The President's Daily Brief - August 22nd, 2022. The Hard Truth About Ukraine's Main Nuclear Plant. Chinese Coal Usage Continues to Rise. Coffee Crops are Plummeting.

Episode Date: August 22, 2022

It’s August 22nd. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ First, there are lots of stories and rumors about Ukraine’s main nuclear power plant this morning. It’s not Chernobyl but a placed called Zaporizhzhia. I’m going to explain exactly what’s going on, the threats, and whether or not you should be worried. As always, I’m keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, Joe Biden is kicking off a national tour this week, highlighting his new climate change bill. But a new rail line for coal shipments in China suggests that this celebration might be misplaced. Second, Mother Nature is wrecking havoc on all sorts of crops this year. Unfortunately, we can add a personal favorite of mine to the list: coffee. That’s coming up. And finally, the last thing before I let you go. Question from Angela in Franklin, North Carolina about that very unusual bank robbery in the country of Lebanon that I shared with you last week. ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's August 22nd. You're listening to the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA Officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. First up, there are lots of stories and rumors about Ukraine's main nuclear power plant this morning. It's not Chernobyl, but a place called Zaporiza. I'm going to explain exactly what's going on, the threats, and whether or not you should be worried. As always, I'm keeping an eye out for developing stories. Put these two on your radar. First, Joe Biden is kicking off a national tour this week, highlighting his new climate change bill. But a new rail line for coal shipments in China suggests that this celebration might be misplaced. Second, Mother Nature is wrecking havoc on all sorts of crops this year.

Unfortunately, we can add a personal favorite of mine to the list. Coffee. That's coming up. And finally, the last thing before I let you go, a question from Angela in Franklin, North Carolina, about that very unusual bank robbery in the country of Lebanon that I shared with you last week. But first, let's get started with today's main brief. Over the past week, there have been an increasing number of very frightening headlines about a nuclear power plant in Ukraine coming under attack, as Moscow and Kiev battle in southern Ukraine. The name of that power plant is not the more famous one, Chernobyl, as you might know, although that plant was of concern early on.

the war. Instead, the name is Zaporizia, and it's a very important power plant for Ukraine and for Europe. So let's get started with that, why we care. Now, Zaporizia is Europe's largest nuclear power plant. Output has unfortunately dropped recently, most especially after the war started. Right now, they've got two of the six nuclear reactors still functional. But it's quite something that it's still even functional at all. And that's because it's under Russian control. They've got about 500 troops there, and they've got no Russian energy staff. Instead, it's being operated by Ukrainian technicians. And they haven't left because Russia won't let them. Moscow doesn't have its own nuclear staff to spare, so they've mandated at gunpoint, basically, that the Ukrainians can't leave. So for better

or worse, the plant is still creating electricity for both Ukraine and others throughout. Europe. And that's very important, and no small part because electricity is in very short supply all throughout the continent. As listeners know, Europe's power plants are struggling because they are running short of the natural gas that they normally get from Russia. Supply is down 20% of normal, all because Russia has nearly closed off the spigot. So it is critical that this power plant in Ukraine stay online. But that's not the only reason that you and I should care, in other words, to ensure that our European trade partners can keep their lights on. Instead, most of us are probably concerned about a nuclear accident and a global fallout, and that makes sense, because if you have read

some of the scary headlines lately, that's probably what you have been focused on. So let's start with what we know, what we don't, and what is likely to happen. So let's start with some good news. We know that thankfully those reactors at Zaporiza are very well built. In fact, they are built to withstand an attack. Now obviously we would not want to test such a thing, but let's take comfort that this place is built like a tank. But, and there is always a bud, we've got a nuclear power plant that is absolutely in the middle of a war. And generally, we would prefer that that not be the case. So how much war is going on either at or near this plant? Well, unfortunately, a fair amount. Those 500 Russian soldiers at the plant are launching rockets and other weaponry from around

the facility right at Ukrainian forces. And they're doing that because they know or suspect that President Zelensky of Ukraine and his forces won't fire back. In fact, Zelensky has said as much because he and others fear that they might strike the power lines that actually feed the power plant, which is somewhat curious. You would think that a power plant doesn't need an outside source of electricity for its own operations, but that's not true with nuclear power plants. They need an external supply of electricity to make sure that some very important pumps keep some very important water very cold. So this water swishes around the nuclear material and keeps it nice and cool. Because if the material gets too hot, it starts a fire. And then we have a nuclear meltdown

and radiation that spreads through smoke or contaminated water. So if Ukraine's forces were to accidentally bomb those external power lines going to the plant and those cooling pumps, well, then you would have a real disaster. Although that begs the question, how bad of a disaster would we have? Well, we've actually got some modestly good news on this. So Zaporizza doesn't have a lot of nuclear material on site that would melt down and burn. Again, there are only two reactors left of the original six. And most of the spare used nuclear material isn't sitting around in cooling ponds.

It was sent abroad a long time ago. And that means even if there were a new, nuclear meltdown and fire, God forbid, the fallout would be, well, bad, but not necessarily global. But make no mistake, there would absolutely be immediate damage in the local area and possibly a radiation cloud heading north and west into Poland and the Baltics. So it would certainly not be good for Eastern Europe. Now, there's one more thing that you should know. While it's true that there is war all around this nuclear plant, both sides have reason to not damage. it. So I mentioned President Zelensky and his motivations, especially to keep supplying energy to Europe

and not poison his country. But what about the Russians? Russia's President Vladimir Putin actually wants the plant kept safe too, and that's because he needs the electricity from this plant for his own purposes. He plans to use it for the new areas of Ukraine that he's occupied, the south and the eastern parts of the country. So he is incentivized not to destroy it. For what it's worth, leaders in Europe in the United States and the UN have asked Putin to demilitarize the nuclear plant. In other words, get his forces out of there. But he refuses. He says that he doesn't want to leave it vulnerable to attack. You can decide whether you believe that rationale. So those are the facts this morning, a better sense of the risks involved, and what could happen. If I were briefing you in the

White House, here would be my quick recap and counsel. This nuclear power plant is important, especially the electricity that it provides to Europe and Ukraine. And that means it's important to us too. We are pumping in billions of dollars of support to Ukraine and arguably our European allies in the form of natural gas. We need to keep this plant online. It's equally undeniable that there is fighting all around the facility. Moscow is absolutely launching a task. Moscow is absolutely launching a from this plant against the Ukrainians and using it as a shield. They know that Zelensky's forces won't fire back. Still, we can take a degree of comfort knowing that this plant has built like a tank

and that both Zelensky and Putin want to keep it safe for their own use down the road. So the immediate takeaway is that we have to direct Zelensky to show restraint around this plant. We have to avoid hitting the electricity lines that feed those all-important cooling pumps inside the facility. And God forbid there were a nuclear meltdown. The immediate effects would be local and regional. But there is an unspoken cost here that you probably haven't heard elsewhere. That area is prime agricultural ground where farmers grow wheat and corn and sunflowers. So any nuclear radiation could drift right over and onto some of that ground, making it unusable for generations. And that is a permanent wheat war.

So all this is to say that finding a way to end this conflict, most especially around the nuclear plant in the short term, that is of critical importance. So whatever deal we have to make, no matter how we have to pinch our nose at the unhappy concessions with Putin, well, we've got to do it. It's time. Let's do it before the situation goes from bad to much, much worse. Coming up, ladies and gentlemen, a closer look at what's on my radar. Two quick briefs for you, one on a new rail line in China, and the other on the price of coffee.

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As always, I'm watching a few other stories this morning. Put these two on your radar. First, Joe Biden is heading out on a tour of the nation this week, promoting what he is calling the success of recent domestic initiatives, most especially the Inflation Reduction Act. As listeners know, the law doesn't actually reduce inflation, not according to nonpartisan analysis anyway, but it does make a $370 billion investment in promoting

renewable energy. So the hope, of course, by Biden and his team is to replace oil and coal and natural gas in order to stop climate change. As Biden launches this tour, however, China is announcing something that suggests that the Inflation Reduction Act isn't going to reduce climate change much at all. Last week, authorities in Beijing announced the completion of a new 153-mile railroad track from a massive coal mine in China to markets all around the country. And that will increase the mine's rail capacity by over 90%. But to really understand the magnitude of this development, you have to understand the size of this Chinese coal mine.

So let's consider one of America's biggest coal mines, to the North Antelope Rochelle mine near Gillette, Wyoming. And it's got around 1.2 billion tons of recoverable reserves based on a recent assessment that I saw. So you compare that 1.2 billion of hours to the mine in China. They've got 390 billion tons of coal and reserve, again, compared to our 1.2. That's according to the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology. And folks, they are using that coal.

They've developed an industrial park in the area with over 1,000 factories and power plants. So according to the South China Morning Post, this park produces 300 gigawatts of electricity daily, about the amount produced by 12 large nuclear reactors. all of which is to say that this new rail line and the reserves of the Zhongdong mine are clear indicators that coal isn't going anywhere fast, certainly not in China nor the world. In fact, so far this year, coal production in China is up 12%. They're also buying record amounts from Russia and North Korea. So all in all, I will let you decide if, in light of this information,

Biden's climate change bill is smart energy policy or something short of it. Finally this morning, some bad news for my fellow coffee lovers. The coffee crop in Brazil, not looking good this year, and that could lead to higher prices that you pay for your daily cup of coffee. In the last year, farmers in Brazil have had to deal with two very different challenges. First, they had a very unusual frost that killed or stunted plant growth. And then they had a long stretch of very unusual drought. And that's a problem for Brazil, because they make billions off of their coffee trade as

the world's biggest coffee exporter. And of course, it's bad for those of us who, well, we enjoy our coffee. Analysts are predicting that it'll push up prices probably over the next three to six months. But how bad is it going to get? Well, best case scenario is that we are looking at 35 million bags of coffee compared to 48 million in a good year. Worst case scenario is around 25 million bags rather than the 48. We should have a better sense over the coming weeks of which of those scenarios is most likely. By the way, these same poor weather conditions are hitting another big coffee exporter, Colombia.

And they're, of course, a neighbor of Brazil, so no surprise that both countries are feeling the wrath of Mother Nature this year. All in all, prepare for higher prices might be a good time to run to Costco to stock up. We'll be right back. All right, ladies and gentlemen, one more thing before I'd let you go this morning.

A question from Angela and Franklin, North Carolina, about that very unusual bank robbery in the country of Lebanon that I shared with you last week. So let me refresh our memories on that before we hear Angela's question. We first talked about the country of Lebanon during the wheat wars. Lebanon used to buy a whole bunch of wheat from Ukraine but was struggling without it. But what I shared last week is that the struggle wasn't just with the lack of wheat. The country is deeply corrupt. The economy is collapsing.

Their inflation rate is 890%. and as a part of the response to that, the nation's leaders have locked people out of their bank accounts. And that led one man to an act of desperation. Basam al-Shake Hussein, he's a 42-year-old fellow who had a very sick father who needed medical care. And it was going to cost around $30,000 for the surgery. And Mr. Hussein, he actually had it in his bank account. But his government refused to let him have it. And so he robbed his own bank for his own money.

When the hostage negotiations ended, he got $35,000 of his own money, but in exchange, he was arrested. So Angela wrote in asking this question, how is it that that nation, the whole nation isn't revolting? I can't imagine people putting up with that. What is going on inside Lebanon that's stopping them from overthrowing their government? Well, great question, Angela, and I love your spirit. So here's what we know this morning. First, let me give you a really good update. the bank decided to drop its demands for charges against Mr. Hussein.

And so the judge overseeing the case dismissed charges and promptly released him to his family. And that was very smart. And I say that because I can't tell you how angry the people of Lebanon are this morning. From friends that I've spoken with who lived there, the anger is palpable. It's like a brush fire waiting to happen. So why hasn't it happened already? Well, the answer is that whoever controls the gun, controls the nation. And right now, the average person doesn't control the guns, nor really does

the Lebanese government. I mean, there is a Lebanese government and a national military, but for decades, the real power has been with a group called Hezbollah. It's a terror group backed by Iran, and they call the shots in Lebanon. And incredibly enough, some people in Lebanon actually like the group. That's because Hezbollah hands out free food and free clothes and cash, they bribe the people. So in very simple terms, that's a big reason for why this mess exists. Hezbollah doesn't want a well-run democratic nation. It's easier for them to create and control the chaos. And because they control the guns too and a well-trained militia, this situation likely won't change. Unless there is a national tipping point.

Now, people may not have guns, but they can use their feet and their fists. hundreds of thousands or millions of people could overrun the government and demand that Hezbollah-backed politicians leave. Now, I don't know if that tipping point has come. Lebanon has been such a mess for so long that I'm not really sure that the people have the fight in them. But if there were ever a public moment that people could rally around, it would be this man who had to rob his own bank to pay for his family's own medical care. Regardless, Angela, I will keep you posted on how this goes. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every

good spy and every smart American. It's from John chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day. How many discounts does USA auto insurance offer? Too many to say Multi-vehicle discount, safe driver discount, new vehicle discount, storage discount, legacy. How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com slash auto discounts. Restrictions apply.