The President's Daily Brief - April 30th, 2024: Netanyahu’s Dilemma, Mexico’s Campaign Carnage, & Honey Trap Hazards

Episode Date: April 30, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a dire choice as Israel stands on the brink of the Rafah offensive, with a ceasefire hanging in the balance and his coalition government at risk of collapsing. We dive into the turmoil of Mexico's politics, examining the lethal stakes of its upcoming June elections, marked by the assassination of over 30 candidates. Delving into the world of international intrigue, we uncover China’s heightened espionage campaigns in Europe, where ‘honey traps’ ensnare unsuspecting officials. In the Back of the Brief, we turn our gaze to Russia’s war the free press, targeting journalists from Western media outlets. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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And who doesn't want that? Come on, get up to 40% off at shopbeam.com slash PDB and use code PDB. It's Tuesday, 30 April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. As pressure mounts in Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement before the impending Rafa offensive, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is trapped in a political quagmire,

and how often do you hear the word quagmire? Regardless of his choice, ministers flanking him from the left and the right are threatening to tear down his fragile coalition government. Later in the show, we'll shift focus to Mexico, which is currently enduring its deadliest election period on record. Over 30 political candidates have been murdered leading up to the nation's June elections. Also, coming up, a tale of seduction and espionage. Ooh, look at that. We explore how China is intensifying its intelligence efforts in Europe, luring officials into compromising honey traps.

Ah, don't you just love a good romance? It's a tale as old as time. Boy meets hostile intelligence service girl. Boy falls in love, or something resembling love. Hostile intelligence service girl asks about something secret. Boy provides classified documents. Classic romance. And in today's back of the brief, we'll take a look at Russia's latest offensive,

not against Ukraine, but against journalists working for Western publications. Oh, look at that. Putin's added again, jailing more journalists. And please, let's not forget Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerskiewicz, still sitting in a Russian prison after well over a year, despite best efforts by the White House and the State Department. But first, today's PDB spotlight. There appears to be genuine optimism that a deal could be reached

between the Israeli government and Hamas in the coming days, which would halt the fighting in Gaza, at least for the time being, and secure the release of dozens of hostages. Israel seems to have softened its stance on the number of hostages it's willing to take in exchange for a ceasefire. As we reported yesterday, Israel initially demanded 40 hostages, including women, the elderly, and male hostages in poor medical condition. However, Israeli officials speaking to the New York Times now indicate the government is prepared to settle for just 33. One official claim that change was prompted partly by the fact that Israel now believes that some of the 40 on the initial list have died in captivity. More than 130 hostages are believed to still be held by various terrorist groups in Gaza.

The information remains unspecific given that Hamas has never provided any insight into the health or conditions of the hostages they took on 7 October during their rampage in southern Israel. A Hamas official told the Washington Post that, quote, there is hope, despite some lingering disagreements between the two sides. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blankin in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on Monday urged Hamas to accept the new proposal, telling reporters, quote, Hamas has before it a proposal that is extraordinarily, extraordinarily generous on the part of Israel. He added that the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and the ceasefire is Kamaas. Now, this pressure to accept a ceasefire deal has put Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in an incredibly

tight position, politically speaking, he's trying to hold together a coalition government with ministers on both sides threatening to tear it apart no matter what decision he makes. On one side, he's got his national security ministeria, Tamara Ben Gvur, a member of a far-right party. In a tweet this week, Ben-Gvur rejected any ceasefire for hostage deal, saying, that any, quote, reckless deal equals the disillusion of the government. Echoing Ben Gvir, finance minister Smodvich, in a social media video, cautioned Netanyahu, quote, if you decide to fly a white flag and cancel the order to conquer Rafa immediately to complete the mission of destroying Habas and restore peace, then the government you head will have no

right of existence, end quote. Those hardline stances are being denounced by the more liberal members of the coalition government, who are issuing their own ultimatums to the prime minister. The most prominent voice in the pro-deal corner is Minister without portfolio, Benny Gantz, and a minister without portfolio, as you likely know, is a member of the government who doesn't head a particular ministry or department. Gantz is a longtime adversary of a Netanyahu, and in a statement, he declared that, quote, if a responsible outline is reached for the return of the hostages, with the backing of the entire security establishment, which does not involve ending the war, and the ministers who led the government on October 7th prevent it,

then the government will have no right to continue to exist and lead the campaign, end quote. So, frankly, damned if you do and damned if you don't. Netanyahu finds himself in essentially a no-win situation. Regardless of the outcome in the coming days, you could argue that his days in political power may well be numbered. Coming up next, we spotlight Mexico's unprecedented election violence with over 30 candidates murdered before the June polls. Let me just repeat that. 30 political candidates have been murdered so far in the political season in Mexico. Plus, a glimpse into China's shadowy game of seduction and espionage in Europe. Who would have guessed that dudes could be duped into blabbing secrets in exchange for the mess around?

What a shock. I'll be right back. Welcome back. Mexico is spiraling into unprecedented violence ahead of their presidential, congressional, and local elections at the beginning of June. In fact, it's shaping up to be the most violent election season ever recorded in Mexico, and that's saying something, given that the country often contends with political assassinations and cartel threats when the nation heads to the polls. So far, more than 170 attacks have been leveled against politicians and they've run up to the June elections, and that's according to the publication Al Pice and an analysis by a Mexican think tank electoral laboratory. Some 30 candidates have already been murdered during the 2024 electoral process, while another 11 have been kidnapped and an estimated 77 have faced significant death threats. underscoring the chaos, two Mexican mayoral contenders were found dead on the same day

just a little over a week ago. It's also worth noting that the violence is not limited to the candidates themselves. Local groups estimate that there have been at least 27 other killings of family members, political organizers, and community leaders links to political candidates. Now, while Mexico is no stranger to political violence, the current climate is unprecedented, The director of the Electoral Laboratory think tank, which tracks these figures, told El Pice, quote, the phenomenon of electoral violence has been growing in the country and is increasingly spreading. It's not only a question of numbers, but also of territorial expansion. I don't think we have to wait for the numbers of fatalities to be exceeded.

This electoral process has been more violent, end quote. And for that, the director of the electoral laboratory is a big winner of today's PDB statement of the obvious award. The focus for cartels tends to be on local elections, particularly candidates for mayor or the state legislature, where they can more effectively exert their influence. In some areas of Mexico, the cartels wield almost total control. As an example in the state of Mitchell Khan, for example, 34 candidates have dropped out of the race so far due to violent threats from the cartels.

Two mayoral candidates in the region were shot dead on the same day in February. while the mayor of another town in the Mexican municipality was killed inside a restaurant in April. Officials with the electoral laboratory explained, quote, what we're seeing is that there are areas of the country where there's a total absence of the state, where neither the security forces nor local governments can act, end quote. The Mexican government and various party leaders have condemned the violence and attempted to bolster security, but there appears to be little that they can do to rein in the cartels.

Earlier this month, the government moved to provide bodyguards to some 250 candidates. However, those at greatest risk in municipal elections are last in line to receive additional security. And on an ominous note, observers only expect the violence to worsen as the June 2nd election approaches. Shifting gears to China, reports are emerging that the CCP is hitting the throttle on their influence operations in Europe, targeting politicians across the continent as part of their expansive espionage efforts. The scale of the espionage is vast, with China employing hundreds of thousands of intelligence officers through its civilian spy body, the Ministry of State Security. For context, the UK's intelligence services have maybe a combined staff of roughly 9,000. The networks are

used for everything from the theft of foreign intelligence and technology to information. infiltrating the staff of politicians, according to a report by the Financial Times. The espionage activities of China were thrown into sharp relief last week in a series of high-profile arrests in Germany and the UK. Three German citizens were arrested over allegations they were attempting to sell sensitive military technology to the CCP, while another German citizen, working for a leader of Germany's right wing in the European Parliament, was arrested over accusations that he was working covertly for China. In the UK, two men, one who served as a parliamentary researcher,

were charged with spying on behalf of the CCP. They're the first espionage charges of their kind related to China to be brought in either the UK or Germany. Regional analysts say European leaders have increasingly lost patience with the subversive activities of the CCP, particularly as they expand their focus into political infiltration. Officials in France have also warned that China's deception is not limited to politicians and other high-profile targets. They say there is increasing evidence that the CCP is using what's referred to as honeypot operations

to gain access to sensitive military secrets. French officials point to a flurry of weddings. It's a flurry happening in the industrial port city of Brest. which harbors the French Navy and their nuclear submarines. In recent years, they say there has been a sizable uptick in weddings, isn't that romantic, between female Chinese students and local men who work at the French naval bases. What a coincidence. No cases have been brought in the city, but security officials in France say the activity

has all the hallmarks of a Chinese honeypot operation. The CCP efforts also underscore broader fears in Europe, regarding the relationship of China and leaders at the Kremlin, as the Chinese networks appear to intersect with the covert activities of Russia. Now, as we've been covering on the PDB, China and Russia have continued to deepen their ties amid the war in Ukraine. Dan Lomas, an expert on international relations at the University of Nottingham, told the Financial Times, quote, China and Russia are playing from the same authoritarian playbook, so doubt about democracy, and gain influence among any groups that challenge existing political divisions through a slow

drip-drip of action. The aim is to create discord, end of quote. The EU's Foreign Service had warned back in 2019 that an estimated 250 known Chinese spies were operating in Brussels, the seat of EU power. Officials say the true number of covert operatives in the city is now likely much higher. and I would argue that the officials are absolutely correct. Coming up in the back of the brief, the Kremlin launches a new crackdown on journalists, jailing several reporters from Western publications. We'll have more on that when we come back.

USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. apply. In today's back of the brief, as Russia's offensive continues in Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin is launching an offensive of a different kind against journalists. So, for Putin, it's a familiar page out of his standard playbook. Over the weekend, at least three journalists with ties to Western publications were detained by Russian security services. The first two, Constantine Gabov and

Sergei Karelin, both detained on Friday. were charged with, quote, extremism. And as we should know by now, extremism in Russia is, well, it's whatever Putin says it is. The men have contributed to a number of news organizations over the years, including Reuters and the Associated Press. The government alleges that the pair have ties to a group started by the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, called the Foundation for Fighting Corruption, and helped the organization prepare materials for its YouTube channel. The journalists have denied the claims of extremism and are now being held in pretrial detention. They could serve two to six years in prison if convicted of participating

in an extremist organization, that's per Russian legal authorities. In addition, a journalist for the Russian edition of Forbes magazine was arrested over the weekend. State media reports that Sergei Mingazov was placed under house arrest by a Russian court on Saturday. In a post on Facebook, his lawyer said that Minkazov is accused of spreading false information about the Russian military. More specifically, he's been arrested for reposting articles about the Bukkah Massacre back in April of 2022, where Ukrainian authorities found the bodies of more than four-hearted civilians after Russian forces withdrew from the city. Russia expanded its so-called fake news laws shortly after its invasion of Ukraine, those who

knowingly spread supposed false information about the Russian military could face a prison sentence of up to 15 years. Well, isn't that convenient? The three men join Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gerskovich, who has been in Russian custody now for close to 400 days. Four hundred days. Let's all remember reporter Evan Gershkevich. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, 30 April. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, remember, become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker.

I'll be back later today with the BDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.