The New Yorker Radio Hour - The Election, as Seen from Swing States

Episode Date: October 2, 2020

Joe Biden leads the Presidential race in Pennsylvania by around ten per cent, according to most polls, but Eliza Griswold says you wouldn’t know it on the ground. Republicans in the state have organized a huge registration drive in recent years, and, while Griswold was driving to Biden’s working-class birthplace of Scranton, she saw Trump signs blanketing the lawns and roads. Peter Slevin, reporting from Wisconsin, tells David Remnick that Democrats there organized early, to avoid the mistake that Hillary Clinton made in 2016 of taking the state for granted. Even so, Biden’s campaign has declined to do risky in-person events, but the Trump campaign, until recently, has proceeded as if coronavirus had never happened. Plus, Andrew Marantz talks with a Tennessee pastor who’s struggling with the intersection of politics and faith. New Yorker Radio Hour listeners, we want to hear from you.  We have a few questions about the show and how you listen to it. The survey takes about twenty minutes, and your feedback will help us make our podcast better.  Take the survey here.

This is The New Yorker Radio Hour, a co-production of WNYC Studios and The New Yorker. Welcome to The New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm David Remnick. If history is any guide at all, the 2020 election will be decided in a few key swing states, maybe even a limited number of swing counties. Today we're going to talk with a couple of our reporters who are looking at what's happening on the ground. I went to Lackawanna County because I wanted to see who these new Republicans were in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania and how they were trying to capture Biden's backyard. That's Eliza Griswold. She's based in Philadelphia, and lately she's been spending a lot of time to the north in Lackawanna County.

That's the county seat of the very familiar city of Scranton, Pennsylvania, the hometown of Joe Biden. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the county, but just barely. And since then, the Republican Party has registered more than 100,000 voters in the state of Pennsylvania. These new voters are people who have been in the Democratic Party for decades, whose families were largely Democratic, belong to labor unions, and have grown disaffected with the Democratic Party, and really lots of institutions in Pennsylvania over decades. I mean, here in the past decade we've had the Penn State Sandusky sex scandal, the Catholic Church sex scandals, and also so many elected local officials. who have been indicted for embezzlement and other crimes. And that kind of lack of faith in institutions has really resulted in a departure of long-term Democrats from the Democratic Party and they've become Republicans.

Now, why would that drive them to Donald Trump necessarily? You know, I think it's different for different reasons. For older voters, for older Democratic, largely Catholic voters, you know, reproductive rights and abortion is just a hugely divisive issue. And for that reason, as they've watched the Democratic Party move left, they have moved right. And that's why they support Trump. And among younger voters, you know,

there's this belief that he is anti-establishment, that somehow he's an outsider, that he speaks truth to power, and it's hard to get around that. Why did you focus on Lackawanna County in your writing for The New Yorker? Because Lackawanna County has traditionally been so blue because it is Biden's home county and because it is turning red. And when you drive from a Philadelphia suburb to Scranton, you don't just see Trump signs.

You see Trump banners. And at a factor of like maybe 10 to 1 Biden. And it's hard to know obviously what that really means, but I have to say it is striking. Did you talk with people who were once Democrats and have now switched over the Republican Party? Is that a big part of your reporting? Absolutely, yes. And one of the people I talked to was Dave Elliott, who is the former police chief in Scranton. And he has traditionally been a Democrat.

He has voted Republican. He voted for Trump last time, too. And for him, you know, for what it's worth, the principal issue for him is support of the police and support of law enforcement. Joe Biden, who has always been privileged. pro-police. And if you look back at, what was it, the violent crime control and law enforcement act, 1994. Yeah. If you look at that, he touted that. This is the Biden law. Now he's completely flipped. And Trump is, like I said, from day one, he's been pro-police. Now, first of all, I should say that the tap, tap, tap you hear in the background is the sound of Eliza taking notes.

Now, how do you think Dave Elliott, former police chief at Scranton, reacts to the spectacle of the Trump Biden debate, the first one? You know, I don't think he pays any attention. You know, I don't think a lot of Trump voters listen to the noise. They've already decided. Now, for decades, Scranton itself was a big union town where almost everybody was a Democrat. When you were spending time there,

did you sense any tension between these new Trump voters and people who are still Democrats? Yes. I did sense tension. I think there is an absolute divide in this country that runs right through Scranton, and it runs between house to house. You know, there's the one tiny Biden sign and the massive Trump make liberals cry again banner next door, or two or three hanging from a porch. And this divide between neighbors was apparent on Elliott's own street. I mean, he didn't have a sign out front, but there were Trump signs lining it. the thing is, Liza, if we, if polls are to be believed, and we are all on pins and needles about that, Biden is ahead of Trump by 10 points in the state of Pennsylvania, where Trump won last time, of course, over Hillary Clinton.

Absolutely right. And, you know, some of the Trump voters who I have been talking to over the past several weeks and months are actually those we would call secret Trump voters. There's so many people that are supporting Trump that you wouldn't know about. And I think it's kind of just to stay away from the politics because if you're not a Trump supporter, you are so anti-Trump. If somebody comes out and voices their opinion, it's so negative. I think a lot of people just stay low and they don't want to fight. But there are regular Republicans that they're not that, you know, the Confederate flag backing Trump. You know, I always said, well, my father always said, don't be discussing politics or religion. and you won't be getting in these big fights.

Eliza, you visited the Republican office in Scranton. What was the scene there were people wearing masks? What were they talking about? There was not a mask in sight in the former bank-com sandwich shop on Main Street. I happened to be there the day before Trump arrived for a rally. So it was a mad scramble to put together road signs. Why? Because they wanted to basically plaster the two-mile stretch.

between the airport and the rally so that Trump would be very pleased and feel very loved when he arrived. Now, campaigning involves a lot of going door to door talking to people. How has the pandemic changed the canvassing process, the campaigning process? So largely what's happening is that Republicans are going door to door. You know, in northeastern Pennsylvania, the head of the Republican Party was saying they've knocked on 50,000 doors in the past several months. Now, there are figures where the Trump campaign will put out saying they're knocking on a million doors a week, which are really suspicious and very difficult to check.

But that is their numbers. Is that radically more than Democrats are knocking on doors? Democrats, the Biden campaign is knocking on zero doors. And that comes right from the top of the campaign. And that is about public health safety and following state measures to not put people in harm's way outside of your house. household. And yeah, basically that's what's happening. Now, you've also talked to some people who voted for Trump in 2016 who've changed their mind. They're going to vote Democratic in 2020. How common is that? It's, you know, it's not that common. I talked to one woman whose name is Patricia Healey.

She's a lifelong Republican and a public school teacher who teaches Spanish and did for 27 years voted for Trump in 2016. She went out to a rally in a place called Wilkins. Berrary, which is rural, she was pretty impressed by the energy around him, and she thought, well, okay, I'm just going to vote for him. And basically since the day after the election, she has regretted it. You know, I have talked to my daughter, I've kind of transitioned. I went from hope in the beginning to disappointment, then to anger. I have been really, really angry, angry at the things that he's doing, and so obviously doing, the last of which was the post office, of course, but what people don't realize or don't think is he's also going after

public education. And I don't understand what people are not more aware of what this man is doing. Eliza, when you talk about Scranton, this is Joe Biden's hometown. He manages to mention Scranton within the first five minutes of every speech, every debate he's had in 47 years. What's his presence in that town? His presence in the town is complicated. If you talk to Republicans, they're going to tell you that Biden left Scranton at the age of 11 and that he comes every time he needs to use a town as a backdrop. Democrats will tell you the opposite, that here is their hometown boy made good.

And I have been, you know, before the presidential, election. When I was out reporting on Connor Lamb, another fraud election in southwestern Pennsylvania, Biden came out for Lamb. And he was at a machinist union giving a speech. The love for that man among the labor unions was like something I haven't seen before for a Democrat. So that is also true. It's not as if he moved to Fifth Avenue. I mean, he lives in Wilmington, Delaware, and obviously he's also a creature of Washington, D.C. It's not as if he lives in, I don't know, a golden tower. Honestly, for many of the people in Scranton, there is such a divide in Pennsylvania that reflects the divide in the nation. And Wilmington, Delaware is just as much as any gilded tower anywhere.

Eliza, for a Democrat, you've painted a pretty gloomy picture of what can be anticipated on November 3rd. And yet, there are many more registered Democrats in the state of Pennsylvania than Republicans, are they not? That's correct. There are many more registered Democrats. And the truth is that they are growing because the areas of the southeastern part of the state, which are turning from red to blue, are actually the places where the population is growing too. So right now in this election, it's hard to call, but going forward, that's good news for Democrats. And again, there's a gap in the polls that is pretty yawning between Biden and Trump and Biden's ahead. That is so true, David. And I just think this time around, not to make the same mistakes and take the polls for granted, it's worth listening up until November 3rd and maybe after.

Eliza Griswold, thank you so much. Thanks, David. We're going to shift now to the state of Wisconsin. It's one of the most watched states in this election after Donald Trump's surprise victory there in 2016. You know, as I speak today, more than 90,000 Americans have lost. live this pandemic, including more than 450 Wisconsinites. Joe Biden is taking his campaign virtually to Wisconsin. State Representative... And a very big, hello, Wisconsin.

We've been very good together. Contributing writer Peter Slevin has been traveling around Wisconsin, hearing from voters and from organizers. Peter, I was just talking with Eliza Griswold, who's been in what can only be described as Trump country in Pennsylvania, and despite the lead that Joe Biden has there, she paints a picture where there's a kind of hidden Trump vote and a very enthusiastic Trump vote.

What are you seeing in Wisconsin, and do you have the same sense? Wisconsin is so unpredictable last time around in 2016. The polls suggested that Clinton would win pretty comfortably. This time, the Democratic operation is deep and broad, but there's certainly a huge support for Trump. What are the polls saying now, just so that we have the numbers in front of us? The polls are showing consistently that Biden is a few points ahead. Just a few.

Just a few. There have been some polls that have suggested two points, others. The Marquette poll, which is seen as extremely reliable, shows him about four points ahead. A few other polls have shown him further ahead. So Hillary Clinton was the first Democratic presidential candidate to lose Wisconsin since 1984. What's so different this time? Well, think back, David, to 2016

and what the Clinton campaign did not do in Wisconsin. She lost to Bernie Sanders in April 2016 by 13 points, and yet she and her team inexplicably saw no reason for her to actually go back to Wisconsin and campaign before the election in November. They did not run television ads, in Green Bay or Milwaukee or Madison until the last two weeks of the campaign.

They had a very, very thin organization. What's different this time? Biden has been up with ads since June. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin has been organizing essentially since 2017. And they're focusing on places where Clinton's turnout was much, much lower than Barack Obama.

You know, it's kind of fascinating to compare 2012 when Obama won Wisconsin with 2016 when Trump won. Mitt Romney and Donald Trump got about the same number of votes. Hillary Clinton got 238,000 fewer votes than Obama. Peter, did you talk to any Democratic Party leaders about the real stakes of this race and how close it is in Wisconsin? I spoke with Ben Wickler, who took over a couple of years ago

as the leader of the Wisconsin Democratic Party. He made clear the extent, of the effort that the party has been making, starting with his predecessor, Martha Laney, from a couple of years ago, they have built a really significant organization. In 2016, you'd go into an office, and no one would be there, and someone sitting behind a table

would tell you to pick up a clipboard and bring it back when you're done. In 2018, if you went to volunteer, first you had to choose a team. Those teams are responsible for organizing their neighborhood. So there are all these people around Wisconsin who had turned their houses into these kind of launching points where you'd come in the front door and there would be like some volunteers who would check you in and get your info and give you a hand warmer if it was cold and hand your granola bar. And you go out to turf and knock on the doors and then you come back and there's a checkout process where they bring you back in and feed you and give you some cider and send you up for your next shift. And they had it down to a science. And the neighborhood teams in 2018, they knocked on almost twice as many doors as the presidential campaign had with a ton more money two years earlier.

And can you have a ground game in the middle of a pandemic? Eliza was painting a picture in which Republican activists in Pennsylvania were going around canvassing, doing the usual thing without a mask. And the Biden people were not going around at all. It is going to be fascinating to see whether this Democratic strategy, this Democratic decision, is going to work. The Democrats have decided that they are not canvassing in person. Donald Trump is holding rallies in Wisconsin. Republicans are canvassing door to door. The Trump campaign has had a bus tour with some of his friends and relatives driving around the state.

The Biden campaign has said, no, we are not doing things in person. Now, what is happening is a series of, decisions by individual candidates at the local level, some of whom are actually going out and dropping, as they say, dropping lit, dropping literature. I talked about that with one Democratic state legislator I met, Greta Newbauer. You know, in the past, we would have said, don't do the lip drop, right? Make sure to stop and talk to someone. And so I think there's a combination, right, of understanding that it is more effective to do doors. You want to have those conversations. And so if you can't do that, hopefully what we do is, you know, we

drop somewhat lit, we call them and say, hey, you know, I drop lit at your door. Sorry, I couldn't stay in chat. Wanted to make sure you're safe. But I do think that people are appreciating that. And, you know, it's a demonstration of our values that we're prioritizing their safety over our campaigns. What did you hear from voters in terms of their hesitation about voting and getting their votes counted? You know, I stopped by the clerk's office in Milwaukee and in Madison. When you walk up to the clerk's office in Madison, you'll see two people in bright yellow vests sitting outside waiting to collect absentee ballots when people bring them up

and they look to make sure that the voter has signed the ballot and that there is a witness signature as well. In Madison as well, they're having something called Democracy in the Park. The city has organized in 206 parks election clerks who are there to help voters register and help voters deliver their ballots. When I went to the clerk's office in Milwaukee, I ran into a woman who was determined not only to deliver her ballot,

she was determined to deliver it in person, and she said nothing is going to keep me from voting. Peter Slevin, thank you so much. It was a pleasure. Peter Slevin is a contributing writer based in Chicago. The presidential election, just in case you hadn't noticed, is in a month. This is the New Yorker Radio Hour with more to come.

Silence at times like this can be extremely, extremely problematic, not speaking up. And the temptation for me is to be silent in Tennessee. This is Phil Nordstrom. He's a minister. My pastor, Life Church in Knoxville, also an Uber driver. And that's how we met staff writer Andrew Morrance. technically my thing was a lift, not an Uber, so you do both. Yes, I ride, I drive for both Uber and Lyft as most drivers in Knoxville do. Well, even that has its political valances too.

Absolutely. At Life Church in Knoxville, most of the members vote Republican, and they support the president, which can be very challenging for Pastor Nordstrom, who does not. He and Andrew Morantz have been talking about how this intersection of faith in politics plays out day to day. Sometimes I probably think I chicken out. But, you know, this has been a time where it's been hard to chicken out, for instance. Well, tell me about that. Tell me about what about this moment makes it hard to chicken out or makes that an internal conflict.

George Floyd, when the George Floyd incident happens, that was really important. I thought that we addressed that. And we did. I actually had one of my African-American friends come preach for me kind of the Sunday after that. And he preached a message called. The sermon title is I Can't Breathe. And it was just, it was powerful. It was uncomfortable.

But saying nothing was not an option. Right. Okay. So tell me about some of these, the way these issues play out in the conversations you've and having, when you talk to people, either congregants or not, like, how do these things come up? Yeah. I honestly don't believe that the key to the future of the world is whether Biden or Trump are in office. I really feel like that's the huge mistake that we've made.

And I'm so tired of hearing this is the most important election of your, this, everything is the most important thing. that we've ever heard. And it's so critical. So in terms of my conversations with people, I'll be honest with people in a private conversation, but I'm not going to get up and use the pulpit as a bully pulpit to talk about the kingdoms of this world because the kingdom of our God is it works,

whether you're in communist, you know, Russia. It should work no matter where you are. So I had a conversation with a lady in my church who was, she was just saying something real pro-Trump and about how awesome it is for us as Christians that we have President Trump in office. And then it was like in that moment, in that moment she forgot that I wasn't pro-Trump. And she knew that. And she goes, oh, yeah, I'm sorry, you're more liberal than that. For me, that light conversation, I kind of put a pause at at that point, and I just said, wait a minute.

It's not that I'm more liberal. I'm more conservative than that. To say that Trump, with his relationship with women, is pro-conservative values, that's not liberal. That's conservative. And she listened. She actually just kind of stopped at that point. But one of the strengths I think of our church is it is okay to have that kind of diversity. We're going for diversity of thought, diversity of race, and that's a lot harder than uniformity.

Have there been any times where it does kind of go off the rails ever? I mean, this is obviously a very heated moment, like people may be. So, yeah. So when I had my African-American friend preach for me, I did have one man stand up walk out of the service. He walked out of the service. But then when we posted it on Facebook, he went so far to write underneath the comment, white people matter. And then it was interesting. So then I have a conversation after that with a couple African-American pastor were talking through it.

and I talk about, hey, I had Chris Battle come preach for me, and this is what happened. And this older, wiser African-American pastor says to me, we're not impressed with whatever discomfort you had to experience because you had that speaker. We've been dealing with this all our lives. I can hardly tell that story because it really showed me the privilege that I have

and how just that little discomfort I felt from that nothing compared to what's it like to be pulled over by a police officer and wonder whether you're going to come home that night or whether things are going to be safe or how you're going to be prejudged

on that occasion. So I've had some really powerful experiences through this time. It's been interesting. Right. Well, then and given how powerful that is and given how deeply felt that is, what do you say to the guy who walked out? How do you keep a pastoral relationship with that person? Because that sounds pretty messed up to me.

In his particular case, it would have done me no good to try to have a rational conversation. This is going to sound terrible for a pastor to say, but my honest feeling was, don't let the door hit you where the good Lord split you, you know. But honestly, honestly, he's come back. his brother quit our church at the beginning of COVID because we required masks. He's now back. They're back. But there's just a level of that that you just sort of put up with. But I will say this.

I actually have their ear and they're listening to me. And I think I have an opportunity to influence those kind of guys. And so I count that as a real privilege, actually. Have you had any anecdotal experiences of people who you have seen change one way or the other for him or against him? Boy, I feel like a failure here. I honestly don't know that I've changed anybody's mind. That's a horrible thing to say. But I do think that I attract other people that love the Bible, love Jesus,

but they don't get the Trump thing. And those folks are starting to say, wow, there's a safe place for us here. And I don't know that evangelicals feel that there's a safe place to go. Have you heard other people around you talking about, you know, writing in a protest vote or, you know, voting for a third party? Or is that something that people in your neck of the woods are talking about? Yes. I think that there would be, I think there'll be a group from our church that will vote for Biden. and then there'll be another group that will just write in a name of someone, someone else, just kind of a protest vote.

I'm not so sure that Trump will win this time. I mean, and that's going out on a limb for me. I think that there has been an erosion, even if I haven't seen it as much in my church, I think that there has been, I mean, I think we've got to say something. about Jerry Falwell and the ridiculous alliance that was there between him and Trump. And we should have seen the handwriting on the wall when he's encouraging his students to take shooting lessons so that they can get rid of those Muslims, you know, if they come in to do school.

It's unbelievably non-Jesus. I'm sorry. I'm sorry. I'm fired up. No. No, go for it. I mean, yeah, have you had any sort of recent conversations along these lines? Interesting, you asked.

I just got a inbox yesterday. It was a lady in my church sent me a Facebook post quoting Jim Caviesel who played Jesus in the Passion of the Christ. And Caviesel was saying that Christian leaders, there are people of the, of the, of the faith, in your faith, Christian leaders, are capitulating to their mayors and to their governors, and they are becoming lukewarm Christians. And it was warning. It was warning against these kind of leaders. So like COVID is revealing who's weak and who's strong.

Well, in that scenario, I'm the weak one. And what is making someone like that send that to you? Is it that you've spoken out against Trump? Is it that you are iconoclastic? Or what are they thinking? Sure, they talk to me about stuff on Facebook inbox or I'll post things on Facebook. I'll probably even be a little more courageous on Facebook because I am a private citizen. So, yeah, they see me marching at rallies.

But the rallies that I'm going to march in, I'm really trying to march with people that are lifting up Jesus through all this. My sign is going to say, let justice roll down like a river and righteousness like a mighty stream because that's, to me, the rationale. We give Abraham Lincoln credit for saying a house divided against itself cannot stand. He's quoting Jesus. Jesus said a house divided against itself cannot stand. You asked me the question about my inbox. I'm a little embarrassed about that.

we ought to be having these conversations a little bit more openly in the lobby and all of those kinds of places. But the divisions are really strong right now. And those are walls that we're, I'm committed to working to help break down. Andrew Moran speaking with Pastor Phil Nordstrom of Life Church in Knoxville, Tennessee. I'm David Remnick, and that's our show for today. Thanks for joining us. See you next time. The New Yorker Radio Hour is a co-execkel. production of WNYC Studios and The New Yorker. Our theme music was composed and performed by Merrill Garbus of Tune Yards,

with additional music by Alexis Quadrado. This episode was produced by Alex Barron, Emily Boutin, Ave Carrillo, Riannon-N-Corbi, Cala Leah, David Krasnow, Gauphin and Putuguele, Louis Mitchell, Michelle Moses, and Stephen Valentino, with help from Alison McAdam, Monfei Chen, and Emily Mann. The New Yorker Radio Hour is supported in part by the Cherina Endowment Fund. Thank you.