The Knowledge Project with Shane Parrish - Truth Over Feelings: Inside Opendoor’s Massive Turnaround

Episode Date: July 21, 2026

No company decides to fail. It drifts there one comfortable lie at a time. Kaz Nejatian took over Opendoor when it was just months away from bankruptcy and set out to rebuild it from the ground up. W...hat happened next shocked everyone. Most turnaround stories are told years later, by the winner, after the ending is already known. That’s why they always sound clean and polished. This one doesn’t have an ending yet, and it’s anything but clean and polished. Kaz takes us inside while it’s still happening. We discuss why great companies drift away from reality, why truth has to matter more than feelings, and how competent people who don’t believe in the mission quietly destroy an organization. He shares the principles behind rebuilding culture, eliminating bureaucracy, making faster decisions, using AI to flatten management, and creating teams that move with speed and ownership. One of the key things I learned in this conversation is that the comfortable lies that sink a company are the same ones that sink a career. ------ Chapters: (0:00) How Opendoor Came Back from the Dead (1:32) How Mismanagement Causes Atrophy (4:28) The Blueprint that Changed Opendoor (5:33) Rewriting the Book on Company Turnarounds (5:57) The People You Hire Is the Company You Build (6:31) Be a Nuclear Bomb of Truth (7:52) How to Change a Losing Company Culture (8:07) Commit to Truth Over Feelings (8:33) The Most Dangerous Kind of Employee (9:13) Key Principles to Turning Around a Company (11:59) Meetings Are a Bug in the System (12:30) Why It's Rude to Not Disagree (13:05) Say the Thing Culture (15:04) How AI Is Supercharging Opendoor (18:16) Most Powerful Mental Models (22:50) Why Remote Workplaces Don't Succeed (24:56) How Opendoor Killed Distractions (26:09) The Key to Being a Market Maker (35:20) How Companies Fall Off Course Over Time (37:24) The Power of Speaking Simply (43:27) Turnaround Lessons for Life (51:10) Excellence Is Capacity to Take Pain ------ Newsletter: The Brain Food newsletter delivers actionable insights and thoughtful ideas every Sunday. It takes 5 minutes to read, and it’s completely free. Learn more and sign up at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠fs.blog/newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ------ Follow Shane Parrish: X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/shaneparrish⁠ Insta: ⁠https://www.instagram.com/farnamstreet/⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/shane-parrish-050a2183/⁠ ------ Follow Kaz Nejatian: X: https://x.com/nejatian ------ Thank you to the sponsors for this episode: +Applovin: Launch your first AppLovin campaign and grow your business: https://applovin.com/shane +Matic: the robot vacuum that does it all—grab yourself a year of free bags here. ⁠http://maticrobots.com/shaneparrish⁠ +HeyGen is a message-first AI video platform that helps people and AI agents turn ideas into professional video in minutes. Try for free at https://www.heygen.com/ +LMNT: My go-to zero sugar electrolytes — get a free LMNT Sample Pack here: https://DrinkLMNT.com/TKP ------ Note: ‍Shane and guests may hold positions in assets discussed in this episode. This podcast is not investment advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this conversation should be considered investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own due diligence or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You need to figure out which defaults are killing the company and change them violently. There must not be change management because you want the change to feel jarring. You took over a company that was months away from bankruptcy. Take me inside the company. What did you do on day one? I left home to fly San Francisco where Open Door had one office. And on the way out the door, I told my way, hey sweetheart, I'll be back on Thursday. And she said, do not come back until you have a plan to break the company even.
Starting point is 00:00:41 And I'm like, ha-ha, very funny. This is hilarious. And my wife said, no, no, I'm not kidding. Do not come back. She went Amazon and ordered a mattress to the office for me. Like, I knew I was going to sleep in the office for multiple days in a row because my plan was trying to figure out what had gone wrong. Because basically what happens is all companies fail in the office.
Starting point is 00:01:00 similar ways. No companies succeed in this at all success is unique, but all failures rhyme. Good people leave. People lose control of innovation. GNA goes up and over time you end up finding fights with your customers and partners. So that had happened at Open Door. I asked for a full list of all employees, every contract, every payment the company had made for the last 12 months, and they're like all the counts. Like I'm just kick-call. Give me, like, the state. And one of the things I realized is that it is actually surprising how lack of active management allows companies to ask for fee. What do you mean by that? If you're trying to avoid looking bad, you do a certain number, certain things, right? So Open Door for a very long time was doing everything it could in order to
Starting point is 00:01:58 not be noticed in order to not stand out, which meant a company who basically had become a company run by professional consultants. Let me give you two specific examples. So I got, um, that I was going to join the company and then, uh, chair at a board, send me a Google doc. That was going to be my announcement, but this guy is going to become the CEO of the company. And I like read the doc and it sounded like it was written by someone trying very hard to avoid saying anything that might offend anyone. So I took over and made edits and then someone went in and undid my edits
Starting point is 00:02:35 and changed the dock again such that would be not offensive. So I put in big, bold letters on top of the dock. Whoever wrote this doc doesn't work at Open Door anymore. And I didn't realize that both the consulting firms that the company had hired to do PR for it were in the dock. What happened as a happy accident is is both the consulting firms very loudly
Starting point is 00:02:59 resigned the account. Like we would like to have nothing to do with the company which did two good things. One, I didn't have to pay 30 days of notice. And two, I'd have one less expense on my income statement. So I got every expense the company had paid for the last 12 months. And usually for tech companies, like
Starting point is 00:03:17 your largest expense to an external vendor ends up being like your cloud provider. But for Open Door, number one was millions of dollars written to a very large consulting firm. This company had come in and had told Open Door to basically offshore every job
Starting point is 00:03:35 to massively overload the company with GNA and basically cut engineering. Which is literally what you do if you have zero desire to create Alpha. And that basically happened to Open Door. And by the way, I think that actually happens to a lot of companies,
Starting point is 00:03:53 where the founders are no longer there. There is no large shareholder that cares a lot about the company. So over time, many of these companies essentially become hosts for professional leeches whose job it is to suck the company dry while making management look good. So I want to go back to day one, too. We started down this track of, you got all the expense reports. I want you to walk me through into giving me the blueprint
Starting point is 00:04:19 of like coming in here. Yeah. Because you find a culture that exists without you. Yeah. How do you tell what to keep, what to get rid of? The open door had gone fully remote. So at 9 a.m. not Monday I told the entire company, hey, open door is going to be back in the office next Monday.
Starting point is 00:04:37 If you don't plan to be in these offices, we appreciate your help, but you're no longer with us. Then the second thing that happened was that open door had become a place where you succeeded by creating process, not outcomes. So a bunch of people chose not to be part of the company because we became so outcome-oriented, because we demanded ownership. But the third thing that was impressive is,
Starting point is 00:05:00 I'm just actually the best good surprise of Open Door. I would, every once in a while I find someone who I thought was exceptional. And I would honestly ask them in that first couple weeks, why are you still here? And if the series of these people that had kept the company alive understableness, shoulders. And we've now rebuilt the company around these ICs.
Starting point is 00:05:21 ICs are individual contributors, yeah, who actually do the actual work. So it was on life support. Yeah, honestly, the Open Door would have died had it not been for maybe a dozen people. Well, so this is fascinating to me, right? Because if you were to read a book on how to turn around a company or you were to go to business school and take a course on like the best turnaround, you're not doing any of that. In fact, you're doing the opposite. There's a lot to be learned from books. But if Open Door could have been fixed by falling something that was written in a book, it would have already been fixed. Look, there's two things.
Starting point is 00:05:56 One, the people you hire is the company you build. So the first you can open door, I changed our career page. Our career page used to say something along the lines of, this is a happy place to work where we all care about each other. And, by the way, here are all of our ERGs. Open Door's career page now says, this will be. hard. Like, our job is to attract people who want to work hard. And we don't, like, we say this is not for you.
Starting point is 00:06:22 Like, I, my job is to try to convince you to not work at Open Door. So if you come, you're highly committed. So that's one thing. So the people end up being the company. The second thing ends up being that over a very long amount of time, groups of people tend to have tendencies towards niceties. So everyone ends up telling each other, nice lies, a series of white lies that take very off course. And a job of a founder type is to be,
Starting point is 00:06:52 you know, a nuclear bomb of truth over and over again. First principle truth. But what is important is to discover who you are, discover that kernel of truth, and build only on that, and then hire exceptionally good people and guide them. Was the view from the inside, like, for all of these nice lies, sort of aggregating into... to the company's doing okay? Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people had convinced themselves that bad things were happening to Open Door.
Starting point is 00:07:28 That Open Door was like this victim of the macroeconomic environment. You're not a victim type mentality that people develop, right? You know people who blame the world for everything that goes wrong with them. Open Door felt like that. A company was just mad at the world, mad at the world, mad at this.
Starting point is 00:07:45 partners, mad at customers because it blamed the outside world for everything that was happening to it. But how do you change that in the sense, like, you're one person, you're coming in and you have to have this equal and opposite force, I would imagine, to counteract this and start changing the culture. And you pull the curtain and you're like, guys, we need to. I mean, I think, I think like a commitment to truth over feelings is incredibly important. I sent my team, I have a blueprint that I sent to the entire account.
Starting point is 00:08:15 company because my job was to create strong repelling forces, i.e., I wanted everyone who didn't like how I was going to run the company to quit. You wanted people to opt out. Yeah, to opt, people opt out. And then that would create room for people to opt in from the outside. The most dangerous people in any company, if you grab a two-by-two chart, are competent but not mission-aligned people. So your job is to identify who they are and help them move on as fast as possible. What makes them so dangerous, though?
Starting point is 00:08:46 Well, because competent people have a way of tilting the org in their direction, right? Everyone has had at their job someone who is very good internal politics, and you can see that this person keeps getting promoted because your boss doesn't realize what they're doing. So my job I thought early on was to cause that rift to widen. We have had to basically hire an entirely new company, and that has been very painful. So if you sat down and had to write a document on like the key principles involved in turn around a business, what would they be?
Starting point is 00:09:20 I think changing defaults is incredibly difficult. So if you're going to change a default, you have to do it violently. Let me give you an example. Open Door was remote. Open Door was never going to become in person if we had a seven-step plan over eight months. I know this because Open Door had had many seven-step plan over eight months to become in person. and never worked. So, like, the only way to become
Starting point is 00:09:44 and personally for Open Door was was through significant amount of aggression. Transparently, I thought Open Door was a place where some people were kind of nailing it in. Yeah. Not everyone, but some people. So, um, I stopped at the office.
Starting point is 00:09:57 I thought Open Door was a place where people were unwilling to take, you know, risks. So we took risks public. So they went, like, you need to figure out which defaults are killing the company and change them violently. There must not be, change management because you want to change to feel jarring. Second, you must tell people what you
Starting point is 00:10:20 expect of them. Most company's mission statements end up being bland, pale imitations of statements. We're here for the good of the world. Ye PIA, who isn't? Right? But you have to say things that a reasonable person would say, I don't want any of that. If you figure out what those things are, because it matters. And third, if you're starting as a CEO of a new company, I strongly urge you this. Be committed to truth over feelings. Truth over feelings all the goddamn time, because you will invariably, over time, find that you will get rounder edges if you're not careful. Double click on the truth over feelings thing, though, because, I mean, most people think that they already do that?
Starting point is 00:11:12 I think what happens is people are truthful within the context of the situation and the people they're in the room with. The larger the room is, the less space there is for truth, right? But that is the death of companies. This is why big companies are so usually average. I mean, a pizza thing, teen is real, right?
Starting point is 00:11:39 Like having small teams is real, because you can be truthful in small rooms. You can say things you would never say in a big room. And you need to get that in a company if you're like a new CEO of a company. You need to discover who are the speakers of truth and get them in a room alone such as you can discover things. Otherwise, you will die. So what's a meeting with CAS like?
Starting point is 00:12:00 We try very hard not to have meetings unless they're needed because meetings are a bug in the system. Wait, go deeper on that. So meetings exist because people could not get the information they needed to make decisions before their meeting. So most meetings are like context sharing. Yeah. So typically we only have meetings where we're broadcasting, not narrowcasting.
Starting point is 00:12:23 And our meetings end up being relatively full of disagreement. Go deeper on that. So there's no point to have a meeting where we all agree. And we believe it is impolite not to disagree. Our meetings tend to be louder than the average company. company's meeting, more ordinary than the average company's meeting. And, like, I mean, it happens with some frequency where people just leave in a middle of a meeting because they have nothing to contribute. It's impolite not to leave a meeting in which you have nothing to contribute.
Starting point is 00:12:55 So our meetings end up being much more collaborative and much less let me present something to you. How do you disagree without being disagreeable? So in my blueprint, I sent to a whole company. I said, I value being told I'm wrong. Like, our commitment is to a truth. When we make a mistake, open door made a mistake. All mistakes belong to open door. All information belongs to open door.
Starting point is 00:13:21 So when you and I disagree, we're not doing it because I dislike you. We're doing it because I respect you and I believe you and I are on the same team. I wrote a post that I published called Say the Thing. A while ago and it became part of Shopify's lawyer. and people would say say the thing to me, which I appreciated. So most people sit in rooms or watch a Slack message and have a large disagreement, but they don't want to be the person that, you know, farted in church. So they don't say what's on their brain.
Starting point is 00:13:53 So when I got to shoplight, it was true when I got to Open Door, I would sit in meetings where everyone would act like everything was going well. But things were not going well. you could tell things we're not going well by a shape of the chart. So I would note about the shop why I said, hey, say the thing, say it now. Like the second you know something, say it.
Starting point is 00:14:16 Say it about the thing, not the person. Always say this sucks, not you suck. And say it until you've been heard. People don't have to agree with you, but they have to hear you. So if you feel like you're not being heard, say it over and over again until you feel like you've been heard.
Starting point is 00:14:34 because you get paid to do this at Open Door. So it's incredibly important. Say it now, don't wait. Second, say it about the thing, not the person, say it over and over again until you've been heard. And those three things are a cultural expectation. Not doing it is considered rude. And this has been a very real part of our learning at Open Door
Starting point is 00:14:58 is allowing people to object to things that are stupid. Do you think it's a turnaround or like a refounding? I think it's a new company because AI has made it's a different company. Because look, what about Open Door's business is difficult? The operational complexity of the physical asset. And what do you need to make that operational complexity go away? You need very low-cost, fast decision-making at scale with data. We have built an AI exoskeleton around every human being in Open Door,
Starting point is 00:15:33 such as they can be three-finding. Forex more efficient than everyone else. To give you a sense, the last time Open Door bought as many homes as we bought last quarter, Open Door's OPEX was more than twice as high. In a world where prices have gone up
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Starting point is 00:17:07 and when they do Madik rolls into action. Go to Madikrobots.com today and put Maddoch to work for you. Do you think of AI as replacing people and labor, or do you think of it as amplifying the ability of a particular person I see? I think what AI does is two things. One, it lowers the need for human management. Right? If you look at any company, you end up with these very,
Starting point is 00:17:40 very long tales of managers, managing managers, before anyone does any actual work. And AI, because it takes the communication, a barrier down so much we can share more information more broadly, it just collapses the company, the chains of the company. The second thing it does, and what it has done at Open Door, is AI fundamentally changes who wins and who loses, that people who use AI well will win,
Starting point is 00:18:10 be more of them. OpenJuels more engineers today than I did when I joined because we use AI well. What are the most powerful mental models that you find yourself coming back to over and over again? Actually, you know me a bit so you know this is true. I have these written down. First, friction is underestimated. Two, map is not to train three truth over feelings. Those are like that. Three. So let me give you the first one. Everyone has seen the supply and demand graph in their life, but people underestimate the invisible hand of friction on where those two things cross.
Starting point is 00:18:54 The total market size of Walmart would have been massively underestimated. Same with Amazon, same with Google, because before these things existed, everyone thought the market was smaller because there was so much friction in the market. When you reduce friction in a system, you just get a lot more of whatever you reduce friction on. Right.
Starting point is 00:19:14 And if you look at the Open Door parallel, before I got the Open Door, from the time you entered your address into our homepage, the time you got an offer, there'd be 11 people on the path, many, many, many days, many, many processes, many, many docs. All of it friction.
Starting point is 00:19:29 And every one of these were removed, increased demand. we're buying six to seven times more homes this week than we did last year this week. And it's almost entirely because we reduced friction. The second one is like the map is not the train, which is like I find the one that I wish I could teach corporate America. I think Hayek is just genuinely underappreciated.
Starting point is 00:19:56 He gave a speech called pretense of knowledge. But the entire speech is basically about this idea that all of us confuse the map for the train for a train that affect the land if you were in Europe
Starting point is 00:20:13 pre-discovery or the new world you would look at a map from an expert and trust it right? Yeah. Because everyone did. It just so happens that unless you recognize
Starting point is 00:20:26 you're looking at a first derivative of a fact, not the actual fact, you almost always will build models of the world that end up drifting from reality. And this is how companies go bankrupt over time because they continually drift more derivative, more derivative. They build models upon models.
Starting point is 00:20:48 And no one says, excuse me, like, how far am I from the fact? But how do you do that? As a company, how do you stay in contact with reality? Dashboards are wonderful things, but most corporate executives run the entire company on dashboards, and that is a derivative of facts,
Starting point is 00:21:07 it's not the facts. You're playing like SimCity. Hey, you don't know when the environment changes. You end up losing a feeling for the business. Ray Crock, the founder of McDonald's, used to go into the kitchens. Yeah, he'd be like, that's too much catchout.
Starting point is 00:21:23 You watch undercover boss, and they're always surprised by what's happening in their company. And again, I'm like, why are you surprised? Like, how are you surprised? How did you not know? Like, what is the job if it's not understanding how your product touches the customer?
Starting point is 00:21:41 But how do you do that? As a company, how do you stay in contact with reality and in contact with the ever-shifting terrain? I talk to our customers every single week. Every single week. I go visit our homes all the time, all the time. I look at the raw database all the time. I built my own dashboards all the time.
Starting point is 00:22:03 And I find that at least that gives me less ability to be fooled. And it gives you a huge context window. It does. You just have to, just have to do it. So the map is not true. And the last one, which we talked about a bunch, which is truth over feelings. There is a level of suicidal empathy that people have developed
Starting point is 00:22:25 that is just deadly. It is killing our best companies because people are assuming that everyone is thin-skinned and they're assuming that people are offended by facts. And I'm just sorry. Facts do not care about your feelings. They just don't.
Starting point is 00:22:46 And it's incredibly important that everyone be committed to truth. I want to come back to the turnaround for one second because Shopify was a remote work culture. Yeah. And one of the first things
Starting point is 00:22:58 you said you did was everybody's in the office Monday or you've opted out of working here. Yeah. Why? First of all, I don't think remote works. Generally, it only works for Shopify.
Starting point is 00:23:10 And that's because we built more software to make remote work than anyone reasonably thought we could. And I think the jury has fully come back on this topic that companies that are primarily remote end up having slower cycles. And if you look at startups, it just tends to be true.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Why do you think that is? Like, what explains that? You lose a lot of culture. It's very hard to build culture remotely. Because Open Doors' core mission is difficult, we need to make other things easier. And I think the best thing, everyone intuitively understands
Starting point is 00:23:46 if you played any sports growing up, you understand that the thing that causes you to build camaraderie is doing hard things together in person and winning. Like high school football teams have amazing cultures. Yeah. Amazing. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:24:04 And look, we do a very hard thing, but we do it in person with our colleagues shoulder to shoulder, where we celebrate our victories together and if failures we see together so we can actually get through them together. That's one thing. The second, look, a lot of communication gets lost in remote companies. And third, inter-company multiculturalism does not work.
Starting point is 00:24:28 What does that mean? Companies cannot have multiple cultures. They just can't. They just die. If you allow a company to have many different cultures where you end up creating is use all short form of communication. And you end up spending a lot of time aligning people such that you can move. And it's much easier to have a uniculture company.
Starting point is 00:24:52 much easier if you're in person. I talked to somebody inside the turnaround who reports to you now, and he said, you've killed more things in nine months than most CEOs do in a decade. What did you kill? In my first four weeks, I killed two entire business lines. Open Door used to have essentially we provided general contractor services to other companies, which was a profitable business for us, but it was not the mission and company.
Starting point is 00:25:25 Our job isn't to become the world's best contractor, so we killed that. We had a business where we essentially called Odie Select, which we essentially were like quasi-builders, that we would take essentially homes that were like unlivable and just build them from scratch up. Profitable business side for us killed it off. Because again, that's not our job.
Starting point is 00:25:43 Our builders in the world, we're not one of them. We're a market maker. It's a different job. If you think of my time, at Open Door, I think it's reasonable to say I've only started three products and we've shut down a few dozen. You start mortgage? Mortgage, our buyer product and our new product cash down more later, which existed in an odd shape,
Starting point is 00:26:06 but it exists under me now in much, much real way. What does it mean to be a market maker in housing? Yeah, so if you look at the history of assets, the way assets grow on the internet, has been basically similar. First, someone solves the discovery problem. I need to find X. Craigslist is the best example of this. Then someone comes and says,
Starting point is 00:26:29 okay, you know what? I can build trust. Now you have found something. You know who you're dealing with. I build a trust layer. PayPal is a great example of this. Actually, eBay, Discovery, PayPal, trust. I will allow you to trust your counterparty.
Starting point is 00:26:43 Yep. And the third player almost always tends to be someone who says, great. I will help you both find something, trust the counterparty, and underwrite the risk on both transactions. Amazon. And usually in the marketplace of, like, under internet, the third player wins because they reduced the friction so she can have much more volume, right? If you go back to 2002, everyone thought eBay was going to win against Amazon. Yeah, but clearly has not happened.
Starting point is 00:27:15 Amazon won because it's solved the full problem. Now it's a much harder problem to solve. So the job of a market maker is to stand between two people who want to transact and allow them to transact with you such that they don't have to try to look for each other and find them. And that's our job for housing, right? The largest problem in housing is people want to move
Starting point is 00:27:36 and they can't because they have not found a buyer for their home. And our job at Open Door is say, we're that buyer. We will buy your home. Come to Open Door.com, type of your address, we'll buy your home at a fair price and then we'll sell it to someone whenever that person is available.
Starting point is 00:27:49 So how does Open Door make money then? Like how do you become insanely profitable doing that? We make our money in two ways. First, we make money each transaction, relatively thin margins of these transaction. But we make our real money from the first derivative of the business, which is mortgage, insurance,
Starting point is 00:28:07 Thailand and escrow, all the things that go with the home. So our job is to buy and sell a home at fair prices as fast as we can and make our money on the services you get. This, by the way, is how we built Shopify. If you look at Shopify, you can buy Shopify the software for $1.
Starting point is 00:28:26 And it's $1 because you can't possibly be less. The credit cards won't let you charge less than a dollar. And Shopify makes most of this money by you succeeding on Shopify, by services and provides you. And this has always been true. People misunderstand how businesses work. It has always been true
Starting point is 00:28:42 that some of the biggest companies in the world have been built on the first derivative of the core business. Google does not make money from you're searching for things. Google makes money from showing you ads while you're searching for things. How did you learn this concept?
Starting point is 00:28:56 I've just been always interested in the history of companies. It just seemed relatively obvious to me that that had what had happened in the world, that these ancillary businesses to core business had become a real thing. Because if you had how software grew, The way software used to be sold
Starting point is 00:29:15 is you came to me for software, I wrote some code and handed it to you and they ran away because I would make all my money from like the implementation, right? And then SaaS came along and SaaS companies said, hold on, I will make money from you over a very long time from the
Starting point is 00:29:30 relationship. And then Shopify came along and said, cool, I will make very money from you for a very long time over a relationship but from services, right? And that pattern has always held true in every business because there is a word for people who make all their money from you up front and never talk to you again.
Starting point is 00:29:47 We call them Carnies. They come to town, they get to take your money, and run away. Yeah. Right? That's not how businesses work. No one trusts someone where you know that the second this relationship is over, you'll never see me again. But that's how the largest asset people have transact.
Starting point is 00:30:07 It's crazy. It is insane. That this is how we deal with a large, just asset class in the world. You would never trust the stockbroker that made all their money from you from one trade. You would just never trust that person. It is very real that, like, for the good of a relationship, it is important that you and I be committed to knowing each other for a very long time. I built an AI version of myself with Hey Jen. Today, I'll have a dig up an old prediction that I made, and we'll each grade it. Let's give it a shot. Hey, Shane, you once predicted
Starting point is 00:30:40 that long form would beat short form for anything that actually mattered. Create that prediction today. Hey, I was directionally right, but I underestimated just how much short form would become the front door to long form content. I agree you were right, but for the wrong reason, you thought attention spans would recover. They didn't. People just got better at choosing when to go deep.
Starting point is 00:31:02 Right call? Lucky logic. Well, I got the right answer with the wrong math, but I'll take it. That's hey, Jen. Record yourself for 15 seconds. and get an AI avatar that delivers professional video on demand. Your first three videos are free at hagen.com slash tkp. That's h-e-y-g-en.com slash tkp.
Starting point is 00:31:23 Ever hit 3pm and feel like your brain just quit? For a lot of people, that's not caffeine or sleep. It's electrolytes. And water alone won't fix it. That's why I drink Element every day after lunch. Zero sugar, no dodgy and gritty. just a real dose of sodium, potassium, and magnesium. I know you're all thinking electrolytes are for athletes,
Starting point is 00:31:47 but you don't have to be an athlete to benefit from it, and it tastes great. Stay sharp in the afternoon and grab a free eight-count sample pack with any purchase at drinkelement.com slash tkp. That's drinklmnt.t.com slash tkp. So one of your principles was sort of say the thing, but I was surprised another one was get shit done. Why do you have to tell people
Starting point is 00:32:17 to get shit done? So let me tell you a story. Toby Luke is among the most thoughtful people on the planet. There's a reason why people call them the founder's founder. If you walk the offices of Shopify, first of all, they're incredibly thoughtfully designed,
Starting point is 00:32:32 but they all sit on the walls, do things tell people. And I always found that was all. I actually haven't had a conversation with Toby about this, But I realize that, like, in most companies, the order is reversed. Like, most companies is tell people, then do things. In most companies, this is what happens.
Starting point is 00:32:54 You have an idea. You spend a lot of time writing memos about that idea to get buy-in about that idea before you can have a meeting so that I can approve that idea. And the whole process that takes many months before you can do the thing. the chain of command designed to minimize risk. And there's two ways to deal with that, chain of command. The first is to do what Amazon said. Amazon became a default yes call.
Starting point is 00:33:22 Most companies are default no. The chain of command is designed to reduce risk and say no to many things, right? That's what it does. Amazon said, no, no, no, but a default yes company, which worked incredibly well for Amazon. But I think a better way to deal with this problem, is to not have the chain of command,
Starting point is 00:33:42 to minimize a number of people who can say no, and only have people that you want and trust to do things. This, by the way, is not... People, this is not a theoretical thing. I want to give you this very specific example. I got to open door,
Starting point is 00:33:59 and I realized that for a substantial number of homes we had bought, the person who was supposed to be made it, would show up, and the... power would not be on in the home. And when this happened, the person was managing a home would get a note saying, hey, power isn't on.
Starting point is 00:34:18 And this person would have good to Salesforce, flat a form. That form would get emailed to someone else. They would look at it. Then they would ask for permission from the manager to turn the power on. Then they would call the utility company to turn the power on.
Starting point is 00:34:32 They would mail something. There would be a back and forth that involved three or four managers. And I thought this was a nudist thing ever. So we literally gave everyone corporate cards and said, hey, if you see a home whose power is not on, if you type in the address into Slack, you will get back the phone number you're supposed to call, the account number you're supposed to say, and the credit card number you can get them to turn on power. We're the largest buyers of home in North America.
Starting point is 00:34:59 And by Open Door was not run by unintelligent people. There were highly credentialed people. But the general incentive inside every company is to reduce risk as much as possible. And the way you reduce risk is more process, more people in the path. So do things, becomes actually difficult. I think of this is like nobody would want to wake up in that state, right? Like you would never create the end state that they were operating in as like the goal. So somewhere it just gets like one degree off course, you know.
Starting point is 00:35:35 and that one degree starts to compound as time goes on and on and on. This is a thing among, I'll use not a pilot example. I want to be a pilot. My wife won't let me. Smart. Listen to your wife. I have a bunch of plain analogies. But there's a very real thing that happens to new pilots.
Starting point is 00:35:52 New pilots go into clouds and they turn slightly, slightly, slightly, slightly. And people say you'd be surprised by a number of new pilots who come out of clouds fully inverted. Because you basically end up upside down one degree at a time. That's basically what happens to every company. This is a very good sign that your company is upside down. If you have acronyms, if you have lots of acronyms, the odds are you're upside down as a company. Because acronyms are things that people do when they want to create in cultures and out cultures. By definition. So if you have acronyms, the odds are what you have done has created so many in groups and outgroups,
Starting point is 00:36:40 that no one can tell if anyone else is inverted. And the only one who can tell someone is inverted is someone above the chain, who can look at both of these things. Unfortunately, most corporate CEOs don't go that deep. Right? They manage the dashboards. This comes back to sort of like trying to touch reality
Starting point is 00:36:57 and being in the weeds and having a bigger context window. I've literally turned on utilities. I've fixed work orders. I like, because you have to do it. Otherwise, I don't know how you, like, Elon famously sleeps at the factory. And people think it's like a meme. People think he does it for show.
Starting point is 00:37:18 I don't think he does it for show. I think it's literally the only way to do things. Well, that sort of begs the question. How important are the words that we use to communicate ideas? Like, how do we make ideas more transferable in a company? Yeah. Early on in my career, I used to ask everyone who worked on my team to read Orwell's essay, Politics and English Language. It's an incredibly good essay. Because in it, he talks about how English is among the most powerful tools ever invented by humanity in the English language. And I say
Starting point is 00:37:59 as someone who was not, English is not my first language. But Orwell says, English is in trouble because words have lost their meanings. And the word uses is fascism. In the essay, he says, fascism doesn't mean anything anymore because everyone's a fascist. Like, everyone gets called a fascist. Anyone I don't like is a fascist. Therefore, fascism doesn't mean anything anymore. I usually share this essay with people I work with because in order for language to be useful,
Starting point is 00:38:24 we must hold it properly. In English is an incredibly powerful tool if you speak simply. and that is an incredibly important thing to learn inside a company. And it's incredible to guard against it because most business talk is designed to confuse the listener, deliberately confused the listener. I challenge anyone to find any sentence that includes the word leverage that means anything. Like, it just means almost nothing all the time. And there's a series of these words that are really, common in the corporate world that are designed to have a low density of information to words.
Starting point is 00:39:11 And they're sort of ambiguous, right? So it's like, I can weasel out of whatever happens because this word can mean multiple things. Yeah, it's very, there's another one, but I mean, it's, it's, the passive tense is another example of this very, the passive tense is very bad, but even the worse is othering of facts. Let me give you an example. Legal decided that X would be true. I have a rule at open door that people decide things, not teams. So whenever someone says legal decide X, I'm like, who? Legal doesn't get to decide thing. Like was a name of the person. Because if you named the person, what you are doing is you cannot round the edges of what they This is how you end up mutating everything into bad by taking away specifics of the situation and living with generalities.
Starting point is 00:40:12 Like you're a pale pink imitation of everything. Yeah. When I look at a company, I sort of look at it through strategy, operations, capital allocation, and people. How do you look at a company? Products, man. I think a products first. I really do. I think most people over-emphasize strategy.
Starting point is 00:40:30 I must think strategy isn't important, but it's usually not that complicated. There are very few businesses where strategy has been the cause for the win. Usually it's exceptional execution by the one company that shared the same strategy as seven other companies. It's the best executor one. Google's strategy was not meaningfully different than the other 25 search engines. If execution was different. I think strategy is important, but far less important than people think it is. I think what tends to be very important and far more important that people think it is, is the product.
Starting point is 00:41:11 Like, is the product deeply useful to the end user? Can you find 1,000 people who love the product? And if you can, you have to be our right track. If you can't, all the capital in the world won't save. you. How do you think about risk? A lot of people think, you know, for instance, that delaying a decision reduces risk. I think it almost always does the opposite. Like, there are very few decisions that gathering more facts will help. I actually did this the other day. I was in a meeting and some one of our colleagues said,
Starting point is 00:41:59 hey, we're going to run this A-B test and then decide what to do. And I said, guys, I'm from the future. I'm from six weeks from now. The A-B test was 51% positive. Tell me what you're going to do. What most tech companies end up doing, I think of AB tests are like the most,
Starting point is 00:42:21 because people misunderstand and statistics and misunderstand like what mean average error means and the compounding nature of mean average error, people misunderstand these things. What for most tech companies, AB tests have done have been the safety blanket for management.
Starting point is 00:42:43 I don't have to make a decision. Like this is like Google famously AB test that's in like 400 different shades of blue. Yeah. I'm like, dude, it didn't. It didn't matter. I promise you, it didn't matter. It reverted to the mean it could have been any shade of blue. It would have been fine. I'm not saying that AB tests don't matter, to be clear. I'm not saying that. But what I am saying, I'm saying AB tests matter a lot. But they cannot replace human judgment. Of course, yeah. And if you sit in a room and tell me, like, a one slight deviation of shade of blue matters,
Starting point is 00:43:25 I just don't want to be in a room with you. There's a lot of people in life that I feel there's a parallel here. There's a lot of people in life who feel lost, maybe a little bit rudderless, the North Star is not there. They know they're capable of so much more. And the parallel to me is this is like open door when you come into it. You know, things aren't working as good as they could be. There's still a heartbeat, and you're sort of going through the motions, and you're on this slow road to death. Like, how could somebody apply these principles to their life outside of the corporate structure?
Starting point is 00:44:00 If you know anyone who's had a problem with alcohol and their life is draining away, what usually happens to turn around is an intervention. It's a deeply uncomfortable moment of truth. Yeah. The first step is taking ownership over the problem. Right? They're taking ownership, I understand, are things I can do. Right? There's a reason why AA works so well.
Starting point is 00:44:36 Because you do things. You track your accountability. Like day one, week one. month one, you track over and over again thing, your accountability, and you do the right thing over and over again. And the score tends to take care of itself over a very long period of time.
Starting point is 00:44:53 And I think that pattern tends to be one that is repeatable over and over again. If you look at yourself and say, I am to blame for my problems, as hard and as someone who does it more frequently in the average
Starting point is 00:45:11 person, it can't and feel lonely. Luckily for me, I have an incredibly supportive family. So those days where I say, hey, I'm in a mistake, I am to be blamed. I have my wife and my kids, and that makes a world a difference.
Starting point is 00:45:36 I also pray more than the average person. So it helps me find the ability to look at the mirror and say, you screwed up, you should do better, you can't do better. And I just feel that I'm not holding my past self-guilty, but just do better. And I think that pattern is as repeatable in companies as it is in people. How do you not hang on to that? A lot of people go through that. They make a mistake.
Starting point is 00:46:05 They'll even admit that they made a mistake. And then they become paralyzed by fear. I have high degree of sympathy to people who do that. I really do. One of the best parts about being a founder, which is why I think founders are such unique characters. Basically, every founder I know has had to look at like a bank account statement and count how many payrolls they are away from like not be able to make payroll.
Starting point is 00:46:32 Yeah. And that usually shakes you pretty good. Yeah. Because if you do nothing, you're dead. Like Paul Graham has this essay, but he calls it default dead. And you just have to do something. Like action creates information. You have to do something.
Starting point is 00:46:48 And so I think that allows founders just to act differently than other people would. But I don't want to pretend like I know all the answers. But I can tell you this. You will find that the first thing to fix is easy, intuitive. and makes you feel good. And people who win tend to win over and over again. So the analogy I use internally at Open Door is this. Chemical spills are notoriously difficult to solve and clean up.
Starting point is 00:47:21 But if you arrive at the site of a chemical spill, the first bit is really easy to solve. Just grab a shovel. The last bit requires a bunch of microscopes and shit. But the first bit is shovel territory, man. It's like your grandfather's wisdom, right? When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:47:42 No, it's real. It's interesting you sort of mentioned not making payroll. And you know what that made me think of is the moment Steve Jobs, if there was one moment where Steve Jobs became the Steve Jobs that we all remember, it was the 93, I think it was bankruptcy of the hardware division at next. Yeah, yes. Like that was the moment where he. started to change his behavior.
Starting point is 00:48:07 In a movie, there's this very famous scene where Steve Jobs had fired the Apple 2 team. And was as like, you have to recognize these people. Like, they worked hard. You have to recognize that they worked hard. It gets angry. It's like, you almost bankrupted the company. Like, there is a very real thing that if you have come close to death.
Starting point is 00:48:30 Yeah. And if you look at the balance, you're like, Holy God, I only have X number payrolls left. You do not care at all what it looks like. You just care about what it is. You realize that you can put up with more pain than you think you can. Like, everyone has a higher pain tolerance that they think they have. Is part of that sort of not caring what other people think?
Starting point is 00:48:53 Like the courage to be disliked and thinking. So many people optimize their life in order not to be disliked versus on mission or towards a goal or... First of all, a courage to be selected as an excellent book. Everyone should read it, but it's a very real thing where most people's limitations are self-imposed.
Starting point is 00:49:14 We're capable of so much... Yeah, which everyone is, and everyone's pain is more imaginative you think it is. And you intuitively understand it when it comes to everyone else, but in yourself, you have a hard time dealing with that.
Starting point is 00:49:30 Running a public company is incredibly difficult if you care what the Wall Street Journal says about you. I just don't. I've never cared. Is that learned or something you... I just think what happened was I immigrated from Iran, my family fled Iran, and when we moved, I was a teenager, and I didn't get into any clubs. And by the time I had grown up and I could get into clubs, I cared way less about them.
Starting point is 00:50:03 So I just grew up making a feature out of a necessity. And that, I think, has played a very large role in my life. And it's the second thing, which is very real. I played rugby in high school. And I am not a big dude, but I'm fast and have a high-pay tolerance. And I really, really enjoy winning as a team. Rugby is actually a special sport for this. It's crazy.
Starting point is 00:50:43 It tends to be a sport that if you play in North America that basically never has an audience. Like, no one goes to watch rugby games in North America, really. So you do it for your friends, you do it for your teammates, not for the audience, but you get something better out of it, which is like this idea of, like, being in pain while winning as a team. There's like something very deeply joyful about bleeding out of your knee while winning as a team.
Starting point is 00:51:10 This episode is brought to you by Accenture. When your advertising operations fall out of sync, everything else follows. Spotify and Accenture are working together to reinvent the rhythm of ad sales, using automation, analytics, and smarter workflows to simplify campaign delivery and access better data across the business.
Starting point is 00:51:28 The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms, that matter most. Learn more at Accenture.com slash Spotify. Is it R. Sharp, who founded Four Seasons said excellence is the capacity to take pain.
Starting point is 00:51:45 Mm-hmm. Do you agree with that? Yeah. Yeah, over a very long period of time, by the way. The person who can hold your hand over the fire the longest tends to be the winner. The difference between doing something incredibly well and doing it poorly is not that high,
Starting point is 00:52:02 but people just give up too soon. Unfortunately, I think the sugar rush of easy, like, satisfaction in the modern world has underprepared people for pain. We always end these interviews with the same question, which is, what is success for you? I have four kids. There are seven, five, three, and two. And I care a great deal about what they say to their kids, that they're kids. dad did. When my wife and I got married, we agreed they would optimize our marriage for putting a dent in the world. That's what we would spend our time on. And that would be our definition of success
Starting point is 00:52:48 in our marriage. So I try to wake up every day and think what is the most, the thing I can do that leaves the biggest dent on the world. Like I think most people in my position would have looked at the open door opportunity and not run at full speed. But I ran at full speed because this feels like a problem of a shape that I should be able to solve for the world. And my team and I should be able to solve for the world. So that's what I want to do. I want my kids to grow up and be able to be proud of their dad's career because, in this is important because they are sacrificing a part of their childhood and for my career. I'm not around as much as I should be.
Starting point is 00:53:46 I don't put them to bed every night. And it matters that that time away from them is used for the good of the world. So I hold myself accountable. And thankfully, my wife also holds me accountable to that end. and

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