The President's Daily Brief - April 8th, 2024: Gaza Turning Point, Ecuador Embassy Raid, & Turkey’s Treaty Exit

Episode Date: April 8, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We reflect on the 6-month anniversary of Hamas' assault in Israel, analyzing the turning point as the IDF concludes its active ground operation in Gaza and troops withdraw. A diplomatic storm unfolds as we discuss the bold move by Ecuadorian police entering Mexico’s embassy to detain a former Vice President, triggering international backlash and a diplomatic meltdown. The geopolitical chessboard shifts with Turkey's decision to exit a key NATO arms treaty, ratcheting up the military stakes in Europe. In our Back of the Brief segment, the surge of Chinese nationals at the southern border prompts high-stakes US-China talks to facilitate increased deportations. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today's episode is brought to you by Beam. Transform your sleep with Beam's dream. It's the secret behind 15 million nights of improved sleep. Fall asleep faster, stay asleep longer, and wake up refreshed. Seriously, who doesn't want all that? Get up to 40% off at Shop Beam, that's B-E-A-M dot com slash PDB, and use code PDB. It's Monday, 8 April. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.

I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. This week marks the six-month anniversary of Hamas's deadly rampage through southern Israel, and it looks like the war they started has hit an inflection point. The IDF has announced that it is withdrawing all but one brigade from Gaza, leading to speculation about just what the dramatic drawdown means. Coming up later in the show, Ecuadorian police stormed Mexico's embassy and arrest a former Ecuadorian vice president.

The violation of diplomatic norms has led to international outrage and an implosion of relations between the two nations. Plus, tensions continue to rise as Turkey becomes the latest NATO country to suspend a decades-old arms treaty that imposed limits on deploying conventional military equipment in Europe. And in today's back of the brief, tens of thousands of Chinese nationals continue to pour over the U.S. southern border. Now, the U.S. is reportedly conducting high-level discussions with China, aimed at increasing the number of Chinese nationals deported from the United States. The question is, is Xi Jinping's regime willing to take them back? But first, today's spotlight. Some major news out of Gaza this weekend.

The Israeli Defense Forces, the IDF, announced that they are withdrawing all but one brigade of troops from Gaza. The IDF said on Sunday that the troops being pulled had, quote, concluded their mission in the city of Khan Yunus, that's the enclave's second largest city, Gaza city being the largest, where fierce fighting has been taking place for months. According to a statement from the IDF, the troops left behind will, quote, preserve the IDF's freedom of action and its ability to conduct precise intelligence-based operations, end quote. The remaining forces would be located along the so-called Natsarim Corridor, a road built by the Israeli military that roughly splits the Gaza Strip and 2 between north and south. The IDF contingent in Gaza is now at its lowest level since the

ground invasion started in late October of last year. Although this withdrawal represents a dramatic move for the Israeli armed forces, the military has been tight-lipped about the reasons for withdrawing their soldiers or the numbers involved. According to U.S. officials, Israeli troops may simply be moving out in order to recover after months of operating in Gaza. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told ABC's this week, quote, it is really just about rest and refit for these troops, and not necessarily that we can tell,

indicative of some coming new operation for these troops, end quote. Kirby added that it's hard to know exactly what the troop drawdown tells us. However, the timing of this move is leading to a lot of speculation as to what it may mean. The withdrawal comes in the face of mounting international pressure and a growing rift between Israel and the United States. In a tense call last week between President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Biden told Netanyahu that he needed to take more steps to protect civilians and allow more aid into Gaza or face consequences. Although a top IDF official told the Jerusalem Post that the withdrawal has nothing to do with U.S. pressure, the timing of the move

is unmistakable. It comes just two days after Israel approved the reopening of a major crossing into northern Gaza and the temporary use of Ahtad Port in southern Israel to allow a greater flow of humanitarian aid supplies into Gaza. In addition to the U.S. pressure, the withdrawal could be a response to recent threats from Iran, following an Israeli airstrike that flattened part of the Iranian embassy in Syria. Iran has vowed to, quote, punish the Zionist regime for the attack which killed several high-ranking members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. Israel may also be preparing for a conflict along its northern frontier, where Iranian-backed Tazebullah represents a significant threat. As a matter of fact, the Israeli military said on Sunday

that they are taking steps to prepare for a possible war along its northern front, where it's been trading fire with the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia for six months now. Finally, the timing of the withdrawal coincides with another round of hostage talks, and Israel's War Cabinet announced on Sunday that it would be sending a delegation to Cairo to participate, so this could be a move to help secure the roughly 130 hostages held by Hamas that remain inside Gaza. All right, coming up next, a significant breach of international norms. Ecuadorian authorities forcefully enter Mexico's embassy in Quito, Ecuador, detaining a former

vice president. The world reacts to this assault on diplomatic relations, causing a severe rift between Ecuador and Mexico. Also, on the horizon, a growing strain within NATO, as Turkey withdraws from a long-standing European arms control treaty, escalating military tension across the continent. Ah, excellent. Just what we need. More military tension. I'll be right back. Welcome back. I want to turn now to Ecuador, where in a surprising move, police stormed the Mexican embassy in the nation's capital of Quito and arrested the country's former vice president, Jorge

Glass. The move has led to international outrage and the severance of diplomatic relations between the two countries. Now, to understand what's going on here, we need a little background on this story. Jorge Glas served as Ecuador's vice president from 2013. to 2017 under its leftist ex-president Rafael Korea. He was subsequently implicated in several major corruption scandals, including one related to a Brazilian construction conglomerate called Odebrecht. He was charged with receiving millions of dollars and bribes from the company

in exchange for awarding them public contracts. Well, that's got to be the first time that sort of things happened. The scandal was part of a larger corruption probe known as Operation Car Wash, which exposed widespread corruption involving Odebrecht and other companies across Latin America. In December, 2017, Glass was sentenced to six years in prison after being found guilty. Now, after serving around four and a half years of his sentence, he was released from prison after a judge ruled that his physical and psychological well-being were at risk. that's very humanitarian. Glass has claimed all along that his imprisonment was politically motivated, and after being charged with corruption, yet again, he decided to take refuge inside the Mexican embassy

where he's been since December of this last year. Now, in response to Friday's raid, Mexico labeled the raid as, quote, an outrage against international law and has severed its diplomatic ties with Ecuador, claiming that embassy's staff members were injured during the raid. A foreign ministry spokesperson said all Mexican diplomatic staff would be leaving Ecuador immediately. Now Ecuadorian officials have come out to defend the move. At a news conference Saturday, Ecuadorian foreign minister Gabriela Somerfeld said the decision to raid the Mexican embassy and arrest class was made, quote, in the face of a real risk of imminent escape. She went on to say, quote, for Ecuador, no criminal can be considered a politically persecuted person when he has been

convicted with an enforceable sentence and with an arrest warrant issued by the judicial authorities, end quote. Since being arrested, Gloss has been transferred to a maximum security prison. I probably don't have to tell you that storming another nation's embassy is a major breach of international norms. Specifically, it's a violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, which allows for embassies to grant asylum to foreigners even if they have criminal convictions. It's been in place since 1963 and bans forced entry into embassies. There's also a bit of irony here that's probably worth mentioning. In the past, Ecuador protected WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange from British law enforcement, granting him asylum and allowing him to

live in the Ecuadorian embassy in London for seven years. Okay, let's turn now to Europe, where Turkey has become the latest nation to suspend a Critical Arms Treaty meant to reduce the risk of conventional war on the continent. Starting today, Turkey is suspending its obligations under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, known as the CFE. The country's foreign ministry stated that Turkey was not fully withdrawing from the treaty, but only suspending its implementation. They added that the decision could be reversed in the future. Now, Turkey isn't the first country to do this in recent months. Russia announced it was formally withdrawing from the treaty back in November.

Moscow's announcement really didn't mean much in a practical sense since it hadn't abided by the treaty since 2007. However, shortly after its decision, NATO countries, including the U.S., the U.S., the U.K. and Germany, announced similar measures, suspending their obligations under the treaty. The CFE has been a cornerstone of efforts to keep Europe peaceful since the closing days of the Cold War. It was originally signed back in 1990 in order to ease tensions between NATO and the Warsaw Pact.

It aimed to dismantle the massive stockpiles of arms that had accumulated across the continent. Well, as it turns out, Putin's invasion of Ukraine was the fastest way to dismantle massive stockpiles of arms across the continent. At its heart, the CFE Treaty established equal limits on major categories of military equipment. This included tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery, combat aircraft, and attack helicopters. By setting these caps, the treaty sought to prevent any alliance from having the overwhelming force necessary for a surprise attack or large-scale offensive. But the CFE Treaty went beyond mere numbers. It mandated the destruction of excess weaponry and the relocation of war transformation of military

assets to meet its stringent requirements. Now, this massive reduction effort was designed to foster trust, build stability, and enhance security across a continent that had been divided by decades of Cold War tensions. So, yeah, and looking at it now, not really a success story. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, as the influx of Chinese nationals across the southern border reaches unprecedented numbers, the U.S. engages in high-level talks with China. Top-level negotiations are underway to address the surge and expand. the deportation of Chinese nationals.

I'll be right back. USAA knows dynamic duos can save the day, like superheroes and sidekicks or auto and home insurance. With USAA, you can bundle your auto and home and save up to 10%. Tap the banner to learn more and get a quote at usa.com slash bundle. Restrictions apply. In today's back of the brief, a follow-up to a story we brought you last week

concerning the wave of Chinese nationals being stopped at the southern border of the U.S. According to Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, the U.S. is now conducting high-level discussions with the Chinese regime aimed at increasing the number of Chinese nationals deported from the United States. In an interview with NBC News on Sunday, Secretary Mayorkas said, quote, we've been working with the People's Republic of China to actually receive individuals whom we have determined are not eligible to remain in the U.S., end quote. As we reported last week, there's been a surge in migrant encounters with Chinese nationals at the U.S. southern border. In the first five months of this fiscal year, which started in October, CBP reports that it has encountered over 22,000 Chinese citizens.

Now, for context, in 2021, that number was 342 for the entire year. So that's an increase of some 6,300 percent. The number grew to more than 24,000 in fiscal year 2023. So given that we're only halfway through 2024 and are nearing that 2023 total already, it seems we may be on pace to more than double the number of Chinese migrants we saw last year. For a long time, the U.S. has listed China among recalcitrant or non-cooperative countries when it comes to accepting deportations of their nationals, and this has led to complications for U.S. immigration and customs.

enforcement, as they've sometimes been forced to release individuals with deportation orders back into American communities, including some with convictions for violent crimes due to Beijing's refusal to cooperate. And in 2022, China formally cut off cooperation on deportations following a visit by then-speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. So, while it's a good thing that these discussions with the Chinese regime are underway, it will not be surprising. if the Chinese regime does little to nothing to assist the U.S. with this deportation issue. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, 8 April. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirsttv.com.

I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.