The President's Daily Brief - December 12th, 2024: Putin’s Humiliation in Syria & Biden’s Historic Migration Surge

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: We'll begin with a look at the fate of Russia's military bases in Syria. With Bashar al-Assad's regime toppled, questions are swirling around the future of the Kremlin's foothold in the Middle East, including critical naval and air bases. A new report from The New York Times reveals that under President Biden, the United States has experienced the largest net migration in its history—averaging 2.4 million people per year during his administration. Plus, the latest on massive Chinese military drills around Taiwan, with satellite images capturing a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels. And in today's Back of the Brief: The massive wildfire sweeping through Malibu, destroying homes and forcing widespread evacuations. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Wake up every morning with the great taste of Blackout coffee. Blackout Coffee is a terrific American family-owned business, and they're completely focused on producing the finest premium coffee. It's fresh-roasted, and it's shipped out within 48 hours of roasting. Go to blackout coffee.com, promo code PDB for 20% off your first-time purchase. It's Thursday, 12 December. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world's stage. All right, let's get briefed.

We'll begin today's show with a look at the fate of Rush. Russia's military bases in Syria. They've got them. With Bashar al-Assad's regime toppled, there are obvious questions about the future of the Kremlin's foothold in the Middle East, including their critical naval and air bases. Later in the show, a new report from the New York Times reveals that under President Biden, the United States, has experienced the largest net migration in its history, averaging 2.4 million people per year during his administration. Plus, we'll bring you the latest on Chinese regime military drills around Taiwan, including satellite images capturing a tense standoff between Chinese and Taiwanese vessels. Ah, because with everything else going on in the world, what we really needed was more tension and potential conflict.

And in today's back of the brief, we'll take a look at the wildfire, sweeping through Malibu, California, destroying homes and forcing widespread evacuations. But first, today's PDB spotlight. As we've discussed here on the PDB, the situation in Syria has become a significant humiliation for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Beyond the loss of hundreds of Russian lives during the Syrian Civil War, it also represents tens of billions of dollars in sunk costs. Adding to this, loss of face internationally, the Kremlin must now deal with a pressing practical issue, what to do about its military assets currently stationed in Syrian territory.

As of Wednesday, four days since the fall of Putin's ally Assad, now living in Moscow under Putin's protection, Russian forces remained stranded at their Syrian bases, despite rumors that they were engaged in a hasty retreat. Analysts say such an evacuation would be easy to spot, and that Russia would be loath to give up their military foothed in Syria, which serves as their most strategically important outpost in the Middle East. Russia has two military bases in Syria, along the country's, Mediterranean coast, a massive naval basin Tardis, and then airbase in the port city of Latakia. The base at Tardis is of particular importance, providing Russia with their only access point to the Mediterranean Sea. It's been used to conduct naval exercises, station warships, and at times

host nuclear submarines, according to a report from Business Insider. Now, due to where they are geographically situated, the bases also function as the main transit hub for military assets into African countries, where Russia has been working in recent years to undermine Western influence. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said that if the bases fall, it will, quote, likely disrupt Russian logistics, resupply efforts at Africa core rotations, particularly weakening Russia's operations and power projection in Libya and sub-Saharan Africa, end quote. But with the Syrian Islamist rebels in full control of the Latakia province, where both bases are situated, officials in Moscow are left with just two options,

tuck tail and run or try to find a new partner in the regime that follows Assad. Reports suggest that Putin is pursuing the latter strategy, while Russian state media claimed that Moscow had secured a deal with the rebels to protect the bases as part of a broader agreement that allowed Assad and his family to flee to Moscow over the weekend. There's no evidence to support such claims. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said earlier this week that efforts, are underway to, quote, establish contact in Syria with those capable of ensuring the security of military bases, end quote. For now, however, Moscow is taking a cautious approach, and with good

reason, during their most intense days of the Syrian Civil War, Russian forces engaged in brutal bombing campaigns that indiscriminately targeted civilian sites while helping Assad turn much of Aleppo to dust back in 2016. Given their history in the country, Moscow is likely concerned that the rebels could turn on Russian forces to exact revenge. Satellite images reveal that Moscow has moved their warships out of the Tartis base for the time being, stationing them roughly 10 miles off the coast. But most personnel reportedly remain on site. Meanwhile, satellite images of Russia's air base also show that most of the Kremlin's equipment,

including their jets and helicopters, have not been moved. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War said Russia is likely trying to delay a total evacuation, while conditions in Syria remain uncertain, holding out hope that they can strike a long-term deal with the transitional government to maintain their regional foothold. Well, that seems like a tricky negotiation. Hey, Islamist rebels, I know we backed your arch enemy for decades and helped him in his various campaigns to kill Syrians and put down rebellion, but come on, that was in the past. Let's be friends, end quote. Yeah, that could be tough. As a reminder, Earlier this week, the rebels named Mohamed al-Bashir, who previously ran parts of northern Syria

on behalf of the rebels as the new caretaker prime minister, but he's only expected to serve in the position until March when the rebels hope to establish a more permanent government. Whether or not the new Syrian government will have any interest in a relationship with Moscow, well, that remains unclear, of course, but it's worth noting that the rebels have not yet attacked the bases, despite seizing much of Iran's diplomatic and military outposts suggesting that they may be open to striking a bargain with Russia, as bizarre as that may seem. All right, coming up next, a new report reveals record-breaking U.S. migration under President Biden. Plus, the latest on massive Chinese military drills and a tense standoff near Taiwan

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Bring a date, your squad, or even your mom. Book direct at choiceotails.com. Welcome back to the PDB. The latest report card on the podcast. Biden administration's handling of the border crisis is in. Now, even legacy media outlets that have long downplayed President Biden's record on immigration are taking notice. According to an exclusive analysis by the New York Times, President Biden has presided over the largest immigration surge in U.S. history, even surpassing the great migration boom of the late 1800s and early 1900s. Their review of

data from the Congressional Budget Office showed annual net migration averaged roughly two point 0.4 million people from 2021 to 2023, with total net migration over Biden's four years, that is the number of people entering the country minus the number of people leaving it, expected to exceed 8 million. And that, of course, doesn't include the known godaways, which that number could be in the millions, those who entered without encountering law enforcement. To put it in context, annual net migration has reportedly never before been close to 2 million for an extended period of time. We should stress that the New York Times analysis includes both legal and illegal immigration,

though illegal immigration accounts for roughly 60% of the inflows. As a result, the percentage of the U.S. population that was born in a foreign country has soared under Biden to new highs from 13.6% in 2020 to 15.2% in 2023, and that number has continued to climb over the past 18 months. For context, the previous record high of 14.8% occurred all the way back in 1890. I believe that was President Biden's first term. While the Biden administration has regularly claimed the surge of illegal migrants to the U.S. was largely due to geopolitical unrest outside of his control. Recent numbers, well, they tell a different story. As you may recall, President Biden decided to crack down on asylum claims at the

beginning of the summer, during the campaign season, facing mounting on popularity among the American public on the issue, and the U.S. has since seen a marked decline in illegal migrant encounters at the southern borders. So, it turns out that when you actually do something about border security, you can make a difference. Interesting. The data left the New York Times to conclude that the record influx under President Biden was primarily caused by the expansive and welcoming immigration policies that his administration championed over the past four years. These include his mass parole program, which allowed migrants from select countries who pass a background screening, and we've talked about how thorough those background screenings are before here on the PDB,

to fly directly to the U.S. and be released with work permits and authorization to remain in the country for two years. The White House also carried out what is essentially a mass amnesty program, quietly dismissing asylum cases and deportation orders for years, claiming the migrants did not have criminal records and posed no national security threat. There are a frankly, to many Biden-era immigration programs to name, but taken together, they've directly resulted in the influx of millions of migrants over the past four years. The Biden administration also rolled back most of the Trump-era immigration policies, further catalyzing the historic surge. Nearly three million illegal border crossings have been registered in the 2024 fiscal year,

three million, the second most in history behind, oh, 2023. Since Biden's term began in 2021, a record 10.8 million migrants have been apprehended at the border, with roughly 85% being released into the U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, of course, made immigration a centerpiece of his presidential campaign and has vowed a large-scale crackdown in a program of mass deportation focused on illegal migrants with criminal records when he returns to office in January. Okay, turning from the U.S. border problem to the Taiwan Strait, where China's largest maritime drills and decades continue. Taiwan's Defense Ministry reports an alarming increase in naval and aerial operations, raising serious concerns about the island's security. Over a span of 24 hours,

Taiwan's Defense Ministry detected 53 People's Liberation Army or PLA aircraft, 11 PLA Navy vessels, and eight official ships operating near its territory. Among these, 23 aircraft crossed into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone, which, for background, begins where sovereign airspace ends, violating the median line, that's an unofficial border separating the two countries, in the self-governing islands north, southwest, and east. Taiwanese officials confirmed active monitoring in response to the increased Chinese activity. Now, since Tuesday, Taiwanese officials reported roughly 90 Chinese vessels along the first island chain, which stretches from Okinawa to Taiwan and the Philippines. This coordinated effort,

marks the largest deployment in nearly three decades. What are they up to? The drills, which Taiwanese officials noted required extensive preparation, reportedly took 70 days to organize and proceeded despite rough sea conditions. Satellite imagery from the European Space Agency underscores an extensive mobilization of naval and aerial forces, emphasizing the sheer magnitude of the war games. Taiwan's foreign ministry condemned the actions, accusing Beijing of being a, quote, troublemaker. Oh, that's a good word. They're a troublemaker. And demanding an immediate halt to activities that threaten regional peace. A spokeswoman for China's foreign ministry pointed the finger back at Taiwan and its cooperation with, quote, external actors for fueling instability. It's all your fault, Taiwan, stating, quote, harming the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait is the work of Taiwan independence separatist forces.

Washington respects concern over the developments with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, reaffirming America's commitment to Taiwan's defense capabilities, stating, quote, we've remained steadfast in maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan's strait, warning against unilateral changes to the status quo. According to AFP news, a senior Taiwanese security official suggests that the timing of China's action is strategic coinciding with the lead-up to President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration The official, believes in Beijing, aims to assert dominance within the first island chain, establish strategic deterrence, and, quote, draw a red line for the incoming administration.

All right. Coming up in the back of the brief, we'll have the latest on the devastating wildfire rampaging through Malibu, California. We'll be right back. Ryan Reynolds here from MintMobil, the message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world. stop. With Mint, you can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments, but that's weird. Okay, one judgment. Anyway, give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan,

equivalent to $15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. Seeful terms at mintmobile.com. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline, is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story. Subscribe now at Bloomberg.com. In today's back of the brief, a fast spreading wildfire in Malibu, California, has forced thousands of residents to evacuate as it destroys homes and explodes into a 4,000 acre and

Furno. Known as the Franklin Fire. It began as a small five-acre spark on Monday night, but quickly surged, devouring land at an astonishing speed at its peak, engulfing through more than five football fields per minute. According to the New York Times, the Franklin Fire is fueled by powerful wind gusts reaching up to 50 miles per hour and extremely low humidity. The blaze has already destroyed seven structures and forced over 20,000 residents to flee their homes. Cal Fire reports more than 8,000 homes and businesses remain at risk. In a proactive move, utility companies have cut power to tens of thousands of Southern Californians to prevent additional fires sparked by damaged electrical lines. And that's precaution, born from grim lessons, frankly, learned during

the state's past wildfire seasons. Satellite imagery from MaxR Technologies shows firefighting aircraft working to protect homes as ground crews work to carve out control lines. About 800 firefighters are on the scene, and containment efforts have inched up to 7% as of Wednesday. It's a small but promising sign of progress. Now, there's some hope on the horizon as weather conditions may soon shift. Red flag warnings, signaling increased fire risk from low humidity and high winds, are expected to expire, potentially easing the fight against the flames. California's governor, Gavin Newsom, announced federal aid through FEMA to strengthen the firefighting effort, while local officials in Malibu confirmed that so far

there have been no injuries or fatalities reported. The cause of the Franklin fire, well, it remains under investigation. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Thursday, 12 December. If you have any questions or comments, please, and I'm serious about this, reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And as I'm sure you've heard from friends and family, to listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief By visiting PDB Premium.com, it couldn't be any simpler.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool.