The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Herd Saturday Special Podcast: 03/09/2019

Episode Date: March 9, 2019

 Colin has an in-depth conversation with Warren Sharp who works with NFL teams and studies predictive analytics.  They talk about two Super Bowl winning coaches who don't use analytics enough and it... has cost them recently and one coach who uses them more than he will admit.  They also look at a stat that can be used to help predict outcomes at a very high level in this exclusive podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,
Starting point is 00:00:16 breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:00:39 Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:01:03 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
Starting point is 00:01:26 What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:01:48 What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood.
Starting point is 00:02:03 That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis, he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app,
Starting point is 00:02:15 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The next most important statistic, the next most metric to win is an early down success rate battle. That will tell you the most about which team is most likely to win that game. Hi, everybody, and welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Well, we're getting new people every week, and I thought it'd introduce you to Warren Sharp. Sharp Footballstats.com, his Twitter accounts at Sharp Football, Sharp Football Analysis.com. I follow him on Twitter, and he sent me, and his staff sent me his book last year.
Starting point is 00:02:54 And I would compare him a little bit to Phil Steele at the NFL level, where you're getting really kind of a next-level, analytic look, no BS of football that I find fascinating is the sport leans more and more toward analytics. So Warren, I want to start with this. First of all, give me a little bit of your background because I don't know it, and I didn't want to know it. I kind of wanted you to introduce yourself to the audience on our Saturday podcast. Give me a little bit of your background. I appreciate the opportunity, Colin. I am a licensed professional engineer. I studied civil engineering in college, worked in that field for 20 years. And while I was doing that on the side,
Starting point is 00:03:36 I was also looking at sports betting, looking at trying to predict the totals and the sides and game spreads, trying to come up with a model that was more superior to what they use out in Las Vegas. And so I spent a bunch of years doing that, working on that. And as I got into that more and working with some of the pro-betters out in Las Vegas, I became a little bit more interested with the analytics and the metrics because those were giving me more of an edge with my game prognostication, diving deeper into the analytics and the statistics and what teams were and weren't doing,
Starting point is 00:04:09 I think was actually being more helpful and useful in my ability to predict the future. So I spent a lot of time dealing with that, working with that, developing sharp football stats, which is a free-to-use public website with visualized data, and, you know, writing the book and just kind of turning this into a year-round pursuit. I've left my engineering job, which obviously, was a big jump for me, but there were just so many opportunities on the NFL side. I mean, teams were reaching out contacting me. I worked last season as a consultant for a team.
Starting point is 00:04:39 I've got like 10 different teams this season that are interested in having me on board as a consultant, some in full-time roles. And so I'm trying to weigh the pluses and minuses of those decisions, but I'm definitely going to be working for multiple teams this year trying to help them come up on a week-to-week basis with game plans to help attack opponent's weaknesses and try to figure out ways that they can win games each week. And I love doing it. I love spending time studying the NFL. And it's now become a year-round job for me. His Twitter account is at Sharp football. This is Warren Sharp. And, you know, I started picking up on you about two, three years
Starting point is 00:05:16 ago. And you were picking on an individual team or a coach regarding their predictability. I do think Belichick is a notch above the league, but I've always had sort of a belief, Warren, having lived in Connecticut and watched every snap for a decade. They're not brilliant at a lot of things, but they're almost never bad at anything, that they do a very good job of finding their weaknesses and making themselves at least proficient at their weaknesses. Now, obviously, their offensive line coaching has been pretty remarkable for 15 years with Dante Scarnacia. But when I say Patriots to you with sharp analysis, if I said wrap a bowl around analytically why they've been so great, because Belichick was fired in Cleveland, and I don't think any of us think Brady would be quite as good without Bill. Is there something quantitative analytically they'd just do better than everybody? I think there's two things that really are the crux of how great this team has been for well over a decade.
Starting point is 00:06:25 And it starts with analytics in the front office and their ability to keep Tom Brady at a very low contract, a very low cap hit on an annual basis. It looks like he's going to sign a new deal this off season to maintain a very low cap hit. He's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL that's beyond debate, yet he never occupies one of those top two, top three cap hits. He's often years outside the top 10, sometimes top 15. So it's remarkable the fact that he's able to be on that type of a contract, and that gives them a major edge with their team building and the philosophy of building this team.
Starting point is 00:06:59 The team is more important than the individual. And then number two, the other biggest thing that I think just throughout the course of their success has been adaptability. At every level, game planning, especially in-game, adapting some of the things that they thought might work, And that's why you never see these glaring weaknesses that seem to be, like, consistent from one week to the next or, like, cause them a lot of problems throughout the game. Yes, they were going to lose some games. Yes, they have struggles on the offensive line at times. But they're always adapting and modifying things to kind of cover up their weaknesses.
Starting point is 00:07:32 And oftentimes that comes in games with adjustments. And other teams just aren't as quick to make those adjustments and quick to make those changes in game or in season to do things differently. And so that's a real credit and testament to their self-scouting and their willingness to make changes that are going to help their team win games. Now, let's go the other way. Is there a coach or a staff that may have a reputation that is good? But analytically, they are predictable, not as adaptable. Who's an organization or a team or a coach that, for what you do is a little overgraded? I would say just with their success and their history and their ability to kind of make the playoffs and do well, the team that stands out to me is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Starting point is 00:08:24 You know, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that has a very good quarterback, and that's the most important thing in the NFL. And they're always kind of consistently a good, above-average team, but they always struggle with adjusting and adapting their game plan to beat certain opponents. and that's why, for example, they hardly ever have success against the New England Patriots, especially their defense always seems to struggle dealing with them. I know they won a game a while ago against them, but on a consistent basis, this is a team that I feel like isn't kind of like squeezing the juice out of the orange to the extent that they need to. Their roster has been so much better than what they've actually delivered on the field.
Starting point is 00:09:04 I think the same could be true for a former coach around the league, and that was Mike McCarthy and Green Bay. I think that they were struggling as well to get everything out of that team. There's a lot going on with that roster, but obviously they've moved on from him. So I think the current team and leadership that is the most evident to me from that category would be the Pittsburgh Steelers. One of the things I noticed this week, Arizona is an interesting organization. Josh Rosen was put in a very bad spot, and you defended Josh Rosen to some degree, the young quarterback out of UCLA who had a pretty enigmatic first year.
Starting point is 00:09:39 year. Why analytically did you support him? Well, I looked back, you know, at what he dealt with, and I think it's very important. Anytime you're looking at analytics and stats, it's very easy to just like pull up the numbers, let's see what the numbers say, and you ignore a lot of the context that surrounds that, and that's why I focused so much of my work on trying to understand the context because it's such a small sample-sized sport. You have to be able to factor these things in. He switched offense coordinators mid-season. I knew you talked about this on your radio show the other day. He played behind the NFL's worst past protecting offensive line. He had the worst run game. So there's no support in the run game to be balanced. There's no support when he drops
Starting point is 00:10:16 back to pass to pass the football. He's dealing with new play calls and offensive coordinators throughout the course of the season. He's faced with very long distance to go on third and long, third and 8.4 yards to go on average. Just predictable past situations. It was a terrible overall year and some of that was coaching and some of that was personnel that was surrounding him. I kind of looked back at a quarterback in 2016 who just made the Super Bowl this past year, and that's Jared Goff, his rookie season. Jared Goff, if you look at his rookie season, I actually, when I went back and wrote my book following the 2016 season, I felt higher of Jared Goff than what most people were suggesting
Starting point is 00:10:54 he was, simply because looking at and understanding some of the context surrounding him. Now, I think lower of him now than most of the people because I think so much of what he's done has been propped up by his coaching staff. But that 2016 season, he had a pass rating of 65, yards per attempt was 5.4, a 33% success rate, 55% completion rate. Those literally were out of 40 qualifying quarterbacks, either 40th or 39th in the league. Josh Rosen statistically is better than every single one of those numbers that I just listed. And I think what you need to do with Josh Rosen when you're trying to evaluate him is compare them to rookies that are coming out now,
Starting point is 00:11:32 who have dealt with various levels of college competition. You're not going to like just focus entirely on the numbers. You're going to study the tape, find out what he does that's inspiring, look at some of the inconsistencies, understand them. But what can he do? Can he throw with accuracy, timing, anticipation, ball placement? Does he make good decisions? You know, does he have quick feet in the pocket?
Starting point is 00:11:53 And so I think he excels in some of those areas. And I do think that he's being underrated right now by people who are just looking at the year-end statistics from the 2018 season. There's a couple of quarterbacks in the league that got to the playoffs. I generally go with what my eyes tell me initially. Then I deep dive on analytics like yourself. I'll go to your site, Sharp Football, Sharp Football Stats.com. Lamar Jackson and Mitch Trebisky. I think Mitch is a front leg thrower.
Starting point is 00:12:24 I think his ball dies at about 25 yards. And I think Lamar does not throw people open, although he can throw the ball two open people. What do the analytics say about Lamar and Mitch? Now, again, a lot of hype, winning streaks, a lot of love this year. My eyes tell me they're always going to be fairly limited throwers of the football. I would definitely agree in both situations. My concerns with Mitchell Tribusky is just the edges that he received this season,
Starting point is 00:12:53 you know, the upgrades that he received from a team that was very aggressive in free agency, brought in a lot of talents surrounding him, great coaching, decision-making. I think that Andy Reid's style of offense obviously has shown high levels of success for years and years. So I think that Mitchell Trabisky, you know, he was very much like, I want to see what he does this next year. I think it's difficult to really put the stamp of this is what he's going to be after just one year of working with Matt Nagy, but I really do want to see what he does this year because the concern with Mitchell Trabisky is what does he do after this rookie deal is over because he's going to be one of these quarterbacks that I fear could put you into quarterback purgatory. If he has success, makes the playoffs again with a decent defense and a good offensive scheme,
Starting point is 00:13:40 and then you're in a situation where you look back and this is a guy that's gotten you to the playoffs, so to speak, somewhat consistently, and you pay him money. And now, instead of having a rookie deal, which is very affordable, he's occupying a significantly higher percentage of your cap. What are you going to do? How are you going to be able to compete and build that roster out, which was a lot easier to do when he was a rookie. I think Lamar, very different. You really have to scheme your whole team around his strength to take advantage of the running style that he brings the table and the upside there. Obviously, they're doing a good job bringing in a lot of tight ends. They've got a lot of creativity
Starting point is 00:14:15 from that offense and doing something that's very atypical from what the rest of the league is doing, which is going to more pass-heavy attack. So it'll be interesting to see, but I think they themselves obviously realize the limitations that he presents right now. It's a matter of, again, how much more can he developed year two and year three. That's to be determined. I'm not discouraged by what I saw from him necessarily. It kind of was what I was expecting to see. But you really do, and are hoping that you're going to see a little bit of growth and development. So that'll be interesting. More with Warren Sharp after this. When men and women upgrade from their tattered, outdated multi-pack underwear to Tommy John, the most comfortable on the planet, they have a lot to say
Starting point is 00:14:54 about it. Like Scott, who's happy his double agents are no longer going wrong. or Melissa, whose Tommy Johns are so light and comfortable, she worries she'll forget to pull them down when she goes to the bathroom. Point is, men and women across America are crazy about Tommy John. Over six million pairs sold. No wedgy guarantee. Stay put waistbands, a range of fabrics. For ladies, the new air collection is made from quick drying, seamless, bonded edges that offer no
Starting point is 00:15:26 visible panty line. Tommy John is absolutely certain you'll love it. They have a best pair you'll ever wear or it's free guarantee. Go to Tommyjohn.com slash hurt. That'll get you 20% off your first order. That's Tommyjohn.com slash H-E-R-D. Tommyjohn.com slash h-E-R-D. Back with Warren Sharp, Sharp Football Analysis.com, Sharpfootballstats.com. You can follow them on Twitter at Sharp Football. You know, you talked initially about you were an engineer and then you moved in to finding analytics that would make you a more successful football better. I've done the Blazing Five for about a decade. Never had a losing season, mostly generally between 57 and a half and 61%, which, you know, it's not bad. I take five games a week.
Starting point is 00:16:13 I usually love about three or four. Did you find anything work? I had this argument, not an argument. I had this belief for a long time. that the most underrated stat in football was third down conversion rate because it told me so many things. It told me about your play calling,
Starting point is 00:16:30 the push your offensive line gets. How are you in crisis? Can your quarterback audible to line of scrimmage and adapt? And that's a stat I've always looked at. There's other stats like past defense. I think it's wildly overrated. You know, Peyton Manning's teams played with a lead.
Starting point is 00:16:48 So obviously, you were often passing against the Colts, trying to beat Peyton Manning late in games and those Colts defenses, which were good situationally, often gave up big chunks of passing yards in the fourth quarter. Are there certain stats or analytics that you look at or somebody listening could look at that do help in sports gambling and football betting? Yeah, the one that I am the most in love with right now is early down success rate. And that's actually kind of the opposite of the third down conversion rate. It doesn't suggest that if you're bad on third downs, you're going to be good early-down success rate.
Starting point is 00:17:23 But what I feel like has been so telltale in terms of teams having success in the NFL is their ability to bypass third downs entirely. You remember, like I do, when we used to watch football and they threw up those graphic packages that took up the entirety of the screen, one of the things that they always would throw up there is what are you on third-down conversions? Are you four of 12? Are you three of six? but what I always started to look at is what's that second number? How many times are you getting forced into third down? Because even good teams, good offenses are not going to have great days on third down,
Starting point is 00:17:59 especially if they're forced into third and medium to third and long situations at a fairly decent clip during a particular game. So it's about minimizing that second number and reducing the number of times that you are forced into third down. What we're seeing now around the league is a lot more passing on first down. And that's raising the floor on the yards that you're going to gain on first down because the completion rate has increased tremendously. It's not like more than 15 years ago that the completion rate wasn't more than like 60%. Now this past season completion rate on first and 10 passes in the first half was 67 and a half percent, 8.2 yards per attempt on these
Starting point is 00:18:38 passes. So a very high floor, like what's the worst that's going to happen on this pass, normally it would be you gain zero yards or maybe you get sacked. But in this case, you're not going to gain zero yards as often because the completion rate is higher. So offenses are getting more efficient on first down. How often can you bypass those third downs? Because on third down, a lot of times you're going to be faced with this situation. If you don't convert here, I'm going to have to kick the ball in some form or fashion punt or kick a field goal. In addition, you oftentimes take longer to call that third down play.
Starting point is 00:19:08 You give the defense more time to substitute people on. And obviously, the third down conversion rate is lower than what it is on second. down if you're at second and three versus third and three, it's going to be easier to convert on that second and three because you've got more of your playbook at your disposal because you're not necessarily going just for that first down. You could be more likely to take a shot down the field or something like that. So the defense has to defend more things and then you can be more creative and have a higher upside. So statistically, if you look back at early down success rate, which is something I kind of created like eight years ago or so, the success rate when you win the early down
Starting point is 00:19:44 battle is the next most predictive statistic to turnovers in a football game. In terms of correlating to victory. Now, you can also use it in a predictive manner, which I incorporate in some of my models, but if you're looking at what statistic, because you can't predict turnovers, obviously, so what statistics correlate the most to wins and losses in the league? Turnovers are number one at like just around 80%. But the next most important statistic, the next most metric to win is an early-down success rate battle. That will tell you the most about which team is most likely to win that game if you're just looking at the box score. Sharp FootballStats.com.
Starting point is 00:20:20 Sharpfootballanalysis.com. His name is Warren Sharp. An engineer into analytics with gambling now NFL teams are using him. If I said to you, give me two or three teams that you feel analytically are very driven by analytics because we've seen in baseball and basketball, Houston, Golden State, very analytic. Lakers, frankly, not. we've seen in baseball, Cubs, Red Sox very analytic, Dodgers very analytic,
Starting point is 00:20:46 Cleveland very analytic driven, some of the other teams not. If I said you, give me a couple of teams you feel are very analytic driven in the NFL, and then a couple that aren't or are a little more reluctant. What names would pop out? New England definitely, they sweep it under the rug. They try to make it seem like they don't use it as much, but they have a very sophisticated analytics department up there and are great at incorporating those both in-game with the citizens.
Starting point is 00:21:11 decision-making as well as in game planning. I think the Philadelphia Eagles are a team that's on the cutting edge with their usage of analytics as well. And I think another team like the Indianapolis Colts are in a great trajectory as well from that perspective. I think teams that are not, I don't want to say these teams don't have the analytics departments necessarily, although the Chargers, at least up to the start of last season, definitely did not have an analytics department.
Starting point is 00:21:37 And that was mind-boggling to me. So they're a team that, you know, Philip Rivers, he's a guy that I root for because I love his competitiveness and his grit. And I want to see a guy like that have a little bit of success before his great story career ends. And, you know, they just need a little bit of help to get over the hump. I think if they studied analytics a little bit more, they could get there. Another team out west is the Seattle Seahawks. I knew it. This is a team that it just doesn't seem to care much about what's the most efficient way to win football games.
Starting point is 00:22:05 And they go with, like, the gut of what Pete Carroll wants to do. and it really works against them. It makes it harder for them. They've got a great quarterback like Russell Wilson. They're actually paying him a big contract now. They don't have him on his rookie deal anymore. They had to pay him some money. Use him.
Starting point is 00:22:20 Let him throw the football a little bit and play into more plus EV situations, which analytics would dictate, but they kind of go in the opposite direction with their run-heavy mentality. Yeah, it doesn't surprise me. I've been critical of Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll, where they run, I would say, a looser culture, a louder culture, a pro-player culture. And I think sometimes both Tomlin and Pete Carroll,
Starting point is 00:22:43 though they're very good coaches, beat themselves. Warren Sharp is joining us. I'll say, I want to go and talk about a couple of units. The Dallas Cowboys Offensive Line was seen as a great unit about three years ago. But analytically this year, my eyes told me they weren't as good. What do you make of the Cowboys Offensive Linefront? What are the numbers say? Well, you're absolutely right.
Starting point is 00:23:06 They definitely took a big step back in terms of their ability to get push in terms of their ability to sustain blocks quite as well. And that really impacted them. I think what the Dallas Cowboys need to do is allow DAC to be a little bit more creative in the pocket and do more things with his arm. Also, don't be afraid to let him run the football a little bit more. They are a team that, in my opinion, the more tape gets out there, the easier it is for defenses and you have to adapt. offensively and try some new things. It worked well for the Cowboys, you know, a couple of years ago when Dak was there because he was young, he was new, and they were able to get a lot of production out of that
Starting point is 00:23:47 offensive line and rely on him. My concern is what is this team going to look like in a couple of years when they have to pay Dak and Zeke at the same time, perhaps, unless they pay one of them early. You're devoting a lot more money than what you were when both these guys were on their rookie deals, and what are you going to have as a defense? because that had been like their big weakness for several years, and then they kind of stapled it up a little bit the past year or two, but now that can have some more cracks in it if you're not able to get as many good players.
Starting point is 00:24:16 And then the offensive line, like you mentioned, I mean, that had been the heart and soul, but in terms of their ability to run block, but clearly that was not quite as strong last season as teams kind of adapted a little bit to them and some of their play dropped off a little bit. More with Warren Sharp after this. One of the things I love about Dollar Shave Club, they've got everything I need. I want to look, feel, smell my best. Okay, I never have to go to the store.
Starting point is 00:24:37 That's because, one, Dollar Shave Club delivers everything I need to my door, and two, they keep me fully stocked on what I use so I don't run out. Here's how it works. Dollar Shave Club has everything you need to get ready, and they have this new program where they automatically keep you stocked up on the products that you use regularly. So you determine what you want and when you want it, and it shows up right at your door from once a month to once every six months.
Starting point is 00:24:58 That's what I do. Dollar Shave Club's got their toothpaste. I use that. You set it up automatically. It can get sent to you. never runs out. You never wake up in the morning and go, oh, God, I don't have any toothpaste. My mouth is cleaner, fresher, teeth are whiter. They have a handsome discount. More you buy, the more you save. Right now, they've got a bunch of starter sets. Try any of them for five bucks.
Starting point is 00:25:17 Why don't you try the oral care kit? After that, the restock box shipped regular-sized products at a regular price. So what are you waiting for? Get your starter set. Right now, five bucks. That's it. At dollarshaveclub.com slash Colin. Dollarshaveclub.com slash Colin. Warren Sharp at Sharp Football is joining us on our Saturday morning podcast. You can go to sharpfootball stats.com. You know, Warren, as you kind of look at the entire league, and I think more and more, not that analytics don't matter in the NFL, I think they matter in anything.
Starting point is 00:25:46 But there is, I also joke, it's called man analytics. You are dealing with alpha males. You don't want to reduce these 23-year-olds, just the numbers. You want to make them feel good about themselves. Play fast, play hard, play intense. When you do your analytics, if I said to you, the 100 best players in the NFL, would there be names that would surprise people? They're just incredibly, incredibly valuable analytically, but they wouldn't jump off the board. Fans would go, wow, I can't believe that player is at that spot.
Starting point is 00:26:22 I would definitely say yes. I mean, I don't have like a listing of my top 100 players to kind of go over with you right now. But I think in general, there certainly are players that are vastly underrated. And these are some of the players that smart teams end up going and acquiring that get some of these deals around the league. And you're kind of like, wow, like this guy didn't seem very coveted. His prior team didn't use him enough. Right. Didn't seem to use him well.
Starting point is 00:26:48 But all of a sudden, some of these better teams out there are going and acquiring these players. I wonder what, you know, like when Bill Bill. Belichick goes and takes West Welker from the dolphins. Those are the types of moves that make you say, okay, their analytics were showing that this guy was significantly more valuable than what the dolphins realized in how they were using him. I think around the league, one of the positions in general, that's going to become more valuable, I think,
Starting point is 00:27:13 is just like forecasting and talking about the future, is the tight end position. Tight end passes, if you look at virtually any down-and-distance, are more successful than passes to wide receivers. They just have a higher success rate, which is another way to measure efficiency. And they're more reliable. Tight ends can also block, even if they're not great blocking tight ends, being able to stick them out there to help at the end of the line of scrimmage
Starting point is 00:27:37 is going to be far more superior than having a running back come up and try to chip on a guy who's got a full head of steam and is already charging ahead. So there's definitely an advantage to utilizing tight ends. I think a lot of tight ends around the league are somewhat underrated or especially underutilized. You look at some of the tight ends they have down in Tampa Bay. Like they're not using some of those players enough as much as they should. We've got a great crop of tight ends that's about to enter the league in this season's draft. The other thing that you look at when you talk about tight ends real quick is the usage of 12 personnel.
Starting point is 00:28:08 12 personnel is one running back, two tight ends. What we saw is a bigger trend towards passing the football last year, but teams were getting less creative when they passed it. Most passes come from three wide receiver sets, which is considered 11 personnel, one running back, one tight end. and three wide receivers. Teams last year passed the ball more, but all they did is just up the percentage of 11 personnel from 69% of all passes from 11 up to 73% last year. But the fact of the matter is that 12 personnel is more successful.
Starting point is 00:28:37 It's 6% more successful, passes out of 12, average one more yard per attempt, has a higher touchdown rate, lower interception rate, lower sack rate due to having an extra tight end out on the field to help block. I believe that the trend needs to be towards adding another tight end, end on the field, and you could pass out a spread from 12 personnel. It doesn't have to be a run formation. You can still spread out the offense, stick these tight ends out in the slot, or even out wide. They're just such great receivers right now and present such mismatches to the
Starting point is 00:29:07 defense. So I think some tight ends would surprise you being on that list of being valuable players, even though, like, statistically, maybe they shouldn't deserve to be there. I think these guys are just being utilized, underutilized or used in the wrong manner. And conversely, I tend to think speed, deep, threat-wide receivers are the home run hitters of baseball. You can't rely on them. I think Sammy Watkins is overrated. I think Brandon Cooks is overrated. They're the opposite of the tight end.
Starting point is 00:29:37 It's a lower percentage position. Often when the weather gets bad and it gets windy late, I mean, even Randy Moss did very little for New England in the playoffs. He was remarkable in September, October, November, and early December. I believe I always I call receivers icing not the cake. It's called carrot cake, not carrot icing. I think Watkins and Brandon cooks jump out to me to be fast, flashy assets that I can't depend on. What's the analysis say on the speed merchant, the big playwide receiver running down field? What are the numbers say?
Starting point is 00:30:12 Right. I think the biggest factor here is how much are of the cap are you taking up with these players? How much are they actually worth to your team and how much, you know, do they cost? Because we know these types of players can have big seasons, especially if some other players get injured, especially if you're a team that's playing from behind a little bit. So you have to throw the ball down the field a little bit more often that can inflate the numbers of these guys. And then they go to, like, a better team and they just don't get the utilization. And we see it time and time again, much like Brandon Cooks or Sammy Watkins,
Starting point is 00:30:42 both of those guys that you just mentioned. I believe that it's very important to be able to incorporate explosive plays in addition to having high success rate plays. We're talking about bypassing third downs, so you don't want to have too many shot plays deep passes because those are the lower percentage type passes. But you do need to have an element of that, even if you're not throwing it to that guy every single time. But I would prefer to have a speedster who is very underpaid and not nearly as productive in the league. I think that having a guy like that on the football field is akin to running play action. The numbers with play action tell us that it really doesn't matter who the running back is in the backfield, whether it's Todd Gurley or C.J. Anderson or Kelly, it doesn't necessarily matter who the guy is.
Starting point is 00:31:29 You are still going to prey on the instincts of that defense to, for those linebackers to step up or hesitate for a split second, which is all that you need running play action to create a Seymour lane or an opening behind them to complete the ball. Same is true with speed-wide receivers. Yes, of course, you stick a Tyree kill out there. The defense is going to have more respect for him than if you stuck another speed-wide receiver out there that's lower names. But in many cases, you're still going to get the same general type of respect because what's one thing that offenses or defenses don't want to have happen, especially Bill Belichick and the Patriots, they do not want to be beat on a single play. They hate being beat over the top.
Starting point is 00:32:08 So even if you stick an underpaid speed guy out there, the defense is going to be able to. going to have to adjust to respect and account for that. So I would prefer having a guy like that on my roster, but I definitely do not want one of the top 10 guys who are going to allocate too much of the salary cap to them. It's just not as efficient as spending of that money as other positions are. Hope you got smarter this Saturday, everybody. His name is Warren Sharp. Twitter is at Sharp football. A good 20 minutes spent, getting smarter. We're going to bring you back on time to time. Really love what you do, Warren. And thanks so much for taking time. for our show.
Starting point is 00:32:43 Happy to do a call, and thanks for having me. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
Starting point is 00:32:53 That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight
Starting point is 00:33:03 to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:33:20 Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement home. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 00:33:44 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Clivert Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out.
Starting point is 00:34:09 Look. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Rhett, Mom, I want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam?
Starting point is 00:34:30 It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood. That's how personal it got.
Starting point is 00:34:46 Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis coming to you, he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed Human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.