The Herd with Colin Cowherd - What's Wright - Nick Wright PREDICTS AFC: Mahomes & Chiefs WILL BE BACK, Bills & Ravens OVER win totals | NFL

Episode Date: March 20, 2026

All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet.   Nick Wright predicts the over/under win totals for every team in the AFC. Nick breaks down why he's in on Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson's Baltimore Ravens to go over their win totals as well as why his Kansas City Chiefs will return to form as Patrick Mahomes is set to return from an ACL injury. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

I'm Joey Dardano, and on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the IHard.

Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Conky, his best friend and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 Podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA.

Listen to the 1021 podcast on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, welcome in episode 435. This episode of What's Right When Think Ride is presented to you by Boost Mobile as always. And we are back three episodes a week. Some of these episodes are going to be mailbag episodes. Some of these episodes are going to be like today's gambling episode. Thanks to our friends at Hard Rock Bet, where all of our lines come from. it's never basically too early de monse

to talk NFL and the overunders came out on a hard rock bet so again the draft hasn't happened injuries haven't happened so this is we're not held any of these it's just where we're leaning at the moment and I real quick before we get to it I do want to make a point that applies

to the NFL but I was reminded of it by the huge success of the world baseball Classic and what seems to be like a somewhat flagging interest ratings-wise in some of these NBA games. I really do feel like we are moving even further towards event-based entertainment. Like if something feels like an event and feels big, it can still grab people. attention and everything else kind of gets lost to the noise, which is why I'm really interested if come these NBA playoffs, with the new TV partners and streaming deals, everything, if they can make these games feel like events, NBC's trying to do that with some of the broadcasts because

the reason football is not only still king, but has a bigger lead on the other sports than ever before, is they can make regular season games feel like an event. That World Baseball, you had people watching the World Baseball Classic that won't watch another baseball game until October. That were locked in. That World Baseball Classic did NBA Finals ratings. NBA Finals ratings because it was a big event. And that's why,

like the Netflix boxing stuff, even if it's farcical, who's fighting, works. Because people are like, oh, it's something to plan my evening around. And football just has that, which is why it can be the middle of March and people are into football conversations. Reminder to everybody, like, rate, subscribe to view to the pod. All right, DeManzay, explain to the audience how we're doing this and what we're doing. So today we're going to go through Wintold. for the whole AFC, all the AFC teams, and we want you to weigh in and tell us whether that's too high, too low, or just right. Oh, a Goldie Lox.

I get it. It's okay. I'm Goldie Lox there, and there is the three, the Goldilocks and the three bears. You know, this porridge is too hot. This porch is too cold. I like it. All right. So go ahead, pal.

Sorry. So, yeah. So let's get into these lines. courtesy of our friends at Hard Rock Bet. All right. Where are we starting? First, we've got the AFC East. The Buffalo Bills are set at 10 and a half at minus 140 and plus 115. Right. So the first minus 140 to the over.

So they're slightly favored to the over. So this is what's important to remember. For every team we talk about in the AFC East, they will play the following two divisions. The AFC West and the NFC North, which means the AFC East got the nut low divisional draw. They got, in my opinion, the hardest division to play in the AFC and probably the hardest or the second hardest division to play in the NFC.

So Buffalo has all of their own division, plus the AFC West and NFC North, plus these strength of schedule games, they get the second place teams from the AFC North. That's Baltimore. That really sucks. It's like we have the second place team from the north, but it's Baltimore. They get the second place team from the south. That's Houston. That's pretty unfortunate. it and the second place team de Monzae from the NFC West, which is the Rams.

So, I mean, so that is a brutal. They drew tough divisions. They get lucky with the division they're in, at least. Correct. No, correct. But also, those three divisions that they get the second place team for, those second place teams are, I think a lot of people think, the best teams in those divisions. That Baltimore is better than Pittsburgh, that Houston is better than Jacksonville,

and that the Rams are better than the Seahawks. So despite all of that, for Buffalo, I will take the over. Because what you said was the most important. six games in their own division and it just feels like that's five and one. Two and oh against Miami, two and oh against the Jets, split with New England.

So five, if they go five and one there, can they go six and five in their remaining games, which their remaining games are home against Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City, the Chargers in Baltimore. That is hard.

Those are all, yeah, loseable games. And on the road against Denver, Green Bay, Vegas, Minnesota, Houston, and the Rams. Again, it's a brutal schedule outside of the division. But they win 11 games every year with Josh Allen. So I, to me, this is a touch too low. All right. Next one. Miami Dolphins at 4.5 with plus 100 on the over and minus 1.

20 on the under. So again, same divisions, AFC West, NFC, NFC North. Their strength of schedule games are the Bengals, the Colts, and the Niners. You know, not a murderers row, but not a cakewalk.

Their total is at four and a half. And I'm here to tell you that's too high. They got a chance. They are going. They are going to be the worst team in the league by a lot. I would be on two-win watch for the Miami Dolphins. That strikes me as too high.

We don't need to spend more time on them. It's too high. Next. Patriots 9.5 minus 125 on the under, or plus minus 125 on the over, plus 105 on the under. A touch too high. I think the Patriots come way back down to Earth. from the easiest schedule in the NFL this century to, again, the AFC West, NFC, North, Plus, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Seattle. I think they're a nine-win team.

So you could say that means it's just right. I think it's more likely they win eight than they win 11. So I think that's just too high. next one. Jets at 5.5. You got minus 105 on the over, minus 115 on the under. I'm going to say just right. But if I had to pick a side, I would go over. Because here are, they have two games against the dolphins.

A game against the Raiders. The Browns. The Titans. The Cardinals. That's six games against the worst teams in football. Now, they are also one of the worst teams in football. Right. I understand that.

But you have that if they can somehow just win. Wait, hold on. Yeah, that's right. If they can just steal, if they can go two and ten, or two and nine against good teams and then four and two against the worst teams like i i could see them getting to the over and gino like does gino have anything left but it's it's probably just right but i would go i if i had to i would go over and i love buffalo at minus one 45 to win the division i love you um we'll get to the other division

in a moment, but a reminder today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet, Florida's sports book. I really hope that you guys joined the volumes bracket contest. The winner of it is going to get a two-night stay at the Guitar Hotel, Seminole Hard Rock Hotel in Florida, and they're going to get $1,000 in bonus bets to use on the Hard Rock bet app again I really hope you guys did join our bracket contest the website was bracket the volume.com that's where you can check your standings and see how you're doing if you're in the contest but if you're not in the contest don't worry all tournament long hard rock bet is rolling out

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Call 1-800 gambler, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend.

But this one's, extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers

was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas. And offered up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.

That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,

give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice. on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. All right, DeManzay, let's go to the AFC North. AFC North, we got by Ravens at 10.5 minus 145 on the over and plus 125 on the under. So they are in a very different position than the AFC East in that the divisions they get,

everyone in their division obviously plays their own division plus the two souths the a fc south and the nfc south now the a fc south was better than people expected last year the nfc south is the worst division in football every year and doesn't seem to be stopping anytime soon they also baltimore get the second place schedule, which means their strength of schedule games, in addition to playing those divisional teams, are the Chargers, the Bills, and the Cowboys. Tough, not brutal,

but tough. I think this is just right. If I had to, if I had to pick a side, I would go over. Bolstered by the fact that I actually think our schedule. That's what I was going to say. I think their division is soft all of a sudden.

I think Pittsburgh, no Tomlin and going to have 42-year-old Rogers. Cleveland in perpetual hell. And you guys know I don't. Right. Really believe in Cincinnati. Plus you get the NFC South and the cults and the Titans from the AFC South. Like, I agree with you. So I, I.

My concern is, I do think they lost more than they brought in this offseason. I don't love the lack of weapons for Lamar, but I assume Lamar is getting a new deal, and Lamar, when he's not, you know. And he's taking boxing lessons. I look at you. That's not nothing. That's really good cardio right there. We're talking about, oh, yeah, no, we weren't talking about.

No, but that, so hold on. I'm glad you said that. would you do that yeah maybe really do yeah I would do you have interest in doing that yeah boxing yeah like yeah not actual fighting but like boxing lessons like yeah but 100% it's it's great guardian I think maybe you Daniel's is that Daniel saying he does it Daniel I think does like my tie or something like that damn correct me if I'm wrong the yeah he does my tie is my tie Um, well, Daniel's got a pretty smart mouth and he's not the biggest guy.

I think he shouldn't know how to fight. Like, it's, like, uh, I mean, I think that's probably pretty smart. Like, uh, here, listen, I might do it too. All right. I might do it too. I'd be down. Like, maybe that could be a cool thing for us to do. I know we're bi-coastal, but.

Yeah, I was about to say, like, just track it or something. Yeah. Yeah. I like the idea of it. Um. I'd be totally now. So, yeah, let's put a pin in that, but that could be fun. And like, I always...

Oh, sorry. No, go ahead. You always what? I was going to say like Baltimore, like 14 wins, basically. 14. I mean, maybe we've seen Lamar do it. What I was going to say is Lamar historically, fresh off a contract dominates. Yeah.

Like, for real. Like the last time he got the contract, you just peeled an MVP and then almost won another one. All right, let's go to the Bengals. Bengals at nine and a half, the over is minus 115, and the under is minus 105. So their strength of schedule games, again, they have their division, AFC South, NFC, South, plus Kansas City, that's a brutal third place game. But then Miami and Washington, that's nice. Yeah. I think this is just right.

I just think the Bengals are still, they are just the same team to me. They are every year. They're going to have an awesome offense, despite a shaky offensive line and a terrible defense. And I just, I don't trust the organization. I don't think they made like these massive game-changing moves. And so I, you know, that to me, they could win nine, they could win 10. I think it's on the board. They win eight.

It's on the board. They win 11. feed into their situation. Well, right. I mean, he, now he missed a lot of last year, but they, I just don't, I don't trust that organization to, you know, win 12 games. And so I think that's just right. All right, next. We got the Browns at six and a half, the overs plus 125, the under's minus 150.

Well, this is so embarrassing. Who's there? I should not say this out loud. Yeah, who's their head coach? I forgot. It's Monken. Oh, Todd Monken.

That's right, from Baltimore. Thank you. I was like, it just for a sudden, it lost me. Okay, so their strength of schedule games, Raiders, Jets, Giants. That's pretty sick. I got to say.

So they play Raiders, Jets, Giants, Titans, the whole NFC South. But I think they're starting quarterback's going to be Shador. It was just about saying, like, how many NFC South games are they even going to win? Yeah, I'm going to call this just right. I don't have the courage to pick a Browns over. But my God, getting the NFC South plus the Titans plus Raiders, Jets, Giants, that's pretty sick.

and they had a good rookie class last year defensively. They have the extra first round pick. They could be frisky. I'm going to give them potentially frisky. I'm going to call it just right, but I'm going to give them potentially frisky. All right, next. Next got the Steelers at eight and a half. They're plus 125 on the over and minus 150 on the under.

Their strike the schedule games are Denver, New England, Philly. I am going under. I think they will miss Tomlin. I think the fact that Aaron Rogers is making them do this utter farce of, I haven't decided if I'm coming back yet. Like, like, they can start Will Howard? Like, they didn't sign, they didn't sign Tua. They didn't sign Kailor.

They didn't sign Malik Willis. They, the Steelers should grow a spine and just sign Kurt Cousins. They're like, we want the different old quarterback coming off in Achilles. No, and not Rogers. Be like, sorry, Aaron. Jobs full. But to me, this is too high. I would go under on Pittsburgh.

And again, I'm going to be very, I guess, fishy here or where Baltimore minus 140 for the division. I just like it. I just like it. All right, let's go to the AFC South. AFC South. We got the Houston Texans at nine and a half minus 120 on the over plus 100 on the under. So their divisional matchups are the AFC North, which I told you, don't think is that strong and the NFC east which is like median average strength of division

uh it's not i think the best divisions are the two west plus the AFC or the NFC north so the two best divisions are a in aFC west NFC west NFC north i think the worst divisions are the AFC East and the two Souths. And then the median divisions, if you are, the AFC North and the

NFC East, which are the two divisions that they draw. Houston's strength of schedule games are bills, Chargers, Packers. Not easy. I'm also worried about C.J. Stroud. Yeah.

So I'm going to say this is two. high. This to me would be an over, an under, pardon me. Is their defense going to be as good as they were last year? It's just so hard for a defense to be that dominant year over year. Like, they could be an awesome defense and not quite as good. So I'm going to say that's too high. Next. Oh, we got the Colts. They're at, they're at eight and a half, plus 105 on the over and minus 125 on the under. Their strength of schedule games are Dolphins, Chiefs, Vikings. I didn't believe in the cults last year. I don't believe in them this year.

Nobody seems to care that Daniel Jones is towards Achilles during the season. They're like, oh, yeah, he's just going to be the week one starter, maybe. And so to me, that's too high. That's too high for them. Next. We got the Jags, 9.5, plus 105 on the over and then minus 125 on the under. Their strength of schedule games are Pat, Broncos, Bears. not easy.

They won the division last year, but I believe in the Jags. Year two of Liam Cohen, get Travis Hunter back, Trevor, feeling the best he's felt. I think they're a double-digit-win team. I think the best team in that division.

And so that's too low. Next. Titans at six and a half, minus 125 on the over, plus 105 on the under. Their strength of schedule games are Jets, Raiders, That's so crazy.

That the Lions were a last place team. Isn't that wild? Feels just right. That there are a six or seven win team. Trust Bobby Sala to get the defense going, see what Cam Ward can do in year two. That feels just right. Houston is the favorite to win the division.

I like Jacksonville. I like Jacksonville a lot at plus 175. All right. Before we get to my division, reminder, you ever notice everything keeps going up, rents going up, streaming services going up, your favorite burrito spots, charge an extra for salsa? It's ridiculous. Not with Boost Mobile, though. You and your phone bill don't have to play the Will This Go Up Soon game? Why? Because Boost Mobile is unlimited. Talk, Tex and Data Plan at a price that'll never go up. In fact, it's the same price you'll pay for life. So switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up only at Boost Mobile. After 30 gigs, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers, We'll pay $20 per month as long as they remain active on the boost unlimited plan. All right. Let's get to it, DeMonsei. The AFC West, the Denver Broncos at nine and a half, minus 115 on the over and then minus 105 on the under.

So everyone in this division gets the AFC East, which again, I don't think is that brutal. And the NFC West, which is quite brutal. the Broncos first place strength of schedule games, not bad. Jacksonville, which is tough, Carolina and Pittsburgh. I mean, for the fact that your first place gets you Carolina and Pittsburgh, pretty sweet.

If you're, if you're Denver. I think this is a, touch low. Oh, okay, there we go. I was about saying you probably want to get on it early this year. No. 100%. Yeah, definitely low.

Listen, I, they brought everyone back. I like the Waddle trade. The, you know, I, I can't change what matters for me because it's a player that I haven't believed in. I care a lot about how you look in the playoffs. and Bo Nix

again, it was one playoff game, but he was awesome in that game. Absolutely awesome in that Bill's game and then he broke his ankle. I don't love him and Sean Pate in Little Cold War. And I don't I don't love that,

but the defense should be good. The offense should be fine. They won 14 last year, so they could go down by four wins and hit the over. So I think they're an over. Yeah. I really do. Next.

Chiefs at 10 and a half plus 100 on the over, minus 120 on the under. All right. I must say I adore, adore the Chief Strength of Schedule games. Oh, okay. The Colts, Bengals, Falcons My goodness gracious Finally you don't win the division and we end up with that

I'll take it NFC West obviously is tough But so the Chiefs next year Have two games against the Raiders They get the Colts, they get the Falcons They get the Jets They get the dolphins They get the Cardinals

That's seven of their games So if they go six and one against the bad teams to hit the over, can they go five and five against the Chargers, the Pats, the Niners, Bills, Bills, Rams, Bengals, Bills, Rams, Bengals. Now, Bill's Ram Seahawks on the road, that's three very tough road games, no doubt about it. But the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. And winning 11 games was the absolute floor every single year prior to last year. That's too low. They're still the best team in that division.

That's an over for me. And you can get plus 100 on the over. Oh, yeah, you can get a little, right. You get a little bit of juice on. or at least dead even money on the over. All right, let's go to the Raiders. Got the Raiders at 5.5, minus 110 on the over, minus 110 on the under.

Their strength of schedule games are Titans, Brown Saints. They spent a ton of money this offseason and Max Crosby's back, but they're going to be starting a rookie quarterback. So there's, you know, kind of a push and a pull there. This feels just right. but I would lean over. Lean over, but probably would just stay away from it. All right, last one.

We got the charges at 10 and a half. They're plus 115 on the over, minus 140 on the under. For a non-divisional winner, their strength of schedule games are brutal. They play the fate. They play a second place schedule, and every team, every one of their strength of schedule games, is the favorite to win the division. Houston, Baltimore, Tampa.

Yep. Right? Now, I obviously said I'm, you know, I'm not a huge believer in Houston, but still, they are the favorite. This is a red hot under for me. This is way too, this is too high. I don't, I, I do not think the Chargers are going to be the team that America thinks they're going to be next year.

And I do worry that this playoff game is going to, linger for Herbert. I do worry about that. And I still don't know what receivers he's going to have to throw to. And so I like that the chiefs are the favorites to win the division, barely at plus 165. I like that. And so my four division, I have three favorites, Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and the Jags. It's a little chalky, but again, this time of year, supposed to be a little chalky. We'll see how the draft goes. See all of that.

All right. It's fun to be back to three shows a week. Next week, we'll either do a mailbag next week and the NFC totals the week after or vice versa. Hope everybody's enjoying the tournament. Hope your brackets aren't busted. A huge thank you to boost and to Hard Rock Bet. As always, huge thank you to volume and a blue duck. Talk to you guys next week.

What's right? Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.

We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Podcasts. Hey, it's Edwin Castro, also known as Castro 1021. And I'm Kunky, his best friend,

and business manager. And we've got a new show called The 1021 podcast. I'm taking you behind the scenes on how I became one of Twitch's most popular streamers. We also love sports. And with the World Cup right around the corner, we'll be breaking down the biggest storylines ahead of the big tournament here in the USA. Listen to the 1021 podcast on the IHeart Radio. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Gerdano! And on my new podcast, Hope From a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives,

helping people in need with thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to me. This is Help from a Hypocrite,

the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite Wednesdays on the Iheart radio app. Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.