The Herd with Colin Cowherd - What's Wright - NFL Week 5 Predictions: Bills-Rams, 49ers-Seahawks, Eagles-Jaguars, Bears-Packers, Raiders-Patriots
Episode Date: October 10, 2026Nick Wright shares his predictions for Week 5 of the NFL season. First, Nick and Damonza run through their "Stay Away" games including Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles taking on Trevor Lawrence... and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills battling Matt Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, and Tyson Bagent leading the Chicago Bears into Lambeau against Jordan Love's Green Bay Packers. Next is Nick's Picks for Week 5 featuring Sam Darnold's Seattle Seahawks hosting Brock Purdy and the red-hot San Francisco 49ers, Kirk Cousins' 3-1 Las Vegas Raiders looking to bounce back against Drake Maye's New England Patriots, Justin Herbert's Los Angeles Chargers seeking their first win over Bo Nix's Denver Broncos, and more! Later, the show wraps with Touchdown Genie, Damonza's Teaser, and The Offer from the producers! #Volume 18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Demandzee, week four,
not treat me well. And I think I went four and one in week three. We can just throw up the week
four recap, if you would. Here is the, here, you know, glass half full, glass half empty. Glass
half full. I gave myself enough margin for error headed into week four that a one in four
week, I'm just 500. We are just, you know, we're dead. We're dead even a, you know, you
know what glass three quarters full because we're now doing this with our partners at
polymarket there is not the same sportsbook style vague associated with these picks so while
we still need to be above 50% to be profitable we don't need to be at 52.6% so that's you
know, so we're basically dead even on the year.
Glass half empty, these were awful picks.
These were picks that were just dead.
Like, it's the, they were not, it's not like, oh, man, got unlucky.
Nope, just got cracked across the board on these.
Buffalo laying six and a half against New England.
All weekend, this felt like something funny was up.
and here's why.
It did move to seven.
And then to month,
so I got the better of the number by a lot.
Then Christian Gonzalez ruled out.
Christian Barnmore ruled out.
All of the,
the whole, every single piece of information we got,
people are steaming the bills,
all over the bills.
And they never moved at seven and a half.
Which means they were like,
Like, yeah, the whole public's on Buffalo and the whole public's going to lose.
And the Patriots not only covered, they won outright.
So bad job by me.
I really thought I was going to lose Jacksonville in the most horrifying fashion imaginable.
Because Jacksonville is covering the whole game.
They're dominating the game.
And then all of a sudden, thanks to some weird two-point conversion hijinks,
the Bengals have the ball down five inside the 30 in the waning moments.
I was like, oh, my God.
If they score a touchdown, they're going for two definitively with like 20 seconds left
and that they can just win by three.
Jacksonville hung on.
Jacksonville, that was the right side of it.
I picked the Jacks, DeMonsay, plus three and a half.
They ran 32 plays.
The Bears had 34 first down.
the Jets the Jets were never at risk of covering that that was a Ben Johnson master class
an absolute Ben Johnson master class um I picked Minnesota laying 10 and a half against
Miami now I guess you know what I didn't even think about this I will say I got unlucky on
this one even because well Hockinson took a knee to cover yeah that's like
But I didn't deserve to cover.
I mean, Minnesota never scored a touchdown.
Ministers just kicking field goals.
10 and a half points.
I mean, it's really, really bad.
And Miami also had a 70-yard touchdown taken off the board.
And so, yeah, I didn't get unlucky.
And the chiefs, the chiefs did not deserve to cover the four and a half.
With that said, they're up 11 and Kirk Cousins is fumbling the ball.
with two minutes left and then somehow recovers his own fumble,
throws a touchdown, and they allow the two-point conversion.
I deserve the one and four.
I could have somehow, I could have somehow,
if Hawkinson doesn't go down and if Cousins does fall down,
somehow I go three and two,
I didn't deserve a three and two there.
One and four is fine.
We move on to this week's slate,
which has the London game,
and I think I have picked the Jags,
every single week this season.
I think they are three of my four wins.
They are in the stayaways.
Go ahead.
Philly versus Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is seven and a half point favorites.
Man.
I want to take the Jags so bad.
Philly is in shambles.
Jacksonville's a legit excellent team.
This is a de facto home game for them.
Philly has all these injuries.
They might be starting Damien Pierce are running back.
We don't know about Devante Smith.
They traded away their left guard.
Their right tackle retired.
Their coach is not good.
However, the lending, laying huge numbers in the London game against a desperate team,
it just feels wrong.
And here's the other piece of it.
Whether it was in the summer, in right before the,
season started after week one after week two after week three this line was never close to jacksonville
minus seven and a half i think in the summer look ahead line philly was the favorite so i can't lose
nine points of line value and just take the absolute worst of the number that would ever be posted
with all that said, man, oh, man, I want to, and I could see Jacksonville blowing them out,
but just trying to stay true to the principles of, I'm getting so the bad side of this number,
and it's seven plus the hook. I'm staying away. Next.
There's no way that Jalen Hurts problems gets fixed by losing his best offensive line.
No.
Are you, you know what? You didn't get to before we get to the next one.
We didn't, I did most of the Philly talking and Thursday show.
Do you think Philly's just done?
Yeah.
Well, with what I just with what I just said about Jalen Hertz,
like it doesn't get any better.
It's already been bad.
I don't think there's any way that they can keep it afloat on offense
with them losing this many offense alignment and their best offense alignment.
I think you're right.
All right, next.
Cincinnati at Miami, Miami six and a half point dogs.
So Miami has been sneaky,
frisky adjacent, okay?
I'm not saying they've been good.
But that week one,
Raiders game,
they find themselves
mid third quarter,
13 to 17.
Like they're, you know, they're there.
They're not going to win, but they're there.
They get annihilated by
the Niners, but still,
at halftime, it's 14 to 6.
Like, they're not, they're not dead.
The Chiefs game, they're down seven late fourth quarter.
And in fact, they're only down, they're only down four start of the fourth quarter.
We just talked about the Vikings game, the Vikings that they held the Vikings to zero touchdowns.
So they have been just frisky enough combined with the fact that I don't know the health staff,
of the Bengals receivers as we sit here recording.
I know they haven't been able to run the ball.
I know T. Higgins, I'm sorry,
Jamar Chase, you know, is still in concussion protocol.
I know T. Higgins was out of Wednesday's practice,
that Brian Cook was out of Wednesday's practice,
that Kyle Dugger was out of Wednesday's practice.
So all of that makes me not want to,
lay the six and a half with Cincinnati.
I obviously don't really want to pick Miami when for the first time all year.
They're getting less than a touchdown.
That seems like a mistake.
And so that's a stay away.
If you have thoughts on the game, tell me.
If not, we'll go on to the next one.
No, my name is cool.
Cleveland at Jets.
Jets are two and a half point favorites.
So Cleveland with the extra rest.
Jets off and.
going to feel rested because they were never on the field.
This is a, you seem surprised the Jets are favored.
Yeah, I honestly, I would take Cleveland here.
I would take Cleveland if I were to take a side.
I totally understand that.
Cleveland, you know, is one three in a row.
The Jets have been maybe friskier than we thought they would be,
but they're also one and three with their only win coming over the Titans.
So like how frisky are they really?
I don't believe the Browns thing is real in this regard.
I think they have a lot of talent,
and I think they've drafted well the last couple of years.
We are three weeks removed from me saying,
this is going to be the last chance in our lives to bet against Deshawn Watson,
meaning I am not yet ready to just be like,
oh, Deshaun will probably be solid.
Like I think Deshawn Watson, nine of 24 for 56 yards is still just lurking in there.
So because of that, I'm not taking, I'm not taking Cleveland on the road getting less than a field goal.
I also don't feel comfortable laying points with the Jets, so I'm staying away.
Next we got Chicago at Green Bay.
Green Bay is two and a half point dogs at home.
Back up quarterback.
I think Green Bay is bad.
I think Chicago's good.
Chicago's defense was a huge question mark.
They played well three weeks in a row.
Baygent is a highly paid backup.
Green Bay's offensive line is banged up,
dealing with injuries all over the place.
Still don't have Micah back all of that.
But am I really going to lay points
in a road divisional game with a backup quarterback?
It's with Ben Johnson, really.
It's not the backup quarterback.
Correct.
No, you're right about that.
It is.
And Ben Johnson hates Matt LaFleur, it would appear.
And so he would, let me say this.
I'm not picking this game.
If I were to, I think I would rather find an alternate spread,
like Chicago minus nine and a half or something.
Like, you understand what I mean?
That if Chicago wins, I think that they're liable to pour it on and really try to drive a stake into Green Bay.
But I also think it's possible Chicago's defense isn't quite as fixed as we think.
So week one, the Panthers move all over the field, obviously.
Week two, they're in the rainstorm against the Vikings, but the Vikings have not been able to score on anyone.
Week three, they shut down Philly.
Philly looks like it has real problems.
Week four, it is the Jets offense that they shut down.
So is it possible the Green Bay offense gets going?
I can see either side of this game.
Let me say this.
I think it is either a Green Bay outright win or a Chicago double-digit win.
Chicago minus nine and a half is trading at 25%.
So that might be worth a sprinkle for some getting three to one on it.
All right, next.
Giants at Washington, Washington's three and a half point favorites.
I just don't feel comfortable getting financially involved in a Jaden Daniels game
until I see him play in either direction.
You know what I mean?
Like I just want to see what he looks like.
I know it's his off arm and so maybe it doesn't hamper him.
I don't know, but maybe he looks great.
He looked awesome against the Cowboys until before he got hurt.
He was playing really well.
I just need to see him play, so I'm staying away from it.
Minnesota at New Orleans
New Orleans one and a half point dogs
New Orleans
A promising one in three
If such a thing exists
Like you kind of
I know this past week
They got just annihilated by
Atlanta on Monday night football
Um
Minnesota
A concerning 4 and O
if such a thing exists
They just can only kick field goals
I also
This is
You know
We have got one of these
week and it's not great analysis.
Don't really.
There's too many good noon games or
1 p.m. games. Not really that interested.
Don't really want to spend a lot of time thinking
about it watching and being invested in it.
Yeah, we're just, we're staying away.
Next.
Detroit and Arizona, Arizona's five and a half point dogs.
We are getting close.
We're not there yet, but we're getting
close to the point
of any time
Detroit is laying
more than a field goal,
we're just going the other side
because that defense is that bad.
We're not there yet
because
they have such an explosive offense.
I could see them
just scoring 40 on Arizona
and Arizona team that in week two
allowed 31 and week three allowed
36 and week four allowed 36.
So Jared Gough, Jamir Gibbs, Amonara St. Brown, Laporta could go crazy.
However, this could be the nail on the coffin.
For who?
For Detroit.
Oh, yeah.
I mean, if they, you let Bryce Young move the ball all over on you.
I just don't think Detroit's defense, I can lay a big number on the road against a quarterback that will throw it around the field.
Jacoby's not going to be conservative about this year.
So I'm staying away from it.
Next.
Baltimore and Atlanta's three and a half point favorites.
It's a night football.
So listen, this line means Lamar's not playing.
Now, Shepter earlier this week said he might play.
I don't think he is playing.
I also, so, and you guys know, I believe in Atlanta more than most.
So I lean Atlanta with no Lamar.
I also would feel like such a fool if I could have gotten Baltimore or Atlanta plus three and a half a week ago.
And now I'm laying three and a half.
That half point is like a really important one.
I also think Baltimore can win with Tyler Huntley.
We've seen a win with Tyler Huntley.
It's not like Atlanta's some juggernaut now.
Now listen, I know they're my deep sleeper and they've looked really good.
but they're not.
Atlanta has not earned the right of like,
oh,
they're playing a,
you know,
a team of the backup quarterback just right in the win.
Derek Henry could run the ball 30 times.
We'll see what the Ravens defense can do.
But I,
there's enough uncertainty about who's even playing quarterback.
I'm not laying the three and a half with Atlanta.
I don't want to grab the points with Baltimore because I think they've been a little
disappointing so far this year.
So I'm staying away from it.
How do you feel?
Let's assume Lamar's out,
De Manzay.
do you feel about the game?
I'm not even trying to be biased, but I would take Baltimore.
No.
I'm taking Baltimore plus the point.
I'm not taking Atlanta, but it depends on what Atlanta does to Baltimore there, but if they
do, if they did destroy it, it's not you do got to take Atlanta, a different type of light.
It's a serious team.
Oh, right.
You didn't have to look at them for absolutely because, listen, the Ravens like Huntley.
He's been there back up there for years.
He started a playoff game for them.
Like, they're not drawing dead with Tyler Huntley at all.
My question is, can Bejohn do something similar that he did to New Orleans to you guys?
That would be my question.
And then the game of the week on Monday night football.
Buffalo at Rams.
Rams are three and a half point favorites.
I like the Rams by two and a half.
I don't like them by three and a half.
But I'm also, if I think, if I'm handicapping this personally as a three point Rams win,
I think there's better spots than me taking Buffalo plus the three and a half.
Like, technically, I guess I'm on Buffalo plus three and a half,
but trying to thread that needle in this spot,
it's not where I'm going to make a financial investment.
I do think Stafford should look great against this Ram,
against this Buffalo defense,
but I also imagine Josh Allen after back-to-back subpar games bounces back.
I, my lean here, here's just like I said, I would do a little sprinkle on Chicago minus nine and a half.
I would do a little sprinkle on the total in this game.
This, the total, it's the biggest total of the weekend will tide with the Lions game.
It's a huge number.
It's 54 and a half, which is a ridiculously high number.
I still think it's an over.
I mean, but 54 and a half is crazy because that means 31, 21 is an under, 28, 24 is an under.
Like, that's a crazy high number.
I still think it's an over.
I think this is, you know, 35, 31, 31, 38 type of game.
I get a pick six in there somewhere too.
Yeah, maybe.
Oh, yeah, Stafford with the all-time record.
All right.
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Each week I bring on incredible guests like Conan O'Brien, Iowa Debrie,
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Have you guys heard of faux journaling?
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Time now for Nick's Picks brought to you by Polymarket.
Demons A go right ahead.
We are coming in hot with Houston minus seven and a half at Tennessee.
You think I'm crazy on this?
I think you're insane.
I knew it.
It's in the wrong section.
It's supposed to be in the section above.
The stayaways.
This one.
So here's my rationale here.
Houston's season on the line.
C.J. Stroud has played well.
C.J. Stroud has played clean football.
The Texans defense has been the disappointing factor.
Texans defense has faced Josh Allen,
Joe Burrow,
Dak Prescott.
The one time they didn't face
one of those guys, Daniel Jones,
they held under 20.
Hell, Joe Burrow, they held to
just 20. Now you
get Cam Ward
and the hapless Texas or Titans
offense.
You,
D'emiko,
taking over defensive
play calling duties. That's
interesting.
I think
this is,
is a Texans blowout spot.
It doesn't mean they're fine.
It doesn't mean they're back.
The very next week,
they have to go to London to face the Jags
who will have been there, right?
Jacks just live in London?
They play back to that games.
Yeah, they play back to back games in London.
But here is what the Texans have going for them, to Mose.
If you look, you don't want to.
write them off. They get the Titans this week. Then the Jags. Let's say they lose to the Jags.
I have one in five. Next three, Giants, Chargers, Browns is a very real possibility they can get,
you know what? Giants Chargers Browns cults at home on a Thursday. Like they couldn't get to four
and five going into that home Thursday night game and feel like, all right, we are, we're going
have to fight, fight, fight, but we're alive. I'm not ready to write off the Texans entirely.
They, you know, the Titans have lost 10 straight divisional games.
Now, all of the money and all of the picks is on the Texans, which means I'm on the square
side of this. But the square's got to win sometimes. I think Houston 27,
Tennessee seven, I will take Houston minus the seven and a half.
Next.
Vegas plus three and a half at New England?
Yeah, I, Vegas has been better than the past this year.
I think that the Raiders, oddly, are more confident following that Chiefs loss than they were going into that Chiefs game.
I think that Clint Kubiak will maybe learn some lessons from that game on either being consistently conservative or consistently aggressive, but the mixing and matching he did in that game was not great.
The Patriots are still dealing with some of those injury concerns we talked about before.
I didn't think Drake May all of a sudden turned some sharp corner in the game against the bills.
he looked better, but I didn't like, oh, Drake May's back.
Obviously, New England can win, but the Patriots, like,
I don't think they deserve to be laying three and a half against what I think is,
at the very least, a decent team, if not a good team.
This feels like it should be New England minus one and a half.
It's New England minus three and a half, so I will take the Raiders getting the three and a half.
And I think they might win outright, but I'll take them getting three and a half.
Next.
I like the Raiders.
Indie plus two and a half at Pittsburgh?
Yeah, I think the cults might be frisky adjacent.
And I think the Steelers, listen, Rogers had a throwback game against the Bengals and looked amazing.
Aside from that, that Steelers offense has.
been bad throughout the year.
They scored 13 against Cooper Rush and the Falcons and the only reason I'm mentioning
Cooper Rush and that is their big play was a pick six against him.
They scored three against New England that, you know, they, the, the Browns had them
yelling at each other on the sideline.
The, and so Stuyken, uh, is I think 10 and six against the spread as a road underdog.
He's eight.
I don't know if I care so much about this.
He's 8 and 1 against the spread in October.
Rogers has not actually been very good with the extended rest over the last few years.
And so what people think works against the cults is they're coming back from London with no buy.
But teams in that exact spot are actually 16 and 9 where they come straight back from an international game with no buy.
and so I am
I am not as concerned about that
for the record this year.
Indies a younger team than Pittsburgh as well.
I'm sorry, it's for the travel.
No, you're, oh, no, that part's fine,
but the, like the Ravens and Cowboys
both came back from Rio, no buy after.
That's a longer flight than London,
and they won the following week.
So that part doesn't worry me.
I think Indy's better than Pittsburgh.
I know they're on the road, but I'm getting points.
I'll take Indy plus two and a half.
Next.
Seattle minus two and a half or San Francisco?
Yeah, I mean, I think Seattle's better.
And Seattle's at home.
This is priced as if they're equivalent teams.
I think Seattle's obviously the healthier team.
Seattle's defense is going to be, I think, a bit of a wake-up call to San Francisco.
Seattle's defense played the Niners in week 18 last year with the number one seat on the line.
the Niners scored three points.
They then played them two weeks later in the playoffs.
The Niners scored six points.
I think Seattle's defense presents huge problems for Brock Purdy and the Niners' offense,
which is not rife with weapons.
And Christian McCaffrey has not looked amazing yet this year.
I think Seattle wins this game by a touchdown.
So I will take Seattle minus the two and a half.
And then a pick that I'm sure you think is insane.
really crazy, almost like, kind of blasphemous.
But Chargers plus three and a half versus Denver,
like you shouldn't even be allowed to pick on them.
So here's the deal.
The Chargers' entire offensive line is heard again.
The Chargers are one of the laughing stocks of the league.
You know, Sean Payton has taken back over play calling.
Denver needs it.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have let go of the rope, all of it.
I think the Chargers might get their first one of the year, buddy.
And I certainly don't think a Denver team that averages three points a half in the first half this year should be laying more than a field goal on the road.
Now, it won't be a real road game.
There will be more Broncos fans.
I understand that.
um and i so i you know that piece of it is the only reason the road thing matters is travel
but this is really just a zag when america's zinging take i i think i might be the only
the only person who does a pick show in the country that's like this is the week i'm going with
the Chargers.
And I also don't think the football gods are going to smile upon Sean Payton humiliating Davis Webb this week.
And so I don't need the Chargers to win.
I just need them to cover.
Yeah, I feel like that.
And now, and the Chargers are almost free of pressure because their seasons just cooked anyway.
So the Chargers getting three and a half at home, I knew you'd be shocked by that.
So my five picks this week, Houston laying seven and a half at the Titans, the Raiders, getting three and a half at the Patriots, the Colts getting two and a half at Pittsburgh, Seattle, laying two and a half at home against the Niners, and the Los Angeles Chargers, getting three and a half against Denver.
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All right, DeMonze, let's do touchdown genie and then your teaser.
So two anytime touchdown is at 48% yes, 54% no.
And Bowers anytime touchdown score is 41% yes, 74% no.
All right.
I am just going to go.
The splits are.
on the Bowers anytime touchdown this is again a little prediction market inside stuff but if you
guys are going to you know roll with us on polymarket you should know it the in theory you want the
yes no to add up to as close to a hundred as possible every percent above a hundred is the
equivalent of you know of vig the market maker's charging right so 4854 that's 102 percent so
that's almost like truly true odds like fair odds right 41 and 74 that's 115 so it's just too
like there's you know the counterparty of that is getting the better end of it so i do they i do like
bowers but not at those numbers tooting i love at that given the eagles run defense
problems. The fact that I think they're going to be running the ball in Tottenham or at the Tottenham
Hot Spurs Stadium. So Tutton, yes, 48%. Last week I did any defensive touchdown in Minnesota, Miami.
That one did not come in. So I will go with Tutin. Let's talk about things that did come in to Monzee.
Last week, your teaser that I gave a C to, to exactly what you needed to break out of the funk.
Go. Yep. We had to go another direction. We had Indy plus four and a half. That
covered beautifully. Baltimore was the closest one at minus two and a half still covered. And then Carolina
plus 11 and a half. They won. This week, we have a three-team eight-point teaser again.
We're going to be teasing Philly up to 15 and a half and Cincinnati up to a one and a half.
And then I got Buffalo at 11.5 against the ramps. Okay. So first, I do want to revisit last week because last
week it's not only that you covered them all it was with super ease in fact you would have that
would have won just as a parley yeah like carolina like you didn't even need the eight points on
any of them um oh wait hold on no you did in baltimore pardon me so it was closer yeah baltimore
but baltimore's fate close baltimore's up 14 and then the titans get a tightens get a
late touchdown two point conversion.
But you're right.
So you needed it.
Indy obviously won outright in coverage.
So that was a great one.
Your one this week.
Philly getting 15 and a half.
Big number.
Don't hate it.
Cincinnati threw the zero but against Miami.
Don't hate it.
Buffalo getting them all the way to 11.
And a half.
It's very hard to see the bills getting blown out.
They don't really ever get blown out.
That's not their thing.
But you did go through a zero also.
So maybe this is good luck.
I'm giving you a C again.
All right.
But that's fine.
You got to see last time and you won.
So it's perfect.
All right.
What's the offer this week?
Last week, the Derek Henry two plus touchdowns did not hit the Jags to claim the number one seat in the AFC is trading at 14%.
Jacksonville has the easiest remaining schedule in the league.
But you can still root for Casey, obviously, to make the playoffs.
Do you accept?
I do not accept.
Of course.
I'm not.
No, I'm not.
I'm not putting, I don't emotionally hedge guys.
I'm not betting on something that or picking something.
I don't want to happen like that.
I understand.
Now, again, do I think, let me put it like this.
Is that a smart money?
Do they have a one in seven chance, which is what this would be of winning, of getting the number one seat?
Of course they do.
Am I going to take it?
No, should you? Maybe, but I am not.
All right, everyone have a wonderful weekend.
Thank you so much to Boost Mobile and to Polymarket.
Great job to Monzae.
Great job, Blue Duck, great job volume.
I will talk to you guys.
If you're watching this on a Friday, today on the TV show, and if not, I will see you guys Monday.
What's right?
I'm Lacey Mosley, author, actor, stand-up comedian, creator, and host of Scam Goddess podcast.
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Join us for a panel of Eurovision participants.
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I've been hearing for decades that the markets can solve climate change.
Today, we have more incentives for market solutions than ever and emissions are rising.
On this season of drilled, Carbon Cowboys, the story of three market solutions colliding
in one multinational boondoggle.
You got to give Bruce of the guy's credit.
They're Republican.
They don't give a shit about it.
Listen on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Doorbell prankster that tormented German resident apartments turns out to be a slug.
Ding-dog!
Hi, I'm Kurt Brown-Oller.
And I'm Scotty Landis.
They say no news is good news.
But weird news?
That's bananas.
Every Tuesday on our podcast bananas, we find the strangest true stories from around the world
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Man rescued by firefighters after getting stuck in a phone booth trying to order a kebab.
Man, you did it.
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China's first corgi police dogs in trouble again.
Uh-oh, what did he do this time?
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