The President's Daily Brief - December 2nd, 2025: Ukraine Strikes Russia’s Shadow Fleet & A Potential War Crime Probe

Episode Date: December 2, 2025

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: Ukraine strikes at the financial core of Russia’s war machine, using naval drones to hit two shadow-fleet tankers that move Moscow’s illicit oil across global markets. A potential scandal emerges in the administration’s counter-narcotics campaign as reports indicate U.S. forces carried out a second strike on a suspected drug boat after survivors fled the initial attack. President Trump’s negotiating team heads to Moscow following what he calls “very productive” talks with Ukrainian officials, with key details still unresolved. And in today’s Back of the Brief— F-16s scramble over Palm Beach to intercept a civilian aircraft that violated the restricted airspace around Mar-a-Lago. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President’s Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief.  YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief TriTails Premium Beef: Get 15% OFF the ‘I’ll Be Home for Christmas’ steak box. Order by Dec 14 at https://TriTailsBeef.com  American Financing: Call American Financing today to find out how customers are saving an avg of $800/mo. NMLS 182334, https://nmlsconsumeraccess.org - APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1881 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit https://www.AmericanFinancing.net/PDB Birch Gold: Text PDB to 989898 and get your free info kit on gold Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right, let's get briefed. First up, Kiev targets the heart of Russia's war financing. Ukrainian naval drones slam into two shadow fleet tankers, disrupting Moscow's covert oil pipeline to global markets. Later in the show, a potential scandal is emerging. In the White House's campaign against drugboats, sources say U.S. forces launched a second strike on a vessel after the first attack left survivors. Now, that could be considered a potential war crime. Plus, Trump's negotiators are heading to the Kremlin,

following what the president calls, quote, very productive discussions with Keeve. The next round could decide whether a deal is actually within reach. Here's a pro tip. It's probably not within reach. As a side note, it doesn't really matter if the U.S. and Ukraine are having productive talks. The only player in this game at this point, matters is, well, yes, you guessed it, Putin. And if he doesn't appear to be willing to make any concessions, well, then you don't have a deal. So unless Keeve in the U.S. are okay with agreeing to the Kremlin's longstanding demands and admitting that they're fine with a policy of appeasement, this peace train isn't leaving the station. And in today's back of the brief,

a tense moment over Palm Beach as F-16s intercept a civilian plane that breached the no-fly zone around Marilago. But first, today's PDB spotlight. Ukraine has opened a new front in the economic war against Moscow, one aimed not at troops or command posts, but at the heart of Russia's sanctions-busting oil network. It's tanker fleet that carries its illicit crude around the world. Ukrainian naval drones hit two tankers from Russia's so-called shadow fleet in the Black Sea. Those vessels were headed to load oil for export. According to a Ukrainian security officials, speaking to Reuters, the strikes targeted tankers named Keros and Virot, both of which have been previously sanctioned and flagged by Western intelligence

services as part of Moscow's illegal oil transport system. Fires broke out on at least one vessel, crews were evacuated, and the official said both tankers were effectively taken out of service. Forbes later reported additional details. These weren't minor hits. Satellite imagery and Ukrainian sources suggest the strikes occurred off the northern Turkish coast. That's well outside Ukrainian territorial waters. That means Ukraine is now extending its maritime drone campaign deeper into the Black Sea, hitting ships that Russia believed were operating safely under the cover of international waters. Keeve has targeted Russia's maritime and oil network in the past, of course,

but this weekend's attack is different. These were Shadowfleet ships, the workhorses that move Russian crude around the world. So you ask why hit these particular tankers? Well, because they're part of a massive sanctions evading machine, one that helps Russia move its oil, earn its revenue, and keep financing the war. And that's where today's backstory comes in, because the phrase shadow fleet gets thrown around a lot, but it's worth taking a moment to explain what it actually is and why it matters.

Since the invasion, the U.S. and its allies impose sanctions on Russian oil, including a price cap designed to limit how much Moscow earns from each barrel that it sells. Now, that cap only works if Western insurers, shippers, and financial institutions refuse to support oil shipments above the allowed price. So Russia built a workaround, a dark, loosely regulated fleet of tankers designed to operate outside the Western system. Now, this shadow fleet is huge. Estimates vary, but depending on the source, Russia now controls or relies, or relies on, on anywhere from 1,000 to nearly 1,400 tankers operating under shell companies and opaque ownership structures. Many are old, some more than 20 or 30 years past their prime. Most are

questionably maintained. Almost all of them carry a level of risk that makes Western insurers deeply uneasy. And that's the point. These ships don't use Western insurers. They don't use Western financing, and they avoid Western oversight altogether. They essentially run dark. They turn transponders, they conduct ship-to-ship transfers to obscure where the oil comes from, they hop between ports with lax oversight, and they deliver Russian crude to countries willing to buy it, often it prices well above the cap. This fleet has been enormously profitable for the Kremlin. Even with sanctions in place, Moscow has been earning tens of billions of dollars annually by selling crude through this parallel system. So from Ukraine's perspective, the logic is, well,

straightforward. If you can't stop the oil at the wellhead, and you can't stop the buyers, then you go after the ships that make the whole scheme possible. You ask, okay, is this going to cripple the shadow fleet? And the answer is no, at least not by itself. A fleet of a thousand tankers won't collapse because two vessels were taken out. But it does send a message. These ships are not off limits. And it raises the operating costs of every tanker in that system. Owners may demand higher payments for risk. Crews may get harder to recruit. insurers, even the gray market ones, may walk away. Ports may be more reluctant to let these vessels in.

All of that erodes the economic viability of Russia's sanctions evasion model. There's another angle, too, and that would be safety. Maritime experts have warned for months that the shadow fleet is a ticking time bomb, old, poorly maintained tankers, moving millions of barrels of crude with minimal oversight. An attack on one of these vessels carries real and fire. environmental risks. And if one of these ships goes down in the Bosphorus or the Dardanelles or another congested shipping lane, the consequences could derail international trade. But from Ukraine's standpoint, the risk is worth it. Moscow's war machine depends on money. The money depends on oil. And oil

depends on the ships that carry it. That shadow fleet is a lifeline, and Ukraine just proved it can be hit. So here's what we should be looking for in the coming days. First off, whether Ukraine repeats this action. A one-off strike is symbolic, but a sustained campaign of these strikes could be very disruptive. Keeve has shown increasing ambition in its maritime operations, and if these drone strikes continue, Russia may be forced to reroute or even idle portions of its export network. Second, weather insurers and port states tighten enforcement. If ports in Turkey, India or the Gulf, begin scrutinizing these ships more closely, that could slow down Russia's exports dramatically.

And finally, whether Moscow escalates its response. Russia has already warned Ukraine against targeting its energy infrastructure, hitting tankers on the high seas. That's a different level of pressure, and the Kremlin may feel compelled to respond. All right, coming up next. A reported second U.S. strike on a suspected drug boat sparks calls for an investigation. And Trump's team heads to the Kremlin following discussions with Ukrainian officials. I'll be right back.

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Welcome back to the PDB. We're now learning that the U.S. military went back for a second strike on a drug-smuggling boat in the Caribbean after the first blast didn't kill everyone on board. It's a decision pulling Washington's attention back to that September operation. According to people familiar with a mission, the 2nd of September strike, which opened the military's campaign against narco-terrorists, didn't unfold as the Pentagon first described it. And what's becoming clear is that the controversy isn't about the first blast at all. It's about the second one. After the initial strike disabled the boat but left two drug runners alive in the water, American forces circled back and fired again, killing the survivors and sinking the vessel. As our regular

listeners will remember, the White House announced the Caribbean military mission the day that that happened. President Donald Trump framed it as part of a tougher posture toward narco-terrorist networks tied to Venezuela. Groups that the White House contends have fueled tens of thousands of American deaths. But the administration never acknowledged a second strike or that survivors were targeted, and that omission has sparked this potential scandal. Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, denied ever-ordering commanders to ensure no one survived, pushing back on the Washington Post's recent reporting that he instructed so, calling the allegations, quote, fabricated inflammatory and derogatory. President Trump backed the secretary, stating that

Hegsteth assured him he, quote, did not order the death of those two men. Still, the Washington Post maintains that Hegseth verbally urged commanders beforehand to make sure no one on the boat survived the initial strike. According to the Post, when two individuals remained alive in the water, the operational commander ordered a second hit to follow the Secretary of War's direction. And people briefed on the mission, told CNN the military news survivors were present before the follow-up blast. But Pentagon officials have presented a different rationale, telling reporters and lawmakers the second strike was carried out to sink the damaged boat so it would not become a navigational hazard. However, sources familiar with the briefing saying, this is the only known

case where survivors were deliberately killed. And that distinction is what's driving the legal questions. Some legal experts argue that killing survivors or individuals no longer posing a threat violates the law of armed conflict, and those concerns exist within the Pentagon as well. Admiral Alvin Holsey, the head of U.S. Southern Command, raised legal doubts during a tense meeting with Heggseth and Joint Chiefs Chair General Dan Cain and later offered to step down. He will leave his post in December, and it's just a year into his tenure. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers from both parties are demanding more clarity. The Republican-led Senate and housed Armed Services committees have launched separate inquiries, promising, quote, vigorous oversight and pressing the Pentagon on how the

September double-tap strike fits within the rules governing this campaign. The committees also point to the contrast with recent missions, such as an October strike, where U.S. forces rescued survivors and repatriated them. The Trump administration says the campaign rests on firm legal ground. Administration officials cite a classified Justice Department opinion that designates more than two dozen drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. It's a determination lawyers say authorizes lethal force when traffickers pose an imminent threat. Trump has made as an administration's position clear, saying last month, quote, I think we're just going to kill people that bring drugs into our country, end quote. Despite the political backlash, the campaign continues.

Pentagon officials say the U.S. has carried out more than 20 strikes on vessels tied to drug trafficking networks since September, killing more than 80 people. The administration says every mission is lawful, tightly vetted, and aims squarely at narco-terrorists that it says are responsible for staggering levels of American drug deaths. So as the House and Senate committees move forward with their inquiries, the White House says the mission can't lose any momentum, pledging to push on so long as the narco-terror networks still feed drugs into the country. All right. It's shifting to peace talks. President Trump is sounding optimistic, saying there's a, quote, good chance at a deal between Russia and Ukraine. But the road ahead, of course, runs through the Kremlin, where unresolved territorial demands still must be dealt with. After a weekend of what Washington called, quote, very productive stateside talks with Ukraine, Trump's team is treating this next step almost, like a stress test, the moment when they'll find out whether the progress on paper can survive

a face-to-face with Russian President Putin. Well, of course it can survive if the intention is to give Putin what he wants. Keev, meanwhile, is trying to keep the momentum going. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described the U.S. talks in a post on X as, quote, very constructive, even as he acknowledged that the toughest issues are still sitting on the table. And the shift over just a few days is noticeable. The original 28-point peace plan that rattled Ukrainian officials last month by favoring Moscow was gutted in Geneva to a 19-point version that they can actually keep negotiating over. That's a change in strategy that key credits to President Trump's envoys. Those Geneva revisions set off a rapid diplomatic sprint. In Florida over the weekend,

Whitkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner, huddled with the Ukrainian delegation that had just been reshuffled after Keeves' top negotiator resigned amid the country's ongoing corruption scandal. Rubio told reporters that, quote, so much work remains, but framed the current plan as another step toward aligning both sides around a workable plan. Ukraine's team, consisting of national security advisor Rustam Umorov, the chief of staff of the armed forces in Kiev's deputy intelligence chief, seemed to agree. Umorov said the talks produced, quote, progress. But the central obstacle hasn't changed. That would be territorial control. Both Moscow and Kiev acknowledge that it's the core issue, the one that will ultimately

determine whether a peace deal is even possible. The two sides remain worlds apart on what territorial compromise even looks like. Ukraine says giving up land would tear the country apart politically, and Zelensky has tried to push the issue directly with Trump instead of locking in any commitments. Russia, on the other hand, has shown no willingness to bend, and for the Kremlin, well, they want the Donbass. And Trump has been blunt about the complications, saying Ukraine's, quote, corruption situation isn't helping the process, but still told reporters aboard Air Force One that there's a chance, quote, we could make a deal. The president has made it clear her only needs Zelensky or Putin once those final gaps are small enough to close, a sign he's

keeping personal diplomacy and reserve for maximum leverage. But Putin for now is sticking to his script. He repeated that fighting will only end when Ukrainian forces withdraw from Russian occupied territories, warning he'll seize them, quote, by force if they don't, despite front-line gains moving at a snail's pace and the casualty count climbing. For what it's worth, if Kiev is strong-armed into accepting Putin's territorial demands, along with his insistence that Ukraine limit its future military and never join NATO, then yes, you can get a peace deal. It's called appeasement. Otherwise, the option is to increase the sanctions on Russia, further squeeze their economy,

and create a situation where Putin can either come to the table and accept a deal or risk losing his grip on power. That imagined middle ground where compromise happens? Well, that's not a place where Putin operates. All right. Coming up in the back of the brief, USF-16s scrambled near Mar-Lago, firing flares to intercept a civilian aircraft that strayed into restricted airspace. I'll have those details when we come back. Hey, Mike Baker here. Well, now the holidays will, of course, be here before you know it.

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where U.S. F-16s were scrambled over the weekend to intercept a civilian aircraft that wandered into temporarily restricted airspace. near Mar-a-Lago. Norad says the incident happened late Saturday afternoon, just after 4.20 p.m. When a small plane crossed into the security perimeter that was active while President Trump was staying at his Palm Beach residence. According to officials, the pilot did not respond to standard radio calls, which triggered the next step in the playbook. That would be two F-16s launched from nearby bases to make visual contact. As they approached, the jets deployed flares. That's a common tactic used to get a pilot's attention when radio communication fails. The civilian aircraft eventually

responded and was guided out of the restricted zone without further issue. According to authorities, no hostile intent is suspected here. In fact, Norad stresses that most of these episodes are accidental, usually the result of a pilot misunderstanding or ignoring temporary flight restrictions, or not checking the day's notices to airmen. But those mistakes still matter because restricted airspace is exactly that. Restricted. Around any sitting president or former president under Secret Service protection, these zones are enforced aggressively and without delay. If an aircraft crosses the line, the military responds, even if the ultimate outcome is benign. If this story sounds familiar, it's because incidents like this happen more often than most people realize. Over the past few years,

jets have been scrambled multiple times near Mar-a-Lago for the same reason. Civilian pilots entering the security ring, either by accident or carelessness. Each time, the response is nearly identical. Intercept jets, flares, visual communication, escort. It's a routine mission for NORAD, but one that always carries a small margin of risk, fast-moving fighter jets, startled civilian pilots, and very little time to make decisions. Officials say there were no injuries, no damage, and no threat to the public on Saturday. The aircraft landed safely at a nearby airport, and authorities are still determining why the pilot ended up inside the restricted zone in the first place. The FAA may take administrative action depending on the final report.

And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Tuesday, the 2nd of December. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at PDB at thefirsttv.com. And if you're jones and for an ad-free experience, well, you can get that. Just become a premium member of the president's daily brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB afternoon bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool. Special guests, get tickets Thursday, May 7th at Olivia Rodrigo.com.