The New Yorker Radio Hour - Why We Underestimated COVID-19, and DJ D-Nice’s Club Quarantine

Episode Date: April 3, 2020

Despite the warnings of politicians and health-care professionals, many have failed to treat the coronavirus pandemic as a serious threat: the spring breakers on beaches, the crowds in city parks. Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning expert on human behavior, speaks with Maria Konnikova about why the threat posed by COVID-19 defies intuitive comprehension. “There should be clear guidelines and clear instructions. We all ought to know whether we should open our Amazon packages outside the door or bring them in,” Kahneman said. “It’s not a decision individuals should consider making on the basis of what they know, because they don’t know enough to make it.” Plus: the story of a nine-hour virtual party that attracted hundreds of thousands of attendees—including Rihanna, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, and Drake. New Yorker Radio Hour listeners, we want to hear from you.  We have a few questions about the show and how you listen to it. The survey takes about twenty minutes, and your feedback will help us make our podcast better.  Take the survey here.

This is The New Yorker Radio Hour, a co-production of WNYC Studios and The New Yorker. Welcome to The New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm David Remnick. Outside of emergency rooms, it seems like many of us fail to understand this pandemic in real time, to understand the seriousness of it, the appalling fatality. Now, I'm not talking about the cynical disinformation that was spread by the president and his media allies. What I mean here is the spring breakers who seem so oblivious to what was going on and continued partying on beaches. I'm talking about the way that there were crowded city parks and crowded restaurants and bars, even as the death toll began to soar. Even elected officials, leaders at all levels of government, struggled to respond to the virus in a way that reflected

just how serious the problem actually was and is. How and why people misunderstand and make mistakes is the life's work of Daniel Conneman, a scholar whose work revolutionized, the field of cognitive psychology. He's a winner of the Nobel Prize and the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, a bestseller about human behavior. Maria Konnikova, who's written for The New Yorker about psychology and many other subjects, spoke to Daniel Kahneman last week. This is an exponential event.

That is, we see things doubling every two days, every three days, every four days. And people don't, and certainly including myself, don't seem to be able to think straight about exponential growth. So I knew that there were 100 cases in France, and I was about to fly to France. I also knew that epidemics are exponential. I didn't even consider the fact that if the rate of infections doubles every three days, then in a month it will be increased by a factor of 1,000.

And what we see today are infections that occurred two or three weeks ago. And the deaths that today are people who got infected four, five weeks ago. All of this is, I think, sort of beyond intuitive human comprehension. And that's interesting, that we're in a situation that we're simply not equipped to understand. So I'm interested in how then people can make decisions and can can follow advice both from the personal level like you and I, but also from the highest levels. If even someone like you is unable to grasp the nature of exponential growth

and what it might mean, how do leaders use all of this information to make decisions? How do they think through it? How do they figure out, okay, well, what is the best way forward? Well, people tend to be focused, and obviously that was true of President Trump as well. They tend to be focused on the number of casualties or cases of death today. And this is something that you want to warn people against. Don't look at what is happening today. You need to extrapolate into the future.

In terms of people obeying instructions, you don't need many numbers. I mean, I think that if the president said, you know, looking very serious, this is a very serious problem, and we're anticipating many casualties, people will obey, people would pay attention. It's not even a matter of people making good decisions. It's a matter of getting people to behave in a particular way, in a way that's appropriate to a state of fear when they're not actually experiencing fear. And on the individual level, is there anything that we can try to do on an individual level psychologically to be better equipped to make these choices? I think that this is not individual decision making. That's really the theme of the conversation from my point of view. This is not individual decision making.

Individuals should make the smallest possible number of choices because they're not equipped to do it. There should be clear guidelines and clear instructions. We all ought to know whether we should open our Amazon packages outside the door or bring them in. It's not a decision that individuals should consider making on the basis of what they know, because they don't know enough to make it. Has your thinking about risk perception, has this situation actually affected it at all? Well, you know, I'm surprised by myself in a way, by my inability to grasp what is going on, by my inability to be worried at the appropriate level.

You know, you can think of every time someone decides to go to the park, something like that as kind of a gambling decision, almost, gambling with you. your own health, gambling with the health of others. And I think a lot of the work you've done has revolved around how we evaluate the risks, the costs, the benefits of different gambles in that sense. How do we make those evaluations? How do we think through that type of calculus when we make decisions? There is one difficulty clearly, which is that if you view every time that you go to

the supermarket as a gamble, you're not doing it quite right. I mean, it's a gamble in the same sense as wearing and not wearing seatbelts is a gamble. It's a cumulative gamble. And the risk for any one behavior is very, very slight. It's adopting a pattern of behaviors that on the whole for many people is going to be safer. And here, the main cue that we're getting, I think, is the behavior of other people. I mean, I am very struck by the change in the behavior of people in the supermarket over the last few days. And that signal that other people are aware of what is happening, that is the main way, I think, that risk get communicated.

That's really interesting. So you're talking a lot about kind of the norms of behavior. you know, we don't have a norm of wearing masks. We don't have kind of a norm of obeying necessarily kind of those stricter things coming from the top. Do you think that it's, we might need a change when it comes to that? Well, it's a difficult question. Nobody is going to change the culture. The culture is what it is.

But I'll give you an example. I don't watch much television, but I see pictures of the daily conference calls of the president. If they were distancing there, that would send a signal. When you see a lot of people, you know, within the wrong distance of each other and clearly not taking the kind of precautions that they would like everybody else to take, that sends a very strong signal and not a good one. So that kind of communication is more important than any verbal communication. And we need the appropriate emotional melody because when the president communicates that he really thinks that a lot of this stuff has been exaggerated.

The damage that this does is really huge. Did you end up taking your trip to France or did you not go? You know, I hesitated to the last minute, and then I decided, no, I'd better not take that trip. But even when I made the decision, I wasn't thinking straight. But actually, I had the tools to think much more precisely about it. I didn't use those tools. Can you elaborate a little bit? What were the tools that you had but that you didn't use?

The tools would be to try to think what it means that, a pandemic is spreading. And I completely failed to see that, although if I had tried to think straight, if I had tried to write my thoughts about it, just to think carefully, I would probably have figured it out, but I wasn't doing this.

Because the number of death at that time was small. It didn't look very worrying. And the idea that this is exactly what a, pandemic looks like. I could have known, lots of people could have known, obviously, whose actions were much more important than my decision of whether or not to go to Paris. A lot of preparations that should have been taken were not. Are you, I don't want this to come off wrong, but are you optimistic? Are you pessimistic? What is your kind of, what is your feeling about our ability to get through this?

You know, I mean, if you take a longer view, then of course you have to be optimistic. You know, I'm pretty sure there'll be some cure, there'll be a vaccine. And, you know, even without a cure and without a vaccine in 1918, so, you know, millions of people died, but society survived. For all people like me, the prospects are not good. I see very little reason for optimism. I mean, you know, at the best, I would say, for the older among us, you know, this is pretty much a life sentence of incarceration at home or a very long-term sentence. This is going to change the rest of our life. So for society, I'm definitely optimistic.

You know, there's no question, I think. This is not an existential danger. We'll come out of it. Society will come out of it. The economy will come out of it. It could take several years. But ultimately, you know, life will go on. Daniel Conneman is Professor Emeritus at Princeton,

and he's the author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, and Other Books. Maria Konnikova is the author of The Confidence Game and The Fourth Coming, The Biggest Bluff, How I Learn to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win. This is the New Yorker Radio Hour. More to Come. This is the New Yorker Radio Hour. I'm David Remnick. Staying indoors has been.

a test for all of us. But a family with new twin infants and a three-year-old daughter, well, you can imagine the challenges. Staff writer Jelani Cobb found something that for at least a few moments took his mind off of the invisible threat surrounding all of us, and it was a virtual party, a live stream that lasted for nine hours. I've been quarantined at home for about three weeks, like millions of other people, and only leaving for essential goods and services. I don't think very many people define dancing and playing music as an essential good or service, but Derek Jones, professionally known as DJ D. Nice, absolutely does. About three weeks ago, he started an Instagram live feed to play music for friends and family,

And within a few days, it'd gone from a couple hundred people to a few thousand people. And before the week was out, more than a hundred thousand people listening in. And it covered the spectrum of celebrity and politics, people like Rihanna and Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. Even Michelle Obama stopped in for a little while. And so, you know, 10 minutes in, I was not thinking about the coronavirus anymore. And I was not thinking about not being able to leave my house. you know, anymore. And I was just caught up in the vibe of the music he was playing.

The first time I ever heard of De Nice was when, you know, he was part of this group with KRS1, which is really one of the foundational groups of what's considered the golden era of hip-hop. I wanted to talk to him about his life and his career. But first I wanted to ask him about how that nine-hour set had come about and what he'd been thinking before he started it. I woke up that morning and I promise you, I felt like it was going to be a very nice set. I had 20,000 people in there and I kept seeing like these messages like, my gosh, D.E. Nice had so many people in here. Like the only person that's missing is like in Obama when I was like, wow, what if I can like surprise the people that are in here with like in Obama?

Like that would be awesome. But I did make some calls. I did. I was like, you know, I was. I called like one of the Obama's assistants, and we were just talking about it. You know, I just said, do you think that they would like, you know, the energy was almost like, nah, that's not going to happen. So that was an actual invitation, kind of a VIP invitation. I did call. I was calling everyone. I was like, listen, I'm trying to get somebody in there that could make people feel really good.

Had you ever done a nine-hour set before that? No. No, never. Never. What made you keep going, especially because you had to keep logging off every hour and logging back on. What made you keep going for that long? The spirit of music, you know, like I didn't even realize it was nine hours. I only played one song twice.

It was because Rihanna popped in and I played Burnaboy earlier. I know that's like her favorite song. There's so much beautiful music out there that was made. And to have the ability to play this. and never repeat a song. I was just excited about that alone. Like, it was like this high that I was feeling based on I can play everything. Oh, my gosh.

So, I was kind of wonder about, which is, what's with the hats? It literally started, like, I went to use the, I was wearing a hat because whenever I DJ, I always have a hat on. So when I had my hat on, I went to use a restroom and I took the hat off because it was hot, you know? And, like, I was like a chance to change my hat off, get a little hat break. And then when I returned, I grabbed the wrong hat and I put it on. I was like, looking at what people were writing, like, yo, hat change. Right. All right.

It's about to get hot in here. And I was like, oh, hat change. Oh, okay. And then I ran into the room. I cleared off my kitchen counter and just laid out all my, like, some of my hats. Yeah. And then like every like 30 minutes, I would just change the hat, like just to change up the swag a little bit. Because it was funny because the hat's almost seem.

like they were like signifying different mood changes. Like, oh, okay, we're about to get a different set now. You know, he's going with this hat. That's exactly what was happening. So I think it would be good to just kind of start from the early part of your career. I know you've talked a lot about club quarantine. I was interested in talking a little bit about the arc of your career before that. And so for people who are not familiar with hip hop in the late 80s and 90s,

could you talk a little bit about that time and, you know, how you met KRS, and Scott LaRock and came to be connected to Boogie Down Productions? So I started in the music industry in 1986 as a part of, you know, an iconic, or at least in my eyes, I believe we're iconic, but an iconic rapper called Boogie Down Productions. My cousin had, he worked at the men's shelter in the Bronx at the time. And then he introduced me to DJ Scott LaRocke, who happened to be a social worker there. And I was roughly around 15 years old. Anyway, he introduced me to Karras I, the lead rapper of our group, who happened to live in the shelter.

And, you know, we were, you know, at the time, we were tight. You know, we just started making the music. Yeah, da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-a. Yeah, got la rock, you know your rule hip-hop, eh. Yes, de nice you know your rule hip-hop, eh. Yes, yes, melody, you know your rule hip-hop, eh. And unfortunately, Scott, you know, he passed pretty early. And I ended up becoming the DJ of the group.

We made four consecutive gold albums and then I did two solo albums. And after that, I, you know, after my second album, I ended up just kind of fell back a bit for nearly a decade. I started a creative services agency with a couple of buddies, did that for a number of years, and then left and started my own called United Camps. And I developed websites for everyone from Alicia Keys to Annie Linux, was doing online marketing for Reebok. And that's how I resurfaced to the entertainment industry. And then I started to go out to parties.

And one particular party is what changed my life. I went to a place called Table 50 in New York City. It's kind of like early 2000s. And I went to see Q-Tip and Mark Ronson. They were DJing together. And they had a Thursday night residency for around a year or two. What kind of stuff were they playing? Blondie.

I really enjoyed it. And I wanted to participate in it. And I wanted to participate so badly that I had. ended up giving up my web development company to pursue a career in DJ. Wow. And it's a spiritual thing. Can I jump in a really? I want to ask you something about that actually, which is that, you know, on Saturday

night, you know, and that's set where, you know, things first kind of blew through the ceiling. And, you know, at one point you start playing, you're spinning some salsa. You were saying this is like, shout out to the Bronx. And I wondered, like, you know, playing dance hall, playing, you know, Latin music, playing 80s, R&B, some 70s R&B. Like, was that about growing up in the Bronx? Was that kind of the music that you were hearing around in the communities that you were living in?

Well, like my formative years, I lived in the Bronx, but really I grew up in Harlem. And music was always around me. You know, like back in a day, people were walking around in the streets playing with the boomboxes, you know, like playing music loudly. You know, so like every song,

that I play, and this is no lie, it's like there's always a picture that's painted in my head, in my mind where if I play a song, Saturday Love, Alexander O'Neill, what I think about is 15-year-old me or 14-year-old me at the time walking through Central Park, a walk-a-thon, and I remember this young girl, like, she was like my age, that every time I play that record, I still wonder, like, you know, I wonder whatever happened. Like, you know what I mean? So I was actually in the crowd the night when you DJed the Obama's Farewell Party. There's a story that I don't know if it's true or not, that Naomi Campbell gave you some artistic advice that night that influenced how you played.

Oh, no, it's true. We're in the White House. And I was playing the typical corporate set of like safe music, Michael Jackson, Madonna. blah, blah, blah. And Naomi and my other friend Jaha came over to me, and they were both like, yo, you know, like you're not playing like yourself, like be you. But I looked at them and I don't know,

I let my ego go. That was the first thing because the ego was like, what do you mean? I'm watching everyone dancing because you two aren't having a good time. You know, don't really bother me with that. But what they said was actually right. And I went to, the absolute hardest rap song that I could think of, like, immediately, just to see if this was going to work.

And the first song I played was MOP's Annie. Right. And literally, the floor was vibrating. Like, people were going nuts. But how, wasn't it crazy? It was amazing. We were a swag servant in the White House. Right.

You said that you could see, like, people are dancing. You can kind of, like, get feedback from that. But for club quarantine, you can't do that. How was that, how do you navigate that? Like, if you're kind of DJing blind. I didn't know if you were dancing in your living room or not. I didn't know if you were feeling the music. You know, like, I didn't know if it was time to switch it.

That set was really all about me, trying to figure out something to do. Like, the thing that I, you know, I love the most are my kids. And, you know, my kids are, my oldest is in law school. So she's on the East Coast, my daughter. My youngest daughter is in Michigan with mom. So since I traveled a lot, I didn't want to go to Michigan because I wasn't sure what was going on. You know, so I just stayed here in L.A. So, you know, having two of the most important, you know, things removed from me immediately,

which is family and my love of DJN, I was literally going stir crazy. You know, how is the spread of the coronavirus and the quarantine changed your life personally and maybe your philosophy about life? Well, I will say this. You know, I'm a single man that enjoyed traveling a world, DJ, and I'm sure I would literally get on a plane, fly to New York for one gig. The very next morning, fly to Trinidad for a gig. Then the very next morning, fly to Los Angeles for a gig. And all of that was great. But when I was sitting here alone and there's no one here, I can tell you, that was the loneliest feeling that I felt in a very long time.

It just made me respect being around my family more and around my friends and just loved ones, you know, and really appreciate the times that I've spent with them. And being, like, isolated is it can be a very lonely feeling. And, you know, I don't think anyone should feel like that. You know, so as much love that people are receiving and that they feel because I'm playing music, I always try to make sure that they know that that love is equally felt on this end. Because if I weren't playing music for nine hours, I wouldn't, I probably wouldn't be as happy as I am now. You know, like, because I'm able to play music for people and kind of affect their mood,

just because I'm playing music is very humbling. feeling and have nothing but gratitude. You know, that's fascinating because everything that's been written and including my own writing about it, we've all focused on what we got out of this. And I think this is

the first time, you know, I've thought about what you were getting out of it on the other side of it. So, thank you. Appreciate you sharing that. Thanks. All right, brother. You take care. Take care. Thank you for rocking with me. That was so dope. Quick in and out. I'm back here. next Saturday. Saturday nights. That's really what I want to do that. Saturday nights. Shout out to

my man. Tech, I see you. Oh my gosh. Callie, I see you. After I see you. Karen, I see you. Man, I'm out of here. I'm out of here. Lindsay, I see you. Thank you for everything. Peace, everybody. DJ D. Nice. You can find out about his next live stream at New Yorker.com or by following him on Instagram at D. Nice. He spoke to the New Yorkers, July. I'm David Remnick, and I want to thank you again for listening, and maybe you even had a quick dance in the kitchen. Thanks to Felipe Duarci for permission to use his music in this week's episode. We'll be back next week, and we will be back with more of the New Yorker Radio Hour.

The New Yorker Radio Hour is a co-production of WNYC Studios and The New Yorker. Our theme music was composed and performed by Merrill Garbus of Tune Yards, with additional music by Alexis Quadrado. This episode was produced by Alex Barron, Emily Boutin, Ave Cario, Riannon Corby, Calalia, David Krasnow, Gauphin and Putuguello, Louis Mitchell, Michelle Moses, and Stephen Valentino, with help from Alison McAdam, Morgan Flannery, Monfei Chen, and Emily Mann. The New Yorker Radio Hour is supported in part by the Cherina Endowment Fund.