The President's Daily Brief - December 18th, 2024: Turkey Prepares To Invade Syria & Gaza Ceasefire On The Horizon

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border is raising alarms. Ankara's moves signal a potential large-scale incursion into northern Syria—one that could lead to conflict with U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces. Promising developments in ceasefire talks for Gaza, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu heads to Cairo for what’s being described as the final stage of negotiations. The U.S. Treasury imposes new sanctions on North Korea and Russia, targeting Pyongyang’s finances and its military support for Moscow. And in today’s Back of the Brief, a potential political earthquake in Canada—Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be on the verge of resignation. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Patriot Gold: Call 1-888-870-5457 for a free investor guide. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and frankly, that is a lot of years in a row. Go to Patriot Gold Group.com or call 1-888-621-3856 for a free investor guide. It's Wednesday, 18 December. Welcome to the President's Daily Briefs. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. Now, if it sounds like there's a groovy soundtrack in the background, well, there is. Sometimes when you're on the road, try to find a quiet place to record the PDB for you. Well, it can be a little difficult.

All right, let's get briefed. We'll start the show with Turkey's military buildup along the Syrian border. Ankara's moves are raising alarms, of course, of a potential large-scale incursion into northern Syria, one that could put Turkish forces on a collision course with U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters. Later in the show, we'll cover promising developments in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, as Prime Minister Netanyahu heads to Cairo for what's being called the final fight. stage of negotiations. Plus, the U.S. Treasury is hitting North Korea and Russia with new sanctions targeting Pyongyang's finances and its military support for Moscow. And in today's back in the

brief, a potential political earthquake north of the border, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may be on the verge of resignation. But first, today's PDB spotlight with a little background music. We'll begin in Syria, where it appears the law in widespread violence, since the rebel coalition overthrew former Strongman Assad may be short-lived. A military build-up by Turkey and its militia allies along their southern border with Syria is raising fears in Washington that a new theater of fighting could soon break out in the country. Specifically, senior U.S. officials warned Tuesday that Turkey may be preparing to mount a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds, long-time enemies, of course, of leaders in Ankara.

That's according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. For some background, Turkey, while counted as a U.S. ally, has long fought Kurdish separatists along their border who seek to establish an independent country. The Kurds, who have proven instrumental in helping the U.S. fight ISIS, control much of Syria's northeast under an autonomous civil administration, though Turkey claims they're linked with the PKK, that's a Kurdish terrorist organization. Since Assad's ouster last weekend, Turkey has renewed a limited airstrike campaign

against Kurdish forces in northern Syria, collectively known as the Syrian Democratic forces, the SDF. Turkey has vowed to do everything in their power to prevent them from expanding their territory and are already backing Syrian rebels supposing the Kurds in the region. Now, it seems Ankara may have an eye on eliminating this perceived threat altogether, with one U.S. official warning that a cross-border

operation appears imminent. Turkey's preparations certainly have the Kurds feeling, well, let's use the word anxious about their future. An official in the Syrian Kurds' civilian administration appealed to President-elect Trump on Monday to intervene, urging him to speak with Turkish President Erdogan to prevent a violent clash. The official wrote to Trump that Turkey's chief goal was to, quote, established de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory, end quote. The Kurdish official warned an invasion by Turkey would displace upwards of 200,000 civilians, including vulnerable Christian communities.

For their part, Turkey has been tight-lipped about their large-scale military build-up. Their fighting forces currently concentrated on the edge of Syria's northern border near the Kurdish city of Kobani. There was briefly some hope that diplomacy would win the day. The Biden administration dispatched Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to Turkey last week to discuss Syria's future with Erdogan and seek assurances that his government would not inflame the already well-inflamed situation. But ceasefire discussions between Syrian Kurds and Turkish-backed rebels in Kobani broke down on Monday,

and there's little hope that they'll be revived anytime soon. So where does Syria's rebel-backed transitional government? stand on all this. While the leading militant rebel group HTS has not officially commented, Turkish officials claimed over the weekend that the rebels agree that Turkish military forces and their civil administration must be dismantled. Turkey's defense minister said that while no formal agreement has been reached yet with the transitional government, quote, both the new administration in Syria and we want this, end quote. We should know, however, that the Islamist rebel coalition, which has been attempting to distance itself

from its past ties with terror groups, has repeatedly promised not to persecute religious and ethnic minorities. At the same time, Turkey has reportedly demanded that the U.S. review its support for the Kurdish militia, claiming ISIS does not pose the same threat that it once did. The Pentagon, however, is, of course, wary about leaving any space in Syria for ISIS militants to reconstitute. Yeah, that makes sense. Both the U.S. and Turkey will likely remain at an impasse on this issue until Trump returns to office in jail. As you may recall, Trump partially withdrew U.S. troops from northeast Syria during his first term, a moment that Turkey seized on to invade parts of Kurdish territory. Trump subsequently helped negotiate a ceasefire, no it resulted in the Kurds, ceding several miles of border territory to Turkey.

Notably, Trump claimed on Monday that Turkey quietly backed HDS and orchestrated the rebel revolt against Assad to further their regional interests, calling it aid, quote, unfriendly takeover, though he did not offer proof. Regarding the threat of renewed fighting, Trump said Monday that, well, no one can predict what the final outcome will be. He gets him all great with Erdogan, who he praised as, quote, a very smart guy. Well, I'm glad that that's the case, and I'm sure that Erdogan will be happy to hear that. All right, coming up next, promising signs in Gaza ceasefire talks as Netanyahu heads to Cairo. And the U.S. Treasury Department targets North Korea and Russian, with new sanctions.

I'll have those stories when we come back. Some follow the noise. Bloomberg follows the money. Because behind every headline is a bottom line. Whether it's the funds fueling AI or crypto's trillion dollar swings, there's a money side to every story. And when you see the money side, you understand what others miss. Get the money side of the story.

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go wrong with a ready-to-heathe Kish Lorraine, Deviled Eggs, and fresh-cut fruits to go. Celebrate Mom with Whole Foods Market. Welcome back to the PDD. For months now, we've been tracking reports of progress toward a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. And if you've been paying attention, you know the cycle. Hope rises, only to be dashed as talks stall, conditions shift, and then talks completely break down. But now there's, well, reason to believe we could be closer to a breakthrough than we've been since the conflict was started by Hamas back on 7 October of last year. According to a new report from Reuters,

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is heading to Cairo for what's being described as the final stage of negotiations. These talks aim to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages still being held by Hamas. That move alone, Netanyahu personally traveling to Cairo, signals that this isn't just another round of preliminary discussions. Those same sources say a deal could be signed in the coming days. Israeli defense minister Israel-Kats reinforced this sense of momentum

on Monday, stating that Israeli negotiators have, quote, not been this close to an agreement since the temporary ceasefire back in November of last year. Optimism isn't only coming from the Israeli side. A senior Palestinian official involved in these indirect negotiations told the BBC that the talks have reached a, quote, decisive and final phase. Meanwhile, Khmeras added its own perspective in a statement released on Tuesday. They said, quote, Hamas affirms that in light of the serious and positive and discussions taking place today in Doha under the auspices of our Qatari and Egyptian brothers, reaching an agreement for a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange is possible if the occupation ceases

to impose new conditions." End quote. So, what's on the table? Well, here's what we know. The plan is set to unfold in three phases. Phase one would involve the release of women and civilian hostages over the course of 45 days, paired with an Israeli military withdrawal from key areas, city centers, the coastal road, and strategic border zones near Egypt. The second phase would see the release of remaining hostages and the further withdrawal of the Israeli troops. And finally, the third phase would formally bring an end to the war. Now, to put this into perspective, there are 96 hostages still believed to be held in Gaza. Israel estimates that 62 of them are still alive.

This time, U.S. officials are also weighing in cautiously. On Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby acknowledged the progress, saying in an interview with Fox News, quote, we believe, and the Israelis have said this, that we're getting closer, and no doubt about it, we believe that, but we also are cautious in our optimism, end quote. So, it does appear that there is potential here. Netanyahu is in Cairo, Hamas is signaling in openness, and cautious optimism is coming from both sides of the table, and key international players. Okay, shifting focus to the U.S. Washington announced a new round of sanctions, targeting North Korean and Russian entities, accused of fueling Pyongyang's military support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

The sanctions, revealed by the Treasury Department on Monday, zeroed in on North Korean banks, senior military officials and Russian oil shipping companies violating United States' sanctions. The State Department said it had sufficient evidence to justify the designation of 11 individuals and eight entities for their role in facilitating North Korea's direct military assistance to Russia. In a joint statement issued by the U.S. and 10 nations, including South Korea, Britain, Japan, and the European Union, Pyongyang's growing ties with Moscow were sharply condemned. Well, that shouldn't do it.

The statement called North Korea's support for Russia's invasion a, quote, dangerous expansion of the conflict and a, quote, flagrant violation of UN sanctions, warning of its destabilizing effects on both European and Indo-Pacific. security. You know, it is jarning how the international community regularly acts as if North Korea cares about UN sanctions. The signatories restated their commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and demanded that North Korea withdraw all assistance, including the deployment of troops. Well, good. Again, that should do it, a harshly written memo. I'm sure Kim Jong-un is taking it under advisement. Concerns were also raised over Russia's potential contributions to North Korea's illicit weapons

programs, including ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, which pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula. Diplomatic and economic cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow has visibly deepened, of course, in recent months. Their growing partnership culminated in a mutual defense pact signed during Russian President Putin's high-profile visit to North Korea in June. The military ties have drawn global condemnation, particularly following reports that North Korea has dispatched at least 10,000 troops to Russia's war effort. As we covered on the PDB on Tuesday, Ukraine's military intelligence agency, G.O.U.R. claimed for the first time that at least 30 North Korean soldiers were killed or injured in Russia's Kursk border region,

signifying Pyongyang's forces are now on the front lines. Ukrainian President Zelensky responded bluntly, vowing that Ukraine would continue to defend itself, stating, quote, including against these North Koreans. Zelensky has previously warned that the North Korean contingent couldn't balloon to as many as 100,000, thousand soldiers. The newly imposed sanctions freeze U.S.-based assets of the targeted individuals and entities, block their access to the American financial system, and bar transactions with U.S. individuals for businesses. Among the notable targets are Russian oil companies accused of covertly shipping oil and gas to North Korea, circumventing UN restrictions. According to the Treasury Department,

these companies began deliveries in 2022. Analysts citing satellite imagery published in November by the BBC, and British-faced open-source center, estimate that North Korea has received over 1 million barrels of Russian oil since March, a figure enabled by over 40 tanker trips to an eastern Russian port. Treasury officials said the shipments violate UN resolutions that cap Pyongyang's annual oil imports

at 500,000 barrels. As tensions mount, the international community is closely monitoring the ongoing romance between Moscow and Pyongyang. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, has made clear his intentions to strength at economic and technological cooperation with Russia. All right, coming up in the back of the brief,

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces mounting pressure to resign as his party reacts to the looming threat of tariffs from President-elect Trump. I'll be right back. Starting a business can seem like a daunting task unless you have a partner like Shopify. They have the tools you need to start and grow your business,

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Catch rock and protein in the dairy cooler at a store near you. Rock and protein and Shamrock farms are registered trademarks of Shamrock Foods Company. In today's back of the brief, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is considering stepping down after the resignation of his finance minister, Christia Freeland, leading his leadership weakened at a time when Canada stares down the barrel of a worsening economic crisis. Freeland's exit on Monday came at a critical moment, with President-elect Trump threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Now, such a move would deliver a punishing blow to Canada's economy, which is already straining under inflationary pressures, immigration, and a housing shortage. Trudeau's government, battered by

intertional divisions and external economic threats, is facing mounting pressure to chart a clear path forward. Freeland had been preparing to unveil a much-anticipated economic roadmap, but walked away instead, citing irreconcilable differences over fiscal priorities and Trudeau's leadership style. Her resignation letter laid bare the internal discord, accusing Trudeau's administration of prioritizing, quote, costly political gimmicks over the, quote, grave challenge of preparing for a potential trade war with the incoming U.S. administration. Freeland's rebuke struck a particularly sharp note when she called for, quote, fiscal restraint, implicitly criticizing Trudeau's spending policies.

Behind closed doors, tensions reportedly escalated after Trudeau asked her to accept a demotion in the cabinet. Yeah, that always goes well, a proposal that seemed to signal deeper fissures within the liberal party. Trudeau himself admitted it was one of his party's, quote, toughest days. His tone, one part weary and one part defiant, did little, frankly. to dispel the impression that his government is on the ropes. According to CTV news, Trudeau told his cabinet he's mulling two options, resignation or prologation, which is a parliamentary maneuver that would effectively hit pause on the government's work, buying him some time.

Neither, however, projects the image of a leader in control, of course. The fallout has been swift. Senior voices in his own party, frustrated by Freeland's departure and the worsening economic outlook, are now quietly urging Trudeau to simply step aside ahead of the next election, which is due before October 2025. While a no-confidence vote does not appear imminent, the political damage caused by Freeland's resignation has led to speculation that Trudeau's near 10-year stint

as Prime Minister may be coming to an end. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Wednesday, 18 December. Just seven more shopping days still Christmas. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And in the event, hoping Santa will bring you an ad-free PDB experience. Well, save him the trouble. You can do it yourself. Simply become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting PDB premium.com.

It's that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin and possibly without that groovy background soundtrack. Until then, stay informed, stay safe. safe. Stay cool. Ryan Reynolds here for MintMobil. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for $15 a month plan that I've been enjoying.

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