The President's Daily Brief - December 29th, 2025: How China Is Exploiting Russia & U.S. Strikes ISIS

Episode Date: December 29, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: China and Russia appear closer than ever—but the relationship is far from equal. We’ll break down how Beijing is exploiting Russia’s growing dependence as the war in Ukraine drags on, turning Moscow’s isolation into long-term leverage for China. Christmas Day airstrikes in Nigeria. The U.S. hits Islamic State targets hard, as President Trump signals there is a limit to how long the slaughter of Christians will be tolerated. Israel announces it has killed a member of Iran’s elite Quds Force, allegedly involved in planning attacks across the region. And in today’s Back of the Brief—Israel becomes the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state, drawing sharp condemnation from the international community. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com.  Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief Stash Financial: Don't Let your money sit around. Go to https://get.stash.com/PDB to see how you can receive $25 towards your first stock purchase. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, China and Russia. Well, they look closer than ever. But what's being sold as partnership is really a story about leverage and dependence and who's quietly calling the shots. I'll explain how Beijing is exploiting Russian weakness.

Later in the show, Christmas Day Air Strike in Nigeria. That doesn't sound very festive. The U.S. hits ISIS hard, and President Trump makes it clear there's a limit to how long the killing of Christians in Nigeria will be tolerated. Plus, Israel announces it has killed an Iranian-Quds force member involved in planning attacks across the region. And finally, in today's back of the brief, Israel becomes the first country to formally recognize Somaliland as an independent state, and that's a move that is drawing sharp condemnation from the international community. But first, today's PDB spotlight.

Today, we're starting off with a topic that's worth looking at as we wrap up our final week of the PDB for 2025. Now, over the past 12 months, we've heard a lot about the growing ties between Russia and China. It's a blossoming bromance that is supposedly built on shared interests and respect. The two countries appear closer than ever before, but appearances, of course, as usual, are in fact deceiving. And that brings us to a handy rule of thumb that I like to use when trying to understand Beijing's moves. When China makes a move, when they take some decision, it's doing what's best for China, always. If you strip away the rhetoric about strategic partnerships and

multipolar worlds and no-limits friendships, you'll almost always find Beijing pursuing its own interests, economic leverage, strategic advantage, and long-term influence. And nowhere is a dynamic clearer than in China's relationship with Russia, ever since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine back in 2022. Now, on the surface, it can look like China has thrown Russia a lifeline, and they have, in a sense, buying its energy, expanding trade, providing diplomatic cover, and refusing to join Western sanctions. But if you look closer, you'll quickly realize that every way that China is helping Russia

is in reality an act of exploitation, one that's strong. strengthens Beijing while locking Moscow into a position of dependency. It's not an alliance of equals, in other words. It's a relationship where one side has options, and the other, well, really doesn't. One of the clearest examples, of course, is energy. When Europe cut back sharply on Russian oil and gas after the invasion, Moscow lost its most lucrative customers almost overnight. China stepped in, but of course, on its own terms. China now buys vast quantities of Russian oil.

and gas at steep discounts. Those purchases, of course, help fuel Russia's war machine, but they also permanently reset the balance of power in that relationship. Russia doesn't get to name its price anymore. It takes what it can get. China knows Russia has limited alternatives, and it negotiates accordingly. Projects like the power of Siberia pipeline, that's a massive natural gas link, carrying Russian fuel directly into northern China, well, often framed as symbols of partnership. In reality, that sort of project binds Russia's energy infrastructure eastward at a time when it's lost access to premium European markets. Even proposed expansions, like a second pipeline, are being slow-walked by Beijing, which has no urgency and every incentive to extract better terms. For China, this means

cheaper energy, longer-term supply security, and increased leverage over a major producer. For Russia, it means reduced revenue, fewer options, and a growing dependence on a single dominant buyer. And energy is just the starting point. That same dynamic carries over into trade more broadly. Since 2022, trade between China and Russia has surged, often held up as evidence that sanctions didn't work. But what they're trading and who benefits tells a different story. China exports far more to Russia than Russia exports to China, and the gap is widening. Russia increasingly relies on Chinese machinery, electronics, vehicles, and consumer goods to replace what it once imported from Europe. Meanwhile, China imports mostly raw materials, oil and gas, coal, timber, and metals.

It's a lopsided trade relationship. Russia is mostly selling raw materials, while China is selling finished products, and locking in Russia as a long-term customer. Even the shift to settling trade in yuan rather than dollars, often portrayed as a blow. to Western financial dominance primarily benefits China. It internationalizes the Chinese currency and pulls Russia deeper into China's financial ecosystem, where Beijing, not Moscow, sets the rules. Again, Russia gains survival, but China gains control. And the economic side of this partnership is only part of the story. On the diplomatic front, China presents itself as a neutral actor, calling for peace while echoing Russia's talking points about NATO expansion. and security concerns. It's a posture that costs China very little in reality and yields major

benefits. By refusing to condemn Moscow outright, Beijing keeps Russia aligned with its broader vision of a world less dominated by the U.S. At the same time, China positions itself as a potential mediator, enhancing its global stature without committing troops, money, or political capital. For Russia, this support is largely symbolic. It doesn't translate into security guarantee, or military alliances or binding commitments. But it does reinforce Russia's reliance on China, as one of the few major powers willing to stand beside it diplomatically. Again, China gains influence.

Russia gains what? Maybe talking points. Perhaps the most revealing exploitation is happening not in Ukraine, but in Central Asia. Historically, Russia has viewed that region as its backyard. But since 2022, Moscow's attention, of course, and resources have been consumed by its invasion into Ukraine. China has taken advantage, expanding investment, infrastructure projects, and political influence through trade corridors and security cooperation. It's not confrontation, its replacement. China is slowly supplanting Russia as the dominant external power in parts of

Central Asia, leveraging economic tools rather than tanks. Moscow, weakened and overstretched, can do little to stop it. When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin declared a, quote, no limit its partnership in early 2022, it sounded like the foundation of a new authoritarian block. In practice, the limits have been obvious and consistently enforced by Beijing. China has not provided Russia with direct military assistance. It has not jeopardized its access to Western markets. It has not tied its own economic fate to Moscow's war. Instead, China has allowed Russia to bleed economically and diplomatically and militarily, while quietly positioning its country. While quietly positioning its itself as the senior partner in the relationship. Russia may survive this war with China's help,

but it will emerge weaker, more isolated, and more beholden to Beijing than ever before. And that outcome, as usual, is all about what's in China's own self-interest. All right, coming up next, the U.S. launches Christmas Day air strikes against ISIS in Nigeria, and Israel says they killed an Iranian-Kuds force operative tied to regional attack. planning. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Now, as we move into the new year, that's right, 2026, just around the corner, many of us are looking to build more intentional lives, to live deliberately and better aligned with our purpose and values. That's why I want to tell you about glorify, the number one Christian daily devotional app, right? Glorify can help you lead a more

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With Ring, it's protected. Shop cameras, doorbells, and more at ring.com now. Welcome back to the PDB. On Christmas Day, while folks around the world were celebrating, the Trump administration made its move, launching air strikes against Islamic State targets in Nigeria in an effort to halt the reported slaughter of Christians in the country. President Trump set the tone himself. He wrote in a post on truth social, quote,

The U.S. launched a strike against ISIS terrorist scum in northwest Nigeria. Now, as regular PDB listeners know, this didn't come out of nowhere. The strike was the endpoint of a pressure campaign that the Trump administration has been building on for months. Back in October, Trump formally designated Nigeria as a, quote, country of particular concern, accusing its government of failing to protect Christians from what he described as an existential threat from ISIS terrorists. Shortly after, Trump issued a warning on truth social, threatening to cut off U.S. aid, and even enter the country, quote, guns ablazing, which is a term you haven't really heard since the 1940s westerns, if the slaughter of Christians didn't stop.

That warning quickly moved from rhetoric to preparation. In early November, Trump directed the Department of War to begin laying out military options. By mid-month, the administration was making its case on the world stage, convening a high-profile panel at the UN focused specifically on the killing of Christians in Nigeria. And so, by Christmas Day, the preparations were complete. U.S. forces carried out what Trump described as, quote, powerful and deadly strikes against ISIS enclaves in Nigeria-Sakoto state. turning weeks of warnings and designations and preparations into action. But I want to point out that this wasn't some unilateral option by Washington.

An anonymous Department of War official said Nigeria's government approved the Christmas Day strikes. The White House has not yet provided details on casualty figures or the scale of the operation. We do know that U.S. Africa Command, which conducted the strikes, said the attacks targeted terrorists, quote, in known ISIS camps in Nigeria. Secretary of War Pete Hedgeseth reinforced the administration's message writing on X that, quote, The President was clear last month, the killing of innocent Christians in Nigeria and elsewhere must end. Now, for some quick context on Nigeria, the country has roughly 240 million people and is deeply divided, with a largely Muslim North and a largely Christian South.

In parts of the North, violence against Christians has been rising for many years, driven by extremist groups, including Islamic State affiliates and Boko Haram. Back in the U.S., Trump's base, especially Christian voters, have been demanding tougher action on the killings in Nigeria, with some describing the slaughter as a, quote, Christian genocide. Now, the White House hasn't exactly used that language, and Nigerian officials continue to argue the conflict is more complex, involving ethnic tensions, criminal networks,

and overlapping insurgencies alongside religious extremists, alongside religious extremism. Still, the strikes mark a clear turning point. After months of warnings and preparation, the Trump administration showed that it was prepared to move from diplomacy to force when its warnings and messaging were ignored. Okay, shifting gears.

The Israeli military is confirming it eliminated an Iranian-Kuds force operative in Lebanon, cutting down a key planner of terror attacks against Israeli targets from Syria and across the Lebanese front. The man, Hussein Mahmoud, Moshad Al-Jawari wasn't just some low or mid-level figure. Jerusalem says he operated inside what's called Unit 840, it's a covert quid's force unit responsible for planning and coordinating

attacks against the Jewish state. According to the Israeli military, he was killed last week in the Ansaria area. That's a stretch of coast and road network known to facilitate the movement of terrorists and weapons between Lebanon and Syria. Now, Israel has not said how the operation was carried out, but officials in Jerusalem framed it as a targeted strike aimed at disrupting active attack planning rather than just sending a broader message to Tehran or one of its proxy groups. In a statement, the IDF said Al-Jewari operated under the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, and was involved in terror activities directed by Iran. Israeli strikes in Lebanon have become almost a daily routine now,

part of what Jerusalem describes, as an ongoing effort to prevent the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah from rebuilding its military capabilities. That campaign has been unfolding against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Israel and Iran. You'll remember back in June, the two sides fought a brief, of course, but intense 12-day war that killed senior Iranian military commanders and nuclear scientists, pushing the rivalry into a more volatile phase as the Mullahs pursue nuclear enrichment far beyond civilian use. And it's against that backdrop that Iranian President Massoud Pasekian, struck a defiant tone over this weekend, declaring that Iran is now engaged in what he called

a, quote, full-scale war with the U.S., Israel, and Europe, citing sanctions and restrictions. In an interview published on the website of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatoll Ali Khomeini, he said the West, quote, does not want our country to remain stable. Pazeshkian and Khomeini have leaned into that rhetoric following the U.S. and Israeli-led strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, casting mounting pressure on Tehran. as an existential siege rather than a response to the regime's regional terror activity and nuclear ambitions. In the same interview, Posseschian complained that the Islamic Republic is being squeezed on multiple fronts. He said, quote, they're besieging us from every aspect, pointing to economic,

political, cultural, and security pressures. He argued that Western sanctions have collided with rising expectations at home, such as the Mullah's frail economy and an ongoing water crisis, leaving the regime undergrowing strain from within. All of this comes as President Trump is again drawing a hard line on Iran, pledging to stop the regime from obtaining a nuclear weapon and dismissing claims that the Mullah's nuclear program is peaceful. All right. Coming up in today's back of the brief, Israel draws international criticism after it announces

that it would become the first nation to formally recognize Somaliland. That's a breakaway region of Somalia. We'll have those details. Hey, Mike Baker here. Let me take just a moment of your time to talk about financial goals and to tell you about a great company out there that's helping people reach their goals. I'm talking about Stash, Stash Financial. Look, you don't need to overhaul your life to start investing, right? You can just automate it. And with Stash, well, your New Year money goals can quietly run in the background while you focus on everything else going on in your busy life. Stash isn't just another investing app. It's a registered investment advisor. combines automated investing with expert personalized guidance. So you're not to worry about gambling or figuring it out on your own. Think about it. Just $3 per month get you access to world-class financial advice and personalized guidance.

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These investment advisory services are offered by Stash Investments LLC and SEC registered investment advisor. Investing involves risk, offer is subject to terms and conditions. This is Euphoria Calvin Klein, the new Elixir Collection, featuring three perfume and 10 cents, inspired by a unique orchid accord, paired with vanilla. each with its own distinct attitude, each with its own universe, bold elixir, sensual, woody, addictive, magnetic elixir, sweet and romantic like a lingering touch, solar elixir, a radiant expression of joy, ultra-concentrated for amplified impact and lasting power. Find your euphoria. Discover the euphoria elixir collection by Calvin Klein. In today's back of the brief, Israel crossed a diplomatic

line that others have not been willing to approach, formally recognizing the self-declared Republic of Somaliland. The move triggered backlash and is raising questions about what Jerusalem hopes to gain from the move. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, he moved quickly to sell the decision as practical and forward-looking. He said the Jewish state would move to build cooperation with Somaliland across agricultural and health and technology and economic interests. In a statement, Netanyahu congratulated Somaliland's president, praised as leadership and extended an invitation to visit Israel, a signal that Jerusalem views the recognition less as symbolism and more as the start of a working relationship.

Netanyahu also described the move as being, quote, in the spirit of the Abraham Accords, signed during President Trump's first term. As we've discussed here on the PDB, the 2020 agreement normalized Israel's ties with several Arab states, including the UAE and Bahrain, and helped redraw parts of the region's diplomatic map. By invoking that precedent, Netanyahu appeared to be situating Somaliland's recognition inside a broader playbook, one that treats diplomatic risk as a tool rather than a liability. Somaliland's president welcomed the move, saying his country would join the Abraham Accords and casting the decision as a step toward regional peace.

He says Somaliland is committed to boosting shared prosperity and promoting stability across the Middle East and Africa. But reaction from Mogadishu, as you might imagine, was sharp. Somalia's government condemned Israel's decision as a, quote, unlawful step and a deliberate attack on its sovereignty, rejecting any recognition of Somaliland. In a statement from the Prime Minister's office, Somalia said it would pursue diplomatic and legal measures to defend its territorial integrity. And the pushback spread beyond Somalia. Egypt's foreign minister held calls with counterparts in Turkey and Djibouti to discuss what they described as dangerous developments in the Horn of Africa,

following Israel's announcement. According to Egypt's foreign ministry, the officials reaffirmed their support for Somalia's unity and warned that recognizing breakaway regions poses a threat to security. For background, Somaliland has spent more than three decades operating as a de facto state. It broke away in 1991,

after Somalia's government collapsed into civil war and has since maintained its own government, its currency, and security forces. No country had formally recognized it. that is until now. But beyond the smiles and handshakes between Jerusalem and Somaliland, the timing of Israel's move has drawn some questions. Back in March, Somalia and Somaliland denied receiving a proposal from Israel

to resettle Palestinians from Gaza, with Mogadishu saying it categorically rejected any such idea. And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Monday, the 29th of December. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at BDB. at thefirstTV.com. And, yeah, don't forget to send in your New Year's resolutions. You can send those also to PDB at thefirsttv.com. We'd love to compile a list of our favorite New Year's resolutions from the PDB community.

Now, hopefully, Santa brought you a subscription to our YouTube channel. Maybe he left it under the tree. But if not, just head out over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief. If you like what you see, and how could you not? Well, just hit the subscribe button. Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed. Stay safe.

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