The President's Daily Brief - August 25th, 2022. Special Brief: The Fight in Ukraine.

Episode Date: August 25, 2022

It’s August 25th. You’re listening to the President’s Daily Brief. Your morning intel starts now. ------ Welcome to this Special Edition of the PDB. This week marks the six month anniversary of war in Ukraine. We have seen so many twists and turns, so many developments, that it’s been overwhelming at times. And maybe that’s why polls show Americans are kind of losing interest.  A mid-July Fox News poll showed 69% of us were concerned about Russia’s invasion, but that’s down from 82% in March. In terms of overall concern, the issue of Ukraine ranked sixth of eight issues tested. But it’s still a major story, with one clear reason: it’s costing you billions of dollars — at least $13.5B so far. To give you a sense of how shocking that is, when we were fighting in Afghanistan in 2019, we committed around $5B. Again, $13.5B for one year in Ukraine, $5B in Afghanistan. Plus, there’s a very real concern that this war could escalate and cause us to fight a much bigger war with a nuclear-armed Russian. That would mean your friends and neighbors would be involved in the most horrifying battle that the globe has ever seen. So, we are going to remind ourselves of this complicated story this morning. We’re going to do a recap of the past six months. But don’t worry, I’m going to use an analogy to help us through it. This is going to be a little unconventional, so hang with me. I want you to think of this brief like you’re watching a boxing match. So get out those maps, fire up some theme music from Rocky, settle in for six months of punches and counterpunches.  ------ Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of the President's Daily Brief. Email: [e-mail] Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's August 25th. You're listening to a special edition of the President's Daily Brief. I'm your host and former CIA officer Brian Dean Wright. Your morning intel starts now. Welcome to this special edition of the PDB. This week marks the six-month anniversary of the war in Ukraine. We have seen so many twists and turns, so many developments, that it's been overwhelming at times. And maybe that's why polls show that Americans are kind of losing interest. A mid-July Fox News poll showed that 69% of us were, well, in fact, concerned about Russia's invasion, but that is down from 82% in March. And in terms of overall concern, the issue of Ukraine ranked sixth of eight issues tested.

But it's still a major story with one clear reason. It's costing you billions of dollars, at least 13.5 billion so far. And to give you a sense of how shocking that number is, when we were fighting in Afghanistan, in 2019, we committed around $5 billion, again 13.5 in one year in Ukraine versus $5 billion in Afghanistan. Plus, there is a very real concern that this war could escalate and cause us to fight a much bigger war with a nuclear armed Russia. And that would mean your friends and your neighbors would be involved in the most horrifying battle that the globe has ever seen. So we are going to remind ourselves of this complicated story this morning.

And we're going to recap the past six months. But don't worry, I'm going to use an analogy to help us get through it. It's going to be a little bit unconventional, so hang with me. I want you to think about this brief like you are watching a boxing match. So get out some maps, fire up some theme music from Rocky, maybe, and settle in for six months of punches and counterpunches. So let's get going. In one corner, ladies and gentlemen, is Russia. Now, its president, Vladimir Putin has said for years,

that Ukraine is, well, kind of his. His culture, similar languages, shared history. But he said, Europe and NATO were trying to steal it from him. Now, according to Putin, the West is pulling Ukraine away from his influence. And if they succeed, they would probably put American troops right along his border. Now, was he right about that? Some people say yes, others say no. So we are going to skip that debate for now.

But regardless, he was spoiling for a fight. Now, in the other corner is Ukraine. Its president, Vladimir Zelensky, was frankly not much of a fighter six months ago. In fact, he wasn't even popular amongst his own people. He faced allegations of corruption and being anti-democratic. In fact, they viewed him as a washed up former actor. So consider this. In December, just before the war, only 31% of Ukrainians supported Zelensky.

Plus, he had some very dangerous fellow countrymen. There is a group called the Azov Battalion that was and is a neo-Nazi group. In 2019, over 40 members of our U.S. Congress demanded that the State Department list that group as a terrorist organization, no different than al-Qaeda. So there it is, our two fighters in this boxing match, Putin and Zelensky. And then in February, the bell rang. The fight kicked off. Russia invaded the capital city of Kiev, thinking that Zelensky and his little army, were much too weak to defend the country.

Putin sincerely believed that the Ukrainian people would welcome Russia as liberators, but Putin was wrong. Ukrainians may not have liked Zelensky, but they were interested in being invaded either. So that's why Putin didn't lead with much of a punch. He tried a little slap, and Ukraine counterpunched him right in the nose and knocked Russia to the ground. Nobody expected that. Not Europe or their intelligence services, and not just.

Joe Biden or the CIA. Your intelligence community thought that Ukraine would collapse within days. In fact, Joe Biden offered Zelenskyy a flight out of Kiev to flee his nation. He's reported to have replied to Biden, I don't need a ride, I need ammunition. Well, that got the attention of the Pentagon and the White House and lots of capitals all around the world. And two big boxing coaches rushed in to aid their preferred fighter. In Ukraine's corner, well, there was America and our bucket of cash and weapons. And at first, we provided mostly just basic guns and ammunition, a few simple drones and some trucks,

but that escalated quickly. We got to anti-tank missiles, anti-ship missiles, tactical intelligence. Biden also gave billions of dollars to prop up the government itself to pay salaries and pensions, social programs. All in, Joe Biden and our Congress committed $50 billion. to this effort. Again, to give you a sense of how shocking that is, the scale of it, we committed $5 billion to Afghanistan in 2019. But why? Why that massive investment from America on a scale never seen in recent memory? Well, as Joe Biden and his Secretary of Defense both said

last spring, the goal is to weaken Russia and remove Vladimir Putin. It's not about Kiev, it's about regime change in Moscow. So as America came in to coached, Ukraine, somebody else came into Russia's corner, and that is China. Beijing has long hated the West, America most especially. They fundamentally want to see America weakened and destroyed. So what better chance to do so than stand next to Russia as they fight not just Ukraine, but the West? Okay, now that we have our fighters and our coaches, let's get back into the fight. Ukraine knocked Russia to the floor in those first few days, but Putin got up and changed his approach. He retreated to the east and to the south, in other words, to bolster his forces there.

But why? Well, first, the citizens of those areas were more closely aligned with Russia, their language, their economy, their culture. Second, the supply lines were easier to maintain. Eastern Ukraine borders Russia, so their rail lines and their roads could more easily facilitate the transfer Russian fighters and gear and weaponry into the fight. And that worked very well. Russia made considerable advances, punching Ukraine hard and capturing territory.

Well, Coach America saw their fighter in trouble, so they got to work. Outside of the ring, they and European countries passed massive sanctions against the Russians. So the goal was to crush Russia's economy, crush their ability to pay for the war. And they went after Russia's big moneymaker, and that's oil. Moscow gets around 40% of their revenue from oil and gas trading. Well, Russia's coach, that is to say China, took notice of all this, and they decided to help their fighter. They dramatically increased their purchases of Russian oil and coal. Now, other countries did too, like India, cheering on Moscow from the stands.

Or to be just a little bit more accurate, countries like China and India technically stayed neutral in the fight. They criticized America in the West, and then they happily purchased Russia's oil at a very discounted price. and those purchases kept and will continue to keep Russia in the fight. All right, back to the ring. Last spring, Joe Biden and the Pentagon kept ramping up our provision of weapons and intelligence. And that allowed Ukraine to launch a pretty good series of punches. In fact, they sunk a very important Russian ship. It's called the Moscow.

And they shot down a Russian transport plane with over 200 soldiers. But Moscow didn't let up. They took the key city of Maripal with a very important steel. plant. And they captured a region that supplies fresh water to the farms in an area called Crimea. So all in all, it was a very brutal spring. Nobody really won, but nobody really lost. In the words of military watchers, it was and it remains a war of attrition. Nobody is strong enough to kill the other, so they just muddle along. And that takes us almost to the end of round one. We are going to talk about round two after a commercial break, but before we do, we have to talk about

very important fight outside of the ring, and that is the natural gas wars. As Joe Biden and European leaders slapped on sanctions against the Russians, Moscow countered with their own economic attack. They cut off at first 60% and then 80% of the natural gas that they supply to Europe. And that's a very big deal, because Europe didn't have a backup energy plan. They were desperately reliant on that natural gas to power their electricity plants, to make fertilizer for their food to power their big factories. And as Europe realized what was happening, that their entire economy was at risk of collapsing

as Russia turned off the gas spigot, well, their eyes got as big as Wiley Coyote over a canyon. They knew that they were in trouble. They started turning back on their old coal plants that they'd actually shut off because of climate change activism. They also rented special ships to accept liquefied natural gas from other countries instead of Russia. and they warned their people that a very cold winter was coming if they didn't start conserving.

With that, let's take a break, and when we come back, we'll talk about round two. Who's winning, who's losing, and how you are being directly affected by this war so very far away. We'll be right back. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava. Theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino,

celebrating its 40th anniversary. UN must be 21 to enter. All right, folks, welcome back to the big fight. We are talking, of course, about the six-month anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. How it started, how it's going, and how it is impacting U.S. So to help explain this complicated story, we are turning up our rocky theme music and we are imagining ourselves watching a boxing match. So we've got Ukraine and their coach America in one corner and Russia and their coach China and the other. All right, somebody ring a bell. Let's go to round two.

Since the mid to late spring, the Russians have been punching really hard. They shut down the Black Sea and stopped all of Ukraine's wheat and other agricultural products from going to the global marketplace. Now, you might remember me talking about that. It's the wheat oars. Well, that had a lot of terrible effects. Perhaps most importantly, it put countries all around the world at risk of starvation. Countries like Egypt, Lebanon, and Indonesia, all of whom import 60 to 80 percent of their wheat from places like Ukraine and Russia. And that's not the only punch that Russia landed against the Ukrainians. On the battlefield, they kept making big gains in eastern and southern Ukraine. President Zelensky admitted himself that 50 to 200 soldiers a day in some places were dying,

and some of those soldiers were his best ones. Now, those were hard punches for Ukraine and their coach America, but they stumbled and steadied themselves, and they started punching back. Through the late spring and summer months, Joe Biden has been sending Ukraine ever-increasing amounts of very sophisticated weaponry. You may have heard names like Haimars, which is a rocket artillery system that can reach further and further into Russian-controlled territory. And that weaponry and America's direct assistance has been pretty deadly.

We have killed at least 12 Russian generals, which is an astronomical number. We're taking out a lot of Russia's equipment too, tanks, planes, all sorts of things. Although the exact number and the ultimate impact isn't clear. Still, it is having an effect. Putin is resupplying with very antiquated weapon systems in some cases, and he's paying very big cash salaries and bonuses to mercenaries and contract fighters to replace his big losses. But still, he is standing.

And as that fight continued, two other important things happened that affect you and your family directly. And nobody talks about this. First, we can now confirm that Western special forces and intelligence operatives are on the ground in Ukraine. Now, Joe Biden has long denied that, you know, American boots in Ukraine. But a Ukrainian military official confirmed it in an interview with British press a few weeks back. Canadian press confirmed the same.

And that's a very big deal because it shows that Joe Biden is lying to the American people about the risks of our involvement. It ramps up the very real concern that this conflict spirals toward greater escalation and, God forbid, the involvement of our sons and daughters in war. All right. The second thing that we've learned that nobody talks about is that you are, paying to prop up Europe and their economy. And that payment is when you cut a check to your local utility company. Let me explain. Remember when I compared Europe to Wiley Coyote suddenly realizing he's floating above the canyon floor because Russia is cutting them off from natural gas and they had no backup plan? Well, that shock, that mistake, that's their own fault. They have long been in bed

with Russia and its supply of energy, despite warnings from folks like President Trump and Democrat presidents too. So let me just give you one example. Germany's former chancellor, he's kind of a president of sorts, he was actually a board member of Russia's gas company Gazprom. So the point is that Europe was so sure that Russia would never cut off their energy supplies that they shut down their nuclear plants. They closed coal plants. And instead they put up solar and wind, energy that is unreliable and insufficient to power the whole of an economy. So they are now Wiley Coyote over the canyon, they are scrambling to restart old coal plants and find new supplies of natural gas.

And that is where you come in to save the day. America sends about 10% of our natural gas abroad, mostly to Europe. And it's helping a lot. Germany set a goal of getting their natural gas tanks to 75% full by September 1st. Nobody thought that they could do it, but they did it. We did it. Our oil and natural gas fields did it. But there's a cost.

With less supply in America and the world, consumers are paying ever higher prices for natural gas. And that's bad news for Americans, because many of our electricity plants run off of natural gas. Now, normally, we could switch over to cheaper coal, but because of climate change activists, those coal plants are shut down. So we're stuck. and our electricity bills keep going up, up, up. And if you don't believe me, consider this. Some 20 million people all across this country right now, that's about one in six American homes,

they have fallen behind on their utility bills. It is the worst crisis ever documented by the Energy Trade Group, NAA, DA. Underpinning those numbers, those struggling American households, your neighbors, is a blistering surge in electricity prices propelled by the soaring cost of natural gas. And folks, it's going to get worse. Starting next Wednesday, Russia is shutting down that 20% trickle of natural gas that they're still doing. They're going to cut it all the way down to zero.

Now, energy prices are already up 500% over last year in Europe, and this is only going to make it worse. All right. So that is the end of round two. So what comes next in round three? Well, I'm going to explain Russia's strategy to win this war. They're planning for a knockout punch, but it's not one that you probably expect. That's coming up. Exema is unpredictable.

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Eye problems can occur. Tell your doctor if you have new or worsening eye problems. you should not receive a live vaccine when treated with ebbglis. Before starting Epgless, tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. Ask your doctor about Ebglis.com or call 1800 LilyRX or 1,800 545-9709. Welcome back to the PDB, ladies and gentlemen. We've got a special brief on the big fight in Europe with Ukraine in one corner and Russia in the other. We've covered a lot of ground this morning from Russia's first swing and a miss last February when they first invaded

to America and Europe putting special forces. and intelligence officials on the ground in Ukraine. So how does this fight end, this round three? Well, that is a tough question to answer, but we do have some indications of what it might look like. First, Ukraine's president Zelensky has said that the war's end won't be on the battlefield. The war, he said in late May,

will be bloody and there will be fighting, but it will only definitively end through diplomacy. And he's right. So how does that do, diplomatic process happened? What conditions do we have to see? What sources are saying, both mine and others in the press, is that Putin has a knockout punch. He is going to make sure that Europe freezes this winter. He's going to ensure that they run out of the energy supplies that they need to keep themselves warm, most especially natural gas. And as Europe freezes,

Putin thinks that desperate leaders throughout Europe will say, enough. And then peace talks will start. So, will that happen? Will Russia succeed in its freezing plan? Well, I don't know. But as a thought experiment, what if Putin does freeze Europe? What will Joe Biden do? Will he accept peace talks? Because what he's really doing is accepting a loss. And it means on his watch, America will have been defeated in both Afghanistan and Ukraine. And how will you react to that loss? Biden has sunk over $13.5 billion, your tax dollars, all in that country so very far away. And now, one in six Americans can't pay their electricity bill. How will you feel about this Ukraine adventure if it ends that way? All that you wrestle with those questions this morning, pretty serious stuff to

consider. But I hope that this brief has helped to recap the past six months, all in that strange place so very, very far away. I hope that in capturing the trajectory of this fight, It informs your thinking on what could come next. But I'll tell you, whatever that might be, I give you this promise. I will continue to monitor this fight. Because, you know, it's not really a boxing match, is it? It's about real people suffering here and in Europe and in Ukraine. In fact, it's about real people suffering all around the world.

And that requires the vigilance that I will keep bringing you on the problem. President's daily briefing. And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes your morning special brief. As always, we close out the show, reminding each other of why we are here, talking about our country and our world. It's the creed of every good spy and every smart American. It's from John, chapter 8, verse 32. And you shall know the truth. And the truth shall make you free. Good day.