The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Herd Saturday Special Podcast: 09/01/2018

Episode Date: September 1, 2018

Colin talks with RJ Bell and Brad Powers of Pregame.com about some of the best bets for the upcoming College Football season as well as some over/under win totals in the NFL in this exclusive Podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Life is full of hurdles. So how do you keep going? On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches and Olympic champions about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the entire world. Like, I can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor?

It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, welcome in to the Saturday morning podcast. We did this a year ago and everybody liked it, where we brought on RJ Bell from pregame.com and Brad Powers, his senior college football analyst at pregame.com. and we're going to do a little college and a little pro, and we've got good feedback, and I'm really excited because there's two or three college football games this weekend that are gigantic,

and I'll be on the couch watching them. So, guys, you're ready to go? Absolutely, Colin. Let's do it. All right, RJ. Let's start with you and Brad, Michigan, Notre Dame. That is Saturday, late night NBC. My takeaway, Brad, on this is that with Michigan, I get the better defense, and I think I get the better head coach.

And to be honest with you, Shea Patterson, may play in the NFL, so I may argue that I get a better quarterback. I'm going to take Michigan close in this one. It is at Notre Dame. Take it away, Brad. Who do you like? What's the number and why? Right there with you, and I like Michigan plus the points here, plus one for the

Wolverines. And you look at the defense, Colin, for Michigan, going up against a Notre Dame offense that loses their top running back, top wide receiver, top two offensive line, not on Notre Dame's team last year, and all of college football. Both guys went in the top 10 of the NFL draft. I think significant matchup edge for that Michigan defense. Better head coach. Look, whether you think Shea Patterson is going to be good, great, or above average,

I don't think anyone could argue that he's not at least a significant upgrade over what they had last year, a quarterback. Love the Wolverines here, Colin. And Colin, this is an interesting game because if you would have bet this in June, so these games of the year numbers came out in June, is actually Michigan was a six to seven point underdog in this game. and it's been Michigan, Michigan, and batting, moving it up to about Pickham now. By the way, Brandon Wimbush is the quarterback for Notre Dame.

A little more comfortable as a runner than a thrower. That's fair to say, right? Absolutely. And you look at his passing stats from a year ago, completed less than 50% of his passes. And now you're asking him to have some success against what many consider to be the best secondary in college football this year. I'm not buying it. Okay. Let's go to Washington, Auburn.

My takeaway is Auburn's front seven defensively is full of NFL guys. And I love their quarterback. I think Stidham's an NFL quarterback, maybe a third round guy. Washington doesn't have any unit, in my opinion, as good as Auburn's front seven defensively. But I don't think they have a lot of weaknesses, whereas Auburn, I think, is rebuilding their offensive line and I don't love their secondary. My gut feeling is I think Auburn's front seven defensively will,

eventually wear down Washington's O-line, so I probably do a slight lean with Auburn minus a couple points. Give me the line currently. Brad, what do you think? Yeah, currently Auburn's a two-point favorite game is in Atlanta, Georgia, so right off the bat, got to give Auburn a point, point-and-a-half of home field advantage. I mean, keep in mind, Colin, this is the third straight game. Auburn is playing in this stadium and obviously a travel spot for Washington, but I'm going to lean with the Husky. here. I think they got the better coach. Chris Peterson, no one's going to argue that. You look at the more experienced team.

Washington is that. And look, Gus Malzon, I think, is overrated. Great job for him getting $40-plus million dollars contract after beating Georgia and Alabama a year ago at home. But away from home against good teams, he just doesn't have it, Colin. One in nine straight up,

one and nine against a number last ten games away from home against good teams. All right, let's go to the third game I'm really interested with. I love Mark Rick. I don't know if he's an A-plus coach, but I think he's a recruiter. I think he's an organizer. So Miami plays LSU in Arlington, Texas. That's a Sunday night game on ABC. My overall takeaway is, I like Miami in this spot for one reason, is that I think because they were really choppy at the end of last year. They're still building a program. They don't have a ton of depth. And so I think a lot of people,

I think they're the team in college football this year that could be a top six team, but nobody acknowledges it because it was an ugly end to last year. but I got to tell you, when I watch them in big spots, there was a lot to love in the first nine weeks. And I don't, you know, Ed Orsioran, Mark Rick, I think I get a huge Miami coaching advantage. I'm going to take Miami lay the points. What's the number of your thoughts?

Yeah, I couldn't agree with you more. Miami's a three and a half point favorite games in Arlington, Texas. I like the hurricanes for much of what you just said, Colin. The number one, you got a major coaching advantage here with Mark Rick, Ed Orgeron, on the hot seat forum. Miami, you're correct. Some people, just are down on Miami because what happened at the end of last season? They lost each of their last three games, got blown out by Clemson and the ACC championship game. LSU is one of the least experienced teams in the entire country, changing offensive coordinators again.

Joey Burrow, the transfer from Ohio State is going to be making his first career start against that Miami defense. Give me the canes minus the points. All right, let's go to what was Vegas's reaction, Brad, on the Urban Meyer mess. How did Vegas react? Well, the original reaction was to downgrade Ohio State about two and a half or three points. And what that does for a season win total for Ohio State, it's worth about a half a win as all. And we're talking about one of the best coaches in college football for at least the last quarter century, if not all of college football history, about a two and a half three point downgrade. Now that would have been if he had been out the whole year, it would have been a half a win.

Now that it's just a couple games, much, much less. Much less. In fact, the season win total hasn't moved at all now in the marketplace. And let's look at the week one game, Colin. Ohio State right now is laying 38 and a half points after the Irvin-Myers been suspended. Prior to the news, they were a 38-point favorite. And there's been, Colin, a ton of big bets on the Buckeyes this week. There's a sense that they want to make a statement because they can pretty much name their score against Oregon State.

They're going to want to make a statement. A lot of sharp Buckeye money week one. Oh, that's good. Can I give you an underrated team? I'm going to give you an underrated team and a team I don't know what the heck to make of it. Underrated team Texas. Now, Tom Herman still, he's coaching other people's players. In fact, his first recruiting class was, I mean, he didn't have any time. So, but I kind of like his young quarterback. And I got to be honest with you. After they got it figured out in the first couple of weeks, they should have beaten USC. I kind of think Texas is better than people think.

What's Vegas' takeaway? Vegas's takeaway is they completely agree. No team took more money as far as these college game of the year lines, and those are the big games like Texas, Oklahoma. That line opened. Texas, a 12-point underdog. That line right now, Colin, is five.

Texas, that line moved a touchdown. Wow! Yeah, Texas getting a lot of money against USC, getting a lot of money as far as season win total jumped up a full win for them. Personally, I agree with you. I have a lot of Texas tickets. I like what I see. It's an experienced team, 14 returning starters.

Last year, much better than their 7 and 6 record. Indicating, lost 4 games by 5 points or less. A lot of those were to elite teams. Oklahoma, USC, Oklahoma State. Texas, I'll tell you, a lot of these coaches, these elite coaches, make that move in year 2. We've seen Bob Stoops

win a title in year 2. Jim Tressel. Last year, Kirby Smart made a move in year 2. I think Texas is that team that makes a big move nationally in year 2 under Tom Herman. And the confusing team to me is USC. I know some USC boosters. They're not sold on Clay Helton. They return a ton of good players. They got three veterans to stay like Lobodon, Cam Smith, Port Augustin. They should be good up front defensively, but they got a freshman quarterback. What is Vegas?

What do you think of USC? Well, first off, the market is not buying USC early in the season. Now, for the full season, not much movement on the season, the season win total for USC, but early in the season, they're fading the Trojans, and it makes a lot of sense because, Colin, first time since 1980, USC has to replace their starting quarterback, their top rusher, and leading receiver from the previous year. And you look at that schedule early on, you're asking J.T. Daniels, that true freshman go on the road to Stanford week two, on the road to Texas week three, and get the job done. The betters in Vegas are fading the Trojans early in the season. I'll get back to Brad and RJ in a second. Upstart has revolutionized how we

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When you look at who replaces them, I mean, these are big time programs, right? I mean, except Wyoming, they're a bowl teams and we know about them. Who is the hardest guy to replace according to Vegas, which would give us some sense on what Vegas thinks of all these rookie NFL quarterbacks? back. Yeah, it's not even close. I mean, most of the guys, Baker Mayfields, the Josh Allens, the Josh Rosens of the world of Mar Jackson worth about three points because the backups that's replacing them are pretty good. The biggest downgrade by far is Sam Darnold, your guy going to a true freshman J.T. Daniels. At least at the start of the season, the downgrade from going from Darnold to J.T. Daniels is about a touchdown.

Far more than Baker Mayfield to Kyler Murray. That's about a field goal downgrade. So significant downgrade, Darnold having to replace. some. All right, let's shift to the NFL. That was Brad Powers, by the way, who's the senior college football analyst, pregame.com. And you've heard him straight out of Vegas radio show on Fox Sports Radio. All right, RJ, let's go to the NFL. And Brad, you can jump in whenever you want. Let's go NFL regular season over underwind totals. The one that jumps out to me, Carolina's at nine. I would bet the under on that. First of all, their schedule, they face a lot of good quarterbacks. They've got a new offensive coordinator. I love Carolina's front

but I can make the argument that the NFC South, the top three teams, that's the best division in the National Football League. So Carolina 9, I bet the under, feels inflated. Of the over-unders, what's getting bet? No, I think Carolina Under certainly has gotten sharp action. And you mentioned it, Turner and Shula out at offensive coordinator. And typically the first third to half of a season with a new coordinator, expect a little downplay. Not always, not every game, but in general it takes a while to learn that system.

Another example for Carolina of a team that tends to regress, how did they do in one-score games? Because in one-score games, it's pretty much a coin flip if you win or lose. Carolina, eight and one last season in one-score games. If they had won four or five instead of eight, we'd be thinking about Carolina very differently. they got lucky in those games. That typically doesn't continue.

Agree with you under Carolina. Okay, I'm also under on the Raiders 8. I don't feel, I just don't think football's like Silicon Valley. It's very fluid. There are weekly changes. Good Lord, 10 years out of coaching, Khalil Mack situation,

Raiders Under 8 feels like, along with Carolina under 9, a real moneymaker for me, what does Vegas think? If we were speaking in April, May, I would have agreed with you. I feel like we're getting to backlash territory here, whereas there's been so much talk from the analytic skies, because obviously the Raiders coach has been so anti the modern era. Boy, there's been so much negativity.

I have a feeling the Raiders are bordering on underrated. So, no, I agree with you. It's going to be a learning curve for sure. and being a Monday night football announcer is very different, even if you have your film room and your quarterback camp, than being a coach in the NFL, I just think, Colin, that's already baked into the number, and you've got to wonder when it comes to that Mike Tomlin CEO type coach

if maybe he's going to be good at that kind of coach, whereas coordinators are more on the X's and O's. Boy, that's interesting. Okay, I'll give you one more, because the three that jumped out to me, Panthers under nine, Raiders under eight, I'm going to say New England under 11.5. First of all, left tackle, a little bit of a rebuild on the O-line left side.

The receiving cords, the weakest I think Brady's had in years, especially in September without Edelman. Gronk only gives you about 10.5-11 games now. They don't have outside of Dante Hightower an impact front seven guy, and he's coming off an injury. I think under 11.5 for New England, and I think the AFC is better this year, that's another under I take. What does Vegas think? No, that's interesting. You think the AFC is better. I would make the case that seven of the nine best teams in the NFL are from the NFC.

I mean, who's the third best team? We got Patriots, we got Steelers. Chargers. Who's the third best team? Chargers. Boy, a team that I've been hearing about for years, how good they really are, but they never seem to win a game. Right. And you're right.

The odds do agree with you. The Chargers are like 15 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. So I'll say this. I don't disagree with the under 11.5 because if all you do, Colin, is go under the highest ranked team. The public usually is just going to be back in that high ranked team. So I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm also saying that in this division, they might be sitting their starters the pads the last two weeks, which would help them not necessarily win that 12th game.

But in general, I'm going to ask you one question. What decision in the offseason did the Patriots make that it wasn't their decision? decision. When the left tackle left, they said, go ahead. They could have given him that same contract. He probably would have stayed. It seems like we're all saying, oh, look at this move, look at that move. They've all been moves explicitly made by Belichick. And I don't think you get rich betting against Belichick. Wow. Okay, Brad, let's go back to you for one more. RJ Bell, pregame.com. Brad Powers is senior college football analyst. Big 10 question. I think Ohio State has the best roster. Wisconsin has the best offensive line.

and running game. I think Michigan's got the best defense, but I think Penn State's got the best quarterback, college quarterback, and the best schedule. If I said Big Ten today, where's the money going? I don't think Penn State's the best team, but so much of college football, it's hard to win. 19-year-old struggle on the road. They're different teams.

I have Penn State winning the Big Ten, and I think they may have the third best roster. What say you? Well, what say me, at least, if you think Penn State's going to win the Big Ten, I think we undercover the best bet from you because right now Penn State's five or six to one to win the Big Ten behind Ohio State, behind Michigan, and even behind Wisconsin from the Big Ten West. Late money's been on Wisconsin after that Ohio State news broke. Basically, Wisconsin almost has a free pass to the Big Ten championship game. They're about 10, 12 points better than the second best team in the West.

But I'll be honestly, looking at the schedule, Penn State does have the best schedule. They host Michigan State. They host Wisconsin. They host Ohio State. If they can figure out how to replace their offensive coordinator, Joe Moran, not Seekwon Barkley. I'm more worried about the offensive coordinator. Then you could be right, Colin. And again, you can get Penn State right now, 6 to 1 to win the Big Ten. All right, RJ. Are you ready for a couple of weeks, RJ, for my brilliance? Are you ready? I know it's been a hot summer. I'm going to keep that heat on you because we'll be doing what we do every Saturday. Well, here's the thing, Colin. Collective IQ is a very modern concept. Your picks are shockingly good. And we've been doing this, what, eight years now? A lot of people are skeptical.

They're like, Colin, picks, winners, but you've got an amazing history of winning games. Now, what we do even better is when the wise guys agree, you were almost, I mean, it's crazy. You were over 75% last year. Brad, don't listen to them. It's not crazy. It's my gigantic brain functioning. All right, guys, Brad Powers, terrific stuff again. RJ, I love this Saturday podcast, an annual thing here with the two guys.

Thanks, fellas. Thank you, Colin. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

In every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. and we're going straight to the source the athletes themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Wife is full of hurdles, so how do you keep going? On Hurtle with Emily Abadi, we're talking with the most inspiring women in sports and wellness from professional athletes, coaches, and Olympic champions

about the challenges that shape them and the mindset that keeps them moving forward. At our level, at this scale, being able to fail in front of the entire world. Like, I can do anything. I can do anything. Listen to Hurtle with Emily Abadi on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host's Kier Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,

but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to, listen to learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHart podcast, Guaranteed Human.