The President's Daily Brief - December 12th, 2025: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Hit Again & NATO Sounds The Alarm

Episode Date: December 12, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Ukraine steps up its campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet as a new naval-drone strike damages another tanker and deepens the financial pressure on Moscow’s wartime oil revenues. A dramatic, clandestine rescue at sea: how a private American team spent 15 hours getting Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado out of the country and safely en route to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. NATO’s chief issues a stark warning, urging member states to prepare for the possibility that Russia could target the alliance within five years. And in today’s Back of the Brief — U.S. bombers and Japanese fighter jets fly a show-of-force mission over the Sea of Japan after China and Russia conduct joint drills in the region. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.  Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Tax Relief Advocates: End your tax nightmare today by visiting us online at https://TRA.com/podcast  Nobl Travel: Protect your gear and travel smarter—NOBL’s zipper-free carry-on is up to 58% off at https://NOBLTravel.com Ridge Wallet: Upgrade your wallet today! Get 47% Off @Ridge with code PDB at https://www.Ridge.com/PDB #Ridgepod Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Olivia Rodriguez, the unraveled tour, live across North America, with special guests. Get tickets Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com. Looking to diversify and protect your hard-earned assets, well, schedule a free consultation with the Birch Gold Group. They're the precious metals specialists. Just text BDB to the number 989-89898, and you'll receive a free, no-obligation information kit,

and you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to 989-89898. It's Friday, the 12th of December. Look at that. We are racing through this month towards Christmas. Welcome to the president's daily brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed.

First up, Ukraine keeps a pressure on Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers. A fresh naval drone strike hits another tanker, tightening the squeeze on Moscow's wartime oil profits. We'll explain what happened. Later in the show, an extraordinary extraction operation at sea. We'll tell you how a private American team pulled off a secret 15-hour mission to get Maria Corina Gmachado out of Venezuela and safely on her way to accept the Nobel Peace Prize. Plus, a warning from NATO's chief. Mark Ruta tells member states, It's a brace for the possibility that Russia could target the alliance within five years.

And in today's back of the brief, a major show of force in East Asia. U.S. nuclear-capable bombers joined Japanese fighter jets over the sea of Japan after China and Russia conducted their own drills nearby. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We've been tracking Ukraine's campaign against Russia's so-called shadow fleet, that network of tankers Moscow uses to quietly move sanctioned oil around the world. And this week, there's another major development.

Ukraine has crippled yet another one of those vessels, the third tanker hit in recent weeks. According to reports, Ukraine's security service, that would be the SBU, launched the attack in the Black Sea, using its now-famous sea-baby naval drones. If you haven't seen the video, here's what it shows, a drone,

racing over choppy water at high speed, Its camera locked forward as it closes in on a large tanker in the distance. It quickly closes the gap, and then the explosion as the drone hits the target. Ukrainian officials say the strike hit exactly where they intended, damaging the tanker and forcing it out of service. The vessel targeted is part of Russia's shadow fleet, those tankers operating under obscure ownership, questionable registration, and often with their tracking systems turned off. They exist for one purpose, to move Russian oil in ways that evade Western sanctions. And that shipment network is critical for Moscow.

It's a financial lifeline. Without it, the Kremlin has a much harder time, keeping oil flowing, and bringing in revenue, and ultimately funding its war. This latest strike follows two similar attacks over the past few weeks that we covered here, meaning Ukraine has now damaged or disabled at least three of these covert tankers. and key strategy is becoming clearer. They're hitting the ships that keep Russia's economy running. And the effects, well, they're beginning to show. A new report from the Financial Times highlights one of the most immediate consequences.

That would be insurance rates in the Black Sea have now tripled, tripled, just in the last month. That's an extraordinary spike, and is directly tied to Ukraine's strikes on these tankers and on Russian port infrastructure. Shipping insurers are reassessing their risk models because, Several of these ships are now proven targets, so premiums are soaring, especially for vessels with unclear ownership or ones traveling close to Russian ports. Some insurers are reportedly walking away from the region altogether, and when you're running a sanctions-eating network like the Russians are that already relies on unusual financing, undisclosed operators, and older vessels, adding massive insurance costs makes every voyage

significantly more expensive. And it doesn't stop there because the financial pressure is now showing up in Russia's broader energy revenues. A new analysis from Goldman Sachs, reported by Business Insider, finds that while Russia is still managing to export large quantities of oil, roughly the same volumes as before the latest U.S. Treasury crackdowns, the money it earns from those exports, has fallen sharply. The discounts that Russia has been forced to offer, combined with soaring logistics and insurance costs, are cutting deeply into Moscow's profit margins. In simple terms, they're still selling plenty of oil, but they're making far less money doing it.

Goldman's analysts point out that Russia's overall energy profits have dropped meaningfully at a time when the Kremlin desperately needs cash to sustain its military operations in Ukraine. And these hits to the shadow fleet, combined with the rising cost and risk of moving Russian oil, appear to be contributing to that financial squeeze. It's fairly straightforward. Ukraine strikes the tankers, insurers jack up prices,

shippers hesitate or demand higher premiums, Russia must offer steeper discounts to keep the oil flowing, and little by little, the Kremlin's wartime revenues shrink. This is asymmetric warfare at sea, targeting the economic arteries instead of the warships, and it's something that will continue tracking. Coming up next, how a private American team pulled off a secret 15,

our sea rescue of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, and why NATO's chief is warning allies that Russia could target the alliance within five years. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, we've all seen those scary ads, right, about owing money to the IRS, basically trying to frighten you into calling. Well, let me tell you about a different kind of business. They're called tax relief advocates. And if you owe the IRS, whether it's $5,000 or or $50,000 or $500,000, TRA tax relief advocates has solutions to help resolve your tax problems. The good news is that you can get help anytime by visiting t r.com,

and TRA could reduce or even eliminate what you owe. Their team is passionate about helping individuals and businesses fix IRS issues, and they have over a thousand five-star reviews on Google and an A-plus rating with a Better Business Bureau. Look, you no longer need to be afraid of the IRS. generous programs are available to give you a fresh start. And your tax troubles today by visiting t r a.com. That's t r a dot com.

Tax relief advocates, real solutions for real people. Yamava Resort and Casino at San Manuel is California's number one entertainment destination for today's superstars. Catch the Jonas Brothers return to the Yamava theater stage on April 30th, the powerful vocals of Demi Lovato on May 17th, and the signature Southern Country Rock of Eric. Church on July 19th. Tickets on sale now at yamava Theater.com, only at Yamava Resort and Casino, celebrating its 40th anniversary. You win? Must be 21 to enter. Welcome back to the BDP. A new twist in the ongoing saga surrounding Venezuela. Almost 16 hours under the cover of rough nighttime seas,

a private American rescue team extracted Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from the country to reunite her with family and to collect. Nobel Peace Prize in Norway. The man leading the team was Brian Stern, a U.S. Special Forces veteran, and the head of the Grey Bull Rescue Foundation. As he tells it, the waves were high enough to throw off radar, useful for staying hidden, of course, but punishing for everyone on board. He told CBS News, quote, no one was enjoying that ride, especially Maria. The water may have been, quote, ideal for us, but it was also, quote, certainly not what you would want to be on. Machado's team confirmed CBS News that the mission began Tuesday after she set foot in Norway yesterday.

Stern said that it became one of the toughest missions he's ever run, notable, given the Gray Bull has orchestrated hundreds over the years, and the timing made everything even riskier. As we've discussed here on the PDB, Machado had been hiding for nearly a year, trying to stay ahead of Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro's regime, which has brutally cracked down, of course, on protesters advocating for his ouster. The optics were even more challenging, as his regime has taken on an especially defensive posture as the U.S. steps up its military presence offshore. Stern said, quote, she has a very large target on her back.

He pointed to her visibility across Venezuela, noting billboards with her face all over the country and supporters holding demonstrations in her name. Her profile, he said, made the operation uniquely dangerous. Gray Bull took charge of both the land and maritime phases, though Stern and, wouldn't go into detail about the ground portion, saying it would put people still in Venezuela at risk. Once Machado was safely on the move, the team got her to the coastline and onto a boat, bound for a rendezvous point somewhere in the Caribbean. That's where Stern met her for what turned into the riskiest portion of the operation, an hours-long run on dark seas with almost no visibility,

ending at the location where she would later board a flight to Oslo. By then, everyone, of course, was soaked, cold, and exhausted. As for the makeup of the team involved in the mission, it consisted of about, reportedly, two dozen people, with many others supporting behind the scenes through translation and logistics, some without even realizing that they were part of it. The plan itself reportedly came together in just four days.

Stern also made a point of saying the mission was funded entirely by private donors. He said, quote, the U.S. government did not contribute a single penny to the operation, though he acknowledged quote, unofficial collaboration with the military to avoid any accidental encounters at sea. As for rumors circulating about the mission, Stern pushed back that he was a private extraction specialist supposedly hired by the Trump administration who met Machado in Curacao.

Now, I want to point out that the island had become the focus of speculation since the mission's success, mainly because it's a common transit point for Venezuelan dissidents and hosts U.S. security operations, making it a believable Caribbean waypoint for an escape. But Stern said none of it was true. He said, quote, I've never been hired by Trump. I met up with Machado somewhere else. And when it came to Machado arriving in Norway to accept her Nobel Peace Prize, well, she was a bit too late to attend the ceremony, but her daughter accepted the award on her behalf. Despite all this effort, Machado says she wants to return to Venezuela to continue opposition efforts on the ground. Stern, didn't sugarcoat his response of admiration for her, saying, quote, they call her the Iron Lady

for a reason. I told her, don't go back, end quote. So, Machado's potential return to Venezuela promises to be anything but smooth sailing. Okay, shifting gears. NATO Secretary General Mark Ruta delivered what sounded less like a policy update and more like an alarm, warning allies that Russia could be ready to strike NATO territory within five years. Ruta stressed that the alliance is nowhere near the level of readiness that Moscow's trajectory now demands. Speaking in Berlin this week, Ruta didn't sugarcoat his message. He made clear to those gathered and effectively to the entire alliance that Europe is

already in the danger zone. The Secretary General said, quote, we are Russia's next target, and we are already in harm's way, arguing that the alliance. must prepare for a scale of conflict that has not been seen since the eras their grandparents lived through. In his view, Russia's accelerated war economy isn't an abstract warning. It's a countdown. And that countdown is why Ruta keeps drilling down on urgency. Yes, he welcomes the pledge by NATO members to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, he said, but he admits frustration with that pace and timeline. Ruta said the alliance simply doesn't have that kind of time,

and pushed for a full shift to, quote, wartime mindset. He warned that too many capitals are slipping into quiet complacency. Ruta said, quote, this is not the time for self-congratulation. Too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now, end quote. In an effort to further drive home why he believes Europe cannot afford delay, Ruta pointed to the staggering casualties that Russia has already suffered.

He claimed more than one million Russian troops have been killed since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a figure we've previously discussed here on the PDB, which is a cost that Ruta said just shows how far Russian President Putin is willing to go to achieve his war aims. The Secretary General said, quote, Putin is paying for his pride with the blood of his own people, and if he's prepared to sacrifice ordinary Russians in this way, what is he prepared to do to us? Now, I want to point out that Ruta's warning didn't stop at Moscow's doorstep. He set his sights on China as well, saying outright that Russia's war machine would collapse without Beijing's support. Ruta said, quote, China is Russia's lifeline. Without China's

support, Russia could not continue to wage this war, pointing to the roughly 80% of critical electronic components in Russian drones and weapon systems that originate in China. Well, I can't spot the lie in Ruta's comments regarding China. Taken together, Ruta's message is unmistakable. NATO's window to prepare for war, he says, is shrinking. Russia's threat trajectory is rising, and the cost of underestimating Moscow now would be far greater than anything Europe has faced in generations. Okay, coming up in the back of the brief, Tokyo reveals that U.S. bombers flew alongside Japanese jets in a coordinated show of strength, following joint China-Russia military exercises in the same region. I'll have those details when we come back.

Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, BDB listeners know that I am constantly on the road. I'm always traveling, it seems. I know, I know. You've probably noticed by all the different hotel room backdrops on the PDB. So I've become a bit of an expert on airports and luggage. And I'd like to tell you about a great company out there that's designing and selling terrific luggage. And that would be Noble travel, NOBL, Noble travel.

Okay, let me give you a scenario. Picture this. You're in the line at airport security. I know that's a happy place. You've with me so far. You got a coffee cup in your hand, maybe. The coffee's sloshing around. You got a phone that's almost out of juice, right?

It's dying. Now you're digging for your laptop to try to get it out of your suitcase or your rollerboard and put it in the x-ray bin at TSA security while the folks in line behind you are getting increasingly annoyed. Now, we all know. Standard luggage is basically just a box on wheels, right? And think about how often those rollerboards and suitcases break, right? Wheels fall off or zippers break. Enter the noble all-in-one carry-on.

It's got a flip-out cup holder to keep your drink secure, which is a terrific idea. It's got the built-in charger, which means you never run out of juice for your phone. The front laptop pocket is easy access for TSA. There's 360-degree wheels that glide like a dream, and there are zero zippers to worry about, right? It uses secure latches that shut with ease and are great for security. I travel with one of these, and I've got to tell you something, it's a terrific piece of luggage. It looks sharp and it's built like it'll survive a war zone. Nobles, the number one rated luggage on Trust Pilot, which is important, with a lifetime warranty

and get this, a 100-day return policy. And right now, they're running their biggest sale ever, up to 58% off site-wide. Just go to nobletravel.com, that's N-O-B-L, nobletravel.com before they sell out. And when you check out, they'll ask you how you heard about Noble. Do me a favor. Tell them the PDB sent you. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message from our friends at Ridge Wallets. Now, before I switched to a Ridge Wallet, I was carrying around one of those giant leather bricks for a wallet. You know what I'm talking about, right?

They're bulky, falling apart and honestly hurts your back every time you sit on it, right? Switching to Ridge Wallets was a game changer. And now, Ridge just made their best wallet even better with Ridge 2.0. It's slimmer, it's 10% lighter, and it even includes air tag attachments. Made from premium materials like aluminum, titanium, and carbon fiber, it holds up to 12 cards and cash, just in case you're one of those few folks that still carries cash. With over 50 styles to choose from, it's perfect for holiday gifting. And for a limited time, Ridge is having their huge holiday sale. Just head on over to Ridge.com, that's RIDGE, Ridge.

com, to get up to 47% off your order. And it's by far the biggest discount they've given all year. That's Ridge.com for up to 40% percent. 7% off your order during their biggest sale of the year. And after you purchase, well, they'll ask you how you heard about them. Do me a favor. Tell them the PDB sent you. Now's the time to save on new carpet at the Home Depot. Receive 10% off your total carpet project and 12 months special financing. Plus, we'll measure your space for free. Choose from a variety of stylish, on-trend options fit for everyday life with life-proof, life-proof with pet-proof technology,

home decorators collection, and traffic master carpets. Save 10, percent and get 12 months special financing. Now at the Home Depot. Offer valid April 16th through May 3rd, 2006. Exclusions apply for licenses. See Home Depot.com slash license numbers. Hey, you, feeling hungry? Run the Denny's four.

The new attorney on a Denny's slamming meal deals. And see the new Masters of the Universe movie, only in theaters June 5th. In today's back of the brief, there's a new round of power projection happening in East Asia, this time from Washington and Tokyo. In a major show of force, Japan's defense ministry confirmed that two U.S. nuclear-capable B-52 strategic bombers flew a coordinated mission over the sea of Japan on Wednesday, joined by a mix of Japanese F-35 and F-15 fighter jets. The timing wasn't incidental, as the exercise came just one day after China and Russia carried out their own high-profile joint bomber patrols over the East China Sea and Western Pacific. That's according to a report from Reuters. Japanese officials made little attempt to downplay the symbolism. The drill, they said, was designed a signal that the U.S.-Japan alliance remains prepared to respond

to, quote, any unilateral attempt to change the status quo by force. Now, that's a phrase that Tokyo normally reserves for Beijing's activities around Taiwan. Coming from Japan's defense ministry, typically cautious in its public messaging, the language was unusually pointed. China has been steadily escalating their rhetoric, and military activity in the region over the past month, with, of course, assistance from Russia, and Tokyo's patience appears to have worn thin. As I mentioned, Chinese and Russian strategic bombers conducted coordinated patrols over the East China Sea and Western Pacific on Tuesday,

breaching air defense identification zones and prompting both Japan and South Korea to scramble jets. And only three days before the drill, Japan publicly confirmed that Chinese aircraft involved in a separate military exercise, had locked their fire control radar onto Japanese fighter jets, one of the more provocative acts that militaries can commit, short of pulling the trigger. Tokyo lodged a formal protest on Sunday, saying the radar incident was completely unacceptable and risked triggering a serious incident. The U.S. also weighed in, saying the Chinese action was not conducive to regional peace and stability. Now, there's a diplomatic sentence for you, But unsurprisingly, China denied the accusations.

Well, that is unsurprising, and instead accused Japan of endangering its air operations. As we reported earlier this week, a Chinese military-linked account has since put out a propaganda video showing nuclear missiles raining down on Japan, alongside a message threatening to, quote, bury this demon beneath the Pacific forever, end quote, not exactly subtle messaging. Taken together, the sequence of events since Saturday, suggests China is intent on inflaming regional tensions, particularly as they attempt to reassert their claim over Taiwan. China's current spat with Tokyo, after all, ignited in November, after Japan's new prime minister bluntly rebukes China's behavior in the region and reaffirmed their support for Taiwan. Ever since, China has been ratcheting up their military activity while attempting to frame Tokyo as a resurgent imperial threat. Against that backdrop, Wednesday's B-52 deployment served a dual purpose for the U.S., reassuring regional allies of America's support and reminding adversaries that Washington can still surge strategic assets into the Western Pacific on short notice. For Japan, Wednesday's drill reinforced a broader shift in its defense posture, one that leans more openly into deterrence and closer coordination with U.S. forces. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Friday, the 12th of December. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And remember, if you'd like an ad-free PDB experience, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDB Premium.com.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with a PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe. Stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying.

It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistants' assistants to switch you to MintMobile today. I'm told it's super easy to do at mintmobile.com slash switch. Up front payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required.

Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available, Taxes and fees extra. Seeful terms at mintmobile.com.