The President's Daily Brief - December 13th, 2024: Hamas Yields To Israeli Ceasefire Demands & Trump's Vision For Ending The Ukraine War

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief:     We'll begin with an update on the war in Gaza, as Hamas reportedly yields to two of Israel’s key demands for a ceasefire, reigniting hopes that a deal can be struck to pause the fighting and rescue the remaining hostages before the year ends. Later in the show, president-elect Donald Trump has begun to outline his plans for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end, advocating a strategy that would see Europe shoulder most of the financial and military burden of supporting Kyiv over the long term. Plus, we’ll bring you the latest news on the mystery drones spooking residents across New Jersey, as the White House downplays any potential threats to national security. In our 'Back of the Brief' segment, the Biden administration quietly renewed a controversial sanctions waiver granting Iran access to some $10 billion in electricity payments from Iraq. We’ll discuss the implications, as concerns mount that Iran will use the funds to sponsor terrorism. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.     YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Blackout Coffee: https://www.blackoutcoffee.com/PDB Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed. We'll begin with an update on the war in Gaza, as Hamas reportedly concedes to two of Israel's key demands for a ceasefire, reigniting hopes that a deal can be struck to pause the fighting and return the remaining hostages before the year ends. Later in the show, President-elect Trump has begun to outline his plans for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end, advocating a strategy that would see Europe shouldered most of the burden of supporting Kiev over the long term. Plus, we'll bring you the latest news on the mystery drones appearing in the skies over New Jersey as the White House downplays any potential threats to national security.

There's nothing to see here, folks, just some drones that we apparently can't identify. And in today's back of the brief, the Biden administration quietly renewed a controversial sanctions waiver granting Iran access to some $10 billion from Iraq. We'll discuss the implications as concerns mount that Iran will use. those funds to free up other money to sponsor terrorism. I know, I know. The Iranian regime and its IRGC sponsoring terrorism seems so unlikely. But first, today's PDB spotlight. We'll begin in the Middle East, where hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza have been rekindled as Hamas makes some major concessions to Israel regarding a potential deal. According to sources who

spoke exclusively with the Wall Street Journal, the Iranian-backed terror group has yielded to two of Israel's key demands for a ceasefire, agreeing to allow Israeli forces to remain in Gaza temporarily once the fighting stops, and promising not to run or have a presence on the Palestinian side of the Rafa crossing between Egypt and Gaza. While we've seen optimistic reports that Hamas was close to a ceasefire deal countless times before, only for negotiations to break down, this moment, well, it appears to be different. In addition to the concessions to Israel, Hamas has, for the first, first time handed over to mediators in Qatar and Egypt a list of hostages who it would release under the proposed ceasefire pact, a list that reportedly includes U.S. citizens, women,

the elderly, and captives with medical conditions. The terror group has also said they will turn over the bodies of five slain hostages. Chumas has long resisted Israel's ceasefire conditions, but appears to have had a change of heart after Israel struck a fragile truce deal with their Lebanese allies, Chazbalah, at the beginning of the beginning of the war. of the month. Since then, the Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria has fallen, further isolating Hamas from the Mullah's once powerful axis of resistance. Faced with the prospect of once again feeling Israel's full focus and wrath, the terror group now seems eager to get a deal over the finish line, if, frankly, for no other reason than self-preservation. The latest proposal reportedly involves a

60-day ceasefire that would see the release of up to 30 hostages in exchange for Israel freeing an unknown number of Palestinian prisoners and allowing humanitarian aid to freely flow into the battered enclave. The negotiations accelerated this week after an Israeli delegation met with mediators in Cairo on Tuesday, just days after representatives for Hamas were in the Egyptian capital. As part of the proposal, Hamas will now accept Israeli forces temporarily staying in the Strategic Philadelphia Corridor, separating Gaza from Egypt, along with the Nazareem Corridor, dividing northern and southern Gaza. Leaders in Jerusalem have long argued that these areas must be held by Israel, at least in the

immediate term, to prevent Hamas from reconstituting and smuggling in more weapons across their border with Egypt. Furthermore, Hamas will agree to not deploy their fighters in the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing in southern Gaza. But negotiations are ongoing, with delegates from Israel pushing for the release of more hostages in the initial phase of the ceasefire, potentially in exchange for gradually withdrawing their forces from the Philadelphia corridor once a truce is in place. As a reminder, Israeli officials say there are 96 hostages remaining in Gaza, though at least 30 are thought to be deceased. But Hamas reportedly does not know where all the hostages are located. Arab mediators have proposed granting Hamas more time

to establish the whereabouts of those hostages and their state of health once a ceasefire is underway. Now, I don't know, maybe it's just me, but you'd think that's something they would have been doing already over the past many months. Another outstanding question is whether the truce will be temporary or become permanent, though there's no clarity on that aspect of the negotiations at this time. Arab mediators, however, have said that they think it will be difficult for Israel to restart operations in Gaza after a ceasefire is reached due to diplomatic pressure from their allies. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been tight-lipped about the ongoing talks this week, but U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, never won to be tight-lipped, met with the prime minister on Thursday and declared that Netanyahu was, quote, ready to do a deal. At a press conference in Tel Aviv on Thursday, Sullivan said both sides are close, and it's now

only a matter of bridging the final divides. Given how many times that negotiations in the past have failed, despite repeated optimistic statements from Biden administration officials, well, And you'd think perhaps of the White House by now would simply keep their piehole shut and let the negotiations happen. Sullivan added that he would be traveling back to Doha and Cairo in the coming days to speak with mediators, adding that his goal is to, quote, close this deal this month, not later, end quote. All right. Coming up next, President-elect Donald Trump outlines his plans for bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. And the White House downplays any potential threats to national security or the public.

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we're beginning to learn more details about President-elect Trump's proposed strategy to end the nearly three-year conflict. At a 7 December meeting in Paris with Ukrainian President Zelensky and French President Macron, Trump reportedly laid out his broad vision. It appears that the president-elect

wants Europe to shoulder the main financial and military responsibilities, for overseeing a halt to Russian hostilities, advocating for Europe to lead a coalition of ground troops to secure and support a ceasefire with Moscow. While Trump opposes Kiev's immediate NATO membership, he's pushing reportedly for a strong, well-equipped Ukraine that can stand on its own. Notably, the plan keeps American troops out of the equation, but leaves the door open for indirect American support. European leaders, particularly Macron, have cautiously warmed to the idea of taking on more responsibility for the region's security.

Macron emphasized this during a press conference in Poland on Thursday, stating, quote, there is no security in Europe without the Europeans, end quote. Now, this isn't the first time that Francis Macron has backed the idea of deploying European troops to Ukraine. Back in February, the French president made a similar suggestion after discussions with other European leaders in Paris, although those talks centered on potentially deploying troops in a combat capacity. The idea went nowhere at the time, with NATO dismissing it outright. Now, Trump's call for a ceasefire has reignited those conversations, though any deployment would take the form of a peacekeeping coalition, not a formal NATO operation.

But, frankly, there's no shortage of challenges, obviously. According to the Wall Street Journal, fears of Russian retaliation, logistical headaches, and divisions within Europe all cast doubt. on the feasibility of a unified approach. As an example, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wasted no time in voicing his opposition after meeting with Macron on Thursday. Rejecting the idea of Polish troops in Ukraine, Tusk stated, quote, decisions concerning Poland will be made in Warsaw and only in Warsaw. Tusk's statement underscores a broader reluctance across Europe to rally behind Trump's framework. For Keev, the stakes, well, obviously they're enormous. A ceasefire would mean

seating around 20% of its territory based on current front lines. That's a deeply contentious concession. Zelensky, who as long champion NATO membership, has recently hinted he might be open to peace talks if Ukraine is guaranteed a future spot in the alliance. It's a sign of the immense pressure to find a resolution, especially with Trump's incoming administration, prioritizing an expedited end to the war. Still, the Biden administration and European allies warned that a ceasefire could backfire, giving Russia time to regroup and launch new offensives. European governments are also wary of committing troops, fearing that they might be drawn into defending against a Russian breach of any ceasefire. There's also uncertainty about how much support

the U.S. would offer under Trump's administration and whether European nations can muster the political resolve and, of course, the resources needed for such a mission. This comes after Trump, in an interview with time on Thursday, blasted the Biden administration's decision to give Ukraine weapons that can reach deeper into Russia. So whether Trump's plan will lead to a breakthrough, obviously that's a open question, but for now, the viability of his approach is probably set to dominate the debate in the weeks leading up to his inauguration. Okay, I want to turn to the U.S., where bipartisan frustration is mounting as unidentified drones described as more sophisticated than hobbyists or commercial equipment, continue to hover over New Jersey, sparking public

concern and official denials regarding their origin and intent. As we've been tracking here on the PDB, unidentified drones have been seen over residential areas and sensitive sites over the past month throughout the Garden State. Despite ongoing investigations, answers appear to remain elusive. While federal agencies have downplayed the threat, Republican Representative Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey has doubled down on his claims, alleging that drones could be connected to an Iranian mother ship off the east coast, citing whistleblowers with high security clearances. Speaking to Fox News on Thursday, Van Drew stated, quote, these drones are not hobbyist equipment or commercial drones.

They are far more sophisticated. Van Drew went on to describe sightings of drones entering and exiting the ocean, landing on what he called an unknown platform, stating, quote, we're not being told the truth. end quote. Hmm. The congressman also criticized federal agencies for their inaction, stating, quote, they've been incredibly stupid and incredibly weak with this.

Now, federal officials have strongly pushed back on these claims. Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh stated during a press briefing on Thursday that there is no Iranian ship off the coast of the United States and there's no so-called mothership launching drones toward the United States, end quote. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy echoed these assurances, stating that investment, Investigations by the FBI and Department of Defense uncovered, quote, zero evidence to support Van Drew's claims. Meanwhile, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby addressed reporters on Thursday explaining that Homeland Security, the FBI, and local law enforcement have not

corroborated any reports of drones in restricted airspace. Kirby noted that federal authorities have been reviewing images of the sightings and stated, quote, we have no evidence at this time that these reported sightings pose a national security or public safety threat or have a foreign nexus, end quote. Now, even with these reassurances, federal lawmakers from New Jersey and New York are pressing for answers. In a letter addressed to the Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, and the FAA, a group of U.S. senators called for a briefing on the situation. Their statement emphasized the, quote, potential safety and security risks posed by these drones in civilian areas, and, quote, particularly in light of similar incursions at sensitive U.S. military sites over the past year.

House Speaker Mike Johnson described the situation as a, quote, quandary, and indicated that Congress will receive classified briefings on the matter. It's a quandary. For now, the mystery surrounding these drones remains unresolved. I mean, that is the nature of a quandary, of course. While federal officials maintain there's no evidence of foreign involvement, the growing attention from Congress suggests that the matter isn't going away anytime soon. And I guess I should point out the obvious. The fact that there's no evidence of foreign involvement doesn't mean that there's no foreign involvement. It just means that the authorities have no evidence. There, I win today's PDB statement of the obvious award. All right, coming up in the back of the brief, the Biden administration has quietly renewed a

controversial sanctions waiver granting Iran access to billions of dollars in electricity payments from Iraq. We'll discuss the implications after the break. But, spoiler alert, the implications are that Iraq can keep the lights on, and the Iranian regime pockets billions of dollars. Oh, and today's secret phrase is

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Choice Hotels gets you more of what you value. Comfort in. It's calling your name. Save on the stay. Oh, and free waffles are yours to claim. Book direct at storeshotels.com. In today's back of the brief, it appears that the mullahs of Iran still have a friend in President Biden, whose administration has given them a major financial lifeline, despite their role sponsoring

terrorist groups that have destabilized the Middle East. We learned this week that in the days immediately following Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the Biden administration quietly extended a sanctions waiver that grants the Iranian regime access to billions of dollars in electricity payments from Iraq. More specifically, the waiver permits Iraq to continue purchasing electricity from Iran without incurring penalties from the U.S. for sanctions violations. In turn, It frees up roughly $10 billion in Iraqi payments for Iranian electricity, which are currently being held in escrow accounts in Iraq and Oman. The waiver has been repeatedly extended since 2018, but became a major source of controversy,

of course, following the 7-October attacks last year by Hamas on Israel. Given Iran's role in funding, directing, and arming Hamas, Republicans in Congress questioned why the U.S. was still allowing a regime known as the world's leading sponsor of terrorists. to access such a large sum of cash. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the four-month waiver extension was signed because the administration doesn't want to cut Iraq off from a key source of energy, and he said he's confident that the funds can only be accessed by Iran for humanitarian purposes. Now remember, our secret phrase, money is fungible.

A State Department spokesman confirmed the extension and defended the action, telling reporters, quote, we remain committed to reducing Iran's malign influence in the region. Our viewpoint is that a stable, sovereign, and secure Iraq is critical to these efforts, end quote. Now, while it's true that in theory, in theory, the money can only be used to purchase non-sanctioned products, the extension obviously could free up funds inside Iran allowing the regime to make adjustments in their domestic budget and funnel that money towards their proxy allies, or even to build up their covert nuclear weapons program. But come on, what are the chances of that happening?

The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Representative Michael McCall, slammed the White House for ignoring Congress's obvious concerns. McCall said, quote, the House voted to eliminate these waiver authorities twice. But the Biden administration is still waiving the sanctions, putting more money in the Iranian regime's pockets to fund its terrorist proxies and nuclear weapons program. The U.S. should not be subsidizing Iran's malign activities, end quote. We should note that the time frame of the sanctions extension will overlap with the early months of Trump's second term in office. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday, 13 December.

Now, if you happen to be a superstitious person, just be careful out there. Although, I guess that's good advice to be careful regardless of whether it's Friday the 13th or not. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdb at thefirstt.com. And as you are probably aware, today, well, it is Friday. And Fridays mean the launch of a brand spanking new episode of our highly acclaimed and much-loved weekend show, the PDB Situation Report. New episodes launch every Friday evening at 10 p.m. on the first TV. And, of course, can be watched on our highly acclaimed and much-loved YouTube channel at President's Daily Brief. And, of course, on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast stuff.

This week's guests include the brilliant Brian Carter and the equally brilliant Steve Yates. We'll be examining the fall of Assad, serious future, the impact on the Middle East, rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, and China's ambitions. It's a smorgasbord of timely topics. Plus, I'll be showing you how to make a festive holiday centerpiece out of classified documents. Tune in and learn stuff. I'm Mike Baker. I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Bloomberg follows the money because behind every headline

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