet, RJ. Texans minus one. My gut feeling says I'll take the Colts plus a point. I just don't like a team with a bad offensive line. I think the Colts have an edge of quarterback O line and maybe coach. And I think they're just a hotter football team trending in the right direction. What would the wise guys say? Well, first off, the most important thing, Colin, you said this week on your show for betters was that concept of a typical NFL week.

There's 16 games. And here there's four games. So the idea you're going to bet five games on a typical week, but you're going to bet four games or even two games this week. Just do the math. So be careful if you're trying to make money at this. Because if you bet three of these games that say, it's a problem. And this is the game I like the least. Because here's the rationale. I agree, by the way. This was my least. I love luck and this is the game I would never bet.

And I think that it's because of the line, right? Texans are at home. If these teams were even, the line would be three. The line of one is saying the Colts are clearly the better team. I think that sounds right. Now, the Colts started 1 and 5. They finished 9 and 1. those 10 games, the Colts were the best team in the NFL, meaning if the last 10 games started the season as the first 10 games, we'd be entering week 11 with the Colts considered to be, from the Vegas perspective, the very best team in the NFL. The question is, do you just throw out the first six games, or do you blend the whole season? So how are you approaching the Colts? Are you saying, oh, Andrew Luck got healthier, oh, the defense got better,

or are you just looking at the whole season and saying, hey, this is a wildcard team? No, I mean, I like the Colts better about week eight, but I do think in the last couple of weeks, I don't like what I see with the Texans. I don't think it's an optimistic locker room. I think it's a bad old line, a banged-up secondary, and I think the Colts kind of have a whammy on them, psychologically that Houston knows. Late in games, Andrew Luck has torn us apart. So I like the locker room and the vibe and the feel of the Colts.

If I had to bet, I'd take Indy, but it's my least favorite game. Now, you mentioned, oh, Houston, you know, question marks and all that. You know, they're 11 and 2, their last 13. Yeah, no, they're winning games. So you're right, because we've been saying the same things is a lot of coin flip wins for sure. Now, a couple of quick problems here if you do, because it sounds like we like the Colts. Here's a couple of reasons not to, I think. They played on Sunday night, the Colts, and now they have the early Saturday game.

So that's the shortest rest period. And obviously the Colts were on the road Sunday night and now against Tennessee. And now they're actually on the road again early Saturday. Also, so to me, I think the rest factor is a negative. And one last thing is running quarterbacks are more dangerous in the playoffs because they're willing to run the ball more. They're not as worried about injury. And when a guy like Watson is willing to run the ball more, he is dangerous. Okay, here's the game I would most bet.

Dallas minus two against Seattle. I mean, I think Seattle's never been a team because of where they are geographically. They're the most traveled team in the league. And I've never felt as comfortable with Pete Carolyn Russell on the road. I think Dallas, meanwhile, since Amari arrived, has become a very tough home team. team. They rested Zeke. They rested Zach Martin. I like where their heads at. I think Dallas wins this game by a touchdown. That's my favorite bet of the week. What are the wise guys say? I agree with you for sure. Dallas is the right side. Probably not my favorite, but the right

side. And let's talk about Amari Cooper. Since he came to the team, 70 more passing yards per game for the Cowboys. Last half of the season, Dallas 7 and 1 straight up. Only loss was that flat spot. Remember, you had the, if I recall the Colts in that game, Dallas went too indie and that was a horrible flat spot and that's their only loss, right? But the line is below three. Dallas at home. You mentioned it. Dallas, a very good home team this year especially. So the question is, wait a minute. So Seattle is supposed to be the better team. Make the case for that. I mean, how does someone even playing devil's advocate make that case? Well, yeah. And also, when you look at Seattle on the road,

I remember they beat Arizona in Oakland. It's not like they didn't have a lot of impressive road wins. Well, listen, that could be the question of the week. If you say Arizona, road win for Seattle, Oakland, then Detroit, and then Carolina, which doesn't sound bad. Yeah, so, I mean, they didn't go on the road and beat a really good team. Well, listen, Carolina was in the middle of a seven-game losing streak. So I think far from a really good team for sure.

And the only thing that concerns me here is the concept of Dallas the last seven years. So don't count this year, but the prior seven was much, much better on the road relative to other teams. So now it's one season of having a strong home field advantage. What's changed? Is it just a fluky eight games that they just played better at home? If Dallas is as good at home as they've been this season, this is a best season. this is a best bat. I just, that's the one question mark for me.

When you got eight years and seven of them says, you're a little bit better on the road, and one of them says home, I know the most recent years the most important, but that concerns me. In sports, there are smart moves and not so smart moves, like calling a timeout to set up a final touchdown attempt. That's smart, but calling a timeout with no timeouts left,

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The number is three. Mostly because of this. I think if you face a T-B-O, you face a T-B-O-W-E-A-L-A-R-A-E-A. Lamar Jackson a second time in short. You know, they're hard to face the first time. But it's a very simple offense. They're not doing a ton. It's assignment football.

And I think the Chargers defense, which will be healthy in the backfield now, they weren't the first time. Chargers actually a better road team than a home team. And I think a second look at Lamar Jackson, I like the Chargers doing out right here with the points I love them. What would the wise guys say? Now, are you listening to Straight Out of Vegas? No.

Because I got to, no, wait, you said you do often, but just not every day this week. Because I got to be honest, I mean, you're on every key point. To me, the most important factor in this game is the second matchup against a quirky scheme, against a running quarterback that obviously is limited. I mean, Lamar Jackson's the most limited quarterback. He's six and one in his starts. Let's give him credit. But as of right now, a running quarterback.

where the Chargers were by far the best defense they faced during Lamar Jackson's time. And now that's saying, but here's the thing, that Chargers defense didn't play so well. Did you end up going to that game? Yeah. Okay. I mean, watching it from the, you know, being there. Well, the field was a mess. So, and San Diego didn't have its top two running back.

So to me, the game was, you know, I mean, I saw the personnel. But how did that affect the defense? I mean, the Chargers, it seems like if the field was a match. mess. That'd be an advantage for the D, wouldn't it? Well, I just, I kind of, I didn't take a ton from the game. I felt they were both good teams out of it. I didn't feel like the Chargers offensively were at full strength. I thought the Ravens were this new, fangled offense that nobody could get their arms around.

I feel like this will be a truer game. I agree with you. It's just what concerns me is I actually personally like the Chargers in that game. And when Lamar Jackson ran effectively against them, it concerned me. But I think having a second crack at this quirky scale. scheme is a big advantage for the Chargers. Also, first playoff game, obviously, for Lamar Jackson. Let's talk about the Chargers on the road.

Best road team in the NFL, 7-1 straight up, 7-1 against the spread. We just talked about Seattle's, not having any road wins of note. Check out these road wins. They beat Seattle, they beat Pittsburgh, and they beat Kansas City. On the road, the Chargers. That's amazing. One negative, and this is my big. best bat. Chargers plus three would be my best bat, but it's a 10 a.m. Pacific start.

I hate that. And the Chargers were at Denver last week. So L.A., Denver, L.A., all the way back across the country, that's a negative. Man, don't let your age beat you. It is time to refine your prime with MDrive. It's the perfect daily supplement for me, and it can be for you, too. Why? Because it contains clinically tested ingredients that help increase your energy and boost natural testosterone level. Helps you increase your performance, strength, stamina, and drive. I trust MDrive because it was created by a world-renowned

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You know, listen, Philadelphia plus six and a half with Nick Foles. I like it. They have a better, I think their D-Lines great. I have a Super Bowl winning coach. Foles, for some reason, in the short time span, is better than Wence. I don't think long-term. is. But boy, this line, when I look at this, Vegas is begging me to bet the Eagles. It feels like they're begging me to bet the Eagles. So my takeaway is Philadelphia is going to get smoked.

But I would as a better, and again, I'm staying away from this game, I would have to take Philly in the points. That defensive line's going to make Trubisky struggle. But am I crazy? Is Vegas begging me to take Philadelphia? You know, if you look at this line on Thursday, it was Chicago by six. I felt like it was a little fat there, whereas my line would have been five, five and a half. The fact that's gone up to six and a half in the last 24 hours really concerns me.

Because who's betting on Thursday night, Friday morning? It's not Freddie Fannie Pack. It's not the guy betting 50 bucks a game. It's the professionals. And six isn't, you know, if you're saying, yeah, let me bet it even at six, the bears, that concerns me. My personal instincts were the Eagles, too.

Fos, we can talk all we want about, oh, well, Foles is a backup quarterback, and oh, Wence was a top two draft choice, all these different things. But if you just look at the QBR doing the last eight starts of Fos, it's like a top five in the NFL. So at some point, let's give the guy credit. He's got a Super Bowl ring.

And let's think of the psychology of the Eagles. entering that Rams game, Philadelphia had a 5% chance to even make the playoffs. Now, they're three games away from returning to the Super Bowl. I think you're going to see a fever pitch from Philadelphia.

And I'm worried about Trubisky. Now, you know, I've heard you throughout the season, Colin. Let me ask you, I really thought Nagy was just coaching him up like crazy early. Have you become more optimistic about Trubisky in the second half of the season? No, I think he's a,

poor man's Garoppolo, I think there is a very much a Lamar Jackson quality here, is that they're running something contrary into the league. And I think... But the league hasn't caught up. Well, because I think Nagy's really clever. I think he's a better coach than Sean McVeigh. I just, Sean McVeigh's got better cheekbones. And abs, I heard you were thought.

Yeah. So, I mean, I think Nagy's done a great job. I think Trubisky's incredibly average thrower of the football. And I just, I don't try. I think Foles, who's got limitations, are very good thrower of the football. So two last things here. The Eagles have one glaring weakness, which is defensive backs. I think that's probably the best weakness to have against Chicago,

meaning Trubisky in his first playoff start, is he really going to be able to exploit those debacks? That's probably the question. If you believe in Trubisky, I think you got to like the Bears. I don't. I like Philadelphia. One tip. If you do like Philadelphia, look to play the money line.

So what's that mean? It means them just to win the game out right. Right? Because I do think if this is a close game late, it's a huge advantage for a very experienced playoff team, the Eagles versus the Bears. Good stuff, buddy, RJ Bell, pregame.com at RJ in Vegas. Good talking to you. Thank you, Colin. Last night, a blown call changed a game.

This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. And every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to

hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Life is full of hurdles. So how do you keep going? On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most.

most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches, and Olympic champions, about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the entire world, like, I can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest, Alliance I've ever reported on, a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman.

Multimillion dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Thank you.