The President's Daily Brief - December 23rd, 2025: China Crosses Nuclear Red Line & Ukraine Strikes Deep Inside Russia

Episode Date: December 23, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Alarming new intelligence from the Pentagon suggests China is rapidly filling newly constructed missile silos with intercontinental ballistic missiles, signaling a nuclear buildup moving faster than analysts expected and raising fresh concerns about Beijing’s long-term intentions. Ukraine takes the fight deep inside Russia, striking energy infrastructure, aircraft, and naval targets in a coordinated wave of attacks aimed at disrupting Moscow’s war effort far from the front lines. Diplomacy delivers smiles but no substance, as White House officials describe talks with Russia in Miami as “productive,” even while the Kremlin openly admits no progress has been made toward ending the war. And in today’s Back of the Brief: border fighting between Cambodia and Thailand drags into a third week, with new talks planned to revive a ceasefire once brokered by President Trump. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Stash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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and you'll learn how to convert an existing IRA or 401k into a gold IRA. Again, text PDB to 989-89-898. It's Tuesday, the 23rd of December. Look at that. You've got, let me see if my math is correct. Two more shopping days until Christmas. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker.

your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right. Let's get briefed. First up, alarming new intelligence from the Pentagon. Is there any other kind? China is rapidly filling missile silos with intercontinental ballistic missiles, signaling a nuclear buildup moving faster than anyone expected. Happy holidays.

Later in the show, Ukraine continues to take the fight deep inside Russia, striking energy infrastructure, aircraft, and naval targets. in a coordinated wave of attacks. Plus, despite happy talk out of Washington following talks with Russia in Miami, the Kremlin says no progress has been made as negotiations fail to move the needle. But don't worry, U.S. envoy Steve Whitkoff, says Putin is fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine. Oh. And in today's back of the brief, the fighting drags into a third week as Cambodia and Thailand agreed in new talks aimed at reviving a ceasefire,

previously brokered by the Trump administration. But first, today's BDB spotlight. New intelligence from the Pentagon suggests China may have quietly crossed a major nuclear threshold. According to a draft Defense Department report obtained by Reuters, Beijing has likely loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles into newly constructed silo fields, marking a significant escalation in China's nuclear posture. These silo fields were already known to U.S. intelligence. What's new, and obviously far more concerning, is the assessment that the missiles are now operationally loaded.

That distinction, of course, is important. Building silos is one thing, loading them with solid-fueled ICBMs is another entirely. The report says the missiles involved are likely DF-31 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, deployed across three silo fields near China's northern border with Mongolia. Solid-fueled missiles can be launched far more quickly than older liquid-fueled systems, reducing warning time and increasing survivability. In plain terms, this shifts China's nuclear force from potential to ready. The Pentagon had previously disclosed the existence of these silo fields,

but not the number of missiles and not their status. This new assessment suggests Beijing is no longer preparing for some distant future. It's building a force designed to operate. now. The same Pentagon report states flatly that Beijing shows no appetite for arms control talks. Even as President Trump has said, he wants to pursue denuclearization discussions with both China and Russia. U.S. officials say they've seen no indication that Beijing is willing to engage in meaningful negotiations, bilateral or otherwise. In less than two months, the New START Treaty, that's the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia,

is set to expire. Once it does, there will be no formal limits on deployed strategic nuclear weapons among the world's three largest nuclear powers. Uh, happy holidays. No caps, no inspections, no guardrails. The Pentagon estimates China's nuclear warhead stockpile was still in the low 600s as of last year, but it's on track to exceed 1,000 warheads by 2030. That would represent the fastest nuclear expansion by any nuclear-armed state in modern history. And of course, prior to modern history, there were no nuclear-armed states. So, admittedly, that was an odd statement. Beijing insists it adheres to a no-first-use policy.

Well, that's good, and claims its nuclear strategy is purely defensive. But actions tend to speak, well, louder than doctrine. And the scale and speed of this build-up suggests something far more ambitious than deterrence. The report doesn't stop at nuclear weapons. It also concludes that China expects to be capable of fighting and winning a war over Taiwan by the end of 2027. That includes options involving brute force, mass missile strikes, long-range attacks reaching up to 2,000 nautical miles, and sustained efforts to disrupt U.S. forces across the Indo-Pacific. The nuclear build-up, in that context, begins to look less like an abstract strategic hedge

and more like a stabilizing backstop for conventional aggression designed to deter U.S. intervention while Beijing moves on Taiwan. There's also an internal contradiction of play here. The report notes that President Xi Jinping's sweeping anti-corruption purges, particularly within the People's Liberation Army and state-owned defense firms, may temporarily degrade readiness in some areas. but over the long term, U.S. analysts believe those purges could actually strengthen the PLA by consolidating control and eliminating rival power centers.

China disputes the Pentagon's conclusions, of course they do, calling reports of a military buildup an effort to smear Beijing and mislead the international community. The Defense Department declined to comment on the draft report, and officials note that its contents could still change before being delivered to Congress. But even with caveats, the trajectory appears to be clear. China is modernizing its nuclear forces, and as of right now, it has little interest in talking about limits. As one arms control expert put it, more nuclear weapons and less diplomacy does not make anyone safer. Ah, in case you were confused over that concept.

Coming up next, Ukrainian attacks hit targets inside Russia, while diplomatic talks continue without any real indication. of progress. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as the New Year approaches, let me take a minute to talk about your financial goals. Because of a great company out there called Stash, well, you don't have to overhaul your life to start investing. You just automate it. With Stash, your New Year money goals can quietly run in the background while you focus on everything else going on in your busy life. Stash, you see, isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor that combines automated investing with expert personalized guidance. So you don't have to worry about gambling or figuring it out on your own.

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If Russia insists on projecting military strength rather than sitting down at the negotiating table, Ukraine is, well, testing the reality behind that. On Monday, Ukrainian forces carried out several coordinated strikes, including on an oil terminal, two parked fighter jets, and two ships, all in Russian territory. This latest route of strikes fits a familiar pattern. With Ukrainian forces under heavy pressure along the front lines, Kiev has increasingly taken to fight deep into Russia, targeting the infrastructure that keeps Moscow's war machine running and challenging the idea that the Kremlin holds the upper hand militarily at the negotiating table. It's a way for Kiv to shift the balance without massed formations and of signaling that even areas Moscow once treated as secure are now within striking distance.

According to Ukraine's general staff, the operations extended beyond energy infrastructure. Ukrainian forces also struck an ammunition depot and launch site used for Russian and Iranian-made drones. In southern Russia's Krasnodar region, two docks and two ships were damaged, triggering a large fire. I'd like to point out that Ukrainian officials did not specify what weapons were used in those attacks. Ukraine's general staff did confirm, however, that a Ukrainian-made missile struck a temporary base belonging to Russia's 92nd Riverboat Brigade in Occupied Crimea. In Russian-controlled Dhenetsk, Ukrainian forces hit another ammunition depot in what Keev said was a strike aimed at slowing Russian advances in the region.

The campaign also relied on unconventional tactics. On Sunday, Ukrainian partisans set fire to two Russian fighter jets at an air base in western Russia. That's according to Ukraine's military intelligence service, underscoring a growing trend in Ukraine's use of sabotage and precision strikes to stretch Russian defenses. And the pressure campaign isn't limited to land. There's also been a significant development at sea.

That brings me to an update on a story that we brought to you last week. At the time, Ukraine's security service said Ukrainian forces carried out an underwater drone attack on the night of 14th of December, targeting a Russian kilo-class submarine while it was docked at Novorazizk naval base on the eastern edge of the Black Sea. Last week, Keeve released blast footage, claiming the strike critically damaged the submarine, though the assessment had not yet been independently confirmed. Now, UK defense intelligence has weighed in, and in doing so provided the clearest confirmation yet of what Ukraine actually pulled off. In an assessment dated 20 December, U.K. Defense Intelligence said the strike used what is called a subsea baby, otherwise known as an uncrewed

underwater vehicle, to penetrate the port's multi-layered defenses and detonate beneath the water line. The assessment concludes that the submarine likely suffered significant damage, leaving it unable to deploy or sail under its own power. That conclusion is reinforced by what happened next. UK defense intelligence noted that the damaged submarine remained docked in Noverazizk. At the time, other Russian naval vessels dispersed from the base in what was a precautionary move aimed at reducing their exposure to potential follow-up Ukrainian strikes. And that reaction speaks volumes. As I previously mentioned, Novorizk was intended to function as a fallback port,

located deeper inside Russian territory and shielded by layered defenses. But the implications, well, they stretch further than just a single submarine. The targeted sub was also on missile platform, for long-range strikes against Ukraine. Disabling even one of those represents a tangible degradation of Moscow's strike capacity and sharpens a point that Keev has been pressing. No Russian energy infrastructure, base or port can be assumed secure. Sticking with the war in Ukraine, a weekend of diplomacy in Miami,

between U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials produced familiar language and familiar limits. upbeat readouts from the U.S. team, no breakthrough toward a ceasefire, and the same unresolved gaps between Kiev and Moscow. From Washington's vantage point, the weekend was framed as proof that diplomacy is still alive, hazaar, even if it remains slow-moving. White House envoy, Steve Whitkoff, said the talks were, quote, productive and constructive, emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to what he described as a just and sustainable peace. He pointed to shared priorities between Washington and Kiev of stopping the killing, restoring security, and creating conditions for recovery, all language meant to signal progress, even as the meetings ended without any concrete movement toward a ceasefire.

The talks capped three days of shuttle-style diplomacy in Florida, with Ukrainian and Russian delegations meeting separately with U.S. officials. I want to emphasize that there were no direct negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, underscoring how wide the gap between the two sides still is, despite repeated efforts to keep channels open. Ukrainian National Security Advisor Rostem Umerov said in a statement that Ukrainian officials spent the three days in meetings with American counterparts to advance the Ukrainian-backed 20-point peace plan. That proposal, as you'll remember, was introduced earlier this month and is widely viewed as a non-starter by Moscow. It was drafted in response to a U.S. authored framework backed by President Trump that would require, or would have required, Ukraine to cede additional territory.

That detail ultimately led to its rejection by Keev and most European capitals. On the Russian side, state media TAS reported that Kareil Dmitriev met with Whitkoff and Jared Kushner. And even there, in the immediate aftermath of talks, the messaging from the U.S. remained upbeat. Whitkoff issued a statement saying, quote, Russia remains fully committed to achieving peace in Ukraine. Oh, and that Moscow, quote, highly values the efforts in support of the U.S. to resolve the Ukrainian conflict, end quote, what? It's unclear if Whitkoff was medicated when he made these bizarre statements. Demetriov, a sophisticated individual, well-versed in stringing along the U.S. and allies,

described the talks as constructive, according to Russian state, means. media. And then, after schmoozing the U.S. negotiating team, he returned to Moscow. And the following day, Yuri Ushikov, a senior foreign policy advisor to Russian President Putin, openly undercut the positive readouts, saying the proposals discussed with U.S. negotiators were largely advanced by Ukraine and Europe and were, quote, rather unconstructive. The remark amounted to a blunt statement from the Kremlin itself that the talks failed to produce meaningful progress toward ending the war. That's because, I don't know, perhaps Putin doesn't see any upside to ending the war. And that disconnect emphasizes just how far apart, both sides remain, and highlights the U.S. negotiating

team's tendency to not address the real issue here, which is that Putin has no interest in peace. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said, quote, the most difficult issues were and remain Ukrainian territories, adding that control of the Zaporizia nuclear power plant, post-war-recenta-war reconstruction funding and security guarantees all remain unresolved. Other U.S. officials, for their part, acknowledge that progress is likely to be slow, really? And for that, the entire gaggle of other U.S. officials are awarded today's BDP statement of the obvious award. Secretary of State Marker Rubio kept expectations more grounded, telling reporters that, quote, we have a ways to go, cautioning that talks could stretch on for months.

Now, that's a far more measured assessment than even President Trump's most recent claim that the parties are, quote, closer now than we have ever been, not to mention Whitkoff's bizarre, unwarranted, continued optimism. Look, I don't want to sound overly cynical here. Hope and optimism, very nice, right? You want to be hopeful and you want to be optimistic. But hope is not a national security strategy. An appeasement of an invading army has never...

ever resulted in long-term peace and stability. It might be time for the White House's negotiating team to stop pretending that Putin is part of the peace solution and realize that he's actually the problem. All right. Coming up in today's back of the brief, after weeks of border fighting and dozens of deaths, Cambodia and Thailand head back to the negotiating table to try and secure a truce. I'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here with a message from our friends at Birch Gold Group.

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and gold has historically been a safe haven for times of uncertainty and instability. That's why I urge you to consider diversifying into gold with the Birch Gold Group. Text PDB to 989-89-898 to claim your free information kit on gold. That's PDB to 989-89-8. Protect your future today with Birch Gold. Get tickets Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com In today's back of the brief, Southeast Asia's latest border war is grinding on into its third week, and regional leaders are now racing to pull Thailand and Cambodia back from the brink.

Foreign ministers from across Southeast Asia convened in Kuala Lumpur on Monday for emergency talks aimed at salvaging a ceasefire that is effectively collapsed since fighting reignited between the two countries on the 8th of December. While the conflict shows few signs of slowing, Monday's meeting yielded a narrow but notable step forward. Thailand and Cambodia agreed to send defense officials to a December 24th meeting of their General Border Committee. That's a long-standing bilateral military channel meant to manage precisely this kind of crisis.

Until the Christmas Eve session convenes, top diplomats of the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN urged both countries to exercise maximum restraint and take immediate steps to halt fighting. That's according to our report from Reuters. Officials from Malaysia, ASEAN's current chair, added that the discussions will focus on ceasefire implementation and verification. The potential breakthrough comes as clashes along the roughly 500-mile disputed border have intensified, spreading well beyond isolated flashpoints. At least 80 people have now been killed since fighting reignited on the 8th of December, marked by daily exchanges of artillery,

rockets, and drone attacks, with clashes stretching from forested areas near Laos, all the way down to the coastal provinces along the Gulf of Thailand. Both capitals continue to insist the other side is responsible. That makes sense. Thailand accuses Cambodian forces of launching repeated attacks and also of laying new landmines in contested areas. That's a claim that Cambodian leaders firmly, deny. Cambodia, meanwhile, says the Thai military has repeatedly violated its sovereignty and has

vowed to defend what it claims is its own territory, quote, at any cost. What's clear is that the ceasefire framework agreed to on the 28th of July of this year has fallen apart. You'll remember our previous similar flare-up was diffused after direct intervention by President Trump, working alongside Malaysius Prime Minister. The July truce included commitments to pull back troops, removed of explosives and avoid escalation. But this time, despite renewed diplomatic outreach by both Malaysian Prime Minister and President Trump, including phone calls and statements urging calm, the fighting has continued unabated. China has also attempted to insert itself into the diplomatic efforts, reportedly dispatching their special envoy for Asian affairs to Bangkok and

Phnom Pen in recent days. But leaders in Thailand said Monday that neither the U.S. or China were involved in the decision to revive bilateral talks, saying Thailand and Cambodia needed to, quote, work things out on their own. Thailand, for its part, made clear it wants what officials described as a genuine ceasefire. Thailand's foreign minister said Monday, quote, a ceasefire cannot just be declared, it needs a discussion, underscoring that firm enforcement mechanisms must be implemented. For the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,

Wednesday's meeting will be a major test of whether the block can manage open conflict between its own members through diplomacy without the need for intervention by major global powers. Malaysia's foreign minister said Monday, quote, our goal goes beyond de-escalating the tension. We must intensify trust-building among the conflicting parties and provide the horizons for dialogue despite the prevailing differences, end quote. But for now, there are a few signs that there will be an immediate de-escalation. Fighting continues along multiple stretches of the disputed border, with both,

Thailand and Cambodia reinforcing their positions, even as diplomatic efforts intensify. And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, the 23rd of December. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB at thefirsttv.com. Finally, if you're Jonesen for an ad-free PDB experience, it is simple. Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdb premium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed.

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