The President's Daily Brief - April 18th, 2024: Israel’s Decision, Russia’s Advance, & Dubai’s ‘Rain Bomb’

Episode Date: April 18, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Israel has reportedly made its decision to respond to Iran's significant missile assault, amid a divided public opinion on the response. As the world watches the Middle East, we shift focus to Eastern Europe to assess Russia's grinding offensive in Ukraine, analyzing shifting front lines and Russian advances. Get the details on the impeachment proceedings against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, which began in the US Senate. In today’s Back of the Brief, we explore the cause behind Dubai's "rain bomb" floods. Is it merely an act of nature, or could "cloud seeding" be the culprit? To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Don't pass go and own it all. Only at Yamava, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Details at yamava.com must be 21-20. Please gamble responsibly. Monopoly is a trademark of Hasbro. Hasbro is not a sponsor of this promotion. It's Thursday, 18 April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker,

your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. It looks like Israel has reached a decision on a potential retaliatory action following Iran's drone and missile attack on Saturday night. And as if the situation isn't complex enough already, a recent poll of Israelis indicates a split in public opinion on whether or not to retaliate. We're bringing you the latest updates. Later in the show, with much of the focus on the Middle East, we shift our lens to Eastern Europe, where Russia's grinding offensive in Ukraine presses on. We'll provide a summary of the current battlefield realities, who's advancing, whether front lines have shifted, and any signs of Russian progression. Plus, we'll have the details of the impeachment trial of DHS Secretary

Alejandro Mayorkas, which kicked off in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday. There's nothing like a good old fashion impeachment to fire up the folks on Capitol Hill. In today's back of the brief, parts of Dubai are underwater today after the city experienced an unprecedented rain bomb this week. While the Emirate claims the downpours are an act of God, some suspect the massive storm may have something to do with the practice of cloud seeding. God, meanwhile, was not available for comment. But first, today's PDB spotlight. As world leaders continue their efforts to convince Israel to show restraint in responding to Iran's drone and missile attack, it appears that the Jewish state has already made its decision.

After meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog, British Foreign Minister David Cameron told reporters that it's apparent to him that Israel will retaliate. Cameron said to reporters, quote, It's clear the Israelis are making a decision to act. We hope they do so in a way that does as little. to escalate this as possible, adding that the response should be, quote, smart as well as tough. I wonder if you have to go to foreign minister's school to be able to come up with comments like that. There is still no indication whether Israel plans on going big in their response or carrying out a more limited operation.

Cameron's statement tracks with a recent report in the Jerusalem Post, which states that the IDF has decided on the type, but not the timing of a counter-strike. on Iran, which is likely to depend on a number of variables. The news comes as Iran's president issued his most dire warning against Israel to date. Speaking at an annual army parade in Tehran, President Abraham Reisy said that the tiniest invasion by Israel would bring a, quote, massive and harsh response. We've been largely focused on the big picture here on the PDB, how officials of the government have been responding to this weekend's attacks. But I want to drill down a bit, as some new data is showing surprising sentiments among the Israeli people. According to a new poll published this week by Hebrew University in Jerusalem, Israelis are evenly split on whether their country

should respond. According to the survey, a little more than half, 52%, which, according to my math, is a little more than half, believe it would be better not to respond to the attacks in order to end the current round of conflict. By comparison, 48% answered, that Israel should respond, even if it means that the current conflict would be extended. That opposition to responding to the attack actually grows to 74% if the Israeli counterattack would undermine the security alliance between the U.S., the United Kingdom, France, and moderate Arab countries. Now, I know I'm throwing a lot of numbers at you, but there's one more interesting data point that I think is worth mentioning. Of the 48% of Israelis who support a military response, only 25%

support an operation inside Iranian territory. Of course, ultimately, nations are not governed by Poles, I mean, possibly except for the U.S. Prime Minister Netanyahu made it clear yesterday that he won't be swayed by the pleas of Western diplomats like David Cameron. Following Wednesday's meeting with the U.K. foreign minister, Netanyahu told reporters, quote, we will make our own decisions ourselves. The state of Israel will do whatever is necessary to defend itself, end quote. All right, coming up next, we zero in on the conflict in Ukraine, examining the shifting tides of war, who's gaining ground and the status of the front lines. Plus, a closer look at DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas' impeachment trial, which started this week in the Senate.

Oh, is it over already? I'll be right back. Welcome back. Yesterday afternoon, we examined the human toll that the war in Ukraine has already taken on both sides. amid the reports that 50,000 Russian soldiers, at a bare minimum, have died on the battlefield as a result of Putin's invasion. But as the war approaches its third summer, I want to take a closer look at the situation on the ground, at a more tactical level to see what, if anything, those lives have purchased. Russians have been on the offensive since winter of last year, and every inch of ground they've taken has been costly in terms of both men and equipment. Now, that's thanks in large part to the resilience and fighting spirit of the Ukrainian military.

But that being said, it's important to not look at this with rose-colored glasses, and it's clear at this point that Russian forces have and continue to make gains. Those gains have primarily come in Ukraine's Donbass region, the country's easternmost provinces, which are largely in Russian control at this point. Russia's advance is likely to accelerate over the next couple of months, and for a few reasons. First, Ukraine's mud season, which is called Rasputitsa in Russian, is coming to an end. As the weather grows warmer and drier, Russia's heavy vehicles are going to be able to move more rapidly. Next, Ukrainian forces are beginning to feel an acute shortage of equipment and munitions.

Speaking to the Wall Street Journal, one frontline company commander said, quote, we're short of everything. Well, that pretty much sums it up. If Ukraine stockpiles are not replenished in the near term, it's hard to see them holding out against a significant Russian advance. And finally, there's Ukraine's manpower issue. Now, this will partly be blunted by Ukraine's expansion of conscription. As we noted yesterday, President Zelensky just signed a law which lowered the draft age from 27 to 25. However, throwing raw recruits out of the battlefield is only going to go so far, as the veteran troops are already spread thin across a front line that stretches over 600 miles. So in short, the outlook for Ukraine is, speaking diplomatically, not positive.

That sentiment was echoed by Ukraine's new commander-in-chief, General Alexander Siersky, who gave a frank assessment last week, stating that the situation on the country's eastern front has deteriorated significantly in recent days. He and President Zelensky seemed to be of the same mind on this. When asked if he believed his country could survive without further aid, Zelensky replied, quote, I can tell you frankly, without this support, we will have no chance of winning, end quote. Now, it's not clear to me if the members of the U.S. Congress who have been busy blocking further aid to Ukraine understand the gravity of the situation. I suspect they don't, and I frankly don't believe that they have the experience to understand Putin's long-term intentions and

ambitions. Or maybe those representatives live in an imagined world where you can just draw the curtains around the U.S. and believe that international crises and conflict won't seriously impact and damage U.S. national and economic security interests. Look, I get the fiscal arguments, meaning we should be working to reduce government debt. Now, as an aside, how about shrinking the government? That could put a sizable dent in spending. And we should be very clear on how money to Ukraine, Israel, and other nations is spent and accounted for, and we should also definitely ensure that a proper budget is allocated to secure the U.S. border. But none of those things preclude supporting allies who are faced with existential threats. If the bombthrowers in

Congress who threaten the House Speaker every time he mutters Ukraine aid are okay with Putin winning, then they should just come out and say so, because that's what their actions are to. I mean, at least acknowledge that you understand the realities on the ground. And speaking of Capitol Hill, tensions ran high in the U.S. Senate chambers on Wednesday, as the body rejected articles of impeachment sent from the House against Homeland Security Secretary Majorcas over his handling of the border crisis. While there was never a high likelihood, or, let's be real, there was never a likelihood that the Democrat-dominated Senate would vote to formalize the impeachment, the tactic's.

of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer left Republican lawmakers steaming. A formal hearing in the Senate was set to begin on Wednesday. However, Schumer moved to skip an impeachment trial altogether, instead holding two full chamber votes to dismiss the articles and end the proceedings, according to the New York Times. Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell slammed the maneuvering, saying, quote, I wish I'd thought of that. No, okay, that was the wrong quote. What did he say? He said, quote, tabling articles of impeachment would be unprecedented in the history of the Senate. It's as simple as that, end quote. As a reminder, the U.S. House voted in February to impeach Majorcas, accusing him of willfully refusing to enforce U.S. immigration laws, facilitating the record levels of illegal

immigration occurring at the U.S. border under the Biden administration. They sent two articles of impeachment to the Senate, one alleging, quote, systemic refusal to comply with the law, and the second alleging a, quote, breach of public trust. Now, before a trial could get underway on Wednesday, Schumer made a motion to table or kill the first impeachment article, arguing it did not meet the constitutional standard of rising to the level of a high crime or misdemeanor. Schumer said, quote,

to validate this gross abuse by the House would be a grave mistake and could set a dangerous precedent for the future, end quote. After several attempts by Republicans to delay a vote, the Senate ruled Wednesday afternoon along party lines that the first article of impeachment was unconstitutional and formally dismissed the charge. After several more motions to delay the vote on the second article failed, the Senate then voted to dismiss that charge as well. The chamber then voted to formally close the impeachment trial. Look at that. We're all done. Nothing to see here, folks, move along. Democrats in both chambers have long criticized the Republican-driven impeachment efforts

as petty political theater. And if anybody knows, petty political theater, when they smell it, it's the Democrats. Republicans have countered that it was their only choice, given Majorcas's negligent handling of the border crisis and refusal to comply with federal immigration laws. Under the Biden administration, at least 7.2 million, and that's a conservative estimate, 7.2 million illegal immigrants have crossed into the U.S. through the southern border, and that's more than the combined population of 36 states. And that doesn't include upward of an estimated 2 million or so, who snuck across without encountering law enforcement,

referred to as known gotaways. And so with both charges dismissed in the Senate, it does appear that the saga of the Majoricus impeachment has now been formally put to bed. As I've said in the past, Washington, D.C. is where all investigations and special committees go to die. Now, the reality is, Majorcas is just a cabinet secretary. He's not setting policy. He's carrying out and promoting policies desired and set by the White House. While it's easy enough to argue that

Majorcas, yes, he's presided over the border crisis that has serious national and public security consequences, removing him doesn't solve the problem, although it would be refreshing in D.C. to see someone, anyone, held responsible for something at some point. All right, coming up in today's back of the brief, Dubai grapples with flooding from an intense rain bomb, while officials attribute the event to natural causes, questions are now being asked about the role of cloud seeding. I'll be right back.

In today's back of the brief, chaos erupted this week in the United Arab Emirates, as the country faced a historic deluge that turned Dubai's streets into rivers in a matter of hours. The scene was somewhat apocalyptic with the city, consumed by a pitch dark cloud before nearly four inches of rain fell over the course of just 12 hours on Tuesday. It poured into homes, flooded the airport, shutting down all flights, and forced motorists to abandon their cars on the roads as water levels rapidly rose. By Wednesday, officials said that some parts of the country saw as much as 10 inches of rainfall across 24 hours. It was the heaviest rainfall seen in the UAE in at least 75 years. In fact, such a storm has

not been seen in the country since they began keeping records in 1949. That was a good year to start keeping records, according to a report from CNN. The unprecedented nature of the rainfall has fueled speculation that the deluge was self-inflicted by accident. The claims stemmed from the fact that the UAE does engage in extensive cloud-seating operations to enhance rainfall and obviously avoid droughts in the arid environment. A review of flight tracking data by the Associated Press found that at least one aircraft linked to the cloud seating program was flying around the country on Sunday. An official at the UAE's National Center for Meteorology subsequently confirmed that the operations were active on Sunday and Monday ahead of the torrential rainfall. Well, not to rain

on the cloud seating proponents parade. You can see what I did there. But experts were quick to push back on the speculation, noting that cloud seeding can only increase seasonal rainfall by 10 to 30% at most. They also pointed to the fact that an abnormal weather system that had been traveling over the Middle East was already headed for the UAE. Officials blamed poor drainage systems in Dubai for the unprecedented flooding, according to a Daily Mail report. Giles Harrison, professor of atmospheric physics, who knew there was such a thing, at the University of Reading, told the Daily mail, quote, the UAE does do operational cloud seating, but there is a huge difference between what this can achieve, targeting individual developing clouds with seating material released from an

aircraft and the Dubai rainfall, end quote. His colleague added that, quote, there is no technology in existence that can create or even severely modify this kind of rainfall event. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Thursday, 18 April. If you have have any questions or comments for me, please reach out at PDB at thefirsttv.com. Now, to listen to the show ad-free, don't forget, you can become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.