The President's Daily Brief - April 12th, 2024: The Iranian Threat, Russia’s Authoritarian Lurch, & Democracy on the Ropes

Episode Date: April 12, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: American officials are cautioning of a possible attack on Israeli assets by Iran or its affiliates, and that the U.S. may play a role in Israel's defense. We’ll then move to Russia, where a shift towards authoritarianism is marked by the Kremlin's aggressive re-nationalization of key industries, targeting companies linked to nations it now considers hostile. The public's dismay grows louder in Russia as the state remains indifferent to the plight of citizens affected by floods, further highlighting the neglect of the nation's failing infrastructure. In the Back of the Brief, we explore the concerning trends in global democracy as a new poll indicates a significant decline in the public's trust in democratic institutions. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com.   Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.   Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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PDB. It's Friday, 12 April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world's stage. Let's get briefed. We'll start things all. in the Middle East, where American officials are warning that an attack on Israeli assets by Iran or its proxies could be imminent, and that the U.S. might intervene to help Israel defend itself if attacked. Wait, might. But I thought President Biden said that America's defense for Israel against Iran would be ironclad. Later in the show, we'll take a look at a pair of stories from Russia, which appears to be backsliding into authoritarianism. Now, to be fair, backsliding, would imply that Putin hasn't already consigned Russia to full-on authoritarianism.

Anyway, the Kremlin is going on a renationalization spree, seizing key industries and assets from companies with ties to unfriendly countries. It's the Kremlin, seizing assets and nationalizing companies since late 1917. Plus, some Russian citizens are outraged, as the government fails to respond to flooding caused in part by the country's crumbling infrastructure. And in today's back of the brief, democracy appears to be on the ropes with a new survey showing that people's faith in democratic institutions is waning. So it looks like the disinformation and propaganda campaigns being waged by China and Russia to discredit and destabilize democracy as an institution,

well, it looks like they're working. But first, today's PDB spotlight. The fallout from an Israeli air strike in Syria that took out several high-ranking members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, continues. The incident is now creating a high-stakes high-wire act that could lead to broader regional conflict. But first, we've got the ongoing war of words, with Iran and Israel continuing to trade threats in the aftermath of the strike, which killed seven senior military officials, including two generals from Iran's IRGC. Iran's Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hamini warned this week that Israel, quote, must be punished and will be punished for the April 1st attack, days after one of his advisors said that Israeli embassies are no

longer safe. Israeli foreign minister Israel Katz answered the threat on social media, warning that, quote, if Iran attacks from its territory, Israel will respond and attack Iran, end quote. Now, saber-rattling aside, U.S. intelligence reports, are saying that an attack from Iran is no longer a matter of if, but of when and how. How Israel and the U.S. respond to that attack? Well, it will largely depend on how it ultimately plays out. And the biggest question, of course, is whether Iran is going to directly strike Israel or allow a proxy group like Asbalah to carry out the attack, or perhaps a little of both. While the Iranians have been keen on avoiding direct confrontation with Israel in the past,

things might be different this time around because of the high-profile nature of the strike in Syria. According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. defense officials are warning that Iran could use its own military forces to demonstrate a forceful response. However, Iran still seems hesitant to go full war. According to a report from Reuters citing Iranian sources, the Islamic nation has signaled to Washington that while it fully intends to respond to Israel's attack, it plans on doing so in a way that is controlled and non-escalatory. We could see a limited drone or missile attack, similar to what we saw in the wake of the U.S. strike that killed Qasem Soleimani back in 2020. Whatever form the Iranian attack ultimately takes,

the U.S. and Israel are apparently in preparation mode. General Eric Carilla, the commander of the United States Army's Central Command, traveled to Israel yesterday and met Israeli Defense Minister Yov-Galand and senior Israel defense forces officials to coordinate a response to the anticipated Iranian attack. While the Middle East has always been one of the most complex, divisive, and unstable regions on the planet, the current situation, thanks to the destabilizing efforts of the Iranian regime, is possibly the closest we've been in modern times to an all-out regional conflict. The potential limiting factor here is that Iran is not well-pensate.

positioned to engage in a direct war with Israel. And the Mullahs, well, they're not keen to step into the chaos of a direct confrontation if it means potentially losing and losing control of their regime. While the Biden administration has been squishy of late on their support of Israel regarding the Gaza conflict, and as a direct result of pandering to their progressive voters, they would have no option but to support Israel in the event that it is directly attacked by Iran. Biden has said as much. calling U.S. support and defense of Israel in such an event ironclad. Now, the Iranian regime busy trying to read the mixed messages from the White House

over U.S. support in Gaza and potential U.S. support in the event of Iran attacking Israel, will likely err on the side of caution, given what the Mullahs really care about, is maintaining power. All this to say that an attack against Israel will likely be carried out by one of Iran's proxies. After all, it's why they've built. Hamas and Hezbollah and others. They can work towards their goal, the destruction of Israel, without being, at least on the surface, directly involved. All right, coming up next, a wave of nationalization sweeps through Russia as the Kremlin takes control of vital industries

and assets. And Russian citizens are voicing their frustration at the government's failure to properly respond to massive floods and deteriorating infrastructure. Stand by, for Putin to blame the U.S. in the West for Russia's crumbling roads and bridges and tunnels and dams. I'll be right back. Welcome back. Let's turn now to Russia, where the regime of Vladimir Putin is flexing their authoritarian muscle against private industry. While the war against Ukraine rages on, there's been a recent flurry of nationalizations in Russia against both domestic and foreign-owned companies. The takeovers have covered everything from metal, plants, agricultural businesses, and food firms, particularly in the industrial hub of Funchelyabinsk in the

Ural Mountains, according to a report from the Moscow Times. Since the invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, Russian authorities have targeted some 55 companies for compulsory state takeover, totaling nearly $11 billion worth of strategic assets. Now, analysts have long said the seized assets from these takeovers are likely finding their way into the hands of Putin regime loyalists. What? Accusations of corruption? In Putin's Russia? Who knew?

Who knew there was gambling going on at Ricks? The most recent wave has come over the last two weeks, as the regime set their sights on the industries of the Ural Mountains region. At the end of March, officials announced the state had taken over control of the most famous pasta brand in Russia called Makva, as well as the country's largest. winemaker, the Aryan Group, which are both based in the area. As of Thursday, the BBC reported that Putin had begun formally transferring the Aryan Group to Russian state ownership. Those nationalizations follow the takeover in February of the Chellabinsk region's electrometallurgical plant, which accounts

for roughly 80% of Russia's ferro alloys, a critical component in the steelmaking process. The Putin regime has justified their asset grabs by claiming that these businesses were either engaged in unlawful privatization, under foreign control, or in breach of the country's anti-corruption laws, or they weren't kicking back enough jack to Putin's Cayman accounts. Analysts, however, say it has more to do with the regime being cut off from the gravy train of Western assets since the war began. Nicholas Trickett, a senior analyst at S&P, told the Moscow Times, quote, where once the state was raiding foreign investors' pockets, now it's open season domestically. Trickett added that the nationalizations are creating, quote, a new interest

group of winners who are fully invested in the war's continuation, end quote. As I mentioned, Russia's aggressive authoritarian behavior is not limited to their domestic industries. What? Are we saying that communism doesn't respect boundaries? Again, shocking. The Dutch-registered agricultural firm AgroTerra Group, which is one of the top 20 largest owners of agricultural land in Russia, was also recently targeted by the Putin regime, having their assets seized by the Kremlin on Monday. This is reportedly part of Putin's campaign against, quote, unfriendly countries. Now, since the start of the war, Putin has targeted foreign-owned assets in retaliation for sanctions that have been slapped on Russia. As a reminder, in April of

In 20203, Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to take over real estate, securities, property rights, and other assets from foreign companies that they deem to be linked to unfriendly states. Analysts have warned that the behavior poses global risks to the agricultural sector, as well as the international supply chain, while further inflaming tensions with the West. Now, I suspect that Putin, I don't know, based on his behavior the past couple decades, isn't concerned about inflaming tensions with the West. Perhaps it would be worth the U.S. in the West, I'm just spitballing here, considering slapping meaningful sanctions on the Russian energy industry. It's the only revenue stream that Putin cares about at the end of the day. If we want to bring

the war against Ukraine to an end in the foreseeable future, maybe the West should get serious about strangling Russia's oil and gas revenues. Now, of course, the problem with that idea is that it would have a knock-on effect, increasing the price of gas at the pump. And honestly, who needs that during an election year? All right, sticking with Russia's domestic troubles, outrage is building against the Putin regime in the wake of a massive flood that has devastated dozens of towns, villages, and cities in southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan. As a reminder, last Friday, the Euro River, which is Europe's third longest river, began rapidly swelling and quickly overtook a dam in the city of Orsk, killing at least five people. The river had risen to

nearly double the level the dam was designed to handle before it burst, submerging large swaths of the city as well as communities on Kazakhstan side of the border, and that's according to a CNN report. A second portion of the dam collapsed on Monday, worsening an already difficult situation. Officials said this week that some 13,000 private houses and about 15,000 households remain completely under water. The incident put a spotlight on Russia's failing infrastructure, sparking outrage among community members, given that the dam was only built in 2010. Even with the rising water levels, the critical failure reportedly occurred because the dam's hydraulic structure was not properly maintained. Officials have since launched a criminal investigation into the matter. Well, that should

sort it out. By Monday, more than 100 Russian citizens, 100, took to the streets to voice their anger at the Kremlin, chanting, quote, shame on you and Putin help. They've criticized the government's slow response and the paltry compensation they're reportedly offering to locals who lost their homes. In the immediate aftermath, Russia declared an emergency and tens of thousands of residents have since been evacuated, albeit slowly, from areas affected by the floodwaters. Putin also dispatched Russia's emergencies minister. They've got a minister for emergencies to visit the area. On his tour, of the damage, the minister further angered locals by chastising them for ignoring a supposed order to evacuate a week prior. The problem, however, is that Russian state media said the evacuation

order wasn't issued until April 5th, and that, of course, is the day of the disaster. To make matters worse, officials fear of the crisis will only deepen over the coming weeks due to the sheer volume of water. The river reportedly swelled due to a massive snow melt during unseasonally warm temperatures in the region. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov described the mood in the community as, quote, very, very tense on Wednesday, adding that, quote, the water is continuing to rise, large amounts of water are coming to new regions, end quote. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, a concerning survey reveals a crisis of confidence in democratic institutions. Apparently, the respondents to the survey have no idea what the alternatives look like.

I'll be right back. In today's back of the brief, a troubling new survey shows that voters in many countries around the world are suffering a crisis of faith when it comes to democratic institutions. This study is entitled The Perceptions of Democracy's Survey and was conducted by the International Institute of Democracy and Electoral Assistance or Idea and Who Doesn't Love a Good acronym, an organization of 35 member states whose goal is to promote democracy worldwide. Well, the group polled around 1,500 people in 19 Democratic countries, representing around a third of the world's population. Those countries include three of the world's largest democracies, Brazil, India, and the United

States. And wait, Brazil is still a democracy. So let's take a look at some of these findings. The top line is that in 17 of the 19 countries polled, fewer than half of the people are satisfied with their governments, and in only four countries, do a majority feel that they're doing better economically than their parents? There was also a significant amount of skepticism in each country about whether recent elections were free and fair. That skepticism was most prominent among low-income communities and self-identified minority groups. The outlook

doesn't get much better when it comes to people's views of their judicial systems. In 18 of the 19 countries. Fewer than half of the people believe that the courts always or often provide access to justice. It found that Iraqis actually have more faith in access to justice than Americans. Now, probably the most disturbing finding is that voters in many of the countries surveyed would actually prefer their country be less democratic. According to the study in eight nations, a majority of people have favorable views of, quote, a strong leader who doesn't have to bother with parliament or elections, end quote. There is one bright spot, though, and that's when it comes to freedom of speech. In most of the countries surveyed, a majority of voters said that they usually, or

always, have the freedom to say what they think publicly. Now, we've talked about the disinformation and propaganda campaigns being waged by China and Russia in the past here on the PDB, and how they utilize social media in particular to target, attack, and discredit. the notion of democracy and democratic institutions. Well, their efforts are paying off. Now, whether they're working to divide the population, create fear or dissatisfaction with our institutions, or so doubt about the fairness of elections, they're finding populations, both in the U.S. and throughout the West, willing to bite on whatever bait they toss out. The only real defense against hostile efforts to influence and control hearts and minds

is frankly a curious, skeptical, and questioning public. The point is, it's down to individual responsibility. You have to question what you read and hear. You have to ask what's the actual source. Is it true or is it crap? Don't just take the bait. Look, I've spent the majority of my years in difficult and challenging environments overseas.

I've seen the alternatives to democracy and they consistently pale and fail in comparison. One of the truly amazing leaders of modern times and someone who, Communists, fascists and despots alike, all despised Winston Churchill, said it best. Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, 12 April. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. I'm Mike Baker.

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